NFL Week 4 Picks 2022 (September 29-October 3)

It feels like we wait forever for the return of the College Football and NFL games, but all of a sudden you look up and a quarter of the regular season is about to enter the record books.

After a couple of mixed weeks for the NFL Picks, Week 3 has proved to be very productive with a 6-1 record for the selections and it gives me a platform to build upon moving forward.

I just don't want to give anything back immediately and so Week 4 is a pivotal one to make sure I avoid overthinking my selections.

Before I get into my Picks, I have a few thoughts about what we saw in Week 3.

After three weeks of the season and the defeat suffered by the New York Giants, there are only two teams left with perfect records.

Some may have pointed to the Philadelphia Eagles being one of those, but the Miami Dolphins have surprised most, especially when you think of the schedule they have had to navigate.

Out of the two teams, the Eagles feel more 'real' as they have largely dominated their games compared with the Miami Dolphins who have perhaps needed a few things to break their way in wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills. It does not feel as sustainable, although the Dolphins should be targeting a strong run through to the Bye date considering they are now going to be facing Cincinnati, New York Jets, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Chicago and Cleveland through to the middle of November.

Miami should be looking at no worse than a 7-3 record by then and they can build some momentum, but Philadelphia have been the more impressive of the 3-0 teams remaining and with games against Jacksonville, Arizona and Dallas to come, they should be looking at extending that unbeaten run a few more weeks yet.

Seeing teams remain unbeaten this early into the NFL season is not uncommon, but we usually have a few teams who have an imperfect record.

This season is different with the Las Vegas Raiders the only team to have lost all three games.

Last season close games went their way and the Raiders made the PlayOffs, but in 2022 those margins are going against them and I do think it is a long road back in the AFC West.

The Raiders Bye is scheduled for mid-October, but they are under pressure to rally right now- before then Las Vegas are facing Denver and Kansas City and you would think the season is over if the Raiders are not able to win both of those.

When a Head Coach has three winning seasons in succession, during which time the team won a Super Bowl too, you would think one poor season could be forgiven.

That was not the case in Philadelphia as the Eagles fired Doug Pederson, who had fallen out with Quarter Back Carson Wentz.

Doug Pederson spent some time away from the game before returning as Head Coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars and the early signs are that the long-suffering Jags fans will finally have someone leading who can restore the franchise to better days.

Not many would have picked the Jaguars to be leading the AFC South after three games, but they are the sole team in the Division with a winning record and will be looking for a third win in a row in Week 4.

Of course sport always finds a way to make headlines- Doug Pederson will be taking his Jacksonville team into Philadelphia to try and upset the unbeaten Eagles.

And I don't doubt for a second the fans will not be spitting too much love in the direction of the Head Coach who took them to their sole Super Bowl Championship.

Injuries, injuries, injuries.

Nothing can frustrate a fanbase and a team more than seeing key players going down and there were more who are going to have to sit on the sidelines after another bruising week of NFL action.

Mac Jones is going to be a huge miss for the New England Patriots if he is going spend any length of time out of the lineup, but losing your Quarter Back is an obvious blow.

The injuries that really hurt come along the Offensive and Defensive Lines and some of the unsung players in the Secondary that may not earn the same headlines as the Quarter Backs, but who are absolutely essential for teams to achieve all they set out to do.

So often games are won or lost at the Line of Scrimmage and I do think those injuries are the ones that can determine the outcome of a game on a week by week basis and ultimately will dictate how the season ends up unfolding.

My Power Ranking Top Five: Philadelphia, Miami, Buffalo, Kansas City, Baltimore.

My Bottom Five: Las Vegas, Houston, Seattle, New York Jets, Washington.

The NFL Picks for Week 4 can be read below.

Miami Dolphins @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: It might not be a style of win they can replicate too often in the NFL, but the Miami Dolphins (3-0) won't care about anything other than still being unbeaten right now. They are the only team in the AFC that can say that and have already beaten two of their Divisional rivals following the Week 3 win over the Buffalo Bills, although it may be one that has come with some cost.

Tua Tagovailoa is pushing hard to be ready for Thursday Night Football, but it does not say much about his chances of playing when Head Coach Mike McDaniel admitted his Quarter Back would be considered Questionable in a usual week and if this game was set for a Sunday/Monday. Instead the Dolphins are heading off to face the Cincinnati Bengals (1-2) on a short week and at this stage it would be considered a surprise if Tagovailoa is able to suit up.

The Bengals secured a win over the New York Jets on Sunday, but they have suffered disappointing losses to open the season and needed that win to snap a three game losing run. Fortunately for Cincinnati, the AFC North does not exactly look the deepest of Divisions and a win on Thursday Night Football would mean they share the same number as the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns before both of those teams play later this week.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals will feel they still have some questions to answer about whether they are completely over their Super Bowl defeat, but the win over the Jets at least gives them some confidence. Tee Higgins is a doubt for the home team, but I still expect Joe Burrow to have a strong game at the Quarter Back position with the weapons the Bengals have given him.

The Quarter Back has to be excited about his chances of backing up the win over the Jets when you see the holes the Miami Dolphins have had in the Secondary, despite the unbeaten start to the season. They have given up plenty of yards through the air and the Bengals have the weapons to take advantage, while Joe Mixon is likely to be a factor catching the ball out of the backfield.

I expect Joe Burrow to be given enough time behind this Offensive Line, which has struggled this season, and that is largely down to the inconsistent Miami pass rush. There have been times the Dolphins have made the big plays at the line of scrimmage, but the feeling is that Cincinnati can run the ball better than they have for much of the season and that should set Burrow up in third and manageable situations to negate the need to let plays develop for too long down the field.

The question for the Miami Dolphins in this game is more about how much Offensive output they can get with the little time to prepare for Thursday Night Football. A limited Tua Tagovailoa will find it tough, but Miami do have an effective backup in Teddy Bridgewater and I think the former starter for the Minnesota Vikings and Denver Broncos will be able to have a decent game in relief of Tagovailoa.

One problem for Miami is that they continue to be a little one-dimensional Offensively as they have struggled to run the ball with any real conviction. They are unlikely to have much more joy against the Cincinnati Defensive Line, even with DJ Reader expected to miss out for the home team, and that would force Teddy Bridgewater to play with accuracy from third and long spots.

Like Joe Burrow, Miami have surrounded their Quarter Back with strong Receiving threats and both Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill have made strong starts to the season. However, Waddle is a little banged up and Teddy Bridgewater may not have the same chemistry as Tua Tagovailoa has shown he has with his new look Offensive skill players.

I still think there is a chance for Teddy Bridgewater to play well if Miami do have to call his number, but being in third and long means dealing with the Bengals pass rush and a Secondary which has played pretty well despite injuries.

Granted the Bengals numbers look better for the mere fact they have faced Mitchell Trubisky, Cooper Rush and Joe Flacco, but I do think a desperate team at home can have the edge on a short week.

