These days Canelo Alvarez operates at the Super-Middleweight and Light-Heavyweight limits and that has meant Gennady Golovkin has had to accept this third fight at 168 pounds.
Canelo Alvarez vs Gennady Golovkin III
There has been controversy attached to the first two fights between these Middleweight Champions.
My personal scorecards had Gennady Golovkin winning the first fight (which was eventually ruled a Draw), but I did have Canelo Alvarez sneaking the second fight (which he was awarded in a Majority Decision), although I can understand those who believe the Kazakhstani legend won both.
It is the Adelaide Byrd card that has led to the spin of Canelo Alvarez not deserving either win, and I do think it was an awful piece of judging that should have had her fired on the spot and never to interfere in another fighter's career again. However, all five other cards have been either 114/114 (twice), 115/113 (twice) or 113/115 and those do indicate how closely these two have been matched.
It is incredibly unfortunate that Gennady Golovkin is likely going to have live with never earning a win over Canelo Alvarez even if he deserved to have one on his resume. At 40 years old and moving up in weight for the first time, I truly do not see how Golovkin can turn back the hands of time and win this one.
The heaviest he has ever weighed going into a fight is 163 pounds, but this is five pounds higher and Canelo Alvarez has grown into the Super-Middleweight limit effectively. His experience of being strong at this weight is going to give him a further edge, even more than simply being the 'A Fighter' and the younger legs, and I think there will be very little controversy.
Some people are built to fight others and I do think Gennady Golovkin will be willing to give his everything to turn this in his favour, but he looked like a man on the permanent decline when last season him beat Ryoto Murata back in April. He was touched up far too many times by an opponent who is not nearly as skilled or competent as Canelo Alvarez and I think the bigger question is whether the latter can find a way to get to the Stoppage.
Breaking down Gennady Golovkin will be far from easy, but there have been times in recent fights where it has felt like opponents have gotten to him. A strong puncher like Canelo Alvarez who is looking to bounce back from an upset loss to Dmitry Bivol is going to test the Golovkin gas tank more than most and I do think he can put his punches together and force the referee to step in.
I love Gennady Golovkin and I think it is a real shame he did not get the fights he deserved at his peak, but I am also very realistic in saying that he is no longer at that level. Like Joe Frazier against Muhammad Ali in Manila. I think we will see Gennady Golovkin potentially have to be told the fight is over by the corner, even in an era where we no longer see the Fifteen Rounds for the biggest bouts rather than the Twelve Rounds we now get.
Even if the corner keep him out there, Canelo Alvarez has shown he can punch hard enough at this weight to break down an opponent. I expect the Mexican to make a fast start and hurt Gennady Golovkin early before beginning to pace things out for a very strong finish as he puts an exclamation point on the end of the rivalry.
The odds against quotes for a Decision win for Canelo are pretty appealing, but I will have a smaller interest in the 168 Undisputed Champion to find the finish in the second half of the fight.
We have a pretty stacked undercard from the 'PPV is dead, but here's a PPV you can pay extra for' crew at DAZN.
Austin Williams and Diego Pacheco should both be able to win and both inside the distance.
Ali Akhmedov is another who can win on the undercard as he continues to rebuild his career, although Gabe Rosado is an able veteran who should be good enough to escape becoming the latest Stoppage defeat the Kazakhstan fighter has produced. With veteran fit, Rosado can stay out of danger in the latter Rounds, even in a losing effort.
It won't ever be easy to do that against a big hitter, but Gabe Rosado has shown he knows his way around the ring and can keep Akhmedov honest enough to reach the cards.
The main undercard bout features Jesse Rodriguez who has really sparked his career over the last nine months with big wins as he has moved up to the Super Flyweight Division. I think he is being positioned for a big time crack at the winner of the Juan Francisco Estrada-Roman Gonzalez bout to take place later this year and I think he will showcase more punching power in his bout with Israel Gonzalez.
The latter cannot be underestimated having gone the distance with Chocolatito, but I think this will be a fun fight and he will not be hard to find.
After watching the continued improvement of Jesse Rodriguez, I do think he will break down Israel Gonzalez and can find a second half Stoppage.
MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Ali Akhmedov to Win Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.62 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jesse Rodriguez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.00 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Boxing 2022: 28-47, + 13.67 Units (135 Units Staked, + 10.13% Yield)
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