Many are beginning to return in a new look and that is the case for the NBA who have decided to send their remaining twenty-two teams to a 'bubble' in Florida where the remaining regular season games and the PlayOffs will all be played.
It isn't going to be the same as previous years even if the format for the post-season is going to be what we have become accustomed to seeing- no home court advantage surely opens the door for a number of teams to perhaps surprise their way into a Championship success.
Going into the resumption of play I would still be very surprised if one of the two Los Angeles teams is not playing in the NBA Finals, but the Eastern Conference looks more difficult to predict. No fans and no home court advantage is going to level up the playing field and I do think the regular season games to be played will be a good indicator of which teams are going to cope with things best.
Eventually I do think the cream will rise to the top as players become used to the surroundings, but it will be interesting to see and I will admit it is very welcoming to have more live sports back in our lives. It sounds a little sad that so many can't cope without it, but sports is the great relief to everyday life and I do think the post-season of both the NBA and NHL will be bringing the drama that only sporting events can.
I will place all of the regular season picks from the next two weeks in this one thread before we get into a potential Play In situation.
Personally I would have loved to have seen the NBA take a risk with the format for these unprecedented times and perhaps set up a World Cup kind of format for the post-season, but ultimately Adam Silver and the players likely preferred the regular PlayOff setting to try and keep things as normal as possible.
It was a chance for the NBA, but the bigger concern is making sure everyone involved remains healthy and the teams can compete without fear during a time when cases in the United States continue to produce eye-watering, sad numbers.
I hope that is the least we see over the coming weeks and nothing like the outbreak already witnessed in the Major League Baseball season. From there we can enjoy the Basketball as the short run towards the PlayOffs begins on Thursday 30th July and then it is onto the fun of the post-season.
Thursday 30th July
Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick
The decision was made to use a 'bubble' at Disney World in Florida and that means there is going to be a new look to the PlayOffs and the end of the regular season.
While the format remains the same for the post-season, the fact that all games will be played in neutral settings does remove the need for travel and perhaps having to deal with the same issues that have popped up very early on in the Major League Baseball season which recently got underway.
One change in the PlayOff format is the chance for the Number 9 Seed in either Conference to have an opportunity to 'play in' to the post-season with the regular season cut short. It looks unlikely to be used in the Eastern Conference with only the Washington Wizards invited along who are not in the PlayOff spots, but the Western Conference has five teams looking to chase down the Number 8 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies and at least have a shot at beating them out for the final place in the PlayOffs.
There are some decent looking teams looking to do that knowing if they finish the regular season within 4 games of the Number 8 Seed that they will get an opportunity to make the post-season. One of those is the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) who won two in a row back in March and who will open the NBA regular season bubble on Thursday.
Zion Williamson is the big name with the young Pelicans roster who are looking to make a point having traded away Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers before the season began. The irony is that the Pelicans would be looking to upset Davis' new team if they can make the PlayOffs and the Pelicans had won eight of their previous thirteen games to earn some positive momentum.
However, it has been made clear that the Pelicans feel the future is more important than the present and that means they are going to be careful with their young players. Instead of taking risks, the Pelicans will make sure the minutes are well spread to build experience which will put the team on a good platform for the years ahead when they will be looking to win a Championship.
There are some doubts about whether Williamson can participate in this opening game having recently returned to the bubble after being given permission to attend a family matter. He is only just out of quarantine and it feels the minutes will be restricted in a best case scenario.
Offensively New Orleans are a strong looking team, but Zion Williamson is already a leader for this young team and it will be a much tougher game for them without him. They did win all of their scrimmages getting ready for the restart, while the Pelicans are capable of plenty of energy around the boards to at least force second chance points, but this is far from an easy opening game.
The Pelicans take on the Utah Jazz (41-23) who have already secured a PlayOff spot, but who will be looking to perhaps improve their current Number 4 Seed in the days ahead. They are only 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers as the Number 2 Seed, but it is a tightly congested portion of the standings and a strong end or a poor one could see a vast difference in their final position.
It is also going to be a test of the chemistry of the Jazz who saw a falling out between key players Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell thanks to some of the most ridiculous actions you will have seen from anybody in the public eye. Those actions have to be attributed to Gobert's foolishness having dismissed the virus affecting the world and deciding he would touch all of the reporters and team mates' belongings without a care in the world.
Things changed for Gobert when he tested positive for Covid-19 and the strained relationship between himself and Mitchell came about after it was revealed the latter had also picked up the infection. It was largely blamed on Gobert's disregard for advice given to the public, but both players are entering the bubble trying to focus on their basketball rather than off court issues.
Judging by Rudy Gobert's comments, it feels like the Jazz are largely back on the same page now although they are going to be missing Bojan Bogdanovic for the remainder of the season. The sharpshooter was the second highest scorer on the roster and a serious threat from the three point range, but a wrist injury needed surgery and he will be replaced by Joe Ingles in the starting line up.
