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Friday, 7 August 2020

Boxing Picks 2020- Terri Harper vs Natasha Jonas (August 7th)

You would just have to have something against Eddie Hearn and Matchroom Boxing if you described Fight Camp Week One as anything but a success.

There were some quality fights put on and the setting was pretty special in unprecedented times- with three more weeks of Fight Camp to come it does feel like a time when we can enjoy Boxing even through the troubles all around us.

Boxers deserve the chance to make some money at a time when so many have had careers put on hold and I don't begrudge those who wish to be on the current cards even with no fans in attendance.

There were teething issues with some criticising the artificial sound, but I was not too bothered and enjoyed the card where all of the fights were decent to watch. The main event between Sam Eggington and Ted Cheeseman lived up to most expectations to the point that I would not be disappointed if we saw a rematch, while James Tennyson continues to impress and be involved in great scraps.

Hopefully Week Two of Fight Camp lives up to the standards set with the cameras back at Matchroom HQ on Friday evening instead of Saturday for the next two weeks.


Anthony Fowler vs Adam Harper
There was a lot of hype around Anthony Fowler when he turned professional, but the defeat to Scott Fitzgerald sixteen months ago has just derailed the expected progression up the World Rankings.

The Liverpudlian has won three fights in a row since the close defeat to Fitzgerald, but Anthony Fowler has not really impressed in the manner you would have expected. A couple of comfortable Points wins over Brian Rose and Harry Scarff was followed by a First Round blitz of Theophilus Tetteh, but Fowler will know there are going to be eyes on him this Friday and he does want to show a lot more.

He has Ten Rounds to do that in against Adam Harper who is in the ring for the first time in a little under two years. Adam Harper has had some real ups and downs already as a professional, but he was almost medically retired in the months after becoming English Super Welterweight Champion before being given a chance to resume his career.

There has to be some nagging doubts about Harper in terms of whether it is the right move to get back in the ring despite being given the all clear, but the Boxer himself is keen on making up for lost time. A positive outlook on life means Adam Harper is willing to take risks to achieve his goals, but there is no doubt this would be a big step up even if he had been a very active fighter.

Instead Adam Harper comes in off a long lay off and facing an opponent who has been operating at a much higher level. There are a couple of decent wins on the Harper CV, but his sole loss was an easy Points defeat to Michael Zerafa in Australia and even the last win came via a Majority Decision against someone at English Title level.

Adam Harper understands there is an opportunity in front of him with a win over Anthony Fowler likely to set up a British Title shot, but it is very difficult to see him achieving that here. The latter has the better resume in getting to 12-1 as a professional and 'The Machine' is confident he can make a statement by putting a big performance on the board.

I do think Anthony Fowler can use his size and superior Boxing ability to comfortably get ahead on the cards and he should be able to start punishing Adam Harper once we get through the first couple of Rounds. There is no doubting that Harper has some toughness, but you do have to wonder if his corner will be looking out for a Boxer who was almost forced to medically retire from the sport.

My feeling is that this is either going to be a very wide Unanimous Decision for Fowler or a stoppage in the second half of the fight- my lean is that the Anthony Fowler will start finding real success from the middle of the bout and it may mean Adam Harper's corner decide to pull out their valiant man rather than allowing him to take unnecessary punishment and go out on his shield.

I would have little doubt that Adam Harper can show enough to be given another opportunity by Eddie Hearn, but on this night I expect Anthony Fowler to display the levels to the sport and come away with a second half stoppage. More than half of Anthony Fowler's previous nine stoppage wins have come in the second half of the scheduled Rounds and I think he will begin to tee off and find his range around the middle of this one before breaking down Adam Harper for a second half stoppage.


Chris Billam-Smith vs Nathan Thorley
Two Cruiserweight Boxers meet for the Commonwealth Cruiserweight Title on Friday and this is a big stepping stone to some top domestic fights as well as a chance to push on to European and World Title bids.

Chris Billam-Smith won the vacant Commonwealth Cruiserweight Title with an impressive stoppage of Craig Glover as he bounced back from a Split Decision defeat to Richard Riakporhe. That defeat was a contentious one and I do think Billam-Smith will be desperate to avenge it, but he can't overlook an unbeaten Nathan Thorley who will know he can move into a strong Ranking spot with a victory on Friday.

This is a big step up for the 27 year old who had tried to boil down to Light Heavyweight before deciding that Cruiserweight may be the best option for him. This is the first time Thorley will have been scheduled in a Twelve Round bout, while he has only been past the Sixth Round once before.