For starters they are facing a Miami team that is coming in off an emotional win and this is the meat in the AFC East sandwich they are dealing with in Week 3 and Week 5. A banged up Quarter Back and a rough time being had by those remaining in Florida as they deal with Hurricane Ian are other distractions and I think the Cincinnati Bengals will be able to edge to a win and a cover of this mark.

The spread is a touch higher than I would have hoped for, but I think that is down to the fact that the Miami Dolphins will be going in with a backup Quarter Back. The rest of the team will want to step up for Teddy Bridgewater, but the struggles to run the ball may hurt Miami here.

Miami have been a really strong team to back at the window over the last couple of seasons, especially when they have been set as the underdog, but I think they used a lot of emotional and physical energy to beat the Buffalo Bills and it may leave them short. The Bengals have also covered in their last seven games against a team with a winning record, while they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine Conference games and I think Cincinnati can be backed to end the last unbeaten record in the AFC on Thursday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Cincinnati Bengals - 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

College Football Week 4 Picks 2022 (September 24th)

Under the current alignment of College Football, the reality is that the real moves in the PlayOff shake up don't really begin until Conference play gets underway.

While one or two teams have already played a big game within their Conferences, for most teams those games begin in Week 4 and we will begin to see some separation of those hoping to crash the four team PlayOff and those who are going to fall away and perhaps target Bowl Games, and play spoiler for others, at best.

The four team PlayOff system has encouraged schools to take on tougher non-Conference games rather than the blowout warm ups we have tended to see, but the reality is that the unbeaten season is no longer the be all and end all of the final shake up. Of course if we have four unbeaten Power 5 Conference teams they are very likely to make the post-season and try and win a National Championship, but in reality a one loss team is far from done.

Winning Conferences remains a very important part of being invited into the final four, although the SEC has a leg up on most others and the losing team in the SEC Championship Game has a big opportunity to earn a PlayOff spot as long as they have not suffered a defeat in the regular season before that Championship defeat.

Picking a final four in late September is a foolish task, but you have to imagine the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide would both make it having competed for the National Championship last season. If they are both unbeaten in the regular season, they will meet in the SEC Championship Game in December and even a losing team would have a chance of another National Championship run.

However, this season there seems a number of teams who have genuine hopes of winning a Power 5 Conference as an unbeaten Champion and that could hurt the loser of the SEC Championship Game if the season shapes up as it has the potential to do on paper.

For example, the Oklahoma Sooners, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Clemson Tigers and USC Trojans have all looked very impressive. None of those teams have easy runs to remain unbeaten (of course Ohio State and Michigan play in the same Division, never mind Conference), but all will feel they have laid the foundations for what could be a special season and I am really excited about this 2022 College Football season to say the least.

The first couple of weeks for the College Football Picks have been a little up and down, but it is early in what is a long, long season and there is plenty of time to get things motoring in the right direction.

Conference Games are starting this week and there are plenty of good games on the Week 4 slate.

Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Even fans of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) must have forgotten the time when they were amongst the very top teams in the SEC, but there is an excitement building in Knoxville. Head Coach Josh Heupel is only in his second year at the helm here, but is already well on the way to at least matching the seven wins earned in his first season, although expectations are much greater than that.

It is never going to be easy to sit in the same Division as the National Champions, but the Tennessee Volunteers have opened the season playing well enough to be considered one of the main rivals to the Georgia Bulldogs. The schedule in Conference play is going to provide a significant test for the Head Coach and the Volunteers over the weeks ahead, but they have an opportunity to go into the Bye Week unbeaten before big games against the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide from the SEC West.

In Week 4 the concentration is on their own Division as the Volunteers prepare to host the Florida Gators (2-1), a school that has gotten the better of Tennessee on an almost annual basis. In fact, the Gators have won sixteen of the last seventeen games between these SEC East rivals to dominate the series, although this time around the Volunteers are significant favourites to come out on top.

After beating the Utah Utes to open the season, Florida have been undone in their first Conference game against the Kentucky Wildcats and barely held on for a win over in-State rivals the USF Bulls last week. Pressure is building on Anthony Richardson after consecutive games where he has underperformed and all talk of him being compared with the likes of Cam Newton are on hold.

This is going to be a challenging game for Anthony Richardson and the Florida Offensive unit as they don't seem to match up that well with the Tennessee Volunteers who have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers have not really been able to reach the standards set in the 2019 season in the last two years, but the experience of playing in this system has led to three strong performances to open this season and that will give them confidence after seeing the Gators looking a little toothless.

Much depends on the battle at the line of scrimmage where Florida's Offensive Line will be looking to set the table by establishing the run. Running the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers will be a challenge though and the key for the home team will be to force Anthony Richardson to become a passer from third and long spots, a situation that will not play to the strengths of the Quarter Back.

There have been one or two opportunities to throw against this Volunteers Secondary, but the numbers may be skewed by the fact that teams have had to throw to keep up. While Anthony Richardson has largely had a clean pocket to operate from, he has not been consistent and I would not be surprised if there are one or two Interceptions up for grabs for the home team.

Extra possessions could really see Tennessee turn the screw against a Divisional rival that has made this series embarrassingly one-sided in recent times.

The Volunteers will certainly feel they can have plenty of success whenever they do have the ball in the hands of an Offensive unit that has eight starters back from the team almost doubled the points per game from 2020 (21 points per game) to 2021 (39 points per game). Key skill players returned and Hendon Hooker is much more experienced at Quarter Back now he is in the second year of this system and the early results have been really encouraging for the Volunteers.

Throwing against the non-Conference opponents that have been beaten is a different test than facing a SEC Secondary, but the Volunteers can make things easier for Hooker at Quarter Back by establishing the run. They are up against a Gators Defensive Line which has struggled early this season and I do think Tennessee will be able to get their Offensive Line chugging in run blocking, while also making them more effective in pass blocking from third and short situations.

I can't ignore how one-sided this series has been in recent years, but this Tennessee team looks like they are on the up and up and they can make a statement against the Florida Gators. Make no mistake that this is a big spread in a SEC Divisional Game, but the Volunteers look to have a superior edge on both sides of the ball and I think Head Coach Josh Heupel will know how important it is for his team to really announce themselves on a big stage.

With a Bye Week coming up, Tennessee can leave it all out on the field and I think they will as they use the Secondary to create a couple of turnovers and give their potent Offense the chance to pull away in the second half. Anthony Richardson will be playing with a point to prove at Quarter Back for the Florida Gators and he can be dangerous as a dual-threat, but I will look for the Volunteers to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that can ultimately make the difference for them.

While Florida have a strong record against Tennessee, they have failed to cover in their last eight road games overall and I think that trend continues at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers are 5-2 against the spread as a home favourite under their current Head Coach and I will back Tennessee to win this one and cover the big mark set.

Wisconsin Badgers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They may have dominated the yardage on the day, but the Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) will be frustrated by the home loss to the Washington State Cougars in Week 2 of the College Football season. Head Coach Paul Chryst has only led the Badgers to a single double digit winning season in the last four and that defeat has put him under a bit of pressure even if it came in a non-Conference setting.

