Much like last season, my opening NFL Picks will be a thread focusing on the selections as the 2022 season gets underway.
Next week will be a fuller thread with my thoughts on the season as well my predictions for the Super Bowl.
Week 1 Picks can be read below.
Buffalo Bills @ Los Angeles Rams Pick: The defending Super Bowl Champions are going to open up the 2022 season in the traditional Thursday Night Football spot.
The NFL would have been very keen to have a big game on deck to get the season underway and they could not have asked for a much better one than the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Buffalo Bills. It is a non-Conference affair, but these are two teams that will be expecting to push for the Super Bowl crown in February and I am sure there will be plenty out there that may feel the NFL season will close with the same match up that will be played on Thursday.
Like most teams in the NFL, some changes will have been made in the off-season, but Sean McVay has to be very pleased with the majority of his World Champions returning for another shot at the big time. The decision to bring in Matthew Stafford to lead the Offensive unit proved to be the masterstroke the Rams had been searching for and the Quarter Back looks to be over his elbow issues ahead of the new season.
It is a concerning issue that Stafford has been dealing with and the real test will come in a live game and when he takes his first big hit from the Buffalo pass rushers.
However, if Matthew Stafford is as healthy as most expect, he should be able to pick up from where he left off and that should be leading the Rams efficiently from the Quarter Back position. Robert Woods may be gone, but Allen Robinson has been signed to play opposite Cooper Kupp and I think they will be able to move the chains through the air against a Buffalo Secondary that will be missing Tre'Davious White, although Jordan Poyer is expected to suit up.
Changes on the Defensive Line may have weakened the Bills a little bit more so the Rams could look to establish Cam Akers or Darrell Henderson, although Sean McVay's system is all about getting the Quarter Back comfortable. Matthew Stafford is massively experienced and I do think he is going to have a strong opening game for the Los Angeles Rams and score plenty of points.
The Rams are going to need plenty of points too when going up against the Buffalo Bills and this powerful Offensive unit that is as good as any in the NFL. Josh Allen continues to develop at Quarter Back and the Bills will still be kicking themselves for losing in the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs last season, especially as the Overtime loss in Kansas City came down to the toss of a coin.
As strong as the Bills are on the Offensive side of the ball, they are facing an elite Los Angeles Defensive unit and the first month of the season can see the Defensive side of the ball have a slight edge over the scoring players.
Aaron Donald has been persuaded to avoid retirement and Jalen Ramsey is still one of the elite Secondary players in the League and there is a feeling that the Rams can do enough to at least slow the Bills down somewhat.
That may be the difference in a tight and competitive game and I do think it is a surprise to see the Los Angeles Rams as the home underdog. Sean McVay has been a strong Head Coach at preparing his team for Week 1 and they have covered in each of the last five seasons on the opening weekend.
Take nothing away from Sean McDermott, who is also a very strong Head Coach that has his Buffalo team well prepared, but I do think the Rams are being underrated for the opening game of the NFL season. The Bills did win here two years ago in a very high-scoring game and they were the very slight favourite on that day, but I think the defending Champions will be looking to prove themselves as the underdog in this one and my feeling is that Matthew Stafford can just out-duel Josh Allen in the narrow upset.
I would love to have seen the spread hit the key number 3, but being given points with the Champs in their banner raising home opener seems too good to ignore, even if the public seems to be firmly in the Buffalo camp. The Bills are going to be very hard to beat for much of the regular season and I think they are a genuine Super Bowl contender, and Von Miller will want to remind his former team of his qualities, but the home team in these openers have tended to have a slight edge and I think that will be the case in Week 1 of the 2022 season.
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: If Tom Brady had remained in retirement instead of returning to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it would have been all change in the NFC South with all four teams having significant changes ahead of the 2022 season.
The Buccaneers may be the favourites in the Division with Brady leading the way, but the New Orleans Saints will remember being crowned Champions in the NFC South just two seasons ago. They have lost Sean Payton at Head Coach, which is going to hurt the New Orleans Saints, but Dennis Allen has experienced being at the helm in the NFL and I do think his time spent with the Saints should make the change a little more seamless.
It is still a big challenge for the New Orleans Saints who missed the PlayOffs for the first since 2016 when finishing with a 9-8 record. That was largely down to the uncertainty that came about when Drew Brees retired at Quarter Back, although Jameis Winston had played well enough to believe he was on the right track to lead to the Saints to the post-season before suffering a season ending ACL injury.
Jameis Winston has returned and looked pretty strong, while a huge boost for the entire New Orleans Offensive unit will be the expected return of Michael Thomas. He was one of the premier Wide Receivers in the NFL, but missed all of 2021 and could provide a boost for the Saints and the entire Offensive unit.
