Back in Week 2 of the season my early thoughts on the year had identified the Kansas City Chiefs as the favourites and the Philadelphia Eagles as a team that could have enough improvement to turn things around after the poor end to the 2023 season and with Head Coach Nick Sirianni barely clinging onto his role.
It has proven to be the right decision, even if Sirianni and the fans were not always reading from the same page during the season and a repeat of Super Bowl LVII looks a very strong way to end the season.
If the game is anything like that one two years ago, this could be a brilliant Super Bowl in New Orleans.
The NFL might not have any competitive action until early September following the Super Bowl, but this is not a sport that will be quiet over those months with teams preparing for the 2025 season.
Free Agency and the Draft will draw plenty of attention, while it has already been a big week for international fans of the NFL after news was announced that Melbourne, Madrid and Dublin will be hosting games featuring Los Angeles Rams, Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers as designated home teams. The fans in Australia will have to wait until 2026, but Madrid and Dublin join the international party later in the year.
London will still have three games and Berlin will host one too as the NFL continues to expand the boundaries of the sport and there could yet be further additions to the international schedule.
Another NFL season is going to finish with a positive return for the Picks on these pages and there can never be any complaints about that.
The Playoff results have been mixed, but the strong Wild Card Round has been the key to a positive post-season run too with just one more Pick to be made in the 2025 season.
Kansas City Chiefs vs Philadelphia Eagles Pick: Two years ago, the Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) edged out the Philadelphia Eagles (17-3) thanks to a Field Goal being scored with just eight seconds left in Super Bowl LVII.
There would have been a lot of regret on the Philadelphia sideline considering they had secured many more yards than the Kansas City Chiefs in the game and the Eagles were looking the stronger team as the game was ticking down in the Fourth Quarter.
Last season was a disappointing one for the Eagles, while the Kansas City Chiefs ended up repeating, but the two best teams in the NFL meet again in Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans and there is plenty on the line for both.
For a team that has won seventeen games, there are still one or two questions about the Kansas City Chiefs that perhaps leads to some doubting their ability to become the first team to win three straight Championships in the Super Bowl era. It would be a remarkable achievement, but there is plenty of reason to think that the Philadelphia Eagles are the toughest team they could have faced in the Super Bowl.
Doubting Patrick Mahomes would be a big mistake and it would be incredible if the Eagles are underestimating this Kansas City Quarter Back.
When Kansas City have the ball, the pressure may be on Patrick Mahomes to make the plays for his team, and he has shown in the post-season that he is capable of tucking the ball and looking to keep the Chiefs in front of the chains.
Offensively the Chiefs do not match up as they would like with the Philadelphia Eagles- while recent opponents have had some success running the ball against the Eagles Defensive Line, the Kansas City Chiefs have not found sustained success on the ground and instead it may be the odd look that helps get someone loose.
It is unlikely to be a traditional running game and so Patrick Mahomes is going to be asked to make plays through the air against one of the stronger Secondaries in the NFL this season.
Again, it is simply not an option to doubt Mahomes and his ability to attack the Secondary with some success and Kansas City have got some key Receivers back into action over the last month, which will help. Patrick Mahomes is capable of making the clutch throw and the Kansas City Chiefs seem to find a way to put a scoring drive together when they really need to do that, while Head Coach Andy Reid will have prepared to find a way to exploit gaps in the Philadelphia Secondary.
The Patrick Mahomes record against Vic Fangio cannot be ignored either, but there still has to be a feeling inside the Eagles camp that they can at least stall some drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of winning this game.
It is the Philadelphia Offensive Line and Saquon Barkley that are going to be all important in this game- you know the Eagles will go as far as the Offensive Line will carry them, especially with a Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back and his ability to make plays with his legs too, but it is also key to draw out drives and wear down the Kansas City Chiefs up front, and leave Patrick Mahomes stewing on the sidelines while waiting his turn.
Over the season, Kansas City's Defensive Line have played pretty well, but there have been signs of some weakness during this post-season run.
Joe Mixon and James Cook have had big games against the Chiefs in the Playoffs and now they have to deal with Saquon Barkley and this powerful Eagles Offensive Line. There has been no doubt about how strong Philadelphia have been when it comes to punishing teams on the ground and Barkley could have yet another big performance to round out what has been a very special first year with the Eagles.
Those two Running Backs had big games, but so did CJ Stroud and Josh Allen as Quarter Backs very comfortable running with the ball and Jalen Hurts can follow suit here.
It could be very important for Jalen Hurts to be given some time when he does choose to target his big name Receivers down the field, especially against this Chiefs Secondary, and the Quarter Back may just help Philadelphia earn their revenge.
Without the same kind of running support, Patrick Mahomes could find himself under siege at times by a very strong and effective Philadelphia pass rush and the narrow lean is with the Eagles to earn revenge.
Opposing Patrick Mahomes is never an easy decision and he has been very good in the Playoffs, while also being a player that has a very strong covering record when the Kansas City Chiefs are dealing with a spread that covers them between a three point underdog or favourite.
The Chiefs are going for an unprecedented three-peat in the NFL, but it should be noted that the last two Super Bowl wins have both been as the narrow underdog and this time they are favoured. Over recent seasons, the underdog has actually been the right play when it comes to the spread and those two Kansas City wins have pushed the underdog to 17-6 against the spread in the last twenty-three Super Bowls played.
You may believe that being a higher Seed heading into the Super Bowl or having the superior regular season record is important, but those teams have actually been on the wrong end of the final Super Bowl score far too often. The higher Seed is now 2-16-2 against the spread over the last twenty-seven years (equal Seeds make up the remainder), while the team with the better regular season record is 1-16 against the spread in the last seventeen Super Bowls when that applies.
This is going to be close and it would not be a surprise if it comes down to another late Field Goal kick, but the Philadelphia Eagles might have been preparing to beat the Kansas City Chiefs ever since losing the Super Bowl two years ago. They look to match up well with the Chiefs on both sides of the ball and the Eagles Offensive Line can lead the NFC team to a second Super Bowl Championship in the history of the franchise.
MY PICK: Philadelphia Eagles + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Championship: 1-1, - 0.15 Units (2 Units Staked, - 7.5% Yield)
Divisional: 1-1-2, - 0.09 Units (4 Units Staked, - 2.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)
Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)
Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)
Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)
Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Season 2024: + 5.75 Units
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