NBA PlayOffs First Round Picks 2020 (August 17-30)

NBA PlayOffs 2020- First Round Series

No matter which way we cut it, the NBA PlayOffs are going to have a different feel this year even if the format has been maintained.

Simply playing in the NBA bubble is strange enough with home court advantage no longer an issue and I do think it does bring up the potential of some strange Series.

For those of us who look back at previous trends to figure out how the PlayOffs may develop it does become a little more difficult. I do think home court is huge at this time of the NBA season, while the intensity of playing a real road game in the PlayOffs is something that even the best players in the history of the game have struggled with at times.

Even with all that in mind, I am not going to suggest the Champion is not 'real' or deserves an 'asterisk' by their name- ultimately teams still have to win best of seven Series and while it would be a lot different with true home advantage, there is still enough in these games to see a genuine top team emerge.

My feeling going into the start of the PlayOffs is that one of the two Los Angeles clubs will represent the Western Conference with my lean being towards the Clippers.

For my early predictions, I do think the Boston Celtics-Toronto Raptors potential Semi Final Series in the Eastern Conference may produce the eventual NBA Finalist, but things can change very quickly. Injuries are always a huge factor as we saw in the NBA Finals in June 2019 when the Golden State Warriors were short-handed, while the removal of home court could still play havoc with the mindset of teams.

At the end of it all I am looking forward to the PlayOffs as I do every season- the intensity should still be on the court and I am expecting some drama. The First Round does have some interesting match ups which could be great to watch, and the PlayOffs always get better and better through each passing Round.

In this thread I will collate the NBA First Round Series picks on a day by day basis before starting a new thread for the Conference Semi Finals which begin at the end of the month.

Monday 17th August

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Home court won't exist in the NBA PlayOffs over the next couple of months, but we are into the PlayOffs and that does mean exciting times for fans of Basketball.

The opening First Round Game 1 comes from the Western Conference in the NBA bubble in Orlando where Adam Silver will be very proud of the successes against Coronavirus to this point. The players have to be given credit for taking things seriously and sticking to the rules, but the constant threat cannot be treated complacently if we are going to see the NBA PlayOffs progress as we all want to see.

Opening up is the Denver Nuggets, the Number 3 Seed, taking on the Utah Jazz, the Number 6 Seed and both teams have questions to answer in the Series. Not many would be expecting Denver or Utah to challenge for the NBA Championship, but both teams will be looking at the other and feeling there is a real opportunity to progress.

Neither team is at full strength going into the PlayOffs- Utah were already missing the presence of Bojan Bogdanovic, but Mike Conley has also left the bubble to be at the birth of his child. Those two players were key for Utah in the regular season before the unexpected break in play, and both would have been key contributors in the PlayOffs so their absences will be felt by the Jazz.

On the other side the Denver Nuggets look like they will be missing Will Barton and Gary Harris for at least Game 1 of the Series. Both have been absent in the Seeding portion of the NBA bubble and it has seen the Nuggets struggle on the Defensive side of the court.

The question for Utah is whether they can find more from someone other than Donovan Mitchell to expose those vulnerabilities. The Jazz have been shooting the ball well enough from the field and they will be particularly keen to hurt the Nuggets from the three point arc where Denver have allowed opponents to shoot at over 44% in their last five games in the bubble.

There has been enough from the Utah players to believe they can at least hurt the Nuggets from the three point range and that should give them a chance to stay with them as the underdog in Game 1. The size around the boards also helps Utah, although this is going to be a tough game simply because their own Defensive performances have not been up to the level that may be required.

As poor as Denver have been Defensively, they have been shooting the ball at over 50% from the field in their last five games and Utah have allowed 48% at the same time. Michael Porter Jr has been compared with Kevin Durant and has stepped up his level in the bubble as Denver have dipped into their rotation through injury and he can have an important outing for the Nuggets.

Nikola Jokic has proven to be a tough match up for Utah throughout this season too and can have another big outing for the Nuggets who will use the 2019 PlayOff experiences to help them this time around.

Denver have won all three regular season games between the teams, but those have come by a combined 11 points. In the NBA bubble, the Nuggets needed to rally in the Fourth Quarter to force Overtime and eventually overcame the Jazz, but the feeling is that we are going to see another close game especially knowing how porous the Denver Defensive unit have been.

The Jazz have a 9-2 record against the spread in their last eleven games as the underdog. On the other side the Nuggets are 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen PlayOff games as the favourite.


Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors Game 1 Pick: The defending NBA Champions were supposed to take a backwards step in the 2019/20 season because they had lost a key component of the team that won the title in June 2019. Kawhi Leonard moved on from the Toronto Raptors after helping their secure the Championship in his one and only season in Canada, but his influence on a young roster has clearly helped those remaining take a step forward in their career.

Instead of falling away in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors enter the NBA PlayOffs as the Number 2 Seed and there will be plenty of people who believe they have enough to at least reach the NBA Finals. They are strong favourites to come through this First Round Series and some will be looking out for the sweep, but the Brooklyn Nets have performed better than the sum of their parts.

This always looked like a transitional season for the Nets despite going into the campaign having signed Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving. The former was expected to miss the whole season, while the latter shut things down before the resumption of play in July and the Nets entered the NBA bubble looking like they were short-handed.

They looked to have enough in the bank to at least earn a PlayOff spot in a weak Conference, but the Nets have been better than advertised having won five of their eight Seeding games in the bubble. Caris LeVert has been a huge influence on the team and, at worst, he has given teams a chance to assess whether he can be an important piece for them in the future even if he doesn't necessarily fit with a fully healthy Brooklyn rotation.

While they are short-handed and not on the same level as the Raptors from a talent perspective, Brooklyn are a team that can get hot from the three point range and that is going to be the key for them. They do launch a lot of three pointers and the Raptors Defense, as good as it is, can be vulnerable at allowing space for shooters from that distance.

A fast start will be important for the Nets to at least challenge the Toronto Raptors, although a cold shooting display from the three point arc will put them under pressure.

Things should be a little more consistent for the Toronto Raptors on the Offensive side of the court and the Brooklyn Nets have allowed their last five opponents to average 47% from the field. That isn't really going to cut it if they want to secure the upset of the Number 2 Seed, while the Raptors look to have the edge on the glass which can really see the game turn in their favour.

On the face of things it is hard to see beyond the Toronto Raptors, but the double digit start on the handicap is a big one for the Brooklyn Nets. The latter are 3-1 against the spread as the underdog being given at least 10 points start, while Toronto are 5-14 against the spread in Game 1 of a PlayOff Series including losing outright as a huge favourite in Game 1 of the First Round against the Orlando Magic in 2019.

The Nets are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the underdog, while they are 2-2 against the spread in the four regular season games with the Toronto Raptors this season. The last game was back in February and Brooklyn look a lot different now, but only one of their three losses to the Raptors have come by more than 8 points.

Brooklyn have covered in six of their last seven games in the NBA bubble and a rested Toronto team may wear them down in this Series. That means I am expecting Game 1 to be a competitive one though and taking the vast amount of the points with the underdog looks to be the right call.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: This looks to be one of the better First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs, but some of the intrigue around it may have been lessened by the injury suffered by Ben Simmons. The Philadelphia 76ers did win three of the four regular season games against the Boston Celtics, but they are 2-3 in the bubble without Simmons and his Offensive and Defensive output is going to be very difficult to replace.

That isn't to say that the 76ers have lost their identity completely and Joel Embiid has proven to be a huge threat to the Boston Celtics. Al Horford will know a fair bit about the young Celtics players looking to become NBA stars with strong PlayOff showings, but Philadelphia will be the first to admit they need to be a lot better Defensively if they are going win four of seven games in this Series.

Even with Simmons sidelined, the 76ers have averaged over 120 points per game in the five games missed by the Shooting Guard. They have been shooting an impressive 48% from the field and 42% from three point range and Celtics Head Coach Brad Stevens is the first to admit that the 76ers still have one of the stronger Offensive teams in the NBA.

However, Stevens will also have a lot of belief in his young Celtics team who have been showing tremendous energy on the Defensive side of the court. Finding answers to Embiid might be beyond most teams, but the Celtics will feel they can contest the three point shooters and Boston will be looking to make someone other than the big man beat them.

Boxing him out and winning the battle on the glass will be important for the Celtics who won five of the eight games played in the NBA bubble. The Defensive intensity also allows Boston to get out quickly in transition and they have to be confident the likes of Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Kemba Walker are ready to explode in the NBA PlayOffs.

The Celtics have been shooting at over 48% from the field in their last five games and also averaging 120 points per game, although that number is inflated from the win over the Brooklyn Nets when scoring 149 points. The success from the field can't be ignored though and Philadelphia have looked loose on the Defensive side of the court since Ben Simmons went down for the remainder of the season.

The team that gets hot from the three point arc may have a big advantage in the First Round Series, but I think Boston have more ways to beat the 76ers compared with the other way around. The stronger Defensive performances could be key overall and I do think the Celtics can open with a strong win in Game 1 of the Series.

