NFL Super Bowl LIX Pick 2025 (Sunday 9th February)

A seven month wait for the next NFL game will begin on Sunday evening when Super Bowl LIX concludes the 2024 season.

Back in Week 2 of the season my early thoughts on the year had identified the Kansas City Chiefs as the favourites and the Philadelphia Eagles as a team that could have enough improvement to turn things around after the poor end to the 2023 season and with Head Coach Nick Sirianni barely clinging onto his role.

It has proven to be the right decision, even if Sirianni and the fans were not always reading from the same page during the season and a repeat of Super Bowl LVII looks a very strong way to end the season.

If the game is anything like that one two years ago, this could be a brilliant Super Bowl in New Orleans.

The NFL might not have any competitive action until early September following the Super Bowl, but this is not a sport that will be quiet over those months with teams preparing for the 2025 season.

Free Agency and the Draft will draw plenty of attention, while it has already been a big week for international fans of the NFL after news was announced that Melbourne, Madrid and Dublin will be hosting games featuring Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers as designated home teams. The fans in Australia will have to wait until 2026, but Madrid and Dublin join the international party later in the year.

London will still have three games and Berlin will host one too as the NFL continues to expand the boundaries of the sport and there could yet be further additions to the international schedule.

Another NFL season is going to finish with a positive return for the Picks on these pages and there can never be any complaints about that.

The Playoff results have been mixed, but the strong Wild Card Round has been the key to a positive post-season run too with just one more Pick to be made in the 2025 season.

Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) edged out the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) thanks to a Field Goal being scored with just eight seconds left in Super Bowl LVII.

There would have been a lot of regret on the Philadelphia sideline considering they had secured many more yards than the Kansas City Chiefs in the game and the Eagles were looking the stronger team as the game was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.

Last season was a disappointing one for the Eagles, while the Kansas City Chiefs ended up repeating, but the two best teams in the NFL meet again in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans and there is plenty on the line for both.

For a team that has won seventeen games, there are still one or two questions about the Kansas City Chiefs that perhaps leads to some doubting their ability to become the first team to win three straight Championships in the Super Bowl era. It would be a remarkable achievement, but there is plenty of reason to think that the Philadelphia Eagles are the toughest team they could have faced in the Super Bowl.

Doubting Patrick Mahomes would be a big mistake and it would be incredible if the Eagles are underestimating this Kansas City Quarter Back.

When Kansas City have the ball, the pressure may be on Patrick Mahomes to make the plays for his team, and he has shown in the post-season that he is capable of tucking the ball and looking to keep the Chiefs in front of the chains.

Offensively the Chiefs do not match up as they would like with the Philadelphia Eagles- while recent opponents have had some success running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line, the Kansas City Chiefs have not found sustained success on the ground and instead it may be the odd look that helps get someone loose.

It is unlikely to be a traditional running game and so Patrick Mahomes is going to be asked to make plays through the air against one of the stronger Secondaries in the NFL this season.

Again, it is simply not an option to doubt Mahomes and his ability to attack the Secondary with some success and Kansas City have got some key Receivers back into action over the last month, which will help. Patrick Mahomes is capable of making the clutch throw and the Kansas City Chiefs seem to find a way to put a scoring drive together when they really need to do that, while Head Coach Andy Reid will have prepared to find a way to exploit gaps in the Philadelphia Secondary.

The Patrick Mahomes record against Vic Fangio cannot be ignored either, but there still has to be a feeling inside the Eagles camp that they can at least stall some drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of winning this game.

It is the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Saquon Barkley that are going to be all important in this game- you know the Eagles will go as far as the Offensive Line will carry them, especially with a Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and his ability to make plays with his legs too, but it is also key to draw out drives and wear down the Kansas City Chiefs up front, and leave Patrick Mahomes stewing on the sidelines while waiting his turn.

Over the season, Kansas City's Defensive Line have played pretty well, but there have been signs of some weakness during this post-season run.

Joe Mixon and James Cook have had big games against the Chiefs in the Playoffs and now they have to deal with Saquon Barkley and this powerful Eagles Offensive Line. There has been no doubt about how strong Philadelphia have been when it comes to punishing teams on the ground and Barkley could have yet another big performance to round out what has been a very special first year with the Eagles.

Those two Running Backs had big games, but so did CJ Stroud and Josh Allen as Quarter Backs very comfortable running with the ball and Jalen Hurts can follow suit here.

It could be very important for Jalen Hurts to be given some time when he does choose to target his big name Receivers down the field, especially against this Chiefs Secondary, and the Quarter Back may just help Philadelphia earn their revenge.

Without the same kind of running support, Patrick Mahomes could find himself under siege at times by a very strong and effective Philadelphia pass rush and the narrow lean is with the Eagles to earn revenge.

Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never an easy decision and he has been very good in the Playoffs, while also being a player that has a very strong covering record when the Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with a spread that covers them between a three point underdog or favourite.

The Chiefs are going for an unprecedented three-peat in the NFL, but it should be noted that the last two Super Bowl wins have both been as the narrow underdog and this time they are favoured. Over recent seasons, the underdog has actually been the right play when it comes to the spread and those two Kansas City wins have pushed the underdog to 17-6 against the spread in the last twenty-three Super Bowls played.

You may believe that being a higher Seed heading into the Super Bowl or having the superior regular season record is important, but those teams have actually been on the wrong end of the final Super Bowl score far too often. The higher Seed is now 2-16-2 against the spread over the last twenty-seven years (equal Seeds make up the remainder), while the team with the better regular season record is 1-16 against the spread in the last seventeen Super Bowls when that applies.

This is going to be close and it would not be a surprise if it comes down to another late Field Goal kick, but the Philadelphia Eagles might have been preparing to beat the Kansas City Chiefs ever since losing the Super Bowl two years ago. They look to match up well with the Chiefs on both sides of the ball and the Eagles Offensive Line can lead the NFC team to a second Super Bowl Championship in the history of the franchise.

MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.15 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7.5% Yield)

Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.75 Units

Super Bowl LII Pick- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles (February 4th 2018)

Super Bowl LII- New England Patriots vs Philadelphia Eagles

The NFL season has come and gone in the blink of an eye and we are down to the final two teams in the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles who meet in the Super Bowl in Minnesota on Sunday 4th February 2018.

It looks a good game on paper with enough intrigue to make the Super Bowl 'must watch' TV and not only for the commercials and half time show either.

The New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles have come through the Play Offs in similar ways with one dominant win and one tough one that could have easily gone the other way.

For the Patriots it was an easy night in the Divisional Round as they dominated the Tennessee Titans after some early issues, while they were then having a few issues with the tough Defensive Jacksonville Jaguars who could so easily have won the AFC Championship Game.

The Philadelphia Eagles had it the other way around as they battled past the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round when holding them out as the Falcons threw into the End Zone for the win at the end of the Fourth Quarter. They then dominated the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game and the Philadelphia Eagles will not have worry about being the underdog in the Super Bowl having won both home Play Off Games as the underdog already.

That is going to inspire them in the Super Bowl as people failed to believe Nick Foles would be able to do enough to cover for the injured Carson Wentz. Some of that was down to two really average performances in the regular season and I am still not sure Nick Foles is going to be able to reach the level he did against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Championship Game.

I was very impressed with the throws he made against a very strong Minnesota Defensive unit, but I also have to say that the Vikings produced their worst performance of the season on that side of the ball. The Vikings Defensive unit may be better than the one the New England Patriots have, but that performance in the NFC Championship Game was far below how well the Patriots can play and so Nick Foles has to expect a much tougher test of his ability in the Super Bowl.

Bill Belichick would have been studying the tape over the last couple of weeks and I think that is going to make a difference against Foles. Taking away one of the key contributors is going to be an issue for Foles as he may have to go through his progressions a little more, although a similar level to the one he produced against Minnesota would definitely give the Eagles plenty of chances to move the ball and score points against this New England Defensive unit.

Foles can have success in this one, but has to be aware of the pass rush that New England have been able to generate up front. So far the Eagles have been able to overcome the loss of Jason Peters and Lane Johnson remains as good as any Right Tackle in the NFL, but the Patriots will give them different looks up front to try and get to Foles and at least force him to get the ball out of his hands earlier than he would like.

It might be down to Foles to keep the chains moving as the Patriots continue to play the run effectively enough. However the likes of Jay Ajayi are able to come out of the Running Back spots to catch short passes and make some big plays in the open field so New England will have to make sure they are fully focused on tackling as well as they can.

The Quarter Back will take his shots against a good Secondary and I expect Foles to connect with some of the deep shots too. However the Patriots have some top playmakers in the Secondary and Foles has to be at his best to make sure he gives the Eagles the very best chance to win the big game.

Questions about Nick Foles' temperament have been raised throughout the last two weeks and we really won't know how he can handle the pressure until kick off. That is not the case with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots who are so used to playing in the last game of the season and the match up at the line of scrimmage is crucial for the Philadelphia Eagles to try and at least rattle the future Hall of Famer.

Philadelphia have the talent on the Defensive Line to get after Brady without sending more than four men after the Quarter Back and that is crucial to their chances of the upset. Throughout a stellar career we have seen Brady struggle when being put under pressure by four men and that has led to erratic performances, but his experience should mean he is at least able to make some big plays for the New England Patriots with a full complement of Receiving weapons available after Rob Gronkowski cleared the concussion protocol.