They have failed to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game since winning ten games in the 2019 season and that has to be the aim in 2022 considering some of the struggles of the other teams in the West Division. This is easily the weaker of the two Divisions within the Conference, but Wisconsin have a tough schedule to negotiate beginning with this trip to Columbus.

Wisconsin will be facing the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) who have made yet another strong start to a season where National Championship aspirations are very high. Ryan Day has continued to lead the team to double digit winning seasons after the 11-2 record in 2021 and only the shortened 2020 season has been the outlier as Ohio State have won at least ten games in every season since 2012.

However, winning the National Championship has eluded this proud school since 2014 and Ryan Day will feel that anything less than that will always be something detractors could hold over him. Losing the Big Ten Championship last season will have hurt the Buckeyes, who had not failed to win their Conference since 2016, and especially as Ohio State were finally beaten by the Michigan Wolverines.

Ryan Day is unlikely to be sitting on a hot seat, but reaching the PlayOffs has to be the very minimum of aims for the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2022 and that brings pressure. His team have started like they have something to prove too and there is plenty of experience on both sides of the ball which makes the Buckeyes very dangerous.

A win over Notre Dame to open the season perhaps does not look as impressive as it did after Week 1, but Ohio State have crushed overmatched non-Conference opponents in the last two weeks. This is a much tougher test for them Offensively compared with facing Arkansas State and Toledo, but CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit will believe they can push the Wisconsin Badgers.

As with many games, the line of scrimmage will be very important- Ohio State have been able to run the ball efficiently this season, but the Badgers Defensive Line prides itself on shutting down the run and forcing Offensives to become one-dimensional against them.

It is never easy to run the ball against Wisconsin, but I do think the Buckeyes Offensive Line is a real strength for them this season and can give their Quarter Back a chance by putting the team in third and manageable situations. This will be key to give CJ Stroud to hit his playmakers in the Wisconsin Secondary and ease the Badgers pass rush, which has been able to get after the Quarter Back in their early games, although the Buckeyes Offensive Line have provided clean pockets for Stroud when he has stepped back to throw.

Ohio State will be able to move the ball, even if not as efficiently as they did against the Toledo Rockets in their last game, and that means Wisconsin are going to have to find the Offensive plays to stay with their hosts.

The Badgers have crushed a couple of overmatched opponents with their Offensive output, but there has to be a concern that they managed just 14 points against the Washington State Cougars, a team not nearly as strong as Ohio State's Defensive unit are.

Like their opponent, the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been stout against the run and I do think they may not have the same respect for the Wisconsin Quarter Back as the other way around. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced, but the Quarter Back has a tendency to make poor decisions when throwing in the Secondary and that is underlined by the fact he had more Interceptions than Touchdown passes in 2021.

You simply do not want to get too far behind if you are the Wisconsin Badgers as Graham Mertz will be throwing against an elite Ohio State Secondary. Turnovers have not really come about just yet, but the Buckeyes are not giving away too much through the air and I do think the focus will be to shut down the run and make Mertz beat them.

Ultimately this feels like it is going to be a game that sees the difference in levels between the two Quarter Backs prove to be a pivotal factor in the outcome of the game. Where CJ Stroud could make one or two big time throws to keep the chains moving, the worry about Graham Mertz is that he may have a back-breaking Interception and it could be the reason the Ohio State Buckeyes are able to pull away and eventually cover what is a massive line, all things considered.

The Badgers have not been a very good road underdog to back in recent times and they are 1-3 against the spread in their last four in that situation. Ryan Day's Ohio State have not always been the best home favourite to back, but I expect them to be really focused on a team many consider to be the best in the Big Ten West and they have beaten Wisconsin eight times in a row, while the Buckeyes are also 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six hosting the Badgers.

Sharp money looks to be moving this spread further in the direction of the favourite and I think the Ohio State Buckeyes will find a way to cover a huge number.

Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: There will have been a real sense of disappointment in the Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) locker room after the defeat to Tulane, but there will be some feeling that they were looking past an opponent as a big favourite and thinking ahead to the start of Big 12 Conference play.

That is no excuse for the Wildcats, but I certainly think we are going to see a much better effort all around in Week 4 of the College Football season.

They will need a much better effort if they are going to beat the Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) in Norman and the Wildcats will be confident as they have become something of a bogey team for one of the National Championship favourites. There is always quite a heavy turnover of players out of Oklahoma between seasons as players decide to move to the NFL, but the school will be well aware of how tough Kansas State are within this Conference, whether you play them at home or on the road.

A first year Head Coach is taking over a team with five starters returning on both sides of the ball, but the Oklahoma Sooners usually have strong recruiting years and the crushing of the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road shows how good this team can be. Head Coach Brent Venables won't be getting carried away, but he has to like what he has seen from Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back and from a Defensive unit which has looked imperious in dismissing three non-Conference opponents.

However, Venables will also be well aware of the increase in challenge that comes with playing in the Big 12 and much of their Offensive success depends on the Offensive Line establishing the run. The Oklahoma Sooners are going to have a tough test of their credentials against the Kansas State Defensive unit which has seven returning starters and who have proven to be a difficult team to attack either through the air or on the ground.

I do think the Sooners have the power on the line of scrimmage to set Dillon Gabriel up in third and manageable spots, and that is going to be really important for them. Running the ball opens up play-action down the field and I do think Dillon Gabriel will be able to attack what may be one of the better Secondaries in the Big 12 and perhaps even the nation of College Football.

Offensively the Sooners look strong, but it could be the Defensive unit that takes them back into the College Football PlayOff and perhaps even win a National Championship. There are likely to be bigger tests to come compared with what they have faced early in the 2022 season, but the Sooners have been strong on the Defensive Line and shutting down the Kansas State running game is going to give them a real edge in this game.

It won't be easy as the Wildcats bring in an experienced Offensive Line who will feel they can force their will on any team they face with the numbers already produced this season. Doing that against the Sooners is a tougher test, but Kansas State have to find a way to put their Quarter Back in a promising position by getting in front of the chains.

Having Adrian Martinez behind Center helps, but the Wildcats will need the Quarter Back to show off a little more with his arm if they are going to give Oklahoma something to think about. He proved he can do that when playing Quarter Back for the Nebraska Cornhuskers against Oklahoma in 2021, although Adrian Martinez is never too far away from an Interception and will have to be a little wary of the Sooners Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.

I do think Kansas State can have success and they can be competitive, but my feeling is that the Oklahoma Sooners will be too consistent on both sides of the ball and eventually that can lead to a turnover or two to help them pull away.

The Wildcats do have a strong recent record when facing the Sooners, although the home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series.

Over the last decade, Kansas State have been a strong road underdog to back, but in Chris Klieman's time as Head Coach they are just 6-5 against the spread in this spot. Oklahoma continue to be a productive home favourite to back and they can stay focused to beat a team that have given them problems in recent years as the National Championship talk ramps up around Norman.

USC Trojans @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: Not many fans in Oklahoma will be impressed with the way Lincoln Riley not only left their Sooners to become the new Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0), but the fact he managed to bring a couple of huge names with him in the transfer portal would have really stung. I would personally love to see a Trojans-Sooners game in the post-season, preferably in the College Football PlayOff, but there is a long road to run between Week 4 and the final selections.

