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Friday 3 July 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 4-6)

The Premier League title may have been decided, but the race for the top four places has heated up thanks to results this past week.

Even the chase for the European places look likely to go down to the wire, while I think it is difficult to pick the three clubs you believe will be relegated with any kind of confidence. Norwich City look like they have left things too late, but the next month is going to be busy and with big games to be played every few days.

That is something that could be an issue for the FPL players particularly with the depth of squad that some of the top teams have. It is unprecedented times, but I will come onto my thoughts for GW33+ when I get my thoughts about this weekend's Premier League games out of the way first.


Norwich City v Brighton Pick: This is a very big game for bot Norwich City and Brighton with the three points on offer vital in their bids to avoid relegation.

Norwich City are 7 points from safety and look to be cut off now, but a win might just give the players a shot in the arm with five more games to play. The next three games are all against clubs in 15th or lower in the Premier League table so this is the last chance saloon for Daniel Farke's men who will likely have to target three wins if they want to have any chance of avoiding relegation.

Four points from a possible nine since the resumption of the Premier League has given Brighton a gap to the bottom three that may already be too big for those below them to bridge. A 6 point lead to the bottom three is a positive for Graham Potter's team, but Brighton have a difficult looking fixture list and the manager has to be targeting a win that would likely be enough to secure Premier League Football for another season.

Brighton have shown a little resiliency in recent games prior to the 0-3 defeat to Manchester United on Tuesday. They have earned back to back clean sheets at Wolves and Leicester City and not offered a lot of opportunities to those two teams, although Brighton have perhaps given up some of their attacking intent to be a little more solid.

In their three games played, chances have not been flowing for Brighton and I think the layers may have underestimated the chances of seeing a low scoring game here.

Neither Norwich City nor Brighton are playing with a lot of consistency in the final third which may make goals difficult to come by. While neither would be seen as a hugely successful defensive side, both Norwich City and Brighton have shown some toughness in those areas and I think that may see at least one clean sheet produced here.

I honestly would not be surprised if this fixture ended 1-0 either way with the way both Norwich City and Brighton are playing. The odds might not suggest it, but I think one, or both, of these teams will fail to hit the back of the net.


Leicester City v Crystal Palace Pick: A late stumble could prove to be very costly for Leicester City who have seen the likes of Chelsea, Manchester United and Wolves close in on their top four spot. At the turn of the calendar year Leicester City were very short odds to earn a Champions League spot for the 2020/21 season, but they had been struggling before the enforced break and Brendan Rodgers has not found the right formula for them yet.

Draws with Watford and Brighton followed by a defeat to Everton have knocked the confidence from the Leicester City players. The system employed looks like one that opponents are a little more comfortable dealing with and now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have been a stubborn opponent under Roy Hodgson.

Back to back losses might make Crystal Palace vulnerable, but they deserved a lot more than they got from the home defeat to Burnley. The 4-0 loss at Liverpool was surprising, but early injuries might have just taken the wind out of the sails and in general Crystal Palace are a competitive team.

This is a club who Brendan Rodgers won't have forgotten having seen his then Liverpool team blow a 0-3 lead in an eventual 3-3 draw at Selhurst Park that ultimately cost them the title in 2014.

And the Leicester City players won't have good memories of facing Crystal Palace either after losing 0-3 and 1-4 the last two times they have hosted them.

Leicester City were unfortunate to lose at Everton on the chances created, but they have been struggling in the final third out of the break. At the same time they have looked far from secure at the back and only a Kasper Schmeichel penalty save against Brighton has prevented them entering this fixture off the back of three straight defeats.

They won't find it easy against a Crystal Palace team that have limited chances against them by being well organised and looking to break with pace on the counter. The thumping at Liverpool is one poor result, but Crystal Palace had scored in 6 straight away games before that and on current form it is hard to see Leicester City blowing them away.

You have to believe the home team may edge it, but that's largely on the season whole form rather than on recent one. They have not created a lot of chances and Crystal Palace should be frustrating them for long periods and looking to add a third straight victory at the King Power Stadium.

It might be enough to secure a surprise result- Leicester City look far too short regardless here and a one goal defeat for Crystal Palace would at least return the stake.


Manchester United v Bournemouth Pick: Two of the most in-form teams in the Premier League look to be Wolves and Manchester United who are both closing in on the top four places in the table.