Boston may have lost three of the four regular season games, but they did blow out Philadelphia the last time they met in February.

The Celtics are 15-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty-one games when having three or more days rest between games and they are 12-5 against the spread in the last seventeen against Philadelphia.

All season the 76ers have struggled when facing the better teams in the NBA as shown by their 12-17-1 record against the spread when playing teams with winning records. I think that could be the case in Game 1 as the Boston Celtics find the superior Defensive effort to pull away.


Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 1 Pick: A team that has come on leaps and bounds in the 2019/20 season in the NBA are looking to build some PlayOff experience as the Dallas Mavericks get set for Game 1 on Monday. Not many will be tipping up the Mavericks to win the Series, but Luka Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis has sparked a young team who have perhaps moved further along this season than they imagined, despite holding out big hopes for the team in the future.

The match up looks like being a difficult one for the Dallas Mavericks as they take on the Number 2 Seed in the Western Conference in the Los Angeles Clippers. Last season the Clippers made the flashy decision to sign both Kawhi Leonard and Paul George to help an overachieving young roster take the next step.

There is some real talent in the Clippers rotation and adding Leonard and George has helped the team take another step forward to the point that many consider them the favourites to win the Western Conference. With Leonard having already won the NBA Championship with two different teams, the San Antonio Spurs and the Toronto Raptors, the Clippers do feel they have enough to go very deep in the NBA PlayOffs even in the new bubble situation.

Patrick Beverley is going to miss at least Game 1 of the Series which is a blow, but the Clippers bench will be boosted by a returning Montrezl Harrell who missed time in the bubble due to the death of his grandmother. He has passed all quarantine checks now and Harrell will be playing with motivation and has already proven a huge boost for the Clippers when relieving the starters.

The Clippers have won four of their last five games in the bubble so there is some momentum behind them. At this point I would expect both teams are comfortable with the situation, but the Clippers may be salivating at the chance of taking on a Dallas Defensive unit that have allowed their last five opponents to average almost 49% of made shots from the field.

With the Offensive talent in the Los Angeles rotation I do think they can hurt the Mavericks while the Clippers are also hitting plenty of three pointers to put the pressure on opponents.

Even with that in mind, I don't think it will be an easy Series for the Clippers against a Dallas team with youth on their side. This time the PlayOffs will feel different for Doncic and Porzingis without the pressure of playing in intense road environments.

The Mavericks are going to feel they can do plenty of battle with the Clippers on the glass to try and win the time of possession. That is important, but Dallas also have to show more consistency when shooting the ball than they have in their recent games in the bubble.

An over-reliance on Doncic and Porzingis makes life difficult for the Mavericks against a more rounded team like the Clippers. There will be moments when those two young players take over, but Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are intense Defensively and able to get very hot Offensively which gives the favourites and higher Seed an edge.

I have to respect the fact that Dallas have been very productive as a big underdog of 5 or more points all season. They have cashed plenty in that spot, but they are 13-14 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.

Los Angeles Clippers have won all three regular season games between these teams in the 2019/20 season and two of those wins came by at least 15 points. One of those big wins was in the NBA bubble earlier this month so the Clippers will be plenty confident even without the Defensive talents of Patrick Beverley.

The Clippers have not trended well as the PlayOff favourite in recent games in that spot, but this is a much different looking Los Angeles team. They are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games against Western Conference opponents and I think the Clippers win Game 1 by a decent margin.


Tuesday 18th August
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 1 Pick: The Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference are the favourites to win the NBA Championship, although that has come as something of a surprise to the Milwaukee Bucks themselves. A poor 3-5 record in the NBA bubble will be a slight concern for the Bucks, but they should not have too many problems in this First Round Series against the Orlando Magic.

While the Bucks will feel they can right their performances and get back to the kind of level shown before the break in play, the Magic actually slipped from Number 7 to Number 8 during the NBA bubble. Either way Orlando would have faced a very tough First Round Series, but the Bucks might be as bad a match up as they could have had having lost all four regular season games against them.

It doesn't help the Magic that they are likely going to be short-handed throughout the Series. Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross look like they will suit up, but Jonathan Isaac is out for the season and Mo Bamba is out of the NBA bubble for at least the first two games.

Add in the injury concerns surrounding Aaron Gordon and Michael Carter-Williams and you get a sense that this will be a very difficult game for the Orlando Magic.

They will be looking to shoot well from the three point arc and hope that can put some pressure on the Milwaukee Bucks. However this has been an issue for Orlando all season and it does make it very difficult to believe they can keep up with the Bucks no matter how inconsistent the Number 1 Seed have been so far.

Steve Clifford has made it clear his team need to shoot well from the three point arc but also win the rebounding battle and it looks like a tall task on both accounts.

Milwaukee look a lot healthier than the Magic and the Bucks have been more efficient from the field in their most recent games. There is still some real room for improvement and the Bucks are using the defeat in the Eastern Conference Finals to eventual Champions Toronto Raptors as a motivational tool as they look to take the next step or two in their progress as a team.

Giannis Antetokounmpo should be well rested and I think the Magic will struggle to find an answer to him. The Bucks have won all four regular season games against this opponent by at least 9 points and two of those wins came in blow out defeats.

The Magic have a 9-18-2 record against the spread when playing a team with a winning record. Milwaukee have a 2-5-1 record against the spread in their last eight games against Orlando and I think they will prove to be a little too good all around for one of the weaker teams in the PlayOffs who are missing some key members of the rotation.


Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game 1 Pick: In usual circumstances the Indiana Pacers win over the Miami Heat a few days ago would have been a crucial one as it would have given them home advantage in this First Round Series. Now there really isn't much of a factor in being either the Number 4 or the Number 5 Seed and most would likely have the lower Seeded Miami Heat as the favourites to progress to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals.

There is a real storyline at play involving Jimmy Butler and TJ Warren who had a major falling out when these teams met earlier in the regular season. The former has sought to downplay things, and Warren has followed suit, but both players will be looking to impact this game on the court and lead their team to a victory.

TJ Warren did have a huge showing in the NBA bubble to lead the Indiana Pacers into the PlayOffs with some momentum, but it has been a tough time for him when he faces the Miami Heat. The Pacers have won three of their last four games and Warren has been the key player behind their success, especially as Indiana are going to be missing Domantas Sabonis.

Myles Turner is expected to be playing on Tuesday, but he has missed time and he may be limited at best too. That makes it a tough game for the Pacers against a Miami Heat team who have been better than the sum of their parts and have looked like a team that could potentially play spoiler in the post-season.

Defensively Miami do put some real intensity on the court, and that will challenge this Indiana team. However, the Pacers do also believe they are strong enough Defensively to challenge any team they face and I do think there will be times when both teams struggle to put the ball in the basket.

The Heat look to have the edge with Jimmy Butler being the best player on the court and he could make the difference along with a stronger rotation. Those minutes in relief of the starters could be key to the outcome of this first game, but I would not be surprised to see a close game which is decided deep into the Fourth Quarter.

Miami took the first three games in the regular season against Indiana which includes a game in the NBA bubble. However, the Pacers got a measure of revenge by winning the second game in the bubble between these teams and at least have some confidence to take into this game.

The Pacers do have a very good 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight games as an underdog which has to be respected. They are an experienced team and Miami are only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight against Indiana.

Even with all that in mind, I think the Miami Heat will show they are the stronger team in the Series by taking Game 1 and I think they can do that while covering the spread.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Game 1 Pick: This is a First Round NBA PlayOff Series which is going to be dominated by the Chris Paul-Russell Westbrook trade which was executed before the season began. The Oklahoma City Thunder took on Chris Paul and the feeling was that this was going to be a season of transition for them, while the Houston Rockets were expected to see Russell Westbrook partner James Harden to challenge the two Los Angeles clubs in the Western Conference.

The Rockets have gone all in on Mike D'Antoni's system after trading away Clint Capela, but they do go into Game 1 without Westbrook and that is a blow to the entire team. Houston have lost three in a row heading into the First Round of the PlayOffs and they have just struggled to find some consistency Offensively without Westbrook around.

No one is going to doubt the ability James Harden has and he can lead his team to success in any game the Rockets play, while Harden may benefit from Luguentz Dort's absence for the Thunder.

This should open things up for James Harden, but the Houston Rockets will have to be perfect to win this Series. And that is especially in games without the drive and intensity of Russell Westbrook as Houston have struggled to hit their shots from the three point range and will also have a very difficult time winning the rebounding battle.

The Rockets will be going up against Oklahoma City who have been very strong Defensively all season and particularly impressing in the NBA bubble. If they accept that James Harden will get his points, the Thunder will be looking to make sure the other role players are not able to get going and that should give Oklahoma City the chance to take Game 1 of the Series.

Chris Paul and company have to show a little more Offensively if they are going to keep surprising teams as they have for much of the last twelve months. They have only been averaging 40% from the field in their last five games and the Thunder have lost three of those games, but Oklahoma City may make full use of Steven Adams to dominate the paint and also try and expose some of the Houston Defensive deficiencies which have been seen in the last few games.