There is still confidence that Utah can be a real threat in the post-season having seen Ingles and Mike Conley playing well in scrimmages, but the intensity will be different now. Utah do have a good Defensive unit which always keeps them in games though and if those two players can find their range it should make Gobert and Mitchell big threats for the Jazz from an Offensive point of view.
Utah's big man might have been responsible for the decision to shut down the NBA when it was made, but the Jazz had been surging in a positive direction before that. The Jazz have won five of their last six games and they have already beaten the New Orleans Pelicans twice in three meetings in 2019/20.
All three games were high-scoring affairs, but the rustiness of coming out in the bubble is hard to factor into this game. If there is any, the Utah Jazz are the stronger team Defensively and that could give them the edge in a game in which it feels like they are set as the underdog because it 'means more' to the New Orleans Pelicans.
The early games in the NBA might need some watching too, but the Utah Jazz do hold a 9-4-1 record against the spread in their last fourteen against the New Orleans Pelicans. With Zion Williamson arguably still building up towards his peak levels, I think Utah will find enough scoring from the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley to edge to an upset win.
Utah are 6-0 against the spread in recent games set as the underdog and I think they can keep this one close at the least.
Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick
Nothing has really changed over the course of the season and the Los Angeles Lakers (49-14) and the Los Angeles Clippers (44-20) are set to open up against one another on the first day of the new look bubble of the NBA. Home court advantage would not have been important when the Lakers and Clippers were likely to meet in the PlayOffs, but the neutral setting of the remainder of the season does take away from the Lakers who are set to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.
That makes other Series on the way to the NBA Finals look potentially more dangerous and in the last eight games of the regular season it would need something miraculous to happen if the Lakers were to blow their 5.5 game lead at the top of the Conference.
Things are a touch more murky for the Los Angeles Clippers who will be desperate to finish with either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed in the Conference. It would guarantee avoiding playing the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals and they are 3 games ahead of the Utah Jazz in the current Number 4 spot, although the First Round Series is going to be a tough one for the Clippers no matter how things end.
Both teams have lost some key players ahead of the resumption of play with Avery Bradley being the most notable for opting out of the season. The Lakers also going to begin without Rajon Rondo, who has an injury, but they have been able to sign the likes of Dion Waiters and JR Smith to make up for the losses and boost the bench.
On the other side the Los Angeles Clippers are likely going to be missing Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell who both had to leave the bubble. Better news comes from the likely suiting up of Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, while the break will have given the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard a chance to refresh.
That break may also be music to the ears of the Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James as fresh as he ever would be going into the PlayOffs. His partnership with Anthony Davis has worked as well as the Lakers would have hoped over the last several months and Davis is expected to play despite being poked in the eye in a scrimmage game against the Orlando Magic last weekend.
In a seven game series I do think it is going to be very hard to separate the Lakers and Clippers if both teams are healthy. My edge would be with the Clippers, although in this opening game on the resumption of play you do have to think they are missing key contributors which gives the Lakers a real edge.
Both teams are strong Defensively, but the second unit of the Clippers will have been dented without Lou Williams, while I do think JR Smith and Dion Waiters can give the Number 1 Seed a boost. Neither team will want to show too much of their hand with their Seeding positions largely in control and with seven more regular season games to complete to secure their spots.
Scrimmage games have shown that both the Lakers and Clippers look to be in good shape and it is a series in which the underdog has had the better of things in 2019/20. All three previous games have been won by the dog, but here I do think the Lakers will be able to square things up for the season having lost the first two games and beaten the Clippers just days before the suspension of play back in March.
My feeling is that the Lakers might be more keen to lay down a marker in this one ahead of a potential Series in the PlayOffs and the key contributors missing for the Clippers will be hard to make up.
However it may be more likely that the two teams are looking to hide some of their cards for a potential PlayOff Series and that may see the two Defenses coming out on top. Games between the Lakers and Clippers have been tough affairs already this season and the potential rustiness of the teams for the intensity of a real NBA game might just slow them down too.
With the Clippers and Lakers both missing some key players, I think the total may be very slightly on the high side here and looking for a fourth 'under' of the season between these two may be the best play.
Friday 31st July
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There are some big Seeding games in the NBA on Friday, but the return of Basketball also means you may want to take a watching brief on some of the teams involved. While there are six games scheduled on the day, only one of those is appealing enough from a NBA Pick point of view.
That comes from the second set of games scheduled for the day's play when the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (32-33). If the regular season had been completed as planned it may have been difficult for the Trail Blazers to close the gap to the Number 8 Seeded Grizzlies, but the new look end to the season gives them a chance with a strong finish.
One or two players in the Memphis camp are not happy with the new rules which state that the Number 8 Seed has to finish at least 4 games clear of the Number 9th placed team in either Conference to earn a guaranteed PlayOff spot. That is not likely to be an issue in the Eastern Conference, but the Grizzlies have a host of teams below them that are almost certain to finish within that mark and that will mean a 'Play In' situation.
