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Tuesday, 14 July 2020

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 14-17)

We are down to the final three Premier League rounds of the 2019/20 season and the big news ahead of the midweek fixtures has to be that two of the four Champions League places have been decided.

Manchester City won their appeal against UEFA when the CAS announced they should not be banned from European competition and that means this club will be playing in the Champions League along with Liverpool.

They did sound very confident from the day the initial ban was handed out by UEFA that it would be overturned and it does feel like the latter rushed the punishment without getting all their ducks in a row.

Now they are unlikely to take things any further which will be music to the ears of everyone associated with Manchester City, but perhaps not so much to Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United fans.

Those three teams look certain to finish in the top five of the Premier League and there might have been some hope that a Manchester City ban would allow all of them to make the Champions League, but instead it will be three teams fighting for two places. That final day fixture between Leicester City and Manchester United could easily be a winner takes all contest, although I am firm in my own belief that Manchester United will finish in the top four if they can beat Southampton, Crystal Palace and West Ham United before the final day fixtures are completed.


Things may look a little clearer by the end of this week as Premier League matches are played from Tuesday through to Friday. I will get into the FPL GW below, but first you can read my thoughts on how the matches from the midweek round will go.


Chelsea v Norwich City Pick: The Leicester City defeat on Sunday has left Chelsea in control of one of the top four places with three Premier League games to play, but Frank Lampard will not see the silver lining after his own team were crushed 3-0 at Sheffield United.

Frank Lampard will be demanding a big reaction from his team who have two very difficult looking games to come to conclude the season. Dropping points against an already relegated opponent could be a fatal blow to Chelsea's Champions League ambitions, but a win would put pressure on the likes of Leicester City and Manchester United who will be playing later this week.

The CAS decision to overturn Manchester City's ban from European competition has just upped the pressure on Chelsea and failing to return to the Champions League would be a huge blow to the club.

Chelsea have won 4 in a row at home over the last several months and Chelsea have conceded a single goal in that time.

Now they are hosting a Norwich City team who have scored 4 goals in their last 10 away Premier League games and who looked short of confidence in their 0-4 home loss to West Ham United on Saturday. There may be a feeling of release in the squad now that Norwich City have nothing to lose over their last three games, but it is very difficult to imagine things being very different at a tough away ground.

You can't always trust Chelsea considering their recent defensive performances, but they should largely manage this game as they did when beating Watford 3-0 here in their last fixture at Stamford Bridge. There is enough time to prepare for a big Cup game to come this weekend to believe Frank Lampard will play a strong team and I think they will be too good for Norwich City and likely win this game with a clean sheet.


Burnley v Wolves Pick: This might not be the fixture that neutral fans will be wanting to tune into in the early Wednesday slot, but it is an important one for both Burnley and Wolves.

Both of these teams have real ambitions of earning European spots next season, but the draw is not going to do anything for either and so you would expect attacking line ups to be selected.

However, neither Burnley nor Wolves have shown a lot of consistency in the final third since the season resumed and both have been better defensively. Well they have both been better defensively as far as the results would state, but Burnley have not been keeping teams from creating some very good chances against them and they have been thankful to Nick Pope for keeping them in games like he did in their 1-1 draw at Liverpool on Saturday.

Even in the last 2 games at Turf Moor, Burnley have not exactly been watertight against Watford and Sheffield United and this has to give Wolves some confidence off an impressive 3-0 win over Everton.

In saying that Wolves did not create a lot until given a penalty late in the first half and then scored another less than a minute after half time in that game. There is some quality in the Wolves team, but they are a functional team that can struggle to break down opponents and I honestly could see this game flying in a number of different directions.

Burnley are unbeaten in 6 at home, but Wolves had won 3 away games in succession before conceding very late on at Sheffield United. My feeling is that Wolves may sneak the win, but they are plenty short to do that and I will just be looking out for Willy Boly and Raul Jimenez to be amongst the Fantasy points.


Manchester City v Bournemouth Pick: Watford, West Ham United and Aston Villa all won games before Bournemouth kicked off and the players had to be feeling the pressure with their Premier League futures looking under threat when they took to the Vitality Stadium turf.

They were 0-1 down to Leicester City and Bournemouth looked a little lost before they received a huge slice of luck to get back into the game. Two goals in quick succession followed by a Leicester City sending off gave Bournemouth all the momentum they needed as they saw off the Champions League chasing visitors 4-1 and Bournemouth have a sniff of avoiding the drop now.