I would expect the Thunder to win the battle on the boards and they are 10-2 against the spread when favoured by less than 5 points this season.

The Thunder have won the last two in the regular season against the Houston Rockets, although these teams meet for the first time since January. They have also covered the spread in their last five games against the Rockets.

I do have to respect the fact that Houston have a 15-7 record against the spread in their last twenty-two games as an underdog. They have a player in Harden who can take the game away from any opponent, but I think the absence of Russell Westbrook will just take away some of the Rockets Offensive ability.

Oklahoma City have had a few Offensive issues of their own, but Chris Paul should be highly motivated and I think he will make the plays to see his team edge Game 1.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 1 Pick: After reaching the Western Conference Finals last season the Portland Trail Blazers have had to dig deep to merely make the PlayOffs this time around. The strong play in the NBA bubble allowed the Trail Blazers to finish with the Number 8 Seed and the Play In win over the Memphis Grizzlies was enough to make sure they have a couple of days to rest before this First Round Series begins.

Even with that rest you can't ignore the fact it has been an intense time for the Portland Trail Blazers and there is a worry that they have invested too much emotionally to be able to come out and compete from the off in this Series. For a number of days the Trail Blazers have been needing to win after win on the board to have a shot at making the PlayOffs and that can take its toll on this group of players.

One benefit for the Trail Blazers may be the fact that they have been in PlayOff mode for a while. That has not been the case for the Los Angeles Lakers who have lost four of their last five games in the NBA bubble and who have lost the advantage they should have had by finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

The Lakers have LeBron James and Anthony Davis and you do have to think they will rally into form sooner than later, but you also can't turn things on and off like a tap. The poor shooting, especially from three point range, will be something that worries the Lakers even if they get through this Series and it may be where they are eventually caught out.

They can build some momentum with their shooting in this First Round Series against the Portland Defensive unit which has allowed teams to average over 50% from the field and over 46% from three point range in their last five games. Even the Lakers can find their rhythm in this one, but the bigger challenge may be keeping the Trail Blazers to getting their own players into shooting rhythm which has been the case in the NBA bubble.

Damian Lillard has been in brilliant form and he is being backed up by his team-mates which has helped the Trail Blazers shoot very well from the field. They will believe they can expose any lack of intensity that the Lakers have on the Defensive side of the court, while I also think Portland have the size to win the battle on the boards and earn those second chance points.

Frank Vogel has recognised how good the Trail Blazers can be Offensively and it is that side of the court which could help Portland keep this one close even through the emotions of recent outings. They have momentum and also won the last game against the Lakers back in January and there is no doubt that Portland have plenty of belief in their ability to upset the odds in this Series.

Portland are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games as an underdog, while the Los Angeles Lakers have failed to cover in their last five games. The Trail Blazers have also produced a 46-22 against the spread in their last sixty-eight games against the Los Angeles Lakers and I do think they are getting enough points to keep this one close.


Wednesday 19th August
Brooklyn Nets @ Toronto Raptors Game 2 Pick: I guess winning a NBA Championship means a team will break a lot of previous trends associated with a franchise- the Toronto Raptors certainly showed that off by demolishing the Brooklyn Nets in Game 1 of this First Round Series, a game they have historically struggled with including losing in the First Round Game 1 against the Orlando Magic back in April 2019.

The Raptors bounced back to win in five games against the Magic last season and three of the four wins needed came in blow out fashion. There might be a different situation with the win in Game 1 this time around, but the Raptors will be keen to put their foot down in this one and make the Series a pretty straight-forward one for them.

My feeling was that the Brooklyn Nets could potentially catch the Raptors cold in Game 1 especially with a huge spread behind them, but they were blown out pretty early. Even the rally in the second half didn't last long enough to make the game more interesting and the Nets look like a team that are going to live and die by the three pointer.

In Game 1 the Nets only managed to hit 31% from the three point arc and that was never going to be enough to contain a Toronto team that hit 22 three pointers and at a 50% clip. It is difficult to imagine the Raptors and Nets both being able to have a similar output in this one as I would expect better from the latter and perhaps a slip from the former, but even then it is hard to find the avenues from which Brooklyn can have a sustained success.

Toronto look to have a considerable edge when it comes to the depth of their rotation and another slow start from the Brooklyn Nets will be very difficult to overcome. Once again I would expect the Raptors to not allow Caris LeVert to beat them and that means the pressure is on the Brooklyn role players to have a much bigger all around performance in this Game 2.

I do think the Nets will look to make some adjustments to try and free up LeVert to be a bigger scoring threat, but it still feels like a Series that is only going to go in one direction.

I am not expecting a 24 point blowout like we saw in Game 1, but I still think the Raptors may be able to cover a slightly larger number than the one we got in Game 1. While I thought it was possible for the Nets to get really hot and make it a close run thing against a historically poor performing Game 1 team, this time the feeling is that Toronto are going to put their foot down and move into a position to close the Series by the weekend.

There has been a trend of teams off a double digit loss being given double digit points on the handicap bouncing back in the NBA First Round over the years, but this is a different tournament with the games being played inside the bubble. The Brooklyn Nets just don't look like they match up very well with the Raptors and barring a complete off day in the field I do think most of the games will be comfortably won by Toronto going forward in this Series.

The Nets have proven to be a scrappy team that does deserve my respect considering they are 5-0 against the spread in their last five games coming off a defeat by 10 or more points. Brooklyn have also played well in the bubble and Toronto have not always followed big wins with success, but they are 5-2 against the spread as a double digit favourite this season.

At some point I expect the Raptors to just exert enough effort on both ends of the court to pull away and I think they will cover in Game 2.


Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: Donovan Mitchell held his hands up and took some of the blame for the fact that the Utah Jazz blew a big lead in the final moments of Game 1 of this Series and ultimately were undone in Overtime. His backcourt violation saw the first game swing against the Jazz, but Mitchell was an important figure giving Utah a chance to win having produced 57 points which is a number in a single PlayOff Game that has only been bettered by two other players.

One of those is Michael Jordan so it is in illustrious company that Mitchell's performance sits, while he is also the youngest player since Jordan to score at least 50 points in a PlayOff Game. There is no doubting that Donovan Mitchell is going to be a star in the NBA, if he is not already, but Utah also have to know they missed a big chance to move ahead in the Series.

It was another youngster who grabbed the headlines with a huge Fourth Quarter as Jamal Murray put up 36 points in Game 1 and 20 of those coming in the Fourth and Overtime. Murray hit some huge three pointers to keep the Nuggets in touch when it looked like they were going to slip to a defeat in Game 1 and he is going to be an important figure for them again.

Both teams will once again go into Game 2 with some key performers on both sides of the court missing. Mike Conley has returned to the bubble, but he needs to get through a few days quarantining before he is allowed back on the court and that means Utah will be relying very much on Donovan Mitchell and hoping one or two of the role players can step up their play.

Denver will be without both Gary Harris and Will Barton for another game and neither looks to be approaching a return. Like Game 1, Denver will look for someone to step up in the clutch moments to take over and they do have strong personalities who can do that in what feels like another very close game.

It made the points appealing, but I do wonder if Utah can match the intensity of Game 1 especially having lost in the manner they did. However I expect the Jazz to be aided by the continued porous Defensive performances produced by the Denver Nuggets and that points to another potentially high-scoring game.

Both games in the bubble between these two Western Conference teams have gone into Overtime, but both have seen plenty of points scored in regulation time too. A cold day from three point range for either team could really change the momentum of the Series, but neither Defensive unit can be confident of their ability to stop the other and it may mean another huge Offensive output.

There is a considerable trend for both teams which points to the over hitting in Game 2 and I will look for that to be the outcome here.


Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: The First Round Series between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics was already missing Ben Simmons which seemed to have swung the pendulum in favour of the the higher Seed. The Celtics did indeed win Game 1 of the Series, but it wasn't all good news for Boston fans as Gordon Hayward picked up an injury which is going to cost him up to a month.

That likely means Hayward misses the Conference Semi Finals, if Boston get there, and potentially even the Conference Finals and will have a huge impact on the Celtics. It does remove some of the depth of the rotation and Boston already know they are in for a fight having had to dig down deep to win Game 1 on Monday evening.

The eventual 8 point win looks relatively comfortable, but the 76ers were right in the game until the very end. Philadelphia looked stronger around the boards, but they will be looking for more from Joel Embiid or they could find themselves in a significant hole before they 'host' two games in the NBA bubble.

Philadelphia will be a little frustrated with their Fourth Quarter performance considering the foundation laid in Game 1. There was every chance that they were going to steal the first game in the PlayOff if they had just stuck with the game plan when things got a little tense, while the absence of Hayward does potentially give the Philadelphia bench an edge in the middle portion of Game 2.

