NFL Super Bowl LX Pick 2026- New England Patriots vs Seattle Seahawks (Sunday 8th February)

If you go back in time and let people know that this is the Super Bowl that will conclude the 2025 season, I am not sure there will be too many that would believe you.

It may not be quite up to the 'Back to the Future Part II' odds of the Chicago Cubs winning it all in that movie, but the Seahawks were 60-1 and the Patriots 80-1 in the pre-season odds to win the Super Bowl.

None of that matters to the fans of either teams and it will certainly not matter to the Coaching Staff and the players as they look to cement their place in history.

Out of the two teams, it really does feel like the Seattle Seahawks have a significant edge on both sides of the ball, but the NFL season has been a strange one from the start and it would not be a big surprise to anyone if the New England Patriots were to win the first Championship since Tom Brady departed as Quarter Back.

Many would have been hoping the Patriots were going to have to suffer through a long period without success having been the dominant team with Brady and Bill Belichick, but Drake Maye and Mike Vrabel have had plenty to say about that.

Of course there are big stories that can be completed on the other side with Sam Darnold's fight to finally be seen as one of the top players in the position perhaps being determined by the final result. The Seahawkss rebuild has to be admired and of course they have a British Defensive Co-Ordinator in Aden Durde who has been a remarkable success story for others to follow and has helped form a very strong Seattle Defense that looks to be the best unit on the field on either side of the ball.

This has been a tough season for the NFL Picks and snaps a strong run over the last couple of years.

Some of that has been down to what has been an incredibly inconsistent League and perhaps without adjustments being made quickly enough, but it is something to learn from over the next six months before a 'new game' begins.

My Super Bowl thoughts and Pick can be read below.

Super Bowl LX Pick: The AFC Champion New England Patriots (17-3) meet the NFC Champion Seattle Seahawks (16-3) in the Super Bowl, which is the repeat of Super Bowl XLIX played in February 2015. That was a game one by the Patriots, but all Seattle fans will still remember the decision to throw the ball rather than handing it to Marshawn Lynch and seeing that pass Intercepted to prevent the Seahawks from repeating as Champions.

The Seahawks have not been back to the Big Game since then, while the New England Patriots won a couple more Super Bowls with Tom Brady at Quarter Back. The future Hall of Famer has also led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a Super Bowl success, but the New England Patriots had been struggling to find a Brady replacement until this season.

Drake Maye is not the most experienced, but the Quarter Back has been a key part of the turnaround for the Patriots who had won just eight games in the previous two seasons before this stunning 2025 season. Head Coach Mike Vrabel deserves a lot of credit for influencing this roster too, but New England will be the underdog when they face Seattle.

They deserve credit for getting past the Los Angeles Chargers, Houston Texans and Denver Broncos, but it also should be stated that this has not exactly been a 'murderer's row' of opponents. The Chargers and Texans had glaring issues, which were exposed by the Patriots, while the Denver Broncos had to play with a backup Quarter Back and that did make a difference in a close game.

Much of the credit has to be given to the Patriots Defensive unit.

They have really stepped up and will need to be at their best against the Seattle Seahawks who got the better of two Divisional rivals San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams and who have definitely earned their place in the Super Bowl by taking on a much tougher schedule than the one New England have had to play.

All of that won't matter on Sunday in the Super Bowl when it is all about executing properly on the day.

While the Seattle Offensive unit have put up better numbers than the Patriots, the Defensive unit is the stronger for the Seahawks as it is for the AFC Champion.

With that said, it is going to be a game that feels like it is going to be decided by which of the two Defensive units is able to impose themselves the best.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be really important when the Seahawks have the ball- they will want to keep Quarter Back Sam Darnold in third and manageable spots as much as possible and try and keep the pressure from someone who has had a history of struggling in big spots. Over the last month, Sam Darnold has not really had those moments, but there is always a concern about the Quarter Back until he proves there should not be and so the game plan will still involve seeing a lot of Kenneth Walker III.

He is going to be running behind a very good Seattle Offensive Line, but the Patriots have really had a good Playoff clamping down up front and this is going to be a key battleground. You have to feel the Patriots 'must' stop the run and try and see if they can put Sam Darnold in a position where he feels he has to win the game for Seattle, which can lead to mistakes, while the Seahawks missed Zach Charbonnet and his ability to not only pound the rock, but to be that safety blanket for the Quarter Back.

Throwing against this Secondary is going to be a big challenge for Sam Darnold- his favourite Receiver is likely going to be blanketed by New England's best Defensive Back, Christian Gonzalez, and Jaxson Smith-Njigba will be fighting for room, but that will mean focusing on the experience of Cooper Kuup and hoping that Rashid Shaheed can also take the top off the Secondary.

Seattle may ultimately decide that they don't want to make too many mistakes and play the field position and so running the ball is going to be key.

You can say the same on the other side of the ball.

While the Patriots Defensive Line have stepped up the level in the post-season, the Seattle Defensive Line has been one of the best at stopping the run through the campaign.

The Seahawks did have some trouble stopping the Los Angeles Rams running the ball, but that might have something to do with Matt Stafford at Quarter Back and the familiarity the teams had with one another. This time the Seattle game plan may be to ask Drake Maye to beat them with his arm, especially as he is playing behind an Offensive Line that have been much better at run blocking than pass protection.