Throwing against the Atlanta Falcons won't be very easy, but I do think Jameis Winston can have a strong game targeting Alvin Kamara coming out of the backfield and Thomas when he finds room in the middle of the field. The Quarter Back is missing a key part of the Offensive Line, but I am not sure the Falcons will be able to generate enough pressure up front to worry Winston and he can move the chains pretty efficiently.
Despite the loss of Sean Payton, the Saints do look stronger than the Atlanta Falcons who finished with a 7-10 record last season, but who have decided to trade away long-term Quarter Back Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Marcus Mariota has not been a regular starter in the NFL in recent years, but he has been tasked with leading the Falcons while their Third Round Draft selection Desmond Ridder continues to develop behind the Quarter Back.
Dennis Allen may not have had the best of times as the Head Coach of the now Las Vegas Raiders, but he did do a strong job with the New Orleans Defensive unit in his time as Defensive Co-Ordinator here. His Saints team are expected to continue to be dominant on this side of the ball and they have an effective pass rush which can make the difference in this Divisional Game to open the 2022 season.
Games between the Saints and Falcons have tended to be competitive, but New Orleans have won on their last four visits here including in Week 18 last season. The Saints have covered on each of those occasions and they have regularly covered more often than not when set as the road favourite.
On the other side, the Atlanta Falcons went 0-4 against the spread as the home underdog with Arthur Smith as Head Coach and I do think Winston and the Saints can make the plays to cover this number.
San Francisco 49ers @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather looks to be the big equaliser on Sunday afternoon as Week 1 of the NFL gets underway, but I do think the San Francisco 49ers would have some questions to answer even in better conditions. A wet day will make it very difficult for Trey Lance to throw the ball at Quarter Back, especially with the lack of experience he has in leading the way.
The pressure will build on Trey Lance now that Jimmy Garoppolo has signed a contract to remain with the San Francisco 49ers in 2022. Most expected the Quarter Back to have been traded away, but his presence is a worry for Lance, especially as Jimmy Garoppolo has reached the Super Bowl with the 49ers and is coming off a season in which he guided San Francisco to twelve wins last time out.
A narrow loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams in the NFC Championship Game will have stung, and it was a surprise to see the 49ers decide to make the change at Quarter Back.
Trey Lance does not have ideal conditions to perform, but he can run the ball much more efficiently than Jimmy Garoppolo and that is likely going to be a key in Week 1. The Quarter Back also benefits from facing the Chicago Bears who look to be in the midst of a massive rebuild and the Monsters of the Midway are not nearly as intimidating as some of the units that have operated for the Bears in recent years.
George Kittle could be missing, but Trey Lance has been given plenty of talent to get the best out of him and I do think the 49ers schemes should see them move the ball pretty well, even in the wet and rainy conditions expected.
Things are likely to be much tougher for Justin Fields as the Chicago Bears Quarter Back considering how little support he has around him on both the Offensive and Defensive units. The Offensive Line has issues and I expect those to be highlighted by the pressure the 49ers are expected to generate up front, while San Francisco's Defensive Line should be much stouter against the run if Fields decides to use his legs.
A new Coaching staff going up against Kyle Shanahan and his staff looks a mismatch to open the season, while Justin Fields has a lot to prove in tough circumstances considering he finished with a 3-7 record against the spread in his rookie season. The Bears were also 0-5 against the spread as the home underdog in 2021, while the 49ers are 6-4 against the spread as the road favourite in the last couple of seasons.
This is a huge spread for someone as inexperienced as Trey Lance to cover, but I do think he is surrounded by a lot more support than Justin Fields in Chicago. With a team that can use short passing to get the ball into the hands of their talented skill players, Trey Lance can also take advantage of the weaker Chicago Defensive front and can use his legs to move the 49ers into a position to cover.
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Jets Pick: There was some controversy around Quarter Back Zach Wilson in the off-season, but that was mainly about his off-field preferences and the New York Jets are very confident in their second year signal caller. However, we won't know how much Wilson has improved for a few weeks as another injury means more time on the sidelines and the ball will be given to veteran Joe Flacco.
He is best known for being the Quarter Back to win the last of the Baltimore Ravens Super Bowls, but that game was played at the end of the 2012 season and Joe Flacco is little more than a backup these days. Motivation will not be difficult to find against his former team, but Joe Flacco will be the first to remind the Jets how well Baltimore are prepared under John Harbaugh who is looking for a bounce back season.
A disappointing 8-9 season was down to injuries, but the Baltimore Ravens have gone in hard in the Draft and Lamar Jackson will also be playing with a point to prove. A contract extension has not been agreed, but Jackson has made sure he has bet on himself and he is going to be determined to have a much better season than 2021 when injury and lack of consistency let him down.
