NBA Playoffs 2026- NBA Finals Picks Game 1-7 (Wednesday 3rd June-Friday 19th June)

Twelve months ago, the 2025 NBA Finals began with the main focus for this writer being the narrow exit suffered by the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals.

During the course of an up and down regular season, the Knicks looked like a team that may come up short again and at 2-1 down in the First Round of the NBA Playoffs, the critics were sharpening the knives.

Instead of crumbling to a very early exit, the New York Knicks rallied and they are on a Playoff heater and now return to the NBA Finals for the first time in 27 years!

History has a tendency to repeat itself and so it is perhaps fitting that the New York Knicks will be facing the San Antonio Spurs, the team that beat the Knicks 4-1 in the 1999 NBA Finals.

While the Knicks have been crushing all who have stood in front of them, the San Antonio Spurs had to dig deep to beat the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder, but it would be a poor excuse for a young team to speak about fatigue having last played on Saturday. There have been plenty of emotion put into reaching the NBA Finals, but inexperience is a bigger factor in the NBA Finals for this young core.

The NBA have to be really pleased with the Finals match up at a time when the Football World Cup is due to kick off in the United States- Victor Wembanyama is trying to become the face of the League and going up against a New York Knicks team that have given the entire City a huge energy boost should make for fascinating viewing for as long as these Finals last.

NBA Finals 2026- San Antonio Spurs vs New York Knicks (June 3rd-19th)

Wednesday 3rd June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Pick: Earlier in the season, the New York Knicks upset the San Antonio Spurs to win the NBA Cup and the two teams have fought their way through the Playoffs to set up a rematch for a much bigger prize.

Twelve years have passed since the San Antonio Spurs last won the NBA Championship, but the Draft Pick of Victor Wembanyama was seen as a pivotal moment in a new era. The Spurs have to be given credit for other choices they have made and this is a young group that could create a dynasty in the years ahead having shown what they can do when beating the defending Champions Oklahoma City Thunder in seven games in the Western Conference Finals.

That victory means the Spurs arrive at the NBA Finals with a lot of belief and it is San Antonio that will get to host the first two games of the Series.

One of the big questions for this young San Antonio team is how they will handle the pressure of playing in the NBA Finals after missing six straight Playoff seasons before this one. Some of those questions have been answered in beating the Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder in the Playoffs, but the NBA Finals is considered a significantly different experience and some of the biggest names in NBA history have suffered in the first appearance on this stage.

Victor Wembanyama is the key for the Spurs and he cannot afford to struggle- big performances in the four wins secured over the Oklahoma City Thunder proved decisive and it is no surprise that the Thunder won the three games when Wemby was not at his best.

He can be a monster factor on both ends of the floor, but it is also important that the other players on the court contribute as the Spurs look to keep the New York Knicks waiting for a Championship.

Fifty-three years have passed since the New York Knicks last won the NBA Championship and twenty-seven since they last played in the NBA Finals.

Much of the intervening time has been a mess, but Leon Rose has to be given a lot of credit for the way he has constructed this roster- the signing of Jalen Brunson has proved to be a masterstroke, but deals to bring in the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Josh Hart, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges have all strengthened the roster.

Throw in Mitchell Robinson, who should be recovered from a pinky injury that had some fearing he would miss some of the NBA Finals, and the likes of Landry Shamet and Miles McBride from the bench and this New York Knicks team will feel they can match up with anyone.

It helps that they have won eleven Playoff games in a row and by huge margins as they completed back to back sweeps of the Philadelphia 76ers and Cleveland Cavaliers. That means the team have had eight days of rest, while the San Antonio Spurs have had to play three games in that time, and the New York Knicks will be looking to make that rest count.

There is no doubting that there is going to be a lot of pressure on the New York Knicks, but they will feel they match up well with the San Antonio Spurs and the three regular season games between the teams back that up. The Knicks won twice and in good fashion, while they were only narrowly beaten in San Antonio and the New York team can make the adjustments within the game to change the flow of the momentum.

The Knicks do match up well with the San Antonio Spurs, but the same will be felt by the Western Conference Champions.

New York are well rested, but you do have to wonder if that will mean another slow start- yes, they beat the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 1 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but it should not be forgotten that the Knicks were 22 Points behind in the Fourth Quarter and Cleveland blew a big opportunity.

That was after another seven games had been needed in the previous Series and this San Antonio Spurs team have had a bit more recovery time compared with Cleveland.

Being at home in Game 1 is also a big advantage and this is a NBA Finals featuring two teams who will want to spot up shooters at the three point arc- if the Knicks are a little more rusty than rested, the San Antonio Spurs may take advantage and Game 1s of recent NBA Finals have been dominated by the home team.

Hosts who have also been asked to lay at least 4.5 points in NBA Finals have also been on a very strong run and the feeling is that the rhythm of the San Antonio Spurs may see them get into the lead and manage that much better than Cleveland did against the New York Knicks.

Friday 5th June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 2 Pick: In the middle of the Third Quarter, it felt like the New York Knicks were struggling to find the right rhythm to get back into Game 1 of the NBA Finals and the long Playoff run of wins looked to be coming to an end.

However, this has proven to be a team that has forgotten how to lose and the Knicks continue to come up with big plays in the Fourth Quarter, much as they have all season.

Captain Clutch, Jalen Brunson, made the big plays late in the Fourth Quarter that ultimately helped the New York Knicks overcome a big deficit and take the 1-0 lead in the Series, but they will be expecting a big effort from the San Antonio Spurs in Game 2. All season the Spurs have bounced back when losing and this is a young core that have listened to the adjustments that have been made in the Playoff run so there will remain a confidence and a belief that they can turn things back around.

Mitch Johnson has done a fine job as Head Coach, but he will have had to listen to some criticism for the way he oversaw the Fourth Quarter- Dylan Harper was not given the minutes that his first half performance deserved and the likes of De'Aaron Fox really did not reach the level that you would expect of someone of his quality.

Even Victor Wembanyama was critical of his own effort in Game 1, but this is a player who has recovered and come out and made a statement after a poor showing and everyone associated with the Knicks will expect that on Friday night.

There was much to like about the way the Knicks kept battling, but New York will also believe there is much more to come from themselves- Brunson was immense late in the Fourth Quarter yet again, but overall he will believe he needs to be more efficient and everyone will be hoping that the early knee and ankle injuries suffered by the best player on the team are not going to become a problem.

Both teams struggled from the three point range, but having that Game 1 under the belt and limited rest between the first two games of the NBA Finals should mean shooters are in better rhythm. Open looks were not knocked down, but the Spurs and Knicks will continue trying to get to open shooters and expect themselves to be better.

Defensive adjustments may be made by the San Antonio Spurs to make Wembanyama more effective after allowing the New York Knicks to get into the paint with real success in Game 1. The Spurs will also look for a more efficient game from Wemby who was 6-21 in Game 1 and San Antonio are still in a position where hosts have tended to play well, as the Oklahoma City Thunder did in Game 2 after dropping the opener of the NBA Finals twelve months ago.

