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Saturday 11 July 2020

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 11-13)

There are a number of managers who have voiced their concerns with the amount of football the players are being asked to play in a short span of time.

We may hear more of those complaints in the months ahead when you think of the narrow window in which the 2020/21 season has to be played so it doesn't impact the Euro 2020 tournament which has been pushed back twelve months. UEFA have not really helped by maintaining their early Nations League windows and the Champions League/Europa League Group Stage is going to be played in a little under two months to put pressure on the big Leagues around the continent.

Those are issues that have been kicked down the road by the top Divisions who are all expected to get back underway in early September after the first Nations League matches have been played. We should begin to hear more about the plans and the schedule fairly shortly as we enter the final four League games of the 2019/20 season in the Premier League.


Results this past week look to have been devastating for the likes of Bournemouth and Aston Villa who both failed to win home games while Watford secured a vital three points. Four games are left to complete for all the sides looking to avoid relegation and the 3 point gap between Bournemouth and Watford already looks a big one that is going to be very difficult to bridge at this stage of the season.

Ultimately there is no momentum behind any of the clubs in the bottom three which suggests they are going to turn things around, although another weekend of Premier League games could quickly change the landscape.


The top four battle looks much more likely to go down to the wire, although it does now feel it is between three teams to earn two places. Chelsea, Leicester City and Manchester United will all have a keen eye on the decision made on Manchester City's appeal against their European ban which will be announced on Monday as that may open up 5th place for a Champions League berth, but all things being equal it does feel like the Leicester City versus Manchester United game on July 26th could be vital.


We also had the draws for the Champions League and Europa League which shows the path teams will have to run if they are going to win those tournaments which are completed next month.

Manchester United have to be happy with the Quarter Final draw, but then likely will face either Sevilla or Wolves in the Semi Final and that makes for a difficult road. It is especially hard to negotiate in single Leg ties which is how those competitions are going to be completed, although on current form you do have to make Manchester United favourites to win in Germany.

The Champions League draw looks to have created a very strong half of the draw as Manchester City, Real Madrid, Barcelona, Juventus and Bayern Munich remain in one half. Picking someone to earn their way through that is not going to be easy, while the big winners on Friday might be Paris Saint-Germain who look to be in the easier section.

However, Paris Saint-Germain have not played a competitive fixture since March and they have a habit of failing from positions of strength and I would not rule out Atletico Madrid from battling their way through to the Final.

Those are issues for the next few weeks though as domestic Leagues are completed first, while the FA Cup Final is also set to be completed in the week before those European competitions resume.


Another round of Premier League games are to be played this weekend from Saturday through to Monday evening and you can read my thoughts on those below. Following that I will go into the latest GameWeek of the Fantasy Premier League game after a relatively disappointing week.


Norwich City v West Ham United Pick: Over the last three Premier League games, West Ham United have created enough chances to win all three but have returned 4 points from a possible 9. While some will be disappointed, David Moyes will also know those are valuable points at this stage of the season which have just eased relegation concerns.

Depending on the Bournemouth and Aston Villa results on Thursday, that gap may either feel like a chasm or a logjam by the time this fixture is due to kick off on Saturday. If one, or both clubs have won, West Ham United will feel the breath on the back of their necks and there will be a lot of pressure on the players to produce a result against a team that is almost certainly going to be relegated.

West Ham United have to concentrate on their own issues and they have been playing well enough to expose any defensive vulnerabilities Norwich City have. The home team have not defended well enough to keep teams out as they have struggled with the balance between attack and defence, while Norwich City never seem too far away from making a real mistake that costs them a goal.

The Hammers have pace in forward areas that will be very threatening on the counter attack, but their own defensive problems are clear to see. West Ham United have not had a single clean sheet in their last 15 games in all competitions and Norwich City should have nothing to lose.

That attitude saw them lead at Watford and pose problems for another struggling team, but it is hard to ignore the failure to score in 3 home Premier League games since the resumption of play. At this stage you would think they have nothing to lose, but playing without the fans has been difficult for Norwich City who must feel they would have had a much greater motivation to push on with the backing from the stands.

Norwich City have to throw some caution to the wind and I do think they will have some opportunities in this one. Unfortunately I don't think they can keep West Ham United out at the other end and this could be a fixture in which goals are produced.