It would mean the Number 9 Seed needs to beat the Number 8 Seed twice to steal their PlayOff spot, while the Number 8 team would only need to win once, but the Grizzlies do feel it is another obstacle in front of them in what has been a season of overachievement. That overachievement gives them some confidence though and Memphis had won four of their last six games before the sudden postponement of the NBA back in March.
The Grizzlies have the size to challenge the Portland Trail Blazers and during the regular season they have played pretty well at both ends of the court. A young team have certainly played above the levels that most expected of them and Ja Morant has been everything the Grizzlies would have hoped when Drafting him last year.
A few months ago the Grizzlies would have been very confident they could secure a season success over the Trail Blazers who reached the Western Conference Finals last season. There were some suggestions that the big names in the Portland camp would not be involved in the resumption of play, but Damian Lillard's biggest issue is a foot problem he is dealing with although that is not expected to keep him out of this one.
Trevor Ariza is one player that won't be involved, but the four and a half month break between games in the regular season has boosted the depth of the Trail Blazers. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins would have missed the regular season if the season had completed when it should have, but both are ready to go now and that is a big boost for the Trail Blazers.
It should help them, but you can't expect massive things from players who have not played a competitive game for months. However, if both Nurkic and Collins are back up to the levels that we know they can play at, the Portland Trail Blazers may be the most dangerous team in front of the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to the final spot in the Western Conference PlayOffs.
Those big men can give the Grizzlies a real challenge on the boards and I do think the underachieving Portland team will be a threat in this short run to the post-season. Defensively the Trail Blazers can be vulnerable though and you do have to wonder if their team is ready to go right away having struggled in the scrimmages preparing for the restart.
My feeling is that Portland may be a touch overrated at the beginning of the resumption because we don't really know how their returning players are going to cope. The young Memphis team will feel they have nothing to lose and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Portland which includes beating them outright in two of the three earlier meetings.
Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are 10-4 against the spread when given 4 or fewer points as the underdog this season compared with Portland being 7-10 against the spread as the small favourite and I do think backing the underdog may pay off here.
It isn't a huge spread, but Memphis might be able to score enough points to stay with the Trail Blazers and force this game to go down to the wire.
Monday 3rd August
I had a couple of busy days so I was not able to put in the kind of research needed to make any NBA Picks as the regular season continues in the NBA bubble in Orlando.
It has been a weekend with some mixed results as teams try and rediscover the chemistry and consistency they would have had without the long break from playing competitive basketball.
I do think by the time the PlayOffs will come around that the teams will all be in better shape, but for now you have to expect some ups and downs.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Home court advantage is not going to exist in the NBA PlayOffs in 2020, but that doesn't mean any team wants to roll into the post-season with no momentum behind them. There is plenty of movement in terms of Seeding in the Western Conference to come in the days before the PlayOffs and only 3.5 games separate the Number 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and the current Number 6 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24).
Bridging that may be a step too far for the Thunder, but they can certainly improve their current spot and that will begin if they can beat the Denver Nuggets (43-23) as both teams get set to play a second game in the NBA bubble.
The Thunder crushed the Utah Jazz, but a short-handed Denver team were blown out by the Miami Heat on the same day. It does mean the Thunder have a bit more momentum behind them having picked up from where they left off in March, and they will be looking to win a fifth game in a row and move into a position where they can control the kind of PlayOff path they want to lead.
Expectations have been surpassed by the Thunder throughout the 2019/20 season and the team do feel they have been given a huge boost by a returning Andre Roberson who was one of the elite Defenders in the NBA before suffering a long-term injury. Roberson has looked like an improved player in the NBA bubble, although his minutes will be restricted for now to make sure there isn't a setback.
With Chris Paul leading the team, the Thunder look in confident mood but the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. They gave up 125 points to the Miami Heat on Saturday and Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray were all missing.
We don't know if any of those players will be available for the Monday game with the Thunder, but it does mean Denver are going to struggle to contain Oklahoma City. Despite being short-handed, I do think the Nuggets will have expected a much better all around in their loss to the Miami Heat and that should make them more competitive in this one even if those three mentioned are unavailable again.
Denver struggled at both ends of the court in their opening loss in the NBA bubble, but there will be a demand to show more intensity on the Defensive side of the court. That should make them more competitive, but Oklahoma City have a very strong Defensive team from which the foundation for success this season have been built.
The Thunder are 14-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 7.5 points this season and the Nuggets are 5-8-1 against the spread when given up to 7.5 points as the underdog. Oklahoma City have also been strong when playing teams with a winning record and they did beat the Nuggets when these teams last met a few months ago.
Denver do have a very strong recent record against Oklahoma City, but they failed to cover for the first time in ten games against them last time out. The Nuggets are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the underdog and I do think Oklahoma City will just have a little too much on both ends of the court which helps them cover this mark.
