Things have been a little unforgiving this week and that means my first truly proper thread for the 2022 NFL season will have to wait until Week 3.
Instead you can see my thoughts on the Week 2 Picks below with another Thursday Night Football start.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The AFC West looks to be a Division loaded with plenty of talent, but the top two teams could easily be facing off on Thursday Night Football. Both the Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) and Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) made sure they were not distracted by this early meeting on a short week as they came through with wins in Week 1 and the victor will have sole control of the early Divisional lead.
Last season will still sting the Los Angeles Chargers who missed out on the PlayOffs in a Week 18 defeat to the Las Vegas Raiders, but they did open up with a win over the Raiders for a slight redemption.
Ambitions are much greater in the second year under Head Coach Brandon Staley despite losing three of their last four games in 2021 to finish with a 9-8 record and missing the post-season. After back to back seasons finishing up with a losing record, the winning record in 2021 will be seen as a solid foundation from which to build, while Justin Herbert has shown himself to be one of the stronger young Quarter Backs playing in the NFL.
He will be without Keenan Allen on Thursday Night Football, but the Chargers showed last week that there are plenty of other Offensive weapons that can make plays for their Quarter Back. I would also expect Mike Williams to have more of an impact in the game, while Justin Herbert will be confident playing behind this Offensive Line as he looks to find the time to attack the Kansas City Secondary.
It will help if the Chargers can move the ball a little more effectively on the ground and I do think Los Angeles can establish the run in this one having seen the Arizona Cardinals produce 4.7 yards per carry against the Kansas City Chiefs Defensive Line in Week 1. Austin Ekeler is also an important pass catcher out of the backfield and I do think the Chargers can continue matching up as well with the Chiefs as they did last season when averaging 29 points per game.
Of course the expectation is that the Chargers will have to score plenty of points to have a chance to upset the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium, especially after watching Patrick Mahomes crush the Arizona Defensive unit in Week 1. Patrick Mahomes may have lost Tyreek Hill in the off-season, but there are plenty of talented players for him to target instead and spreading the ball around makes Kansas City that much harder to contain.
JC Jackson is a big miss for the Chargers in the Secondary and I do think Patrick Mahomes will have plenty of successes when it comes to moving the chains.
He will also have that much more time to hurt the Defensive Backs if Kansas City are able to stick with the run game having seen the Chargers give up some big yards on the ground last week. In terms of the overall number given up to the Las Vegas Raiders, the Chargers Defensive Line played well, but the Raiders were moving the ball at almost 5 yards per carry and that is an issue for the road team.
If the Chiefs can stay committed to the run, I do think their Quarter Back can have another big game after the strong Week 1 performance. You can understand why people are keen to back the Chiefs at home on the short week, but there may be one or two kicking problems with Harrison Butker set to miss out.
The Kicker has been very efficient, but Kansas City may have to take a few more risks to keep the chains moving rather than settling for long Field Goals. Ultimately I am not sure that is a big concern in a game where the Chiefs won't want to kick Field Goals in what could be a high-scoring game and I do think both teams will be able to move the ball efficiently for much of the night.
Games between the Chargers and Chiefs have been very competitive in the last couple of seasons as Los Angeles have looked to match up better with the best team in the AFC West. Last season they split the two games and that is the second year in a row thaw has happened, while three of the four games were settled by six or fewer points.
The Chargers were beaten in Overtime in their home game, but have won two in a row at Arrowhead Stadium and I think there is enough Offensive output from Los Angeles to do the same here with more than a Field Goal worth of points.
Los Angeles are now 3-0-1 against the spread in their last four visits to the Kansas City Chiefs, while the road team have been dominated in the Divisional Games between these two AFC West rivals. Both teams have some strong trends going in their favour, but a standout trend is that the Chargers have gone 16-4-2 against the spread in their last twenty-two games as the road underdog in Divisional Games.
