Super Bowl 50 Pick- Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos (Sunday 7th February 2016)

With just one game left to play before the NFL goes into the off-season, the Super Bowl in Santa Clara looks like being the right event between the two best teams in the NFL this season.

Will Cam Newton add to the College National Championship and Heisman Trophy he has already won in his career? Or will the Sheriff have his last gun fight and leave with his second Super Bowl ring?


There are a lot of split opinions on Super Bowl 50 and here is mine.


Carolina Panthers vs Denver Broncos Pick: This is the second time in three seasons that the Denver Broncos will have made the Super Bowl, although this time you can they have done in spite of Peyton Manning rather than because of him.

There is little doubt that Manning has been the biggest name game manager for the Denver Broncos who have relied on a stellar Defensive unit to carry them through the season. And it really is a legitimately strong Defense but they will need to be at their very best having seen the Carolina Panthers score plenty of points against the Seattle Seahawks vaunted unit (twice) as well as the crushing of the Arizona Cardinals.

The Broncos will rightly feel they have a better Defensive unit than both of those teams as they are strong at all three depths. Denver have been able to stop the run which allows them to unleash a pass rush heavy Defensive Line, while the likes of Brandon Marshall are strong at Linebacker and Bradley Roby, Aqib Talib and Chris Harris help put together a very good Secondary.

However this is the first time Denver will be playing a Quarter Back like Cam Newton and shutting him down is a completely different matter. Unlike the banged up Ben Roethlisberger and Tom Brady, Newton will be able to move in the pocket and also creates a problem in making sure that he doesn't get out of the pocket and run for First Downs himself.

Newton has made use of a Receiving corps that isn't full of household names, but they have speed and have been able to create the big play through the air. The first element of the Offense is establishing the run, but Cam Newton is so much more than a read-option Quarter Back and I do think he will find creases in the Defensive unit.

If the Panthers continue their strong Offensive output, the pressure is going to build on Peyton Manning to turn back the clock. He will be aided by Ronnie Hillman and CJ Anderson who should be able to get the run games established, but Manning can only keep handing the ball off if the game is close even if the Panthers have struggled to contain the run effectively in recent games.

It might sound strange to some, but the real weakness in the Carolina Defense is in the Secondary but can the Denver Receivers get past the drops that have haunted them this season? A bigger question may actually be whether Peyton Manning has the arm strength to attack that weakness and the answer for me is that he doesn't any more.

This is also a ball-hawing Secondary that will look to pick off any stray passes that Manning throws and I think it might end up being a crucial difference. While Manning has looked after the ball in the last couple of Play Off wins, it was his pick-six in the Super Bowl against the New Orleans Saints that cost the Indianapolis Colts on that day and I wouldn't be surprised if that is the reason the Denver Broncos go down in Super Bowl 50.

I have a lot of respect for the Denver Defense and the way they have played, but this Carolina team are perhaps a little under-rated Offensively. The Panthers have found a way to score points against teams like Seattle and Arizona and I think they will do the same here except the difference will be that Peyton Manning is not going to be able to lead a comeback with his arm.

Maybe Manning turns back the clock to even the form he showed two seasons ago? That would make the points on Denver very, very appealing, but I think the Panthers prove too good on the day with a pick-six being the reason they cover the spread too as Cam Newton adds another couple of trophies to his ever improving cabinet.

MY SUPER BOWL PICK: Carolina Panthers - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

NFL Week 12 Recap 2015 (December 2nd)

I haven't had the time to put together an NFL Recap for the last couple of weeks, but hopefully that won't be the case for the rest of the season.

The NFL continues producing plenty of big stories after each week and Week 12 is no different as we get into the home stretch towards the Play Offs.

Jeff Fisher Should be Fired by the St Louis Rams at the End of the Season

He was one of the most sought after Head Coaches in the NFL after his time at the Tennessee Titans and it was the St Louis Rams who convinced Jeff Fisher to take over as Head Coach rather than head to the Miami Dolphins.

Fisher was successful with the Titans/Houston Oilers, but he now has just two winning seasons as a Head Coach in his last ten years. His best record with the Rams was a 7-8-1 record in his first season, but things have progressively got worse for Fisher as he has since gone 7-9, 6-10 and his team have lost four in a row to drop to 4-7 this season.

After the blow out loss in Cincinnati, Fisher told his critics to 'kiss my ass' if they were to criticise the effort his St Louis Rams have been making, but that's not good enough. There is so much talent on the Defensive side of the ball that it feels like the Rams are underachieving, while the appointment of Gregg Williams as Defensive Co-Ordinator has looked a big mistake with accusations of the St Louis Defensive unit making 'dirty plays'.