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Only nine teams were invited to the NBA bubble from the Eastern Conference and most felt it was going to be a big ask for the Washington Wizards (24-42) to even force a 'Play In' situation for themselves. That was mainly down to the fact that some key players were not going to join their team in the short run to the PlayOffs and ultimately the Wizards have looked unlikely to trouble any team in the top eight.
Losing to the lowly Phoenix Suns is one thing, but on Sunday afternoon the Wizards were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets and now trail the current Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference by 7 games. To make matters even tougher on the Wizards, they become the first team that is going to be asked to play on back to back days in the bubble and they are going to be desperate to find a win.
That may make Washington a dangerous team, but they are without the likes of John Wall, Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal and most teams would find it difficult to plug those gaps. The team have struggled all season Defensively so when you miss those players who can take the scoring load on their shoulders it does gel together to become a very difficult situation all around.
Scott Brooks is not allowing his team to give up, but the Wizards have a very difficult set of remaining games and another defeat would virtually end their season. By hook or by crook Washington have to win out, but it is going to be a tough game in front of them when they meet the Indiana Pacers (40-26) who look to have recovered some health in the enforced break that was provided by the Coronavirus outbreak.
A win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their first game in the NBA bubble will give the Pacers some real confidence even if they are not considered a threat to the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers will be looking to use that expectation to motivate them and they are a team that is perhaps better than the sum of their parts.
Indiana do have a team that can exploit the Defensive shortcomings in the Washington squad, while they are very strong on the other side of the court. Rebounding could be a problem for them when they get into the PlayOffs, but this is not a game where that should be an issue for the Pacers and putting that together makes them a strong favourite.
I have to respect the fact that the Wizards have a 7-2 record against the spread when playing the second of a back to back this season. However, those games were played with a deeper looking rotation than the one they are using in the NBA bubble.
The Wizards are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog including being covered in both in the bubble so far. Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Washington Wizards.
Knowing the PlayOff situation is beginning to slip away from them and having so many big name players missing is going to make it difficult for the Washington Wizards to motivate them in the remaining days in the NBA bubble.
Some of the players may already be thinking about returning to their families and a team like the Indiana Pacers could expose any lack of motivation in the Washington squad.
It is a big mark, but the Pacers can beat out a team on the second half of a back to back and I think they can cover here.
Tuesday 4th August
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: We are already beginning to see some of the potential PlayOff Series coming together in the NBA bubble and that is especially the case in the Eastern Conference where the top eight teams are almost certainly set.
The Milwaukee Bucks are almost guaranteed to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the teams below them in the standing are looking to position themselves to make sure they can avoid having to play them before the Eastern Conference Finals. A win on Tuesday would put the Boston Celtics (44-22) in a position to effectively wrap up a top three Seed and that would mean they can build up towards the potential Finals clash with the Bucks as players improve their fitness.
It is the last chance for the Miami Heat (42-25) to close in on the Boston Celtics in the spot above them in the standings, although making up the 2.5 game gap at this stage looks a long shot. The Heat are playing on a back to back having lost a close on to the Toronto Raptors on Monday and some inside the locker room may believe it is better to tank out the remainder of the regular season and fall as low as the Number 6 Seed if possible.
That is an unlikely mindset with a player like Jimmy Butler leading the Heat, but this is a team who have struggled playing the second half of a back to back all season. They invested a lot of effort into the Monday defeat to the Raptors while the Boston Celtics were resting and Miami are just 3-6-2 against the spread in that spot this season.
Miami have also struggled when put in the underdog spot and the Celtics have covered the mark in the last three against them including in both games played this season.
Both teams are 1-1 since joining the NBA bubble, and I do think both are very capable of having a deep PlayOff run. However the additional rest for the Celtics and perhaps the game meaning a little more to them could make the difference.
It does mean they can play the more intensive Defense which is a key to the outcome of the game and Boston should be fully concentrated on this game to make sure they are on the opposite side of the bracket to the Milwaukee Bucks. There isn't a game on deck which should take away the concentration of the Celtics and I think they will have enough to cover here.
Wednesday 5th August
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Pick: There are always going to be conspiracy theories surrounding a new look schedule like the one the NBA had to put together, but the loudest voices insist the Memphis Grizzlies (32-36) are not the kind of team that the League would like to see in the First Round of the PlayOffs.
The Play In tournament was one aspect going against the Grizzlies, while the end of the 'regular season' in the NBA bubble looked a tough one and so far it has gone the way the NBA would like, at least according to those shouting conspiracy.
Memphis have lost all three games played in the bubble and are now only 1.5 games clear of the Portland Trail Blazers and with a host of other teams closing in too. At this point a 'Play In' may be the best bet for the Grizzlies, but securing the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference would at least mean the Number 9 ranked team would have to beat them twice to steal away their PlayOff spot.
