Boxing Picks 2023- Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou (October 28th)

The rumours continue to swirl that we may yet have an announcement for the Undisputed Heavyweight Championship fight to take place at the end of 2023, but before that Tyson Fury, the WBC Champion, will be taking part in an exhibition against a novice opponent who was a King in the Octagon.

These crossover fights are appealing to some, but the reality is that something crazy will have to happen for Fury to lose.

Most important is to avoid any injury that would delay the bout with Oleksandr Usyk into 2024 and that will be at the forefront of all associated with putting that Undisputed Heavyweight Fight together.

It is a decent enough undercard to the main event with some solid Heavyweight action- some of the fighters will be looking to get into World Title fights within the next twelve months, while others are rebuilding and there is a big bout at domestic level between two unbeaten fighters looking to grow while the top names fight it out for the World Titles.

We are a week on from a couple of decent, if unspectacular cards, and you cannot help feel that Jack Catterall failed to really impose himself on Jorge Linares, a veteran who clearly had one foot in retirement before the fight. It looked like a showcase fight for Catterall, but Eddie Hearn has to be wondering how he can position a fighter that has a less than fan-friendly style and who doesn't have a World Title to at least entice others to step into the ring with him.

The rematch with Josh Taylor perhaps makes best sense for both the former Undisputed Light Welterweight Champion and Jack Catterall with the easy build we would have. A catchweight of around 143 pounds would make sense for both and that might be the best avenue to explore after a less than impressive time for either fighter since their first meeting in the ring last year.

Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou

It says plenty that we have yet to really be given clear indication whether the main event in Saudi Arabia is a professional fight or an exhibition.

To make things that much more murky, the Tyson Fury vs Francis Ngannou fight will not be taking place in the same ring as those competing on the undercard. A part of the reason is that there are other events taking place in the 'main' Arena before Fury and Ngannou head out, but it again raises some questions as to how 'competitive' this one is going to be.

Without the signed fight against Oleksandr Usyk in place, you would imagine that Tyson Fury would approach this with plenty of show-business behind him as he did on his return from a long lay off. Even between the Deontay Wilder fights, Tyson Fury would take on relatively easy touches and spend as much time preparing the show to get to the ring as he would in preparing for his opponent.

More has to be expected in Saudi Arabia, but the potential for the Usyk fight to land in December, just eight weeks after this fight, means Tyson Fury should be more focused and looking to make a statement.

The reality is that this fight is going to go as far and long as Tyson Fury wants.

Francis Ngannou deserves the money he is making and you cannot begrudge him that considering the hard route taken to become UFC Heavyweight Champion before he walked away from the company. It still feels like he will have a route back to that company in the months ahead, even after Jon Jones picked up a serious injury, but you also have to accept that Francis Ngannou is a complete novice when it comes to boxing at this level.

Some of the names on the Tyson Fury resume have been criticised by his naysayers, but Francis Ngannou would be an underdog against most of them and the nuances of this discipline will mean anything other than a Fury win would be a surprise.

Will he want to go Rounds and give the fans a bit of entertainment? Or does Tyson Fury have a look in the First Round and quickly move through the gears to make sure he is not leaving anything to chance to scupper that Undisputed Heavyweight Fight that could take place before the end of the year?

My feeling has to be with the latter and the Heavyweights will find it much harder to carry one another like Floyd Mayweather seemingly did against Conor McGregor.

Tyson Fury was able to keep Dereck Chisora going into the Tenth Round, but he has beaten the likes of Sefer Seferi, Tom Schwarz and Dillian Whyte much more quickly than that. He won't harbour too many ill-feelings towards Ngannou, but Fury will likely know that he cannot risk any cut or injury that pushes back the fight with Usyk and the feeling is that he quickly turns on the style to win this one relatively early.

A Heavyweight undercard has been put together, which should provide some entertainment for those tuning in for more than the crossover bout at the top of the card.

One of the big prospects in British Boxing has a chance to showcase his talent to a wider audience and Moses Itauma is expected to make full use of that. He is in with an opponent who was Stopped by a journeyman in his last fight, almost a year ago, and Itauma should quickly make his power tell.

There was a time when Carlos Takam was plenty resilient and capable of testing fighters, while he is in off an upset of Tony Yoka. However, Martin Bakole cannot continue to call out the big names if he cannot win a fight like this one in impressive style.

You have to say that Bakole has been guilty of not really backing up his own upset of a then unbeaten Yoka, while the almost 300 pounds he weighed in at is a concern. In saying that, Martin Bakole has carried plenty of weight and kept the punches going in recent bouts and the feeling is he can 'Joe Joyce' Takam into submission.

One of the fighters that will back up the Carlos Takam resiliency is Arslanbek Makhmudov who is 17-0 with sixteen Stoppages and the only exception being the Decision win over Takam. He has had a couple of early nights since the Decision win against Carlos Takam and Arslanbek Makhmudov is expected to have another.

And former World Champion Joseph Parker should be able to showcase some of the 'mongrel' in a shoot out with Simon Kean.

Finally we get to the chief support on the undercard where the British Heavyweight Title is on the line as Fabio Wardley and David Adelaye finally get to meet in the ring.

It has been a feisty build up between two unbeaten fighters hoping to win on a big platform and use that to move closer to World level over the next twelve to eighteen months.

Both have combined to win all twenty-eight professional fights and twenty-six have been inside the distance.

You have to feel that Wardley is further along in his development compared with Adelaye, but the Challenger is plenty confident. There has also been some signs of vulnerability when Fabio Wardley has fought and it would be a real surprise if this doesn't catch fire pretty quickly.

David Adelaye has to know that Wardley has looked vulnerable early, but the former has also shown he can be hurt and this could be a fun fight with some Knock Downs and a first half finish, either way, looks very likely.

Over in Mexico, Matchroom are putting on a card where the winner of the main event could soon be tempted to head over to the United Kingdom for a Unification with Joe Cordina.

It is the undercard of interest with Justis Huni expected to show there are other Australian talents coming through. The Heavyweight is facing Andrew Tabiti, who had been out of the ring for fourteen months and only in his second fight in the Division having moved up Cruiserweight.

You have to believe that more is expected from Huni having needed the cards in his last couple of outings and Tabiti was Stopped in his sole previous defeat. The naturally bigger man has enough Rounds to force a Stoppage in this one as Matchroom continues to build talent from Down Under before organising a big card for the home fans in Australia.

MY PICKS: Tyson Fury to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Martin Bakole to Win By KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

Arslanbek Makhmudov to Win Between 1-2 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Joseph Parker to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Fabio Wardley-David Adelaye to End Between 1-6 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Justis Huni to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 49-87, - 20.37 Units (251 Units Staked, - 8.12% Yield) 

College Football Week 9 Picks 2023 (October 28th)

There are no just nine unbeaten teams left in the College Football ranks and a few of those are outside of the Power 5 Conferences and unlikely to be invited into the four team PlayOff format to determine a National Champion.

At least one of the top Big Ten teams is going to finish with at least one loss on the board with the Michigan Wolverines and Ohio State Buckeyes on a collision course and you have to feel that a number of one loss teams will now feel they are back in play.