The public money has remained with the Boston Celtics and there are one or two concerning aspects of the way the 76ers played down the stretch in a close game. Playing in the bubble could make teams a little more ready to collapse if the PlayOff Series go against them as they will have already been missing home, but I don't believe the 76ers are ready to leave just yet.

Small adjustments are needed as they look to take care of the ball much better than they did in Game 1, while the 76ers will be looking for a little better transition between Defense and Offense. Those are issues I do feel they can address and the 76ers have proven they can match up well with the Boston Celtics which suggests the points available in Game 2 could be worth taking.

This season the Philadelphia 76ers have tended to be over-rated if their struggles to cover the spread against teams with winning records is anything to go by. However, I do think the absence of Gordon Hayward could help the 76ers keep this one closer and I expect them to play very hard to level the Series and this time Philadelphia can stay within the number.

Boston will be playing with confidence having come through some tough moments in Game 1, but this feels like a Series that will go at least six games. I expect a tense Game 2 which is important to both teams and I think it is entirely possible that both teams just slow things down a touch in a low-scoring game.

I did consider backing this Game 2 to land lower than the total set, but my bigger lean is that the 76ers keep this one close so will take the points with the underdog.


Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 2 Pick: Some frustrations came to the fore in Game 1 of this First Round Series and it may have been the moment the Dallas Mavericks missed their chance to upset the odds and steal a 1-0 lead over the Los Angeles Clippers. Kristaps Porzingis was thrown out of Game 1 in the Third Quarter and Luka Doncic was not able to see off an experienced opponent who are arguably the favourites to win the NBA Championship in the bubble.

Not many would have agreed that Porzingis deserved to be removed from Game 1, but ultimately it is what the Mavericks had to deal with. He had a strong game before that and Doncic scored 42 points despite dealing with the top Clippers Defenders, although the 11 turnovers can't be repeated if the Mavericks are going to win Game 2.

Dallas will also be looking for more from the role players outside of Doncic and Porzingis, but it is difficult to imagine that the Clippers are not a lot better than they were in Game 1. Despite opening up with an 18-2 run, Los Angeles were not really able to exert the control of Game 1 that they would have liked and Doc Rivers was the first to admit that the Clippers need to be better.

Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Marcus Morris all had strong games, but the Clippers pride themselves on the depth of the rotation and will be expecting more from the bench. Getting that out of those players will just make life that much easier for the Clippers who also benefited from having Patrick Beverley and Montrezl Harrell back, although both were perhaps a little rusty.

Having that game in their legs will at least push both Beverley and Harrell along and that could be a key in Game 2 to help the Clippers just make life a little easier.

As well as Dallas played, it can't be ignored that they eventually lost and you have to think things will be tougher in this one. The Mavericks shot 46% from the field, but I do think the Los Angeles Clippers will be somewhat tougher Defensively as they try and wear down Luka Doncic while also putting a number of hard-nosed players in front of him throughout the 48 minutes they compete.

It also can't be ignored that the Mavericks are now 2-7 against the spread in their last nine games in the NBA bubble and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a straight up loss. They are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games as the underdog, while some Dallas players may feel they missed a big opportunity in the first game of the Series.

The Los Angeles Clippers have covered in their last five games against a team with a winning record and they have beaten Dallas all four times they have played them in the 2019/20 season. Three of those four wins have come by at least 8 point margins and I will look for the Clippers to be better all around in this one which should lead to another cover.


Thursday 20th August
Miami Heat @ Indiana Pacers Game 2 Pick: No one will ever doubt the guts and determination this Indiana Pacers team have, but ultimately in the NBA PlayOffs it can come down to those players capable of performing in the clutch and those that have yet to prove they can do that. Jimmy Butler rose up and made some big plays in the Fourth Quarter to help the Miami Heat ice the game and take a 1-0 lead in the Series and now it is up to the Pacers to have someone step up to the plate and try and level things up before they meet again this weekend.

The story going into the first game was whether the Butler and TJ Warren rivalry would take centre stage, but neither player really got into it with the other and instead looked for their basketball to do the talking. It was Butler who won the first round having scored 28 points, while Warren managed 22, but it was the late daggers that took the headlines.

Jimmy Butler will be the first to tell you that his team-mates were also vitally important to help the Heat get over the line and secure the win. The likes of Andre Iguodala have plenty of experience and can inspire the rest of the roster and he had some very positive minutes guarding TJ Warren in Game 1.

Three players other than Jimmy Butler also scored at least 15 points in Game 1 for the Miami Heat and the pressure is on the Indiana Pacers to find more shooting. The Pacers Defensive unit have played better than what they showed in Game 1, but the loss of Victor Oladipo is another blow for a team that have been challenged Offensively.

Indiana are also facing up to a Miami team who have prided themselves on the way they have Defended through the season and made the necessary stops to take a Series lead. I do think the Pacers will make this a competitive game, but they are struggling outside of Warren and Malcolm Brogdan for scoring and need to have a much bigger advantage on the boards if the Pacers are going to win this one.

The Heat have now won four of the five games played between these teams in the 2019/20 season. With Indiana suffering for depth of rotation they might be able to stay with Miami for a while, but the feeling is that a similar Fourth Quarter to Game 1 is likely to be in the offing which allows the Heat to pull away in Game 2 too.

I have to respect the fact that the Indiana Pacers have a very strong record when coming off a loss and the Miami Heat have not been cashing at the window when playing after a straight up win. This is a slightly bigger spread than Game 1 too, but I believe the Miami Heat to have the better players Offensively and more options to hurt the Pacers too.

It wouldn't surprise me if this is another game which does not surpass the total points line set, but I am going to stay with the same selection as Game 1 and that is backing the Miami Heat to cover.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Game 2 Pick: Game 1 of the First Round Series between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Houston Rockets ended in a blow out for the higher Seed who also happened to be the underdog on the day. The layers have quickly changed their minds about the ability of the two teams and that means the Rockets are going into Game 2 as the favourites and it is going to take some real adjustments for the Thunder to make things closer.

There are some areas in which the Thunder can improve in Game 2 and that is getting more from the back court after Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder who only combined for 35 points in Game 1. You do have to believe that those three players are going to be better in this game, but the Thunder need them to perform right from the off to prevent the Houston Rockets getting away as they did a couple of days ago.

Playing the new look Rockets surprised the Oklahoma City who admit there isn't much to work out from a Defensive point of view, but finding a way to slow down Houston is going to be far from easy.

The Rockets are a team who will look to provide a heavy dose of three point shooting and hope it opens up the driving lane. The decision to remove the last real big man on the roster to play a smaller line up is one that has had its up and downs for Houston, but they made a very fast start in Game 1 from three point range which allowed them to control the tempo of the game.

Even without Russell Westbrook the Rockets were able to do what they want thanks to the performance of Eric Gordon. James Harden had a strong game and will be expected to lead from the front again, but it was the performance of Gordon, PJ Tucker, Jeff Green and Ben McLemore which really was the key to the outcome for the Rockets.

Houston managed to put up 52 three pointers in Game 1 and I have little reason to believe they are going to change tact in this one. The big question for Houston is whether they can repeat the 38% clip they were hitting the deep shot at in Game 1 considering in their last five games the Rockets have averaged 30% from the three point arc.

Opening up the Defense by hitting the three pointers will help Houston take control of things again and I do think they are likely to have another strong showing in Game 2.

It is hard to be confident when you think of the change in the spread mark between Game 1 and Game 2, but Houston look like they will be able to produce a similar level of output in this one. They certainly look more than capable of sustaining their levels which will put plenty of pressure on Oklahoma City.

Oklahoma City are 10-2 against the spread in their last twelve games when coming off a double digit loss and they are 41-20 against the spread as the underdog. Both trends need to be respected and I do think the Thunder will be better than in Game 1, but it may not be enough to bridge the gap we saw.

The change in mindset for the players could play a part in this one with the expectation a little firmer on the Houston shoulders. They have responded very well to big wins though and while Luguentz Dort is absent I do think Houston have enough of an edge in this one.


Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 2 Pick: Losing home court advantage is a particular problem for the Number 1 Seeds in both Conferences having worked so hard to host their side of the NBA PlayOffs in the regular season. It is still no excuse to suffer a First Round exit though and the Milwaukee Bucks go into Game 2 of this Series under some pressure to respond.

The Bucks were a huge favourite over the Orlando Magic, but for the second year in a row the Magic were able to upset the odds by not only covering the spread, but winning outright. It was a fairly comfortable win for the Magic who hit 49% from the field and 39% from three point range in the upset.

At the same time they restricted Milwaukee to 43% and 33% in the same categories and the Bucks are now 3-6 inside the NBA bubble despite finishing with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference. There will be a few concerns for fans that the Bucks will not be able to turn on a switch and produce better performances after the long struggles inside the bubble, but the players won't be looking for excuses.

It is important for Milwaukee to respond to the dropped Game 1, especially as a First Round upset exit would surely mean Giannis Antetokounmpo would be looking to move on when his own contract runs out. The only way the Bucks can keep the 'Greek Freak' happy will be to show that they can offer him a route to NBA Championships and so there is a pressure on Milwaukee to deal with.