Nathan Thorley does not have a strong resume and only two of his fourteen wins have come against an opponent with a winning record. One of those opponents now holds a losing record, while the other had been stopped in the First Round twice before.

Taking on Chris Billam-Smith will be a real challenge for Nathan Thorley considering the obvious punching power that the former possesses. Nine of this ten wins have come by stoppage and he comfortably holds the best win of the two Boxers when crushing Craig Glover last November.

Both Boxers have not been in the ring for a competitive fight in 2020 and so it may be a slow start as they just shed some of the ring rust which can build up. Even then I do think Chris Billam-Smith will get into his stride fairly quickly against someone who has a lot more to prove in terms of being able to handle an opponent with this quality.

Nathan Thorley has been put down before despite not really facing anyone of note and I do think the Chris Billam-Smith punching power will be the difference maker. The 30 year old will be looking to make some noise to put his name forward for bigger fights in the coming months and Billam-Smith can do that with an early nights work in the Matchroom HQ garden.



Terri Harper vs Natasha Jonas
The truth of the matter is that Natasha Jonas was expected to move through the pro ranks and pick up a World Title while Terri Harper would have been working full time in a Fish 'n' Chips shop, but the last two years have moved vastly differently than those expectations.

In that time Terri Harper has not only become a World Champion, but also Unified part of the Division and there is a confidence behind her that will make it hard to shake her from the current path she is on.

In the other corner, Natasha Jonas is hoping for a fourth win in a row after the stunning upset defeat to Viviane Obenauf when being stopped in the Fourth Round. The amateur career was a good one, but Jonas has quickly found out it is a whole different ball game in the pros and that defeat came in the one fight where she has really stepped up the level of opponent.

Obenauf is one of two Boxers that Natasha Jonas has fought when they have held a winning record and both are common opponents with Terri Harper. The World Champion beat Obenauf comfortably on points and also stopped Feriche Mashauri, an opponent that Jonas had to beat on points.

The 'one fighter beat an opponent that the other fighter lost to' argument is one that rarely works in Boxing, but I do think Terri Harper has shown a considerably higher upside than Natasha Jonas. I am not going to get into the mind games of the suggestion that Harper was Knocked Out in sparring which has been released by the Jonas camp and I do think that the latter is going to be stepping up to a level in which she struggled the only other time she has done that.

Terri Harper might only have stopped half of the opponents she has faced, but she has Knocked Down others and I do think she hits plenty hard enough to hurt Natasha Jonas. The underdog's best chance may be to make this a firefight and see whether she can land something special, but I think Harper will control her behind the jab early on and will force Jonas onto a counter which will hurt her.

The World Champion has had more Rounds in the bank at a higher level than Natasha Jonas and I do think she is going to be too strong for her here. There is a chance that Jonas bites down on the gum-shield and finds her way to the cards, but I think Harper will take over the fight in the mid-Rounds and has shown she can punch with enough authority to take out the former Olympian.

The two minute Rounds in Women's Boxing does their side of the sport no favours in all honesty, but Terri Harper can still make a big statement by stopping an opponent who had a 'bigger future' in the sport when both began as pros.


Kerman Lejarraga vs Tyrone Nurse
It really felt like Spain had a huge monster fighter at the Welterweight level when Kerman Lejarraga ripped his way through to 27-0, but stoppage losses to David Avanesyan (twice) have meant a change in plan.

The second defeat came inside the First Round and Lejarraga decided he would move up to Light Middleweight and try and rebuild his career there.

He has won two fights at that weight class and now takes on British fighter Tyrone Nurse who is also looking to move up a Division and try his luck there.

Tyrone Nurse had been on a run of four straight defeats and his career looked to have stalled permanently, but he has won two in a row since then. Both have come in Six Round fights against opponents with losing records, but Nurse has never been stopped and that looks like being the biggest challenge in front of the home favourite.

The underdog has been down in a number of fights before though and I do think the Kerman Lejarraga power is for real and can break down Tyrone Nurse in this one. There are some mental demons in the mind of Lejarraga which comes with the kind of stoppage losses he had to David Avanesyan, but he is also a deadly finisher when he has someone hurt.

Kerman Lejarraga should have the power to hurt Tyrone Nurse and I do think he has enough time to become the first fighter to stop him. When the Spaniard tends to hurt an opponent he does find a way to get the job done and even in a Ten Rounder there may be enough moments where he can start putting it on Tyrone Nurse and force the stoppage.

MY PICKS: Anthony Fowler to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Chris Billam-Smith to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Terri Harper to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Kerman Lejarraga to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

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