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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Saturday, 25 July 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 26th)

The final day of the Premier League season is here... But the decision has already been made that the 2020/21 season will begin on September 12th.

Before that there is the small matter of concluding the Championship Play Offs, the Europa League and Champions League Knock Out ties and the FA Cup Final which will all be played in the next month. It does mean some teams will have a very short amount of time to prepare for the new season and the players will have a limited break before they asked to come back and get ready to go again.

The 2020/21 season looks like it is going to be tightly packed in when you think the Euro 2020 tournament will begin on June 11th and knowing that domestic seasons will have to be wrapped up before then. The FA Cup Final is almost certainly going to be played before the season ends on May 23rd and I think we will soon hear that the Replays have been scrapped and those involved in European competitions will be exempt from taking part in the League Cup for one season.

It has to be done and it is going to be a difficult time for managers especially with the loaded Christmas schedule in England and the likely removal of the Winter Break for a season too. The Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches are to played on consecutive weeks with the only breaks being for Nations League fixtures and I do wonder if the Euro 2020 tournament will suffer as so many of the top players are effectively going to be played for almost eleven months straight when that event gets going.


Things will shape up interestingly over the coming months, while fans who have Season Tickets for clubs, like myself, are wondering when we will be allowed back in Stadiums. It is almost a certainty that crowds will be limited and phased back, but for a club like Manchester United with over 40,000 Season Ticket Holders it is much more difficult to know how they can appease everybody.

Away fans are almost certainly going to be excluded from Stadiums until the next calendar year and watching on TV is simply not the same experience for many of us.


It is all about safety though and I wouldn't be keen on returning to 70,000 plus spectators packed into Stadiums as soon as October, especially not knowing what a second spike in Coronavirus cases are going to look like before we get a vaccine or at least something that reduces symptoms.

So for now we have to take what we can and simply having sports to enjoy is not something we should be taking for granted after the developments this year.


Onto the final day of the Premier League and the final Fantasy Football GameWeek of the prolonged season- you will see my thoughts about GW38+ below.

Before that you can read how I think the final round of fixtures will progress which is also going to play a huge part on how I use my Free Hit Chip.


Arsenal v Watford PickIt is a little under three years ago when Troy Deeney questioned the 'cajones' of the Arsenal team that had just blown a lead and lost 2-1 at Vicarage Road. This comment has helped increase the rivalry between the clubs, but Arsenal have responded by beating Watford three times in a row since then and were 0-2 up at Vicarage Road before settling for a 2-2 draw earlier this season.

Some things have changed at the Emirates Stadium, but there are enough players left over from October 2017 who would be looking to show Deeney that Arsenal have got plenty of fight in them.

The bonus is that a home win would likely be good enough to relegate Watford to the Championship and coming off the defeat to Aston Villa it would be ironic for Deeney and his team-mates if Arsenal are the team who effectively sent them down by losing to their relegation rivals and then beating Watford themselves.

There isn't much for Arsenal to play for which is contributing to their price, but Mikel Arteta will be demanding a reaction to the defeat at Villa Park. Poor finishing let them down that day, but Arsenal have been better at the Emirates Stadium where they have won 5 of their last 7 in the Premier League and the players are fighting for FA Cup Final places which should be motivation enough.

Just because Watford 'need' the points more than Arsenal it doesn't mean the motivation is necessarily higher in the away dressing room. The Cup Final is motivation enough for Arsenal and the Watford players have admitted confidence is not in a great place after the 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City and losing manager Nigel Pearson so late in the campaign after he gave them every chance to avoid the drop.

Watford have lost 5 away Premier League games in a row and have only scored a single goal in that run, that being a consolation at West Ham United. They were blown away in the first half that day and Arsenal will be hard to pull back if the home team can take advantage of any slow beginning Watford make in this one.

The Hornets have lost their last 2 visits to the Emirates Stadium and I do think Arsenal will be too good for them on Sunday too. There wasn't a lot of fight in the Watford team in their last couple of Premier League games and I do think Arsenal have been stronger at home under Mikel Arteta and they have the strong attacking players that can take this game away from their visitors.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: A strong season comes to a close for both Burnley and Brighton on Sunday and there really isn't a lot to play for.

