While one or two teams have already played a big game within their Conferences, for most teams those games begin in Week 4 and we will begin to see some separation of those hoping to crash the four team PlayOff and those who are going to fall away and perhaps target Bowl Games, and play spoiler for others, at best.
The four team PlayOff system has encouraged schools to take on tougher non-Conference games rather than the blowout warm ups we have tended to see, but the reality is that the unbeaten season is no longer the be all and end all of the final shake up. Of course if we have four unbeaten Power 5 Conference teams they are very likely to make the post-season and try and win a National Championship, but in reality a one loss team is far from done.
Winning Conferences remains a very important part of being invited into the final four, although the SEC has a leg up on most others and the losing team in the SEC Championship Game has a big opportunity to earn a PlayOff spot as long as they have not suffered a defeat in the regular season before that Championship defeat.
Picking a final four in late September is a foolish task, but you have to imagine the Georgia Bulldogs and Alabama Crimson Tide would both make it having competed for the National Championship last season. If they are both unbeaten in the regular season, they will meet in the SEC Championship Game in December and even a losing team would have a chance of another National Championship run.
However, this season there seems a number of teams who have genuine hopes of winning a Power 5 Conference as an unbeaten Champion and that could hurt the loser of the SEC Championship Game if the season shapes up as it has the potential to do on paper.
For example, the Oklahoma Sooners, Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Clemson Tigers and USC Trojans have all looked very impressive. None of those teams have easy runs to remain unbeaten (of course Ohio State and Michigan play in the same Division, never mind Conference), but all will feel they have laid the foundations for what could be a special season and I am really excited about this 2022 College Football season to say the least.
The first couple of weeks for the College Football Picks have been a little up and down, but it is early in what is a long, long season and there is plenty of time to get things motoring in the right direction.
Conference Games are starting this week and there are plenty of good games on the Week 4 slate.
Florida Gators @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: Even fans of the Tennessee Volunteers (3-0) must have forgotten the time when they were amongst the very top teams in the SEC, but there is an excitement building in Knoxville. Head Coach Josh Heupel is only in his second year at the helm here, but is already well on the way to at least matching the seven wins earned in his first season, although expectations are much greater than that.
It is never going to be easy to sit in the same Division as the National Champions, but the Tennessee Volunteers have opened the season playing well enough to be considered one of the main rivals to the Georgia Bulldogs. The schedule in Conference play is going to provide a significant test for the Head Coach and the Volunteers over the weeks ahead, but they have an opportunity to go into the Bye Week unbeaten before big games against the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide from the SEC West.
In Week 4 the concentration is on their own Division as the Volunteers prepare to host the Florida Gators (2-1), a school that has gotten the better of Tennessee on an almost annual basis. In fact, the Gators have won sixteen of the last seventeen games between these SEC East rivals to dominate the series, although this time around the Volunteers are significant favourites to come out on top.
After beating the Utah Utes to open the season, Florida have been undone in their first Conference game against the Kentucky Wildcats and barely held on for a win over in-State rivals the USF Bulls last week. Pressure is building on Anthony Richardson after consecutive games where he has underperformed and all talk of him being compared with the likes of Cam Newton are on hold.
This is going to be a challenging game for Anthony Richardson and the Florida Offensive unit as they don't seem to match up that well with the Tennessee Volunteers who have seven starters back on the Defensive side of the ball. The Volunteers have not really been able to reach the standards set in the 2019 season in the last two years, but the experience of playing in this system has led to three strong performances to open this season and that will give them confidence after seeing the Gators looking a little toothless.
Much depends on the battle at the line of scrimmage where Florida's Offensive Line will be looking to set the table by establishing the run. Running the ball against the Tennessee Volunteers will be a challenge though and the key for the home team will be to force Anthony Richardson to become a passer from third and long spots, a situation that will not play to the strengths of the Quarter Back.
There have been one or two opportunities to throw against this Volunteers Secondary, but the numbers may be skewed by the fact that teams have had to throw to keep up. While Anthony Richardson has largely had a clean pocket to operate from, he has not been consistent and I would not be surprised if there are one or two Interceptions up for grabs for the home team.
Extra possessions could really see Tennessee turn the screw against a Divisional rival that has made this series embarrassingly one-sided in recent times.