Like the Eagles, New England will likely lean on their Quarter Back more than running the ball against a tough Defensive Line. However, also like the Eagles, the Running Backs are very capable Receivers either lining up wide or coming from out of the backfield and Brady is more than happy to provide short passes that those Backs can catch and produce big plays in the open field.

There will be a respect for the Philadelphia Secondary who have played well and have some stellar talent in their ranks, but Brady will look to open them up with the short to mid-range passes which could see someone like Brandin Cooks break a big one. Mainly I expect Brady to rely on the short passing game to keep the chains moving and try and tire out a Philadelphia pass rush which could then see the Patriots take over this game.

Picking a winner is still tough though because I like the way the Eagles have been built and I honestly think they would win if they had Carson Wentz. As well as Nick Foles played against Minnesota, expecting that level again seems a stretch to me and I can see Bill Belichick finding the system to slow down the Eagles Offensively.

Seeing the New England Patriots as the public team has been the norm in recent years, but the public are firmly behind the Philadelphia Eagles as the underdog in this one. That has seen the point spread shrink to an acceptable level here and I do think the New England Patriots can use their superior Quarter Back play help them get the better of a Philadelphia team that may need the perfect performance from their back up Quarter Back to find a way to earn the upset.

Defensively they can slow the Patriots to some extent, but the no-huddle Tom Brady runs is likely to wear down the Eagles and it will all come down to whether Nick Foles can make the big plays on the other side of the ball. I expect Foles to make a few tough throws, but I expect Belichick makes the adjustments at half time to turn this game in the New England Patriots favour and I think they can win yet another Super Bowl and cover this number.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Super Bowl LI Picks 2017- New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons (February 5th)

We are finally down to the final game of the American Football season before a six month wait before any official action is played on the field. The Super Bowl is going to be watched by a huge audience around the globe and it certainly looks an interesting one as the New England Patriots take on the Atlanta Falcons in Houston.

My Play Off picks have not been that good if I am being honest, but this is going to be a winning record regardless of how my final pick does. Hopefully it will be one that brings in one final winner for the season.


New England Patriots vs Atlanta Falcons Pick: Playing in the Super Bowl has been a regular occurrence for the New England Patriots with Tom Brady at Quarter Back and Bill Belichick as Head Coach. The experience those two men have built up has to play a large part in factoring in the favourite for the Super Bowl this weekend, although the oddsmakers are not finding it easy to separate them from the Atlanta Falcons who have been very strong Offensively all season.

It is easy to think the Patriots are all about the Brady and Belichick connection, but there is a very good staff at New England with both Offensive Co-Ordinator Josh McDaniels and Defensive Co-Ordinator Matt Patricia tipped to becoming Head Coaches in their own right in the near future. McDaniels has previously done that with the Denver Broncos, but is expected to receive a second chance at some point, while Patricia could be the hot candidate once he decides he is going to move forward.

Patricia's Defensive unit have quietly gone about their business this season and become one of the better units in the NFL. No one will mistake this Defense for the one that helped the Seattle Seahawks or the Denver Broncos win the Super Bowl in recent season, but it is better than the sum of its parts although the big test will come in the Super Bowl when taking on Atlanta's Number 1 Ranked Offense.

One of the key battles is going to be at the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball as the Atlanta Falcons have two of the most dynamic Running Backs in the NFL and will be going up against a New England Defensive Line that has been stout up front. Alan Branch is a huge body right in the middle of that line, but they have some speed at the edges and from the Linebacker position which has been able to contain the run so both Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman could have a challenge establishing the run.

However both have shown considerable speed and the Atlanta Offensive Line have improved through the course of the season to open holes for the Backs as well as protecting Quarter Back Matt Ryan. Ryan looks like being named the MVP of the regular season and has played very well in two Play Off games to help the Falcons move into the Super Bowl for the first time since 1999.

Ryan hasn't had a lot of Play Off success before this season but he hasn't let that get to him prior to the Super Bowl, although the big game can bring out the nerves. His big weapon Julio Jones looks like he is going to up to full speed for this one and Ryan has a number of weapons on the Offensive side of the ball who can all win the game for the Falcons. It will be interesting to see what kind of game plan New England put together as they have become known for being able to remove one or two key pieces of an Offense and force the other players to beat them, but Atlanta have plenty of players who can step up.

If Ryan has the time I expect him too, I do think he will have success throwing the ball against this Secondary who have made big plays, but also given up some big yards. Shutting down the run could make Atlanta one dimensional if New England remain as stout as they have been up front, but this is a Falcons team that will feel they can throw the ball effectively too.