A short-handed Magic team will be looking for Nikola Vucevic to pick up from where he left off in Game 1 as they are likely missing key players again in Game 2. Nikola Vucevic scored 35 points and had 14 boards in Game 1 and that puts him alongside some of the best names in franchise history.

You have to believe the Bucks are going to be better equipped to deal with Vucevic in this one and I do expect a big reaction from the Number 1 Seed.

The top three Seeds in the First Round of the NBA PlayOffs have a strong historical trend of bouncing back from upset losses to cover the spread in their next game. It is perhaps not a surprise that those teams do bounce back considering they are facing weaker opposition and I do think the Milwaukee Bucks can do the same here.

I find it very hard to believe the Magic have as much success from the field as they did in Game 1 and I also can't help but think the Milwaukee Bucks are much better Offensively. This season Milwaukee are 4-0 against the spread when losing as a double digit favourite and the previous nine double digit favourites to lose in the NBA PlayOffs have gone 6-3 against the spread in their next game.

There are other trends that favour the Milwaukee Bucks to bounce back in style even though they have to cover a big number in this one too. I expect the Bucks will make the adjustments to challenge the Orlando three point shooters better than they did in Game 1 and this time they can pull away for a big win.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 2 Pick: Both Number 1 Seeds from the Eastern and Western Conference were beaten in Game 1 of the First Round Series and both have a chance to respond on Thursday. For the most part the feeling is that the Milwaukee Bucks are going to be too strong for the Orlando Magic even if it has to go seven games to determine a winner, but this Series has a much different feel about it.

Only last season the Portland Trail Blazers were able to battle their way through to the Western Conference Finals and they looked the most dangerous potential Number 8 Seed in the 2019/20 season. Injuries had played their part in the early season form, but the Trail Blazers are healthy and they have momentum.

The Los Angeles Lakers have to respond and any team with Anthony Davis and LeBron James is always going to have a chance. James produced a huge Game 1 with 23 points, 17 rebounds and 16 assists put together, but he did not get the kind of support he would have wanted from Davis.

The bigger issue might have been the really poor shooting from three point range as many of the Lakers role players struggled with their shot. The Lakers hit 16% of their three pointers attempted, but the concerns will be lessened when thinking of how open some of those shots were and the feeling that even on sheer luck they will hit a lot more.

It will be a disappointment the Lakers were only able to score 93 points against what has been a porous Portland Defensive unit, especially just a couple of days after the Trail Blazers had to win a Play In Series against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Some of the problems for the Los Angeles Lakers might have been the lack of intensity in the NBA bubble for a team who had comfortably locked up the Number 1 Seed in the West. They are 1-5 in their last six games in the NBA bubble, while the Trail Blazers have won five in a row during a time when they have long been in PlayOff mode.

Portland won the game but they will be the first to admit they have to be stronger than the 39% hit from the field. The Lakers have a very strong Defensive unit when at their best and that can spark them in this game as they look to level the Series before moving on.

In usual circumstances I would expect the Trail Blazers to perhaps struggle with their intensity having already stolen home court, but that shouldn't be the case in the bubble. They have to know they have the Lakers just scrambling a little bit and look to put the foot down, but historically it is difficult for the lower Seeds to back up an upset win in the PlayOffs.

I liked the Trail Blazers in Game 1, but I am expecting a big response from the Lakers and usually the top three Seeds in the First Round are very dangerous against the spread when coming off a wide loss. That is the case for the Lakers and I think we will see a better all around shooting display from the top Seed and that will see them win this game and also cover this time.


Friday 21st August
Toronto Raptors @ Brooklyn Nets Game 3 Pick: I have gone 0-2 in my predictions for this First Round Series, but the Brooklyn Nets are in a much more awkward position being two games down and with a maximum of five remaining. That means the Nets need to win four of those against the defending NBA Champions Toronto Raptors and an already short-handed team have lost another key piece since Game 2.

Joe Harris had 14 points and 15 rebounds in Game 2, but it was announced that he was leaving the NBA bubble following that performance. He was one of a number of Brooklyn players who should be proud of the effort and grit they showed in Game 2, but ultimately the Raptors have proven they can put a run together to finish ahead of Brooklyn.

The Raptors took the best shot the Nets could send out in Game 2 and still rallied for the win, although it was a much tougher game than the first one which was dominated by Toronto. One of the main reasons the game was much closer was the struggles the Raptors had from three point range having hit 26% in Game 2 compared with the 50% mark in Game 1, numbers that saw the amount of three pointers hit drop from 22 to 9.

It was part of the lacklustre display on the Offensive side of the ball for long periods of Game 2, but you do have to believe the Raptors will be much stronger in this one. The Raptors are a far better three point shooting tam than they displayed in Game 2 and I do think even a slight improvement in that shot will see them pull away for a dominant win.

The Brooklyn Nets have been a little more steady in their play in the first two games and the evidence is that they are too short-handed to really believe the upset is possible. Putting so much into Game 2 and only having a day to rest makes it tough on a stretched roster missing yet another key player and Caris LeVert continues to be bottled up by Toronto with the idea that the top Nets performer in the bubble will be forced to dish out to someone else to beat them.

LeVert is only 10-36 in the first two games in this Series and it is difficult to believe that is going to change. Toronto will force Brooklyn to find other shooters and I do think the Raptors are going to be better all around in Game 3 having narrowly won Game 2.

Brooklyn have shown they are not a team that is likely going to lie down, but the problem for them is matching the quality that Toronto are bringing to the court and much of the spread depends on the latter's shooting. I expect it to be closer to Game 1 than Game 2 from Toronto and that should see a plucky underdog fall short again.

The Nets have a strong record as a double digit underdog, but they put in plenty into Game 2 without reward and it may have one or two players drop their heads. With the NBA bubble likely wearing the patience thin too, I think the Nets may begin to think of heading home and that could allow the Raptors to dominate the next two games as they look to get the broomsticks out.


Denver Nuggets @ Utah Jazz Game 3 Pick: If it wasn't for some late mistakes in Game 1, the Utah Jazz might already be halfway home to the Conference Semi Finals against the higher Seeded Denver Nuggets. The Overtime loss in Game 1 might have dented the confidence of some teams, but the Jazz responded by dominating Game 2 and winning easily.

They didn't need the same kind of huge effort that Donovan Mitchell put up in Game 1, but Mitchell had another strong outing in Game 2. This time he found all of the right plays and was aided by a strong shooting display from his Jazz team-mates against a Denver team that are showing little sign of improving their Defensive performances in the NBA bubble.

Things will only be tougher for the Nuggets in Game 3 as Mike Conley is back for the Utah Jazz and expected to suit up. It means Donovan Mitchell has another player next to him that can handle the ball and make the right plays and Utah will be very happy with the fact they have hit at least 16 three pointers in both games played in the Series.

The clip at which they hit was much higher in Game 2 than Game 1, but Utah will be confident they can use the momentum going into this important outing. In recent games the Nuggets have simply not been able to find the right systems to slow down opponents from the three point arc and I do think the encouraging signs are there for the Jazz.

It was the improvement from the role players knocking down the open shots that they were missing in Game 1, while Defensively Utah looked much better as they contained Jamal Murray. Michael Porter Jr had another strong game in the NBA bubble, but the Nuggets know they will need a little more consistency Offensively if they continue to display huge vulnerabilities Defensively.

They might have been blown out in Game 2, but the Denver Nuggets will be encouraged by the 48% shooting mark from three point range. One problem is that the Nuggets are reliant on some of the role players to step up and their inconsistencies do make it a little more difficult to get a read on this team.

Will Barton and Gary Harris are still expecting to be missing so the Nuggets will need someone other than Porter Jr, Murray or Nikola Jokic to provide a scoring boost.

The layers clearly are not very confident in what they have seen in the first two games in this Series from the Nuggets as the spread as shrunk from 4.5 points in Game 1 to 1.5 points in Game 3. Denver are still considered the favourites, but it does feel like the momentum is with the Utah Jazz.

Personally I am finding it hard to really find a comfortable place with the spread where it is, but the layers have yet to make a serious move in the total points line. Both games in the Series have moved over the mark set and the line has only narrowly ticked up.

Neither Defensive unit has really shown a consistent ability to shut down the other and both teams take a lot of three pointers and have been successful with those shots. I expect that to continue through at least another game as both look to hurt the other with the ball movement and getting it to the open shooters standing around the arc.

The over has been the prevailing trend in recent Denver and Utah games and all three games between these teams in the NBA bubble have ended with the total mark set being surpassed. I think that is going to be the case in a pivotal Game 3 with neither team looking like they are going to slow down their three point shot against Defensive units that have struggled to defend the arc.


Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 3 Pick: I anticipated a reaction from the Philadelphia 76ers in Game 2 of this First Round Series after dropping Game 1, especially as the Boston Celtics lost an important player for the Series. There was a reaction, the 76ers led big early and were ahead at the end of the First Quarter, but that was as good as it got for Philadelphia who find themselves in a deep 2-0 hole.