At this stage it would be a disappointment if Manchester United don't have enough to finish in the Champions League spots regardless of what happens to Manchester City and their two year ban from European Football.

A win at Brighton during the week was really encouraging from Manchester United who dominated from start to finish and deservedly won on the day. They have not always been at their best away from home so that was a huge victory for United and they should be able to build on that and win a third Premier League game in a row on Saturday.

On the face of things you wouldn't think much of that, but Manchester United have not won three consecutive Premier League games since January 2019 when Ole Gunnar Solskjaer inspired a 6 game winning run in the League having taken over from Jose Mourinho.

The fact it has not happened in 2019/20 is a concern, but Manchester United might be playing as well as they have at any stage at this moment in time. With Bruno Fernandes, Marcos Rashford, Paul Pogba, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood in the line up, Manchester United have plenty of creative talent and they have also won 4 in a row at Old Trafford while scoring 13 goals.

These players should be ready to take the game to a Bournemouth team who are coming in off the back of an embarrassing 1-4 home loss to Newcastle United. The fixtures make it difficult to see how Bournemouth can't get out of trouble without earning a couple of surprise results.

However there is a pressure on the players which will make it hard to use this a 'free hit' and Bournemouth will have a hard time containing Manchester United. They were narrowly beaten at Wolves last month, but Manchester United are showing a lot more creativity in the final third than their Champions League chasing rivals and I expect that to show up here.

Manchester United have beaten Watford and Sheffield United by 3-0 scorelines at Old Trafford either side of the three month break. If they can make a fast start as they have in their last couple of Premier League games I do think Manchester United will be too strong for Bournemouth here and they can win by a comfortable margin.

It is never easy to ask a team to clear this level of handicap, but Manchester United are playing well enough to believe they can secure another comfortable win on Saturday.


Wolves v Arsenal Pick: Both Wolves and Arsenal will be aiming for a return to European Football although it is the former who have realistic ambitions of playing in the Champions League next season.

It says a lot about how far Wolves have come under the guidance of Nuno Espirito Santo who had been linked with the vacant job at Arsenal before they turned to Mikel Arteta back in December.

The Portuguese manager has instilled a really attractive playing style at Wolves but he has also found the balance which makes them very difficult to beat. The three wins since the resumption of the Premier League has given Wolves momentum and each has come with a clean sheet, while the side have 5 clean sheets in a row at Molineux.

That should be tested by this Arsenal team who have won 4 of their last 6 away games in all competitions and who have won back to back games at Southampton and Sheffield United. Mikel Arteta has helped the team look a little better at the back, but Arsenal still have vulnerabilities and you do have to believe that this Wolves team will be well prepared to exploit those.

There is pace in the Wolves team and genuine quality in the final third and I think they are playing well enough to edge to a win here. They don't always create the most chances, but I do think Wolves will be able to do that against this Arsenal team and in Raul Jimenez they have a player who can be clinical when those chances come his way.

I have to respect the recent Arsenal performances since losing back to back games at Manchester City and Brighton. They were unfortunate to lose the second of those and they are a team who have plenty of pace and quality of their own in the final third which can make them dangerous.

Arsenal might not have won a lot of away games, but they haven't lost many either which has to be respected. However Wolves blew them away last season at Molineux and there looks to be enough consistency in the home squad to believe they can find the goals they need to win this one.

Fans of Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United won't be concerned if Wolves were to drop points, but Nuno Espirito Santo's men are playing with confidence and I think they can keep their top four ambitions alive and kicking with a good looking win here.


Chelsea v Watford Pick: The race for the top four looks like it is going to go down to the final day when Chelsea will be hosting Wolves, but they will be looking to bounce back from a shock defeat at West Ham United when they take the field this Saturday.

That defeat has once again opened the door for the likes of Manchester United and Wolves to earn their way into the top four and Chelsea could feel some real pressure by the time this game kicks off.

Depending on results, Chelsea may be as low as 6th in the Premier League table when they head out into an empty Stamford Bridge and that can cause problems for players. It is not easy to express yourselves when knowing how much is on the line, but Frank Lampard will likely shut off the televisions within the Stadium and ask his players to concentrate on their own matters.

Ultimately Chelsea will finish in the top four if they win their remaining six games and that is all the manager will be asking of his players. Take things one game at a time and make sure 100% is given to each fixture, especially as Wednesday night should have taught Chelsea that nothing can be taken for granted in the Premier League.