Offensively they have been a mess throughout Fisher's time here and the trade for Nick Foles to replace Sam Bradford has simply not worked. The Offensive plays are heavily reliant on gimmick plays and Todd Gurley has hit a wall in his rookie season.

Worst of all is the fact that Fisher didn't pull Case Keenum in the loss to Baltimore in Week 11 when the Quarter Back clearly was disorientated after a hit to his head. Fisher's excuse that he was concentrating on 'game management' isn't good enough and the St Louis Rams are perhaps moving to LA in time for the 2016 season.

Even if that doesn't happen, I think Fisher has had his shot and the St Louis Rams should make sure they are looking for a new Head Coach. One that can build a decent Offensive unit from the pieces they have to go with a Defense that is very under-rated and not being given enough time to rest in games with the other side of the ball constantly landing in three and out spots.

The NFC East Clearly the Worst Division in the NFL

A few weeks ago it was a hard choice to separate the NFC East and the AFC South as the worst Divisions in the NFL, but it has become clear through Week 12 that the NFC East holds that distinction.

The Dallas Cowboys haven't had much luck with their injuries and the renewed collarbone issue for Tony Romo means it is hard to see them making a run. However most teams who have lost seven in a row at some point in the season wouldn't be expected to be challenging for the Division, but the NFC East has been so awful that they are only two games out of the lead.

Then you have the Philadelphia Eagles who have been blown out in back to back weeks and have had their Head Coach Chip Kelly being questioned from a number of different angles. Philadelphia were booed off in their last home game and were embarrassed on Thanksgiving Day, but they are still only one game out of the Division lead.

The New York Giants have to be feeling the worst having had a chance to control the Division by winning on Sunday, but Eli Manning threw three Interceptions and his team fell into a 20-0 hole to the Washington Redskins. A late comeback fell short and that means the Giants and Redskins lead the Division with 5-6 records with just five weeks left to go.

Will this be the latest Division in recent years to send a team to the Play Offs with a losing record? I think the New York Giants can end this season with a 3-2 record to finish 8-8 and win the Division, but it is still very feasible that the Division does have a team with a losing record hosting a Play Off game in January.

Are the Pittsburgh Steelers the Dark Horse to Reach the Super Bowl?

This is the time of the season when fans start looking out for a team that is coming through the pack to perhaps have a surprising Play Off run that potentially leads to the Super Bowl.

In recent years we have seen teams like the New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks and the Pittsburgh Steelers put together strong runs in December which have resulted in the team reaching the Super Bowl even as Wild Card teams.

I know Kansas City seem to be a popular choice to do that in the AFC, but I really have a lot of belief in the Pittsburgh Steelers if they can somehow get Big Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

Roethlisberger is in the concussion protocol this week, but he showed what he is capable of with a huge performance at the Seattle Seahawks in Week 12. He has some big time weapons in the Receiving department while DeAngelo Williams has been an effective replacement for the injured Le'Veon Bell.

The Defensive unit has to play better in the Secondary to really fulfil my belief though after failing to play much coverage in Week 12, but this Steelers team looks very dangerous.

Going 4-1 down the stretch should be good enough to get Pittsburgh into the Play Offs as a Wild Card team and might even be enough to take the Number 5 Seed. That would mean going to the AFC South winner in the Wild Card Round which should see Pittsburgh building momentum and they will feel they can out-score any team they potentially play from the Divisional Round onwards.

It was Almost the Worst Case Scenario for the New England Patriots

With just three minutes left and controlling the ball, the New England Patriots were looking to run some clock and grab a couple of First Downs that would have won the game in Denver.

But a throw towards Rob Gronkowski almost saw their season go up in flames as the Tight End saw his right knee snapped back and had to be carted off the field.

Outside of Tom Brady, Gronkowski is the one player they can't afford to lose on an Offense that is plagued with injuries. Julian Edelman, Dion Lewis and Danny Amendola were important pieces of the Offense already missing and it didn't look too good for Gronk who was writhing in agony on the slow covered turf.

Fortunately for the Patriots, it looks like their star Tight End has escaped serious injury and he potentially takes to the field this weekend. I don't think New England risk him with a 10-1 record which keeps them as favourites to win the AFC Number 1 Seed and home field advantage so I am expecting Gronkowski back in Week 14.


The Seattle Seahawks weren't so fortunate as Jimmy Graham was ruled out for the season and the big target they acquired in the off-season won't make any Play Off games either. Graham and Russell Wilson just seemed to be getting on the same page too so it is a blow for the Seahawks who need all the Offensive weapons they can get to protect a surprisingly porous Defensive unit.