New England will not shy away from what they want to do and will be happy to play the field position if they have to and that means they will continue to pound the rock for as long and as often as is needed.

Third and long spots will definitely favour the Seahawks who have a decent pass rush and who will certainly have seen the issues New England have had in giving Drake Maye time to throw down the field. Those issues have been compounded by the fact that Maye has struggled to hold onto the ball when he is being Sacked and it is those turnovers that could become a huge factor in the final outcome of the Super Bowl.

Drake Maye will make some plays- he can throw the ball to some experienced Receivers, while he showed he is willing to tuck the ball and run for First Downs when needed. That will help the New England Patriots, but it does feel like the Super Bowl could come down to which of the two Quarter Backs makes the fewest mistakes.

There is also a feeling that the Seattle Defensive unit is the superior of the two that will be on the field on Sunday and that is where the difference could be made with the likelihood that they can win the turnover battle.

The underdog has covered in each of the last five Super Bowls played, while four of those have ended with the underdog earning an outright win.

Everything is pointing to a low scoring game, which is not uncommon in recent Super Bowl games played, and that does make the spread a little more awkward. Having this many points gives the underdog a chance for a backdoor cover in the worst case, but there is an underlying feeling that the Seahawks are much more battle-hardened and have an Offensive unit capable of making one or two more plays than the Patriots.

Keeping stakes relatively low looks to be the best approach with a game that could come down to one or two plays, but the edge before kickoff is with the NFC Champion to win the Super Bowl for a second year in a row and with another cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Seattle Seahawks - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.14 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7% Yield)

Divisional: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)

Wild Card: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 18: 3-4, - 1.51 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.57% Yield)

Week 17: 5-6, - 1.45 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.18% Yield)

Week 16: 3-5, - 2.28 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.50% Yield)

Week 15: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 14: 0-1, - 1 Unit (1 Unit Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 13: 3-4, - 1.50 Units (7 Units Staked, - 21.43% Yield)

Week 12: 1-5, - 4.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.50% Yield)

Week 11: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 10: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.67% Yield)

Week 9: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 8: 4-3, + 0.52 Units (7 Units Staked, + 7.43% Yield)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.69 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.80% Yield)

Week 6: 3-4, - 1.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 15.57% Yield)

Week 5: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)

Week 4: 2-3, - 1.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 22.80% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.56 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Week 1: 0-2, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

2025 Season: 51-66, - 20.45 Units (117 Units Staked, - 17.48% Yield)

NFL Week 14 Recap 2015 (December 16th)

With the Play Offs just three weeks from being put together, the remainder of 2015 is going to bring up some really important games as teams and Head Coaches try and make sure their team is involved in the post-season.

Failing to do that automatically leaves Coaches on the hot seat and there are likely a number of vacancies that will need to be filled in the early part of 2016.

Some don't have to worry about that as the likes of the Carolina Panthers, New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals have all made sure they are amongst the last twelve teams standing in January. This week we will likely see a couple more teams added to the mix, while others are drinking in the last chance saloon as they try and give themselves a shot to make the post-season.

Andy Dalton's Injury May Cost the Cincinnati Bengals

You have to always use words like 'may' and 'might' in circumstances like this, but it would take a brave individual to suggest the Cincinnati Bengals are still a Super Bowl contender with Andy Dalton likely sidelined the rest of the way.

I won't criticise a Quarter Back that is willing to make a tackle when throwing an Interception, but Andy Dalton and the entire Cincinnati Bengals staff, owners and fans must have hoped he had decided against doing that in Week 14.

It was a decision that saw him fracture his thumb, but likely fracture Cincinnati's post-season ambitions. Dalton might not have won a Play Off game yet, but the Bengals were on course for a First Round bye in the Play Offs and he is arguably playing the best of his career so every chance he would have snapped his negative record in the post-season.

Now the keys are turned over to AJ McCarron who has led the Alabama Crimson Tide to a couple of National Championships. There is no shortage of confidence in the McCarron camp who effectively compared himself to Tom Brady after the game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but his actual performance was a little up and down and that inconsistency is not going to cut it in the Play Offs.

It's just hard to say this injury to Dalton isn't anything but a huge blow to Cincinnati and likely to extend their wait for a Play Off spot. I wasn't a huge fan of McCarron at Alabama either so I remain extremely unconvinced he has what it takes to be an effective NFL starting Quarter Back and the last three games of the regular season are huge for him to prove anything different and try to lead the Bengals into a First Round bye.

Jacksonville Jaguars Have an Offense Capable of Big Things, Now they Need the Defensive Pieces

For the last couple of years the Jacksonville Jaguars have looked an improving team, but the last couple of weeks have shown that the Offense is perhaps ready to take off.

Blake Bortles, Allen Hurns, Allen Robinson, Julius Thomas and TY Yeldon are young and effective and Jacksonville showed it all off by hanging 50 on Indianapolis this past week.

This is where the pressure begins to build on Gus Bradley as Head Coach, especially next season.