In usual circumstances you could point out that all Boston have done is hold onto home court advantage and the 76ers have been much better at home than on the road this season. However these are far from usual circumstances and all of the pressure is on Brett Brown and the 76ers who have to find a way to find more Offense if they are going to extend this Series.

So far the 76ers have been held to 101 points in both games in the Series and aside from Joel Embiid they have not had a consistent Offensive threat in either game played. Joel Embiid has scored 60 points in the first two games and the next biggest contributor is Josh Richardson with 36 points combined.

That is not going to be good enough even against a Boston team missing Gordon Hayward as both Jayson Tatum and Jalen Brown are performing at the level that all Celtics fans would have been hoping to see. Tatum and Brown had 61 points combined in Game 1 and contributed 53 points combined in Game 2, and those performances means things open up for a quality performer in Kemba Walker too.

It is all clover for Boston so far in the Series with those three players being backed up by a deeper bench than the Philadelphia 76ers. Game 1 was closer because the 76ers had a slight edge off the bench, but it was the Celtics reserves who were much stronger in Game 2 which led to a blow out win.

Ben Simmons' absence has really been felt by the 76ers as they are struggling with the ball movement and in transition. That hasn't been an issue for the Celtics who have dominated this Series from the three point arc which has allowed them to build big leads, while Boston are clearly accepting that Embiid will get his points but stopping his team-mates from picking up any momentum.

This feels like a Series where the Boston Celtics are now much more likely to maintain their current path compared with the Philadelphia 76ers. In recent games the 76ers Defensive unit have struggled to make stops and there may be a feeling that the players have given up on the Coaching staff where big changes will be made if the 76ers are beaten in the First Round.

I would expect Boston to continue finding a consistent path to the bucket with their three point shooting opening up the paint, while it has been a struggle for the 76ers. In recent games in the bubble, the Celtics have really doubled down on the Defensive intensity and they have already shown that in this Series by holding the 76ers to 46% and 42% from the field in the first two games respectively.

Joel Embiid is showing signs of tiring with games being played every other day and I think the younger Boston players can put the 76ers on the brink of exiting the PlayOffs.

The 76ers have dropped to 5-11 against the spread in their last sixteen games as the underdog and they are 3-7 against the spread in the ten games played in the NBA bubble. They are also 2-6 against the spread in their last eight games played with a single day of rest between games and I think it is going to take a real slump in the three point shooting from the Celtics to make this a close Series after the way Game 2 developed.

You never know if another Philadelphia player outside of Joel Embiid suddenly gets hot from the field, but the players will have had their confidence knocked from the last performance and that may mean another Boston win and cover.


Los Angeles Clippers @ Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Pick: In all honesty I am looking forward to Game 3 of this First Round Series to see if the Dallas Mavericks can continue playing at a level I did not really expect.

They could easily have taken both games in the Series, but the Los Angeles Clippers remain the favourites even at 1-1.

There has to be an improvement in the overall play from the Clippers and I do think their PlayOff experience will prove to be invaluable the longer the Series goes on. However, I can't ignore the fact they have not looked the better team in either game and even a Dallas team with Luka Doncic dealing with foul trouble were able to rally together and square up the Series.

The total points line appealed considering the Clippers are going to either miss Patrick Beverley or have him in limited minutes. They have struggled to stop the Mavericks, but Dallas have a Defensive unit that doesn't make a lot of stops either.

However, I do think Doc Rivers will be preaching better control of Game 3 as the favourites look to get back on track and this is one PlayOff Game that deserves a watching brief.


Saturday 22nd August
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Game 3 Pick: It was much more like it from the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference as the Milwaukee Bucks dominated the Orlando Magic from wire to wire in Game 2 having dropped the first game in the Series. The NBA bubble has not been kind to the Bucks, but the levels shown in the last game suggest they may be getting back to form just in time to ensure a strong NBA PlayOffs run.

There is still work for the Bucks to do and there is room for improvement despite the 15 point win in Game 2- for starters the Bucks will not be happy that they were actually out-scored in the second half of the win, while they are still looking for Khris Middleton to announce himself on the Series.

Khris Middleton is the clear number two option on the Milwaukee roster, but he is just 5-20 in the Series so far and was held to a measly 2 points in Game 2. The fact the Bucks were able to win despite those poor numbers is mainly down to the performances of role players Brook Lopez, Eric Bledsoe and Pat Connaughton, while the bigger impact from the Defensive unit was a massive boost for Milwaukee too.

In Game 1 the short-handed Orlando Magic were able to hit 49% from the field and 39% from the three point arc, but those numbers dropped to 35% and 21% respectively in Game 2. Now I won't suggest for one second that the Magic won't be better in this game, but the Milwaukee Bucks have been a strong Defensive team throughout the 2019/20 season and it is harder to believe that Orlando can get back to the numbers shown in Game 1.

Nikola Vucevic doesn't look like he is slowing down having produced 67 points and 24 rebounds in the two games in the Series, but Milwaukee may accept his totals as long as they prevent someone else stepping up to support him. Three other Magic players scored at least 15 points in Game 1, but no one other than Vucevic managed more than 12 points in Game 2.

I think the adjustments that have to be made by Orlando are more difficult because they are short-handed and missing the likes of Aaron Gordon and Michael Carter-Williams for another game is a blow. In the mean time, Orlando need more from Evan Fournier who has struggled in the Series, but I am leaning towards Milwaukee putting another strong performance in the books.

There is simply just better depth and stronger Defense being played by Milwaukee and I think the win in Game 2 will have given them real momentum.

The trends may be favouring Orlando with a big spread behind them, but I think the Bucks will be looking to really take a grip on this Series and I believe they will pull away for another big win. Some complacency down the stretch in Game 2 made that a closer final scoreline than it should have been, but I do think Milwaukee will bare their teeth again and do enough to cover.


Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Two of the Eastern Conference First Round Series have moved to 3-0 on the side of the favourite to progress and the Miami Heat are seen as strong favourites to make it a third team in this Conference to move to the brink of the Semi Finals. They have used strong Defensive performances and made the necessary Offensive adjustments to win both 'road' games against the Indiana Pacers in the NBA bubble and that has seen the layers move the spread another point compared to the first two games.

The Heat have shown they have more depth than the Indiana Pacers with their bench providing a timely boost to help them edge past their opponent in each of the first two games in the Series. The Pacers have also struggled for consistency Offensively which has seen them score 101 points in Game 1 and 100 points in Game 2 as both times they were beaten by at least 9 point margins.

Miami have focused in on TJ Warren and refused to let the stand out player in the NBA bubble for the Pacers be the one to beat them. They have made it difficult for Warren to put his points on the board with strong Defensive schemes and sapping energy by making him work hard on the other side of the court.

TJ Warren might have been struggling, but the Pacers do have the likes of Victor Oladipo and Malcolm Brogdan who need to impress more than they have so far in the Series. These two players did combine for 39 points in Game 2, but Oladipo and Brogdan need to work on their efficiency from the field as they only hit 9 of 28 tries between them on Thursday.

Indiana will need to be a little better Defensively too having allowed the Miami Heat to hit 18 three pointers in their win in Game 2. They hit 51% of the three pointers tried in the win, but Indiana have to believe that it is not likely that Miami can have the same success again and forcing them to shoot the long range shots may be a chance to make this a closer and more competitive game than the first two have been.

In general the Pacers have been good at restricting what teams have been able to do against them from the three point arc. That is going to be important for them, and Indiana have to be encouraged that Miami had to have so much success from that distance to barely get over the line with another win in the Series.

I do think the Pacers are going to leave it all on the line in this one and I believe they are going to be a little closer to Miami than the first two games. The feeling is that this will be another low-scoring game and that does make the points being given to the Pacers look more appealing even though Miami have beaten them three times in four meetings in the NBA bubble.

The Heat are 6-20-1 against the spread in their last twenty-seven games when coming off a straight up win. They did cover in the spot in Game 2 as I felt they would, but this time a desperate Pacers team might be able to make a few more stops from three point range to allow themselves to end up within this mark.


Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 3 Pick: I got things wrong in Game 1 of this First Round Series when backing the Oklahoma City Thunder to beat the Houston Rockets, but the adjustments made by the layers in terms of the spread were also made by me. After seeing the manner of the performance of both teams in Game 1, I backed the Houston Rockets to win and cover in Game 2 and they responded with another blow out of the Thunder.

Now the Houston Rockets are slightly bigger favourites to move into a 3-0 lead in the Series and it is difficult to imagine what kind of adjustments the Oklahoma City Thunder can make from here. They have faced a Rockets team without Russell Westbrook in both games and even the return of their top Defensive player in Game 2 was not enough to slow down the Houston Offensive performance.

The Rockets did struggle with their percentages from the field in Game 2 compared with Game 1, but they do go for a high rate of three pointers and that means they have scored at least 111 points in both games. It does give Houston the chance to give Westbrook as much rest as he needs to regain his health and it is also putting a lot of pressure on Oklahoma City.