The Brock Osweiler Era Has Begun in Denver

Before Week 12 there was still a feeling that Peyton Manning would be restored as the Denver Bronco starting Quarter Back as soon as he was healthy to go. That would only change if Brock Osweiler was to have a second solid start in a row, this time against the New England Patriots, and there is little doubt that he passed that test with flying colours.

It would be a huge mistake for Gary Kubiak and the Broncos to turn the Offense back to Manning with the way Osweiler has played in his first two games. He has been more than a simple game manager, making some big throws but most importantly Osweiler hasn't made too many mistakes to put his Defensive unit under pressure.

The running game has been more effective with Osweiler taking the snaps from under Center and the team are fully behind their young Quarter Back which is vitally important for Denver. For many people this has looked a small window for the Broncos to win the Super Bowl and so Kubiak has to go with his best option which looks to be Osweiler.


That is no disrespect to Peyton Manning who has been a Hall of Fame Quarter Back through his career in the NFL. However his mistakes have been terrible and Denver are almost into the Play Offs where Manning doesn't have the best record during his peak years, let alone when he is playing at his current level.

Reports suggest Manning is not quite ready to hang up his cleats, but Denver won't be his home in the 2016 season on his current contract and this does feel like a permanent changing of the guard at the Quarter Back position.

Top Ten

1) Carolina Panthers (11-0): The Carolina Panthers look to be the team to beat and they are very close to picking up home field advantage through the Play Offs.

2) Arizona Cardinals (9-2): The Arizona Cardinals are a little banged up at Running Back which might cause problems in January, but they can take care of business at home.

3) Denver Broncos (9-2): I am sold on Brock Osweiler and think he can do enough coupled with a very good Defensive unit to see the Broncos go very far in the Play Offs.

4) New England Patriots (10-1): Banged up on Offense and that might cause problems for Tom Brady and the Patriots.

5) Cincinnati Bengals (9-2): Andy Dalton and the Cincinnati Bengals could still take the Number 1 Seed in the AFC if they can win out and the Patriots slip, but they have to prove they can play in December and January.

6) Minnesota Vikings (8-3): Could have quietly become the third best team in the NFC, but this week is a chance to prove themselves against the Seattle Seahawks.

7) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-5): They might have lost in Seattle but I still rate them above the Seahawks if they can get Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

8) Seattle Seahawks (6-5): It was a big win for Seattle in Week 12, but they were heavily outgained in terms of yards and had a couple of fortunate plays go their way. Legion of Boom has been terrible defending the pass which is a concern.

9) Kansas City Chiefs (6-5): I am not convinced about this team, but the Chiefs have plenty of momentum behind them which can't be ignored.

10) Green Bay Packers (7-4): The Green Bay Packers have lost their form at the wrong time and Aaron Rodgers is demanding his team get back on track with harder work on the practice field.

Bottom Five

32) Cleveland Browns (2-9): How typical of the Cleveland Browns to lose a game where they had the winning Field Goal only to see it blocked and returned for the winning Touchdown.

31) Tennessee Titans (2-9): This is a team that has been unfortunate in some recent losses, but a long home losing run is hard to ignore. Won't have a better chance to snap it than hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13.

30) Miami Dolphins (4-7): The Miami Dolphins have made more Co-Ordinator changes, but this looks a team that has given up on the season.

29) Dallas Cowboys (3-8): They might still be in the hunt for the NFC East Division, but Tony Romo is done for the regular season and the Dallas Cowboys might start focusing on earning a high Draft Pick.

28) New Orleans Saints (4-7): How pathetic are the New Orleans Saints that they come out of their bye week having fired their Defensive Co-Ordinator and then made Brian Hoyer look like Joe Montana.

Week 12 Picks Recap

I have had some bad weeks in my years of making picks on this blog, but this was by far the most pathetic performance.

2-10...

2-10... I would have been better off tossing a coin with some of the picks made this week and even the Denver Broncos pick only came through thanks to some last minute Brock Osweiler magic.

My Thanksgiving Day Picks were all terrible, but I still don't understand what has happened to the Green Bay Packers to give up games as they have.

It was worse on Sunday with Tampa Bay in a position to cover only to fall apart in the second half after leading at the end of the first half. Eli Manning came out and put the New York Giants in a big hole, while teams like the Miami Dolphins, St Louis Rams and New Orleans Saints were just horrible from the beginning to the end.