In all honesty this is likely the last game they would have wanted off the back of a morale boosting win and Eddie Howe is likely going to want his team to sit in and try and stay in the game as long as possible.

That is much easier to say than do and especially with more defensive injuries to deal with as Nathan Ake limped off on Sunday.

It would be difficult enough visiting the Etihad Stadium with a fully fit squad, but this looks a very big ask of Bournemouth. Manchester City have won 5 in a row at home in the Premier League and they have out-scored opponents 17-0 in the 4 games played here since the restart of English Football.

Pep Guardiola will likely rotate his squad knowing they have a big Cup Semi Final to come this weekend, but this is a deep squad and there will still be a lot of quality in the Manchester City starting eleven. That quality should tell against a Bournemouth team they have beaten 4 times in a row at home in the Premier League and by a 16-2 aggregate.

Goal difference could be the difference between the Premier League and Championship next season, but Bournemouth will do well to leave here even with a narrow defeat. Manchester City are flying at the moment and creating chances for fun and they should be able to get through Bournemouth fairly comfortably.

Manchester United beat Bournemouth 5-2 at Old Trafford ten days ago, and I think Manchester City will match that margin even with the changes the manager is likely to make.

The team should be looking to make a statement of their own after the club were given a reprieve from their European ban and I would expect a relatively straight-forward day for Manchester City.


Newcastle United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Both teams are looking for a strong end to the Premier League season, although it is only Tottenham Hotspur who now have a realistic ambition of playing in Europe next season.

The come from behind win over Arsenal on Sunday will have been a real shot in the arm for the players, but Tottenham Hotspur have struggled away from home all season. The layers are clearly pricing them up at odds on to win here because Tottenham Hotspur 'need' the game more than their hosts, but defensively they have looked vulnerable on their travels and that is something Newcastle United can exploit.

Steve Bruce has set his Newcastle United team to be fairly attacking in recent weeks with survival secured and looking to progress the squad forward. They are playing with pace in the final third and Newcastle United have created chances in games, although the new look and mentality has left them very open at the back.

Watford and West Ham United have both exposed the vulnerabilities of Newcastle United as they have begun to play with more attacking intent and that is what Tottenham Hotspur have to do.

It does have to be said that Tottenham Hotspur have not exactly impressed over the last month and they are a team who can struggle for consistency in the final third. Some of that is down to understanding what Jose Mourinho wants, but it is also partly down to the manager who tends to be more cautious in his style.

He can't afford to see Tottenham Hotspur drop points here though despite Mourinho's personal poor record at St James' Park. He has never managed a Premier League win here and I do think Newcastle United are playing well enough to create chances and score goals here.

I would not be surprised if Newcastle United earn a positive result here despite their own recent poor run. They have created chances though and I think Newcastle United can score, but the bigger feeling is that this is going to be a fixture that produces goals with both teams likely wanting to get forward.

6 of the last 7 at St James' Park between these clubs have featured at least three goals shared out and I do think there will be chances for both teams. The draw is not really worth anything to either team so this should be a game where risks are taken to earn the maximum points and a 2-1 scoreline either way would not be a surprise.


Arsenal v Liverpool Pick: In most top flight seasons Arsenal versus Liverpool is one of the stand out fixtures, but both clubs don't have as much to play for when they meet with just three League games to negotiate.

Liverpool have achieved all they wanted by winning the Premier League title and they have been struggling for some consistency in recent matches. The 1-1 home draw with Burnley are the first points Liverpool have dropped at Anfield since January 2019 and they have won just half of the 6 Premier League games played over the last month.

There is more on the line for Arsenal, but the 2-1 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday will have knocked confidence of the players. They previously drew 1-1 with Leicester City and might now be focused on trying to win the FA Cup as arguably their best route back into the Europa League.

Mikel Arteta does have his side playing pretty well defensively, but there are still mistakes in the team which was evident in the loss in the North London derby. They still look vulnerable to set pieces too and Liverpool have fine deliverers of the ball and a big team that can cause massive problems for the home team.

However there has yet to be the a lot of consistency in their play and I do think this could be a tight game on a ground where Arsenal and Liverpool have drawn 3 of their last 4 games against each other.