West Ham United look plenty short to win here considering their own away form, but I think they can edge a high-scoring game and that will put them in a very strong position to avoid relegation.


Watford v Newcastle United Pick: This has the look of a fascinating Premier League game where all of the pressure is on Watford to earn the points to keep them safe before having to face Manchester City and Arsenal in their final two League games.

The extent of that pressure will depend on whether Bournemouth and/or Aston Villa have won their games to be played on Thursday, but Nigel Pearson will know his team have some confidence from the 2-1 win over Norwich City behind them.

Now they go again at home against a Newcastle United team fresh off their 5-0 hammering at the hands of Manchester City. I am not going to read too much into that game as Steve Bruce has his team playing very well before that and he did rest some key names from the start that will likely take part in this fixture.

The attitude of the manager has seen Newcastle United produce some very attacking performances since the resumption of the Premier League and that does make them dangerous. They have pace in the wide areas and will likely employ two up front which proved to be very important in their 1-4 win at Bournemouth earlier this month.

Newcastle United will certainly feel there are gaps to exploit in the Watford defence who have conceded in all 3 games at Vicarage Road played in the last month. Even Norwich City were creating chances here and might have gotten more out of the game on a different day and I do think The Magpies will really challenge Watford.

The new attacking intent has left Newcastle United more vulnerable at the back though and they have conceded at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 games in all competitions. Granted two of those fixtures were against the powerful Manchester City squad, but Bournemouth scored against them and West Ham United managed two goals which can't be ignored.

I do think both teams will have chances in this one as Watford look to score in their sixth consecutive home Premier League game. They are not defending well enough to keep out Newcastle United in all honesty and so an attacking game could be in prospect with at least three goals shared out.

It is a vital game for Watford and they might not push too many forward if they are level and neither Bournemouth nor Aston Villa have won on Thursday evening, but for seventy minutes I expect to see attacking enterprise on display and that may lead to at least three goals being shared out.


Liverpool v Burnley Pick: You can't help but credit Burnley for the way they have continued to overachieve under Sean Dyche and I think the club would be very foolish to allow the manager to walk away.

It's one thing if Dyche is offered the chance to progress his career at a 'bigger' club, but another altogether if there has been a falling out between the manager and the directors which leads him to take a break from football.

Burnley players have shown their support for Sean Dyche by producing a 4 game unbeaten run and winning 3 of those with a single goal being enough to secure those victories. They are not creating a host of chances in games, but Burnley are solid and they use set pieces to challenge any team they face and you can't help but respect a club that have won 4 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

There is no doubt that Liverpool will need to be focused and energetic if they are going to win this fixture. Since winning the title the performances have lacked a little intensity and Liverpool have been somewhat fortunate to beat Aston Villa and Brighton in their last two games.

However it is no surprise that a talented attacking team have found the right passes at the right time to win matches and I do think Liverpool will find a way to break down a Burnley team who have earned clean sheets in games where opponents will feel they have missed big chances.

That was the case in both away wins at Crystal Palace and West Ham United and I do think Burnley will do very well to keep Liverpool out. There is motivation to break the record points total which should keep Liverpool going and Sadio Mane was rested on Wednesday until coming on late in the game so should be fresh.

Liverpool have earned back to back clean sheets at home since the resumption of the Premier League and I think they will likely win this one with a clean sheet.


Sheffield United v Chelsea Pick: The most immediate reaction I have to seeing the prices for this weekend's game at Bramall Lane is that Chelsea are far too short to secure the win.

Outside of the top two, I don't think any team deserves to be odds on to beat Sheffield United here and especially not in the form that The Blades have displayed in the last week.

The home team may not score the amount of goals that their play has deserved, but they work hard and are a threat from set pieces. There is quality in the final third and putting these together I simply don't believe this Chelsea defence can keep a clean sheet.

They were being rocked by Crystal Palace on Tuesday and needed a huge slice of fortune to come away with a 2-3 win and Chelsea have kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 away games in all competitions. Sheffield United have scored in 10 of their last 11 at home and beat Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves in consecutive games here so I have to say backing the home team with a start doesn't look the worst play.

It would need a Chelsea win by two or more goals to see the stake lost, but only 1 of their last 15 away games has ended with such a scoreline. Sheffield United should score here which makes it more difficult to believe Chelsea will run past them, but I also have to respect the amount of chances and goals Frank Lampard's team produce on their travels.

