After a losing Week 1, Week 2 proved to be stronger for the NFL Picks, although it could have been much better if not for a couple of disappointing endings to games.
That is the way it can go, but it is never a bad thing to say you're 'up' after a couple of weeks of regular season action and there is hopefully some momentum to take into Week 3.
Some early season thoughts before we get into the Week 3 Picks.
The Miami Dolphins spent big in the off-season and this was always going to be an important season for Tua Tagovailoa regardless as he looks to prove he can be the franchise Quarter Back for the Fins.
He cannot really complain about the talent that has been placed around him and the big outing in Week 2 is highly encouraging for the fans.
However, I do think the Dolphins have faced two relatively kind opponents and in Week 3 we are going to learn a lot more about them as they host what some will believe to be the best team in the AFC. The Buffalo Bills are on a short week, but they have crushed the Los Angeles Rams and Tennessee Titans and Josh Allen might just have forced his way into the Number 1 spot when it comes to Ranking Quarter Backs in the NFL.
I still think the PlayOffs is the aim for the Dolphins and they have a Division from which they can make a real push towards the post-season, but the games with the Bills may prove to be a reminder of how far they have still got to go before being considered as genuine Super Bowl contenders.
The AFC may boil down to the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers when it is all said and done, but the NFC looks wide open and you can make a case for perhaps double that amount of teams to reach the Super Bowl. Two of the leading contenders, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Green Bay Packers, face off in Week 3, but teams like the San Francisco 49ers, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles are all going to believe they have the talent to win the Championship.
Right now, the 49ers look a very big price despite the injury to Trey Lance- keeping hold of Jimmy Garoppolo may prove to have been the key for San Francisco who only just felt short with Garoppolo under Center on a couple of occasions already.
The Cincinnati Bengals are perhaps suffering a hangover after unexpectedly reaching the Super Bowl before the narrow loss to the Los Angeles Rams and their 0-2 start is a concern. However, the AFC North looks a weak Division and I think the Bengals will begin their fightback in Week 3.
In saying that, I might change my mind completely about their chances if they are downed by the New York Jets as Divisional rivals the Cleveland Browns were last week.
In a long season, injuries are always going to play a big part and that is the same for Fantasy players.
My two teams running this season have been depleted badly already, although I don't have the same affection to those teams as in previous years having missed the Draft. That was a shame this time around and so the main concentration is with the NFL Picks.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: Two AFC North rivals meet on Thursday Night Football and they will be looking to bounce back from disappointing Week 2 efforts that saw both teams suffer a first loss of the season. The Cleveland Browns (1-1) were a touch fortunate in Week 1 with a late Field Goal getting them over the line at the Carolina Panthers, but I don't think anyone on the roster will be able to explain how they became the first team in twenty-one years to blow a thirteen point lead in the final two minutes of a game.
Amazingly the last team to do that was also the Cleveland Browns and now they have to try and pick themselves up on a short week for the visit of the Pittsburgh Steelers (1-1). After upsetting the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1, the Steelers were beaten at home by the New England Patriots last Sunday and there is a continued problem on the Offensive side of the ball in a new era under Mitchell Trubisky.
It feels like only a matter of time before Kenny Pickett takes over at Quarter Back, but the rookie won't have much success unless the Pittsburgh Offensive Line and the play-calling is much improved. This is certainly not the kind of conditions in which you want to throw in a young Quarter Back either with the high winds expected in Cleveland, which should make it much harder to complete passes through the air.
Matt Canada is under pressure to open up the playbook, while some of the comments from Mitchell Trubisky have to be concerning for the Offensive Co-Ordinator considering how many believed he was a better fit for Canada than Ben Roethlisberger had been.
The new Quarter Back has not really been targeting his playmakers down the field and the passing numbers may not improve in this Week 3 game with the wind expected. The Cleveland Browns are likely able to bring a significant amount of pass rush pressure on Mitchell Trubisky and taking away his time will aid them in becoming the latest team to shut down the Steelers Offensively.