All the USC Trojans can do is win the Pac-12 Conference and they may need to do that as an unbeaten team to be invited in, barring other big schools falling short of expectations. Lincoln Riley has become a Coach that has regularly guided teams to the PlayOff and he will know that the focus has to be on performing at their maximum in each passing week and the Trojans have looked strong.

The Trojans already have one Conference win under their belt, but this is another big test for them as they face the Oregon State Beavers (3-0) on the road. Jonathan Smith guided the Beavers to their first winning season in eight years when leading them to a 7-6 2021 season and the start made this season comes behind a team that is loaded with experience.

Over the next two weeks we will learn plenty about Oregon State as they face the top two teams from the Pac-12 South and it looks like Smith has made sure the cupboard is far from bare despite losing some key Offensive skill players. The powerful Offensive Line will feel they can open holes for any Running Back and the Beavers have produced some big numbers on the ground and I expect them to have success against the USC Defensive Line allowing 4.8 yards per carry.

Staying in front of the chains will mean the Beavers are not going to be dealing with the fierce USC pass rush, while Chance Nolan continues to produce strong numbers from the Quarter Back position. As long as the Beavers remain in third and manageable spots, Nolan and company should be able to make the throws against the Secondary to keep the chains moving and try and stay with the Trojans on the scoreboard.

And it will be about staying with the USC Offensive unit who are averaging over 50 points per game and who have crushed the Stanford Cardinal on the road. Bringing in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back from the Oklahoma Sooners has been huge for the Trojans and he has been very good at looking after the ball as well as producing the big numbers.

Caleb Williams has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Beavers Secondary, although there are holes to exploit too with what has to be the best Receiving corps in the Pac-12. The options for the Quarter Back are very dangerous and it may mean teams are bring in more Defensive Backs to slow down the Trojans, but that is not an easy decision when you think of how well the USC Offensive Line is playing.

The expectation is that the Trojans can continue dominating at the line of scrimmage and they should be able to pound the ball with a lot of success against this Beavers Defensive Line.

Both teams should have success moving the ball, but you have to have a little more belief in the Trojans who have the talent to win a National Championship. USC are also playing with revenge after being beaten by 18 points at home by the Oregon State Beavers last season and this is a team who are 7-0 against the spread when playing a Conference opponent with revenge, as long as that opponent is coming in off a straight up win in which they covered the spread.

It is the situation here in Corvallis, although Oregon State have to be respected for going 8-1 against the spread in their last nine at home.

In some ways this line feels like a trap, but I do think the USC Trojans are the superior team with the Offensive talent they have.

A blow out is unlikely, but the line is below a key number and I think that gives USC the opportunity to win a second road game in the Pac-12 and also cover. The Trojans have been good to me early in this season and I think they can be backed here to win a high-scoring game in which their Secondary makes one more play than the Oregon State one.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Ohio State Buckeyes - 19.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Cincinnati Bearcats - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Mississippi Rebels - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

South Carolina Gamecocks - 23.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Washington Huskies - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Joe Joyce vs Joseph Parker (September 24th)

Father Time remains unbeaten in all sports and this is a week in which Roger Federer announced that he will retire from Tennis as his body has finally begun to break down.

Serena Williams is another fading legend who called time on her career earlier this month, but both are playing tennis and the latter days of a player's career are hard to watch, but not nearly like what Boxing fans have to endure.

I hate the Muhammad Ali-Larry Holmes fight and have never taken the time to sit down and watch that in full as the faded 'Greatest of All Time' was badly advised to take the fight against a much younger and fresher Champion.

Last weekend was not that level of one-sided beating that should never be allowed to be seen again, but Gennady Golovkin is clearly a long way down the other side of the mountain after reaching his peak level. He was not really competitive against Canelo Alvarez as the trilogy between these two came to a conclusion and, much like Ali, I think his toughness will end up working against him if he decides to continue his career much longer.

Retirement is a personal decision and Gennady Golovkin may still feel he has something to offer at the Middleweight limit where he is still holding Belts to be called a World Champion, but the Kazakhstan future Hall of Famer has nothing left to prove. He should have had a win over Canelo on his resume, but you cannot go back and fix that now and I am not sure there is much point carrying on rather than finishing off as a World Champion as Golovkin can if he calls time on his career now.

A fight against Erislandy Lara has been touted and I do think that is one where Gennady Golovkin will have a real chance to go out with a win against another veteran, while unlikely to ship the kind of punishment that the likes of Jermall Charlo could dish out.

I just don't want Golovkin to go on too long now- he is set from a financial perspective and there is nothing much for him to prove, while unlike legends from most other sports, Father Time in Boxing can have long-term consequences for fighters that no fan of the sport would want to see.

There is a big weekend of fights coming up, although at a level below the very elite in the Division, Shakur Stevenson apart.

The two cards in the United Kingdom look exciting, although it is a shame they are being run on the same night, while Shakur Stevenson will end his Super Featherweight time on Friday in the United States.

Last week saw the Picks go 1-2 and earn a very slight profit, but I am still looking for a better win-loss ratio to end the 2022 year of Boxing selections.

Shakur Stevenson vs Robson Conceicao

Losing World Titles on the scale is never ideal, but Shakur Stevenson has long felt his time at the Super Featherweight limit was coming to a close.

In an ideal world he would have become Undisputed at 130 pounds before moving up into the loaded Lightweight Division, but the American was not quite able to get the other World Champions into the ring.

However, the win over Oscar Valdez has meant most consider Stevenson as the man in this Division and there will be a lot of interest in him as he moves alongside the likes of Devin Haney, Vasyl Lomachenko, Gervonta Davis and Isaac Cruz.

There are some big fights ahead, but Shakur Stevenson cannot overlook Robson Conceicao even after losing his Belts on the scale. People will question how much he has drained himself to try and even make the 130 pound limit, while a defeat here will knock some of the superstar shine that has begun to build on Shakur Stevenson so this is a massive fight for him, even now.

I do think he will be too slick and clever for Robson Conceicao who is a solid fighter, but one who lacks the punch power that may be needed to try and take Shakur Stevenson out of his comfort zone.

The Brazilian was pretty handily beaten on the cards by Oscar Valdez in his sole professional loss, but he has a decent amateur background and Robson Conceicao may feel he has nothing to lose by taking this fight to Shakur Stevenson.

My concern is that the Robson Conceicao could lose interest in trying to win the fight if he has not been able to make a dent early and even Shakur Stevenson has admitted that his bouts can be a little 'boring' when he coasts towards the finish. I do think he has been advised to turn on the style when in control and he has made a more concerted effort to try and get rid of opponents without going to the cards and my feeling is that he will be approaching this one in the same way.

His natural size advantage may come into play now he has decided not to shift the remaining pounds to get into the 130 limit, although Robson Conceicao looks a pretty durable character. Taking nothing away from the Challenger, Shakur Stevenson may just have enough sharpness to find a way to get this done late on and I do think a small interest is warranted on that happening.