Games like this can be surprisingly entertaining as neither team has anything to lose, but I think the motivation in the home dressing room may be a touch higher than in normal circumstances. This season there are rumours that Sean Dyche will be managing his last game for Burnley at Turf Moor and that should have the players looking to end the season on a high and let the directors and board know they want Dyche to be kept around.

Burnley are unbeaten in 6 at Turf Moor, although 4 of those fixtures have ended in draws.

The draw might be a big player for those looking at trends considering Brighton have drawn 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games too and it does make this a difficult fixture to get a good read on.

My edge has to be with Burnley who don't concede a lot of goals but seem to create chances at Turf Moor. However Brighton do play attractive football and they will want to get forward and challenge a Burnley team who have conceded a single goal in 3 of their last 4 home games.

Honestly I can see this fixture going a number of different ways, but the home team players look like good shouts for those who want a cheap defender to throw into their Fantasy teams in GW38+.


Chelsea v Wolves PickThis is a huge game for both Chelsea and Wolves and the onus is largely on Wolves to get on the front foot and try and win the game.

Both teams are chasing European berths, the former in the Champions League and the latter in the Europa League, but Chelsea can afford a draw to achieve their ambitions. A draw is less rewarding for Wolves who would need Tottenham Hotspur to fail to win at Crystal Palace to earn a Europa League spot.

Otherwise a fall into 7th place will mean Wolves will need Chelsea to beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final or have to win the Europa League next month to return to European Football which is very important to the development of the club.

Wolves won't be intimidated by having to win here and they will be encouraged by some of the recent defensive performances produced by Chelsea. The Blues are susceptible to good set pieces and Wolves are very capable of exposing them there, while Raul Jimenez continues to make use of limited spaces to find the back of the net.

It certainly wouldn't be in Frank Lampard's thinking to play for the draw which would guarantee Chelsea a top half finish. In recent games they might have defended poorly, but they have looked a real menace going forward and I expect Lampard will be looking for his team to take the game to Wolves and secure their place in the premier European competition behind a strong performance.

They created plenty in their 5-3 loss at Liverpool during the week and I do think Chelsea can have some positive moments in this fixture too. The attacking players will feel they can break down what is a stubborn Wolves team and the situation may see both teams having to 'go for broke' at different times during the ninety minutes.

2 of the last 3 games between these clubs have finished with at least three goals shared out and I think that is the direction this fixture will go. Chelsea are plenty short despite the fact they have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge, but they do score goals here and Wolves will feel the fact they have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions will see them create chances here.

Things may really open up in the second half and I think it will be one of the higher scoring fixtures of the final day.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur PickThere might not be much for Crystal Palace to play for in the final game of the 2019/20 season, but Roy Hodgson will be urging his players to produce one more big effort and snap their 7 game losing run in the Premier League.

It is a big ask of a small squad which has been decimated by injury and suspension and the problems in defence have become too much for Crystal Palace to cover up. They have been conceding goals for fun in the last month and Crystal Palace have lost 3 in a row at Selhurst Park while conceding at least twice to Chelsea and Manchester United.

That is not the kind of form you want to be displaying when coming up against Harry Kane and Tottenham Hotspur who are ending the season surging towards the Europa League. A win on Sunday might be enough for Spurs to be back in European competition in the 2020/21 season and Jose Mourinho has made it clear he wants to be involved as it gives him a chance to make use of his squad and offer another avenue back into the Champions League.

Back to back wins while scoring three times will be a huge confidence boost for Tottenham Hotspur and Harry Kane has scored four times in those wins over Newcastle United and Leicester City. The win at St James' Park ended a poor away run and will have given Tottenham Hotspur plenty of belief they can secure another victory on Sunday.

Playing a team with the issues Crystal Palace have should be perfect for Tottenham Hotspur and Kane being in form should give the visitors a big edge. They have won 4 Premier League games in succession at Selhurst Park and I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have enough attacking outlets to secure a win here while continuing the poor trend of conceding goals that Crystal Palace have had of late.