As strong as Sheffield United's defensive record has been, they are not a team who have shut down opponents and I do think Chelsea will have chances here. The 1-1 might suit the home team a little more than the visitors, but I don't think either team will sit back and accept that result and so the selection is going to be looking for goals.

Four goals were shared out when these teams met at Stamford Bridge and I do think there is enough evidence from their recent home/away games respectively which suggests we will see chances and goals in this one. The last 5 Chelsea away Premier League games have ended with three or more goals shared out and I do think both hitting the net is a real likelihood which may lead to at least three goals produced in this one too.

I would not be surprised if Sheffield United edge to the points, but my gut feeling is that this game ends 2-1 either way.


Brighton v Manchester City Pick: The last Premier League game on Saturday evening may mean slightly more to Brighton than Manchester City for their long-term ambitions, but both clubs look relatively secure in their current positions.

Of course it has been a disappointing season for Manchester City which will only be improved if they can win the Champions League next month. Pep Guardiola wants his team to go into those fixtures with a FA Cup success behind them and he will want a strong end to the Premier League season to build the momentum and confidence.

In a really surprising turn of events, Manchester City were beaten 1-0 at Southampton last weekend and have lost 3 Premier League away games in a row. Actually they have lost more away games than any other team in the current top eight in the Premier League and that is terrible stat for a team who had earned 198 points across two previous seasons.

They were unlucky at Southampton when bad finishing coupled with an inspired Alex McCarthy cost them. You have to believe Manchester City won't be as poor in the final third again and they are facing a Brighton team who have looked to play their football under Graham Potter.

Brighton look like they are going to have enough to avoid relegation at the end of this campaign and they were very impressive in their 1-3 defeat to Liverpool despite the defeat. The team created chances and wanted to play on the front foot, but that should leave spaces for Manchester City to exploit in this one.

The Seagulls have conceded three times in back to back home games against Manchester United and Liverpool and their defending has simply not been good enough in those games. I do think they will have some success going forward as they did in their fixture against Liverpool, especially as Manchester City have not defended very well for much of the season, but that may still not be enough for Brighton to secure a result here.

Both Manchester City visits here have ended with comfortable wins for Pep Guardiola's men and I think they are likely to put another one on the board on Saturday.


Wolves v Everton PickNeither Wolves nor Everton are in the kind of form they would want to be as they go into their final four games in the Premier League season, but home advantage could be key to the outcome of this one.

In their 2 home games played since the resumption of play, Wolves have defended well enough and created chances to win the fixtures. They would have been very disappointed with their 0-2 defeat to Arsenal last week, but Wolves had their opportunities and I do think they can bounce back and produce better in this one.

I think the chance of getting into the Champions League through their Premier League form might have been lost after back to back losses, but that may free Wolves up who will be targeting a return to the Europa League at the least. The players might be able to play with a bit more freedom this week and Wolves have been a team who can be very tough to play here.

They are facing an Everton team who drew with Southampton on Thursday, but that means they have had a day less to prepare for this one. Everton have not looked as strong in the final third as they would have liked in their last 4 Premier League games and Everton have looked vulnerable at the back which is an area that Wolves will try and exploit.

Everton do have a decent record at Molineux and they did beat Wolves at home earlier this season. However I do think the players are struggling a little bit at the moment and I can see Wolves being stubborn defensively and do just enough to earn the victory.

Adama Traore's potential absence would be a blow, but there is more quality in the Wolves ranks than we have seen of late. I expect Nuno Espirito Santo can help the team return to form and Wolves do put enough quality together in the final third which can see them narrowly get past Everton in this one.

It won't be easy for Wolves unless they can find a slightly more cutting edge in the attacking areas, but they may be helped by Everton's recent form and the extra day of recovery could be crucial for them.


Aston Villa v Crystal Palace PickA controversial moment allowed Manchester United to take the lead at Villa Park on Thursday and from there the home team were never really able to get back into the match. An eventual 0-3 defeat has pushed Aston Villa closer to the Championship and they are in a very difficult position going into the final four games.

There is already a 4 point gap between Aston Villa and the likes of West Ham United and Watford, but that could have been extended by the time this game kicks off. Both of those teams have matches where they are favoured to win on Saturday and bridging 7 points with just four games left to play would be too much for Aston Villa.