Najee Harris has not really been able to get much going behind this Steelers Offensive Line and it is not a game in which he is expected to thrive considering how stout the Cleveland Defensive Line have been in closing down the run. That only increases the pressure on Mitchell Trubisky and I do think this is a tough match up for the Steelers on this side of the ball.
At least the Defensive unit are playing their part in trying to give the Pittsburgh Steelers an opportunity to win games and they have yet to allow more than 20 points in a game. The pressure that they have been able to generate on the passer has helped, but the Steelers may find it tougher to get to Jacoby Brissett in this game considering the protection the Browns Offensive Line has been offering the backup Quarter Back.
There are some holes in the Steelers Secondary that can be exposed by Brissett, and players like Amari Cooper will feel they can win their battles on the outside, especially if Cleveland's Offensive Line can give their Quarter Back the time he needs.
Ultimately the Offensive Line have a clearer job in the conditions and that is paving the way for some big yards on the ground- Nick Chubb may have accepted the blame for scoring a Touchdown that allowed the New York Jets to come back last week when he could have stopped short of the goal-line and allowed the Browns to run out the clock.
He did that in a win over Houston before, but perhaps felt even the Browns could not find a way to blow a double digit lead with the two minute warning behind them. Even still, Nick Chubb will come out looking to run hard and I do think he will have success moving the ball on the ground in tandem with Kareem Hunt, who will also be a threat coming out of the backfield as a pass catcher too.
This is not the Pittsburgh Steel Curtain of old when it comes to stopping the run so the expectation is that Nick Chubb/Kareem Hunt can put the Cleveland Browns in a strong position to keep the chains moving without leaning too much on Jacoby Brissett. The Quarter Back is also capable of moving the ball with his legs so the trio should be the key to the outcome of this Thursday Night Football game being played in strong winds.
I won't lie though, it is not easy to trust the Cleveland Browns who are 2-11 against the spread in Divisional Games under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski and who are just 5-11 against the spread in their sixteen home games under this Coach while being set as the favourite.
Those are pretty awful numbers, but Cleveland have tended to play well on the short week as the favourite and the feeling is that they can bounce back from an emotionally devastating defeat last Sunday.
Pittsburgh have a solid Head Coach in Mike Tomlin and he has helped the team bounce back from a loss by going 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in that spot. He continues to help the Steelers get the better of their Divisional rivals when it comes to the spread and the Steelers beat the Cincinnati Bengals outright in Week 1 on the road as a significant underdog.
Since 2018, the Steelers are also 19-8 against the spread as the dog, but playing as an underdog on Thursday Night Football has been more challenging and Pittsburgh are 0-2 against the spread in that spot in 2019 through 2021.
There is also the factor that Pittsburgh have dominated the recent series between these AFC North rivals, but this feels a game in which they may not have Offensive threat to stay with the Cleveland Browns. As I've said, it is not easy to back the Browns after watching the way they were beaten on Sunday, but they have looked the stronger of these two teams and the performances on Thursday Night Football have been good enough to back Kevin Stefanski in earning a rare cover over a Divisional rival.
Houston Texans @ Chicago Bears Pick: Picking bad teams to do good things is usually a quick path to the poor bank, but in this Week 3 game in the NFL, two bad teams are facing off against one another.
The Houston Texans (0-1-1) are chasing a first win of the season after losing to the Denver Broncos following a tie with the Indianapolis Colts, while there was no comeback for the Chicago Bears (1-1) in their loss to Divisional rivals the Green Bay Packers on Sunday Night Football.
At least the Bears have a win on the board, but both Chicago and Houston are in a transitional season and will be using the next several months to really take stock of what they have on the roster and how they are going to turn things around. Two teams that have struggled as much as they have Offensively clearly have Quarter Back concerns and the Bears and Texans are relying on young signal-callers to try and turn things around.
Justin Fields has either not been trusted or doesn't have the skill players that the Chicago Bears can rely upon, but he has amazingly thrown just 28 times this season. It becomes a harder number to understand when you think the Bears have been in big holes in both games played this season, although at least in Week 1 Justin Fields was playing in awful conditions that it made sense to avoid risking too many throws.