Bradley came over from Seattle where he had the Defensive Co-Ordinator role until 2012 but the Jacksonville Defensive unit is still a work in progress. They have to get better there if this team is to begin to challenge for the AFC South crown and perhaps get back into the Play Offs and the pressure will be on Bradley to get the answers so they can match what the Offense will give to them.

If the Jaguars fail because the Secondary keeps giving up too many big plays, I do think Bradley will be on the hot seat next season, but for now there is a lot of positives at Jacksonville for the fans to look forward to.

And they are also not quite out of the AFC South race this season too!!

Chuck Pagano and the Indianapolis Colts Will Part Way No Matter How the Season Ends

It was a bizarre Press Conference that Chuck Pagano held on Monday and his quotes makes it clear that he knows his time as Indianapolis Colts Head Coach is coming to an end.

This has been rumoured for much of the season thanks to a discord between him and the General Manager and looks to be the outcome even if the Colts were to win the Super Bowl.

It is quite sad that the relationship looks set to end that way as Pagano has done a good job with this Colts team that had been left in a poor spot when he took over. Yes he had Andrew Luck, but the Colts have looked improved the last couple of years and this year looked to be a genuine Super Bowl contender.

Unfortunately they haven't looked that good all season and even winning the poor AFC South isn't enough to paper over those cracks. Many had the Colts as a potential top two Seed in the AFC, but Luck didn't look right even before his injuries and the Defensive unit has been poor for the most part.

Next week is a huge game to see if the Colts will even be playing in the Play Offs as their grip on the AFC South looks tenuous to say the least, although I am not going to be watching a Charlie Whitehurst vs TJ Yates Quarter Back match up any time soon.

Khalil Mack is Going to be a Disruptive Force in the NFL for Years to Come

For the first time in his career, Peyton Manning must have been pleased he was unable to go for a Football game.

If Manning is banged up now, I have no idea what Khalil Mack would have done to him this past week.

Instead it was Brock Osweiler who took five Sacks from Mack alone as the second year player absolutely destroyed the Denver Offensive Line no matter which side of the Offensive Line he lined up.

Mack looked unbelievable and you can understand why so many Linemen described him as their biggest challenge after his ROOKIE season at the end of last season. He looks like a player that wants to make the best of all he has and Mack could be someone that is a future multiple time Defensive Player of the Year.

It was thanks to him that Oakland managed to come back and beat Denver in Week 14 on the road and his is going to be an integral pieced of this Defense for years to come.

With Derek Carr and Amari Cooper on the Offensive side and Mack on the Defensive side, Oakland have a bright future even if that might not be as the 'Oakland' Raiders.

Biggest Wild Card Threat- Seattle Seahawks or Pittsburgh Steelers?

Back in October when the NFL had a couple of their 'fan days' arranged in the UK, I began to mention the Pittsburgh Steelers as a legitimate Super Bowl contender and arguably the best team in the AFC.

As long as Big Ben could stay healthy.

Of course Ben Roethlisberger is battling through his injuries but the Steelers did lose Le'Veon Bell in that time, although the team is continuing to roll and now looks a real dark horse.

The problem for Pittsburgh is they need to win out and hope the Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs or the New York Jets slip up. I definitely see the Jets failing to win all three games, but the point is that Pittsburgh have work to do if they are to get into the Play Offs.

If they do, the Steelers would be my answer to the question I have posed, but right now I have to go with the Seattle Seahawks.

The Seahawks are almost guaranteed of reaching the Play Offs via a Wild Card spot and not many teams are playing better than them right now. Russell Wilson looks very comfortable, the Defensive unit have upped their game and Seattle have the experience of back to back Super Bowl appearances which you just can't buy.

I have little doubt they finish Number 5 Seed in the NFC which means a road game against the NFC East winner and who would back against the Seahawks there? Things then become more haphazard with teams like Carolina and Arizona in the top two positions (remember both have won AT Seattle this season), but that is when the experience Seattle have can make a big difference.

Seattle tend to get hot in December since Wilson took over as Quarter Back and they are a real threat to get to a third consecutive Super Bowl on their current form. However, my only concern would be that they have picked up momentum a little too early and Seattle escaped a couple of fortunate bounces to win through the Play Offs the last couple of years.

Of course you need that luck, so Seattle are the answer to the question I posed right now... But if Pittsburgh make the Play Offs, I don't think anyone stops them from reaching the Super Bowl and perhaps winning a second one for Mike Tomlin and third for Ben Roethlisberger.

Top Ten

1) Carolina Panther (13-0): Home field is almost secured and this looks to be the best team in the NFL, but plenty of big challenges await.

2) Arizona Cardinals (11-2): I love what Carson Palmer and the Arizona Cardinals have done this season, but I have a couple of concerns about their Defensive pass rush that might be exposed later in the season.

3) New England Patriots (11-2): They will likely win the Number 1 Seed in the AFC and perhaps are getting a little healthier Offensively, although Defensively they are picking up more health issues.

4) Denver Broncos (10-3): The Defensive unit is capable of leading the Denver Broncos all the way to the Super Bowl, but Quarter Back and Receivers have to get on the same page.

5) Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5): I honestly think if this team gets into the Play Offs, they are going to be very difficult to stop getting all the way to Super Bowl 50.