Matt Ryan will have to try and out-duel Tom Brady in this one with the veteran Quarter Back showing little sign of slowing down. There are some aspects of his abilities that have regressed with age, but Brady is still playing smart football and can still make the deep throws to open up Defenses when he needs to. Even without the likes of Rob Gronkowski, Brady has made Chris Hogan and Martellus Bennett key parts of his Offense and that has seen the Patriots move the chains and score plenty of points.

Brady should enjoy a strong game against an Atlanta Secondary that have allowed some big yards but have been able to turn the ball over which has been a huge part of their success. Turnovers were an issue for Brady in the win over the Houston Texans in the Divisional Round, but he looked much better two weeks ago and I think he will look after the ball well enough to keep the New England Patriots moving in this one.

He gets the ball out of his hands quick enough to negate Vic Beasley and the pass rush and Brady has players like Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman who can be hard to find when they come away from the line of scrimmage. New England are also a smart team that may have seen the struggles Atlanta had on the Defensive Line and so look to use LeGarrette Blount to perhaps punish them up front even if the Patriots' Offensive Line has not opened the holes they would have liked in the Play Offs.

Dominating the line of scrimmage is important for New England as they will want to keep the Atlanta Falcons Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible. With the two weeks to prepare for this game, I do think the Patriots are going to be able to have success running the ball and I also am giving them a narrow advantage on both sides of the ball going into the Super Bowl.

I think Bill Belichick is the master of taking away pieces of an Offense to give his Patriots a chance to win games and I do think this New England Defensive unit is perhaps a little under-rated. The Atlanta Falcons Defense has played well with the eye test, but there are holes in this unit that someone like Tom Brady can use all of his experience to exploit and I think the Patriots may come away with a win and cover, as much as that pains me to say.

However that won't be my pick from the Super Bowl- instead I am focusing on what is the biggest points total for the Super Bowl in history with everyone looking for both teams to score in the 30's.

I am not convinced that happens here though and history suggests it may be difficult too. The last four Super Bowl games with a 50 + total points line have all ended with the under mark coming in and I actually think the two Defensive units will be looking to prove themselves here and had a 28-24 scoreline in favour of the Patriots before I looked at the total points mark.

The 'over' has been a good play in recent years with 4 of the last 6 Super Bowls surpassing the number, while the underdog has been the play against the spread with an 8-1 record in the last nine games. Another trend to point out is the underdog has covered in every Super Bowl New England have played in under Tom Brady and Bill Belichick but that might be changed this year if my feeling is correct.

I won't mind being wrong as long as the under hits as the main play from the Super Bowl. Going against the two Offenses on show is a dangerous play, but both teams might look to make more out of clock management to prevent the other having the opportunity to get into rhythm and making this a huge shoot out. Turnovers can quickly change the mindset of both teams, but I will look for a 28-24/31-24 kind of result in this one and also oppose the public who will be backing the 'over' like they are printing money.

SUPER BOWL LI PICK: Total Points Under 58.5 @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Super Bowl 50 Pick- Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos (Sunday 7th February 2016)

With just one game left to play before the NFL goes into the off-season, the Super Bowl in Santa Clara looks like being the right event between the two best teams in the NFL this season.

Will Cam Newton add to the College National Championship and Heisman Trophy he has already won in his career? Or will the Sheriff have his last gun fight and leave with his second Super Bowl ring?


There are a lot of split opinions on Super Bowl 50 and here is mine.


Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos Pick: This is the second time in three seasons that the Denver Broncos will have made the Super Bowl, although this time you can they have done in spite of Peyton Manning rather than because of him.

There is little doubt that Manning has been the biggest name game manager for the Denver Broncos who have relied on a stellar Defensive unit to carry them through the season. And it really is a legitimately strong Defense but they will need to be at their very best having seen the Carolina Panthers score plenty of points against the Seattle Seahawks vaunted unit (twice) as well as the crushing of the Arizona Cardinals.

The Broncos will rightly feel they have a better Defensive unit than both of those teams as they are strong at all three depths. Denver have been able to stop the run which allows them to unleash a pass rush heavy Defensive Line, while the likes of Brandon Marshall are strong at Linebacker and Bradley Roby, Aqib Talib and Chris Harris help put together a very good Secondary.

However this is the first time Denver will be playing a Quarter Back like Cam Newton and shutting him down is a completely different matter. Unlike the banged up Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady, Newton will be able to move in the pocket and also creates a problem in making sure that he doesn't get out of the pocket and run for First Downs himself.

Newton has made use of a Receiving corps that isn't full of household names, but they have speed and have been able to create the big play through the air. The first element of the Offense is establishing the run, but Cam Newton is so much more than a read-option Quarter Back and I do think he will find creases in the Defensive unit.

If the Panthers continue their strong Offensive output, the pressure is going to build on Peyton Manning to turn back the clock. He will be aided by Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson who should be able to get the run games established, but Manning can only keep handing the ball off if the game is close even if the Panthers have struggled to contain the run effectively in recent games.

