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Friday 31 July 2020

Boxing Picks 2020- Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman (August 1st)

Who would have thought that the Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury Rematch was going to be the last really big Boxing event for months?

That fight might only have occurred five months ago, but with all the goings on in the world it does feel like it has been a lot, lot longer than that.

Things have yet to return to normal, but the UFC have shown you can put on fascinating cards even though those have to be behind closed doors- their business model is a lot different to Boxing which means those big fights are easier to arrange, but Dana White has shown you can put the right protocols in place to have combat sports return even in the current environment.

Eddie Hearn was always going to try and do something a bit special and organising four weeks of Fight Camps in his back garden is definitely a bit different. The first of those four weeks begins on August 1st and, unlike some other promoters, Hearn is making sure they are four good looking cards.

The final one looks the best with the likes of Dillian Whyte, Alexander Povetkin, Katie Taylor and Delfine Persoon all on that one, but the opening weekend is giving the fans some good looking fights albeit at a lower level than those World level fights arriving later in the month.

We also have a couple other cards taking place this week which means the Boxing begins on Friday and goes through to the early hours of Sunday morning in the United Kingdom.

While it is going to take a while for things to get back to the normality of seeing fans in the stands and watching the big names face each other, it is good to have Boxing back and there are plenty of big fights to look forward to.


The early suspension of sporting events came at a time when the 2020 Boxing season has not really gotten underway and so there have been very few picks made so far this year. Things should be different over the next month with the cards that are in place, but the situation could change quickly and all it takes is a couple of failed tests and these cards could all have a different feel.

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy that are involved in all of these events being put together for our entertainment.


Lyndon Arthur vs Dec Spelman
If it wasn't for the Covid crisis that took over the world, Lyndon Arthur would have been set to fight Anthony Yarde as he looks to prove himself the best in Britain at Light Heavyweight level.

Make no mistake, it was a huge step up for Arthur who is unbeaten in sixteen fights but who would then be going in with a former World Title challenger. Anthony Yarde was not far away from Knocking Out Sergey Kovalev, but for now Arthur has to focus on other targets before trying to renew hostilities with the 'Lion in the Camp'.

That fight may be put together before the end of the year and confidence has not been dampened in the meantime. Lyndon Arthur has made it clear that he expects to be considered better than both Yarde and Joshua Buatsi by the end of 2020, two high profile Light Heavyweights that are close to World level already.

It will be sounding like a very hollow statement if Arthur is not able to beat Dec Spelman in this main event fight from the BT Studios in Stratford on Friday evening.

Dec Spelman has a 16-3 record and two of those losses have come against English Light Heavyweight Champion Shakan Pitters. The other defeat came to Scott Westgarth who tragically later passed away and it is that event which inspires Spelman to try and be the very best he can be.

I have no doubt that Spelman will come forward and try and close the gap to the bigger man, but I also have to be wary of the fact that the Boxer has been Knocked Down a couple of times. Now he is facing a pretty big hitter in Lyndon Arthur who has stopped twelve of his sixteen beaten opponents and even managed to put down tough Emmanuel Anim when winning the Commonwealth Light Heavyweight Title.

He won't need to go looking for Spelman in this Title fight and I think that will play into Lyndon Arthur's hands, which look to be heavier than his opponent's. Over Twelve Rounds I would expect Arthur to begin to punish Dec Spelman and it may result in either the referee or the corner looking to pull out their man.

The Mancunian has suggested that he could finish this early, but I do give Dec Spelman's toughness some credit and will just look for Arthur to find a finish at some point over the thirty-six minutes they are in the ring with each other.


Jordan Gill vs Reece Bellotti
Both fighters are under 30 years old, but this is very much a crossroads night for both Jordan Gill and Reece Bellotti who both looked destined for big things before running into upset losses.

Twenty-three straight wins for Jordan Gill had him headlining events, but he was stunned in being stopped by Enrique Tinoco and in the last fifteen months he has had just six more Rounds since then.

Also, Jordan Gill has dealt with some health issues which even put his Boxing career in jeopardy and you do have to put this together and begin to wonder how much he has left to give. There is no doubting the skill levels of Gill and he is the superior Boxer in this fight, but you do have to wonder how much his body can take if Reece Bellotti can fire up some of the big punches he is known for.

A misdiagnosis hindered Jordan Gill's ability to move past his Thyroid Disease, but he has made it clear that he is better now and ready to refocus on his Boxing career which stalled in that loss last year.

Jordan Gill will be looking to contain the press that Reece Bellotti is going to try and put on him and he should be able to get the better of the pure Boxing exchanges. However, Bellotti has been known to work hard and hit harder even though he has been beaten in three of his last five fights.