The results in those two Premier League fixtures could have a huge impact on the way Aston Villa approach this one- the players might be feeling sorry for themselves if they feel that avoiding relegation is now beyond them and it wouldn't have been very easy against Crystal Palace anyway.

Roy Hodgson's men may have lost 4 Premier League games in a row, but they pushed Chelsea all the way in their 2-3 defeat on Tuesday and having the additional time to rest and prepare for this game should benefit Crystal Palace.

In general this is a team that does make life difficult for opponents despite the recent heavy losses at Liverpool and Leicester City. However, Crystal Palace can also lack some quality in the final third and I do think there is a chance that the players may keep something in reserve for their upcoming game against Manchester United having put so much into their fixture with Chelsea.

There is a chance that Aston Villa have to take risks which leaves them exposed to Crystal Palace, but I do think the struggles both have had in the final third could be the most likely outcome of the match. One of the teams failing to find the net is where I think this fixture will go, although maybe think about backing Crystal Palace to earn a positive result if both West Ham United and Watford have earned points on Saturday to extend the gap to Aston Villa.


Tottenham Hotspur v Arsenal PickThe second and final North London derby of the 2019/20 season will be played on Sunday and both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal will be searching for the points that takes them nearer to at least a Europa League spot for next season.

Both are still mathematically involved in the top four race, but neither team has shown the consistent form to get back into the Champions League.

Pride will also be on the line as the winning team will be in pole position to at least finish highest in North London, but this has been an underwhelming season for both Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal who have changed managers within the campaign.

Tottenham Hotspur are off a miserable goalless draw with Bournemouth on Thursday and they are facing a rival who last played on Tuesday so should have a physical edge. That won't cut it as an excuse for Spurs fans if they are beaten on Sunday and Jose Mourinho has to produce a big reaction from his players who are struggling to create solid chances.

At least Tottenham Hotspur have won their last 2 games here and back to back clean sheets in those victories will give the team something to build upon. They have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 4 overall and Tottenham Hotspur have the experience to at least keep some control of an Arsenal team who have clinical strikers but who do not create a lot of chances.

Mikel Arteta has made his team a little more stubborn and he is coaching up the defenders to at least make things harder for teams to break them down. They have given up limited chances in their last 4 Premier League games and in that time Arsenal have only conceded the single goal.

Last week they won at Wolves who had been flying before that result and games between Tottenham Hotspur and Arsenal hosted by Spurs have tended to be tighter affairs in recent years.

The last 3 Premier League games hosted by Tottenham Hotspur have featured two or fewer goals shared out, and the way these two attacks and defences have been playing I do think it is entirely plausible that we will see another tight game on Sunday.

Neither will want to give too much away and the lack of real chances being created by either team has to be a concern for those searching for entertainment. An early goal could change the whole feeling around the fixture, but both Spurs and Arsenal have been playing with enough discipline at the back to restrict the other and I do think fewer than three goals will be scored.


Bournemouth v Leicester City PickThursday night saw Tottenham Hotspur produce a miserable performance on the south coast, but Eddie Howe's Bournemouth were not able to convert some good chances and had to settle for a goalless draw.

In normal times that would not be seen as a negative result, but Bournemouth are in a fight for survival and it is wins, not draws, which are going to give them any chance of avoiding the drop. The poor form has stretched back a number of months and seen Bournemouth take 2 points from a possible 27 in the Premier League, although they did snap a run of consecutive losses here by earning the draw with Spurs.

Both West Ham United and Watford play on Saturday and the gap to Bournemouth could easily be 6 points by the end of those fixtures. That will mean Bournemouth have to take some real chances knowing they are effectively 7 points behind with their poor goal difference in play.

Regardless of the results their relegation rivals earn this weekend, Eddie Howe will know his team have to get forward and win this game. They should have chances against this Leicester City team, but I do worry about Bournemouth having a lot less time to prepare for this game than their top four chasing visitors.

Leicester City have earned 4 points from the last week thanks to a home win over Crystal Palace and a draw at Arsenal, but Brendan Rodgers knows his team need to start putting consistent wins on the board. Four wins from four remaining Premier League games will be enough to secure Champions League Football next season, but it is a big ask of a Leicester City team who have struggled for consistency in recent months.