It might sound strange to some, but the real weakness in the Carolina Defense is in the Secondary but can the Denver Receivers get past the drops that have haunted them this season? A bigger question may actually be whether Peyton Manning has the arm strength to attack that weakness and the answer for me is that he doesn't any more.

This is also a ball-hawing Secondary that will look to pick off any stray passes that Manning throws and I think it might end up being a crucial difference. While Manning has looked after the ball in the last couple of Play Off wins, it was his pick-six in the Super Bowl against the New Orleans Saints that cost the Indianapolis Colts on that day and I wouldn't be surprised if that is the reason the Denver Broncos go down in Super Bowl 50.

I have a lot of respect for the Denver Defense and the way they have played, but this Carolina team are perhaps a little under-rated Offensively. The Panthers have found a way to score points against teams like Seattle and Arizona and I think they will do the same here except the difference will be that Peyton Manning is not going to be able to lead a comeback with his arm.

Maybe Manning turns back the clock to even the form he showed two seasons ago? That would make the points on Denver very, very appealing, but I think the Panthers prove too good on the day with a pick-six being the reason they cover the spread too as Cam Newton adds another couple of trophies to his ever improving cabinet.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: Carolina Panthers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Super Bowl XLIX Pick- Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots (Sunday 1st February 2015)

The time for talking is over as we get set to say goodbye to the 2014 NFL season- the 49th edition of the Super Bowl comes from Arizona as the New England Patriots get set to take on the Seattle Seahawks.

I have taken a few days to really get to grips with my pick and seem to be going with the popular choice from the NFL players and journalists that have made their decision on which team they believe will win the Championship. It is a season when the spread doesn't really matter as the teams can't be separated by the layers so it simply comes down to a choice of which of these teams you believe will win.

I am looking to extend my run to 4 straight Super Bowl winners this season and I have my pick below.


Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots: For the second season in succession, the Number 1 Seed from the AFC plays the Number 1 Seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year it is the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) taking on the New England Patriots (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX which will come from the home of the Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams made it to the Super Bowl in contrasting fashion, although the Patriots win has been tainted a little from 'Deflate-Gate' which has dominated the media over the last two weeks. New England crushed the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship, but it was later revealed that the balls had not been inflated to the League's minimum requirement, an issue which makes it 'easier' to throw and catch in the rainy conditions we saw at Foxboro two weeks ago.

Most of the Colts team have made it clear that they don't believe there was any reason to think the game would have ended much differently, but the Patriots have previous which has made this a story. It was only a few seasons ago that Bill Belichick was fined half a million dollars and the Patriots lost Draft picks following 'Spy-Gate' when caught filming the signals of their opposition and this is another issue where many are saying the New England successes have not been clean.

The blame on this occasion shifted from Belichick and the spotlight was on Tom Brady, but the NFL have tried to put the issue to bed by saying they will deal with the outcome of their investigation following the Super Bowl. The Patriots may try and use the whole furore to rally the troops together, but they are facing the defending Champions who look to become the first team in ten years to repeat.

The Seattle Seahawks somehow got through the NFC Conference Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers and I am still not sure how they won that game. The Seahawks were down by 12 points with less than five minutes remaining, but it seems the footballing gods were on their side as they converted a number of unbelievable plays to knock off the Packers.

A Touchdown brought Seattle to 5 points behind Green Bay, but they then converted an onside kick, scored another Touchdown before converting a 'Hail Mary' two point play and then scored a winning Touchdown in Overtime. It was one of the most surreal endings to any NFL game that I have seen, let alone one with so much on the line and the Packers must still be wondering how they have lost on 2 of their last 3 visits to the tough Seattle environment.

The big question out of that game against Green Bay was the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, but both are going to be available this Sunday. Sherman is expected to be a father at some point over the next seven days, but it would be extremely bad timing for him to miss this game.

Sherman has been making himself available to the media all through the week, but one of the more ridiculous stories has been concerning Marshawn Lynch. That isn't me criticising the Running Back either because I think it is a farce to ask Lynch to have to talk to the media when he is clearly not comfortable doing so. We have then been treated to Lynch saying the same thing over and over again for five minutes and writers going home to make headlines about the whole thing... As I said, ridiculous!

The Seattle Seahawks had to come from 13 points behind to beat the New England Patriots when they last met in 2012. That game was played in Seattle and is now known as the 'you mad bro?' Game following a tweet that Richard Sherman sent out after the game.


PICK: I have been going back and forth about this game ever since it was set two weeks ago, but I think I have perhaps been over thinking things. Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks match up well against one another, but I was convinced the NFC is the better Conference and I think Seattle prove that by winning back to back Championships.