Since the win over Jeremia Nakathila, when Shakur Stevenson was critical of his own performance, the American has pushed ahead and stopped Jamel Herring and almost managed to d the same against a very tough Oscar Valdez. I expect Stevenson to sit on his punches in the second half of this one when it feels it is firmly under control and he may show enough for the referee to step in and call off the assault before the move into the Lightweight Division.

There are some decent prospects on the undercard of this Friday night offering, but the most exciting has to be Keyshawn Davis.

At 23 years old, Davis looks like he could become a major star with the expectation he will fill out and move up the Divisions from the 135 pound limit he is currently operating within.

The comparison has been made with Terence Crawford and Keyshawn Davis is trained under the same umbrella. There is much to like about the way he goes about his 'business' in the ring and a lethal finisher could steal the show on Friday.

Four of his five wins have come inside the distance and he won't have to look too hard to find veteran Omar Tienda Bahena who at 34 years old is looking for a career defining upset. The Mexican has only been Stopped once before, and he has won seven in a row, but Bahena has not really faced this level of opponent and that should show up here.

Keyshawn Davis should have been out in July, but instead has had five months between fights due to an illness. He has spoken about getting one more bout in before the end of the year and then stepping up his level of opponent in the coming twelve months, and I think Davis can keep that plan in place by making sure this fight is over before the halfway mark.

You can never dismiss the toughness of a Mexican, but Keyshawn Davis hits very hard for the weight and standing in front of him could be a very bad mistake.

Maxi Hughes vs Kid Galahad

The Matchroom card on DAZN was expected to be topped by Leigh Wood vs Mauricio Lara in what looked like being a barnstormer of a fight, but injury to Wood has postponed that bout to another date.

Instead Maxi Hughes vs Kid Galahad has been promoted into the main event spot and the IBO World Lightweight Title is on the line. The IBO trinket is perhaps not the main draw of the fight, but Kid Galahad is coming up in weight and the winner of this one may earn themselves a strong IBF Ranking by the end of the contest.

The last time we saw Galahad was ten months ago when he was blitzed by Kiko Martinez having seemingly been in complete control of that fight. A huge punch put him down hard at the end of the Fifth Round, and Kid Galahad was clearly not right coming out for the Sixth Round as he was Stopped after a further six seconds.

Moving up two weights is going to be a challenge for Kid Galahad, but the expectation is that he will be stronger for the extra pounds he can carry and he is the favourite against Maxi Hughes.

All credit has to be given to Maxi Hughes who has won six in a row since his defeat to Liam Walsh in 2019 and being an underdog is not something that will bother a boxer who is overachieving to get to this stage of his career. Most would have expected his career to be over after that defeat in 2019, but Hughes has upset the odds a number of times to produce the six wins in a row and he will feel he is the naturally bigger fighter in the ring.

I expect Hughes to try and impose that on Kid Galahad, but I do think the latter is the better boxer.

He should be better having looked drained to make Super Featherweight, while Galahad has shown enough in his career to think he was just caught with an almost perfect punch from a hard hitting Kiko Martinez. Maxi Hughes has not really shown he has that same power with just five stoppages in his career and I think Kid Galahad can make a big statement of his intent in this Division on Saturday.

This is a crossroads fight for Kid Galahad, but he is only a couple of fights removed from breaking down Jezza Dickens and I think he can do something similar in this one. Maxi Hughes has been stopped twice before and I believe a slick Galahad can begin to sit on his punches in the second half of this Title fight and he looks a big price to earn a stoppage victory.

There is a deep undercard to back up the main event and there are a couple of fights of interest when it comes to the Boxing Picks.

First up is Hannah Rankin's defence of her World Title against Terri Harper who is coming up a couple of weight classes as she looks to become a two weight World Champion.

Her Knock Out defeat to Alycia Baumgardner was a real eye-opener, and I do think this is a considerable rise in weight, although it has not always been a big issue in the women's side of the sport.

Terri Harper is fortunate to also have been given a Draw when facing Natasha Jonas and now has to face a confident Hannah Rankin who has been in with the likes of Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall. The defeats to arguably the two best pound for pound boxers on this side of the sport are nothing to be overly concerned about and Hannah Rankin is experienced and confident at the weight.

The Scot has recovered from the loss to Marshall to win three in a row and I do think the layers are underestimating her chances of winning this bout too. I simply am not that high on Terri Harper and I do think the comfort of fighting at the Light Middleweight limit gives Rankin enough of an edge to earn the upset.

She did earn a Stoppage in her last fight and the way Terri Harper was hurt at the lower weights has to be a major concern, so I think a small interest on the Champion to hold onto her Titles is the play at a big price.

Joe Joyce vs Joseph Parker

Take away Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury and there are a host of Heavyweight contenders jockeying to position themselves as the next contender for World Title honours.

Ring Magazine has Joe Joyce and Joseph Parker Ranked in their current top six and the Interim WBO World Title will be on the line when they choose to meet on Saturday.

Joe Joyce is unbeaten, but at 37 years old it does feel like time is very much not on his side.

At 30 years old Joseph Parker is a former World Champion who gave up his Title in passive style when losing to Anthony Joshua in 2018. He suffered another defeat later in the same year when going down to a Unanimous Decision defeat to Dillian Whyte in what was a back and forth battle, but Parker has reinvented himself under the guidance of Andy Lee and has won six in a row.

The last two have been wins over Dereck Chisora after partnering with Lee and I do think there is something left in the tank. However, Joseph Parker is going to have to find a way to stop the Juggernaut and this has proven too difficult for fourteen other men of which thirteen have not made it to the final bell.

Sometimes you can watch Joe Joyce and believe he is going to struggle when he steps up his level of competition- he ships plenty of punches, but the chin has been unbreakable so far, although in this one Joe Joyce is going to have to deal with speed as well as some pop.

I think early on Joseph Parker is going to be a real threat, but he is unlikely to deter Joe Joyce from coming forward and the big question for the New Zealander is how he can handle the older fighter if his own power has not stopped the Juggernaut continuing to push forward. It broke down Daniel Dubois, although Joyce's performance against Christian Hammer was less impressive back in July.

Shaking off the ring rust is important and I do think Joe Joyce is going to make Parker work a lot more than most Heavyweights are used to doing.

As impressive as Joseph Parker was in his win over Dereck Chisora in December, I do think there are some questions for him to answer- he was once in the same boat as Joe Joyce as being able to rely on a solid chin, but in more recent times those defences have been breached by both Chisora and Dillian Whyte who have been able to put Parker down.

Assuming Joe Joyce's chin is able to stand up to Joseph Parker's early power and speed, I do think the British fighter can wear down someone who is comfortable fighting in Manchester. Joe Joyce may even be the one with fewer support on the night, but I don't think that will bother him and he can do what he has become famous for and that is to break down his opponent who perhaps loses some faith when their own punches are not having the desired effect.

Joseph Parker is a tough Kiwi and stopping him will be far from easy, but this is a chance for Joe Joyce to really make a statement and a small interest on a second half stoppage for the unbeaten boxer at a big price looks the play.