Chelsea have been better at Stamford Bridge of late and they are facing a Watford team who have looked a little short of confidence in their opening games since the resumption of play. The loss to Southampton at home is a real worry for Nigel Pearson and his Watford team have simply not been as strong on their travels as they have at Vicarage Road which makes that defeat all the more concerning.

The Hornets have not scored in their last 3 away Premier League games and have suffered losses each time. They have looked vulnerable at the back and Watford don't score enough goals which is going to make it very hard to earn the results they need, even if this is a 'nothing to lose' situation with all the pressure on their hosts.

However it may also be a game that Nigel Pearson chooses to rest key names in order to keep them fresh for the home games to come against Norwich City and Newcastle United over the coming days. That might give Chelsea a bit more momentum in a game they should be winning and I do think the home team will prove to be too strong.

Chelsea have not always looked convincing at the back this season, but they have been better in recent home games. That may play a part for a team who do create a lot of chances and I think it may help them win this one by a comfortable margin on the night to make sure they end this weekend in the top four at the least.


Burnley v Sheffield United Pick: Chris Wilder will have been very pleased to be on the right side of a controversial VAR decision which may have shifted the game against Tottenham Hotspur in favour of his Sheffield United team. Instead of conceding moments after taking the lead, Sheffield United were able to manage their 1-0 lead until late goals secured a comfortable win on the day.

It is a big win for Sheffield United who had lost 3 in a row prior to the game on Thursday evening. They had conceded at least twice in each of those losses which includes back to back 3-0 defeats at Newcastle United and Manchester United.

Sheffield United have not scored in their last 3 away Premier League games so that is something they need to address if they want to finish in the top seven and potentially earn a European spot for next season.

However they have not really created a lot of chances in those games either and it won't get much easier when they travel to Turf Moor to take on a Burnley team off consecutive League wins. Sean Dyche has done yet another fantastic job for Burnley and it would be a real blow to the club if the manager decides he is not going to be supported to help the club take the next step forward.

For now Sean Dyche is continuing to do his job and the players are clearly behind him judging by the hard work they have put into the last two games. Both have ended in 1-0 wins for Burnley against Watford and Crystal Palace and this is a ground on which Burnley have really found some of their best football in terms of results and chances created.

The absence of some key attacking players is an issue for Burnley, but they may still have a slight edge over Sheffield United with the few extra days of rest in the legs.

Both teams will work hard and look to exploit set pieces to give themselves the edge, but I think Burnley might be in a better spot to earn the points. In their home games either side of the three month break, Burnley have created a lot of chances with a system that the players are familiar with and that might be problematic for Sheffield United who have looked vulnerable in all 3 away games played since the resumption of play.

The win over Tottenham Hotspur will give Sheffield United some confidence, but I think the narrow edge has to be given to Burnley in this early Sunday kick off in the Premier League.


Newcastle United v West Ham United Pick: There is no doubt that the points on offer in this Premier League game are much more important to West Ham United than Newcastle United, but that does not mean that the home team are going to want to roll over.

Steve Bruce wants the players to prove they deserve to be playing for the club going forward and especially if new owners are willing to open the chequebook for the club. There is also an outside chance that Newcastle United could push for a European spot with a strong finish, but ultimately all Bruce wants to see his team playing hard.

The 1-4 win at Bournemouth shows this is a team capable of doing that and Newcastle United have also been very difficult to beat at home. They have not conceded many goals here and Newcastle United have players that can create chances which is going to be a problem for West Ham United who have struggled defensively.

At least West Ham United will be playing with a lot more confidence having shown what they are capable of in their 3-2 win over Chelsea on Wednesday. It was a real surprise to see West Ham United play as well as they did that day considering how poorly they have begun in the resumption of Premier League Football and the three points earned could be vital in their bid to avoid the drop.

David Moyes will believe his team have something to build upon here, but West Ham United have lost 7 away Premier League games in a row. They have given up a lot of chances in that run and Newcastle United are good enough to take advantage too.

I can't help feel the home team would be a much bigger favourite if this game was played before the Wednesday night results. West Ham United did win here last season, which has to be respected, but they have struggled for away goals and are still missing some important pieces.

I expect some issues will be something David Moyes will want to address in the transfer window, but at this moment I think it will be difficult for West Ham United. They invested a lot in the game on Wednesday and it might be tough for the players to reach those standards again.