Everton v Bournemouth Pick: Things have become very clear for Bournemouth after their 0-2 home defeat to Southampton was followed by Aston Villa beating Arsenal at Villa Park.

Now they need both Watford and Aston Villa to lose and at the same time win at Goodison Park- even then it will come down to goal difference.

Ultimately Bournemouth have to get forward and score goals to have any chance of extending their stay in the Premier League and that could leave them very open to an Everton team who have a long unbeaten run at Goodison Park to protect. The home players can't afford to take things easy with Carlo Ancelotti making it clear he is analysing the squad and looking to improve it between seasons.

That should keep Everton interested and they may have spaces to exploit when Bournemouth begin to get desperate and chase the game. I think that will make the difference on the day as Everton use their quality in the final third to just create enough chances against this porous Bournemouth defence to allow them to finish the season with a positive victory behind them.

Everton have not finished the season in the manner the manager would have wanted, but the win at Sheffield United last Monday suggests they have enough motivation to win this one too.


Leicester City v Manchester United PickIt feels like none of the three teams chasing two Champions League places in the Premier League have really wanted to finish in those places as they keep slipping up when opportunities have been presented to them.

Going into the final day it is Chelsea and Manchester United who control their own destinies, but both clubs are facing difficult fixtures against 'upstarts' who want to get into the European places too.

Manchester United visit the King Power Stadium and I think both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Brendan Rodgers would take being in this position going into the final day.

Brendan Rodgers will know his Leicester City should have secured a top four place, but back in August he would have very much signed up for having to win their final home game to earn Champions League Football. The form over the last several months has not been good enough, but Leicester City have won their last 2 games here as they look to bounce back from a very disappointing 3-0 loss in North London at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.

Beating Crystal Palace and Sheffield United with clean sheets will give Leicester City some belief at home, while this is a team who have created some very good chances in recent games. That is a marked improvement to last month when Leicester City were struggling to create chances, and Rodgers will believe his team can expose what has been a vulnerable Manchester United defence over the last two weeks.

In saying that Manchester United have kept 3 away clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and they have scored at least twice in each of those games to secure wins. Those have come at Brighton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and Manchester United have had some fortune in those matches to turn things in their favour.

The 1-1 draw with West Ham United during the week does mean the onus is on Leicester City to get forward and that should be something that Manchester United look to exploit. The front three will have more space than they had against The Hammers and it is all about making good decisions in the final third against a Leicester City team who are missing key personnel in defensive areas.

The first goal could be huge and it will open up the game with the teams chasing results barring news coming through that Wolves are winning by a wide margin at Stamford Bridge. In that case they could both settle for a convenient draw, but I would expect the match to start off fairly open as both Leicester City and Manchester United look for the goals to put them in a strong position regardless of what is going on in West London.

Both teams have been creating chances at home/away respectively and there is some tiredness and fatigue which is perhaps making life more difficult for the defenders to contain their attacking opponents.

I do think both will have chances to score and the 1-1 might be suitable if Wolves are winning well going into the final twenty minutes. I do think that is unlikely to be the case so both managers will be looking to secure their top four berth by finding the result they need and I think goals could be the outcome of this one too.

In the last couple of seasons games between these teams have tended to be relatively competitive and low-scoring, but the situation is clear for both and the need to score goals could open things up. A late goal either way is not out of the question if one has to chase and I think there are enough strong attacking players that can make the difference for their team.


Manchester City v Norwich City PickThis is one of the Premier League games with nothing riding on it on the final day of the season, but Manchester City should be plenty motivated to keep the momentum going before they face Real Madrid in the Champions League.

The 0-4 win over Watford on Tuesday shows the side are not going to ease into the end of the Premier League campaign, while not many associated with the club will have forgotten losing to Norwich City in September 2019.

It was the best performance of the season from Daniel Farke's side, but as the months have progressed it has become clear that Norwich City are not really cut out for this level. They are going to finish bottom of the pile and Norwich City have lost 9 Premier League games in a row and only managed to score a single goal in that time.