In general this has been a fixture which has produced a lot of goals so the layers are not taking any chances with it, but I think Arteta has looked to make Arsenal a little tougher all around. The last two managers have perhaps looked to go toe to toe with Liverpool, but I don't believe Arteta will approach this the same way and it could be a tight game.

It took a special goal from Alexandre Lacazette and a huge mistake from the Arsenal defence to produce two early goals on Sunday, but chances were not coming frequently outside of that. Liverpool won't want to be as open as they have been in their last couple of games as they chase three wins to break Manchester City's 100 point record, and I can see a relatively tight game to come out.

An early goal will change the entire feel of the fixture, but I think both teams might look to work their way into this one and it might be surprisingly low-scoring.


Everton v Aston Villa Pick: Anyone watching the Everton performance in their 3-0 loss at Wolves on Sunday may be worried about how much the players want to put into the remainder of the season. While it is true to say there is little left for Everton to play for, the players will also know Carlo Ancelotti has been appointed to take the club to the next level and so they have to prove they deserve to be kept on board.

The manager will be expecting a huge reaction from his team after the last performance and Everton have been stronger at home. They are unbeaten in 11 at Goodison Park in all competitions, although Everton have been given some problems by both Leicester City and Southampton in their last couple of games here.

Aston Villa have simply not looked like a team with the same attacking threat as those two clubs though and that has to be taken on board.

They have produced a big win on Sunday, but Aston Villa's confidence looks to be balanced finely and you do wonder how much belief they have to turn things around if they fall behind. They have still looked vulnerable at the back and could be missing a couple of defenders in this one, while Aston Villa are not producing a lot of consistency in the final third which adds to the pressure on those defenders looking to keep the backdoor shut.

As poor as Everton were on Sunday, I do think they are better than what they showed and they should have more spaces to try and exploit in this one. I do think they will have a reaction to the performance and Aston Villa might not have enough goals to stay with their hosts who look more threatening going forward than their relegation threatened visitors.

Aston Villa have more to play for, and they may feel that Everton are there for the taking after Sunday, but that might make the home team underestimated. Just because Aston Villa 'need' to win more than Everton, I am not sure the home team will be ready to roll over for them and there is enough of an attacking threat to give the home team a narrow win.


Leicester City v Sheffield United Pick: Over the last several months Leicester City have looked far short of the team they were earlier in the season when there was some suggestion they could be Liverpool's closest challengers for the Premier League title. Instead the team are fighting to even earn a top four position as Manchester United have closed in on them and this is far from an easy game for them.

Brendan Rodgers will feel his team dropped key points in their 4-1 defeat at the Vitality Stadium on Sunday- on the day Leicester City looked dominant at 0-1 up, but mistakes at the back turned the game on its head and the heavy defeat will have knocked the confidence of the players.

The hope is that Ben Chilwell and James Maddison can return to the squad sooner rather than later, but Leicester City have to go without in this one in all likelihood and the pressure is on. Anything less than a win could be curtains for Leicester City in their bid to return to the Champions League with games against Spurs and Manchester United to finish the season and especially so if there is a wide gap to bridge by the end of Thursday night which could be the case.

They might be desperate for the win, but Chris Wilder's Sheffield United don't roll over for any opponent. The heavy defeats of both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea underline the point and the players look to be in much better shape than when they returned to action last month.

Sheffield United don't concede a lot of goals and their strong defensive shape will give them every chance of earning a positive result here. One goal may be enough to avoid a defeat at the King Power Stadium, and The Blades have found a cutting edge over the last ten days which has to be given a lot of respect.

It is a fixture that feels like it could be very close, but there doesn't seem to be a lot of value floating around this one. Leicester City are odds against to win, but backing them to win any game at the moment feels like a chore as they have struggled at both ends of the field.

However, I do think Sheffield United are a hard team to read because they do lack some goals and that is especially the case on their travels. This has the feeling of a single goal being enough to secure the points for either side and I can't say I am very confident on being able to select which of the two teams will do enough to do that.

Both teams will believe in their own abilities, but my lean might be towards Sheffield United to find a way to earn a positive result on the day and put another dagger into Leicester City's push for a Champions League finish.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United PickThere are two ways of viewing some teams at this stage of the season in the position that Crystal Palace find themselves and that is either they are going to want to upset others who are playing for more than pride or they have already begun thinking about a short holiday between seasons.