6) Seattle Seahawks (8-5): Very few teams have more experience than this Seattle team at going all the way to the Super Bowl and an extremely hot and dangerous Wild Card.

7) Green Bay Packers (9-4): If Eddie Lacy and James Starks can spark the running game, this team is going to be very strong in the Play Offs.

8) Kansas City Chiefs (8-5): Aside from the Carolina Panthers, no team is on a better winning run than the Kansas City Chiefs. Earning the Number 5 Seed might be good enough for a run to the Divisional Round of the Play Offs, but I can't see them going much further.

9) Cincinnati Bengals (10-3): Andy Dalton's injury leads to a significant drop for the Bengals. How AJ McCarron performs in the last three weeks of the regular season will show us how far Cincinnati can go in the Play Offs.

10) New York Jets (8-5): The Jets might be getting hot at the right time, but they have a tough road to negotiate if they are to make the post-season and then try and make some noise.

Bottom Five

32) Tennessee Titans (3-10): I do wonder if Tennessee have given up on the season with an interim Head Coach and being blown out by the New York Jets.

31) San Diego Chargers (3-10): Philip Rivers is the most under-rated Quarter Back in the NFL in my opinion, but San Diego are so banged up on both sides of the ball that he can't carry this team beyond this point.

30) San Francisco 49ers (4-9): An awful performance on the road at the Cleveland Browns might only be saved if the 49ers earn a very high Draft Pick.

29) Cleveland Browns (3-10): Only thing left this season is to see if Johnny Manziel is not the dope he portrays himself to be and CAN be a franchise Quarter Back for the desperate Cleveland Browns.

28) Baltimore Ravens (4-9): You can't lose players like Joe Flacco, Justin Forsett, Steve Smith and Terrell Suggs and expect to replace them with a 'next man up' frame of mind.

Week 14 Picks Recap

After going 8-3 in Week 13, I was just hoping to put together a very solid Week 14 to get the season totals back up after that horrendous 2-10 Week 12.

I got even more than I could have asked for with the picks going 8-2 in Week 14 to put together a very strong 16-5 two weeks that have covered the terrible Week 12.

That means the season totals are now in a very strong position again, but there are three more regular season weeks left and pushing on and improving on the last two weeks is the plan. I'll keep doing what has been successful the last two weeks and keep looking for the bounces to land my way as they have and we all need a little bit of luck for the picks to go the way we anticipate.

Super Bowl XLIX Pick- Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots (Sunday 1st February 2015)

The time for talking is over as we get set to say goodbye to the 2014 NFL season- the 49th edition of the Super Bowl comes from Arizona as the New England Patriots get set to take on the Seattle Seahawks.

I have taken a few days to really get to grips with my pick and seem to be going with the popular choice from the NFL players and journalists that have made their decision on which team they believe will win the Championship. It is a season when the spread doesn't really matter as the teams can't be separated by the layers so it simply comes down to a choice of which of these teams you believe will win.

I am looking to extend my run to 4 straight Super Bowl winners this season and I have my pick below.


Seattle Seahawks v New England Patriots: For the second season in succession, the Number 1 Seed from the AFC plays the Number 1 Seed from the NFC in the Super Bowl. This year it is the Seattle Seahawks (14-4) taking on the New England Patriots (14-4) in Super Bowl XLIX which will come from the home of the Arizona Cardinals.

Both teams made it to the Super Bowl in contrasting fashion, although the Patriots win has been tainted a little from 'Deflate-Gate' which has dominated the media over the last two weeks. New England crushed the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Conference Championship, but it was later revealed that the balls had not been inflated to the League's minimum requirement, an issue which makes it 'easier' to throw and catch in the rainy conditions we saw at Foxboro two weeks ago.

Most of the Colts team have made it clear that they don't believe there was any reason to think the game would have ended much differently, but the Patriots have previous which has made this a story. It was only a few seasons ago that Bill Belichick was fined half a million dollars and the Patriots lost Draft picks following 'Spy-Gate' when caught filming the signals of their opposition and this is another issue where many are saying the New England successes have not been clean.

The blame on this occasion shifted from Belichick and the spotlight was on Tom Brady, but the NFL have tried to put the issue to bed by saying they will deal with the outcome of their investigation following the Super Bowl. The Patriots may try and use the whole furore to rally the troops together, but they are facing the defending Champions who look to become the first team in ten years to repeat.

The Seattle Seahawks somehow got through the NFC Conference Championship Game against the Green Bay Packers and I am still not sure how they won that game. The Seahawks were down by 12 points with less than five minutes remaining, but it seems the footballing gods were on their side as they converted a number of unbelievable plays to knock off the Packers.

A Touchdown brought Seattle to 5 points behind Green Bay, but they then converted an onside kick, scored another Touchdown before converting a 'Hail Mary' two point play and then scored a winning Touchdown in Overtime. It was one of the most surreal endings to any NFL game that I have seen, let alone one with so much on the line and the Packers must still be wondering how they have lost on 2 of their last 3 visits to the tough Seattle environment.

The big question out of that game against Green Bay was the health of Richard Sherman and Earl Thomas, but both are going to be available this Sunday. Sherman is expected to be a father at some point over the next seven days, but it would be extremely bad timing for him to miss this game.