So far the Thunder have yet to score more than 108 points in either game played in the Series and while they have a better percentage of shots made, the huge difference in the amount of three pointers being hit are taking the game away from Oklahoma City. Now they will have to try and get someone going if they are going to make this a Series, but Houston are playing strong Defense and the Thunder are struggling.

Steven Adams is likely going to get more of the ball inside to try and use his size against the undersized Houston starters, but Oklahoma City are quickly put into an uncomfortable position if Houston are hitting their three pointers. It means the Thunder have to move away from what they like to do best and I do think it is a big ask for Oklahoma City to try and keep up with the Rockets.

Defensively Houston have looked very good and they are making it clear that they are going to try and keep the intensity up on that side of the court. That could be the key to the outcome of this Game 3 as Houston look to move to the brink of the Conference Semi Finals.

Houston are 8-2 against the spread in the last ten games following a straight up win by double digits and I think they can cover for a third time in this one. I don't think Oklahoma City are going to lie down for Houston, but the Thunder have looked short of the levels required in this Series and I like the Rockets here.


Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 3 Pick: Not everyone expected a big reaction from the Los Angeles Lakers after they dropped the first game of this First Round Series, but the Lakers have not lost any belief in their own ability. There was even some suggestion that the Lakers would be swept out of the PlayOffs by the Portland Trail Blazers, but the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference came out with real intensity in Game 2 and dominated wire to wire.

Anthony Davis was the big player in Game 2, but the Lakers also played much better from the three point arc where they had missed too many good looks in Game 1. After only making 16% of the 32 three pointers tried in Game 1, the Lakers managed a 37% clip in Game 2 as they hit 14 times from long distance.

You have to think a similar style is going to be employed in Game 3 as the Los Angeles Lakers try and move ahead of Portland in the Series. The role players are a little hard to trust, but they showed some rhythm in Game 2 and I think that is important for the Lakers as they look to crash into the paint and make the right plays to the open players on the perimeter.

There does still feel like another level in the Offensive play of the Lakers who only got 10 points from LeBron James in Game 2. It was a quiet game from James who almost had as many turnovers as he did assists following a huge Game 1 effort, but The King will be happy enough that his team were able to step up without him needing to dig deep.

I expect LeBron to be better in Game 3 and this Portland team have struggled Defensively to believe they are going to be able to slow down the Lakers through their own play.

Instead Portland have to hope their Offensive players rediscover what has been a lost groove through the first two games of the Series. The fact the Trail Blazers have come away with a 1-1 record from those games is surprising as they have been held to 39% shooting from the field in Game 1 and only managed to improve that to 40% in Game 2.

It doesn't help that Damian Lillard could be restricted after dislocating his finger in Game 2. Damian Lillard has a 15-35 record so far in this Series, and he slipped from 34 points in Game 1 to 18 points in Game 2.

The only real hope for the Trail Blazers is that both Lillard and CJ McCollum are able to keep firing with success, but both are dealing with injuries. Their front court struggled badly in Game 2 and I do think the Los Angeles Lakers are very strong Defensively and looking to slow down the Trail Blazers as they have managed to do in the first two in the Series.

The feeling is that the Lakers are more likely to keep the Defensive levels to the standard they have shown in the First Round. The Lakers look to be finding their feet Offensively and that should help them get the better of the Trail Blazers in this one too.

Portland do tend to fight back strongly off the back of a blow out defeat, but it may be difficult to do that with their best players not at 100%. This is a good Offensive team that can get very hot from the field, but the Lakers have controlled them well enough to believe they can win Game 3 and cover the mark as they did in Game 2.


Sunday 23rd August
It has been a relatively busy day or so which means I am not able to write out the selections from the NBA PlayOff Games taking place on Sunday.

Instead you can see those selections below and I will be back to usual on Monday.


Monday 24th August
Milwaukee Bucks @ Orlando Magic Game 4 Pick: For the second season in a row the Orlando Magic were able to spring an upset in Game 1 of a First Round Series against a higher Seeded opponent, but there will be a sense of deja vu considering the direction this one is taking. Last season the Magic upset the Toronto Raptors in Game 1 of the First Round and were then beaten in four straight games with three of those coming in blow out fashion.

This season they stunned the Number 1 Seeded Milwaukee Bucks in Game 1, but the last two games have been dominated by the Bucks even if the final scoreline has not really highlighted that. The Bucks won Game 2 by 15 points with the largest lead being 23 points, while in Game 3 they won by 14 points although at one point the Bucks were leading by 34 points.

The big leads have forced Orlando to really chase the three point shot to try and stay with the Bucks and in Game 3 they were very productive from that mark. It was their best shooting display from the distance in the Series so far, but it is very difficult to believe the short-handed Orlando Magic can keep that level up through another game.

With that in mind it does make it very difficult to believe Orlando can challenge the Milwaukee Bucks who have grown into the Series and looking like the Number 1 Seed they are. The bigger positive for the Bucks is that Khris Middleton looks to be rounding into form too and Milwaukee are getting plenty out of their role players to really dictate the tempo of the last two games.

The first starts have really helped Milwaukee who have led by 21 points at half time in Game 2 and 17 points in Game 3 and I do think the direction of this First Round Series has become clear. Through the history of the NBA PlayOffs, Number 1 Seeds who have covered the spread and won outright in back to back games have a very strong habit of covering the spread in their next game against a Number 8 Seed.

I make no mistake in believing this is going to be an easy spread to cover because the Bucks have just dropped their intensity down the stretch in the last two games which have allowed Orlando to make things a little closer than they should have been. Even in the last game Orlando were only a bucket away from covering the mark, which has to be respected, but Milwaukee have held huge leads in the Fourth Quarter in each of the last two games and I simply don't think Orlando will hit at 48% from the three point arc as they did in Game 3.

Both Aaron Gordon and Michael Carter-Williams are still looking likely to miss this game having not played in the Series and that leaves Orlando scrambling for players to step up and support Nikola Vucevic. The latter will likely have another strong game, but Milwaukee are not bothered about that as long as they are able to shut down the other options as effectively as they have been.

Milwaukee have dominated Orlando in the 2019/20 season and four of the seven games have been won by at least 14 point margins. There might be one or two nervy moments down the stretch if the Bucks pull out their starters with a lead, but I think they are in a strong place mentally and they should have enough to cover the spread for the third time in a row.


Houston Rockets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Game 4 Pick: Some late mental lapses and a poor second half and Overtime of shooting prevented the Houston Rockets from becoming the latest team to move into a 3-0 lead in a First Round Series in the NBA PlayOffs inside the bubble in Florida. There will have been some disappointment that the Rockets blew what looked like a perfect chance to really take a full grip of this Series and now the worry is that they have given the Oklahoma City Thunder a huge boost in confidence ahead of Game 4.

There are some issues that need addressing for the Houston Rockets who won in blow out fashion in each of the first two games. However the shooting numbers have gotten a little worse in each of the first three games and eventually that allowed a much more consistent Oklahoma City team to do enough to steal away Game 3.

One of the big problems for the Rockets is the huge reliance on the three pointer, but their shooting percentages have dropped from 38% in Game 1 to 34% in Game 2 and eventually 30% in Game 3. The overall shooting percentage has dropped in each game too which is something Houston will want to address even though they are missing the presence of Russell Westbrook to ease some of the pressure on James Harden.

The Beard has had a couple of tough outings as the Thunder have been able to call on Luguentz Dort after their best Defender missed Game 1. James Harden is still getting his points, but in Game 3 it was clear that he was not going to get the same level of support that he did in the first two games which made his own tough outing more noticeable.

Luguentz Dort has done a very good job on Harden, but Houston know they can force him to look elsewhere or be a step slow if the likes of PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and the bench players step up. Only Jeff Green can be happy with his Game 3 performance, but Houston missed enough open looks to believe the shots will get back to falling through the bucket sooner rather than later.

The Thunder will once again be looking to the back court to spark them Offensively, but the numbers have been steady rather than spectacular through the first three games. Effectively this Series feels like it depends on how effective Houston are shooting the ball because it is difficult for the Thunder to compete when the Rockets are nearer their best form.

Another big blow for the Thunder is potentially losing Steven Adams who is questionable having been forced to come out of Game 3. Without his presence in the paint, the Rockets might feel they can attack the basket a little more while Houston may have more success around the boards too to give themselves another edge.

Houston will have to make some adjustments after losing Game 3, but they will also know as poor as they were in the second half that they were still very close to winning the game.

The Rockets might not have bounced back from losses as well as they would have liked in recent games, but the Oklahoma City Thunder are 0-4 against the spread off a straight up win.

In the past, teams who are upset in the NBA PlayOffs have bounced back when playing at home in their next game. While there is no home court advantage in the NBA PlayOffs this season, I do think teams off an upset will be more capable of bouncing back in the bubble and I expect that from the Houston Rockets who have shown this Series is in their control.

