2025 has opened up without too many days like the one that occurred on Tuesday.
Two selections completed matches and both players had the majority of Break Points, but were not able to protect serve at key moments.
Coco Gauff's poor form continued, but Elina Svitolina's defeat stung considering she had over three times as many Break Points in the defeat to Clara Tauson. There isn't much you can do about that and the reality is that the Picks should have ended the day at least at 1-1, but the selection process was correct as players won't lose too many matches in which they have dominated the Break Point count as much as Elina Svitolina did.
Rain in Dubai has meant a number of Second Round matches were pushed back to Wednesday and the winners are likely going to be back out for Third Round action later in the day.
The Second Round is also scheduled to be completed at the ATP 500 event in Dubai and that is the focus for the Tennis Picks with the markets for Rio de Janeiro yet to be fully released.
Any selections from that tournament will be added to this thread.
Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Botic Van De Zandschulp: The ATP run through the Middle East is not as valuable in terms of Ranking points compared with the WTA 1000 events held in Doha and Dubai, but that has not taken away from the financial rewards on offer.
Unsurprisingly those rewards have attracted some of the biggest names on the Tour ahead of the back to back Masters in Indian Wells and Miami.
Alex De Minaur may have to beat one or two players with bigger names than himself to win the title in Doha, but the Australian has to be considered a definite threat to win after reaching the Final in Rotterdam. He was a solid winner in his opening match here in Doha and the Number 2 Seed in the tournament is strongly favoured to make it through to the Quarter Final.
He will have a respect for Botic Van De Zandschulp who has come through Qualifying in Doha and also won his First Round match.
However, it will be noted that none of those wins in the run to the Second Round have been against an opponent Ranked higher than World Number 92, while Botic Van De Zandschulp had opened the season with five straight defeats on the hard courts. This has meant his own World Ranking has dropped to 87 and it is important to just pick up some wins to avoid being in a position where the 29 year old has to face Qualifying matches to even take part in Grand Slam events.
Upsetting a top ten opponent would really open things up for Botic Van De Zandschulp, but that may be asking too much having already suffered a relatively straight-forward defeat to Alex De Minaur at the Australian Open last month.
Botic Van De Zandschulp has a serve that can make him dangerous when operating at his best, but he has not been as consistent behind this shot in 2025. He has taken sets in losses to Carlos Alcaraz and Lorenzo Sonego since the Australian Open and that will offer the Dutchman some confidence, but he is facing a very consistent opponent in Alex De Minaur and one that has been focused enough to beat those players he is expected to beat.
The serve has been well protected in the main and Alex De Minaur has found his spots against Botic Van De Zandschulp, which has kept the pressure on this opponent.
Doing the same here in Doha could see the World Number 8 have the majority of the Break Points and he should be able to play those big points well enough to edge past this spread set.
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 games v Nuno Borges: Early defeats in Hong Kong and at the Australian Open would have dented the confidence of Andrey Rublev, especially as it would have followed on from a poor end to 2024.
He is just about hanging onto his top ten World Ranking, but Rublev has given himself a boost by reaching the Semi Final in Montpellier and Quarter Final in Rotterdam, two indoor hard court events. A comfortable First Round win in Doha will only have bolstered his belief and Andrey Rublev can get the better of Nuno Borges on Wednesday.
The serve has not been much of a problem for Andrey Rublev, but there is a significant drop in his returning numbers and that is something the World Number 10 will be looking to improve.
Nuno Borges reached a career high World Ranking as recently as September last year, but he has slipped backwards since then and the 27 year old is going to be challenged to maintain the consistency needed to hang around the top 40 of the World Rankings.
The season started much more strongly for Nuno Borges compared with Andrey Rublev, but he has not played a lot of tennis since the Australian Open. In Marseille he was beaten in his second match and Borges has taken advantage of facing a Lucky Loser in the First Round here in Doha, so there is a considerable step upwards in terms of level of opponent he is facing.
Much like Andrey Rublev, Nuno Borges will feel that he is serving well enough on the hard courts, but not backing up his tennis as well as he would like when it comes to the return.
However, the edge has to be with the higher Ranked player, especially on the serve and Andrey Rublev can use that shot to set himself up for a solid win.
These players met at the back end of 2024 on an indoor hard court, which resulted in a relatively comfortable win for Andrey Rublev. You do have to expect Nuno Borges to offer more resistance on the serve than he did on that day, but Andrey Rublev may still create the majority of Break Points in the match and just find a way to secure a couple of breaks, which should be enough to cover this spread.
Matteo Berrettini-Tallon Griekspoor over 24.5 games: There is still some way to go before Matteo Berrettini can say he is back at the level of tennis that took him to World Number 6.
Injuries have been an issue for the Italian, and three losses in four matches played before this tournament in Doha will not have raised the confidence levels.
With that in mind, Matteo Berrettini will be feeling much better about himself after upsetting Novak Djokovic in the First Round here and an opportunity has opened up for a deep run and picking up some valuable Ranking points. The serve has continued to be a big weapon for Berrettini, but he will be encouraged by his return success in the win over Novak Djokovic and that is the area of his tennis that has plenty of scope for improvement.
Even at his best, Matteo Berrettini was an inconsistent return player and it was the scoreboard pressure that helped when he was rolling through his own service games.
He could have success doing that in this Second Round match in Doha against Tallon Griekspoor, the World Number 51 who has an inconsistent record on the hard courts.
Much of that is down to the fact that Tallon Griekspoor has had serious trouble on his return and this could be on show when he faces a serve as potent as the one that Matteo Berrettini brings to the court.
When these two met earlier this month in Rotterdam, both players were very effective behind serve, although Berrettini will be frustrated that he was beaten.
Matteo Berrettini won 82% of his service points played compared with Tallon Griekspoor's 75% mark, but it will be tough for either of these players to find breaks of serve if they can get close to those levels again. Tie-breakers could be needed again having played two in three sets in Rotterdam and it would not be a huge surprise if the these players are able to dominate behind serve again.
MY PICKS: Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Andrey Rublev - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Matteo Berrettini-Tallon Griekspoor Over 23.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-4, - 2.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
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