So I can't even blame too much bad luck, the picks just stunk and have completely eviscerated the season performance to this point. From a decent position I have moved into a big hole because of that pathetic Week 12, but I have to clear the mind and get back to focusing on what had worked for much of the season.

I don't need to get it all back at once, I just want to get back to winning weeks and see if that can get the season back on track with five regular season weeks to go.

NFL Week 4 Recap 2015 (October 7th)

The first International Series game in London was played in Week 4, although it is not the first time that those unfortunate souls have had to witness a blow out.

There were also a fair few gaps in the Stadium and I still wonder if a franchise in London is really a viable option for the League, even if the NFL has made it clear they are going to go ahead and do that with 2022 the expected time scale for it to happen. Fans of the opposing teams will always attend as they get a chance to watch their favourite team, but changing team allegiances will be difficult as it will be committing people to go to eight regular season games at home.

Maybe I am wrong, but I don't know if there will be sell outs for that while the other logistics in terms of travel, kick off time, the ability to host a Thursday/Sunday/Monday Night Football game, and simply having players willing to move to London to play American Football have yet to be truly broken down and considered.

Those issues have been there for a number of years but the NFL has seemingly put the blinkers on and are full steam ahead for a franchise in London. I expect them to make an announcement that they are perhaps increasing the number of games in London next season and I wouldn't be surprised if that number is four games in two blocks of consecutive games. It is the best way to test whether fans are willing to put their hands in their pockets for consecutive games and one I am looking forward to see how it will work.

Two Years, Two Coaches Fired After First London Game

The Miami Dolphins truly came into the 2015 season with the belief that they can challenge the New England Patriots for the AFC East crown.

So being 1-3 after four games and playing limply in all four games wasn't going to cut it and unsurprisingly Joe Philbin was relieved from his role as Head Coach.

Philbin's 'sad sack' attitude on the sidelines produced some 'sad sack' performances from the team in big moments over the last couple of seasons and this start was never going to be tolerated. Too much money was spent in the off-season to push Miami back into Play Off contention, but the Defense has been appalling even with Ndamukong Suh in the middle of the Defensive Line and Ryan Tannehill has certainly regressed as a Quarter Back.

The bigger surprise is that Kevin Coyle has not been fired as Defensive Co-Ordinator at the time of writing and it looks like he might have escaped any cull with Dan Campbell taking over as Interim Head Coach and being given full power to make any moves he thinks is necessary.

Miami are on a bye week this week and there are plenty of things for them to work on before their next game. The season isn't quite lost yet, but the firing of Joe Philbin might just reinvigorate them and it certainly looks the right decision.

Some fans might already be thinking about who is going to be the next Head Coach, but Dan Campbell is just going to knuckle down and make the Dolphins far more competitive than they have been to open the season.

I wrote last week that Philbin should be gone if Miami were blown out in London so that was pretty much the only positive from the 1-3 start that I can take away.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals For Real?

The AFC North looks to be in the palm of the hand for the Cincinnati Bengals as injuries have hurt their rivals, but their 4-0 start to the season has some perhaps tipping the Bengals to go all the way to the Super Bowl.

Are the Cincinnati Bengals for real?

That can be a difficult question to answer in October when Andy Dalton seems to produce his best football, but I don't think anyone will truly believe in this team until they win a Play Off game. Playing at 1pm on the Eastern Time Zone has proven very effective for Dalton and there are plenty of weapons here to think they can win a Play Off game and perhaps go deep in the post-season.

Cincinnati can run the ball with both Giovani Bernard and Jeremy Hill offering them pace and power in the backfield, while AJ Green and Tyler Eifert give Dalton serious Receiving weapons.

The Defense is most definitely a tough unit as they get a tonne of pressure up front which is protecting the Secondary and I think Cincinnati would have a lot more backers if not for past failures.

This weekend the Bengals host the Seattle Seahawks and a win in that game might get this bandwagon rolling.

The Philadelphia Eagles Need to Get Going

The fans in Philadelphia are never shy about showing their feelings for the Eagles and/or the opponents visiting Lincoln Financial Field and the home town Eagles are the source of their frustration right now.

Chip Kelly made the kind of moves in the last couple of years that will only be tolerated if the Philadelphia Eagles win games, but opening 2015 1-3 has put them under immense pressure.

The much vaunted Offense has struggled to get out of neutral, while the Defense hasn't been able to stop anyone, although Kelly has been fighting his corner by suggesting Philadelphia are two kicks away from being 3-1.

It won't cut it here though, not after moving on the likes of Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson and hitching the wagon to Sam Bradford. The Quarter Back has looked nervous for much of the four games they have played, while DeMarco Murray was the big off-season signing who has barely got positive yardage on the ground.