It is a League where narrow margins make up the bigger picture and the San Antonio Spurs struggled to make the shots presented to them- they will want to create more turnovers than they did in the second half of Game 1, while the Head Coach will likely shift up the Defensive schemes and turn to the hot hands a little quicker than he did in the opener.

Losing is a blow for the Spurs, but they are still capable of earning a split of the first two games, but this New York Knicks team is playing with momentum and a confidence that will be difficult to shake.

The expectation is that the Spurs will make the adjustments to bounce back and the three point shooters are likely to be better with the looks they get in Game 2 having missed some good chances in Game 1. All season San Antonio have done that and the outright winner continues to dominate in the NBA Playoffs in 2026 at a record rate.

Being wrong would not be difficult to accept as a fan, but the feeling is that everything will be tied up when these teams meet in a NBA Finals game at Madison Square Garden for the first time since 1999 on Monday.

Monday 8th June

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Game 3 Pick: For just the third time in the history of the NBA Finals, a road team has won the opening two games and the previous two times it happened, those teams went on to win the NBA Championship.

As you can imagine, excitement has soared through the roof in New York City after the home town Knicks returned with a 2-0 lead from the business trip to Texas.

Fifty-three years since winning the NBA Championship for the last time, the New York Knicks return home with a big lead and with two games to be played at Madison Square Garden. Even a split would be seen as a positive in the Series setting, but the Knicks have won thirteen Playoff games in a row and they do not want to lose any momentum.

Experience at key times in the Fourth Quarter have been key in both opening wins and it is certainly the inexperience of the San Antonio Spurs that has proved to be costly.

They had chances to win both opening games, but the Spurs have made critical, fatal mistakes at the worst times and Victor Wembanyama will have been hearing all about his over the last couple of days.

With the game tied, Wembanyama picked up the Defensive Rebound and the Spurs in a position to get the final shot of the game- the entire NBA world would have gasped when he inexplicably decided to throw the ball forward to Stephon Castle, who had already turned his head to get up the court and move into a position to open up the Offensive plays for the last shot of the game.

Victor Wembanya's turnover proved to be decisive with Jalen Brunson picking up the ball, earning the foul and sinking one of two Free Throws to help the New York Knicks into the lead. Even then, Wemby had a chance to win the game for the Spurs, but missed a decent look at the basket and San Antonio travel looking to at least earn one more shot at home.

Game 3 is huge for the Spurs- no NBA team has won a Playoff Series from 0-3 behind, but the young team will have to find a way to dig in and cool what is going to be a raucous Madison Square Garden crowd.

It is a big ask as they look to make adjustments, but the Spurs will still believe they have played well enough to have found a way to win both games.

The New York Knicks will be confident as long as they are within striking range in the Fourth Quarter, but this is going to be a potentially pressurised environment with the team able to reach out and touch the trophy. They have shown so much character and conviction in the play throughout this post-season run and the Knicks continue to defy the odds, but they are favourites in Game 3 and that is going to bring a different kind of pressure on the team.

Jalen Brunson has found some big buckets late, but the Knicks still need more from him, while the way they have played on the Defensive side of the court continues to impress.

The Knicks are capable, but so are the Spurs and the best way to approach Game 3 is backing the under to hit for a third time in the 2026 Finals.

In recent seasons, the under has been the big winner in NBA Finals games and both the Knicks and Spurs have shown they can be very effective on that side of the court, which has made life tougher for the shooters as they continue to fight through contested lanes.

There have been stretches of misses throughout the first two games of the NBA Finals and that may be the best approach to take to Game 3 as the Series shifts to the East Coast.

Wednesday 10th June

San Antonio Spurs @ New York Knicks Game 4 Pick: The energy around New York City had been electric after winning both games on the road in the NBA Finals, but that perhaps contributed to a few nerves for the home town Knicks early in Game 3.

Ir was the first NBA Finals game played at Madison Square Garden in twenty-seven years and that meant a huge increase in ticket prices- some have suggested that the raw fans being priced out contributed to a less than raucous atmosphere inside The Garden and allowed the San Antonio Spurs to settle in during this business trip as they look to drag themselves back into the Series.

Even then, it was another close, competitive game and that has to be the expectation around Game 4, which feels hugely pivotal.

If the Knicks win, a 3-1 lead looks like one that will lead to the end of the fifty-three year wait to win the NBA Championship.

However, a Spurs win not only levels up the NBA Finals, but it likely sees the oddsmakers shift back into making San Antonio favourite.

One day of rest between Game 3 and Game 4 does make things challenging, especially for the San Antonio Spurs who asked the key contributors to do some heavy lifting on Monday to ensure they were not being asked to become the first team in NBA history to win a best of seven Series from 3-0 behind. That does mean fatigue is a potential issue against a New York Knicks team who have a bit more depth that Head Coach Mike Brown feels he can rely upon to make important contributions.

The energy will be a little more nervy around the New York Knicks after seeing the thirteen game Playoff winning run ended and it is important to make a more decisive start.

Mike Brown has also been highly critical of the officiating in the last couple of games and that is something that could be on the mind of those taking charge in Game 4. There was a huge disparity in Free Throws attempted and the Knicks will look to attack what may be a young, slightly fatigued team that put so much into Monday night.

Game 3 comfortably moved past the total. but the Fourth Quarter only featured 43 points combined as tiredness of both physical and mental nature perhaps began to take its toll.

That could carry over into Game 4 and backing the under is the play in what looks a very tough game from which to pick a winner.

Saturday 13th June

New York Knicks @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: Big comebacks are a part of any sporting field, but when they happen in the Finals of any of those sports, they go down in history.

Game 4 of the 2026 NBA Finals will sit alongside the New England Patriots recovery from 28-3 down in the Super Bowl as the most improbable of comebacks and arguably the New York Knicks win over San Antonio Spurs surpasses anything that has come before.

Trailing by 29 points and looking lost at both ends of the court, the New York Knicks created the biggest comeback in NBA Finals history to steal Game 4 from under the noses of the San Antonio Spurs and move to one win from a first Championship since 1973.

For the second time in the NBA Finals, the San Antonio Spurs have to be wondering how they have managed to lose a game in the final seconds, although this one will feel worse than Game 2 considering the lead that had been built.

De'Aaron Fox will have to accept the criticism that has come his way- the turnovers in the Third and Fourth Quarter were pretty poor, but it is the abject decision making from a veteran to try and score a basket with the Spurs up by a point and with the shot clock off that has garnered most attention. The absolute play is to drag the ball out and get the Knicks to foul, but Fox made a ridiculously poor choice and ultimately that was a key reason the Spurs ended up falling.