The Interceptions were a big problem for Lamar Jackson in 2021, but he had led the Ravens to an 8-5 record before missing the final four games with injury. Better health for his Offensive Line will be encouraging, and they look to have made some solid decisions in the Draft to expect the Baltimore Ravens to be challenging in the AFC North.
The New York Jets look to be improved too, but I think it is a big test to shut down Lamar Jackson and the Ravens Offensively and I do think the game is going to come down to how many points Joe Flacco can help the Jets produce.
I do think the Draft has helped the Jets improve Offensively, but you have to believe that the Ravens will have a perfect plan to deal with Joe Flacco. That should see Baltimore slow down the Jets for long enough to give Lamar Jackson the chance to not only win, but to cover on the road.
The Jets finished last season with a 3-5 record against the spread as the home underdog.
Baltimore also have a strong Week 1 record with John Harbaugh showing he can be tough to beat when given time to prepare, and the Ravens are 4-1 against the spread in the last five between these teams.
My only real concern is that the Baltimore Ravens have not been a great road favourite to back in recent years, but I think they can bring in a solid game plan to close out Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson can begin what I believe will be a big season for him.
Denver Broncos @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Trading away your starting Quarter Back who has won a Super Bowl for your franchise and taken you to another is always going to be a difficult moment for any team and their fans. That is the situation for the Seattle Seahawks going into the 2022 season and many consider them amongst the worst teams in the NFL, although Head Coach Pete Carroll is going to want to extract everything he can get from the players on the roster.
The fans may get a clear reminder of the decision the team has made in the off-season immediately as they are facing a returning Russell Wilson with his new team, the Denver Broncos. After searching for a Peyton Manning replacement ever since he won the Super Bowl and rode off into the sunset, the Broncos finally have a player that can compete with Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr and Justin Herbert in the AFC West.
Make no mistake, it is a huge challenge for Russell Wilson and the veteran will still have something to prove as some believe his best days may be behind him. At least with the Broncos he has a Defensive unit that can stand up if needed, while Wilson goes into a very good situation when you think of the Receiving corps at his disposal.
The Denver Offensive Line has a couple of injuries to deal with, but this is a much stronger Line than the one that Russell Wilson was playing behind in Seattle and I do think that will help the veteran in what is a bounce back year for him and the Broncos. Recent years have been difficult for Denver behind some dodgy Quarter Back play and they have not had a winning record since 2016, the season following Peyton Manning's retirement when Denver missed the PlayOffs behind a 9-7 record.
That will mean there is some pressure on Russell Wilson considering what Denver gave away to get him and it will be an emotional opener for the Quarter Back at the Stadium he called home ever since moving into the NFL. On the other hand, Wilson should be well accustomed to the kind of noise levels that the 12th Man will make in Seattle and a transitioning team looks one he should be able to exploit.
The Seahawks finished with a 7-10 record in the NFC West last season, a Division that provided both teams for the NFC Championship Game. They have lost Bobby Wagner on the Defensive side of the ball, the last remaining Legion of Boom member, and this looks a tough season all around for Pete Carroll and his team.
In recent seasons, the Defensive numbers have been in decline and I am not sure the Seahawks will be able to reverse that, while Russell Wilson is going to know a lot about the team and their tendencies, which makes it easier for him to find the holes in the Secondary. The Defensive Line may still be solid, but Russell Wilson's movement may make it easier to establish the run for the Broncos and I do think the Wide Receivers in Denver win their battles.
So it will be up to Geno Smith to replace Russell Wilson and try and keep up with him on the scoreboard.
The former New York Jet has been the backup to Wilson in Seattle and started three games last season so the transition should not be an issue, although there is a massive drop off when it comes to levels. The Quarter Back will need the Seahawks to control the game with their running attack, but at some point he is going to have to make plays against the Denver Secondary and I think that is where the mistakes may come.
Geno Smith's Offensive Line may struggle in pass protection and I don't think he is as strong on the run as Russell Wilson has proved himself to be and it could lead to the Seahawks fans having to suffer through a Monday Night Football loss at home.
I have to respect the fact that Pete Carroll is a quality Head Coach and his record as an underdog is very impressive- the Seahawks are 16-7 against the spread in their last twenty-three games when catching points. They have also been an impressive home underdog on Monday Night Football, but I can't shake the factor of Russell Wilson's return and him knowing exactly what he is likely to see from a weaker Seattle team than the one he was a part of.
Perhaps emotions means Russell Wilson does not want to crush the Seahawks, but I am not sure the end of that partnership was as amicable as some might think and he has helped cover the spread plenty in this Stadium before. It is a big number, but I think Seattle may struggle to keep up in this one and a couple of turnovers can help Denver seal an opening win on the road.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Rams + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 1 Point @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)
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