Kelly's only bonus is his team are in the NFC East which has seen Dallas battered by injuries and the leaders in the Division at 2-2, just a game ahead of Philadelphia. That gives the Head Coach time to turn things around, but he doesn't want to be losing the home game with the 1-3 New Orleans Saints this week else this crowd isn't going to be shy about telling Kelly exactly what they think about him and his new-look team.

Can the Denver Broncos Defense Take Them to the Super Bowl?

Ever since Peyton Manning chose the Denver Broncos as his next stop after the Indianapolis Colts, this team has been built to be a high-scoring team and that was almost enough to win the Super Bowl.

Last season there had been moves made to improve the Defensive side of the ball and Denver looked very good until the final six games of the regular season. That is when Peyton Manning was carrying an injury and the Broncos couldn't do enough Offensively to see off the Colts in the Play Off and they were 'one and done'.

Manning came back this season with the suggestion that the last few games were an aberration in 2014 as he was carrying an injury. However, the first four games haven't inspired too much confidence in Manning who has just one 300 yard passing game and 6 Touchdowns to go with 5 Interceptions.

Instead it has been the Denver Defense that has dominated opponents and helped the Broncos move to a 4-0 record and the question is whether that unit can take the team to the Super Bowl.

I am not sure- they are very good, but they have taken advantage of mistakes made against them and I am not sure the likes of Green Bay or New England will keep them in games as much as Kansas City and Minnesota did in the first four weeks. Both the Patriots and Packers play Denver in the regular season so maybe we will get an idea of how good this Defensive unit can be for the Broncos, but I am beginning to lose faith in Manning at Quarter Back and that to me means losing faith in Denver being able to win it all this season.

Defenses can win Championships, I am just not fully sold on this Defensive unit as being as good as the likes of Seattle and Baltimore in the last few years to be able to do that just yet. Beat Green Bay and New England behind the Defense and I am willing to change that opinion drastically.

Will Colin Kaepernick Become an Effective Quarter Back in the NFL?

That image above was basically Colin Kaepernick enjoying his finest moment as he helped dismantle the Green Bay Packers in a Play Off game, but his read-option Offense has been found out and the Quarter Back has taken a nasty step back.

Questions abound as to whether he is going to be able to hold on as a starter for the San Francisco 49ers who have been killed by the turnovers committed by Kaepernick.

He seems unsure in the pocket which has led to many more sacks and just doesn't seem to read the game at all, but I don't want to draw a line through Kaepernick just yet. He is young and can still improve, but I am not sure you want to do that in front of thousands of fans which is the position he seems to be in at San Francisco.

Teams are almost daring San Francisco to throw the ball knowing they can force mistakes from Kaepernick and his team-mates have looked frustrated during a three game skid when they have been blown away for the most part.

Sitting Kaepernick might ruin his confidence, but it might be the best long-term solution for him as he looks to get comfortable throwing from the pocket. He doesn't have the same scrambling feel of Russell Wilson, as Clay Matthews pointed out succinctly during the Packers win this Sunday, and that means more sacks or more throws from pressurised positions which have led to mistakes.

Kaepernick has always come off a little arrogant and I think that is why some fans are enjoying his struggles so much and maybe being taken out of the limelight helps him. He won't want to sit, but how long can San Francisco allow him to learn on the job when it is hurting the 49ers so badly?

He is already half way to the same number of Interceptions Kaepernick threw all of last season and his Touchdown-Interception ratio is looking terrible at the moment. It does look like San Francisco will go through more pain before this turns around and they might have a big question in the Draft if having a top-five pick with Jim Harbaugh gone and perhaps Kaepernick will need to start to worry.

What is Going On with the Kickers in the NFL?

I couldn't, errr, kick, the Kickers in the NFL when they are down so the image used is of Justin Tucker securing a big win for the Baltimore Ravens over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Thursday.

However, Tucker only had that chance after Josh Scobee missed two very makeable Field Goals which would have given the Steelers a huge win without Ben Roethlisberger.

It was catching through the NFL this week as Kyle Brindza missed some big Field Goals for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers while Randy Bullock had been cut by the Houston Texans last week.

Both Scobee and Brindza joined Bullock this week, but Jason Myers missed two shots to win the game for the Jacksonville Jaguars this week in Indianapolis, while Josh Lambo was saved by an offside in a winning kick for San Diego.

Cody Parkey and Caleb Sturgis have missed big kicks for Philadelphia this season which have effectively cost them a couple of wins too.

