After Week 5 is concluded, the majority of teams in the NFL will have played more than a quarter of the regular season and that will be a time to assess how well, or poorly, the opening games have gone.
Week 4 is the first of the Bye Weeks with the Kansas City Chiefs and Carolina Panthers having the earliest of rests possible and both are leading their respective Divisions, albeit with the former being at 4-0 and the latter at 2-2.
The NFC North looks like it could be one of the stronger Divisions out there with all four teams being at 0.500 or better, while the NFC West has three teams that look capable of deep runs into the post-season.
Injuries are already having an early impact on how teams feel about themselves and there has to be a real concern for the Philadelphia Eagles fans that the upper management have potentially given up on the season already. At 2-2 the Eagles players won't feel that way, but an unexpected retirement and then an unexpected trade has hurt the Offensive Line and Philadelphia have not been a very convincing 2-2 before that anyway.
The tag of being considered the most disappointing team of the season has to be shared by the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers who have both begun with four straight defeats after being considered Super Bowl contenders before Week 1 of the season. This is already a huge hold to climb out of and they are not helped by playing in strong Divisions.
You'd have to consider the Cleveland Browns as being the biggest surprise early in the season as they have bounced back from an opening Week beatdown to win three games in a row and top the AFC North. Desahun Watson looked to have played his best Football when a member of the Texans, but Browns fans have to like what they have seen from him this season and Cleveland go into New York to face the Jets and keep the momentum behind them.
The second London game of three is played in Week 5, although it does not look as strong on paper as it did when the Eagles-Jaguars game was announced earlier in the year.
Teams will be looking to get on track moving towards the first half of the regular season and the same can be said for the NFL Picks, which have made a very slow start to 2026 after the disappointing 2025.
Picks this week will begin with the Thursday Night Football game and others will be added to this thread through to the conclusion of Week 5 of the 2026 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Injuries to key players have hurt the New York Giants and Washington Commanders, while the Philadelphia Eagles have made a couple of moves over the last few days that suggests they do not think they are capable of winning the Super Bowl this season.
It is the Giants who lead the NFC East, but the Dallas Cowboys (2-2) have to be the favourites to win the Division and return to the Playoffs having missed out in each of the last two seasons. After three consecutive 12-5 finishes, the Cowboys have had back to back losing seasons and there is some pressure on this roster to finally make a big impact in the post-season.
They rallied to beat the Houston Texans in Week 4 and the Dallas Cowboys are big favourites when playing on Thursday Night Football when Week 5 gets underway. Bouncing back from the defeat in Brazil to the Baltimore Ravens has pulled the Cowboys back up to 0.500, but the fans will be expecting the team to have a winning record by the end of this game.
The Cowboys have big road games at the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles coming up, but it would be a big mistake to overlook the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) even if the NFC South team have begun this season in poor form.
Like many other teams, the Buccaneers have suffered an injury in the starting Quarter Back position, although Baker Mayfield had not been playing that well before sitting out. It does mean the Buccaneers have to play on a short week with rookie Jalon Daniels at Quarter Back and it is a big ask for any inexperienced player to perform on a short week, never mind one who was Undrafted.
Tampa Bay would have hoped Jalon Daniels could have been a project, but he was thrown into the deep end in Week 4 after Baker Mayfield was forced to sit out, and he did have issues throwing the ball. Jalon Daniels provides a dual-threat out of the Quarter Back position as he showed against the Green Bay Packers, but he had just 148 passing yards and produced a single Touchdown pass with a couple of Interceptions.
It is really important for the Buccaneers to lean on the Offensive Line who have been able to open some running lanes and they will note that the Dallas Cowboys have had some problems trying to stop the run. As long as they are in this game, Tampa Bay can try and keep the pressure away from the rookie Quarter Back, while Daniels may have a bit more time when stepping back to throw down the field considering the lack of Sacks produced by the Cowboys.
Pounding the rock and bleeding the clock will be the main plan for the Buccaneers to put themselves in the best position to win- keeping the powerful Cowboys on the sidelines for long periods is the only way Tampa Bay can hope to be successful.
Slowing down the Cowboys on the field will be much more challenging considering the way Dak Prescott and company have begun the 2026 season.
Dallas have played with some balance on this side of the ball, but they are going to be tested when it comes to trying to establish the run. Like they have for many years, the Buccaneers have looked be stout up front and they have been restricting opponents to 3.2 yards per carry to open this season, which will offer Tampa Bay some encouragement.