They have a common opponent in Ryan Doyle who stopped Reece Bellotti in an upset before being stopped by Jordan Gill in his next fight. I don't think that is going to be something that bothers Bellotti who has also suffered a couple of Split Decision defeats since then and the loss to Doyle can be put down to a lack of focus on the part of the Watford man.

Reece Bellotti knows it is looking like a 'win or bust' night for him on Saturday and I think that inspires him to close the gap whenever he can and unload on Jordan Gill. A counter could be his downfall, but Bellotti will want to test out the Gill body and see whether he is capable of standing up to his level of puncher having stopped twelve of the fourteen fighters he has beaten in the pro ranks.

On the cards I think it will be very difficult for Bellotti to win this fight, but I do think he is good enough to force the fight and make Jordan Gill work at a pace he may not like. That pressure and aggression could see Bellotti sneak a couple of early Rounds and I think he will be the fighter who comes on strong the longer this goes on.

It is a Ten Rounder which lessens the enthusiasm to back Reece Bellotti, but I do think this is a closer fight than the oddsmakers do. If Jordan Gill is still having a few health issues and is perhaps a little soft in the body, Reece Bellotti hits hard enough to ask a lot of questions and I think he is worth a small interest to earn the big upset.

The reality is that Jordan Gill prior to the loss to Tinoco would have been a similar price to the one we are seeing for this one in my opinion- only now we know Gill might not be the most confident in being able to absorb punishment in the body and he has largely been inactive over the last fifteen months.

Reece Bellotti has not exactly been fighting every week, but he has had fourteen Rounds in the bank since Jordan Gill's defeat in May 2019 and that is eight more Rounds than his opponent. As long as Reece Bellotti isn't reckless, I think he can make this very competitive and force the pace against a superior Boxer, one that Jordan Gill may not enjoy.


Dalton Smith vs Nathan Bennett
A strong amateur career was not signed off with an appearance at the 2020 Olympics and with the way things have gone in the world it might have been the best decision Dalton Smith has made.

He enters his sixth professional fight this weekend and is a big favourite to see off 9-1 Nathan Bennett, although the latter is speaking confidently about taking an opportunity to change his life.

An upset win for Bennett will do that as he will likely get plenty more work with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotion, but this will be the first time the Liverpudlian has taken on an opponent with a winning record. Only two stoppages in nine wins suggests Nathan Bennett doesn't really hit hard enough to earn the respect of Sheffield's most successful amateur Boxer who has stopped his last four opponents since turning professional.

Dalton Smith has revealed he had a lot of hand injuries during his time in the amateurs, but he feels those are now behind him and he has yet to be taken beyond the Fourth Round. This is the next step on his progression as a Boxer as he moves into his first fight scheduled for more than Six Rounds, but I do think Smith can get on top early and have another relatively early night.

There are levels in Boxing and I expect Smith to clearly show he is levels above Nathan Bennett. I expect the latter to give it a go, but I think he will quickly learn that his opponent has the heavier hands and I do think Dalton Smith gets this over with in the first half of the scheduled Eight Rounds.


Fabio Wardley vs Simon Vallily
With very little experience, Fabio Wardley decided to move into the professional Heavyweight ranks of Boxing and so far it is so good for Dillian Whyte's protege. We are going to learn a lot more about Wardley on Saturday evening as he gets set to take on Simon Vallily who looks to be the toughest opponent of his relatively young career so far.

Size is very much on the side of Fabio Wardley, but he has also displayed plenty of athleticism in his career so far. However, Simon Vallily will be the first to tell you that Wardley has not fought anyone of note yet and he wants to bring the fight to the 25 year old and see exactly what he is made of.

Simon Vallily moved up to Heavyweight having lost the last fight at Cruiserweight to Craig Glover. Since then he has four fights at this weight, won three by stoppage and also beat common opponent with Wardley in Phil Williams. Simon Vallily needed the cards to earn the win over Williams but Fabio Wardley stopped him in Three Rounds, although that rarely means a lot in Boxing.

What it should underline is that Wardley is the bigger puncher in this contest and a lot is going to depend on how much Vallily can take from him. All of the indications from the underdog is that he is looking to test Fabio Wardley and will go looking for him and I am not sure that is the right approach at a weight where Wardley is the more natural.

In his two stoppages at Cruiserweight, Simon Vallily was knocked down early in both although one of those defeats came against the quality of Mairis Breidis. You do have to question how much he can take from someone like Fabio Wardley who clearly does hit very hard and I think this could be a rough, early night for the veteran fighter.

I expect Simon Vallily to show heart and guts, but Wardley will be expected to have too much for him. He sets up his shots well and I think once he has Vallily hurt he will get the job done, although Fabio Wardley still has plenty of learning to do before he is ready to take the next steps in his career.