I will be absolutely honest with you- I don't like either of these teams. Being a Miami Dolphin fan means the New England Patriots will always be a big rival, but they have also been very successful and that does breed a little more dislike. The Seahawks have never really been a team I was overly concerned about, but I can't be the only person who hates seeing any team with their 'bandwagon support' and my dislike comes from the amount of two year fans the Seahawks have picked up.

That does help me clear my head for this game though and look at it from a very cold perspective, which is always the best way when it comes to making picks. I try and put my heart aside when it comes to making picks, but I will admit it couldn't be any easier in this game!

It does seem like the sharps are all over the under at the moment with that total shrinking over the last two weeks and that is understandable. Despite the 40 plus points that New England scored against Indianapolis, the Patriots are not the quick strike Offense that went unbeaten in the regular season in 2007 and instead take a much more methodical approach to their games.

Seattle are the same, although Russell Wilson can air it out at times, and both Defenses are very strong so this game may be 'shortened' with the clock running through plays on the ground and quick passes being completed.

Tom Brady will have success against the Legion of Boom simply because he is unlikely to be testing them deep down the field and instead will look to his possession Receivers like Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski to take his short passes and produce yards after the catch. LeGarrette Blount is a punishing Running Back, but it won't be easy for him to produce a big game against this Seattle Defense, while the Seahawks will feel they can rattle Brady with their four man pass rush.

I expect the New England Patriots will use the blueprint set out by the San Diego Chargers in a win over Seattle earlier this season, although the Seahawks are playing better now. Philip Rivers used quick plays to prolong drives in a methodical manner which kept the Seattle Defense out of sync and I imagine New England will try and do the same.

If Blount can get something going on the ground, the Patriots will definitely have a chance to win this game, but the feeling is that the Seattle Defense can keep Brady in third and long on enough occasions to force punts or mistakes.

While the Seattle Secondary will receive all the attention thanks to a nice moniker, the New England Secondary is also one of the best in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is very comfortable in the system ran by Bill Belichick and he will take away one Receiver, although Seattle don't have one big threat in those positions. Brandon Browner will want to give away some of the secrets of the Seattle Defense to his team, but the Corner Back can sometimes be a penalty machine in the Secondary and Russell Wilson will know that.

On the other hand, Seattle may not need to make big plays against the Secondary with Marshawn Lynch likely to have a good match up against the Patriots run Defense. New England have actually been an improving unit on the ground, but they haven't faced someone like Lynch who is capable of breaking tackles and creating big gains when there seemingly aren't any.

Lynch might not have the success early in the game, but his style wears down Defenses and the second half might when he explodes for some big gains. The threat is magnified by the fact that Russell Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and making gains on the ground and I think it will be tough for the Patriots unless they jump out to a very big lead.

Wilson helped Green Bay do that with his Interceptions thrown, but it is hard to imagine Seattle making those mistakes again and that should keep the running game very much a part of their plans. I also think the Seattle Defense is going to make enough big plays to keep New England from getting too far ahead and my lean is towards Seattle in this game.

Teams playing in back to back Super Bowls haven't played that well in recent seasons, although the last two have managed to win the game. Prior to that, 5 in a row had lost when returning to the Super Bowl, although the Buffalo Bills have accounted for 2 of those back when they reached the Super Bowl in four straight seasons.

There are other trends that really do favour Seattle in this game including the fact that New England have lost the last 2 Super Bowls they have played, both against the New York Giants and one of those in this Stadium. The Patriots also have to overcome the statistic that shows teams scoring 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-22 against the spread in their next game.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have also raised their game when they meet teams led by Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs and everything is pointing to them being the right side. I do have respect for Bill Belichick and the Defensive game plan he will have put in place with two weeks preparation for this game, but the NFC is the better Conference and I always felt they are the more likely winner of the Super Bowl this season regardless of which team came through.

The NFC are 4-1 in the Super Bowl over the last five seasons and the only exception was the San Francisco 49ers who had shots at the end zone to beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago. The spread is virtually a pick 'em now so I will just back the Seattle Seahawks to win.

MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)

Super Bowl XLVIII Pick- Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks (February 2nd 2014)

I can't believe the last five months of the season have come and gone as quickly as they have, but here we are in New York/New Jersey for Super Bowl 48 and I think it is fair to say that the two most deserving teams will get a chance to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Some will argue that the San Francisco 49ers could feel hard done by to not have a chance to avenge their loss against the Baltimore Ravens from Super Bowl 47, but I think the opportunity to have the Number 1 Offense take on the Number 1 Defense is too intriguing to pass up.