The Volunteers will certainly feel they can have plenty of success whenever they do have the ball in the hands of an Offensive unit that has eight starters back from the team almost doubled the points per game from 2020 (21 points per game) to 2021 (39 points per game). Key skill players returned and Hendon Hooker is much more experienced at Quarter Back now he is in the second year of this system and the early results have been really encouraging for the Volunteers.
Throwing against the non-Conference opponents that have been beaten is a different test than facing a SEC Secondary, but the Volunteers can make things easier for Hooker at Quarter Back by establishing the run. They are up against a Gators Defensive Line which has struggled early this season and I do think Tennessee will be able to get their Offensive Line chugging in run blocking, while also making them more effective in pass blocking from third and short situations.
I can't ignore how one-sided this series has been in recent years, but this Tennessee team looks like they are on the up and up and they can make a statement against the Florida Gators. Make no mistake that this is a big spread in a SEC Divisional Game, but the Volunteers look to have a superior edge on both sides of the ball and I think Head Coach Josh Heupel will know how important it is for his team to really announce themselves on a big stage.
With a Bye Week coming up, Tennessee can leave it all out on the field and I think they will as they use the Secondary to create a couple of turnovers and give their potent Offense the chance to pull away in the second half. Anthony Richardson will be playing with a point to prove at Quarter Back for the Florida Gators and he can be dangerous as a dual-threat, but I will look for the Volunteers to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that can ultimately make the difference for them.
While Florida have a strong record against Tennessee, they have failed to cover in their last eight road games overall and I think that trend continues at Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers are 5-2 against the spread as a home favourite under their current Head Coach and I will back Tennessee to win this one and cover the big mark set.
Wisconsin Badgers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: They may have dominated the yardage on the day, but the Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) will be frustrated by the home loss to the Washington State Cougars in Week 2 of the College Football season. Head Coach Paul Chryst has only led the Badgers to a single double digit winning season in the last four and that defeat has put him under a bit of pressure even if it came in a non-Conference setting.
They have failed to make it to the Big Ten Championship Game since winning ten games in the 2019 season and that has to be the aim in 2022 considering some of the struggles of the other teams in the West Division. This is easily the weaker of the two Divisions within the Conference, but Wisconsin have a tough schedule to negotiate beginning with this trip to Columbus.
Wisconsin will be facing the Ohio State Buckeyes (3-0) who have made yet another strong start to a season where National Championship aspirations are very high. Ryan Day has continued to lead the team to double digit winning seasons after the 11-2 record in 2021 and only the shortened 2020 season has been the outlier as Ohio State have won at least ten games in every season since 2012.
However, winning the National Championship has eluded this proud school since 2014 and Ryan Day will feel that anything less than that will always be something detractors could hold over him. Losing the Big Ten Championship last season will have hurt the Buckeyes, who had not failed to win their Conference since 2016, and especially as Ohio State were finally beaten by the Michigan Wolverines.
Ryan Day is unlikely to be sitting on a hot seat, but reaching the PlayOffs has to be the very minimum of aims for the Ohio State Buckeyes in 2022 and that brings pressure. His team have started like they have something to prove too and there is plenty of experience on both sides of the ball which makes the Buckeyes very dangerous.
A win over Notre Dame to open the season perhaps does not look as impressive as it did after Week 1, but Ohio State have crushed overmatched non-Conference opponents in the last two weeks. This is a much tougher test for them Offensively compared with facing Arkansas State and Toledo, but CJ Stroud and the Offensive unit will believe they can push the Wisconsin Badgers.
As with many games, the line of scrimmage will be very important- Ohio State have been able to run the ball efficiently this season, but the Badgers Defensive Line prides itself on shutting down the run and forcing Offensives to become one-dimensional against them.
It is never easy to run the ball against Wisconsin, but I do think the Buckeyes Offensive Line is a real strength for them this season and can give their Quarter Back a chance by putting the team in third and manageable situations. This will be key to give CJ Stroud to hit his playmakers in the Wisconsin Secondary and ease the Badgers pass rush, which has been able to get after the Quarter Back in their early games, although the Buckeyes Offensive Line have provided clean pockets for Stroud when he has stepped back to throw.
Ohio State will be able to move the ball, even if not as efficiently as they did against the Toledo Rockets in their last game, and that means Wisconsin are going to have to find the Offensive plays to stay with their hosts.