Sherman has been making himself available to the media all through the week, but one of the more ridiculous stories has been concerning Marshawn Lynch. That isn't me criticising the Running Back either because I think it is a farce to ask Lynch to have to talk to the media when he is clearly not comfortable doing so. We have then been treated to Lynch saying the same thing over and over again for five minutes and writers going home to make headlines about the whole thing... As I said, ridiculous!

The Seattle Seahawks had to come from 13 points behind to beat the New England Patriots when they last met in 2012. That game was played in Seattle and is now known as the 'you mad bro?' Game following a tweet that Richard Sherman sent out after the game.


PICK: I have been going back and forth about this game ever since it was set two weeks ago, but I think I have perhaps been over thinking things. Both the New England Patriots and the Seattle Seahawks match up well against one another, but I was convinced the NFC is the better Conference and I think Seattle prove that by winning back to back Championships.

I will be absolutely honest with you- I don't like either of these teams. Being a Miami Dolphin fan means the New England Patriots will always be a big rival, but they have also been very successful and that does breed a little more dislike. The Seahawks have never really been a team I was overly concerned about, but I can't be the only person who hates seeing any team with their 'bandwagon support' and my dislike comes from the amount of two year fans the Seahawks have picked up.

That does help me clear my head for this game though and look at it from a very cold perspective, which is always the best way when it comes to making picks. I try and put my heart aside when it comes to making picks, but I will admit it couldn't be any easier in this game!

It does seem like the sharps are all over the under at the moment with that total shrinking over the last two weeks and that is understandable. Despite the 40 plus points that New England scored against Indianapolis, the Patriots are not the quick strike Offense that went unbeaten in the regular season in 2007 and instead take a much more methodical approach to their games.

Seattle are the same, although Russell Wilson can air it out at times, and both Defenses are very strong so this game may be 'shortened' with the clock running through plays on the ground and quick passes being completed.

Tom Brady will have success against the Legion of Boom simply because he is unlikely to be testing them deep down the field and instead will look to his possession Receivers like Julian Edelman, Shane Vereen and Rob Gronkowski to take his short passes and produce yards after the catch. LeGarrette Blount is a punishing Running Back, but it won't be easy for him to produce a big game against this Seattle Defense, while the Seahawks will feel they can rattle Brady with their four man pass rush.

I expect the New England Patriots will use the blueprint set out by the San Diego Chargers in a win over Seattle earlier this season, although the Seahawks are playing better now. Philip Rivers used quick plays to prolong drives in a methodical manner which kept the Seattle Defense out of sync and I imagine New England will try and do the same.

If Blount can get something going on the ground, the Patriots will definitely have a chance to win this game, but the feeling is that the Seattle Defense can keep Brady in third and long on enough occasions to force punts or mistakes.

While the Seattle Secondary will receive all the attention thanks to a nice moniker, the New England Secondary is also one of the best in the NFL. Darrelle Revis is very comfortable in the system ran by Bill Belichick and he will take away one Receiver, although Seattle don't have one big threat in those positions. Brandon Browner will want to give away some of the secrets of the Seattle Defense to his team, but the Corner Back can sometimes be a penalty machine in the Secondary and Russell Wilson will know that.

On the other hand, Seattle may not need to make big plays against the Secondary with Marshawn Lynch likely to have a good match up against the Patriots run Defense. New England have actually been an improving unit on the ground, but they haven't faced someone like Lynch who is capable of breaking tackles and creating big gains when there seemingly aren't any.

Lynch might not have the success early in the game, but his style wears down Defenses and the second half might when he explodes for some big gains. The threat is magnified by the fact that Russell Wilson is capable of getting out of the pocket and making gains on the ground and I think it will be tough for the Patriots unless they jump out to a very big lead.

Wilson helped Green Bay do that with his Interceptions thrown, but it is hard to imagine Seattle making those mistakes again and that should keep the running game very much a part of their plans. I also think the Seattle Defense is going to make enough big plays to keep New England from getting too far ahead and my lean is towards Seattle in this game.

Teams playing in back to back Super Bowls haven't played that well in recent seasons, although the last two have managed to win the game. Prior to that, 5 in a row had lost when returning to the Super Bowl, although the Buffalo Bills have accounted for 2 of those back when they reached the Super Bowl in four straight seasons.

There are other trends that really do favour Seattle in this game including the fact that New England have lost the last 2 Super Bowls they have played, both against the New York Giants and one of those in this Stadium. The Patriots also have to overcome the statistic that shows teams scoring 40 or more points in the Play Offs are just 3-22 against the spread in their next game.

Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have also raised their game when they meet teams led by Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs and everything is pointing to them being the right side. I do have respect for Bill Belichick and the Defensive game plan he will have put in place with two weeks preparation for this game, but the NFC is the better Conference and I always felt they are the more likely winner of the Super Bowl this season regardless of which team came through.

The NFC are 4-1 in the Super Bowl over the last five seasons and the only exception was the San Francisco 49ers who had shots at the end zone to beat the Baltimore Ravens two years ago. The spread is virtually a pick 'em now so I will just back the Seattle Seahawks to win.