However, the blame cannot be attached to one play and one player- the Spurs had a huge lead but scored just 30 points in the second half having put 76 points on the board in the first half. Poor clock management and a lack of conviction in trying to get to the rim against a team in foul trouble cannot be ignored, while Head Coach Mitch Johnson has to be questioned for the lack of Timeouts used to try and refocus the team as the lead began to dwindle.

Of course you have to credit the New York Knicks for fighting back- that makes them 5-3 in the last two post-seasons when trailing by 20 points, but like the Game 1 win in the Eastern Conference Finals, the Knicks needed help from the visiting team.

Never giving up is a real testament to the character of the players, but no one is taking anything for granted just yet and each of the four games could have easily swung the other way.

Two days of rest between games means physical fatigue is less of a concern, but you do have to wonder how much the San Antonio Spurs have left as they return home needing to win three games to win the NBA Championship. At 2-2 you would have made them favourites, but the entire situation of Game 4 means this young team are going to have grow up really quickly if they are going to force a return to New York City and Madison Square Garden.

It is really hard to factor how the Spurs are feeling, although they bounced back from blowing Game 2 in disastrous fashion to win Game 3 on the road.

You have to expect an early push from the Spurs, but the New York Knicks continue to show that they will not be cowed by a quick punch and instead will have plenty left in the tank to fight back. The Knicks did put in a huge second half effort to win Game 4 and they will also have to deal with what could be an emotional letdown and so picking a side is perhaps not as easy as it may feel.

For some the momentum is such with the Knicks that the points being given to them is very appealing, but the better approach may be going to back to the under market.

It was an incredibly fortunate winner in Game 4 considering how well the Spurs shot in the first half, but that was a level that was always going to be hard to sustain.

The expectation is that better clock management is going to be the key for both teams and that may help produce a shortened game, while the officials have been criticised for some of the fouls that have been given.

There is every chance that the NBA Finals is concluded on Saturday, but the Spurs will have something to say about that and two teams playing after the emotions of Wednesday night may not be able to combine to surpass this points total. Both have been very good Defensively and been able to slow the other down for stretches and that could be the case in Game 5 with three of the first four games in the NBA Finals all finishing below the total set.

MY PICKS: 03/06 San Antonio Spurs - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

05/06 San Antonio Spurs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

08/06 New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs Under 215.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

10/06 New York Knicks-San Antonio Spurs Under 216.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

13/06 San Antonio Spurs-New York Knicks Under 216.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 01-3, - 2.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 9-2, + 6.24 Units (11 Units Staked, + 56.73% Yield)

Second Round: 5-8, - 3.45 Units (13 Units Staked, - 26.54% Yield)

First Round: 15-17, - 3.28 Units (32 Units Staked, - 10.25% Yield)

NBA Playoffs 2025- Conference Finals Picks Game 1-7 (Tuesday 20th May-Tuesday 2nd June)

The top Seed in the Western Conference may have needed all seven games, but what matters is that the Oklahoma City Thunder are still on course to win the NBA Championship for the first time.

They arrived in Oklahoma City having previously been the Seattle Supersonics, who had won a NBA Championship, but the Thunder have been close in their current form without taking home all of the honours. With a team as young as they are, this could be the start of the dynasty, although the other three teams still chasing a ring will have something to say about that.

And all of the other three can be considered as something of a surprise.

The Indiana Pacers and Minnesota Timberwolves may feel that is a harsh assessment considering both played in the Conference Finals in 2024 and have clearly learned valuable lessons from their experiences. Both knocked off injury hit opponents in five games in the Second Round so should be well rested and they will use what happened in 2024 to try and move a step closer to the NBA Championship in 2025.

Neither of those teams have won a NBA Championship before either, and it has been a long time since the Indiana Pacers made the NBA Finals.

So that leaves the final place for my New York Knicks who are playing in the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since 2000 and who are looking to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 1999. This is a big market franchise that have not won the NBA Championship since 1973, but fans may feel this is about as good a chance as they have had in many a year with both of the top Seeds in the Eastern Conference eliminated.

As with previous Playoff threads, Games 1-4 will be placed in this one and any Picks from Games 5-7 will be in a new thread to keep things as tidy as possible.

After a couple of strong years, it has been a tough Playoff run in 2025 and may need an almost perfect run to turn things around from now until the end of the season. There has been some frustration to the Picks selected,  but it happens and the focus has to be on having as good a run as possible in the Conference Finals and see the lay of the land at the end of that.

NBA Playoffs 2025- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (May 20th-27th)

Tuesday 20th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 1 Pick: If the regular season is anything to go by, the Western Conference Finals could be an incredibly competitive Series.

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Oklahoma City Thunder split four regular season games and they were largely competitive affairs- the Thunder had two wins by 7 and 8 points respectively, while the Timberwolves won a game by 15 points and the other by just 3 points after Overtime.

Having a few more days of rest could be important for the Timberwolves after easing past the Golden State Warriors in five games. On the other side, the Oklahoma City Thunder just completed a Game 7 win over the Denver Nuggets and will have one day to rest and prepare for this opening game of the Western Conference Finals, which is far from ideal for any team, even one as good as the Thunder.

A positive for the Number 1 Seed is that they were not really taxed in Game 7 of the Second Round Series and that will have allowed key players to earn some rest. The blowout win over the Denver Nuggets also reminded the rest of the NBA of the depth that Oklahoma City can lean on as they bid to reach the NBA Finals.

Experience can still be a factor and that is where the Timberwolves may be able to lean on 2024 and use that disappointing Western Conference Finals defeat to the Dallas Mavericks to inspire better in 2025. They were the hosts of those Conference Finals, which would have hurt Minnesota even more, but getting back here twelve months later as the Number 6 Seed in the West will just remind the players of how good they actually are.

Winning Game 7 and then moving into a new Series is a tough spot for the Thunder to be in, but even more so when you think of the lack of rest they are getting.

They will also be in a tough spot with the spread- Conference Finals favourites being asked to lay at least five points are now 1-12 against the spread across the last two Playoffs and even with the depth the Thunder have, it could be a big ask on limited rest to be ready to push past this number set for Game 1.

With Anthony Edwards and Julius Randle looking good, the Timberwolves have been a good team to back with the points during this Playoff run and they could begin with a cover, if not the outright upset to take away home court. They have matched up well with the Thunder throughout the regular season and Minnesota may have been anticipating this opponent for the Western Conference Finals and so being underprepared is not really going to be an excuse that they can lean on.

Opposing the Thunder and their ability to blowout teams is not an easy decision, but the spot looks a good one for the Minnesota Timberwolves to keep this one very competitive, and especially with this many points being given to them.

Wednesday 21st May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 1 Pick: Considering the Eastern Conference Finals were set on Friday evening and the Western Conference Finals on Sunday, you think it would have made more sense for the former to get underway first. Instead the Indiana Pacers and New York Knicks will meet in the post-season for a second season in a row, but with even more on the line than when they met in 2024.