So what is happening this season when more kicks seem to be missed than usual? Is it the pressure of the extra point being moved back which is leading to nerves in usual Field Goals? Are Kickers worse than normal?

It's hard to figure out and I am of the belief that it might just be a coincidence that so many kicks are being missed at the moment. I expect that to settle down as the weeks progress, but if I am a Kicker out of a job at the moment, I might be getting my legs warmed up for the try outs that are likely to be going on through the nation.

Top Ten

1) Green Bay Packers (4-0): It was a tough game for the Green Bay Packers at the San Francisco 49ers with some concerns about the Offensive Line, but they remain the favourites to win it all at the end of the season.

2) New England Patriots (3-0): They were on a bye last week, but New England move up thanks to Arizona's defeat at home to the St Louis Rams.

3) Denver Broncos (4-0): As long as the Defense continues to play at the level they are at, Denver are a real threat to win it all as long as Peyton Manning avoids some of the bad throws he has been making. Let's see how they get on when they play the top two teams in my Rankings.

4) Cincinnati Bengals (4-0): I am beginning to think the Bengals might be for real even if it is only October, but a big test for them this week against the Seattle Seahawks.

5) Arizona Cardinals (3-1): I don't want to knock down Arizona too much off one loss when two key turnovers cost them fourteen points in a two point loss.

6) Atlanta Falcons (4-0): Can they complete the NFC East sweep this week? Atlanta have looked strong the last couple of weeks.

7) Seattle Seahawks (2-2): The Seattle Seahawks forced a fumble on the one yard line and then the officials missed a blatant bat out of the back of the End Zone which might have led to a loss to the Detroit Lions. Offensive Line has to improve if they are going to win the Super Bowl.

8) Carolina Panthers (3-0): I wasn't sure about Carolina with their Offensive injuries, but they have looked good and deserve their place in the top ten for the first time.

9) New York Giants (2-2): Could easily be 4-0 if they didn't mess up the clock management at the end of the games with Dallas and Atlanta and have a chance to pull away in the NFC East.

10) Dallas Cowboys (2-2): It might be time to make a Quarter Back change, but the Dallas Cowboys might also say they could easily be 2-0 even with Brandon Weeden at Quarter Back. Defensive reinforcements are back this week but a huge game with the New England Patriots is next on deck.

Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins (1-3): It can only get better from here with Dan Campbell in as Interim Head Coach in the wake of the Joe Philbin firing. The Dolphins should have show more than they have all season.

31) San Francisco 49ers (1-3): Colin Kaepernick doesn't look comfortable at Quarter Back and three heavy losses in a row are hard to ignore.

30) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-3): Jameis Winston is going to have to go through the rookie teething problems he is currently enjoying.

29) Detroit Lions (0-4): They are one play away from beating the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but it is hard to ignore the only team yet to win a game this season.

28) Chicago Bears (1-3): Showed something with Jay Cutler back as Quarter Back, but they will likely be around the bottom five for much of the season.

Week 4 Picks Recap

It is hard to find too much to complain about when you have produced a third winning week in four and continue to send the season totals in a positive direction.

It would have been even better if Josh Scobee knew how to kick a Field Goal as his two misses made the Pittsburgh Steelers pick a push rather than a winner, but I won't complain too much.

The New York Giants, Cincinnati Bengals, Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers all covered easily enough, but the Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans and Arizona Cardinals never looked like getting near to the cover in their games after poor starts.

All in all it is another positive as I look to avoid the big negative weeks which have hit me at times in the past few seasons.

I am seriously considering whether the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts game on Thursday Night Football is going to be a part of the staking plan for Week 5, but remember to check out those picks which should be up from Thursday through Saturday.

Super Bowl XLVIII Pick- Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks (February 2nd 2014)

I can't believe the last five months of the season have come and gone as quickly as they have, but here we are in New York/New Jersey for Super Bowl 48 and I think it is fair to say that the two most deserving teams will get a chance to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Some will argue that the San Francisco 49ers could feel hard done by to not have a chance to avenge their loss against the Baltimore Ravens from Super Bowl 47, but I think the opportunity to have the Number 1 Offense take on the Number 1 Defense is too intriguing to pass up.


Before the Conference Championship Games were decided, I said I believed the NFC team, whoever it was, would beat the AFC representative, but I am also unsurprised that the Denver Broncos are the favourites to win this game. In all honesty, a good Offense will always be more attractive than a good Defense and while the public are pounding the Denver Broncos, they are not overwhelming favourites to win the game with the spread still under the key number 3.

There is every chance that will change either through Saturday night or early Sunday morning as bettors get their wagers to the windows in Vegas, which should in turn have a reaction with the off-shore layers.