Opposing Patrick Mahomes as a home favourite is never an easy proposition, but Justin Herbert can match him here and I think the Chargers look the play with the points.
Miami Dolphins @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both the Miami Dolphins (1-0) and Baltimore Ravens (1-0) beat AFC East opponents in Week 1 and they will be looking to maintain unbeaten starts to the season in what is an important year for both teams and players on both squads.
Tua Tagovailoa and Lamar Jackson are the Quarter Back of the Dolphins and Ravens respectively and this is a big season for the pair- Tagovailoa is still trying to prove that he can be the franchise Quarter Back that Miami have been searching for ever since Dan Marino retired, while Lamar Jackson has refused to sign the contract extension with the Baltimore Ravens and is looking to prove himself as worthy of the money he is demanding, either with the Ravens or with another team in the NFL.
He did what he needed to do in the win over the New York Jets in Week 1, but this is expected to be a much tougher challenge for Jackson. The problem for the Ravens and their Quarter Back is that there are a lot of skill players who will earn the respect of a solid Miami Defensive unit, while the Offensive Line struggled to open the running lanes last week.
The expectation is that the Ravens may struggle to establish the run in this one too against the Miami Defensive Line which played well against the Patriots last time out, but they will have to be wary of Lamar Jackson and his ability on the ground.
It does help that Jackson is trying to prove himself as a passer, but Miami will likely have a scout on him when the pocket breaks down. They can do that with a full confidence in the Secondary and matching up with the Receiving corps that the Baltimore Ravens are going to bring out on the field and the Dolphins will believe they can play well enough on this side of the ball to give their Quarter Back and Offensive unit the chance to earn the upset on the road.
Running the ball was an issue for the Dolphins last week, which is disappointing considering they had been playing with the lead for much of the game against the Patriots, but new Head Coach Mike McDaniel will use short passes in place of a running game at any point. That is likely to be the approach in this one and that means additional pressure on Tua Tagovailoa to build on what was largely a positive Week 1 performance.
He has had an instant rapport with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle continues to show that he is progressing exactly how the Dolphins would have hoped.
I expect Tua Tagovailoa to be able to have plenty of success in this one, although he has to be aware of the Baltimore pass rush with some issues on the Miami Offensive Line. Throwing the ball quickly to the Backs coming out of the backfield will be key to slow some of those pass rushers down, while Tua Tagovailoa has to make sure he avoids the one or two poor throws that have blighted him throughout his career.
I do think he can do enough to help the Miami Dolphins in this game and having more than a Field Goal worth of points looks appealing. The Ravens had crushed Miami three times between 2016 and 2019, but the Dolphins beat them pretty easily at home last season and I think they can back that up with a competitive performance on Week 2 of the 2022 season.
Miami have not always played well after facing the New England Patriots, but they are 5-2-1 against the spread in their last eight as the road underdog. The Dolphins ended 2021 in strong form, which led to a surprising decision to fire Brian Flores as Head Coach, but the players look to have already signed on for the evolution under Mike McDaniel and I do think they can do enough to keep up on the scoreboard and potentially even earn the upset.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Tom Brady arrived an immediately made the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) amongst the favourites to win the Super Bowl- they managed that in his first season before a narrow loss to the eventual Super Bowl Champions last season and Tom Brady is clearly motivated enough to return for 'unfinished business'.
We will know much more about the Buccaneers when injuries clear up, but they do look a short price to win this game in Week 2 with so many players limited or absent completely.
They are also facing a Divisional rival who have gotten the better of Tampa Bay in Brady's time here and the New Orleans Saints (1-0) will be hoping the second half momentum from the win over Atlanta in Week 1 can carry over to this game.
Jameis Winston had a couple of issues out of the win over the Falcons, but the New Orleans starting Quarter Back is set to play. A bigger worry for the Saints may be the status of Alvin Kamara, but Winston's performance in Week 1 will be encouraging, while Dennis Allen will be boosted by the win in his first game in charge as Head Coach of New Orleans.