Last year the teams met in the Second Round and it was for the place in the Eastern Conference Finals with the injury hit New York Knicks having nothing left in Game 7.

This time the Knicks are looking much healthier and they have just beaten the defending Champions Boston Celtics in six games and New York's expectations have been raised significantly. It has been over fifty years since the New York Knicks last won the NBA Championship, and twenty-six years since they last competed in the NBA Finals, but the fans have seen the top two Seeds dumped out and the Knicks will be hosting the Eastern Conference Finals.

There will be a lot of respect for the Indiana Pacers, not only for the Playoff defeat to this team last season, but for the way the Pacers have seen off the Milwaukee Bucks and Cleveland Cavaliers for the loss of just two games. Over the last four months of the regular season, the Pacers were playing about as well as any team, but they have been satisfied going under the radar.

Depth on the Pacers roster has been key and they have made strong starts to each of the last two Series by winning the first two games to take a serious grip of those Series. In the last Round they upset the Cavaliers, the Number 1 Seed, twice on the road and the Indiana Pacers have a team that will push the tempo and not be afraid to give the ball to the hot hand.

Tyrese Haliburton will be heading to Madison Square Garden expecting to be the focus of the attention for the New York Knicks fans, but that may suit him if it allows his team-mates to flourish. The Pacers have shown that winning on the road is not something they are afraid of doing after beating Cleveland in all three road games in the Second Round and Indiana are a very dangerous opponent.

Confidence should not be an issue for the New York Knicks after crushing the Boston Celtics in Game 6 at Madison Square Garden and the team are so much healthier than when losing to the Pacers last season. They have shown grit to come through tough moments in the Series wins over both the Celtics and Detroit Pistons, while New York did win two of the three regular season games with the Indiana Pacers.

In the Second Round last year, the New York Knicks won the opening two games of the Series before injuries saw them worn down with four losses in the next five games to be downed in seven. There will be an appreciation of the fact that the Pacers have shown a physical style to break down the last two opponents, while an up-tempo Indiana approach has just made it tough to keep up with them on the scoreboard.

Picking a Game 1 winner is not easy on the spread- the Pacers look to be getting enough points to keep this competitive, but the Knicks did win the opening two games of that PlayOff Series last year.

Instead it may be wise to pick Game 1 to go 'over' the total set- this is a number that would have been covered in the last two regular season games between the teams and missed by just a Field Goal in the first. In the Playoff Series played last year, three of the four games played at Madison Square Garden went 'over' the total and the teams have shown enough Offensive power to believe this one will do the same to open the 2025 Eastern Conference Finals.

With the pace that Indiana use, there should be plenty of turnovers and transitional baskets, which can move this game into a position to finish with enough points to cover what is a big number on paper.

Friday 23rd May

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 2 Pick: The 2025 NBA Playoffs have featured plenty of games where huge leads have been wasted and comebacks have been frequent.

Even with that in mind, the New York Knicks were stunned in Game 1 on Wednesday night when leading the Indiana Pacers by 17 Points in the Fourth Quarter and eventually being beaten in Overtime. In the last twenty-seven years, 1414 times a team has led by at least 9 points into the final minute of a Playoff Game and all of them had won, until the Indiana Pacers became the first to overcome monumental odds.

This means the fans are going to be needed to be fired up and right behind the New York Knicks as they bid to avoid falling 0-2 behind in the Eastern Conference Finals before having to head to Indiana for two games. There will be a real disappointment within the Knicks locker room, but they cannot ignore the fact that they were able to do much of what they would have wanted Offensively and can be more effective as long as Jalen Brunson can avoid foul trouble for the second game in a row.

New York have already shown plenty of resolve in this Playoff run and they can bounce back, even if the Indiana Pacers deserve a lot of respect for the way they have performed. The Pacers are forcing teams to play how they want to play and ultimately Indiana have shown off the depth to wear down those who face them.

Tyrese Haliburton made some huge shots, but was really well supported by Aaron Nesmith in the fightback and upset. Doing that for a second time in a row on the road will be challenging and teams that have lost games have tended to recover in the next game during recent Conference Finals.

This is a big spread considering the Indiana Offensive capabilities, but the Knicks have to believe they can be more consistent when trying to hold onto a big lead. Some of the players feel they lost some of the focus when looking to close out Game 1 and the situation should mean that is not going to happen again and this time the Knicks can recover and cover the spread set to level up the Eastern Conference Finals.

Saturday 24th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 3 Pick: There are still six games from which the Minnesota Timberwolves need four wins if they are going to be playing in the NBA Finals. but the pressure begins in Game 3. Twice in a row, a competitive first half was replaced by a second half in which the Timberwolves struggled and they are now 2-0 down in the Series.

The NBA remains the only US Sport in which a Playoff has not been lost when a team has moved into a 3-0 lead and that is the prospect that the Minnesota Timberwolves have to face.

It would be tough to beat any opponent from that position, but to try and beat the Number 1 Seed Oklahoma City Thunder who have looked right amongst the elite over the last couple of seasons is going to be that much more of a mountain to climb.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has just been awarded the regular season MVP award and he has been in strong form in the Western Conference Finals, but also being well backed by some of the team-mates around him. Perhaps most importantly is the fact that the Oklahoma City Thunder feel like they are wearing down the Timberwolves with their Defensive scheme and intensity.

Turnovers are becoming very important for the Thunder, although you have to factor in how much more difficult it will be when playing on the road. They are not the Number 1 Seed for no reason though and Oklahoma City have won some tough games already on the road, while the momentum is with them with teams leading 2-0 having a 4-1 record against the spread in the last five times this situation has come up in the Western Conference.

Minnesota can expect Julius Randle to have a stronger game after an underwhelming Game 2 and the role players should be better at home. Anthony Edwards tried to put the team on his back, but he will need support and the Timberwolves can comfort themselves from the fact that teams that have suffered blowout losses in Game 2 have bounced back in Game 3 in the recent Conference Finals played.

It will still need something special from the hosts to do that and the Thunder look to have all of the answers right now.

The expectation has to be this will be more competitive right through to the back end of the Fourth Quarter, but the Thunder have shown their ability to win clutch games during this Playoff run and can do the same here.

Small road favourites have been on a poor run in the Conference Finals, but so have big favourites and that did not stop the Oklahoma City Thunder covering twice in this Series already.

Sunday 25th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 3 Pick: When you blow a game like the New York Knicks did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, there is a pressure to bounce back immediately. That pressure is only intensified if you are hosting the first two games of a Series, but the Knicks were not able to make enough stops in the second half of Game 2 and all of a sudden things have gone pear shaped in Gotham.

The Eastern Conference Finals shifts to Indiana for two games with the Pacers once again 2-0 ahead, just as they were in the Second Round upset of the Cleveland Cavaliers.