So the question from here is whether I have changed my mind about backing the NFC team against the AFC team? Well, let me breakdown how I think the game will go below with the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and then I will make my pick.

This season has been a strong one for the picks, although the Play Offs have been hit and miss with the Conference Championship Games going 1-1 two weeks ago.

I can't complain about the season though, even if a couple of breaks here and there would have meant the Play Offs were a successful month too, especially with one more game to go until we have a six month break from games in the NFL.


Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks Pick: This should be a fantastic Super Bowl with plenty of story lines from Peyton Manning cementing his legacy in the NFL to the young and brash Seattle Seahawks team trying to put their Defense in amongst the very best of all time by adding the Super Bowl to their CV.

Both teams are 15-3 for the season, but there is little doubt that the Seattle Seahawks have come through the harder path over the last five months with big games littered throughout their season in the tough NFC. You have to respect what the Denver Broncos have done this season Offensively, but the AFC was not the same level of competitiveness as the other Conference and their Division does not compare with Seattle's NFC West exploits.

One of the big factors that everyone would have been waiting on was the weather, but that seems to no longer be a big concern with the wind at a reasonable level and little chance of seeing rain. The temperature looks conducive to good football too so the fears that most had when the Super Bowl was awarded to the Met Life Stadium is no longer a concern.

That has to be music to the ears of Peyton Manning, even if he won't admit that openly, because he has not performed to the same level that we expect when the weather does take a turn for the worse. Wind would have been the biggest problem for Manning to overcome having been the only winning Quarter Back in a Super Bowl where rain was a real factor, but he now has a clear chance to join his brother with his second ring.

It will be interesting to see how Manning copes with the Defense that he sees in this game as Denver would not have played a physical unit like the one that Seattle will show him in this game. The referees will be critical to this end as the Seahawks will look to jam the Receivers at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the route running timing that is a key to this whole Denver Offense.

If the referees decide to let them play, Seattle will have a great chance to force turnovers and restrict this Denver Offense from really getting off, but a penalty-happy crew could make it very tough for the Seahawks to use the game that has been so effective for them through the season.

I will assume that the referees are going to let these players play as much as possible, so the Seahawks physical Secondary will cause a lot of problems for this Offense as far as I am concerned. Jamming them at the line of scrimmage is one element, but the pressure the Seahawks get up front is going to be critical in testing this Denver Offensive Line that has managed to keep Peyton Manning upright in their two Play Off games.

Seattle will find it important that they can get pressure with a three or four man rush as that will provide more coverage, while the Defense has also been stout against the run and will likely limit Knowshon Moreno or Montee Ball from out of the backfield. Both Running Backs are likely to be more effective as the check down pass from Manning, but the pressure again will be key to prevent the Quarter Back feeling comfortable in the pocket and forcing him to move around a little.

Disrupting the timing at the line of scrimmage and earning pressure up front will give Seattle a huge chance to slow down an Offense that became the first to surpass 600 points in the regular season. The pressure the Seahawks get up front will also test this Denver Offensive Line, which has held up well through injuries during the season, but who will be facing their toughest opponents in the trenches with the likes of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin capable of cracking the line.

I still expect Denver to move the chains at times, but Kam Chancellor will have the Receivers second guessing themselves when going over the middle to make plays, and Richard Sherman has the chance to prove he really is the best Corner in the NFL as he will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas for much of the game.

This side of the ball has been the most talked about aspect of the Super Bowl over the last two weeks, but the game won't be won and lost on that side of the ball alone.

Denver's Defense hasn't escaped the injury curse that afflicted the Offensive Line with Von Miller and Chris Harris both out for the game, although Champ Bailey will be playing in his first Super Bowl in what could be his final season. Despite these injuries, the Broncos have actually been pretty good against the run all season with the likes of Terrance Knighton improving all the time.

The Broncos have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry all season, but improved that to 3.6 yards per carry over the last three games and limiting Marshawn Lynch is integral to their chances in this game. Keeping Lynch in check will not only stuff the immediate game plan of the Seattle Seahawks, but will also prevent the NFC team controlling the clock and making sure Manning and the powerful Offense is kept off the field, much in the manner that San Diego did in their win in the regular season.

With the way the Denver Defense has played though, the pressure is also very much going to be on Russell Wilson in the biggest game of his career, but he has proved at the College level that he can perform in big games and not be overawed. Wilson has struggled a little down the stretch, but getting Percy Harvin back will give him another Receiving threat.