Before the Conference Championship Games were decided, I said I believed the NFC team, whoever it was, would beat the AFC representative, but I am also unsurprised that the Denver Broncos are the favourites to win this game. In all honesty, a good Offense will always be more attractive than a good Defense and while the public are pounding the Denver Broncos, they are not overwhelming favourites to win the game with the spread still under the key number 3.

There is every chance that will change either through Saturday night or early Sunday morning as bettors get their wagers to the windows in Vegas, which should in turn have a reaction with the off-shore layers.


So the question from here is whether I have changed my mind about backing the NFC team against the AFC team? Well, let me breakdown how I think the game will go below with the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and then I will make my pick.

This season has been a strong one for the picks, although the Play Offs have been hit and miss with the Conference Championship Games going 1-1 two weeks ago.

I can't complain about the season though, even if a couple of breaks here and there would have meant the Play Offs were a successful month too, especially with one more game to go until we have a six month break from games in the NFL.


Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks Pick: This should be a fantastic Super Bowl with plenty of story lines from Peyton Manning cementing his legacy in the NFL to the young and brash Seattle Seahawks team trying to put their Defense in amongst the very best of all time by adding the Super Bowl to their CV.

Both teams are 15-3 for the season, but there is little doubt that the Seattle Seahawks have come through the harder path over the last five months with big games littered throughout their season in the tough NFC. You have to respect what the Denver Broncos have done this season Offensively, but the AFC was not the same level of competitiveness as the other Conference and their Division does not compare with Seattle's NFC West exploits.

One of the big factors that everyone would have been waiting on was the weather, but that seems to no longer be a big concern with the wind at a reasonable level and little chance of seeing rain. The temperature looks conducive to good football too so the fears that most had when the Super Bowl was awarded to the Met Life Stadium is no longer a concern.

That has to be music to the ears of Peyton Manning, even if he won't admit that openly, because he has not performed to the same level that we expect when the weather does take a turn for the worse. Wind would have been the biggest problem for Manning to overcome having been the only winning Quarter Back in a Super Bowl where rain was a real factor, but he now has a clear chance to join his brother with his second ring.

It will be interesting to see how Manning copes with the Defense that he sees in this game as Denver would not have played a physical unit like the one that Seattle will show him in this game. The referees will be critical to this end as the Seahawks will look to jam the Receivers at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the route running timing that is a key to this whole Denver Offense.

If the referees decide to let them play, Seattle will have a great chance to force turnovers and restrict this Denver Offense from really getting off, but a penalty-happy crew could make it very tough for the Seahawks to use the game that has been so effective for them through the season.

I will assume that the referees are going to let these players play as much as possible, so the Seahawks physical Secondary will cause a lot of problems for this Offense as far as I am concerned. Jamming them at the line of scrimmage is one element, but the pressure the Seahawks get up front is going to be critical in testing this Denver Offensive Line that has managed to keep Peyton Manning upright in their two Play Off games.

Seattle will find it important that they can get pressure with a three or four man rush as that will provide more coverage, while the Defense has also been stout against the run and will likely limit Knowshon Moreno or Montee Ball from out of the backfield. Both Running Backs are likely to be more effective as the check down pass from Manning, but the pressure again will be key to prevent the Quarter Back feeling comfortable in the pocket and forcing him to move around a little.

Disrupting the timing at the line of scrimmage and earning pressure up front will give Seattle a huge chance to slow down an Offense that became the first to surpass 600 points in the regular season. The pressure the Seahawks get up front will also test this Denver Offensive Line, which has held up well through injuries during the season, but who will be facing their toughest opponents in the trenches with the likes of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin capable of cracking the line.

I still expect Denver to move the chains at times, but Kam Chancellor will have the Receivers second guessing themselves when going over the middle to make plays, and Richard Sherman has the chance to prove he really is the best Corner in the NFL as he will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas for much of the game.

This side of the ball has been the most talked about aspect of the Super Bowl over the last two weeks, but the game won't be won and lost on that side of the ball alone.

Denver's Defense hasn't escaped the injury curse that afflicted the Offensive Line with Von Miller and Chris Harris both out for the game, although Champ Bailey will be playing in his first Super Bowl in what could be his final season. Despite these injuries, the Broncos have actually been pretty good against the run all season with the likes of Terrance Knighton improving all the time.

The Broncos have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry all season, but improved that to 3.6 yards per carry over the last three games and limiting Marshawn Lynch is integral to their chances in this game. Keeping Lynch in check will not only stuff the immediate game plan of the Seattle Seahawks, but will also prevent the NFC team controlling the clock and making sure Manning and the powerful Offense is kept off the field, much in the manner that San Diego did in their win in the regular season.

With the way the Denver Defense has played though, the pressure is also very much going to be on Russell Wilson in the biggest game of his career, but he has proved at the College level that he can perform in big games and not be overawed. Wilson has struggled a little down the stretch, but getting Percy Harvin back will give him another Receiving threat.