Newcastle United have been strong at home which makes it hard to see them losing and I do think they may earn a narrow victory here to keep European hopes alive for a few more days.


Liverpool v Aston Villa Pick: Jurgen Klopp was not impressed by the questions he received from the media at the end of the 4-0 defeat to Manchester City on Thursday and the manager is one that won't allow his Liverpool team to drop their standards now the title has been secured.

Ultimately the next month is about preparing for the defence of that tile which will begin in September and I have no doubt that Klopp will be demanding a much stronger all around performance.

In public he was not very critical of his players, but I imagine Klopp will have been seething about the embarrassing defeat for a couple of days. This is the first time Liverpool will play at Anfield as Champions and even without the fans you have to expect the whole club wants to mark that occasion in the right way.

Even before the suspension of English Football, Liverpool had been producing contrasting performances at home and away. The defeat to Manchester City means they have gone 5 away games without scoring a goal, but Liverpool have won 13 in a row at Anfield in normal time and crushed Crystal Palace 4-0 here since the resumption of play.

The venue and the need for redemption for the home team does not bode well for Aston Villa who are desperate for the points to help them move out of the bottom three. West Ham United's win over Chelsea on Wednesday has put more pressure on Aston Villa who have not won any of 9 games in all competitions and have been beaten 7 times in that run.

It should be noted that Aston Villa have looked a little more stubborn defensively coming out of the break than they had before the suspension of the League. That could be key in turning the results they need, but a lack of goals is a concern and I think they will have a difficult day on Sunday.

Liverpool do look like a team that will have too much in the final third for their visitors and I think that may lead to a relatively comfortable win when all is said and done. They will have a lot to prove after Thursday and Liverpool have been strong here all season which leads me to believe they can not only win this fixture, but do so by a couple of goals at the least.

More than half of Aston Villa's away defeats in the Premier League have come by two or more goal margins and I do think that will be the case here.


Southampton v Manchester City Pick: Nothing could be gained in terms of the Premier League title race in 2019/20, but Manchester City clearly came out on Thursday to make a statement to the new Champions Liverpool. You could see it in the faces of the players when performing the 'guard of honour' for their visitors and manager Pep Guardiola couldn't get away quick enough either.

The 4-0 win for Manchester City has set the statement for next season that they will be expecting to be much closer to the top spot.

Even this season the underlying numbers suggest Manchester City haven't had a lot of luck on their side, but Pep Guardiola will know some additions will need to be made to bolster the squad.

That is something that both Manchester City and Southampton will be preparing behind the scenes, but on Sunday they will go with what they have. Manchester City's poor away run in the Premier League is a real surprise, but this is a team who have been creating chances and playing some very good football out of the resumption of play and the next few weeks is all about building momentum for the FA Cup and Champions League challenges ahead.

Having played on Thursday you do have to believe that Manchester City will make changes to freshen things up and some big names will be ready to come in. Even with those changes this is a very strong team and one that will give Southampton plenty of problems, especially at St Mary's where The Saints have simply not performed as well as they would have liked.

You have to respect this team though because not many would have recovered from the 0-9 home loss to Leicester City in the manner that they did. A lot of credit has to be given to manager Ralph Hasenhuttl too who has not moved away from his principles and that has led to the best season since 2016/17 having flirted with relegation in the last two.

Southampton will attack with pace and in Danny Ings they have someone who can punish Manchester City if the visitors are not at their best.

However this Southampton team have had some problems defensively which the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal have exploited in visits here either side of the three month break. Manchester City are a much better attacking outfit than both and I do think there will be enough attacking talent on display to lead to a comfortable win for the visitors.

In 2 of their last 3 visits to St Mary's Manchester City have scored three times and that has led to comfortable wins. I expect Southampton to play a part here, but Manchester City can back up the success over Liverpool by producing a good win on Sunday evening.


Tottenham Hotspur v Everton Pick: The final game of this round of Premier League fixtures comes from Tottenham Hotspur's shiny new Stadium, although there are dark clouds gathering over this part of North London.

The arrival of Jose Mourinho as manager was supposed to spark a squad that many felt were underachieving, but they head into this fixture in 9th place in the Premier League table and behind rivals Arsenal. The table may look considerably worse for Tottenham Hotspur fans at kick off, but Jose Mourinho will be demanding a big reaction to the 3-1 loss at Sheffield United on Thursday night.