Winning a Conference Championship with a single loss might well be good enough and that means there is still plenty of motivation all around.

Two losses are much harder to overcome and that is the situation for the USC Trojans with some suggesting that Caleb Williams should make a 'business decision' and sit out the rest of the season and protect his NFL Draft Stock. Perhaps the last season of the four team PlayOff format will surprise us and a two loss team will be called in, but that seems a long shot, especially if there are some non-Power 5 Conference Champions holding an unbeaten record.

Right now it is hard to look past the Florida State Seminoles, Oklahoma Sooners Washington Huskies and Georgia Bulldogs as a potential four team PlayOff bracket, but we have seen College Football springs plenty of upsets and there is still a month of Football to be played before the Committee have to make their final selections.

Florida State Seminoles @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons Pick: They are the last remaining unbeaten team in the ACC and the Florida State Seminoles (7-0) are pretty big favourites to win this Week 9 game on the road. Focus should not be a problem, even as a favourite, and that is because the Florida State Seminoles have lost their last three games against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons (4-3).

Wake Forest had lost their first three Conference games, but they ended that slump with a win over the Pittsburgh Panthers as a narrow home underdog.

The win was important for the Demon Deacons as it came under a situation where the team needed to use their third string Quarter Back. Santino Marucci threw the winning Touchdown pass with just seconds remaining in the Fourth Quarter, but Mitch Griffis could return at Quarter Back for the Demon Deacons as they prepare to face a tough Florida State Defensive unit.

It feels like a difficult match up with the Wake Forest Offensive Line struggling to establish the run, but facing a Florida State Defensive Line that has allowed themselves to be gashed for some big plays on the ground in recent outings. However, the Seminoles have been effective at building leads and forcing teams to move away from the run and have to throw into this Secondary, which is making containing teams to 200 passing yards per game for the season.

Recent games have been better so it will be difficult for Santino Marucci or Mitch Griffis to have a strong day throwing the ball.

Add in the fact that the Demon Deacons Offensive Line have just struggled in pass protection as much as run blocking and the Seminoles will certainly believe they have enough on this side of the ball to snap their losing run to this Conference rival.

Defensive strength is one thing, but Florida State will be confident thanks to the strong showing of Jordan Travis and the Offensive unit around him. Jordan Travis is a threat both through the air and on the ground, while he has been careful enough with the football to avoid offering opportunities to Defenses to turn the ball over and create short fields.

Unlike the opponent, Florida State will be expected to establish the run and keep Jordan Travis is manageable passing situations. The Quarter Back will also be facing a Wake Forest Secondary that has not been able to contain the pass as they have struggled to find the kind stops on the ground, while a limited pass rush means Jordan Travis will have time in the pocket to find his Receivers down the field.

They did take a bit of time to really begin to dominate the Duke Blue Devils in Week 8, but the Seminoles should be able to get into the groove a little more quickly in this one.

The head to head with Wake Forest does make you sit up and take notice, and the Demon Deacons have a strong 16-7 record against the spread in their last twenty-three games against Ranked opponents.

However, the Seminoles are 5-1 against the spread in their last six on the road and they should be focused and motivated. They did fail to cover as a very big road favourite at the Boston College Eagles, but the feeling is that the Seminoles are strong in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that can see them produce a big victory here.

Oklahoma Sooners @ Kansas Jayhawks Pick: A win over the Texas Longhorns and a Bye Week might have just distracted the Oklahoma Sooners (7-0), but they avoided the big upset against the UCF Knights in Week 8. An unbeaten Big 12 Champion is almost certainly going to be playing in the College Football PlayOff later in the year, but the Sooners will also know they cannot afford to be as loose in their play as they were in the home win over the Knights.

This week they are facing a team coming off a Bye Week, but the Kansas Jayhawks (5-2) have lost two of their last three games to slip to 2-2 within the Conference. Both defeats were on the road and the Jayhawks will be confident in facing the Big 12 leaders having crushed the UCF Knights at home earlier this month and making it look a lot easier than Oklahoma found it.

Of course that does not mean much with the feeling being that the Oklahoma Sooners were not as focused as they should have been last week. After coming so close to the upset defeat, the expectation is that the Sooners will be filled with a lot more intensity in this one ahead of The Bedlam Series.

The spot might have felt more awkward if the Sooners had dominated in Week 8, but that game is expected to mean they are not looking too far ahead knowing the impact a single loss between now and the end of the regular season could have on their PlayOff hopes.

Tawee Walker missed out on the win over the Knights, but the Running Back is expected in the line up in Week 9 and it should give the team a boost. The Sooners Offensive Line have been solid up front, but more could be expected from them when facing this Jayhawks Defensive Line that has given up some huge plays on the ground as they have stepped up the level of competition within the Big 12.

Moving the ball on the ground just makes things very comfortable for Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back and there are considerable holes in the Secondary which can be exploited. Dillon Gabriel has not thrown for 300 yards in either of his last two games having done so in each of the previous three, but he can have a bounce back outing against this Kansas Secondary, while we may also see the Quarter Back make a few more plays on the ground.

Quarter Back play is expected to be pretty consistent from the Oklahoma Sooners, but it may not be the case for the Kansas Jayhawks who look to be without Jalon Daniels again. He had opened the season as the starter for Kansas and had played well, but it will be up to Jason Bean to lead the team.

Kansas will be confident in what Bean brings to the table having thrown 9 Touchdown passes with 2 Interceptions, and he had over 400 passing yards against the Oklahoma State Cowboys before the Bye Week. However, Jason Bean had issues throwing against the Texas Longhorns Secondary and the Jayhawks are going to be relying on the Offensive Line to establish the run and make sure everything is not piled onto Jason Bean's shoulders.

Motion and deception is going to be huge for Kansas in this one and they may be able to establish the run against this Sooners Defensive Line that has been given a few more problems since moving into Big 12 play. This should help Jason Bean make a few more plays and give Kansas an opportunity for an upset, even if the belief is that the Sooners will prove to be too strong.

As improved as the Jayhawks are, they have been beaten by the better teams played this season and they are now 2-10-2 against the spread in their last fourteen games against Ranked opponents. They have also not been as effective out of a Bye Week as they would have expected to be in recent seasons and that has to be noted.

The Jayhawks have been competitive against the spread in recent games against the Oklahoma Sooners, but this line is perhaps a bit short and the Big 12 leaders can keep the momentum going before a big rivalry game in Week 10.

Virginia Cavaliers @ Miami Hurricanes Pick: The manner of the loss to the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets will live long in the memory of the Miami Hurricanes (5-2) and it could be a defeat that ultimately prevents them playing in the ACC Championship Game. Losing to the North Carolina Tar Heels was another blow, but at least the Hurricanes got back in track by beating the Clemson Tigers in Week 8 and they are big favourites to back that up.

They will not want to overlook the Virginia Cavaliers (2-5) who upset the aforementioned Tar Heels in Week 8 and ended that unbeaten record. They have also improved to 1-2 in the Conference, and Virginia are looking for a third win in a row.