MY PICK: Seattle Seahawks @ 1.95 Bet Victor (3 Units)

Super Bowl XLVIII Pick- Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks (February 2nd 2014)

I can't believe the last five months of the season have come and gone as quickly as they have, but here we are in New York/New Jersey for Super Bowl 48 and I think it is fair to say that the two most deserving teams will get a chance to play for the Vince Lombardi Trophy.

Some will argue that the San Francisco 49ers could feel hard done by to not have a chance to avenge their loss against the Baltimore Ravens from Super Bowl 47, but I think the opportunity to have the Number 1 Offense take on the Number 1 Defense is too intriguing to pass up.


Before the Conference Championship Games were decided, I said I believed the NFC team, whoever it was, would beat the AFC representative, but I am also unsurprised that the Denver Broncos are the favourites to win this game. In all honesty, a good Offense will always be more attractive than a good Defense and while the public are pounding the Denver Broncos, they are not overwhelming favourites to win the game with the spread still under the key number 3.

There is every chance that will change either through Saturday night or early Sunday morning as bettors get their wagers to the windows in Vegas, which should in turn have a reaction with the off-shore layers.


So the question from here is whether I have changed my mind about backing the NFC team against the AFC team? Well, let me breakdown how I think the game will go below with the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and then I will make my pick.

This season has been a strong one for the picks, although the Play Offs have been hit and miss with the Conference Championship Games going 1-1 two weeks ago.

I can't complain about the season though, even if a couple of breaks here and there would have meant the Play Offs were a successful month too, especially with one more game to go until we have a six month break from games in the NFL.


Denver Broncos v Seattle Seahawks Pick: This should be a fantastic Super Bowl with plenty of story lines from Peyton Manning cementing his legacy in the NFL to the young and brash Seattle Seahawks team trying to put their Defense in amongst the very best of all time by adding the Super Bowl to their CV.

Both teams are 15-3 for the season, but there is little doubt that the Seattle Seahawks have come through the harder path over the last five months with big games littered throughout their season in the tough NFC. You have to respect what the Denver Broncos have done this season Offensively, but the AFC was not the same level of competitiveness as the other Conference and their Division does not compare with Seattle's NFC West exploits.

One of the big factors that everyone would have been waiting on was the weather, but that seems to no longer be a big concern with the wind at a reasonable level and little chance of seeing rain. The temperature looks conducive to good football too so the fears that most had when the Super Bowl was awarded to the Met Life Stadium is no longer a concern.

That has to be music to the ears of Peyton Manning, even if he won't admit that openly, because he has not performed to the same level that we expect when the weather does take a turn for the worse. Wind would have been the biggest problem for Manning to overcome having been the only winning Quarter Back in a Super Bowl where rain was a real factor, but he now has a clear chance to join his brother with his second ring.

It will be interesting to see how Manning copes with the Defense that he sees in this game as Denver would not have played a physical unit like the one that Seattle will show him in this game. The referees will be critical to this end as the Seahawks will look to jam the Receivers at the line of scrimmage to disrupt the route running timing that is a key to this whole Denver Offense.

If the referees decide to let them play, Seattle will have a great chance to force turnovers and restrict this Denver Offense from really getting off, but a penalty-happy crew could make it very tough for the Seahawks to use the game that has been so effective for them through the season.

I will assume that the referees are going to let these players play as much as possible, so the Seahawks physical Secondary will cause a lot of problems for this Offense as far as I am concerned. Jamming them at the line of scrimmage is one element, but the pressure the Seahawks get up front is going to be critical in testing this Denver Offensive Line that has managed to keep Peyton Manning upright in their two Play Off games.

Seattle will find it important that they can get pressure with a three or four man rush as that will provide more coverage, while the Defense has also been stout against the run and will likely limit Knowshon Moreno or Montee Ball from out of the backfield. Both Running Backs are likely to be more effective as the check down pass from Manning, but the pressure again will be key to prevent the Quarter Back feeling comfortable in the pocket and forcing him to move around a little.

Disrupting the timing at the line of scrimmage and earning pressure up front will give Seattle a huge chance to slow down an Offense that became the first to surpass 600 points in the regular season. The pressure the Seahawks get up front will also test this Denver Offensive Line, which has held up well through injuries during the season, but who will be facing their toughest opponents in the trenches with the likes of Michael Bennett, Cliff Avril and Bruce Irvin capable of cracking the line.

I still expect Denver to move the chains at times, but Kam Chancellor will have the Receivers second guessing themselves when going over the middle to make plays, and Richard Sherman has the chance to prove he really is the best Corner in the NFL as he will likely match up with Demaryius Thomas for much of the game.

This side of the ball has been the most talked about aspect of the Super Bowl over the last two weeks, but the game won't be won and lost on that side of the ball alone.

Denver's Defense hasn't escaped the injury curse that afflicted the Offensive Line with Von Miller and Chris Harris both out for the game, although Champ Bailey will be playing in his first Super Bowl in what could be his final season. Despite these injuries, the Broncos have actually been pretty good against the run all season with the likes of Terrance Knighton improving all the time.