His task is to make sure the players refocus after some miserable defending in the defeat at Bramall Lane, while also making better decisions in the final third. A bit of luck that was missing in the last game won't go amiss either, but Tottenham Hotspur will know they need to be at their best to beat an Everton team who have performed very well under Carlo Ancelotti.

Everton are unbeaten in 3 Premier League games out of the restart and have won back to back fixtures, although they were clinging on at the end of their 2-1 win over Leicester City. The manager will be pleased with the three points which has reinvigorated Everton's challenge for a top seven finish, but it is games like this one they will need to win in order to achieve the aims set out by Ancelotti.

The last trip to London ended in a miserable 4-0 loss for Everton, but prior to that they were very unlucky to lose 3-2 at Arsenal. The potential absence of Richarlison would hurt, but if the Brazilian is ready to go this is an Everton team who have created chances wherever they have played.

However they are not all that convincing at the back and the attacking options open to Tottenham Hotspur should have some spaces to exploit. Despite the loss on Thursday, Spurs did show some good intent when getting forward and you have to believe they will make better decisions in this one.

Games between these clubs in recent years have been action packed and many have ended up with three or more goals shared out. There were enough chances for that to be the outcome in their 1-1 draw earlier this season, but the previous 5 between Tottenham Hotspur and Everton have ended with at least three goals scored.

4 of the last 5 hosted by Spurs have ended the same way and I do think both teams will have their chances to score in this one. The three points are key for both clubs so neither manager is expected to settle for a point and it could lead to another high-scoring game between these teams on Monday Night Football.

MY PICKS: Norwich City-Brighton BTTS NO
Crystal Palace + 1 Asian Handicap
Manchester United - 2 Asian Handicap
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United + 0.25 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Tottenham Hotspur-Everton Over 2.5 Goals



Fantasy Football GameWeek 33+
It was not the best week for the FPL game as I missed on my Captain and got very little from a number of the selected players.

At least I managed to hold onto two transfers to use this week, the one in which I am playing my Bench Boost with the top teams all facing clubs they should be beating.

My concerns come from the likelihood that teams will be rotating their squads, but that is why I am sticking with the same Captain I have used for the last two weeks. Anthony Martial should start for Manchester United who have Bournemouth to come to Old Trafford and I am expecting more from a player who didn't play a big part in the 0-3 win at Brighton in the last GameWeek, at least not from a Fantasy point of view.

Injuries and loss of form makes the two transfers fairly easy to make as Harvey Barnes and Joelinton will be removed from my team. The former looks a little out of favour at Leicester City who are also not showing a lot of positive form, while the latter picked up a knock during the week and may not be available on Sunday anyway.

I do wonder if the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Roberto Firmino and Mason Mount will get the minutes I would like from a Bench Boost Chip, but I can't really do much about the situation with games being played every few days. I would be disappointed if they didn't all get some time on the pitch this weekend, although it would be preferable for Fantasy purposes that all start against 'weak' opponents.


Well things were supposed to be that simple until news broke that Bruno Fernandes may be a doubt for the game against Bournemouth. Reports have suggested he came off worse in a collision with Paul Pogba and both players are doubtful for the home game and that does cloud my thinking.

It may be reasonable to wait until Saturday morning before a final decision is made, but it is possible that I am going to take a hit to remove the two players I mentioned and also to replace a player that may not take part.

Like I've mentioned, I do think this is the best week in which to use the Bench Boost and so I am going to play with these options and make a final decision in the morning ahead of the 11:30am deadline.


There are players that can come in and make a difference with the likes of Phil Foden, Allan Saint-Maximin, Dwight Gayle, Marcus Rashford, David Silva, Christian Pulisic, Willian and Tammy Abraham looking like they can make a difference to the team, but again it may be best to check my Twitter page and see how my final thoughts break down.


Overall I am pretty happy with the squad going into a Bench Boost week- the defence has every chance of returning a number of clean sheets and I do feel I am in a position to have all fifteen players return some points.

The squad is looking like this before my final transfers have been made:

GK: Alisson, Emiliano Martinez

DEF: Harry Maguire, Virgil Van Dijk, Justin James, Willy Boly, Federico Fernandez

MID: Anthony Martial, Bruno Fernandes, Harvey Barnes, Mason Mount, Kevin De Bruyne

FWD: Raul Jimenez, Roberto Firmino, Joelinton

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