Backing up the upset from Week 8 will be difficult for the Cavaliers and it is never easy to play back to back road games. An emotional win only increases that difficulty and this is a tough Hurricanes Defense that will believe they can at least contain the threat that Virginia will bring to the field.

There has been some improvement in the Offensive play produced by the Cavaliers, which is notable in the win over North Carolina last week, but they will still have things a little tougher in this one. Running the ball is always a strong point for teams, although being able to do that against this Hurricanes Defensive Line will be a test for the Cavaliers and they are not expected to have consistent success.

Tony Muskett has taken over at Quarter Back for the Virginia Cavaliers and is not splitting as much time as earlier this season, but that has also given him confidence having led the team to back to back wins. It is possible that Muskett will be able to make some big time time throws into the Miami Secondary, but if the Cavaliers are behind the chains, the Quarter Back is likely to be under serious pressure from the Miami pass rush and that could lead to potential mistakes.

The Hurricanes are expected to have Tyler Van Dyke back at Quarter Back even though they beat Clemson without him, and this should be a boost for the home team.

Like the Offensive side of the ball, Virginia's Defense have been playing better to go along with the stronger results. Containing Tyler Van Dyke and this Miami Offense is another test after last week against the North Carolina Tar Heels, but there was enough evidence from that game to believe Miami may have more success.

The Hurricanes Offensive Line can establish the run and from there it could be a spectacular return for Van Dyke at Quarter Back.

Covering this line will be far from easy, but the Virginia Cavaliers may not have the same energy to put into this game after the upset of the Tar Heels and it could see the Hurricanes end up pulling away for a strong win.

Florida Gators vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: Both of these teams are returning from a Bye Week and the Georgia Bulldogs (7-0) are hoping to keep the momentum behind their bid to repeat as National Champions.

A loss to rivals Florida Gators (5-2) could really put the Bulldogs in a tough position as it would give the Gators the inside track to reach the SEC Championship Game at the expense of the Bulldogs.

Being aware of that should mean the Bulldogs are focused, even if we have yet to see them at their convincing best this season. They are winning games, but good teams win and great teams cover and Georgia have struggled when it comes to covering the mark being set for them by the oddsmakers.

They will have to be aware that they are taking on a Florida team that have won back to back SEC games and who are 3-1 in the Conference this season, which leaves them trailing the Georgia Bulldogs by a game.

Graham Mertz has impressed in the two Florida wins over Vanderbilt and South Carolina and he is vastly experienced in College Football, but those two Defensive units are considerably weaker than the one Georgia will be bringing onto the field. They are strong at the line of scrimmage and the Bulldogs Defensive Line will be looking to make the Gators one-dimensional by clamping down on the run and testing how much Mertz has improved at Quarter Back.

You cannot dismiss the passing numbers of the Gators, but you can accept that Graham Mertz will be under a lot more pressure in this one. He will be throwing into a Secondary that is improving week after week, while the Florida Offensive Line may be under pressure to give their Quarter Back the time he needs to allow routes to develop down the field.

Being able to run the ball and stop the run has been an age-long successful route to win Football games and the Georgia Bulldogs will certainly believe they have the strength in the trenches on both sides of the ball. While the Defensive Line is expected to at least slow down the Gators on the ground, the Georgia Offensive Line has been able to pummel teams on the ground and there is very little to doubt they can do the same in this one too.

This could make up for the absence of Brook Bowers who should return before the end of the regular season and ease the pressure on Carson Beck to find others to step into the void left by the Tight End. He has proven to be a big time Receiver for the Bulldogs, although Beck could be playing in front of the chains with the Bulldogs expected to run the ball efficiently.

It should mean Carson Beck is able to make a few plays in this one to impress some of the friends and fans that will be arriving to watch him compete.

After the upset loss in 2020, Georgia have dominated the Florida Gators in each of the last two seasons and they can do enough to win this one and cover this mark. It is not easy to trust the Bulldogs who have struggled to cover against those from the Unranked marks and as a double digit favourite.

However, this looks a good chance for the Bulldogs to really impress the PlayOff Committee by crushing the in-form Gators with a dominant display on both sides of the ball.

MY PICKS: Florida State Seminoles - 20.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 31 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Boston College Eagles - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Texas A&M Aggies - 16.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Maryland Terrapins - 14 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)

Nebraska Cornhuskers - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 11.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

NFL Week 8 Picks 2023 (October 26-30)

We are edging closer and closer to the halfway mark of the NFL season and the injuries continue to pile up through the League.

While previous years have been relatively quiet at the trade deadline, especially compared to the other US Sports played, there could be a few more 'bigger' names on the move this time around.

Teams continue to separate from others and the Kansas City Chiefs have to be considered the favourites in the AFC to represent the Conference in yet another Super Bowl. As exciting a time as it has been for Miami fans,  the Dolphins loss last week in Philadelphia is the second time they have been beaten in a 'statement making' game having also been beaten by the Buffalo Bills and it should be right to question who Miami have beaten.

Week 9 will give them another shot when taking on the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany, but the Dolphins will not want to overlook the New England Patriots with potential key injuries on both sides of the ball. They very much look like a PlayOff team, but you will have to beat some quality teams to have a really good run in the post-season and the Chiefs, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills will give Miami further opportunities to prove themselves between now and the end of the regular season.

Back to back losses for the San Francisco 49ers have slowed the hype train in the NFC, but there won't be too many concerns in the NFC West, which looks a weak Division. The Seahawks may have something to say about that, but injuries are a bigger issue for the 49ers right now and they will be better for the upcoming Bye Week that will allow players to just get over some of the issues affecting them.

The double header against the Seattle Seahawks will sandwich a game with the Philadelphia Eagles and is likely going to be a pivotal part of the season for the 49ers, but they should be ready to compete by the end of November when that run begins.

A worst case scenario is that the 49ers have to enter the team as a Wild Card team, but that has not bothered them in the past and they will be there or thereabouts come January.

Teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Seattle Seahawks and Detroit Lions make up a stronger than expected Conference, although we are still several weeks away from really knowing what teams will look like entering January.

It has been a solid three week run for the NFL Picks after the poor showing in Week 4 and I am hopeful the momentum can carry through another week. The last couple of weeks have been decent, if unspectacular, but avoiding the really poor weeks is the key to keeping things ticking along.

Week 8 Picks will begin with the Thursday Night Football game and further selections will be added to the thread over the next couple of days.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There was a feeling within that the Buffalo Bills (4-3) might be vulnerable to some of the better teams they could face in the NFL, but even then the expectation was that they would beat the New England Patriots. It quickly became clear in Week 7 that they were not going to cover a big spread on the road, although the actual outright upset was a surprise with the Bills remaining in second place in the AFC East.

They are scheduled to play on a short week with a Thursday Night Football showing on prime time, but that may not be completely ideal for the Buffalo Bills. There is almost no doubt that Josh Allen is not operating at 100% and the banged up Defensive unit have had some serious problems making plays, both issues which will be highlighted on a short week.

A late Bye Week is not ideal, but Buffalo will be earning a mini-Bye between this game and the one in Week 9 against the Cincinnati Bengals and that should mean the home team leave it all on the line to avoid falling back to 0.500 for the season.