The Broncos have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry all season, but improved that to 3.6 yards per carry over the last three games and limiting Marshawn Lynch is integral to their chances in this game. Keeping Lynch in check will not only stuff the immediate game plan of the Seattle Seahawks, but will also prevent the NFC team controlling the clock and making sure Manning and the powerful Offense is kept off the field, much in the manner that San Diego did in their win in the regular season.

With the way the Denver Defense has played though, the pressure is also very much going to be on Russell Wilson in the biggest game of his career, but he has proved at the College level that he can perform in big games and not be overawed. Wilson has struggled a little down the stretch, but getting Percy Harvin back will give him another Receiving threat.

There are holes in the Denver Secondary that can be exploited, as we saw when Tom Brady missed a couple of wide open Receivers in the Conference Championship loss two weeks ago, but if Wilson can make those throws, he will give his Defense something to protect in terms of points. Harvin is a wild card who could make his biggest impact in the biggest game, although I am interested to see how much Seattle expect from their big off-season trade from the Minnesota Vikings.

If Harvin can give Denver enough to think about, the likes of Golden Tate and Zach Miller can make big catches to keep the Seahawks moving down the field, while Wilson's scrambling ability means he can avoid some of the pass rush. The scrambling also means the Secondary has to stay focused on the Receivers, while Wilson will also be able to pick up some yards on the ground if he is not being spied.

That makes the Seattle Offense a little more interesting too and getting up between 21-24 points will give the Seahawks a real chance to win the game.

Personally, I liked Seattle when the game was set two weeks ago and getting a 3 point head start on the handicap looks a lot of points in what could be a very close game as far as I am concerned.

Both teams will have some success moving the chains, but the intangibles are also leaning towards the Seahawks on this one, although they are playing against Peyton Manning who may not have another chance to play in a Super Bowl (even if I think Denver are the favourites to get back to this point next season as long as Manning returns to Colorado).

The intangibles I talk about are the turnover differential and Seattle have found a way to force those and win that battle through the season which could prove to be the ultimate difference in a game as close as this one. I also believe the Defense is going to cause some real issues for Manning and the Denver Offense, while Russell Wilson has shown his ability to make big plays when he is most needed.

Playing a clean game from a penalty perspective is also all-important for Seattle, but that is a tone the referees have to set early and is the hardest factor to really put a feeling to. If the referees let Seattle play as they have for most of the season, they should cause enough second guessing from Peyton Manning in the game, especially if they get pressure by sending three or four men after the Quarter Back.

 A couple of trends also favour the Seahawks in this one too: The NFC is 8-3 against the spread in the last 11 Super Bowl games; the underdog is 9-3 against the spread in the last 12 Super Bowl games.

I also read a statistic that showed the Quarter Back that was the higher rated one by the public is 2-9 against the spread in the Super Bowl since 2000 (the person giving the statistic had two Super Bowls with Quarter Backs that would have been considered level in ability at the time of the Super Bowl game).

Finally, the Number 1 Offense has faced the Number 1 Defense five times previously in the Super Bowl since 1970 and it is the Defense that leads those games 4-1.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the drama of the Super Bowl unfold with Peyton Manning having the ball last with a chance to win the game for the Denver Broncos, but everything is pointing to Seattle as the outright winner in the game and I think they are being given too many points in this one as the City celebrates its first major Championship since 1979.

Super Bowl Prediction: Denver Broncos 21-24 Seattle Seahawks


I don't get involved in too many of the prop betting markets because they tend to be heavily skewed throughout the season, but these could be a fun play for the Super Bowl:

I am not a big fan of prop bets during the season as there simply isn't great value in them, but this is the Super Bowl and everyone has small bets on other markets aside from the main bets they may have.

I am openly admitting that I will be having a few dimes on these prop bets just for the sake of fun, but they could be worth a shot.

For example, Paddy Power are offering 21.00 that we see an Interception returned for a Touchdown in this game- remember the last time Peyton Manning was in a Super Bowl and Tracy Porter picking him to the house for the New Orleans Saints? If Seattle get pressure up front, this Defense could potentially trap a Receiver which leaves a wide open lane for a turnover creating team to take a slant pass for the pick six.

The same company are offering over 5.5 sacks at 3.20 and I think both Quarter Backs could be under pressure in this game, although Russell Wilson is schooled to get rid of the ball if there is no one open down field rather than risk an Interception. That has led to sacks with Wilson dropping deep in the pocket and I also think Seattle will have success getting to Peyton Manning so that looks a decent price.

We haven't seen a Defensive player win Super Bowl MVP for over ten years since Dexter Jackson did that in 2003, but the Seattle Defense has been the strength of their team and if they limit Denver to the points I think, the Super Bowl may have their next Defensive MVP.

Richard Sherman has received so much negative attention following the NFC Conference Championship Game and THAT interview, while the Denver Offense may focus away from hime. However, he leads Seattle with the most Interceptions on the season and another pick off to seal this game could make the 35.00 look a very big price.