To that end the Grizzlies need to start winning as it looks like both the Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs have some momentum behind them. The upcoming games are anything but easy and the Grizzlies have lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the season, although they may not have a better opponent to face than the Utah Jazz (42-25) who have lost back to back games.
Losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers is much different than losing to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz have managed some Fourth Quarter scoring to overcome the New Orleans Pelicans in the bubble. There are some questions about the Jazz on both ends of the court which need to be answered before the PlayOffs begin, and motivation should remain high for a team who are still playing for Seeding in the Western Conference even though home court is no longer an issue.
There was always a concern for the Jazz that they would miss the scoring punch that was given to them by Bojan Bogdanovic who shut things down for the season prior to the resumption of play. It has proven to be the case so far, although Utah are facing one of the weaker teams in the bubble on Wednesday rather than those looking to go deep in the PlayOffs and that proved to be a winning situation last week when edging out the Pelicans.
If the Grizzlies make as slow a start as they have to each game in the bubble then it will be very difficult to peg back a Jazz team that is still strong Defensively. However, performing for the full 48 minutes has been on the mind of the players and with Ja Morant still performing as he has been, the Grizzlies will definitely believe they can make a good fist of things and at least end the losing run.
Utah just may not have enough scoring to really pull clear of this mark if the Grizzlies are making a strong start to this one. They deserve to be favourites because the Jazz have won two of the three meetings between these teams in the 2019/20 season, both straight up and against the spread, but things are very different for both teams in the NBA bubble and Utah have not played to a level which makes you think they can win easily.
The Jazz are just 2-13-2 against the spread in their last seventeen games as the favourite and it can't be ignored that the Memphis Grizzlies have been in competitive losses in the NBA bubble. None of the defeats have come by more than 10 points and the first two losses were by 5 points or fewer.
Add in the Utah sole win that either team has produced came by a couple of points and I do think the underdog is worth backing here.
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Both of these teams are very much on course to enter the PlayOffs and depending on the way things go in the next few days there is every chance that this is a preview of one of the First Round Series in the Eastern Conference.
The Toronto Raptors (48-18) are the defending NBA Champions, but not many tipped them up to be capable of repeating having lost a couple of key performers in the off-season. None were more important than Kahwi Leonard, but the Raptors have rallied together and three wins in the NBA bubble over the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat have given people pause for thought.
All of a sudden it is not solely about avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as possible with the Raptors arguably looking as strong as any going for the NBA Championship. They can effectively wrap up a top two Seed in the Conference with a win on Wednesday and the Raptors will then be able to rest bodies and minds before the PlayOffs begin, although the spot is one that concerns me between big games against the likes of the Lakers and Heat and then having the Boston Celtics on deck.
It could easily lead to a situation where the Orlando Magic (32-36) are overlooked by the Raptors having been beaten three times in the regular season already. The Magic do have a healthy lead over the Washington Wizards in the Number 9 spot in the Eastern Conference which would see them avoid a Play In situation, but Orlando will be looking to bounce back from their blow out loss on Tuesday to the Indiana Pacers.
Before that the Magic had won their first two games in the NBA bubble, but the surprising form shown by the Brooklyn Nets means Orlando have slipped into the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They can pick and choose which of the top two teams they would want to face, but teams in their position just simply want to go into the PlayOffs with some momentum behind them.
A part of the reason for the blowout loss may have been the injury suffered by Jonathan Isaac in the previous game. After returning from a long lay off, Isaac looked to be playing really well and is a key Defensive piece for the Magic and the whole team may have started off feeling sorry for themselves in the defeat to the Pacers.
It has been made clear to the entire squad they will need to be a lot better to compete with either Milwaukee or Toronto in a potential First Round Series, but Orlando do produce enough Offensive output to be dangerous to those teams. The Magic will need that side of their game to be operating at close to full tilt if they are going to challenge a Toronto team who thrive on Defensive intensity and it will be a key to the outcome of each game these teams play in the remainder of the season.
You would expect Toronto to have enough Offensively to hurt the Magic considering the levels the latter have produced and now being without Jonathan Isaac, while the Raptors also have the energy around the boards to win the rebounding battle.
The Raptors have covered in the last five games between these teams and Orlando are 3-5-2 against the spread in ten games played in the second half of a back to back.
Orlando are also 9-18-1 against the spread this season when playing a team with a winning record and I think the Raptors can make it four from four both straight up and against the number in this one.
Friday 31st July
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There are some big Seeding games in the NBA on Friday, but the return of Basketball also means you may want to take a watching brief on some of the teams involved. While there are six games scheduled on the day, only one of those is appealing enough from a NBA Pick point of view.
That comes from the second set of games scheduled for the day's play when the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (32-33). If the regular season had been completed as planned it may have been difficult for the Trail Blazers to close the gap to the Number 8 Seeded Grizzlies, but the new look end to the season gives them a chance with a strong finish.