This card is being put together by Queensberry and Boxxer and that has enabled them to have a decent undercard for the main event in Manchester.

Arguably the biggest name on the undercard is Amanda Serrano who has dropped back down to Featherweight as she returns to the ring for the first time since losing narrowly to Katie Taylor at Lightweight.

Both of those boxers have spoken about a rematch, but for now Amanda Serrano looks to Unify the Featherweight Division. She is taking on an unbeaten Sarah Mahfoud, but this is a big step up for the Danish fighter who has never fought outside of her own country.

Amanda Serrano hits plenty hard and she forces Stoppages early in fights, even in the two minute Round setting, and I do think she bounces back from her loss to Katie Taylor with a stylish performance in front of the British fans.

Clamour will only increase for a rematch with Taylor with an impressive win and I do think Amanda Serrano can earn that with an early night.

Mark Heffron will have a relative homecoming as the new British Super Middleweight and Commonwealth Middleweight Champion following a hugely impressive win over Lennox Clarke in July.

He is facing a rugged Argentinian, but I think the match up is one that gives Heffron a chance to just show off his new found form at this weight and secure an early win.

There is a very good fight at the Welterweight limit as the British and Commonwealth Belts are on the line and it is one which could go back and forth between Ekow Essuman and Samuel Antwi.

Both have shown a solid level, but Essuman looks to be peaking at 33 years old and can find a stoppage in this one as 'The Engine' wears down a tough opponent.

MY PICKS: Shakur Stevenson to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Keyshawn Davis to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Kid Galahad to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.50 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Hannah Rankin to Win @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Joe Joyce to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Amanda Serrano to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Mark Heffron to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ekow Essuman to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 29-49, + 13.91 Units (140 Units Staked, + 9.94% Yield)

NFL Week 3 Picks 2022 (September 22-26)

After a losing Week 1, Week 2 proved to be stronger for the NFL Picks, although it could have been much better if not for a couple of disappointing endings to games.

That is the way it can go, but it is never a bad thing to say you're 'up' after a couple of weeks of regular season action and there is hopefully some momentum to take into Week 3.

Some early season thoughts before we get into the Week 3 Picks.

The Miami Dolphins spent big in the off-season and this was always going to be an important season for Tua Tagovailoa regardless as he looks to prove he can be the franchise Quarter Back for the Fins.

He cannot really complain about the talent that has been placed around him and the big outing in Week 2 is highly encouraging for the fans.

However, I do think the Dolphins have faced two relatively kind opponents and in Week 3 we are going to learn a lot more about them as they host what some will believe to be the best team in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills are on a short week, but they have crushed the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans and Josh Allen might just have forced his way into the Number 1 spot when it comes to Ranking Quarter Backs in the NFL.

I still think the PlayOffs is the aim for the Dolphins and they have a Division from which they can make a real push towards the post-season, but the games with the Bills may prove to be a reminder of how far they have still got to go before being considered as genuine Super Bowl contenders.

The AFC may boil down to the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers when it is all said and done, but the NFC looks wide open and you can make a case for perhaps double that amount of teams to reach the Super Bowl. Two of the leading contenders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers, face off in Week 3, but teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles are all going to believe they have the talent to win the Championship.

Right now, the 49ers look a very big price despite the injury to Trey Lance- keeping hold of Jimmy Garoppolo may prove to have been the key for San Francisco who only just felt short with Garoppolo under Center on a couple of occasions already.

The Cincinnati Bengals are perhaps suffering a hangover after unexpectedly reaching the Super Bowl before the narrow loss to the Los Angeles Rams and their 0-2 start is a concern. However, the AFC North looks a weak Division and I think the Bengals will begin their fightback in Week 3.

In saying that, I might change my mind completely about their chances if they are downed by the New York Jets as Divisional rivals the Cleveland Browns were last week.

In a long season, injuries are always going to play a big part and that is the same for Fantasy players.

My two teams running this season have been depleted badly already, although I don't have the same affection to those teams as in previous years having missed the Draft. That was a shame this time around and so the main concentration is with the NFL Picks.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Two AFC North rivals meet on Thursday Night Football and they will be looking to bounce back from disappointing Week 2 efforts that saw both teams suffer a first loss of the season. The Cleveland Browns (1-1) were a touch fortunate in Week 1 with a late Field Goal getting them over the line at the Carolina Panthers, but I don't think anyone on the roster will be able to explain how they became the first team in twenty-one years to blow a thirteen point lead in the final two minutes of a game.

Amazingly the last team to do that was also the Cleveland Browns and now they have to try and pick themselves up on a short week for the visit of the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1). After upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, the Steelers were beaten at home by the New England Patriots last Sunday and there is a continued problem on the Offensive side of the ball in a new era under Mitchell Trubisky.

It feels like only a matter of time before Kenny Pickett takes over at Quarter Back, but the rookie won't have much success unless the Pittsburgh Offensive Line and the play-calling is much improved. This is certainly not the kind of conditions in which you want to throw in a young Quarter Back either with the high winds expected in Cleveland, which should make it much harder to complete passes through the air.

Matt Canada is under pressure to open up the playbook, while some of the comments from Mitchell Trubisky have to be concerning for the Offensive Co-Ordinator considering how many believed he was a better fit for Canada than Ben Roethlisberger had been.

The new Quarter Back has not really been targeting his playmakers down the field and the passing numbers may not improve in this Week 3 game with the wind expected. The Cleveland Browns are likely able to bring a significant amount of pass rush pressure on Mitchell Trubisky and taking away his time will aid them in becoming the latest team to shut down the Steelers Offensively.

Najee Harris has not really been able to get much going behind this Steelers Offensive Line and it is not a game in which he is expected to thrive considering how stout the Cleveland Defensive Line have been in closing down the run. That only increases the pressure on Mitchell Trubisky and I do think this is a tough match up for the Steelers on this side of the ball.

At least the Defensive unit are playing their part in trying to give the Pittsburgh Steelers an opportunity to win games and they have yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. The pressure that they have been able to generate on the passer has helped, but the Steelers may find it tougher to get to Jacoby Brissett in this game considering the protection the Browns Offensive Line has been offering the backup Quarter Back.

There are some holes in the Steelers Secondary that can be exposed by Brissett, and players like Amari Cooper will feel they can win their battles on the outside, especially if Cleveland's Offensive Line can give their Quarter Back the time he needs.

Ultimately the Offensive Line have a clearer job in the conditions and that is paving the way for some big yards on the ground- Nick Chubb may have accepted the blame for scoring a Touchdown that allowed the New York Jets to come back last week when he could have stopped short of the goal-line and allowed the Browns to run out the clock.

He did that in a win over Houston before, but perhaps felt even the Browns could not find a way to blow a double digit lead with the two minute warning behind them. Even still, Nick Chubb will come out looking to run hard and I do think he will have success moving the ball on the ground in tandem with Kareem Hunt, who will also be a threat coming out of the backfield as a pass catcher too.