All credit has to be given to the Pacers- they continued to fight in Game 1 to produce a historic Playoff comeback, while they looked the stronger team in the second half in Game 2 as they held off the New York Knicks to take a stranglehold of this Series.

However, in saying all of that, Head Coach Rick Carlisle is extremely experienced and he is sure to be reminding his players that this Series could easily be 2-0 to the New York Knicks with a fractionally different bounce of the ball. As much as the Pacers will feel pretty happy with the Offensive production, Indiana will also know they have had issues stopping the New York Knicks and so this Eastern Conference Finals still feels alive.

Much like the Minnesota Timberwolves, the pressure is also on the New York Knicks to avoid having to become the first team in NBA history to win a Playoff Series from 0-3 behind. They are trying to overcome recent history where the team leading 2-0 in the Conference Finals has covered in 80% of the last five Game 3s played, while the Knicks have to make some adjustments to see if they can do anything to cool the Indiana shooters down.

Karl-Anthony Towns being left on the bench in the Fourth Quarter of Game 2 was not a good look for a player who has come up short in big Playoff moments in his career. He will need to bounce back on Sunday if Mitchell Robinson has any kind of restriction around the ankle he seemed to roll in Game 2 and this looks to be a tough test for New York, where expectations have grown massively since upsetting the Boston Celtics in the Second Round.

Game 2 ended a single point below the total line set and that does mean that games in the Conference Finals that have been decided by single digits have been followed up by the 'under' producing a 21-12 winning record. It has given some pause for thought, but the absence or restriction of Robinson should make it that much more comfortable for Indiana to score points and the Knicks are going to have to keep up.

One day of rest between games is perhaps another factor, but these teams are still pushing the pace and backing them to score at least one more point combined in Game 3 compared with Game 2 looks the right play.

Monday 26th May

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Minnesota Timberwolves Game 4 Pick: Well, that escalated quickly!

After back to back dominant wins to open the Western Conference Finals, the Oklahoma City Thunder looked to have all of the momentum in the Series ahead of Game 3. However, the Minnesota Timberwolves came out with a huge amount of intensity and thumped the Thunder early and often and the game was never really close just minutes after tip off.

The Timberwolves are going to be feeling that much better ahead of Game 4 as they look to level the Western Conference Finals before having to take another shot at winning in Oklahoma City.

There is still some pressure on Minnesota who would be facing an elimination game later this week if they are beaten at home and they have to expect a much more aggressive and focused Number 1 Seed that played here on Saturday. It will mean the role players need to continue shooting the ball that much better at home than they have on the road, which has been a feature of Minnesota's Playoff run, and they will be hoping Julius Randle has had his one and only poor game in the Western Conference Finals.

It was a poor game from the Oklahoma City Thunder, perhaps their worst of the season, and the starters were all given the Fourth Quarter off. A reaction is going to be needed from a young team that has had their issues on the road, but the Thunder have shown their capabilities all season and will likely be that much more focused after being embarrassed on a national stage.

They should have a bit more Defensive intensity, which was severely lacking in Game 3, but this could be another of the Western Conference Finals games to end up going 'over' the line set.

Three point shooting has been important and the road shooting woes of both teams has to be a concern, but the tempo may see teams heading to the Free Throw line and that can help.

Minnesota did not shoot the ball well at all in Game 1, but have looked a bit better in each of the last two and they can keep that momentum going. We may be ready to see the closest game of the Western Conference Finals so far with so much on the line for both teams and there should be enough quality shooting shown to at least move past this total set.

Tuesday 27th May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 4 Pick: They have been making history throughout this Playoff run and the New York Knicks became the first to overcome 20 point deficits to win games three times in a row in one post-season.

It has been a difficult Playoff to negotiate with so many games ending in crazy fashion and Game 3 of the Eastern Conference Finals was no different.

With Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson in serious foul trouble and with the Indiana Pacers coasting, the Eastern Conference Finals looked set to be all but over with the Number 4 Seed about to move into a 3-0 lead. The decision was made to bench Brunson, but KAT took things over and there was enough push from the bench players to help the New York Knicks overcome the big deficit and ultimately half the deficit in the Series.

A big Game 4 is coming up and the New York Knicks will be hoping they have the momentum to get things levelled up before they head back to Madison Square Garden. They will want to avoid having to dig out of a big hole again and that means making a much faster, consistent start having been hit hard by the Indiana Pacers in the first half.

There is a key moment in Game 3 which may help the New York Knicks- Aaron Nesmith rolled his ankle and being the most consistent Defensive player capable of slowing down Jalen Brunson, it would be a big loss if he is limited. He did not look right after that moment in the Fourth Quarter and that is expected to be a factor that hurts Indiana on both sides of the court.

Of course the Pacers will feel pretty sick with the way they lost their lead in Game 3- the approach felt off in the second half and they lost all rhythm on their shooting. It was the worst display from three point range and so the Pacers may feel they can show enough to bounce back, as they have throughout this Playoff run.

The Knicks are feisty, but so are the Pacers and this is a team that has lost Game 3 in both previous Series and won the next time out on their way to a close in five.

In recent Conference Finals, Game 4 has leaned heavily towards the host as long as they are not facing an elimination game. That will encourage the Indiana Pacers and this has also been a Round of the post-season when teams have had a solid record bouncing back from losses.

It may only be 2-2 against the spread this year, but is now up to 31-17-1 against the spread across the last forty-nine Conference Finals games.

We should have another competitive game in what has been a competitive Eastern Conference Finals, but the Indiana Pacers may do just enough to win and cover ahead of a return to Gotham where Game 5 is set to take place.

Wednesday 28th May

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 5 Pick: They came out looking to make a statement in Game 4, which they did, but perhaps most impressive about the Oklahoma City Thunder is the way they managed to take every big haymaker thrown at them by the Minnesota Timberwolves.

They are still a young team and so it would have been a challenge, especially on the road, but the Thunder kept making the big plays at the big moments and ultimately that was enough to hold on for a victory and, most importantly, a 3-1 lead in the Western Conference Finals.

The first of three close out opportunities is in front of the home fans with both teams heading back to Oklahoma City and you do have to wonder if the Timberwolves have much left in the tank. They did almost everything right in the two games played at home, but the team could not make the stops needed and, for a second season in a row, the Timberwolves look to be coming up one Round short of the NBA Finals.

No one will be giving up just yet and the Timberwolves may look to make a couple of adjustments in their bid to keep this Series alive and bring it back home.

However, it cannot be ignored about how much the Minnesota Timberwolves put into the last game.

The bench produced historically strong numbers and the NBA Playoffs have long proven that role players find things that much tougher on the road than they do when playing at home. So it may be asking a lot of those bench players to make the same impact again, while the Oklahoma City Thunder have been much more solid at home throughout this post-season run.

After seeing what happened in Game 3, the Thunder may be more prepared to deal with what should be an early onslaught from the desperate Timberwolves. Oklahoma City have shown they have players who can step up though and they will take confidence from the fact that both home wins over Minnesota have been very comfortable in the Western Conference Finals.