The anger displayed from Simon Vallily in the last presser may work into Fabio Wardley's hands who may not have to look too far to find his target in this bout.



James Tennyson vs Gavin Gwynne
There are some good looking fights on the opening card that Matchroom have put together in Eddie Hearn's back garden and this looks like being another.

James Tennyson has very little give in him and he takes on a tough Welshman in Gavin Gwynne who has a single loss on his record against Joe Cordina last year.

His Northern Irish opponent has been beaten three times and all by stoppage, but Tennyson has looked stronger at Lightweight and has four wins behind him and all before the scheduled Rounds were completed. Three of the four fighters faced since his loss to Tevin Farmer have had winning records when they have entered the ring and the stoppage of Craig Evans in November 2019 was a very strong win for James Tennyson.

Neither has been in the ring in 2020 which means there are some doubts as to how they are feeling as they deal with ring rustiness, but I can't see anything but a physical, tough fight where the two Boxers will be trading some heavy leather for as long as it lasts.

Gavin Gwynne doesn't have the strongest of resumes, and he came up short when fighting for the British Lightweight Title last year. However there is no doubting that he won't take a backward step in this one and Gwynne may be the naturally bigger man having had some fights at the Light Welterweight Division since turning professional.

The experience edge may be with James Tennyson who has had more fights and fought for a World Title, but being the bigger man has to be a factor for Gavin Gwynne. He may try and outbox Tennyson using his length, but much is going to depend on how he handles the power that the Northern Irishman has clearly brought up to the Lightweight Division.

It really does feel like both men may end up meeting in the middle of the ring and letting their hands go and Gavin Gwynne will be well aware that as hard as James Tennyson hits, he has been stopped in all three of his previous defeats. Those have come at the hands of smaller men than Gwynne, although two stoppages in twelve wins for the underdog is not exactly screaming out 'Knock Out' in this one.

He is a tough fighter though and I think this is going to be a bout in which James Tennyson is going to have to wear down Gavin Gwynne. The latter may try and use his size to keep clear of the heavy artillery that is going to be thrown his way, but I think eventually we will see Tennyson catch up to him and that should lead to a stoppage win for the favourite.

Stopping Gavin Gwynne will really lay down a marker for the future for James Tennyson and I think the fighter from Belfast will eventually be able to do that.


Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman
It doesn't feel that long ago that Ted Cheeseman was headlining events and looking like a Boxer that was going to be pushed along for World honours.

Things have not really gone as expected for Cheeseman since 2019 and he has not won any of his last three fights, losing two and earning a draw in the other. Out of the ring issues have not helped Ted Cheeseman either, but the 24 year old will be frustrated that the last Decision went against him when facing Scott Fitzgerald.

Some will think it is harsh to suggest it is a crossroads fight for both Boxers, but you have to believe that is the case. Ted Cheeseman can't afford to drop another defeat to a British level opponent, while in the other corner Sam Eggington has already been fortunate enough to remain on track for a World Title bid despite having six defeats already.

Every time it has felt like Sam Eggington has hit a wall in his career he has bounced back with some big performances and I do think the fan friendly style is giving him more opportunities than others may have not been afforded.

This should be another one, although you can see a situation where Ted Cheeseman looks to showcase his superior Boxing skills and pick off the rushing Sam Eggington. That was the tactic employed in the close defeat to Scott Fitzgerald, although Cheeseman is looking to impose himself and bully his opponent a little more in this one.

For the early Rounds I do think Cheeseman will look to frustrate Eggington before he begins to break down what have been vulnerable defences showed by the latter. Ted Cheeseman is indicating he is in a much better space mentally now and I do think he will want to avoid another Decision he doesn't agree with having felt he did enough to beat Fitzgerald and Kieron Conway.

I have no doubt that the Sam Eggington tactic will be to get forward and try and land as much as possible to allow his power to make the difference. Ultimately he has been found out when he has stepped up and I do think Ted Cheeseman has better all around skills which will allow him to dictate the direction in which this fight goes.

A points Decision would not surprise me in favour of Ted Cheeseman, but I do think he will push for the stoppage once he gets through the early storm. Sitting down on a few shots against Sam Eggington who likes to defend using his head rather than his hands could prove to be telling by the latter Rounds and I do think Cheeseman will look to settle the fight without the need for the judges.

The last two defeats suffered by Sam Eggington have come in stoppages and I do think Ted Cheeseman might have enough volume to secure another one late on in this bout.

MY PICKS: Lyndon Arthur to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Reece Bellotti @ 4.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Dalton Smith to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Fabio Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
James Tennyson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

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