A 5 game losing run in the Premier League may suggest that Crystal Palace are not so focused at the moment, but that would ignore the effort the players put in to their 2-3 defeat here to Chelsea last week.

Without a doubt it would be a different atmosphere if the fans were allowed into the Stadium as they would be urging their players to get forward and upset a 'big name club', but Crystal Palace found enough from within to challenge Chelsea. I would be surprised if things were much different when they host Manchester United on Thursday and this has been a high-scoring fixture in recent seasons as Crystal Palace have pushed Manchester United.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be reminding his players that teams with 'nothing to play for' can be very dangerous as Southampton proved on Monday night. The injury time equaliser meant Manchester United were left outside the top four and no longer control their own destiny, while the pressure will certainly be on if both Chelsea and Leicester City win their Premier League games before United play on Thursday evening.

At least Manchester United have continued scoring plenty of goals and that should encourage them against an injury hit Crystal Palace team that have conceded 17 goals in 5 consecutive Premier League defeats. Chelsea managed to score three times in winning here, but Roy Hodgson will be looking to attack a Manchester United backline that has been anything but secure in their last couple of games.

I do think Crystal Palace will score, but I also think Manchester United can bounce back from their dropped points on Monday. They have a pacy front three who can take any game away from an opponent and Crystal Palace are offering some very good chances out to teams they are facing.

Manchester United have won 5 of their last 6 games on this ground and have scored at least twice in each of those wins. They have scored three times in their last 2 visits to Selhurst Park and also in their last 2 away Premier League games in general and I think Manchester United will come out on top of this high-scoring game on Thursday.


Southampton v Brighton PickOne of the factors that can be most difficult to give a strength to is how teams are coping with the short turnaround between matches as the Premier League tries to complete the season before the end of the month.

Southampton have had two days fewer to prepare for this Premier League game than Brighton, and I do think that is an issue which could prove to be a difference on the day.

It is something that concerns me, but Southampton have been in very good form over the last couple of weeks and they have to believe they can become the latest club to exploit some of the Brighton defensive weaknesses.

Brighton did win at Norwich City in their last away game, but they have conceded 11 goals in 3 defeats to Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City. There is no doubt that Southampton are not quite as strong as those teams, but they have been creating plenty of chances when going forward at Everton and Old Trafford and I do think they may have the edge in the contest.

It should be a decent game with both managers liking their teams to get forward and create opportunities, and I would not be surprised if both teams have chances to hit the back of the net. Southampton have been getting the better of Brighton in the last two years, and they would have won 4 in a row if not blowing a 2-0 lead in a 2-2 draw here last season.

There has been a better shape in Brighton's defending in recent away games which has to be respected, but Southampton might just have too much in the final third in this one. Ralph Hasenhuttl is likely to pick another attacking line up that will look to press Brighton and force mistakes high up the pitch, while Danny Ings may still feel he can win the Golden Boot race with a strong end to the season.

I expect Ings to have some chances and I think Southampton may edge this one, although Brighton have to be respected with their battling away displays of late.


West Ham United v Watford PickThis is not quite a 'loser is relegated' kind of match, but the winning team in this Friday night showdown will almost certainly be safe from the drop.

Both David Moyes and Nigel Pearson will know the importance of the three points, although there is a slight feeling that the draw might suit both if Bournemouth and Aston Villa have been beaten in games played on Wednesday and Thursday.

That situation does cloud this one, but on current form I do think the edge is with home team West Ham United. In their last four Premier League games West Ham United have dominated the chances compared with their opponents, although the defensive problems always leaves the team vulnerable to a defeat like they suffered against Burnley.

The wins over Chelsea and Norwich City were fully deserved and West Ham United should have beaten Newcastle United and Burnley too, but it is all about which of these teams takes their chances the best.

Watford won't be short of confidence having rallied from 0-1 down to beat both Norwich City and Newcastle United over the last ten days. Both wins did come at home though and Watford have not scored in their last 4 away games in the Premier League and lost each one.

They should be able to pose some problems for West Ham United with their pace in the forward areas, but I do think Nigel Pearson will be concerned by some of the defending of late.

I expect the majority of chances to come for the home team and I do think that will give them the edge in this fixture. It might be close and tense if both Bournemouth and Aston Villa have won midweek games, but regardless of the situation I do think West Ham United are playing the better all around football over the last couple of weeks which can see them edge to the three points.

