There were four Tennis Picks in action on Wednesday (with one holdover from Tuesday) and three were able to return as winners to get the week totals back on track.
More is needed to turn the red into black, and the focus remains on the ATP Doha event where the Quarter Final matches are all to be played on Thursday.
Upsets in Dubai have given the Quarter Final lineup a slightly unfamiliar look and those matches all looked tough to call, while the ATP Rio event is just operating on a slightly different schedule with the Quarter Final matches not set to be played until Friday.
Andrey Rublev + 2.5 games v Alex De Minaur: Two top ten Ranked players meet in the ATP 500 Doha Quarter Finals on Thursday and both Andrey Rublev and Alex De Minaur will be feeling pretty good about the tennis they have produced so far this week.
They are very familiar with one another and this is going to be the eighth time they have faced each other on the Tour- six of the previous seven matches have been on hard courts and that includes a match at the Australian Open.
It has been twelve months since Alex De Minaur beat Andrey Rublev in the Rotterdam Quarter Final and that is the last time the players have faced off.
During that week, Andrey Rublev had been the higher Ranked player, but he is the World Number 10 in Doha and Alex De Minaur is the World Number 8. Improving those marks will be tough this week, but it is important for Rublev and De Minaur to just build some momentum ahead of another big event in Dubai next week and then the two North American Masters events to be played next month before the whole Tour turns attention to the clay courts.
Both players have been serving really well this week, but Alex De Minaur has produced better on the return and that is perhaps the reason he has been set as the favourite in this Quarter Final.
No one should doubt the improvements made by the Australian, but the Andrey Rublev tennis can match up pretty well with De Minaur with the aggression of the Russian capable of seeing him break through the Alex De Minaur defences.
However, it is perhaps correct to have Andrey Rublev down as the narrow underdog because of the slightly inconsistent play in the early part of 2025. His return game has not quite been as effective as it can be, but Rublev should be able to push Alex De Minaur and winning a set might put the lower Ranked player in a position to cover the spread with the games being given to him.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Felix Auger-Aliassime: The three year anniversary of Daniil Medvedev becoming World Number 1 is coming up later this month, but he is operating as the World Number 6 these days.
The numbers on the hard courts dipped significantly in 2024 from the standards that Daniil Medvedev has set for him in recent years during a time when he was right up amongst the best players in the world on the surface. He is still a very good hard court player, but opponents may feel they have more of a chance against Daniil Medvedev, even if the early form in 2025 is trending back in a positive direction.
An early exit at the Australian Open will feel like a disappointment, but the Semi Final run in Marseille earlier this month may just have restored some confidence and Daniil Medvedev has played well in his two wins here in Doha.
In reality the numbers being produced are aided by the fact that Daniil Medvedev has yet to play a top 20 Ranked opponent in 2025 and he will not be facing one of those in the Doha Quarter Finals.
Felix Auger-Aliassime is the opponent and he needs to reach the Final in Doha to move back inside the top 20 having struggled for consistency on the Tour for some time now.
Suggesting the Canadian is inconsistent might sound foolish considering he has won two titles already this season, but Felix Auger-Aliassime has also lost early at the Australian Open and in Rotterdam.
Winning the title in Adelaide saw Felix Auger-Aliassime win some matches against top opponents, but it cannot be ignored that he did not beat anyone Ranked higher than 71 when winning the title in Montpellier. His sole win here was against the World Number 79 before receiving a walkover and so the 24 year old still has much to prove about where his tennis currently stands.
Serving well has not been an issue for Felix Auger-Aliassime, but he continues to struggle for consistency on the return and that has proven to be tough to overcome against Daniil Medvedev.
Felix Auger-Aliassime did win their last meeting on the clay at the Paris Olympics last year, but the seven previous matches had all ended in defeat and all on the hard courts.
There has been a huge difference in the returning numbers in those hard court matches, including at the Australian Open in January 2024, and Daniil Medvedev may just come through on those big Break Points played.
The lower Ranked player has won four consecutive matches against top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts, but this has not been the best match up for Felix Auger-Aliassime and that gives Daniil Medvedev the edge in this Quarter Final.
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 games v Jiri Lehecka: This is a wide spread to cover and especially in a Quarter Final at an ATP 500 event, but Carlos Alcaraz is playing at a steady level in Doha and will be entering the match with real confidence.
Steady may not be doing the World Number 3 much justice- he has been serving well and Carlos Alcaraz has won 42% of return points played in each of the two wins that have been put on the board.
A title has been secured in Rotterdam after the disappointing defeat to Novak Djokovic in the Australian Open Quarter Final, but Carlos Alcaraz may still feel there is room for improvement in his tennis and especially if he is going to get closer to Jannik Sinner in the World Rankings.
The Spaniard most definitely feels like an improving player on the hard courts and there is plenty to like from what Carlos Alcaraz has displayed through the early part of the 2025 season.
Next up is Jiri Lehecka, who is one win away from setting a new career high World Ranking mark, and who has won plenty of hard court matches already this season. Like his opponent, Jiri Lehecka has picked up a title on the surface and only an injury curtailed his tournament in Rotterdam earlier this month.
Having a slight break from competitive tennis has seemingly helped and Jiri Lehecka has offered little encouragement for the opponent in each of the two wins in Doha.
The serve has been a big weapon for the World Number 25 and it has freed Jiri Lehecka when it comes to attacking the return.
However, it is hard to believe Jiri Lehecka can maintain his return numbers at their current level considering what we have seen from the player in recent years.
He also has plenty to prove against one of the top players on the Tour after Jiri Lehecka was beaten in routine fashion by Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open last month. The 3-4 record against top 10 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months offers some encouragement, but Jiri Lehecka has found himself under extreme pressure to serve very well with his limited return game exposed in those matches.
That was the case when Jiri Lehecka was beaten by Carlos Alcaraz on the grass courts of Queen's a little over eighteen months ago and the former may just struggle to stay with the World Number 3. Jiri Lehecka will look to try and build pressure with his serve, but Carlos Alcaraz can neutralise the shot and get himself into the rallies where he can just out-perform the lower Ranked player and cover a big mark with a solid Quarter Final win.
MY PICKS: Andrey Rublev + 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Carlos Alcaraz - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 5-5, - 0.63 Units (10 Units Staked, - 6.30% Yield)
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