There are holes in the Denver Secondary that can be exploited, as we saw when Tom Brady missed a couple of wide open Receivers in the Conference Championship loss two weeks ago, but if Wilson can make those throws, he will give his Defense something to protect in terms of points. Harvin is a wild card who could make his biggest impact in the biggest game, although I am interested to see how much Seattle expect from their big off-season trade from the Minnesota Vikings.

If Harvin can give Denver enough to think about, the likes of Golden Tate and Zach Miller can make big catches to keep the Seahawks moving down the field, while Wilson's scrambling ability means he can avoid some of the pass rush. The scrambling also means the Secondary has to stay focused on the Receivers, while Wilson will also be able to pick up some yards on the ground if he is not being spied.

That makes the Seattle Offense a little more interesting too and getting up between 21-24 points will give the Seahawks a real chance to win the game.

Personally, I liked Seattle when the game was set two weeks ago and getting a 3 point head start on the handicap looks a lot of points in what could be a very close game as far as I am concerned.

Both teams will have some success moving the chains, but the intangibles are also leaning towards the Seahawks on this one, although they are playing against Peyton Manning who may not have another chance to play in a Super Bowl (even if I think Denver are the favourites to get back to this point next season as long as Manning returns to Colorado).

The intangibles I talk about are the turnover differential and Seattle have found a way to force those and win that battle through the season which could prove to be the ultimate difference in a game as close as this one. I also believe the Defense is going to cause some real issues for Manning and the Denver Offense, while Russell Wilson has shown his ability to make big plays when he is most needed.

Playing a clean game from a penalty perspective is also all-important for Seattle, but that is a tone the referees have to set early and is the hardest factor to really put a feeling to. If the referees let Seattle play as they have for most of the season, they should cause enough second guessing from Peyton Manning in the game, especially if they get pressure by sending three or four men after the Quarter Back.

 A couple of trends also favour the Seahawks in this one too: The NFC is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 Super Bowl games; the underdog is 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 Super Bowl games.

I also read a statistic that showed the Quarter Back that was the higher rated one by the public is 2-9 against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2000 (the person giving the statistic had two Super Bowls with Quarter Backs that would have been considered level in ability at the time of the Super Bowl game).

Finally, the Number 1 Offense has faced the Number 1 Defense five times previously in the Super Bowl since 1970 and it is the Defense that leads those games 4-1.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the drama of the Super Bowl unfold with Peyton Manning having the ball last with a chance to win the game for the Denver Broncos, but everything is pointing to Seattle as the outright winner in the game and I think they are being given too many points in this one as the City celebrates its first major Championship since 1979.

Super Bowl Prediction: Denver Broncos 21-24 Seattle Seahawks


I don't get involved in too many of the prop betting markets because they tend to be heavily skewed throughout the season, but these could be a fun play for the Super Bowl:

I am not a big fan of prop bets during the season as there simply isn't great value in them, but this is the Super Bowl and everyone has small bets on other markets aside from the main bets they may have.

I am openly admitting that I will be having a few dimes on these prop bets just for the sake of fun, but they could be worth a shot.

For example, Paddy Power are offering 21.00 that we see an Interception returned for a Touchdown in this game- remember the last time Peyton Manning was in a Super Bowl and Tracy Porter picking him to the house for the New Orleans Saints? If Seattle get pressure up front, this Defense could potentially trap a Receiver which leaves a wide open lane for a turnover creating team to take a slant pass for the pick six.

The same company are offering over 5.5 sacks at 3.20 and I think both Quarter Backs could be under pressure in this game, although Russell Wilson is schooled to get rid of the ball if there is no one open down field rather than risk an Interception. That has led to sacks with Wilson dropping deep in the pocket and I also think Seattle will have success getting to Peyton Manning so that looks a decent price.

We haven't seen a Defensive player win Super Bowl MVP for over ten years since Dexter Jackson did that in 2003, but the Seattle Defense has been the strength of their team and if they limit Denver to the points I think, the Super Bowl may have their next Defensive MVP.

Richard Sherman has received so much negative attention following the NFC Conference Championship Game and THAT interview, while the Denver Offense may focus away from hime. However, he leads Seattle with the most Interceptions on the season and another pick off to seal this game could make the 35.00 look a very big price.

Super Bowl XLVII Pick: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bovada (3 Units)

For a very small interest, these three prop markets are my choices for the big game:
Defensive Interception for a Touchdown @ 21.00 (Paddy Power)
Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 3.20 (Paddy Power)
Richard Sherman Super Bowl MVP @ 35.00 (Pinnacle)

Conference Championship: 1-1, - 0.10 Units
Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 85-70-2, + 20.43 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units