One or two players in the Memphis camp are not happy with the new rules which state that the Number 8 Seed has to finish at least 4 games clear of the Number 9th placed team in either Conference to earn a guaranteed PlayOff spot. That is not likely to be an issue in the Eastern Conference, but the Grizzlies have a host of teams below them that are almost certain to finish within that mark and that will mean a 'Play In' situation.
It would mean the Number 9 Seed needs to beat the Number 8 Seed twice to steal their PlayOff spot, while the Number 8 team would only need to win once, but the Grizzlies do feel it is another obstacle in front of them in what has been a season of overachievement. That overachievement gives them some confidence though and Memphis had won four of their last six games before the sudden postponement of the NBA back in March.
The Grizzlies have the size to challenge the Portland Trail Blazers and during the regular season they have played pretty well at both ends of the court. A young team have certainly played above the levels that most expected of them and Ja Morant has been everything the Grizzlies would have hoped when Drafting him last year.
A few months ago the Grizzlies would have been very confident they could secure a season success over the Trail Blazers who reached the Western Conference Finals last season. There were some suggestions that the big names in the Portland camp would not be involved in the resumption of play, but Damian Lillard's biggest issue is a foot problem he is dealing with although that is not expected to keep him out of this one.
Trevor Ariza is one player that won't be involved, but the four and a half month break between games in the regular season has boosted the depth of the Trail Blazers. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins would have missed the regular season if the season had completed when it should have, but both are ready to go now and that is a big boost for the Trail Blazers.
It should help them, but you can't expect massive things from players who have not played a competitive game for months. However, if both Nurkic and Collins are back up to the levels that we know they can play at, the Portland Trail Blazers may be the most dangerous team in front of the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to the final spot in the Western Conference PlayOffs.
Those big men can give the Grizzlies a real challenge on the boards and I do think the underachieving Portland team will be a threat in this short run to the post-season. Defensively the Trail Blazers can be vulnerable though and you do have to wonder if their team is ready to go right away having struggled in the scrimmages preparing for the restart.
My feeling is that Portland may be a touch overrated at the beginning of the resumption because we don't really know how their returning players are going to cope. The young Memphis team will feel they have nothing to lose and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Portland which includes beating them outright in two of the three earlier meetings.
Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are 10-4 against the spread when given 4 or fewer points as the underdog this season compared with Portland being 7-10 against the spread as the small favourite and I do think backing the underdog may pay off here.
It isn't a huge spread, but Memphis might be able to score enough points to stay with the Trail Blazers and force this game to go down to the wire.
Monday 3rd August
I had a couple of busy days so I was not able to put in the kind of research needed to make any NBA Picks as the regular season continues in the NBA bubble in Orlando.
It has been a weekend with some mixed results as teams try and rediscover the chemistry and consistency they would have had without the long break from playing competitive basketball.
I do think by the time the PlayOffs will come around that the teams will all be in better shape, but for now you have to expect some ups and downs.
Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Home court advantage is not going to exist in the NBA PlayOffs in 2020, but that doesn't mean any team wants to roll into the post-season with no momentum behind them. There is plenty of movement in terms of Seeding in the Western Conference to come in the days before the PlayOffs and only 3.5 games separate the Number 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and the current Number 6 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24).
Bridging that may be a step too far for the Thunder, but they can certainly improve their current spot and that will begin if they can beat the Denver Nuggets (43-23) as both teams get set to play a second game in the NBA bubble.
The Thunder crushed the Utah Jazz, but a short-handed Denver team were blown out by the Miami Heat on the same day. It does mean the Thunder have a bit more momentum behind them having picked up from where they left off in March, and they will be looking to win a fifth game in a row and move into a position where they can control the kind of PlayOff path they want to lead.
Expectations have been surpassed by the Thunder throughout the 2019/20 season and the team do feel they have been given a huge boost by a returning Andre Roberson who was one of the elite Defenders in the NBA before suffering a long-term injury. Roberson has looked like an improved player in the NBA bubble, although his minutes will be restricted for now to make sure there isn't a setback.
With Chris Paul leading the team, the Thunder look in confident mood but the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. They gave up 125 points to the Miami Heat on Saturday and Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray were all missing.
We don't know if any of those players will be available for the Monday game with the Thunder, but it does mean Denver are going to struggle to contain Oklahoma City. Despite being short-handed, I do think the Nuggets will have expected a much better all around in their loss to the Miami Heat and that should make them more competitive in this one even if those three mentioned are unavailable again.
Denver struggled at both ends of the court in their opening loss in the NBA bubble, but there will be a demand to show more intensity on the Defensive side of the court. That should make them more competitive, but Oklahoma City have a very strong Defensive team from which the foundation for success this season have been built.
The Thunder are 14-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 7.5 points this season and the Nuggets are 5-8-1 against the spread when given up to 7.5 points as the underdog. Oklahoma City have also been strong when playing teams with a winning record and they did beat the Nuggets when these teams last met a few months ago.