MY PICKS: Chelsea Win to Nil
Manchester City - 2.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals
Arsenal-Liverpool Under 2.5 Goals
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester United & Over Two Total Goals
Southampton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
West Ham United 0 Asian Handicap



Fantasy Football GameWeek 36+
It can be easy to perhaps panic and make rash decisions when playing the Fantasy Football game and especially when coming in off what is a disappointing week compared to those around you.

However I did say I wanted to keep the squad together so I would have two transfers to use in GameWeek 36+ and it has turned out to be the right decision.

Michail Antonio was brought in ahead of West Ham United's game against Burnley and it did not work out, but four goals in GW35+ has more than made up for it. The goal conceded by Liverpool was surprising, but Wolves returned a clean sheet and a goal for Raul Jimenez to at least boost the total for the week.

Captaining Anthony Martial proved to be a good move, although Manchester United's failure to earn a clean sheet was a blow. Even worse, as a fan it stung to see the team concede a second goal deep into injury time, but I do think the attacking threat of the side will give them a chance to end this Fantasy season in strong fashion.


I am still very much keeping the Free Hit Chip for the final GameWeek of the season as I am comfortable with the squad and have the two transfers to play this week.

For me the weakness of the team is clearly in the front line where Roberto Firmino and Raul Jimenez are taking the lion's share of the funds available.

With Jimenez scoring on Sunday I do feel I might be moving him on at the wrong time, but Firmino 100% has to be taken out this week. Liverpool have two difficult games coming up and Firmino seems to be the one that ties everything together for them, but is not often on the end of the chances being created.

Both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane are chasing goal targets so they might be a little more 'greedy' with nothing left for Liverpool to play for.

I am really looking to bring in selections that may have an impact in each of the next two GameWeeks knowing the final weekend of the 2019/20 season will be a blank canvass from which I can paint my last team. It isn't easy ignoring the Chelsea and Manchester City fixtures this week, but with Chelsea going to Anfield next week I am happy keeping Christian Pulisic around even if he is a potential rotation candidate.

The one player I am most worried about avoiding is Phil Foden- I think he starts against a defensively weak Bournemouth team and he has been getting into very good positions for a Manchester City team who have scored ten goals in two games,

He could be a difference maker at this stage of the season, but I am not comfortable about dropping any of my midfield options and so the Manchester City player I am targeting is Gabriel Jesus.

The Cup Semi Final against Arsenal is the bigger game this week, but I do think Pep Guardiola is trying to build the confidence of a striker that may be key for Manchester City in the FA Cup and Champions League over the next several weeks. Gabriel Jesus was withdrawn with half an hour to go on Saturday and I would be disappointed if he doesn't lead the line.

Picking him and Danny Ings (chasing a Golden Boot and playing Brighton and Bournemouth in the next two GWs) in place of Firmino and Jimenez looks like a good enough move for me here. Wolves are playing two teams who have not defended very well in recent weeks in terms of the raw numbers, but they don't blow teams away so the risk in dropping Raul Jimenez looks like one I am ready to take.


Once again I am sticking with the Manchester United options in terms of a Captain and will go with Anthony Martial for the second GW in a row- the FA Cup Semi Final coming up on Sunday does cloud things as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer tries to keep the squad as fresh as possible, but the top four is more important than a Cup success to the manager and I do expect Martial to get at least 70 minutes against a Crystal Palace team who have conceded goals for fun in 5 consecutive losses.

With the transfers made I do feel like my overall team in GW36+ looks pretty good and I don't want to take any hits to change it more than it needs to be. This squad should be good enough for both upcoming GWs although my plan for the last free transfer of the season is to add to the midfield options for GW37+ or cover for any injuries coming out of the next four days of football.


My GW36+ team is going to be as follows:

Alisson (Liverpool v Arsenal)

Willy Boly (Wolves v Burnley)
James Justin (Leicester City v Sheffield United)
Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool v Arsenal)

Kevin De Bruyne (Manchester City v Bournemouth)
Anthony Martial (Manchester United v Crystal Palace)
Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United v Crystal Palace)
Christian Pulisic (Chelsea v Norwich City)
Michail Antonio (West Ham United v Watford)

Gabriel Jesus (Manchester City v Bournemouth)
Danny Ings (Southampton v Brighton)

Bench: Emiliano Martinez, Dwight Gayle, Harry Maguire, Federico Fernandez

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