The Saints will have some issues moving the ball on the ground with or without Kamara, who is trending towards being ruled out, but the bigger blow is losing his pass-catching ability coming out of the backfield. It will be a loss for Jameis Winston, but I expect the Quarter Back to have a bit more success throwing the ball at the Tampa Bay Secondary compared with Dak Prescott in Week 1, although the Offensive Line has something to prove.
Much may also come down to how the New Orleans Saints can continue to match up with Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Defensive unit. This is the side of the ball which has helped them win the last four regular season games against the Buccaneers, although Tampa Bay do have a PlayOff win over New Orleans, and I do think the injuries on the Buccaneers Offensive Line will help the Saints pressure Brady for much of the game.
Last week the Saints did struggle to stop the run so Leonard Fournette could have another strong showing, and that could be the key for Tampa Bay if they are going to cover this number as the road favourite. Keeping Brady and company in third and manageable will negate any Offensive Line worries in the pass protection and it will mean Brady is in a strong position to keep the chains moving throughout this Week 2 game.
However, any third and long spots will be tough to convert for Tampa Bay who have big injuries to deal with in the Receiving corps too. Chris Godwin has been ruled out, while Mike Evans has been limited in practice all week, and there is no Rob Gronkowski to make up the numbers.
It just feels like it will be a close and competitive game and New Orleans record against the Buccaneers is very difficult to ignore.
New Orleans are 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games between these Divisional rivals.
The Saints have also been a very strong underdog to back in recent years, although those were under Sean Payton rather than Dennis Allen. Backing against Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers doesn't feel that good, but I do think New Orleans are capable of winning this one outright and I think they are worthy of backing with the points.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants Pick: The revenge game did not go the way Baker Mayfield would have wanted after the Carolina Panthers (0-1) went down to a narrow defeat to the Cleveland Browns. The Quarter Back did not play as well as he would have liked, but he has a chance of bouncing back in Week 2 and prove he can be a viable starter in the NFL.
His time with the Browns was largely successful, but there was always a feeling that Baker Mayfield would not be able to take Cleveland to the next level and a parting of the ways was obvious as soon as Deshaun Watson was signed from the Houston Texans.
There is an opportunity for Baker Mayfield as he heads on the road to face the New York Giants (1-0) who are playing with a huge upset victory secured. New Head Coach Brian Daboll will have been very pleased with the character shown by his players in coming from behind to beat the Tennessee Titans on the road, but he has made it clear that it is about backing up that victory.
If they can do that, the Giants have a chance to build some momentum with games against the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears to come, but no one associated with the team can afford to look too far ahead. Losing records in the NFL have become the norm for the two teams playing out of Gotham, but the New York Giants have big ambitions.
Daniel Jones is the other Quarter Back on the field and he has as much to prove as Baker Mayfield, perhaps even more so.
He did not have a very good game passing the ball against the Tennessee Titans, but Daniel Jones was not helped by the Offensive Line who were much happier running the ball than in pass protection. The Giants gave up a lot of Sacks in their Week 1 win over the Titans, but Saquon Barkley had arguably his best game since suffering a big injury a couple of years ago and I do think the Giants will lean on their Running Back again.
I do think Barkley can have a big game and I think that also helps Daniel Jones who can make plays with his legs and help move the chains on the ground. The Quarter Back should be able to make plays from third and manageable spots, but Interceptions are a worry for Jones and the Giants fans so keeping this game contained to lean on the run is the key for New York.
After the tight loss last week, Carolina will be looking for more from Christian McCaffrey who struggled to help the team get things going on the ground. This may be another week where they have issues running the ball after the New York Giants played pretty well up front against the Titans and Derrick Henry, and this only puts more pressure on Baker Mayfield.
Like Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield will be hoping for more protection from his Offensive Line having been Sacked a number of times by the Cleveland Browns, but he may also benefit from playing a Giants team that have could struggle to generate a pass rush. Injuries to key players that were expected to provide that pressure have hurt New York, while they also have a couple of starters missing from the Secondary, which has to give Baker Mayfield plenty of encouragement to throw downfield.