This is not the Pittsburgh Steel Curtain of old when it comes to stopping the run so the expectation is that Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt can put the Cleveland Browns in a strong position to keep the chains moving without leaning too much on Jacoby Brissett. The Quarter Back is also capable of moving the ball with his legs so the trio should be the key to the outcome of this Thursday Night Football game being played in strong winds.

I won't lie though, it is not easy to trust the Cleveland Browns who are 2-11 against the spread in Divisional Games under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski and who are just 5-11 against the spread in their sixteen home games under this Coach while being set as the favourite.

Those are pretty awful numbers, but Cleveland have tended to play well on the short week as the favourite and the feeling is that they can bounce back from an emotionally devastating defeat last Sunday.

Pittsburgh have a solid Head Coach in Mike Tomlin and he has helped the team bounce back from a loss by going 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in that spot. He continues to help the Steelers get the better of their Divisional rivals when it comes to the spread and the Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals outright in Week 1 on the road as a significant underdog.

Since 2018, the Steelers are also 19-8 against the spread as the dog, but playing as an underdog on Thursday Night Football has been more challenging and Pittsburgh are 0-2 against the spread in that spot in 2019 through 2021.

There is also the factor that Pittsburgh have dominated the recent series between these AFC North rivals, but this feels a game in which they may not have Offensive threat to stay with the Cleveland Browns. As I've said, it is not easy to back the Browns after watching the way they were beaten on Sunday, but they have looked the stronger of these two teams and the performances on Thursday Night Football have been good enough to back Kevin Stefanski in earning a rare cover over a Divisional rival.

Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears Pick: Picking bad teams to do good things is usually a quick path to the poor bank, but in this Week 3 game in the NFL, two bad teams are facing off against one another.

The Houston Texans (0-1-1) are chasing a first win of the season after losing to the Denver Broncos following a tie with the Indianapolis Colts, while there was no comeback for the Chicago Bears (1-1) in their loss to Divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.

At least the Bears have a win on the board, but both Chicago and Houston are in a transitional season and will be using the next several months to really take stock of what they have on the roster and how they are going to turn things around. Two teams that have struggled as much as they have Offensively clearly have Quarter Back concerns and the Bears and Texans are relying on young signal-callers to try and turn things around.

Justin Fields has either not been trusted or doesn't have the skill players that the Chicago Bears can rely upon, but he has amazingly thrown just 28 times this season. It becomes a harder number to understand when you think the Bears have been in big holes in both games played this season, although at least in Week 1 Justin Fields was playing in awful conditions that it made sense to avoid risking too many throws.

Week 3 should be a chance to get back on track in the throwing department for the young Quarter Back who has plenty of questions to answer to convince the fans that he can be a franchise player for them at the most important position. Justin Fields will be facing a Houston Secondary which has been lit up by Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, although both of those players are significantly better than Justin Fields right now and play with stronger Receivers than the Bears have, and I do think the Bears Offensive Line can put the Quarter Back in a good position to make plays.

David Montgomery has been the one light in the otherwise darkness of the Chicago Offense and he has run the ball effectively while the Bears have been able to use their full playbook. He should be able to give the Bears a chance to play out of third and manageable spots, while Fields is also a capable runner and can set Chicago up for their best Offensive showing of the young season so far.

Being in third and manageable also means a slightly cleaner pocket to operate from and I do think Chicago can have their successes in this game.

Davis Mills and the Houston Texans will feel the same after a couple of tough games for their own Offensive unit, although the play-calling on this side of the ball has left something to be desired. The Houston Texans will know they can upgrade the Quarter Back position, but Mills has kept them competitive even in losing outings and he may feel he is going to get more support in this game than he has in the previous two as the Texans have produced just 266 yards of Offense per outing.

There looks to be one or two key injuries in the Chicago Linebacker unit that could only aid Houston further- while the Texans have struggled to run the ball this season, I expect more touches for Dameon Pierce and he should be able to at least rip off one or two big gains against what has been a weak Chicago Defensive Line.

Again, you do have to point out the Bears have faced two strong ground teams in the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers, especially compared with the Texans who are averaging just 78 yards per game on the ground. I expect Pierce to have a better outing, but the pressure will remain on Davis Mills and he will not be in an easy position if his team cannot push him in front of the chains in this one.

The Bears still have a decent playmaking Secondary and they also bring a pretty effective pass rush onto the field so will feel they can get to Davis Mills whenever he is any obvious passing down and distance. That could be the key to the outcome of the game with the home team perhaps more likely to establish the run with any consistency to help out their struggling Quarter Back.

In the main, non-Conference games are clearly those that are potentially overlooked, but that can't be the case in this one with the Bears and Texans looking to bounce back from Week 2 defeats. Lovie Smith is the Head Coach of the Texans and would love to get one over the team he once guided to the Super Bowl, but the Chicago Bears look to have enough of an edge to be worthy of being backed.

Chicago covered in all three home games as the favourite last season and Davis Mills is 2-4 against the spread when playing as the road underdog. A more consistent running game looks to give the home team the advantage and I think that shows up here, while Justin Fields can show off some of his passing skills in better home conditions than in the win over the 49ers in Week 1.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: There are injuries scattered throughout the Defensive unit and they are playing in hot conditions on a short week, but the Buffalo Bills (2-0) are still considerable favourites to beat AFC East rivals and fellow undefeated Miami Dolphins (2-0) in Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season.

In recent years the Bills have become the dominant team in the Division at the expense of the New England Patriots and they have really been able to get the better of the Miami Dolphins regularly.

In response, the Dolphins have signed some big name players and also done pretty well in the NFL Draft and this is a 'prove it' kind of moment for Miami having beaten the aforementioned Patriots and Baltimore Ravens to open the season. Offensively they have looked confident with Tua Tagovailoa behind Center and Tyreek Hill offering a huge Receiving threat to open things up further for Jaylen Waddle and I do think Miami will scheme up a way to take advantage of some of the injuries the Bills have suffered Defensively.

Mike McDaniel will know that the Dolphins have to run the ball better in general if they are going to be a genuine threat this season, and he may get his wish in this one with the Bills down a couple of key Defensive Linemen. Even short passes/laterals are a way to push the Dolphins in front of the chains, which will be key to take away the Bills pass rush and also make sure that Tua Tagovailoa is able to hit his Receivers down the field.

The Quarter Back will have a strong game against a Bills team who are also missing players like Micah Hyde in the Secondary, while more injuries in the Defensive Back areas leave them vulnerable to Hill and Waddle. I expect Tua Tagovailoa will be able to get the ball to them and the Miami Dolphins may look a very big price by the time the Fourth Quarter rolls around.

However, the injuries on the Defensive unit should not take away any of the potency of the Buffalo Bills Offensively having crushed the defending Champions Los Angeles Rams on the road before hammering the Tennessee Titans at home on Monday Night Football. Josh Allen continues to progress into arguably the top Quarter Back in the NFL and he has the playmakers to hurt the Miami Dolphins who are coming in off a day where they allowed the Baltimore Ravens to do plenty of damage with the ball in their hands.