Week 3 should be a chance to get back on track in the throwing department for the young Quarter Back who has plenty of questions to answer to convince the fans that he can be a franchise player for them at the most important position. Justin Fields will be facing a Houston Secondary which has been lit up by Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson, although both of those players are significantly better than Justin Fields right now and play with stronger Receivers than the Bears have, and I do think the Bears Offensive Line can put the Quarter Back in a good position to make plays.
David Montgomery has been the one light in the otherwise darkness of the Chicago Offense and he has run the ball effectively while the Bears have been able to use their full playbook. He should be able to give the Bears a chance to play out of third and manageable spots, while Fields is also a capable runner and can set Chicago up for their best Offensive showing of the young season so far.
Being in third and manageable also means a slightly cleaner pocket to operate from and I do think Chicago can have their successes in this game.
Davis Mills and the Houston Texans will feel the same after a couple of tough games for their own Offensive unit, although the play-calling on this side of the ball has left something to be desired. The Houston Texans will know they can upgrade the Quarter Back position, but Mills has kept them competitive even in losing outings and he may feel he is going to get more support in this game than he has in the previous two as the Texans have produced just 266 yards of Offense per outing.
There looks to be one or two key injuries in the Chicago Linebacker unit that could only aid Houston further- while the Texans have struggled to run the ball this season, I expect more touches for Dameon Pierce and he should be able to at least rip off one or two big gains against what has been a weak Chicago Defensive Line.
Again, you do have to point out the Bears have faced two strong ground teams in the San Francisco 49ers and Green Bay Packers, especially compared with the Texans who are averaging just 78 yards per game on the ground. I expect Pierce to have a better outing, but the pressure will remain on Davis Mills and he will not be in an easy position if his team cannot push him in front of the chains in this one.
The Bears still have a decent playmaking Secondary and they also bring a pretty effective pass rush onto the field so will feel they can get to Davis Mills whenever he is any obvious passing down and distance. That could be the key to the outcome of the game with the home team perhaps more likely to establish the run with any consistency to help out their struggling Quarter Back.
In the main, non-Conference games are clearly those that are potentially overlooked, but that can't be the case in this one with the Bears and Texans looking to bounce back from Week 2 defeats. Lovie Smith is the Head Coach of the Texans and would love to get one over the team he once guided to the Super Bowl, but the Chicago Bears look to have enough of an edge to be worthy of being backed.
Chicago covered in all three home games as the favourite last season and Davis Mills is 2-4 against the spread when playing as the road underdog. A more consistent running game looks to give the home team the advantage and I think that shows up here, while Justin Fields can show off some of his passing skills in better home conditions than in the win over the 49ers in Week 1.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: There are injuries scattered throughout the Defensive unit and they are playing in hot conditions on a short week, but the Buffalo Bills (2-0) are still considerable favourites to beat AFC East rivals and fellow undefeated Miami Dolphins (2-0) in Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season.
In recent years the Bills have become the dominant team in the Division at the expense of the New England Patriots and they have really been able to get the better of the Miami Dolphins regularly.
In response, the Dolphins have signed some big name players and also done pretty well in the NFL Draft and this is a 'prove it' kind of moment for Miami having beaten the aforementioned Patriots and Baltimore Ravens to open the season. Offensively they have looked confident with Tua Tagovailoa behind Center and Tyreek Hill offering a huge Receiving threat to open things up further for Jaylen Waddle and I do think Miami will scheme up a way to take advantage of some of the injuries the Bills have suffered Defensively.
Mike McDaniel will know that the Dolphins have to run the ball better in general if they are going to be a genuine threat this season, and he may get his wish in this one with the Bills down a couple of key Defensive Linemen. Even short passes/laterals are a way to push the Dolphins in front of the chains, which will be key to take away the Bills pass rush and also make sure that Tua Tagovailoa is able to hit his Receivers down the field.
