Another College Football Week has come in under the radar.
It was a mixed start for the Picks and I expect to have a fuller thread in Week 4 when Conference play gets underway.
Oklahoma Sooners @ Nebraska Cornhuskers Pick: There was a time that a matchup between the Oklahoma Sooners (2-0) and the Nebraska Cornhuskers (1-2) would have had National Championship repercussions, but those look a long time ago now. Back then, the Sooners and Cornhuskers were big time rivals meeting in the same Conference, but they are only meeting for the second time in twelve years having agreed to a home and home series.
Last season the Sooners won narrowly at home in Week 3 as a 22 point favourite, while their Offensive streak of scoring at least 27 points per game was also snapped on the day. However, they did come away with the win and Oklahoma are pretty strong road favourites in Lincoln in Week 3 of the 2022 season.
Some of that may be down to the continued ways that Nebraska can lose close games, while it may also have something to do with the fact that the Cornhuskers fired Head Coach Scott Frost following the latest loss. They were 23 point favourites last week, but Nebraska were beaten outright by the Georgia Southern Eagles who are under a first year Head Coach following a 3-9 2021 season finish.
To say it is disappointing is an understatement and Scott Frost leaves Nebraska having produced a losing record in a little over four seasons as Head Coach. There was a real hope that Scott Frost would turn around what has been a tough few seasons for Nebraska, but this is a school that has become used to losing and changing that culture will be a challenge for any Head Coach coming in.
For now Mickey Joseph will be tasked with guiding Nebraska going forward as they prepare for this game before heading into a Bye Week. Any new Head Coach is likely to be appointed at the end of the season so Joseph could stake his claim by helping the Cornhuskers turn around their 2022 season and have a strong run as they look to at least become Bowl eligible for the first time since 2016.
Nebraska have been competitive under Scott Frost and you have to believe that will be the case- pride alone should mean they play as hard as possible in front of the home fans, while having a National Championship contender like Oklahoma in town can only help. This is a Cornhuskers team that is experienced, although they only scored 16 points in the loss in Norman last season and are have to deal with a pretty good looking Oklahoma Defensive unit.
We don't really know how good the Sooners are on that side of the ball from wins over UTEP and Kent State, but Brent Venables is a strong Defensive mind and the Head Coach is pleased with the players that have been left over. They have generated a strong pass rush early and Venables will feel his Defensive Line can at least get to Casey Thompson, the Quarter Back who will be known to the Sooners fans from his time with the Texas Longhorns.
For all of the negatives around Nebraska, they have feel able to move the ball Offensively and I do think they can have some success doing that here, although ultimately that Oklahoma pass rush could prove significant. Establishing the run will be the key for the Cornhuskers, and even limited success on the ground could open up some passing lanes for Casey Thompson.
I do think the Cornhuskers will have some joy, but I also think the Oklahoma Sooners are looking very comfortable Offensively and have to be very keen on attacking the Nebraska Defensive unit which has struggled to make stops. Dillon Gabriel is leading the way at Quarter Back for the Sooners, but he has been well supported by the Offensive Line which has been able to open up strong running lanes.
I expect the Sooners to have more consistent success on the ground compared with the Cornhuskers and that should make things that much more comfortable for Dillon Gabriel. He is not likely to be dealing with nearly the same kind of pass rush pressure as his opposite number and I believe that will be the key to the outcome of the game.
There is no doubting that the Sooners are being asked to cover a big spread, but I think their Offensive power gives them a chance to do that and for Brent Venables to produce a statement win before Big 12 action gets underway.
Last season will have reminded the Sooners to not take this game lightly, while Nebraska have not been the best home underdog in recent years as they are continued to be rated like they are still a team looking to achieve former glories. Under Lincoln Riley, Oklahoma were a very poor road favourite to back, but I think Brent Venables can help turn the page on that era by helping the team shut things down Defensively and make the plays to cover.
Ohio Bobcats @ Iowa State Cyclones Pick: Matt Campbell has done a very fine job as Head Coach of the Iowa State Cyclones (2-0), but a win over rivals Iowa was missing from the CV... Until Week 2 of the 2022 season.
In a season where many believe the Cyclones are going to have a step back having lost so many key players from the recent, successful seasons, Matt Campbell has already shown that he can get the new crop to buy into his methods. Even in a 10-7 upset win over the Hawkeyes, Iowa State completely dominated the yardage produced on the day and that should stand them in good stead going forward as they look to make it six winning seasons in a row.
Going through the Big 12 schedule is always going to be a challenge, and it does make games like this one plenty important for the Cyclones if they want to reach the six wins needed to play in another Bowl Game. That is not being disrespectful to the Ohio Bobcats (1-1), but the defeat in Week 2 in one-sided fashion to the Penn State Nittany Lions underlines the gap that needs to be bridged to those teams from the Power 5 Conferences.
I did say the Bobcats are experienced last week and they are in the second year with a Head Coach so should be more comfortable with the methods that Tim Albin wants to employ, but ultimately there is going to be a talent gap that is harder to manage. The Ohio Head Coach believes his team are in for a tougher test than last week when losing to Penn State as he considers the Iowa State Cyclones better Defensively and on the Offensive Line, but Iowa State have to be careful of not reading too many positive headlines and make sure they are focused.
In reality the spot is far from ideal for the Cyclones with this 'easy' game being played between the rivalry game against the Iowa Hawkeyes and the start of Big 12 play, but Matt Campbell will be looking for his players to post a win that will put them halfway to being Bowl eligible.
As long as there isn't the distraction of the spot situation, the Cyclones should have plenty of success with the ball in hands and they can move the chains both on the ground and through the air. Establishing the run just takes the pressure away from Hunter Dekkers at Quarter Back and I do think the young player can then show off some of the talent that earned him the starting role to take over from Brock Purdy.
The Cyclones Offensive Line has been strong when it comes to pass protection early in the season and I do think they can have plenty of success moving the ball.
It will then give the Defensive unit an opportunity to take over the game and just show that the new faces are able to take on the standards set by the Iowa State Defenses of the last two seasons. They have already shown that is possible early in the 2022 season, and the feeling is that the Iowa State Defensive Line can make the Bobcats one-dimensional by clamping down on the run.
If they build the lead, it will give the Cyclones a chance to try and ramp up the pass rush, which has been lacking early in the season, especially with the Secondary holding up as they have been. The Bobcats will make some plays as they did against Penn State, but it could be a long day if the Cyclones are performing Offensively and I do think the home team can cover this number.
Iowa State have not been at their best in non-Conference games, while backing up wins has proven to be a difficulty for them. As mentioned a couple of times, the spot is not ideal, but they are facing an Ohio team who are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight non-Conference games and who are 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen following a loss.
Last season they were blown out at Louisiana and Northwestern and a 36 point defeat at the Penn State Nittany Lions suggest things have yet to really change for the Bobcats. While I expect this game to be closer, the Cyclones are good enough to record a win by at least 20 points with some late Defensive plays helping them cover this line.
MY PICKS: Oklahoma Sooners - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 18.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
BYU Cougars + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Maryland Terrapins - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans + 3.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Miami Hurricanes + 6 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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