Favourites and the hosts have both been trending very well in Game 5 of the recent Conference Finals and those teams are 14-4 and 13-5 against the spread respectively.

And those teams looking to close a Series who are favoured by at least 4.5 points have turned in a 10-3 record against the spread in the last thirteen Conference Finals games with that situation set.

With that all considered, the Oklahoma City may weather the early storm and grind down the belief of the Minnesota Timberwolves through the first three Quarters. The pumped up home crowd can then push the hosts home with a win and a cover as they look to reach the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012.

Thursday 29th May

The direction of travel for both Conference Finals suggests we are potentially not going to see any Game 6s, never mind two, and that means a decision has been made to keep all of the selections in this one thread.

It may not be needed beyond Thursday if the Timberwolves and Knicks cannot keep themselves alive, but there are still close out games to be won by Oklahoma City and Indiana.

Indiana Pacers @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: Halfway through the Third Quarter of Game 4, it felt like the Indiana Pacers had a dominant lead having controlled much of the night. However, the scoreboard told a different story and the New York Knicks were doing what they have been throughout the post-season and that is hanging around and then looking to strike late.

However, this time the Pacers made sure they largely kept the Knicks at arm's length thanks to pushing New York into early foul trouble in the Fourth Quarter and having some of the star players make some big plays.

Tyrese Haliburton will be receiving most of the praise having avoided giving up a single turnover, but adding 32 Points, 15 Assists, 12 Rebounds and 4 Steals to that performance. He said he would be much better than Game 3 and Haliburton was all that and more as the Indiana Pacers take a grip of the Eastern Conference Finals.

The tempo has been tough to deal with and the Pacers have closed out the last two Series in five games and have an opportunity to do that again as they look for a third win at Madison Square Garden.

New York will need the home fans to be loud and get firmly behind them and they are in a 'good' 3-1 situation having avoided going 3-0 down. That has been a situation from which no team has ever recovered in the NBA Playoffs, but there have been a small amount of teams that have managed to come back from a 3-1 deficit to win a Series.

Only thirteen teams have managed to recover, but eight of those have been in a position where they are hosting two of the last three games and that is the same for the Knicks. Keeping out of foul trouble is key, while it sounds like Karl-Anthony Towns has avoided a serious knee injury that may have ruled him out until next season.

Adjustments to the starting lineup could be made again, but the Knicks are in a pressurised situation and simply have not played as well at Madison Square Garden as they would have wanted under Playoff conditions. It makes it tough to believe in them having lost Game 4, but New York have shown they can hurt this Indiana Pacers team if they can control the turnovers.

Recent trends in the Conference Finals points to the hosts, the favourites and the team that lost Game 4 as being the one that will produce the best record against the spread in Game 5. Those numbers are 13-5, 14-4 and 12-6 respectively against the spread in recent years, but the Indiana Pacers have to be respected with the momentum built up and the way they have managed previous Series in this Playoff run.

Instead it may be better to look for this game to finish 'over' the total points line set and that is largely down to the tempo both teams are playing with- the Knicks are being forced to play at Indiana's speed and that has led to fouls as teams look to break out, while also seeing quick movement of the ball opening up shooting lanes.

It is impossible to expect this Game 5 to have a First Quarter like the one we saw on Tuesday, but the teams are still scoring heavily.

And it should be noted that the last eight Game 5s that featured a close out spot, seven have finished surpassing the total and this could follow that trend with what we have seen from the Eastern Conference Finals so far.

Saturday 31st May

New York Knicks @ Indiana Pacers Game 6 Pick: The opening few minutes of Game 5 set the tempo for the Indiana Pacers and it was very difficult to move past what had been a sloppy start.

They did hang around for a while and were in a threatening range going into the Fourth Quarter, but the turnovers killed the hopes of the Pacers as they looked to close out the Eastern Conference Finals. It did not help at all that Tyrese Haliburton fell from the historical heights reached in Game 4 to be a non-factor in Game 5 and the entire supporting cast will be critical of themselves for failing to match the intensity of the desperate hosts.

Pascal Siakam was involved in a tetchy discussion with a local reporter at the end of Game 5 after admitting him and his team-mates had not played as 'hard' as the New York Knicks, but the Pacers will want to bury this performance as soon as possible. They have already made it clear that they will be much better in Game 6 when getting the chance to close the Eastern Conference Finals at home and the expectation is that Haliburton and the role players will feel much more comfortable being back in home surroundings.

That alone is not going to be enough to beat the New York Knicks if the latter feel they have finally found the formula to slow this Indiana team down. In two of the last three games, the Knicks have held them to below 101 points and Game 5 was the first time in the post-season that Indiana failed to register triple digits.

A lot went right for the Knicks in Game 5- the bench were spectacular and Jalen Brunson displayed some Defensive grit that has been missing and is one of the criticisms that are often hurled towards him. Karl-Anthony Towns showed he is capable of playing through his knee issues and Mitchell Robinson proved to be a menace around the boards, but putting that all together again will not be easy.

The Knicks will be well aware that the Defensive side of the court is where they can really generate their success having found decent match ups the other way. New York will also be looking to win the turnover battle and get out in transition to really put the pressure on Indiana, who will be very keen to avoid another Game 7 at Madison Square Garden.

You have to figure the Pacers are much better all around having allowed the Knicks to do what they want on Thursday and they will certainly want to be a bit quicker with the ball. Too many possessions were getting down to the final seconds and that has not been the winning formula for Indiana who want to push the tempo and wear down opponents.

In recent years, teams that have had an opportunity to close the Conference Finals in Game 6 have been very good against the spread and the lean has to be with the Indiana Pacers, despite the underperformance in Game 5.

However, the over is 8-5 in the last thirteen Conference Finals Game 6s that have been played and the Pacers are expected to bounce back after the poor outing on Thursday. The Knicks have shown they can produce Offensively, even if their wins have been behind strong Defensive performances, and the line has dropped from the last game, which makes the over more appealing to back here than picking a side.

MY PICKS: 20/05 Minnesota Timberwolves + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

21/05 New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers Over 223 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

23/05 New York Knicks - 5.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

24/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 2.5 Points @ 1.87 William Hill (1 Unit)

25/05 Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks Over 223 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

26/05 Minnesota Timberwolves-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

27/05 Indiana Pacers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

28/05 Oklahoma City Thunder - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

29/05 New York Knicks-Indiana Pacers Over 222.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

31/05 Indiana Pacers-New York Knicks Over 218.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Conference Finals: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Second Round: 8-14-1, - 6.64 Units (23 Units Staked, - 28.87% Yield)

First Round: 20-19, - 0.72 Units (39 Units Staked, - 1.85% Yield)

Play In Tournament: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs 2024- NBA Finals Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks (June 6th-23rd)

The NBA PlayOffs have had some drama and some very good Series, but the Conference Finals were a massive disappointment.