The Badgers have crushed a couple of overmatched opponents with their Offensive output, but there has to be a concern that they managed just 14 points against the Washington State Cougars, a team not nearly as strong as Ohio State's Defensive unit are.
Like their opponent, the Buckeyes Defensive Line have been stout against the run and I do think they may not have the same respect for the Wisconsin Quarter Back as the other way around. Graham Mertz is plenty experienced, but the Quarter Back has a tendency to make poor decisions when throwing in the Secondary and that is underlined by the fact he had more Interceptions than Touchdown passes in 2021.
You simply do not want to get too far behind if you are the Wisconsin Badgers as Graham Mertz will be throwing against an elite Ohio State Secondary. Turnovers have not really come about just yet, but the Buckeyes are not giving away too much through the air and I do think the focus will be to shut down the run and make Mertz beat them.
Ultimately this feels like it is going to be a game that sees the difference in levels between the two Quarter Backs prove to be a pivotal factor in the outcome of the game. Where CJ Stroud could make one or two big time throws to keep the chains moving, the worry about Graham Mertz is that he may have a back-breaking Interception and it could be the reason the Ohio State Buckeyes are able to pull away and eventually cover what is a massive line, all things considered.
The Badgers have not been a very good road underdog to back in recent times and they are 1-3 against the spread in their last four in that situation. Ryan Day's Ohio State have not always been the best home favourite to back, but I expect them to be really focused on a team many consider to be the best in the Big Ten West and they have beaten Wisconsin eight times in a row, while the Buckeyes are also 5-0-1 against the spread in their last six hosting the Badgers.
Sharp money looks to be moving this spread further in the direction of the favourite and I think the Ohio State Buckeyes will find a way to cover a huge number.
Kansas State Wildcats @ Oklahoma Sooners Pick: There will have been a real sense of disappointment in the Kansas State Wildcats (2-1) locker room after the defeat to Tulane, but there will be some feeling that they were looking past an opponent as a big favourite and thinking ahead to the start of Big 12 Conference play.
That is no excuse for the Wildcats, but I certainly think we are going to see a much better effort all around in Week 4 of the College Football season.
They will need a much better effort if they are going to beat the Oklahoma Sooners (3-0) in Norman and the Wildcats will be confident as they have become something of a bogey team for one of the National Championship favourites. There is always quite a heavy turnover of players out of Oklahoma between seasons as players decide to move to the NFL, but the school will be well aware of how tough Kansas State are within this Conference, whether you play them at home or on the road.
A first year Head Coach is taking over a team with five starters returning on both sides of the ball, but the Oklahoma Sooners usually have strong recruiting years and the crushing of the Nebraska Cornhuskers on the road shows how good this team can be. Head Coach Brent Venables won't be getting carried away, but he has to like what he has seen from Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back and from a Defensive unit which has looked imperious in dismissing three non-Conference opponents.
However, Venables will also be well aware of the increase in challenge that comes with playing in the Big 12 and much of their Offensive success depends on the Offensive Line establishing the run. The Oklahoma Sooners are going to have a tough test of their credentials against the Kansas State Defensive unit which has seven returning starters and who have proven to be a difficult team to attack either through the air or on the ground.
I do think the Sooners have the power on the line of scrimmage to set Dillon Gabriel up in third and manageable spots, and that is going to be really important for them. Running the ball opens up play-action down the field and I do think Dillon Gabriel will be able to attack what may be one of the better Secondaries in the Big 12 and perhaps even the nation of College Football.
Offensively the Sooners look strong, but it could be the Defensive unit that takes them back into the College Football PlayOff and perhaps even win a National Championship. There are likely to be bigger tests to come compared with what they have faced early in the 2022 season, but the Sooners have been strong on the Defensive Line and shutting down the Kansas State running game is going to give them a real edge in this game.
It won't be easy as the Wildcats bring in an experienced Offensive Line who will feel they can force their will on any team they face with the numbers already produced this season. Doing that against the Sooners is a tougher test, but Kansas State have to find a way to put their Quarter Back in a promising position by getting in front of the chains.