However, Tampa Bay have struggled to generate much of a pass rush and giving Dak Prescott time is only going to lead to the Cowboys moving the chains with some consistency.
Any Quarter Back that is given time to scan the field is going to have success and the Dallas Cowboys should be able to expose some of the vulnerabilities in the Buccaneers Secondary.
With the troubles that the Buccaneers have had in scoring enough points, the Dallas Cowboys are expected to have too much for Tampa Bay and especially on a short week.
This is a big spread, but the Dallas Cowboys could be tough to drag back if they get into a lead and force Tampa Bay to try and keep up by throwing the ball and the NFC East team can cover at home.
Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: You don't want to make big statements about any team four games into the season and especially one that does not have a losing record.
However, the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2) are flying to London with a decimated roster and you do have to wonder if they can keep things ticking forward until some of those issues clear up. The unexpected announcement from Lane Johnson about an immediate retirement was quickly followed by a decision to trade away Cam Jurgens and there is no doubt that the Offensive Line is now going to feel like a work in progress.
Some may still have expected the likes of Saquon Barkley to produce and make them look stronger than perhaps they are, but the Eagles are without this Running Back and Tank Bigsby, while they are also missing key Receivers.
All of that adds up to a tough day in the office for Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back, but even more so when you think of the Defensive unit they are about to face.
The Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) are leading the AFC South early in the season and this is mainly thanks to the level being produced by the Defensive unit, who are going to be very confident when facing this makeshift Philadelphia Offense.
Everything begins up front for the Jaguars and it is a tough game for the new look Philadelphia Offensive Line to try and have an impact like the Quarter Back and the team will need. Opponents have struggled to run the ball against the Jaguars all season and that is likely going to be the case in London in Week 5, which puts additional pressure on Jalen Hurts and what has been a dysfunctional passing game.
Being without some of the stronger Receivers on the roster only adds to the difficulties for the Philadelphia Eagles and it is hard to imagine them exploiting the holes that have been evident in the Jacksonville Secondary. One of the big positives of this Jaguars Secondary is the ability to turn the ball over and avoiding that is going to be the challenge for the Eagles when Jalen Hurts does have to drop back to throw.
As impressive as Jacksonville have been at the Line of Scrimmage on the Defensive side of the ball, there is a lot of room for improvement Offensively if this team is going to have a big impact in January and, perhaps, February. The Offensive Line has been able to help establish the run, but Trevor Lawrence and the passing game has not been up to the level that may have been expected, although that could be partly down to the game plan.
When leading, teams are not going to want to throw the ball and instead pound the rock and the Jaguars have done a lot of leading this.
They are facing an Eagles Defensive unit that have kept the team competitive even when the Offense has struggled, but the travel to London and perhaps the time that is going to need to be spent on the field does work against Philadelphia.
All Jacksonville will want to do is keep the team in third and manageable spots and that should give Trevor Lawrence the opportunity to keep the chains moving. The Quarter Back should have a largely clean pocket and the weather conditions in London suggest Trevor Lawrence should be able to find the passing lanes to keep the Jaguar moving forward and getting into a position where they can win and cover the spread.
Turnovers could be key to securing what may work out to be a win by double digits and the Jaguars can create those by making the Eagles one-dimensional Offensively and taking advantage of any mistakes made by Receivers backing up for the bigger names that are not expected to be involved.
Indianapolis Colts @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: The Indianapolis Colts (2-2) returned from a positive business trip to London and they have been able to pull the record back up to 0.500 for the season, but this is a tough spot for them. Not only are they are returning from a trip across the pond, but the Colts are set to play a road game without a Bye Week and this is something the NFL have tried to avoid.
The Dallas Cowboys won in that position earlier in the season when beating Houston on the road after losing in Brazil, but the time zone Rio operates in is much closer to that of the United States compared with London in the United Kingdom.
Only four teams have been in the situation that Indianapolis will face and the first two times it happened did not go so well for that road team.
Making excuses will not be acceptable to the Indianapolis fanbase as they look to keep themselves competing behind the Jacksonville Jaguars, but nothing will come easy at the home of the Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2).
Week 4 was a big disappointment for the Pittsburgh Steelers as they were beaten in frustrating fashion at the Cleveland Browns and it was a game in which the players and Head Coach made it clear that they were struggling to deal with the manner in which they were beaten. There has been time to fix the mistakes considering the Steelers played on Thursday Night Football in Week 4, but the team need to come out with better intensity and to maintain that throughout this game.
The match up looks like one that the Steelers can exploit on the Offensive side of the ball and they have bounced back the previous time they were beaten this season.