Denver do have a very strong recent record against Oklahoma City, but they failed to cover for the first time in ten games against them last time out. The Nuggets are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the underdog and I do think Oklahoma City will just have a little too much on both ends of the court which helps them cover this mark.
Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Only nine teams were invited to the NBA bubble from the Eastern Conference and most felt it was going to be a big ask for the Washington Wizards (24-42) to even force a 'Play In' situation for themselves. That was mainly down to the fact that some key players were not going to join their team in the short run to the PlayOffs and ultimately the Wizards have looked unlikely to trouble any team in the top eight.
Losing to the lowly Phoenix Suns is one thing, but on Sunday afternoon the Wizards were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets and now trail the current Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference by 7 games. To make matters even tougher on the Wizards, they become the first team that is going to be asked to play on back to back days in the bubble and they are going to be desperate to find a win.
That may make Washington a dangerous team, but they are without the likes of John Wall, Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal and most teams would find it difficult to plug those gaps. The team have struggled all season Defensively so when you miss those players who can take the scoring load on their shoulders it does gel together to become a very difficult situation all around.
Scott Brooks is not allowing his team to give up, but the Wizards have a very difficult set of remaining games and another defeat would virtually end their season. By hook or by crook Washington have to win out, but it is going to be a tough game in front of them when they meet the Indiana Pacers (40-26) who look to have recovered some health in the enforced break that was provided by the Coronavirus outbreak.
A win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their first game in the NBA bubble will give the Pacers some real confidence even if they are not considered a threat to the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers will be looking to use that expectation to motivate them and they are a team that is perhaps better than the sum of their parts.
Indiana do have a team that can exploit the Defensive shortcomings in the Washington squad, while they are very strong on the other side of the court. Rebounding could be a problem for them when they get into the PlayOffs, but this is not a game where that should be an issue for the Pacers and putting that together makes them a strong favourite.
I have to respect the fact that the Wizards have a 7-2 record against the spread when playing the second of a back to back this season. However, those games were played with a deeper looking rotation than the one they are using in the NBA bubble.
The Wizards are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog including being covered in both in the bubble so far. Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Washington Wizards.
Knowing the PlayOff situation is beginning to slip away from them and having so many big name players missing is going to make it difficult for the Washington Wizards to motivate them in the remaining days in the NBA bubble.
Some of the players may already be thinking about returning to their families and a team like the Indiana Pacers could expose any lack of motivation in the Washington squad.
It is a big mark, but the Pacers can beat out a team on the second half of a back to back and I think they can cover here.
Tuesday 4th August
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: We are already beginning to see some of the potential PlayOff Series coming together in the NBA bubble and that is especially the case in the Eastern Conference where the top eight teams are almost certainly set.
The Milwaukee Bucks are almost guaranteed to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the teams below them in the standing are looking to position themselves to make sure they can avoid having to play them before the Eastern Conference Finals. A win on Tuesday would put the Boston Celtics (44-22) in a position to effectively wrap up a top three Seed and that would mean they can build up towards the potential Finals clash with the Bucks as players improve their fitness.
It is the last chance for the Miami Heat (42-25) to close in on the Boston Celtics in the spot above them in the standings, although making up the 2.5 game gap at this stage looks a long shot. The Heat are playing on a back to back having lost a close on to the Toronto Raptors on Monday and some inside the locker room may believe it is better to tank out the remainder of the regular season and fall as low as the Number 6 Seed if possible.
That is an unlikely mindset with a player like Jimmy Butler leading the Heat, but this is a team who have struggled playing the second half of a back to back all season. They invested a lot of effort into the Monday defeat to the Raptors while the Boston Celtics were resting and Miami are just 3-6-2 against the spread in that spot this season.
Miami have also struggled when put in the underdog spot and the Celtics have covered the mark in the last three against them including in both games played this season.
Both teams are 1-1 since joining the NBA bubble, and I do think both are very capable of having a deep PlayOff run. However the additional rest for the Celtics and perhaps the game meaning a little more to them could make the difference.
It does mean they can play the more intensive Defense which is a key to the outcome of the game and Boston should be fully concentrated on this game to make sure they are on the opposite side of the bracket to the Milwaukee Bucks. There isn't a game on deck which should take away the concentration of the Celtics and I think they will have enough to cover here.
Wednesday 5th August
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Pick: There are always going to be conspiracy theories surrounding a new look schedule like the one the NBA had to put together, but the loudest voices insist the Memphis Grizzlies (32-36) are not the kind of team that the League would like to see in the First Round of the PlayOffs.
The Play In tournament was one aspect going against the Grizzlies, while the end of the 'regular season' in the NBA bubble looked a tough one and so far it has gone the way the NBA would like, at least according to those shouting conspiracy.
Memphis have lost all three games played in the bubble and are now only 1.5 games clear of the Portland Trail Blazers and with a host of other teams closing in too. At this point a 'Play In' may be the best bet for the Grizzlies, but securing the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference would at least mean the Number 9 ranked team would have to beat them twice to steal away their PlayOff spot.