The East was won in a sweep, while the Western Conference only needed a Game 5 to determine the winning team.

Yes, there was a disappointing lack of drama, but the good news is that we have a NBA Finals that features the two best teams from the last six weeks.

There is some pressure on both the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks, but the stories before the Series has begun has set the table and the two teams have performed at a very high level.

Unsurprisingly the Boston Celtics will head into the NBA Finals, as they have been for a long time, but ruling out the Dallas Mavericks would be a mistake having come through as the underdog in each of the last two Series against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves. They are being led by a star looking to move into the next echelon, while the Boston Celtics have two players still looking to prove themselves by finally being able to call themselves NBA Champions.

It should mean a fun Series for as long as it lasts.

Much like last year, the first two Rounds produced a decent return for the NBA Picks, but the Conference Finals stumped me.

That is something to learn from when the PlayOffs come back around in twelve months time.

The entire NBA Finals coverage will be placed in this thread.

NBA Finals 2024- Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks (June 6th-23rd)

Thursday 6th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: The NBA Finals begin on Thursday, although the wait between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the Championship Series has not been ideal.

The schedulers cannot be blamed for that- not many would have tipped both Conference Final Series to have been as one-sided as they turned out to be.

It does mean plenty of rest for the Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks ahead of the NBA Finals and that is also good news for the injured players who missed out on the Conference Finals.

Kristaps Porzingis is one beneficiary and he is set to suit up for the Boston Celtics in Game 1, which is a huge boost for the team. They have played well even without him, but the Celtics know they are a different beast with Porzingis in the starting lineup.

He will not be lacking for motivation against one of his former teams, but the Dallas Mavericks will also be suiting up a player with something to prove.

Kyrie Irving might not be the superstar for the Dallas Mavericks, but he has backed up Luka Doncic impressively in his time with the team. His play has been elevated in the post-season and Irving will be ready for Game 1 and the passionate Boston crowd that are going to try and rattle him out of his focus.

After winning a Championship with the Cleveland Cavaliers, Kyrie Irving made a big splash by moving to Boston, but his two years with the team were underwhelming. The Celtics decided the team would grow more effectively without him and there was little love lost between the player and the team when he moved to Brooklyn.

Some believed that Kyrie Irving was a pretty poor fit in most places after failing with the Nets, but he has found a good home in Dallas and playing second fiddle to Luka Doncic might aid him.

At the same time, Irving will arrive in this Series with a point to prove and that certainly makes the NBA Finals that much more fascinating. He has played well in the post-season and Dallas are going to need him when facing this Boston Celtics team that could be back at full health and who have shown they can beat you in very different ways.

Defensively they have not played as well as hoped, but the return of Porzingis gives Boston a boost on this side of the court and the Celtics can make it pay in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

Players like Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are playing with the pressure to show they are able to fulfil the potential they have long held, but the supporting cast have been key for Boston. They will likely give Doncic plenty to think about when he is in the uncomfortable position of having to Defend against Derrick White or Jrue Holiday and the depth of this Celtics team is impressive.

Game 1 home favourites are on a strong run in the NBA Finals with the last ten ending 8-2 against the spread, while teams favoured by more than 4.5 points at home are 19-10-1 against the spread in the last thirty in that position.

The Celtics struggled for covers in the Eastern Conference Finals and this Dallas Mavericks team have played at a high level and been able to hang around in games. However, the return of Kristaps Porzingis and the crowd being fired up by seeing Kyrie Irving on the other side of the court feels like it will pump enough energy behind the home players to see them move into a 1-0 lead with a cover of this relatively wide line.

Sunday 9th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: Despite being cleared to take part in Game 1, some fans of the Boston Celtics might have been a little concerned that Kristaps Porzingis was only going to feature from the bench.

Those concerns dissipated very quickly after Porzingis moved onto the court and he showed he is more than ready to take part in the NBA Finals and just gives the Boston Celtics a completely different look and feel.

They might have swept the Indiana Pacers in the Conference Finals, but Boston were made to work very hard and that meant there were one or two doubters about this time heading into the NBA Finals. However, the return of Kristaps Porzingis makes them that much tougher to defend and the Dallas Mavericks did not have many answers in a Game 1 in which they were down by 29 points during the First Half.

Luka Doncic did his best in the Third Quarter to rally the Mavericks and helped the team reduce that deficit to just 8 points, but the little support from those around him ultimately proved too much for Dallas and Doncic.

Adjustments will be made by Head Coach Jason Kidd and there may even be changes made to the starting lineup to make sure they can close on the Boston three point shooters. It was not a lights out display from beyond the arc, but the Celtics live and die by the three pointer and they threw up 42 of those in Game 1, which is 15 more than the Dallas Mavericks, while Boston also landed 16-7 compared with their visitors.

The reality is it has been tough to stop all season and especially with Porzingis on the court and the bigger adjustment for Dallas may be trying to match the output. They will certainly need more from Kyrie Irving, who heard the chants from a fanbase that have little love lost for him.

Boston felt like they had decided to try and lock down on the top two Dallas players and force others to beat them and that has been a concern for this Mavericks team. They have found a way to get the role players going in the previous Series, but doing so against the Boston Celtics is another challenge and the Dallas Mavericks may struggle to make this one much closer.

It should almost certainly be more competitive after Boston blew open a big lead by the middle of the Second Quarter, but getting much closer at the end of the game will be tough for the Mavericks.

Teams who have been blown out in the NBA Finals have followed up with a 9-18-2 record against the spread in the next outing over the last twenty-nine occasions when a double digit defeat has been suffered.

As mentioned in the Game 1 preview, teams favoured by at least 4.5 points at home are now 20-10-1 against the spread after Boston covered last time out, while home teams are 5-2-1 against the spread in the last eight Game 2 NBA Finals outings.

My concern is that Boston dropped Game 2 at home in the First Round Series and in the Conference Semi Final Series, but they avoided that fate in the Eastern Conference Finals. We have seen how much fight and determination this Dallas Mavericks team have and so they have to be respected, but the Celtics will feel that much stronger with Kristaps Porzingis back and they can back up the Game 1 win with another strong showing.

Wednesday 12th June

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: It was a much better effort from the Dallas Mavericks, but they were not able to sustain things and the Boston Celtics had moved clear in the Fourth Quarter before holding on for a 2-0 lead in the NBA Finals.

Both wins were at home so the Dallas Mavericks will make the trek back to Texas knowing that this Series is not beyond them, although Game 3 is effectively a 'must win' situation for them.

There was more support for Luka Doncic in Game 2 compared with Game 1, and he had eleven Assists compared with a single Assist. The whole starting lineup managed to get into double digits in terms of points, but the lack of depth was an issue for the Dallas Mavericks, while the continued struggles to hit consistently from the three point arc has proven to be fatal to the chances of earning an upset.