It looks like a pretty good opponent to face too with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-3) losing three of four games, including a tough loss in Week 7 against Divisional rivals the Atlanta Falcons.

The Buccaneers have fallen behind the Falcons for the NFC South lead, but they will travel with some confidence despite less than positive results of late. Tampa Bay have won both road games played this season at the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints and they will feel they can do enough Offensively to at least challenge the Buffalo Bills in this game.

A tough run against non-Conference opponents is coming up for the Buccaneers and they will need Baker Mayfield to pick up his level having slumped in recent outings. The Quarter Back was always going to be challenged in trying to replace Tom Brady, but Mayfield does have some solid Receiving options around him and he plays behind an Offensive Line that has given him time in the pocket.

The problem has been that the O-Line has not been nearly as effective at helping the Buccaneers establish the run and it is almost always tougher to continue to make passing plays with success from third and long spots, no matter the time being afforded.

And while we have seen some teams really crack the run game open against the Bills, they have shown some improvement in recent games to believe they can contain the Buccaneers threat on the ground. It should give Buffalo's pass rush an opportunity to try and get after Baker Mayfield and that remains the strength of the Bills Defensive unit which has lost some key players at all three levels.

Even then, Baker Mayfield should be able to find the likes of Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Cade Otton and it should mean the Buccaneers are able to move the chains. That does offer a chance of a backdoor cover too, at the worst, although trusting this Tampa Bay Offensive unit on a short week is not easy when you think they have been held to less than 14 points in half of their games.

It is still a big spread to cover for the Buffalo Bills and especially if Josh Allen is not quite feeling himself. Since the win over the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo have not looked on the same page with one another and this is going to be another game where the pressure is squarely on the shoulder of the Quarter Back.

The Bills Offensive Line have not been powering open too many holes for James Cook and Josh Allen may not be so keen to run if he is feeling banged up. Trying to establish the run against this Tampa Bay Defensive Line would have been tough, but to do so on a short week and with issues on the Offensive Line is perhaps asking too much from them.

So much like the Buccaneers, the Buffalo Bills will be looking to their Quarter Back to make throws into the opponent Secondary and Josh Allen will have opportunities to do that successfully. He has been given plenty of time in pass protection, again like Baker Mayfield, and there are some areas to exploit in the Tampa Bay Secondary as long as Allen can avoid the poor turnovers he has been responsible for in recent games.

Tampa Bay have played pretty well Defensively in the most part, but the likes of Jalen Hurts and Jared Goff showed what is possible against them.

Only the injury concern holds back the belief in Josh Allen being able to lead Buffalo to the same, but the Bills are the stronger team and the short week favours them in that regards. Josh Allen is also hoping to bounce back from consecutive losses, which should mean a big effort to get through this game successfully, and it is noted how Tampa Bay have been comfortably beaten when facing the top teams on their schedule through to this point of the season.

Tempered enthusiasm aside, the feeling is that the Bills come out with something to prove on both sides of the ball and they can put a strong win on the board. The backdoor cover is a potential concern, but Baker Mayfield has not exactly been lighting things up and the Bills should have enough to win this one by double digits and remain firmly alongside the Miami Dolphins in the Division.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tennessee Titans Pick: If someone had said at the start of the season that by the time this Week 8 game rolls around that one of the teams would be leading their Division and the other would be in the basement, most would have expected this to be the other way around. Instead, the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) are looking to consolidate their place leading the NFC South, while the Tennessee Titans (2-4) are struggling through injury.

There has been a suggestion that the Titans could be looking to become involved in the trade market and begin shaping the team for 2024, with some even pointing at Derrick Henry as a piece that could be moved on.

He has been given some security and a chance to prepare without distraction having been told that the Titans will not explore a trade, but it is not an ideal situation to be in for Derrick Henry. In fact he may actually wish to move to a potential contender with the Titans struggling and going into this game without their starting Quarter Back.

Veteran Ryan Tannehill is out and that means Tennessee will be giving young Quarter Back Malik Willis and rookie Will Levis an opportunity to impress. Head Coach Mike Vrabel has suggested both could share snaps in this game, but that means more pressure on Derrick Henry and the running game to at least give their inexperienced Quarter Backs a chance by pushing them into third and manageable spots on the field.

The Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes for the ground game, but this is not going to be an easy game for Tennessee. While there will be confidence that they can establish the run, they will have to respect how well this Atlanta Defensive Line have played all season and who continue to show their strength up front in the trenches.

It would not be a big surprise if they really focus on shutting down Derrick Henry, as much as possible anyway, and try and force Tennessee to have to rely on the pass. Much like all levels of this Atlanta Defense, the signings made have strengthened the team considerably compared with 2022 and the Falcons have also managed to bring some solid pass rush pressure too.

Improvements Defensively are one thing, but Atlanta have won two of their last three games thanks to a little more success for their Offense.

Desmond Ridder is still making some major mistakes on the field and his red zone turnovers almost cost the Falcons another game last week. Overall the numbers are better, but those turnovers can be a killer and Ridder will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played the pass pretty well in recent games, despite the setbacks.

The Titans Defensive Line have had a few more problems stopping the run and Atlanta should have Bijan Robinson back this week having failed to inform the League that he was suffering an illness in Week 8. He is also proving to be a solid safety blanket for Desmond Ridder in the passing game and the Falcons could put together enough Offensively to earn another road win.

Mike Vrabel has proved himself to be a Head Coach who can be very good at covering as an underdog and his team will likely be motivated by being set as a home underdog in Week 8.

The Falcons have not been the best favourite to back of late, but they can get the better of an inexperienced Quarter Back and perhaps force a couple of mistakes that gives them the edge. Of course it also means relying on Desmond Ridder to avoid the red zone mistakes he has made over the last couple of weeks, but having Bijan Robinson back and facing a Titans Defensive Line having one or two issues should give the Atlanta Falcons the edge here.

New York Jets @ New York Giants Pick: There were huge expectations in New York City at the beginning of this season and both of these teams would have been targeting PlayOff spots.

Last season the New York Giants (2-5) not only played in the post-season, but they won a PlayOff game and looked like they were fully behind Daniel Jones at Quarter Back. The New York Jets (3-3) may not have made the PlayOffs, but signing Aaron Rodgers looked to take them forward and excitement was high.

Both Quarter Backs will be missing for this game and it has been tough work for both the Giants and Jets, although the latter at least have some momentum out of their Bye Week having won back to back games.

Keeping in touch with the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills in the AFC East is going to be difficult, but the Bye Week has allowed the Jets to just get a couple of key players back. The fans are still hoping a trade can be made to upgrade Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, although nothing has moved on that front and the feeling is that the team are going to stick with Wilson at least until Aaron Rodgers is able to return from a bad injury suffered just seconds into his first start for his new team.

This feels like a game in which the Jets can make life easier for the struggling Quarter Back and that is by leaning on Breece Hall and the Offensive Line. In recent games, the New York Jets have been able to hand the ball to Hall and rip off some big gains and they are facing a Giants Defensive Line that has not been able to stop the run.