The Quarter Back will have a strong game against a Bills team who are also missing players like Micah Hyde in the Secondary, while more injuries in the Defensive Back areas leave them vulnerable to Hill and Waddle. I expect Tua Tagovailoa will be able to get the ball to them and the Miami Dolphins may look a very big price by the time the Fourth Quarter rolls around.
However, the injuries on the Defensive unit should not take away any of the potency of the Buffalo Bills Offensively having crushed the defending Champions Los Angeles Rams on the road before hammering the Tennessee Titans at home on Monday Night Football. Josh Allen continues to progress into arguably the top Quarter Back in the NFL and he has the playmakers to hurt the Miami Dolphins who are coming in off a day where they allowed the Baltimore Ravens to do plenty of damage with the ball in their hands.
There looks to be more balance to the Bills Offensively with the Running Backs hitting their gaps hard, but they will lean on Josh Allen who has continued to break down Defenses in front of him. Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis could both miss out, but Stefon Diggs continues to find a strong chemistry with Josh Allen and the Quarter Back is playing at a level where he can elevate other Receivers too.
As strong as the Miami start has been and as excited the fans are, you cannot ignore the fact that it has been possible to establish the run against them. That opens up play-action as a real threat for the Buffalo Bills, while the Dolphins Secondary is a touch banged up and not expected to shut down the Bills Receivers, even with the bumps and bruises this unit are dealing with.
With little pass rush pressure being generated by the Dolphins, Josh Allen should have time to pick apart the Secondary as he has done through the first three weeks and Buffalo may continue their dominant run against this AFC East rival.
The Bills are 3-1-1 against the spread in the last five in this series, while they are 10-1 against the spread in their last eleven games when playing an undefeated opponent in the first quarter of the season. Buffalo are 8-3-2 against the spread in their last thirteen games against Divisional rivals and I do think they will have heard enough about what Miami are doing to want to make a statement on the road.
Miami will come in with confidence, but put in a lot to overcome the Baltimore Ravens last week and may not be able to keep up in a track meet on the scoreboard. I love what this team has done early, but this could be an eye-opener for fans dreaming of the Super Bowl and the Buffalo Bills can win and cover the spread in Week 3.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets Pick: The Super Bowl hangover is a real concern, although falling 0-2 behind is not likely to be the death knell it once was for teams in the NFL. The Cincinnati Bengals (0-2) can ill-afford to fall further below 0.500 with a big Thursday Night Football appearance coming up and they are a big favourite to avoid dropping to another defeat.
They are facing the New York Jets (1-1) who had an epic comeback in Week 2 to beat the Cleveland Browns and that will give the Jets fans something to hold onto. Head Coach Robert Saleh led the Jets to a 4-13 record in 2021, but he will be given time to turn the franchise around.
He will be waiting for Zach Wilson to return, which is fast approaching, but for now the keys will remain in the hands of Joe Flacco who helped the Jets score twice in the final two minutes to erase 13 point deficit and beat the Browns last week.
It may be down to Joe Flacco again with the Jets unlikely to have the success on the ground to keep themselves in third and manageable spots. The Cincinnati Defensive Line has made it tough to move the ball against them on the ground and keeping the veteran in obvious passing downs and distances will feel like a big win for the Bengals in this almost 'must win' game.
Joe Flacco has some talent in the Receiving corps and that has helped him produce some solid outings, although the challenge against the Cincinnati Bengals Secondary looks tougher than the previous two games. He benefited from some wild plays at the end of Week 2, while the Baltimore Secondary looks really vulnerable, and I do think Joe Flacco is going to have a much tougher time being able to hit big plays against this opponent.
The Jets may have to lean on the Defensive unit, which has largely played pretty well in the second season under this Head Coach. Joe Mixon may have an opportunity to get on track after a mixed start to 2022 and it is important for Cincinnati to try and get their run game going in order to offer Joe Burrow more protection and time to hit his star playmakers down the field.
After an opening weekend in which Joe Burrow was Sacked over and over again by the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Quarter Back will at least be happier that he is facing a Jets team who have not really been able to get the pass rush ramped up. With Joe Mixon expected to keep the team in third and manageable spots, Joe Burrow can find the time to make more plays in his bid to get his team onto the winning side of the column for the first time since the AFC Championship Game in January.