To that end the Grizzlies need to start winning as it looks like both the Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs have some momentum behind them. The upcoming games are anything but easy and the Grizzlies have lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the season, although they may not have a better opponent to face than the Utah Jazz (42-25) who have lost back to back games.
Losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers is much different than losing to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz have managed some Fourth Quarter scoring to overcome the New Orleans Pelicans in the bubble. There are some questions about the Jazz on both ends of the court which need to be answered before the PlayOffs begin, and motivation should remain high for a team who are still playing for Seeding in the Western Conference even though home court is no longer an issue.
There was always a concern for the Jazz that they would miss the scoring punch that was given to them by Bojan Bogdanovic who shut things down for the season prior to the resumption of play. It has proven to be the case so far, although Utah are facing one of the weaker teams in the bubble on Wednesday rather than those looking to go deep in the PlayOffs and that proved to be a winning situation last week when edging out the Pelicans.
If the Grizzlies make as slow a start as they have to each game in the bubble then it will be very difficult to peg back a Jazz team that is still strong Defensively. However, performing for the full 48 minutes has been on the mind of the players and with Ja Morant still performing as he has been, the Grizzlies will definitely believe they can make a good fist of things and at least end the losing run.
Utah just may not have enough scoring to really pull clear of this mark if the Grizzlies are making a strong start to this one. They deserve to be favourites because the Jazz have won two of the three meetings between these teams in the 2019/20 season, both straight up and against the spread, but things are very different for both teams in the NBA bubble and Utah have not played to a level which makes you think they can win easily.
The Jazz are just 2-13-2 against the spread in their last seventeen games as the favourite and it can't be ignored that the Memphis Grizzlies have been in competitive losses in the NBA bubble. None of the defeats have come by more than 10 points and the first two losses were by 5 points or fewer.
Add in the Utah sole win that either team has produced came by a couple of points and I do think the underdog is worth backing here.
Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Both of these teams are very much on course to enter the PlayOffs and depending on the way things go in the next few days there is every chance that this is a preview of one of the First Round Series in the Eastern Conference.
The Toronto Raptors (48-18) are the defending NBA Champions, but not many tipped them up to be capable of repeating having lost a couple of key performers in the off-season. None were more important than Kahwi Leonard, but the Raptors have rallied together and three wins in the NBA bubble over the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat have given people pause for thought.
All of a sudden it is not solely about avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as possible with the Raptors arguably looking as strong as any going for the NBA Championship. They can effectively wrap up a top two Seed in the Conference with a win on Wednesday and the Raptors will then be able to rest bodies and minds before the PlayOffs begin, although the spot is one that concerns me between big games against the likes of the Lakers and Heat and then having the Boston Celtics on deck.
It could easily lead to a situation where the Orlando Magic (32-36) are overlooked by the Raptors having been beaten three times in the regular season already. The Magic do have a healthy lead over the Washington Wizards in the Number 9 spot in the Eastern Conference which would see them avoid a Play In situation, but Orlando will be looking to bounce back from their blow out loss on Tuesday to the Indiana Pacers.
Before that the Magic had won their first two games in the NBA bubble, but the surprising form shown by the Brooklyn Nets means Orlando have slipped into the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They can pick and choose which of the top two teams they would want to face, but teams in their position just simply want to go into the PlayOffs with some momentum behind them.
A part of the reason for the blowout loss may have been the injury suffered by Jonathan Isaac in the previous game. After returning from a long lay off, Isaac looked to be playing really well and is a key Defensive piece for the Magic and the whole team may have started off feeling sorry for themselves in the defeat to the Pacers.
It has been made clear to the entire squad they will need to be a lot better to compete with either Milwaukee or Toronto in a potential First Round Series, but Orlando do produce enough Offensive output to be dangerous to those teams. The Magic will need that side of their game to be operating at close to full tilt if they are going to challenge a Toronto team who thrive on Defensive intensity and it will be a key to the outcome of each game these teams play in the remainder of the season.
You would expect Toronto to have enough Offensively to hurt the Magic considering the levels the latter have produced and now being without Jonathan Isaac, while the Raptors also have the energy around the boards to win the rebounding battle.
The Raptors have covered in the last five games between these teams and Orlando are 3-5-2 against the spread in ten games played in the second half of a back to back.
Orlando are also 9-18-1 against the spread this season when playing a team with a winning record and I think the Raptors can make it four from four both straight up and against the number in this one.
MY PICKS: 30/07 Utah Jazz + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
30/07 Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Under 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/07 Memphis Grizzlies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
03/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/08 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/08 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/08 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
05/08 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
NBA Update: 3-3, - 0.23 Units
31/07 Memphis Grizzlies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
03/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/08 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/08 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/08 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
05/08 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
NBA Update: 3-3, - 0.23 Units
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