Carolina have talented players in the Wide Receiver positions, but I am not always convinced about Mayfield's accuracy and that could be an issue for the Panthers throughout the season.
I do think both teams will be able to move the chains and have success Offensively, but my lean is with the New York Giants with the team being at home and that despite the poor record that they have had against the Carolina Panthers in recent seasons.
The Giants did beat the Carolina Panthers at home by a comfortable margin last season, while New York are 4-1 against the spread in their last five at home against this NFC rival.
New York have some really poor trends going against them, but the Panthers are just 3-13 against the spread in their last sixteen games and they are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four as the underdog.
This is not the biggest spread, but the Giants are hard to trust as a favourite with Daniel Jones being asked to cover. It is a concern, but I do think they can run the ball effectively for a second week in a row and Daniel Jones did help New York beat Carolina by 22 points here last season and I will look for him to set his team up for another victory in Week 2 of the 2022 campaign.
Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: There would have been plenty of motivation inside the locker room and coming from the stands when the Seattle Seahawks (1-0) prepared to face the Denver Broncos and former Quarter Back Russell Wilson. The win on Monday Night Football means the Seahawks are the only team in the NFC West who have a win on the board, but they are going to have to be a lot better than they were in Week 1 if they are going to keep winning games.
Make no mistake, Denver shot themselves in the foot every time they looked to be about to take control of the game in Seattle.
The Seahawks may feel they could benefit from another team making errors in this one though as they visit the San Francisco 49ers (0-1) who somehow managed to lose to the Chicago Bears in a rainstorm last week. Trey Lance did not have a very good game as the new starting Quarter Back, but the 49ers will still be unsure how they managed to lose a game they had been dominating before Justin Fields made one or two big time throws that led to Touchdowns.
We have to expect a better reaction from the 49ers than we saw in Week 1 and I honestly do think the weather was a real hindrance for Trey Lance. Kyle Shanahan is likely to be Coaching to put his Quarter Back in a stronger position and I expect San Francisco to be able to run the ball very well, even with Elijah Mitchell ruled out with an injury.
Jeff Wilson Jr will come in as the starter and he could have a big game against the Seattle Defensive Line who had struggled to contain Denver. With a dual-threat Quarter Back in Trey Lance, I do think the 49ers can run the ball efficiently and that is going to make life easier for Lance who will also be throwing in much more familiar conditions than he would have felt he was playing in last week.
With rookies and younger players in the Secondary and now Jamal Adams, Trey Lance should be able to have a much better game than he did in Week 1 when many questioned whether the San Francisco 49ers had made the right decision with their Quarter Back. Short passes should get him going early in this one as Kyle Shanahan will scheme up to help his Quarter Back and players like Deebo Samuel can make plenty of plays from those short passes with San Francisco getting blockers out in front.
The question for Seattle is whether they can continue to stiffen up in the Red Zone and force turnovers or for teams to kick Field Goals rather than push into the End Zone for Touchdowns. It is something they have been able to do for a while and last week it was the key for Seattle, while also keeping the pressure from Geno Smith and the Offense.
There were some very good moments for Geno Smith last week and he was clearly very excited to hear his name being serenaded from the stands, but Pete Carroll and the Seahawks will know they need more Offensively. Having Kenneth Walker III ready to play his first game will be important as they look to establish the run against the tough looking San Francisco Defensive Line, but it does feel like the Seahawks are going to be reliant on the Geno Smith arm.
More rookies on this side of the ball impressed last week as Geno Smith was protected by young Right and Left Tackles, but I expect the Seahawks Offensive Line to be challenged by the 49ers pass rush. That will especially be the case if the road team is playing from third and long spots and Geno Smith will have to improve his own accuracy in order to even keep this game close.