Super Bowl XLVII Pick: Seattle Seahawks + 3 Points @ 1.92 Bovada (3 Units)

For a very small interest, these three prop markets are my choices for the big game:
Defensive Interception for a Touchdown @ 21.00 (Paddy Power)
Over 5.5 Total Sacks @ 3.20 (Paddy Power)
Richard Sherman Super Bowl MVP @ 35.00 (Pinnacle)

Conference Championship: 1-1, - 0.10 Units
Divisional Round: 1-3, - 4 Units
Wild Card Round: 2-2, - 0.10 Units
Week 17: 7-1, + 10.68 Units
Week 16: 4-6, - 4.23 Units
Week 15: 2-6, - 5.32 Units
Week 14: 5-4, + 0.54 Units
Week 13: 6-4-1, + 3.65 Units
Week 12: 6-4, + 1.43 Units
Week 11: 6-2, + 7.59 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.86 Units
Week 9: 2-5, - 4.24 Units
Week 8: 5-3, + 4.64 Units
Week 7: 7-2, + 5.70 Units
Week 6: 2-7, - 8.15 Units
Week 5: 4-4, + 0.35 Units
Week 4: 7-1, + 9.27 Units
Week 3: 3-4-1, - 1.10 Units
Week 2: 6-1, + 6.46 Units

Week 1: 5-6, - 3.50 Units

Season 2013: 85-70-2, + 20.43 Units

Season 2012: - 4.78 Units

The NFL is back... but who has made the best moves?

It has been a crazy week in the NFL as the lockout was lifted after a 4 month work stoppage and that left teams working incredibly hard to get Free Agents signed up- all of this led to an exciting period of 72 hours after the lockout was lifted that deals seemed to be coming in left, right and centre.

I just thought it was time, especially as a lot of deals have gone through, to check out which of the teams in the coming season will likely improve and which may just have taken a step back.

The teams I have picked is solely on the moves made so far and I will have a proper run through the Divisions closer to the season start on September 8th while also putting up my ante-post picks then.

Teams that have Improved
Philadelphia Eagles: Where else can you start but the Philadelphia Eagles, especially considering they made the biggest move in Free Agency when picking up Nnamdi Asomugha. The CB positions had been a bit of a problem last season but the move for Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has seriously upgraded the pass defense. Asante Samuel is also still on the roster and the Eagles have improved significantly in a pass-dominated League.


Justin Babin is another exceptional move to place additional pressure on the opposition QB and there is a definite feel the Eagles are set to win now and surpass their Play Off loss from last season.


A slight downgrade in my opinion is the loss of Kevin Kolb and signing Vince Young as backup to Michael Vick- Kolb was clearly going to move on as soon as it was confirmed that Vick was the starter so that was no surprise, but Vick's style of play makes it almost inevitable that Young will have to come in at some point.


The NFC East is notoriously a tough Division so a serious injury to Michael Vick could lead to a lot of problems for the Eagles in even making the Play Offs unless Young can perform to a much higher level than he had in his last season at Tennessee.


The offense was less of a concern last season, and it is expected that DeSean Jackson will not holdout so I still expect the Eagles to be able to put up their points... Now they may not need to get involved in shoot outs if the defense can click.




Arizona Cardinals: I liked the Arizona move for Kevin Kolb, although there is a feeling they gave up a little too much for him. Ken Whisenhunt has basically bet his job that Kolb is a success in the desert and the team is in the weak NFC West.


Kolb will get a chance to throw to Larry Fitzgerald, one of the best receivers in the game, but the loss of Steve Breaston will mean the options that were available to Kurt Warner have been reduced significantly.


Todd Heap could be a big addition to the offense as long as he can stay healthy and there is talk that they are looking to add Braylon Edwards to the team to play opposite Fitzgerald which would make the Cardinals a real threat in this weak Division.


Patrick Peterson was the stand out CB in the Draft and a lot of big things have been expected of him- he will be in the line up to replace Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who was dealt to the Eagles in the Kolb trade.




Teams that have gone Backwards
Washington Redskins: Don't get me wrong, there isn't far to fall from a 6-10 record but I think Washington may just do that after seeing some of the early moves they have made since the lockout was lifted.

Mike Shanahan was brought into Washington to turn this franchise around but I have a feeling it is going to be a season of frustration for them and they may be in line to win the 'Andrew Luck Sweepstakes' next April. The trading away of Donovan McNabb was to be expected, but going into the season with John Beck and Rex Grossman competing for the starting job at QB is unlikely to inspire the fans.

Albert Haynesworth was another who fell foul of Shanahan and was moved on, to the New England Patriots in this case, but the expected moves in the Free Agency market have not developed.


Tim Hightower was traded in from the Arizona Cardinals to provide yet another body in the backfield, but it has been a tough time to be a Redskins fan and it looks like being a long season at this juncture.




Seattle Seahawks: I am sure when the Seattle Seahawks finally move Matt Hasselbeck on from the QB position that the fans were expecting either Matt Leinart to once again join Pete Carroll, or a trade for Carson Palmer would be organised.


However, Leinart has signed with Houston and Palmer remains retired after Cincinnati refused to trade him and that means Tavaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst will be challenging one another for the starting spot.


The NFC West is not a great Division, but Arizona look a lot more threatening and I expect the San Francisco 49ers will improve and this spells trouble for the reigning Division winners. The team is clearly looking to get younger and that could mean a tough season- I dont think a 7-9 record will win the West this season and I think the Seahawks are going to have a downturn.