Having Adrian Martinez behind Center helps, but the Wildcats will need the Quarter Back to show off a little more with his arm if they are going to give Oklahoma something to think about. He proved he can do that when playing Quarter Back for the Nebraska Cornhuskers against Oklahoma in 2021, although Adrian Martinez is never too far away from an Interception and will have to be a little wary of the Sooners Secondary and their ability to turn the ball over.
I do think Kansas State can have success and they can be competitive, but my feeling is that the Oklahoma Sooners will be too consistent on both sides of the ball and eventually that can lead to a turnover or two to help them pull away.
The Wildcats do have a strong recent record when facing the Sooners, although the home team is 5-1 against the spread in the last six in the series.
Over the last decade, Kansas State have been a strong road underdog to back, but in Chris Klieman's time as Head Coach they are just 6-5 against the spread in this spot. Oklahoma continue to be a productive home favourite to back and they can stay focused to beat a team that have given them problems in recent years as the National Championship talk ramps up around Norman.
USC Trojans @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: Not many fans in Oklahoma will be impressed with the way Lincoln Riley not only left their Sooners to become the new Head Coach of the USC Trojans (3-0), but the fact he managed to bring a couple of huge names with him in the transfer portal would have really stung. I would personally love to see a Trojans-Sooners game in the post-season, preferably in the College Football PlayOff, but there is a long road to run between Week 4 and the final selections.
All the USC Trojans can do is win the Pac-12 Conference and they may need to do that as an unbeaten team to be invited in, barring other big schools falling short of expectations. Lincoln Riley has become a Coach that has regularly guided teams to the PlayOff and he will know that the focus has to be on performing at their maximum in each passing week and the Trojans have looked strong.
The Trojans already have one Conference win under their belt, but this is another big test for them as they face the Oregon State Beavers (3-0) on the road. Jonathan Smith guided the Beavers to their first winning season in eight years when leading them to a 7-6 2021 season and the start made this season comes behind a team that is loaded with experience.
Over the next two weeks we will learn plenty about Oregon State as they face the top two teams from the Pac-12 South and it looks like Smith has made sure the cupboard is far from bare despite losing some key Offensive skill players. The powerful Offensive Line will feel they can open holes for any Running Back and the Beavers have produced some big numbers on the ground and I expect them to have success against the USC Defensive Line allowing 4.8 yards per carry.
Staying in front of the chains will mean the Beavers are not going to be dealing with the fierce USC pass rush, while Chance Nolan continues to produce strong numbers from the Quarter Back position. As long as the Beavers remain in third and manageable spots, Nolan and company should be able to make the throws against the Secondary to keep the chains moving and try and stay with the Trojans on the scoreboard.
And it will be about staying with the USC Offensive unit who are averaging over 50 points per game and who have crushed the Stanford Cardinal on the road. Bringing in Caleb Williams at Quarter Back from the Oklahoma Sooners has been huge for the Trojans and he has been very good at looking after the ball as well as producing the big numbers.
Caleb Williams has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Beavers Secondary, although there are holes to exploit too with what has to be the best Receiving corps in the Pac-12. The options for the Quarter Back are very dangerous and it may mean teams are bring in more Defensive Backs to slow down the Trojans, but that is not an easy decision when you think of how well the USC Offensive Line is playing.
The expectation is that the Trojans can continue dominating at the line of scrimmage and they should be able to pound the ball with a lot of success against this Beavers Defensive Line.
Both teams should have success moving the ball, but you have to have a little more belief in the Trojans who have the talent to win a National Championship. USC are also playing with revenge after being beaten by 18 points at home by the Oregon State Beavers last season and this is a team who are 7-0 against the spread when playing a Conference opponent with revenge, as long as that opponent is coming in off a straight up win in which they covered the spread.
It is the situation here in Corvallis, although Oregon State have to be respected for going 8-1 against the spread in their last nine at home.
In some ways this line feels like a trap, but I do think the USC Trojans are the superior team with the Offensive talent they have.
A blow out is unlikely, but the line is below a key number and I think that gives USC the opportunity to win a second road game in the Pac-12 and also cover. The Trojans have been good to me early in this season and I think they can be backed here to win a high-scoring game in which their Secondary makes one more play than the Oregon State one.
MY PICKS: Tennessee Volunteers - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 19.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
USC Trojans - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17 Points @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 16.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi Rebels - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks - 23.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 13 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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