The Steelers Offensive Line has been able to establish the run and that is important to put Aaron Rodgers in a strong position on the field. The veteran Quarter Back is not as strong as he was in his prime, but Rodgers has weapons around him that can help him and it all begins with the Offensive Line and the running game keeping him in third and manageable spots.
Pittsburgh should be able to find some push at the Line of Scrimmage against this Colts Defensive Line and that should also mean Aaron Rodgers is given a little more time in the pocket. The Offensive Line have been stronger in run blocking than pass protection, but Aaron Rodgers is not someone that will want to hold onto the ball too long in third and manageable spots and that puts the Steelers in a good position.
There are holes in this Indianapolis Secondary that can exploited and Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers can move the ball with some consistency.
At the same time, the Indianapolis Colts have to be encouraged by the last couple of performances that they have produced Offensively and they will certainly believe Jonathan Taylor can pick up from where he left off in London. The Colts Offensive Line have not played at a great level, but Taylor can make big plays even when room looks limited and he will be encouraged by the recent struggles of the Pittsburgh Defensive Line.
Daniel Jones will need to find some improvements if there are any issues in the running game, but he has been inconsistent and the Quarter Back needs to avoid turnovers.
Once again, the match up looks pretty good on paper, but the Colts have a number of injuries in the Receiving areas that has made it tougher for Daniel Jones.
The scheduling of this game is not ideal for the Indianapolis Colts and that may end up being a real factor in determining the final outcome.
With the extra rest between games, the Pittsburgh Steelers may be able to stall one or two Indianapolis drives in the second half and that may end up giving the hosts the edge and they can move back above 0.500 for the 2026 season.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: Both teams are trying to bounce back from disappointing defeats in Week 4 of the 2026 season, but the Arizona Cardinals (1-3) have now dropped three in a row after the opening Week upset.
They are hosting the Detroit Lions (2-2) who have made a mixed start to the season and that is thanks to an underperforming Defensive unit.
There are aspects of the Lions Defense that is to be liked, but this is a team that have so many injuries to deal with right now and that has meant it has become that much tougher to stall drives. Every team that has faced Detroit this season has scored at least 24 points and the Arizona Cardinals may feel they can do the same.
It will mean making an improvement on this side of the ball, but the Cardinals will be going into Week 5 with Marvin Harrison Jr inactive as they look to finalise a trade for the Wide Receiver. That will be a blow to the Offensive unit, although Harrison Jr has not been playing as well as the Cardinals would have hoped.
Jacoby Brissett will continue to lead the Cardinals from the Quarter Back position, but he will be hoping the team can remain competitive enough to be able to lean on the run game. The Offensive Line have opened up some decent holes up front and the Cardinals will take encouragement from the way the Lions have performed at the Line of Scrimmage on this side of the ball.
Moving the ball on the ground and keeping the team in front of the chains will cool down the Detroit pass rush, but any time the Cardinals are in third and long spots, the Lions will be looking to get after Jacoby Brissett.
Arizona fans will note that there is room for improvement in the passing game in general, but they will be aided by the performances produced by the Detroit Secondary. If they are in third and manageable spots on the field, Jacoby Brissett will be able to make some big throws down the field, although the key is managing the mistakes and avoiding turnovers that may allow the Detroit Lions to build up some real momentum.
The Lions should have consistent success on the Offensive side of the ball, although they are going to be looking for a bit more balance.
This will begin with the Offensive Line being able to perform with a bit more authority at the Line of Scrimmage and try and get the run game producing at a more efficient level. Doing so will ease the pressure on Jared Goff at Quarter Back, who has been playing well, but, like any Quarter Back, does not want to be operating a one-dimensional attack.
He should get some time when he steps back to throw the ball considering the lack of a pass rush that the Cardinals have produced, and Jared Goff should be able to find some big plays down the field. Doing so with a running game to back him up is the key to any sustainable success, but in this game, Detroit should be able to score enough points to cover the handicap set.
Nothing ever comes easily when your own Defensive unit is struggling like Detroit's has been, but Arizona have lost their way a little bit since the opening week upset and that could allow the Lions to force a win by a Touchdown mark.
MY PICKS: Dallas Cowboys - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 4: 4-4, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
Week 3: 2-5, - 3.09 Units (7 Units Staked, - 44.14% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 1.31 Units (7 Units Staked, - 18.71% Yield)
Week 1: 2-4-1, - 2.23 Units (7 Units Staked, - 31.86% Yield)
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