Zach Wilson should then have the time to make some positive throws down the field, although Wilson has been content in picking up yards through his check down options. However, running the ball well should put the Jets in front of the chains on this side of the ball and it could lead to another win over a team from the NFC East in this Stadium.

With Daniel Jones expected to miss out, and potentially moved on at the end of the season, the New York Giants will once again go with veteran Tyrod Taylor at Quarter Back. He did help the Giants to end their losing run with a win over the struggling Washington Commanders last week, but this week Tyrod Taylor will be going up against a very good Jets Defensive unit.

Injuries on the Offensive Line means the Giants have not been nearly as effective running the ball as their opponent and they may not be able to take advantage of some of the issues that the Jets Defensive Line have experienced of late. Saquon Barkley is a very good Running Back and can make some big plays on the ground, but the consistency could be lacking and that puts plenty of pressure on Tyrod Taylor's shoulders.

Tyrod Taylor can move, but he has experienced the same problems as Daniel Jones and that is getting very little time in the pocket before this Giants Offensive Line allows pass rushers to get through. He is going to be put under pressure any time the Giants are in obvious passing situations and Tyrod Taylor is going to be facing a strong New York Jets Secondary which will be bolstered by returning players.

Trusting the New York Jets is not easy because of Zach Wilson at Quarter Back, but they are likely to have a lot more consistency running the ball compared with the New York Giants.

This gives the 'road' team a real edge and the Jets Defensive unit can make some big plays against Tyrod Taylor and see the Jets win and cover. They have not been the best coming out of a Bye Week, but this looks a good match up for the AFC representative from Gotham and they can make it three wins in a row and the Jets are looking for a fourth cover in succession.

Cleveland Browns @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: These two teams share the same 4-2 record for the season and both are expecting to be involved in the PlayOff shake up in their respective Conferences.

A key to any successful season is dealing with injuries in the best possible way and the big question for the Cleveland Browns is whether Deshaun Watson can get healthier at Quarter Back and rediscover the kind of level he displayed with the Houston Texans. Off field allegations means his career had an unexpected break before Watson was traded to the Browns, but he has only flashed some of the skills he had shown as a Texan and has been banged up this season.

PJ Walker will be leading Cleveland into Seattle having guided the team to a very narrow win over the Indianapolis Colts last week. A couple of non-Conference games are on deck for the Browns before getting back into it with Divisional rivals and Walker is being asked to manage the team rather than win games.

Leaning on a strong Defensive unit and a powerful run game is the plan, but the Browns are expected to be challenged on both sides of the ball by the Seahawks.

We are still to really know how good this Seattle Defense is considering the relatively weak schedule faced, but they have looked strong along the Defensive Line and have been able to generate a solid pass rush.

Both of these elements could be at play in Week 8 and they could force the Browns to have to rely on the PJ Walker play-making ability more than Cleveland would like to do.

Geno Smith is also expected to have a tough game, but he may be backed up with. little more consistency on the ground. All teams will find it tough to run the ball at the Cleveland Browns, but recent games have suggested that there are one or two more holes up front that can be exploited and keeping Smith in third and manageable spots is the key to the outcome of this game.

Anything else and Smith will be under the same kind of pressure that his opposite number is likely to face, while the Quarter Back will not be too keen on throwing into this Secondary from obvious passing positions. Deception can be the key and operating out of play-action would make things that much easier for Geno Smith, who will have a huge target back this week in DK Metcalf.

Turnovers will be big in this game and the Seahawks may just be able to win that battle and create a couple of short fields to edge this important non-Conference contest.

Only Gardner Minshew's mistakes cost Indianapolis a win over Cleveland last week so a slightly cleaner display from Geno Smith would be enough. He is not always th most trustworthy to produce that, especially under pressure like Smith will face in this game, but the Seahawks are at home and look in a good spot to stay with the NFC West leading San Francisco 49ers.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Detroit Lions Pick: There is always very little error being in the same Division as a powerhouse like the Kansas City Chiefs, but the Las Vegas Raiders (3-4) are one of three teams with losing records in the AFC West. They are the closest of the three to the Chiefs, but Raiders fans already have to accept that the best route into the post-season will be via the Wild Card places.

In a tough Conference, the expectation is that nine wins will be needed, at a minimum, to secure a Wild Card berth and that means the room for error is already closing on the Raiders. Losing to the Chicago Bears in Week 7 is a real disappointment and now the Raiders have to visit the Detroit Lions (5-2) on Monday Night Football, a team looking to show they are a lot stronger than their own performance last week.

Being blown out in the manner they were at the Baltimore Ravens will have stung, but the Lions only trail the Philadelphia Eagles in terms of most wins in the NFC this season. They will be looking to bounce back from the heavy loss in much more favourable conditions at home and the Lions can put their all into this game knowing they are set for a Bye Week.

Losing would have hurt, but Dan Campbell and the Lions know they have a very kind schedule from here on out and there will still be a hope that they can finish with the best record in the NFC. Winning games like this one are important towards that goal and Detroit have been much stronger at home having won five of their last six games here.

Jared Goff might not have David Montgomery behind him in the backfield, but the Lions saw enough from rookie Jahmyr Gibbs to believe they can find some balance in this one. It will be important to run the ball well to make sure the disruptive Las Vegas pass rushers are not flooding the backfield in the obvious passing situations and the Lions have an Offensive Line that is capable in run blocking.

Jahmyr Gibbs should have a strong game on the ground and is also going to be a key Receiver when Jared Goff needs to look for a safety blanket. The Raiders Secondary has played well so they may think they can move players down to the line of scrimmage to stop the run, but it also should be noted that this is the one of the tougher passing Offenses that Las Vegas will have played this season.

At home Jared Goff is even more comfortable so establishing the run should set the Quarter Back up for a solid game. It may also see the Raiders pass rush eased just enough to help Goff make those plays down the field having been given a number of very good Receiving options by some solid Detroit scouting.

The Raiders will have Jimmy Garoppolo back this week, but the Quarter Back is facing a tough challenge and has not sparked the Offensive unit as imagined having been given the keys to take over from Derek Carr.

It really has not helped that the Raiders Offensive Line have not been able to provide spaces for Josh Jacobs on the ground and that has made Las Vegas too one-dimensional and easy to plan against. The Running Back has gotten plenty of touches as a Receiver too, but so much of the Offensive game-plan is based about running the ball effectively and it has been a real problem for the Raiders.

They are not expected to have a lot more joy in this one and that will put pressure on Jimmy Garoppolo- throwing out of third and long situations is tough at the best of times, but even more so when the Offensive Line is not offering up a lot of time and now facing a Lions pass rush that could be in the Quarter Back's face every time he steps back to throw.

Recent performances have been stronger from the Offensive Line and Davante Adams is a reliable Receiver down the field so there is going to be some opportunities for Jimmy Garoppolo. Interceptions have been the backbreaker for the Quarter Back though and this Lions Secondary will feel they can make the plays that can give their team every chance to win and cover the spread.

The last three Detroit losses have been followed by big home wins and the team can put in their all knowing there are some rest days coming up.