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are strong Receiving options, but I am not sure Geno Smith will have a lot more consistency than we saw on Monday Night Football.
Barring another couple of goal-line stands that lead to turnovers or poor clock management from the Head Coach, Seattle are likely to struggle to keep up with the 49ers. This may be a Divisional Game, but there is no doubt how much emotion was used to get the better of former Quarter Back Russell Wilson returning to Seattle with his new team and that emotion can be difficult to manage on the climbdown.
The Seahawks do have a strong recent record at San Francisco, but it does feel the road team are much weaker than they have been in those visits.
Seattle are just 4-12 against the spread in their last sixteen following a straight up win, while the 49ers have bounced back from losses to go 4-1 against the spread in their last five in that spot.
The 49ers are also 13-1 against the spread in their last fourteen games following a straight up loss on the road as a favourite and I do think they show much better in warmer, drier conditions. San Francisco have not always been a trustworthy home favourite as they tend to be overrated knowing the public will want to back them, but I think they will be more focused following a defeat and I think Trey Lance makes much more positive headlines.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: In the coming years we may see a change in this statistic, but teams that fall into 0-2 holes to open the season have struggled to make the PlayOffs in the NFL. That may change now we have eighteen game regular seasons, but I don't think either the Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) or the Dallas Cowboys (0-1) will want to test the theory out in 2022.
Disappointing home losses were the outcome of Week 1 for these two teams and there is plenty of work for them to do ahead of this one.
The Bengals will certainly want to see their Offensive Line come together and offer Joe Burrow a lot more protection than they gave him in the defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers, while the Dallas Cowboys have to go with a backup Quarter Back in Cooper Rush after Dak Prescott broke his hand and has been ruled out for a number of games.
Cooper Rush has experience filling in at Quarter Back from last season when he led the Cowboys to a win over the Minnesota Vikings, but things have changed in Dallas and the whole Offensive unit looks to have taken a backwards step since that game in Week 8 of the 2021 season. Players like Amari Cooper are no longer with the Cowboys, while injuries means Dallas are without Michael Gallup and James Washington right now.
It wasn't that long ago that Dallas may have leaned on the Offensive Line and Ezekiel Elliot at Running Back, but I think Elliot is already on the downward path in his career as a starter. The Cowboys may struggle to establish the run against this Bengals Defensive Line who made a positive start containing the run, and they may knuckle down and look to control the line of scrimmage to force Cooper Rush to beat them with his arm.
I do expect Rush to have more time than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed for Dak Prescott, but the Bengals Secondary has to be respected and it looks to be a big challenge for Cooper Rush and the Dallas Cowboys in a second home game in succession.
I am also expecting Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals to have some issues, although the second half performance against the Pittsburgh Steelers was much more positive than their opener. The big question will be how much work the Offensive Line have gotten in this week to improve their protection of their franchise Quarter Back and to give him time to dissect what looks a vulnerable Dallas Secondary.
It can only help if Joe Mixon can run the ball a little stronger and keep the team in third and manageable spots, and I am looking for the Bengals to use the momentum of their second half in Week 1 to carry into this one.
Tee Higgins is also set to be available and that should help Joe Burrow as another option opposite Ja'Marr Chase and I do think the loss last week should only have focused the Bengals who won't overlook the injury hit Cowboys.
If they had found a way to win the game in Overtime against the Steelers, there could be an argument that Cincinnati would have perhaps not been so focused on this non-Conference opponent. However, the defeat last week makes this a much more important game and the Bengals look to have a clear edge on both sides of the ball and I do think they can pull away and cover this big number.
The Bengals are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine following a straight up loss and they have covered in their last five on the road.
Dallas were beaten by a big margin in their first game, but they are just 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a double digit loss and I do think the Cincinnati Bengals can make the big plays behind Joe Burrow to win this one.
MY PICKS: Los Angeles Chargers + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
New York Giants - 1.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
San Francisco 49ers - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 10 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
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