Expecting them to hurt Manchester City is a big ask, and it is going to be a long day trying to contain a team who are looking to move back into the Champions League with some momentum behind them.

The worry for Norwich City has to be how Manchester City have flowed through the gears when they have gotten in front in games since the resumption of play. The likes of Burnley, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Brighton and Watford have all been seen off by four or more goal margins, while Bournemouth were 2-0 down before half time in the last game at the Etihad Stadium.

Granted Bournemouth at least fought back and deserved more than they got, but Norwich City have not shown an ability to do that in recent months. The Canaries have not been blown away too often and only narrowly lost at Stamford Bridge in their last away Premier League game, but Liverpool, Manchester United, Wolves and Arsenal have all beaten Norwich City by three or more goals at home this season.

On current form it is very difficult to imagine this not being a one-sided home win and I do think Norwich City could have a very long day in the office if they fall behind early in this one. Manchester City will want to earn a measure of revenge for the away loss at Norwich City and they will want to give David Silva a strong sending off in his last Premier League game for the club.

They should have far too much for their visitors on Sunday and Manchester City likely win by a very comfortable margin.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: If this was part of the fixture list in September or October you would likely lean to a comfortable Liverpool win, but the team have not finished the season with a flourish.

A 5-3 home win over Chelsea shows that Liverpool have far from downed tools, but the team have struggled for consistency away from home. That is going to have to be factored into this one, although the injuries in the Newcastle United squad does make the home team vulnerable too.

Tottenham Hotspur recently won 1-3 here and I do think Liverpool will pick a strong team, although it is hard to really select any of their assets for the Fantasy game. Liverpool have not defended well enough to really want to pick one of those players at a premium price, while the front three have been rotated and none are showing consistent form in the final third.

I still think Liverpool will have too much, but it is a more difficult game to read as players begin to think about their short break before they begin preparing for the 2020/21 season. I expect the away team to win pretty handily on the day, but Newcastle United shouldn't roll over and I expect a challenge from them.

Ultimately I expect an away win on the day and likely one by a comfortable enough margin to clear the handicap.


Southampton v Sheffield United Pick: Two teams who have had very strong seasons meet on the final day and both Southampton and Sheffield United should want to produce some football to celebrate how well the season has gone for them.

Both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Chris Wilder will be looking for one more big effort from the players before a short break and the end of season form has been decent enough from both to expect a good outing.

However, Southampton have been a little more consistent and I would give them the edge over a Sheffield United team who have missed out on European Football over the last few days.

Southampton have not played as well at St Mary's as they have away from home which raises some doubts as to whether they can finish the campaign with another win. They are facing a Sheffield United team who have lost their last two games without scoring a goal and who have looked a little leggy in recent games.

It should be competitive and perhaps even a fun fixture with both teams looking to attack, but my narrow lean is with Southampton and Danny Ings perhaps edging close to picking up the Golden Boot.


West Ham United v Aston Villa PickFor a number of weeks most would have pointed to this final day fixture as being a pivotal one in terms of the relegation places in the Premier League.

Unsurprisingly it has remained the case for Aston Villa, but West Ham United have secured Premier League Football by picking up 11 points from their last 18 available. They are mathematically secure of top flight football after the 1-1 draw at Manchester United during the week, but West Ham United will be looking for a strong end to the campaign with the momentum needed to have a much brighter beginning to the 2020/21 season coming up.

The side have won 3 of their last 5 at the London Stadium and West Ham United have been creating a lot of chances in those fixtures as they built some confidence.

It is not what Aston Villa would want to hear, but Dean Smith has to be very pleased with his team who have secured 7 points from a possible 9 to move out of the bottom three in the Premier League table. That will have given his players confidence as they hold a narrow edge over Watford and will feel matching whatever result achieved by The Hornets at the Emirates Stadium will be enough to secure survival.