Las Vegas have produced some decent numbers, but turnovers have hurt them and they continue to make mistakes when picking up some momentum. Struggles to run the ball can only favour the Lions and Dan Campbell's men have been much stronger at home so they can be backed to secure a big bounce-back victory on Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

New York Jets - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Detroit Lions - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

NFL Week 7 Picks 2023 (October 19-23)

It felt like it was going to be a difficult week for the Picks and the upsets around the NFL in Week 6 underlined the point.

For the first time since 2017 there are no unbeaten teams left in the NFL going into Week 7 and there does look to be a healthy number of contenders that will have serious Super Bowl ambitions as long as they can stay healthy.

In the weeks ahead we will find out a bit more about those teams with some big games coming up, beginning with the huge Philadelphia Eagles and Miami Dolphins Sunday Night Football effort this week. They might not be Conference rivals, but two 5-1 teams that will believe they could meet again in February may be looking to put down an early marker and that looks like being a top game to round out the Sunday portion of the Week 7 schedule.

Injuries are beginning to pile up through the NFL and the trade deadline is fast approaching with names like Kirk Cousins and Saquon Barkley high on the rumour list. Changes could certainly improve the appeal of some of the teams below the leading lights in the early Super Bowl race and it will certainly be something to keep an eye upon as we continue racing to the halfway mark of the regular season.

Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots Pick: It tells you all you need to know about how badly things are going for the New England Patriots (1-5) that there is serious talk that the team may decide to move on from Head Coach Bill Belichick at the end of this season. Ever since Tom Brady departed Foxboro, Belichick has struggled to identify the right replacement at Quarter Back, while his Defensive prowess has not been good enough to cover up the problems on the other side of the ball.

The last three losses have encapsulated the problems as the Patriots have been battered in all facets of the game and the season already looks like it is unsalvageable in the incredibly difficult AFC East.

In Week 7, the New England Patriots are hosting the Buffalo Bills (4-2) who were not at their best in winning their primetime game in Week 6. Josh Allen was banged up in the win over the New York Giants, but he is expected to earn the start at Quarter Back and has led the Bills to a dominant record against the New England Patriots in the post-Brady era.

A Thursday Night Football game in Week 8 is a potential distraction for Buffalo, but you have to believe this game is more important being a Divisional one, while the upcoming game is against a non-Conference opponent back at home.

This is a big spread and the backdoor cover has to be a concern considering the injuries that the Buffalo Bills have on the Defensive side of the ball. However, it is very difficult to believe Mac Jones and this poor New England Offense is capable of putting together the consistency needed to score a lot of points having averaged just 6.7 points per game in their three game skid.

The Patriots did manage 17 points in the loss to the Las Vegas Raiders last week, but they look a mess at the moment and Mac Jones is not playing with a lot of confidence. Bill Belichick has signed Malik Cunningham onto the main roster and he may be the backup to Jones on Sunday, which means the Quarter Back will be feeling the short leash around his neck.

Establishing the run has been a real issue for the entire New England Offensive unit and that would have certainly helped the Patriots Quarter Back. Even though we have seen teams make some significant gains on the ground against the Bills Defensive Line, you cannot have a lot of faith in the Patriots being able to do the same from what we have seen.

Offensive Line issues has made it difficult to run the ball, but also offer very little protection to Mac Jones when he steps back to throw and that has certainly impacted the passing game. It should be more of the same in this one with the Bills bringing a powerful pass rush into Foxboro and that will see Jones have to make some quick reads and, ultimately, likely lead to some mistakes.

The question around the covering of the spread is less to do with how the Buffalo Bills Defensive unit will play, but whether the Offense will get back up to speed after a couple of less than impressive displays.

Josh Allen's shoulder is a concern, while the Bills have not been able to run the ball nearly as efficiently as they would like to ease some of the pressure on the Quarter Back. Running the ball outside of designed Quarter Back runs will be difficult in this game, but short fields could be given to Buffalo by the Defense making plays on Mac Jones and that should help all around.

And for all the Offensive Line issues in opening up the running lanes, they have been able to give Josh Allen a clean pocket and plenty of time when he has dropped back to throw. Recent games has seen the Patriots struggle to take down the opposition Quarter Back so there should be an opportunity for Allen to continue his dominance of this AFC East rival.

The Patriots Secondary has not been able to play the pass as well as they would like thanks to the limited pressure being created up front and so this is a big chance for Buffalo to put a statement win on the board.

Since the start of the 2020 season, Buffalo have beaten New England in six of seven meetings and the last five wins have all been by double digits. The last three games played at Foxboro have ended in 29, 12 and 14 point wins for the Buffalo Bills and they can secure a big win on the road again to stay hot on the heels of the Miami Dolphins in the Division.

Detroit Lions @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Some believe the Detroit Lions (5-1) may be the best team in the NFC after a strong start to the 2023 season to follow the strong end to 2022. Winning games on the road has always been the question about Jared Goff and the Offense, but they have proven they can do that this season and the Lions are clear in the NFC North.

Back to back road games is never easy and that is the test for the Lions as they prepare to face the Baltimore Ravens (4-2), the leaders of the AFC North. The Ravens are back in the United States after beating the Tennessee Titans in London in Week 6 and so this is not an ideal situation for them either.

The AFC North is going to be a Division that likely goes down to the wire, but the Baltimore Ravens will believe they can be the team to beat as long as the Offensive unit can just find a bit more rhythm.

Defensively this is going to be a real test for the Ravens against the best Quarter Back they have faced in 2023, but Baltimore will know that the Lions are not quite as potent outside of the Dome. That has to help, while the injury to David Montgomery is a tough one to absorb just prior to facing this Baltimore Defensive Line that has prided itself on clamping down on the run.

Recent teams have had a bit of success pounding the run, but without Montgomery, the Lions are not expected to do the same and the pressure will be on Jared Goff to keep the chains moving.

He is well protected for the most part by his Offensive Line, but Goff could find the time in the pocket limited considering how much pressure Baltimore have been able to generate up front. If the Ravens can slow the run, it will give the pass rushers that opportunity to try and break into the backfield and force Jared Goff to go through his progressions that much more quickly than he has become used to doing.

There are some solid Receiving options for Jared Goff and shutting down the Lions completely feels unlikely. However, the Ravens Secondary will certainly believe they can match up to those if they don't need to cover for too long and Baltimore have been a tough team to throw against so far this season, although again it should be noted that they have not played the best Quarter Backs nor the most healthy.

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensive unit will have to still score points if they are going to win this game and they may not match up as well as they would like with this Detroit Defense.

The Defensive Line have been strong up front and clog up the running lanes and that is going to present a challenge to Baltimore who are always keen to establish the run first and foremost. Having a Quarter Back like Lamar Jackson means they can design plays for him to make with his legs, which will give the Lions something else to think about, but the pressure will be on Jackson to try and make his plays to his inconsistent Receiving options.

Mark Andrews is still a big part of the corps, while Zay Flowers has flashed in his rookie season, but there is still some inconsistency in the drives and the Lions Secondary are good enough to stall some of those.

Both teams will have their moments in this one, but the slight lean has to be with the Baltimore Ravens back at home in a game that probably means a bit more to them than the Lions. There is still that feeling that Detroit are not as strong on the road and especially not outdoors and the Ravens might just be able to grind this one out with an important victory.