There looks to be more balance to the Bills Offensively with the Running Backs hitting their gaps hard, but they will lean on Josh Allen who has continued to break down Defenses in front of him. Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis could both miss out, but Stefon Diggs continues to find a strong chemistry with Josh Allen and the Quarter Back is playing at a level where he can elevate other Receivers too.

As strong as the Miami start has been and as excited the fans are, you cannot ignore the fact that it has been possible to establish the run against them. That opens up play-action as a real threat for the Buffalo Bills, while the Dolphins Secondary is a touch banged up and not expected to shut down the Bills Receivers, even with the bumps and bruises this unit are dealing with.

With little pass rush pressure being generated by the Dolphins, Josh Allen should have time to pick apart the Secondary as he has done through the first three weeks and Buffalo may continue their dominant run against this AFC East rival.

The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in this series, while they are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven games when playing an undefeated opponent in the first quarter of the season. Buffalo are 8-3-2 against the spread in their last thirteen games against Divisional rivals and I do think they will have heard enough about what Miami are doing to want to make a statement on the road.

Miami will come in with confidence, but put in a lot to overcome the Baltimore Ravens last week and may not be able to keep up in a track meet on the scoreboard. I love what this team has done early, but this could be an eye-opener for fans dreaming of the Super Bowl and the Buffalo Bills can win and cover the spread in Week 3.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets Pick: The Super Bowl hangover is a real concern, although falling 0-2 behind is not likely to be the death knell it once was for teams in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) can ill-afford to fall further below 0.500 with a big Thursday Night Football appearance coming up and they are a big favourite to avoid dropping to another defeat.

They are facing the New York Jets (1-1) who had an epic comeback in Week 2 to beat the Cleveland Browns and that will give the Jets fans something to hold onto. Head Coach Robert Saleh led the Jets to a 4-13 record in 2021, but he will be given time to turn the franchise around.

He will be waiting for Zach Wilson to return, which is fast approaching, but for now the keys will remain in the hands of Joe Flacco who helped the Jets score twice in the final two minutes to erase 13 point deficit and beat the Browns last week.

It may be down to Joe Flacco again with the Jets unlikely to have the success on the ground to keep themselves in third and manageable spots. The Cincinnati Defensive Line has made it tough to move the ball against them on the ground and keeping the veteran in obvious passing downs and distances will feel like a big win for the Bengals in this almost 'must win' game.

Joe Flacco has some talent in the Receiving corps and that has helped him produce some solid outings, although the challenge against the Cincinnati Bengals Secondary looks tougher than the previous two games. He benefited from some wild plays at the end of Week 2, while the Baltimore Secondary looks really vulnerable, and I do think Joe Flacco is going to have a much tougher time being able to hit big plays against this opponent.

The Jets may have to lean on the Defensive unit, which has largely played pretty well in the second season under this Head Coach. Joe Mixon may have an opportunity to get on track after a mixed start to 2022 and it is important for Cincinnati to try and get their run game going in order to offer Joe Burrow more protection and time to hit his star playmakers down the field.

After an opening weekend in which Joe Burrow was Sacked over and over again by the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Quarter Back will at least be happier that he is facing a Jets team who have not really been able to get the pass rush ramped up. With Joe Mixon expected to keep the team in third and manageable spots, Joe Burrow can find the time to make more plays in his bid to get his team onto the winning side of the column for the first time since the AFC Championship Game in January.

Joe Burrow will have to be aware of how well the Jets are competing and he has also been guilty of being a touch too loose with the ball with Interceptions hurting the Bengals. This New York Secondary have been able to turn the ball over through the air, but I do think Cincinnati are going to have enough to find the Offensive output to win this one.

The Jets might be a touch over-rated having fought back from an almost impossible deficit to beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and I just can't imagine the Bengals having their season on life support just three games after playing the Super Bowl. They should have beaten the Steelers and the Bengals are going to be wondering how they lost to the Dallas Cowboys, but a more focused start should be in the offing knowing how close they are to blowing their season in September.

Joe Burrow has not really been used to losing back to back games, but he is 5-0 against the spread in that spot and I do believe the Quarter Back can make enough plays to help the Bengals secure a win that is wide enough to cover this mark.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Two Quarter Backs will be leading these NFC East teams with plenty of familiarity about one another.

Carson Wentz was once the starter for the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0), but he was displaced by Jalen Hurts and has now moved for a second time to end up with the Washington Commanders (1-1) after a season with the Indianapolis Colts. There will be frustration with the way his career ended with the Eagles, but Carson Wentz has something to prove in his own right as he looks to rebuild with the Commanders.

Interceptions have continued to blight Carson Wentz- there are times he looks more than a serviceable starter, but those turnovers come at bad times and the confidence has never really recovered from losing his job to Hurts in Philadelphia. We have seen more of that with Washington as Wentz has put together some strong moments in the first two games of the season, but Interceptions remain the issue and he is now going to be throwing into a very tough Philadelphia Secondary.

There is a chance the Commanders can get their run game going in this one, although they will need the Eagles Defensive Line to be a lot less focused than they were on Monday Night Football when clamping down on Dalvin Cook. The Detroit Lions were able to establish the run against the Eagles, but the Lions Offensive Line look pretty strong and certainly much more comfortable than the Washington Offensive Line.

It will be difficult for Carson Wentz to have the same successes as his first two games against a quality Eagles Secondary, especially as he could be facing some pass rush pressure and this looks a very good chance for Philadelphia to make a statement within the Division.

I expect it is also a chance for Jalen Hurts to continue to highlight his progression as a starting Quarter Back- at one point there were real questions as to whether he will be good enough, but the Eagles have proven right to stick with Hurts, who also benefits from playing behind this Offensive Line.

Philadelphia have a dual-threat Quarter Back, but Miles Sanders is finally looking like he can fulfil his potential at Running Back and the Eagles have been picking up huge chunks of yards on the ground. The Eagles Offensive Line can put the Commanders under pressure considering how poor Washington have been in protecting against the run and I will look for the Eagles to dominate at the line of scrimmage to set up their entire Offensive successes on the day.

Jalen Hurts can also make plays with his legs, but having AJ Brown in the line up has been huge for the Quarter Back and his passing numbers have been very strong early in the season. With the team likely to be set up in third and manageable for much of the day, I think the Eagles will see Jalen Hurts continue that early season form by exploiting the holes in the Commanders Secondary.

So far this season, Jalen Hurts has largely looked after the ball when throwing too and I think he will remind the Philadelphia fans why he took over as the starter from Carson Wentz.

Playing on a short week is far from ideal, while Washington were beaten here but covered the spread with a similar number of points against Philadelphia in January at the end of last season. Carson Wentz has shown he could produce a backdoor cover in this one, but I think the Eagles have the control at the line of scrimmage that could see them score enough points to have pulled clear in the second half.

There is a concern that Jalen Hurts has not really helped his team as a road favourite, but they should have covered at the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and I think the Quarter Back can make the plays along with Miles Sanders and AJ Brown to do enough to cover here.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denver Broncos + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)