Joe Burrow will have to be aware of how well the Jets are competing and he has also been guilty of being a touch too loose with the ball with Interceptions hurting the Bengals. This New York Secondary have been able to turn the ball over through the air, but I do think Cincinnati are going to have enough to find the Offensive output to win this one.
The Jets might be a touch over-rated having fought back from an almost impossible deficit to beat the Cleveland Browns in Week 2 and I just can't imagine the Bengals having their season on life support just three games after playing the Super Bowl. They should have beaten the Steelers and the Bengals are going to be wondering how they lost to the Dallas Cowboys, but a more focused start should be in the offing knowing how close they are to blowing their season in September.
Joe Burrow has not really been used to losing back to back games, but he is 5-0 against the spread in that spot and I do believe the Quarter Back can make enough plays to help the Bengals secure a win that is wide enough to cover this mark.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders Pick: Two Quarter Backs will be leading these NFC East teams with plenty of familiarity about one another.
Carson Wentz was once the starter for the Philadelphia Eagles (2-0), but he was displaced by Jalen Hurts and has now moved for a second time to end up with the Washington Commanders (1-1) after a season with the Indianapolis Colts. There will be frustration with the way his career ended with the Eagles, but Carson Wentz has something to prove in his own right as he looks to rebuild with the Commanders.
Interceptions have continued to blight Carson Wentz- there are times he looks more than a serviceable starter, but those turnovers come at bad times and the confidence has never really recovered from losing his job to Hurts in Philadelphia. We have seen more of that with Washington as Wentz has put together some strong moments in the first two games of the season, but Interceptions remain the issue and he is now going to be throwing into a very tough Philadelphia Secondary.
There is a chance the Commanders can get their run game going in this one, although they will need the Eagles Defensive Line to be a lot less focused than they were on Monday Night Football when clamping down on Dalvin Cook. The Detroit Lions were able to establish the run against the Eagles, but the Lions Offensive Line look pretty strong and certainly much more comfortable than the Washington Offensive Line.
It will be difficult for Carson Wentz to have the same successes as his first two games against a quality Eagles Secondary, especially as he could be facing some pass rush pressure and this looks a very good chance for Philadelphia to make a statement within the Division.
I expect it is also a chance for Jalen Hurts to continue to highlight his progression as a starting Quarter Back- at one point there were real questions as to whether he will be good enough, but the Eagles have proven right to stick with Hurts, who also benefits from playing behind this Offensive Line.
Philadelphia have a dual-threat Quarter Back, but Miles Sanders is finally looking like he can fulfil his potential at Running Back and the Eagles have been picking up huge chunks of yards on the ground. The Eagles Offensive Line can put the Commanders under pressure considering how poor Washington have been in protecting against the run and I will look for the Eagles to dominate at the line of scrimmage to set up their entire Offensive successes on the day.
Jalen Hurts can also make plays with his legs, but having AJ Brown in the line up has been huge for the Quarter Back and his passing numbers have been very strong early in the season. With the team likely to be set up in third and manageable for much of the day, I think the Eagles will see Jalen Hurts continue that early season form by exploiting the holes in the Commanders Secondary.
So far this season, Jalen Hurts has largely looked after the ball when throwing too and I think he will remind the Philadelphia fans why he took over as the starter from Carson Wentz.
Playing on a short week is far from ideal, while Washington were beaten here but covered the spread with a similar number of points against Philadelphia in January at the end of last season. Carson Wentz has shown he could produce a backdoor cover in this one, but I think the Eagles have the control at the line of scrimmage that could see them score enough points to have pulled clear in the second half.
There is a concern that Jalen Hurts has not really helped his team as a road favourite, but they should have covered at the Detroit Lions in Week 1 and I think the Quarter Back can make the plays along with Miles Sanders and AJ Brown to do enough to cover here.
MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Buffalo Bills - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