The Ravens were beaten in their last home game in an upset, but they will be very focused on Detroit considering the press clippings about the Lions and a strong Defensive effort can help the home team secure the victory and cover.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The top of the NFC South is at stake in this Week 7 game after the New Orleans Saints fell below 0.500 following a disappointing defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Thursday Night Football.

A tie cannot be completely dismissed, but the reality is that the winner of this game will finish on top of the competitive, albeit underwhelming Division.

Three losses in four games have dropped the Atlanta Falcons (3-3) into second place, but they are facing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2) who were well beaten at home last week by the qualities of the Detroit Lions. Both teams have questions at Quarter Back and the Falcons and Buccaneers will instead be relying on their strong Defensive units to give them a chance to win.

It was the Quarter Back play from Desmond Ridder that cost the Atlanta Falcons in their Week 6 defeat to the Washington Commanders and some are still suggesting that a trade with the Minnesota Vikings for Kirk Cousins should be explored. It does feel like Ridder is not going to be able to get the best of the talent Atlanta have on both sides of the ball, although Head Coach Arthur Smith feels there has been enough of an improvement in the passing game to still believe in the young Quarter Back.

The passing numbers have not looked too bad in recent games, but that is also because Desmond Ridder will get the ball out of his hands and have the skill players pick up yards after the catch. The Interceptions being thrown when pushing is a real concern for Ridder and the Atlanta Falcons and he will have to be careful in this one against the Buccaneers Secondary.

Desmond Ridder will be under pressure to make plays because the Falcons are unlikely to get a lot of change out of running the ball against this tough Tampa Bay Defensive Line. Bijan Robinson has looked every bit the Running Back the Falcons hoped they had Drafted, but his best work in this game is likely going to be as a Receiver coming out of the backfield, while Desmond Ridder does have Drake London and Kyle Pitts to make plays against an aggressive Buccaneers Secondary.

Running the ball efficiently has also been a problem for the Tampa Bay Offensive Line and, like the other side of the ball, the Defensive Line of the Falcons is expected to dominate the trenches. Clamping down on the run has been key for Atlanta, who are allowing just 20 points per game this season, and the improvement in all three levels of the Defense means it also going to be a real test for Baker Mayfield when throwing against this team.

Like his opposite number, Baker Mayfield does have some solid Receiving options that can make plays for him, while he has been given a bit more protection in the passing game compared with Desmond Ridder. That should help, but Mayfield has been a polarising figure since entering the Quarter Back and his performances have generally underwhelmed.

Facing an Atlanta Secondary that has allowed fewer than 190 passing yards on average in their last three games and likely out of third and long situations on the field is going to make life very hard for Baker Mayfield.

The Buccaneers have won three in a row at home against the Atlanta Falcons, but Tom Brady is no longer leading the Offense.

A Thursday Night Football game at the Buffalo Bills is coming up and Tampa Bay might be a little distracted, even in this Divisional game, so the situation is not ideal for the Buccaneers.

It is incredibly difficult to trust Desmond Ridder to avoid the backbreaking turnovers that have blighted him, but he does look like the Quarter Back that will have more spaces to exploit. The Falcons Defense can at least contain Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers Offensive weapons and that might give the narrow edge with the road team who can use the points being given to them to cover.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Atlanta Falcons + 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks - 8 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Miami Dolphins + 3 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)

Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)

Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

College Football Week 8 Picks 2023 (October 21st)

There were upsets and some closer games than expected in Week 7 of the College Football season and a few more teams have slipped from the ranks of the unbeatens.

We will have at least another knocked off this week following the Ohio State and Penn State Big Ten clash, while the controversy around the Michigan Wolverines will certainly have the rest of the College Football PlayOff chasers taking a keen interest.

Week 7 was not a good one for the Picks, but Week 8 is hopefully an opportunity to bounce back.

UCF Knights @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: Two weeks have passed since the very important win in the Red River Rivalry game and the Oklahoma Sooners (6-0) should have come off the emotional high having sat through a Bye Week. Backing up that victory over the Texas Longhorns will be the sole aim for the Oklahoma Sooners and remaining unbeaten through to the Big 12 Championship Game would mean they are amongst the favourites to reach the College Football PlayOff, even as a potential non-Champion.

That will be far from the thought process of anyone involved with the team and the focus will be on winning each game and ticking them off of the list.

Quarter Back Dillon Gabriel will certainly not be overlooking this game on deck when his current team takes on the UCF Knights (3-3), the school with which Gabriel started his College Football career. It has been a tough move into the Big 12 for the Knights who have lost all three Conference games played this season and who will be hoping the Bye Week will have given them a chance to fully analyse what went wrong in the blowout defeat to the Kansas Jayhawks.

While the Sooners are being led by their former Quarter Back, it has been a problem position for the UCF Knights this season and contributed to the poor start made to life in the Big 12. An injury to John Rhys Plumlee has meant he has thrown just SEVEN Conference passes this season, although the two week break between games has given him the time to return to training.

He could have hoped to be facing a better opponent than the much improved Sooners Defensive unit, especially as Oklahoma have carried a pass rush that is likely to get the better of the UCF Offensive Line.

However, Plumlee will be helped if the Knights can establish the run and at least keep Dillon Gabriel and the Oklahoma Offensive unit on the sidelines. Teams have been able to find a little more room against the Oklahoma Defensive Line in recent games and the Knights may be able to at least give their Quarter Back a chance to make plays from third and manageable positions on the field, although John Rhys Plumlee will need some time finding rhythm with his Receivers to expose any holes in this Sooners Secondary.

A bigger challenge than scoring points may be stopping the Sooners doing what they want when they have the ball in their own hands.

Dillon Gabriel is likely going to have a strong game again, but he should be well supported by the ground game and this should mean the Sooners are able to move the ball up and down the field pretty efficiently.

The Offensive Line have protected their Quarter Back so Gabriel should have time to attack this UCF Secondary and Oklahoma look capable of winning this one by a wide margin, even after the Texas win and the emotions that come with it. You have to believe that Dillon Gabriel will be highly motivated even with the respect he has for his former school and the Oklahoma Sooners may be able to make enough Defensive plays to end up winning by around three Touchdowns.

Oklahoma have covered in seven games in a row and the Knights have failed to cover in each of their three road games this season.

Both of these trends are likely to be extended another week at the end of this Week 8 Big 12 game.

Washington State Cougars @ Oregon Ducks Pick: Some mistakes proved to be costly for the Oregon Ducks (5-1) in their narrow road defeat to the Washington Huskies, but all is not lost for the team. The Pac-12 is a tough Conference and the Ducks will still believe they have the qualities to force their way into the Championship Game and the College Football PlayOff is not beyond them after a single loss either.

Bouncing back before a big road game at the Utah Utes has to be the focus for Oregon and they are hosting the slumping Washington State Cougars (4-2). The 1-2 record in the Pac-12 Conference is down to the fact that the Cougars have lost consecutive games with the Week 7 defeat to the Arizona Wildcats particularly hurtful.

Losing is one thing, but the Washington State Cougars were 7.5 point favourites at home in a game they were eventually beaten by 37 points.