A defeat will leave Aston Villa vulnerable to Bournemouth too, but a draw would likely be a result they will take right now. Only a Watford win at Arsenal would relegate Aston Villa in that situation, but I do think the layers are perhaps overestimating the visitors just because they 'need' the points more than their hosts.

West Ham United are playing well and Aston Villa are a team that can lack goals. If the home team get one you would find it hard to believe they are going to lose this game and I think there may even come a point where Aston Villa would settle for that result, but I do believe the more likely winner is the home team even if the odds don't say the same.

Aston Villa have not won any of their last 11 away games in all competitions and have not beaten West Ham United in East London in their last 4 attempts to do so. Earlier this season it ended in a goalless draw at Villa Park and I do think West Ham United showed enough at Old Trafford to believe they won't be lying down for their visitors on Sunday afternoon.

The home team should be good enough to avoid defeat at the least and that will at least leave the door open for a surprising end to the season in terms of the relegation places.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap
Chelsea-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Everton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap
West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap



Fantasy Football GameWeek 38+
GameWeek 37+ could not have been much more miserable for the Fantasy team I selected as the prolonged reliance on the Liverpool defence came back to bite me.

Manchester United also were a big letdown and are now involved in a huge game at Leicester City as they bid to return to the Champions League, while the lack of returns from the Manchester City assets despite a 0-4 win at Watford has to sting.

It was frustrating, but I can still win a number of localised Leagues and also want to break back into the top 100K for the season by ending the campaign with the Free Hit Chip being used.


My Free Hit seems to be easy to use- I want to fill up with Manchester City assets playing Norwich City at home and also use the Tottenham Hotspur players at injury hit Crystal Palace in a game they have to win.

Filling in the gaps will determine how much I can invest in other areas, but you can see some of my thinking below in the knowledge that I will be making changes right up until the 3pm deadline on Sunday afternoon.


I did have David Silva in my original thinking, but there is this fear that he could be brought off at 21 minutes with a 'guard of honour' on his final appearance for Manchester City in the Premier League. Otherwise I would expect him to have every chance to take all of the direct free kicks and penalties that may come City's way even though Raheem Sterling is chasing down a milestone in the League.

I think Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne will both play to maintain some rhythm ahead of the big Champions League game against Real Madrid. Riyad Mahrez didn't start on Tuesday and is expected to return, while Gabriel Jesus is another who needs the confidence boost of starting and scoring goals so all four players are in my thinking.


For Tottenham Hotspur the three players I am most considering are Serge Aurier, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane. You have to feel for Aurier who had a personal heartache earlier this month when his brother was killed in France, but he has continued to play and is a potential assist maker, while playing a goal-shy Crystal Palace has to help.

Harry Kane has scored four goals in two League games and will lead the line again, while Lucas Moura could be a cheap option in the midfield against a team who have conceded at least three times in three home games in a row.


Christian Pulisic, Raul Jimenez, Jamie Vardy, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are all options in what I feel will be high-scoring games.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could have more spaces to exploit against a Bournemouth team chasing goals, while Michail Antonio and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have home games against relegation threatened clubs that may have to take chances at some point too.


My thinking on the final day is to not spend too much on the defensive players on what is usually a high-scoring round. Teams are not concentrating as much as they would be earlier in the season and with the upcoming break for many I do think there will be less desire to keep the ball out of the net for many.

There are some cheap options out there which enables me to pick a very strong front seven that could at least help produce a big week.

I will update this thread around 2pm on Sunday with a few final thoughts about how the squad is shaping up, but it does look a week in which there are a number of players that could provide big points if at their best.


[UPDATE] As we enter the final hour of the final GW of the 2019/20 season this is the time to try and avoid overthinking things.

There are going to be rumours about 'breaking' team news and you also have to accept there will be some strange selections made by the managers who have less to play for. With that in mind I am trying to keep those having something to play for onside and that includes Manchester City preparing for a Champions League tie in less than two weeks time.

My final decision looks to be going 'weak' at the back with cheap options to make up the three and then hit the front seven as hard as possible. I will keep a couple of good subs on the bench in case of changes by managers and hopefully it will be a strong end to the season.

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