They have not won any of their last 6 away games and Leicester City haven't scored more than a single goal in their last 8 on their travels in all competitions. Leicester City should have more opportunities in this one considering Bournemouth's situation and poor defensive record, and the feeling is that this is going to be a lot more attacking game from both sides than the one we saw on Thursday when Tottenham Hotspur visited here.

Both teams may feel they need to take risks to earn the three points and I do think both will have their chances to score. The 1-1 wouldn't do a lot for either team, but I will look for the chances being created by both teams to lead to goals and feel there will be three or more scored here.


Manchester United v Southampton PickPlaying last in the latest round of Premier League fixtures does mean there could be some pressure on Manchester United to respond to results that Chelsea and Leicester City achieve over the weekend, but this is a team playing with confidence.

You can't underestimate the fact that Manchester United have become the first team to win four Premier League games in a row by three or more goal margins since this League was formed in 1992. That is an impressive mark for a team who have dismissed Sheffield United, Brighton, Bournemouth and Aston Villa since the restart of the Division.

Manchester United will look to get on the front foot early in this one when they take on an in-form Southampton team at Old Trafford on Monday Night Football.

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has admitted this is not going to be an easy game and Southampton will play with plenty of confidence of their own. They have actually won more away games than Manchester United this season which should not be ignored and only some early missed chances prevented Southampton from making it 3 away wins in a row in the Premier League when drawing 1-1 at Goodison Park on Thursday.

The Saints have created chances and will be encouraged by the success Bournemouth had here last weekend. Southampton have also scored at Tottenham Hotspur (two games), Manchester City (two games), Wolves, Arsenal, Chelsea and Leicester City this season so they won't be concerned by having to do that at Old Trafford.

At the same time it has to be noted that Southampton have conceded at least twice at Tottenham Hotspur (two games), Manchester City (two games), Arsenal and Liverpool and so the feeling is that this could be an attacking game with both teams having chances to find the net.

Both teams have hit the net when Manchester United and Southampton have met 3 times since Ralph Hasenhuttl has taken over as manager of the latter. Last season at Old Trafford a late goal helped Manchester United edge out Southampton 3-2 here, but games between these clubs have been competitive in recent seasons and this could be another one.

Manchester United and Southampton are both in decent form and I do think confidence will be flowing in both dressing rooms ahead of this fixture. I do think it will be a good, entertaining game, but Manchester United may edge out Southampton in a high-scoring fixture.

Keeping the big wins coming might be more difficult for Manchester United in the form that Southampton are showing, but I do think the home team can earn the three points.

MY PICKS: Norwich City-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals
Watford-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Sheffield United-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Wolves - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Aston Villa-Crystal Palace Both Teams to Score NO
Tottenham Hotspur-Arsenal Under 2.5 Goals
Bournemouth-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester United to Win & Over 2 Total Goals



Fantasy Football GameWeek 35+
There are only four rounds of the Premier League and thus the Fantasy Football game being run to play and I am off a disappointing week.

My failures have been clear and something that I want to improve next season- but I am on course for another 2000 points plus finish, although I can't afford to allow my judgement to be clouded by potential in the coming campaign.

In the main I have been happy enough with my selections, and I do think I can go with the same squad this week and look to make changes in GW 36+. Keeping two transfers for that GameWeek looks the best approach as I want to give some underperforming players the chance to redeem themselves in good looking fixtures this week.

My Free Hit chip is going to be used in GW38+ this season in which I will load up on attacking players in what is traditionally a high-scoring weekend. Things may be different this season as it will effectively be another 'pre-season' fixture for some teams who will be preparing for the 2020/21 campaign and the short turnaround between seasons.

However I do think it is the best time to use the Chip in lieu of the DGWs I had been preparing for before the pandemic changed everything for everyone.

This week the team looks like this:

Alisson (Liverpool v Burnley)

Virgil Van Dijk (Liverpool v Burnley)
Harry Maguire (Man United v Southampton)
Willy Boly (Wolves v Everton)

Kevin De Bruyne (Man City v Brighton)
Bruno Fernandes (Man United v Southampton)
Anthony Martial (Man United v Southampton)
Michail Antonio (West Ham United v Norwich City)
Christian Pulisic (Chelsea v Sheffield United)

Roberto Firmino (Liverpool v Burnley)
Raul Jimenez (Wolves v Everton)

Bench: Emiliano Martinez, Dwight Gayle, James Justin, Federico Fernandez

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