The 4-0 start to the season was behind a very strong Offensive showing, but the Cougars are really struggling on this side of the ball in their last two losses. Now they have to face an Oregon Defensive unit that has played at a solid level for the majority of this season and it is difficult to see Washington State have a lot more success than they have had in the losses to UCLA and Arizona.

One of the main issues for the Cougars is that they have been pretty one-dimensional when it comes to the Offensive game plan. We may see more of the same with Washington State struggling to run the ball and now facing an Oregon Defensive Line that has been really strong at clamping down on the run.

It means additional pressure on Cameron Ward at Quarter Back and he has not been able to handle that very well in the back to back defeats. The Oregon Secondary has produced some strong numbers this season and they are helped by a powerful pass rush that will feel they can rattle Ward who could be having to deal with third and long situations far too often.

After the loss in Week 7, Oregon Head Coach Dan Lanning has been criticised for some of the late play-calling that ultimately cost the Ducks the win. He should be much more simple with his approach in this one with Oregon likely to have plenty of success running the ball at this Cougars Defensive Line which has allowed teams to rip off some big gains.

Oregon's Offensive Line has been very strong at helping the establish the run and they have also protected Quarter Back Bo Nix, who should be able to make plenty of big plays through the air too. With the balance on the Offensive side of the ball, Oregon are expected to have another strong showing and they should be able to put up plenty of points against this Cougars team.

The Ducks have won four in a row against Washington State, but they are only 2-2 against the spread in those wins.

With an Offensive unit that is as capable as the Cougars at their best and Oregon off a disappointing loss, the backdoor cover for the underdog might be available. However, the Ducks are 4-0 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season and they can make some big plays Defensively to back up an Offensive unit likely to score plenty of points and that should see Oregon bounce back very effectively from the loss to the Huskies.

Texas Longhorns @ Houston Cougars Pick: Losing to the Oklahoma Sooners is a bitter blow for the Texas Longhorns (5-1), but running the table and winning the Big 12 Championship Game may still be good enough to carry the team into the College Football PlayOff. That has to still be the aim for the Longhorns who were seconds away from being unbeaten heading into Week 8 of the season and the team will have likely spent the Bye Week making sure they have put enough distance mentally between the rest of this season and the loss in the Red River Rivalry game.

This is going to be a tough test for the Longhorns as they face a road game at the Houston Cougars (3-3), even if the Cougars are 1-2 in Big 12 Conference play.

Make no mistake that all associated with the Houston Cougars will have circled this game on the schedule and so the very best effort has to be expected from the players, especially at home.

Donovan Smith made the big play from Quarter Back to help the Cougars beat the West Virginia Mountaineers to earn a first Conference win and he is likely going to be important in this one too. While the Cougars Offensive Line have been able to open up some big holes for the running game, they are facing a tough Texas Defensive Line and that mean all of the pressure is on the Quarter Back to try and expose the Longhorns Secondary.

He is well protected by the Offensive Line when stepping back to throw and Donovan Smith will be able to have success in this game. However, Smith will know this perhaps the best Defensive unit he has seen this season and he will have to be careful of throwing into tight spaces and seeing the Longhorns turn the ball over.

The reality is that Donovan Smith and the Houston Offensive unit should be able to move the ball, but the pressure in this game will be on the other side of the ball and whether they can make enough stops.

Houston may not have the same balance Offensively as the Texas Longhorns are likely going to be able to bring onto the field and a predictable Offense can be that much easier to stop.

With a strong Offensive Line, the Longhorns should be able to come out and establish the run and we should see Jonathon Brooks have another strong showing from the Running Back position. Texas will know the Cougars Defensive Line have had some issues when it comes to plugging the holes up front and so Brooks should keep the team in front of the chains, which can only be good news for Quinn Ewers at Quarter Back.

Some big numbers are being produced in the passing game and Ewers should have a comfortable day throwing the ball with the team operating out of third and manageable spots. Play-action could be employed to hit the Houston Secondary down the field and the Longhorns look more than capable of scoring each time they have the ball in their hands.

Motivation for the Cougars will make them dangerous, but the Longhorns are being targeted by all of the teams in the Big 12 as one of two schools ready to depart for the SEC. Despite that, Texas are still winning plenty of games by wide margins and the Longhorns have covered in each of their last four games following a loss.

It should be a high-scoring game, but one or two turnovers could see Texas move away from the Houston Cougars and cover what is a very big number.

Virginia Cavaliers @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The numbers of the unbeaten teams in College Football took another hit last week, although the North Carolina Tar Heels (6-0) are still amongst them. Keeping that going would mean a place in the ACC Championship Game, which is the least expected from the Tar Heels after the start made to this season, while winning the Conference as an unbeaten team would mean a place in the College Football PlayOff.

After beating the Miami Hurricanes, the North Carolina Tar Heels are big favourites to beat the Virginia Cavaliers (1-5) who are coming in off a Bye Week, but who have lost both Conference games played.

This is a big step up from the overall level of competition that the Cavaliers have faced this season and yet they have struggled already. Virginia were blown out by the Maryland Terrapins in a non-Conference game and their last game at North Carolina ended in a 20 point defeat two years ago with the two teams operating at very different levels in 2023.

Tony Muskett and the Cavaliers Offensive unit are going to have a tough time moving the ball with consistency against this Tar Heels team. The Quarter Back will need to be playing at his best to do so with the Virginia Offensive Line likely going to struggle to establish the run against this Tar Heels Defense.

The pressure will be all around Muskett if the Cavaliers are in third and long situations and the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the ball-hawking abilities of this North Carolina Secondary. In recent games turnovers have helped the Tar Heels remain unbeaten and they will certainly feel they can tempt Tony Muskett into a mistake or two if he is having to throw the ball to keep the chains moving.

It will feel much different when North Carolina have the ball thanks to Drake Maye and this strong Offensive unit that has been powering the unbeaten start to the season. A lot of attention will be paid to the Quarter Back, but this is a game in which the Tar Heels Offensive Line will be able to open up some big holes for the ground attack and that should mean Drake Maye is comfortable when he does step back to throw the ball.

A limited pass rush means Maye will likely be playing with plenty of time in the pocket anyway, but establishing the run will just make things that much easier for him. Turnovers could be an issue when it comes to covering a line as big as this one, although the time and down and distance is in favour of Drake Maye and that should see him keep the team moving up and down the field.

You cannot ignore the poor record that the Tar Heels have had as a double digit favourite since the start of last season, and they are playing after an important win. However, there is a real rivalry with Virginia and that should keep the team focused, while the home crowd are not likely to allow the Tar Heels to step off the gas as they look to put an impressive win on the board that could keep the PlayOff Committee firmly focused on North Carolina.

Both Tennessee and Maryland have crushed Virginia at home this season and North Carolina are arguably better than both- the Cavaliers have just not been impressive this season and it could lead to a big win for the Tar Heels.

MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 17 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 19.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 23 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels - 23.5 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights - 5.5 Points @ 1.80 William Hill (1 Unit)

Iowa Hawkeyes - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Coral (1 Unit)

TCU Horned Frogs + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Florida State Seminoles - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)