Being back at home should help the role players have a more consistent impact, but the Mavericks have not been dominant here in their run to the NBA Finals. This has to be a concern for Dallas and they will be looking to make a few more adjustments to make sure the players around Luka Doncic are able to have an impact on Game 3.

With a 2-0 lead, you might be forgiven for thinking the Boston Celtics are going to be extremely happy, but this is a team that knows it has yet to really perform to the level they have come to expect from themselves. They were very good in the First Quarter of Game 1, but the Celtics have not really imposed themselves on the NBA Finals and they have struggled to hit their three pointers as they would have liked.

Despite that, Boston have really ramped things up Defensively and they have made it clear that they are going to try and limit Doncic's impact as a playmaker. He has been allowed to make his own shots, but the Celtics are trying to make sure that others are not able to beat them and ultimately it has worked out as planned.

The Celtics have been dominant on the road in the post-season and that makes them dangerous, but Game 3s have tended to land in favour of the hosts and it makes this line a tough one to call. Boston have been the better team, but the Dallas Mavericks have to be highly motivated returning home and it would not surprise anyone if this came down to the final two minutes.

The trend that may continue to pay out is the 'under' with the total line dropping 3.5 points from Game 1.

The 'under' is 21-11-1 against the spread in the last thirty-three games in the NBA Finals and that includes in both games in this NBA Finals. Kristaps Porzingis is expected to be available for the Celtics and has offered a punch from the bench, but shooting has been a struggle for both teams and that may continue.

Friday 14th June

Boston Celtics @ Dallas Mavericks Game 4 Pick: There was a feeling prior to the start of the NBA Finals that the depth of the Boston Celtics would prove to be too much, although plenty of 'experts' picked the Dallas Mavericks to make this a very competitive Series.

After coming through the Western Conference impressively, the Mavericks would have felt confident, but all of their weaknesses have been on display as they have slipped 3-0 behind the Eastern Conference Champions.

Luka Doncic will be looking to rally the troops, but he has been on the end of plenty of sharp criticism after the Game 3 defeat.

His lack of Defensive effort has been the main talking point and you have to believe Doncic is going to have something to prove. It was perhaps ironic that he fouled out of the Game 3 defeat when trying to actually get his body between the ball and the basket, but it came at a bad time for the Mavericks who had rallied from a 21 point deficit and had pulled within 3 points of the Celtics and with time remaining in the Fourth Quarter.

Ultimately losing their best player ended the rally and the Dallas Mavericks have very little time between Game 3 and Game 4 to make adjustments, dust themselves off and look to avoid an embarrassing sweep.

There is no doubt that Luka Doncic will have heard and read all of the words focusing on him, but it has been a tough Series for him. Defensively he has never been the best, but there is only so much Doncic can do on the other side of the court and Boston have made it clear that the role players are not going to have a big impact on the Series.

Kyrie Irving played well in Game 3, but the Celtics are living with their former player and Doncic scoring points and the efforts to shut down the rest have really paid off.

You have to expect more of the same from the Boston Celtics, even if they almost shockingly blew a massive lead in the Game 3 victory. Ultimately that has taken them to the brink of winning a first NBA Championship in sixteen years and will place Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown on another level all together.

Both played a big game on the road to help the Celtics win again and they have shown they can cope without Kristaps Porzingis, who had to sit down in Game 3 and has to be considered doubtful with the short turnaround into Game 4.

Boston have shown a couple of times in this Series that once they get hot, they are going to have all of the answers to this Dallas Mavericks Defensive scheme. The Celtics are finding the open man when it comes to setting up the three pointers and they are draining enough of them to really take control of the tempo.

After three games, it is very difficult to see a massive shift in the NBA Finals and the 'under' continues to be the play.

With the win on Wednesday, the 'under' is now 22-11-1 in the NBA Finals, while Game 4s in the Finals are 9-1 in favour of the 'under'.

There is a short turn in the action and that may contribute to another low-scoring game as Boston continue to make things very difficult for the Dallas role players. The Celtics do have the capabilities of putting up big points if they find their three point shooting groove, but Dallas have shown they can at least force some misses and the one point drop in the total may not be enough for the 'over' to come in.

Monday 17th June

Dallas Mavericks @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: Criticisms were heard and there was a real worry that the Dallas Mavericks were going to be swept out of the NBA Finals.

Instead Luka Doncic came out with something to prove and Kyrie Irving's long run of defeats to his former team were ended in emphatic fashion as the Mavericks blew out the Boston Celtics in Game 4.

The game was so far out of hand that the Celtics actually didn't play their starters in the Fourth Quarter and the Mavericks may feel they have some real momentum now. In recent years in the NBA Finals, momentum has certainly been a factor once we get into the latter stages of the Series, and that is something the Dallas Mavericks will lean on as they look to find a way to earn one more home game in the 2023/24 season.

The manner of the defeat on Friday will have been a shock to the Boston Celtics, but this is a team that is unlikely to panic.

It is only the third defeat Boston have suffered in the post-season, but the previous two have been followed up with big wins and they will certainly feel confident of closing this NBA Finals at home. The reality is that the Celtics just had an off-shooting night, as they had in the previous PlayOff defeats, but Boston have shown they can avoid making those nights the norm rather than the exceptions.

At home you have to believe they will shoot the ball that much better than they managed in Game 4 and this is a team that will still be firm in the belief of controlling this NBA Finals.

Kristaps Porzingis was given clearance to play in Game 4, but did not get onto the court- this perhaps indicates that he will be ready to play a part in Game 5 with two days of rest between those two games and that will be a huge boost for the Celtics too.

Game 5 hosts have not had the best record covering the spread in recent NBA Finals, but being a big home favourite is perhaps the exception. Those being asked to lay at least 4.5 points are now 20-10-2 against the spread in the last thirty-two NBA Finals games in that situation and Boston are 1-0-1 against the spread in this Series.

The blowout loss of Game 4 is hard to ignore, but the last three teams that have been beaten by at least 30 points in a NBA Finals game have followed up not only with a win, but a win by double digits. As well as the Dallas Mavericks played in Game 4, they were aided by a poor day in the office from the Boston Celtics and it may be asking too much for that to happen again.

Dallas have made some adjustments that helped, but there is a feeling they could turn back to poor habits if this game begins poorly and the Boston Celtics look ready to be crowned NBA Champions again.

MY PICKS: 06/06 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

09/06 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/06 Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics Under 212.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

14/06 Dallas Mavericks-Boston Celtics Under 211.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

17/06 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

NBA Finals: 3-0-1, + 2.73 Units (4 Units Staked, + 68.25% Yield)

Conference Finals: 3-6, - 3.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)

Conference Semi Finals: 13-11, + 0.87 Units (24 Units Staked, + 3.63% Yield)

First Round: 22-17, + 3.27 Units (38 Units Staked, + 8.61% Yield)