There are holes in the Denver Secondary that can be exploited, as we saw when Tom Brady missed a couple of wide open Receivers in the Conference Championship loss two weeks ago, but if Wilson can make those throws, he will give his Defense something to protect in terms of points. Harvin is a wild card who could make his biggest impact in the biggest game, although I am interested to see how much Seattle expect from their big off-season trade from the Minnesota Vikings.

If Harvin can give Denver enough to think about, the likes of Golden Tate and Zach Miller can make big catches to keep the Seahawks moving down the field, while Wilson's scrambling ability means he can avoid some of the pass rush. The scrambling also means the Secondary has to stay focused on the Receivers, while Wilson will also be able to pick up some yards on the ground if he is not being spied.

That makes the Seattle Offense a little more interesting too and getting up between 21-24 points will give the Seahawks a real chance to win the game.

Personally, I liked Seattle when the game was set two weeks ago and getting a 3 point head start on the handicap looks a lot of points in what could be a very close game as far as I am concerned.

Both teams will have some success moving the chains, but the intangibles are also leaning towards the Seahawks on this one, although they are playing against Peyton Manning who may not have another chance to play in a Super Bowl (even if I think Denver are the favourites to get back to this point next season as long as Manning returns to Colorado).

The intangibles I talk about are the turnover differential and Seattle have found a way to force those and win that battle through the season which could prove to be the ultimate difference in a game as close as this one. I also believe the Defense is going to cause some real issues for Manning and the Denver Offense, while Russell Wilson has shown his ability to make big plays when he is most needed.

Playing a clean game from a penalty perspective is also all-important for Seattle, but that is a tone the referees have to set early and is the hardest factor to really put a feeling to. If the referees let Seattle play as they have for most of the season, they should cause enough second guessing from Peyton Manning in the game, especially if they get pressure by sending three or four men after the Quarter Back.

 A couple of trends also favour the Seahawks in this one too: The NFC is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 Super Bowl games; the underdog is 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 Super Bowl games.

I also read a statistic that showed the Quarter Back that was the higher rated one by the public is 2-9 against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2000 (the person giving the statistic had two Super Bowls with Quarter Backs that would have been considered level in ability at the time of the Super Bowl game).

Finally, the Number 1 Offense has faced the Number 1 Defense five times previously in the Super Bowl since 1970 and it is the Defense that leads those games 4-1.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the drama of the Super Bowl unfold with Peyton Manning having the ball last with a chance to win the game for the Denver Broncos, but everything is pointing to Seattle as the outright winner in the game and I think they are being given too many points in this one as the City celebrates its first major Championship since 1979.

Super Bowl Prediction: Denver Broncos 21-24 Seattle Seahawks


I don't get involved in too many of the prop betting markets because they tend to be heavily skewed throughout the season, but these could be a fun play for the Super Bowl:

I am not a big fan of prop bets during the season as there simply isn't great value in them, but this is the Super Bowl and everyone has small bets on other markets aside from the main bets they may have.

I am openly admitting that I will be having a few dimes on these prop bets just for the sake of fun, but they could be worth a shot.

For example, Paddy Power are offering 21.00 that we see an Interception returned for a Touchdown in this game- remember the last time Peyton Manning was in a Super Bowl and Tracy Porter picking him to the house for the New Orleans Saints? If Seattle get pressure up front, this Defense could potentially trap a Receiver which leaves a wide open lane for a turnover creating team to take a slant pass for the pick six.

The same company are offering over 5.5 sacks at 3.20 and I think both Quarter Backs could be under pressure in this game, although Russell Wilson is schooled to get rid of the ball if there is no one open down field rather than risk an Interception. That has led to sacks with Wilson dropping deep in the pocket and I also think Seattle will have success getting to Peyton Manning so that looks a decent price.

We haven't seen a Defensive player win Super Bowl MVP for over ten years since Dexter Jackson did that in 2003, but the Seattle Defense has been the strength of their team and if they limit Denver to the points I think, the Super Bowl may have their next Defensive MVP.

Richard Sherman has received so much negative attention following the NFC Conference Championship Game and THAT interview, while the Denver Offense may focus away from hime. However, he leads Seattle with the most Interceptions on the season and another pick off to seal this game could make the 35.00 look a very big price.

Super Bowl XLVII Pick: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bovada (3 Units)

For a very small interest, these three prop markets are my choices for the big game:
Defensive Interception for a Touchdown @ 21.00 (Paddy Power)
Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 3.20 (Paddy Power)
Richard Sherman Super Bowl MVP @ 35.00 (Pinnacle)

Conference Championship: 1-1, - 0.10 Units
Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 85-70-2, + 20.43 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units