I can't expect Houston to be as poor shooting from three point range again as they were in Game 3 and I think they do find a way to cover what is the biggest spread in the Series so far.


Indiana Pacers @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: Every win for the Miami Heat in this Series has come by at least 9 point margins, and they are now on the brink of earning their spot in the Eastern Conference Semi Finals. The Indiana Pacers have not given up at any point, but the Heat look to be much stronger at both ends of the court and it is difficult to see how things will change now.

The Pacers gave Game 3 everything they had, but ultimately they didn't have the stamina to produce their best through the entire 48 minutes. It meant some late baskets for the Miami Heat were enough to edge to another 9 point victory and a third cover in the Series.

Now the Heat have been given the largest spread to cover- while the first three games have been competitive at times during the contests, you have to wonder if the Pacers have much left in the tank at 3-0 down knowing they have spent considerable time away from their families in the NBA bubble already.

Miami have found a really nice Offensive balance and they are putting that next to their intense Defense to really control things. They had an 18 point lead at half time in Game 3 and you do have to think the Indiana Pacers won't have the same kind of effort in the second half in this one of they find themselves in the same kind of hole.

Nate McMillan is trying to put a thought into the referee's minds for this Game 4 having bemoaned the huge discrepancy between the foul throws earned by the two teams in Game 3. That might have come too late to really change this Series, but it might be something that is addressed in this one which may make things a little closer.

However, you also have to wonder if the Miami Heat are going to be a little hotter from the three point range than they were in Game 3 having produced a big effort in Game 2. The Heat will feel they don't have to make the big adjustments the Indiana Pacers will have to and they have been comfortable winners over this opponent four times in five meetings in the NBA bubble.

The bench play should aid Miami even when things get a little tighter, while the Heat are 5-1 against the spread in the last six between these teams.

We have already seen two sweeps completed in the First Round Series being played in the NBA bubble and Miami do look capable of completing another on Monday. Historically it has been difficult for teams at 0-3 to compete in Game 4 and I think that may be the case for Indiana who have given it their all to try and take at least one of the first three games and fallen short each time.

Road dogs being given at least 4 points have struggled massively, but there is no home court advantage here. Even then, the two underdogs went 1-1 against the spread on Sunday as they looked to avoid a sweep and one of those needed a huge slice of fortune to cover late on.

I feel that might be a problem for Indiana on Monday if things start going against them and Miami should be able to cover this mark too.


Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers Game 4 Pick: They might have been down at Half Time in Game 3, but the Los Angeles Lakers saw their two star players pick up the slack and help turn things around against the Portland Trail Blazers. Some key baskets in the Fourth Quarter gave the Lakers the momentum to move 2-1 ahead of the Trail Blazers in this First Round Series having dropped the first game.

To win a NBA Championship I do think the Lakers are going to need to significantly improve and that means getting more from players not called LeBron James or Anthony Davis. Those two came together last summer to help the Lakers turn around what has been an uncertain time in the franchise's history and the team are now a couple of wins away from a first PlayOff success since 2012.

Game 3 was the first time both James and Davis put in massive efforts at the same time in this Series and it led to 67 points, 16 assists and 23 boards combined. Those numbers covered up some of the poorer displays from the role players and LeBron James will be the first to note that this team will only win a Championship if those players can help support the two superstars on the roster.

Those players were stronger in Game 2 which is the easiest game the Lakers have had in the Series and I do think much depends on how they play. At this point you would describe the role players as unreliable, but with James and Davis picking up plenty of attention it does mean the open shots will continue to be found.

Defensively the Lakers have remained very strong and that has helped contain the Portland Trail Blazers in all three games despite losing one of them. The Trail Blazers have yet to hit better than 41% from the field in any of the three games, while the 13 three pointers hit in Game 1 is their best effort so far and they have not hit better than 38% from the arc.

Those numbers put pressure on a team that has struggled Defensively in the NBA bubble, while Damian Lillard admitted his dislocated finger was part of the reason for his 8-20 shooting night in Game 3. There has been a little more balance from the Portland players when it comes to sharing the point scoring load, but none of them have really been lights out and that makes things very difficult for them.

It has been a tough two weeks in the NBA bubble as Portland have been fighting for their PlayOff lives ever since entering the bubble. That has perhaps sapped some energy, both mentally and physically, and the Los Angeles Lakers have suggested they saw some tiredness in their opponents in Game 3 on Saturday.

Portland are still talking up their chances, but they have to find some rhythm shooting the ball. It is unlikely they can win a low-scoring game with their own Defensive issues, while the momentum is now very much against them.

As I have mentioned in the Milwaukee Bucks-Orlando Magic Series, Number 1 Seeds off back to back wins and covers against Number 8 Seeds have historically been very good at covering the next mark set up for them. In Game 4 of this Series there has been no change of the spread since Game 3 and I do think the Los Angeles Lakers are going to be a little too good for the Trail Blazers again.

The Lakers have some poor recent trends that go against them, but Portland are 5-11-1 against the spread in their last seventeen games as a PlayOff underdog. They are also 2-7 against the spread in their last nine against the Los Angeles Lakers and I do think LeBron James and Anthony Davis continue their current form and will likely get a bit more support from the role players in this one after the poorer Game 3 effort from those players.


Tuesday 25th August
Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: For the first time in the history of the NBA PlayOffs, two players from opposite teams both managed to score 50 points in a single game in the post-season. Jamal Murray hit that number for the Denver Nuggets, while Donovan Mitchell continued his own strong Series for the Utah Jazz.

It is only Mitchell who will be satisfied with the position going into Game 5 of this First Round Series as he has helped the Utah Jazz win three in a row against the higher Seeded Denver Nuggets. The reality is that the Jazz did enough to win Game 1 before going down in Overtime and the layers have responded to make Utah a pretty strong favourite in Game 5 having begun the Series as an underdog in the first three games.

Back to back blow out wins meant Utah went into Game 4 as a strong favourite, but they were not able to cover in the victory. A late, meaningless three pointer from Denver prevented that happening in the latest high-scoring game between these teams, but Utah won't be worrying about that and will be more focused on making sure they earn their spot in the Conference Semi Finals as soon as possible.

They can close the show on Tuesday and Utah have to be feeling very confident with the way they have been playing. They might have lost all three regular season games to Denver, but the Nuggets have been miserable Defensively throughout this Series which has allowed Utah to score at least 124 points in all four games and only one of those needed Overtime to secure that mark.

In Game 2 and Game 3 the Nuggets were not able to keep up as they were blown out, but they put in a huge effort into Game 4 and still came up short. With Mike Conley back in the rotation, the Utah Jazz have been able to do whatever they like from an Offensive point of view and Denver have not had an answer to Donovan Mitchell who has grabbed the headlines in the Series.

Donovan Mitchell knew he needed help and the role players have very much stepped up for Utah. They struggled from three point range in Game 1 as they were beaten in Overtime, but Utah have hit at least 14 three pointers in each of their last three games and have been at least 45% success rate from the field at that distance.

Unsurprisingly it has opened up the paint and Utah are bettering one in two from the field in the last three games in the Series. The Jazz are also getting plenty of production from off the bench and even the potential return of Gary Harris for the Denver Nuggets might have come too late to save them from a Defensive point of view.

Gary Harris is one of the better Defenders on the roster, but his minutes might be restricted off a long lay off and picking up the tempo of a Series going into a fifth game is difficult to say the least. That could mean it is up to Denver to find the Offense needed to extend this Series to at least a Game 6, but they have been short-handed and it is very hard to keep the energy levels going when playing every other day in the NBA bubble.

The Nuggets have simply not had the same consistency as the Utah Jazz when it comes to shooting the ball and that has seen the problems escalate in this Series.

At this stage it is hard to see things changing and teams off three straight losses have historically struggled to keep their intensity going. Even in the NBA bubble those teams are 1-2 against the spread and even though Utah have not had the best record as a favourite in recent games, I do think they will have too much firepower for the Nuggets again.


Dallas Mavericks @ Los Angeles Clippers Game 5 Pick: Three of the four Eastern Conference First Round Series were completed in sweeps, while the other looks certain to finish in five games. None of the Western Conference First Round Series have been concluded just yet and this is one of two Series that is guaranteed to go at least six games.

There were plenty of people tipping up the Los Angeles Clippers as the team to beat in the NBA bubble, but they are being pushed to the limits in this Series by the young and exciting Dallas Mavericks. Even in times when it looks like the Mavericks are finally going to be put in their place by an experienced and talented squad, Luka Doncic rises up to give his team-mates another boost.

It was Doncic's buzzer beating three pointer which gave the Mavericks the win over the Clippers in Game 4 and levelled the Series for a second time. Dallas looked to be on the verge of a blow out defeat with Doncic struggling with an ankle issue and Kristaps Porzingis forced to sit out as they trailed by 21 points, but Dallas put a huge run together to force their way back into the game before hanging on to win in Overtime.

Once again it feels like Porzingis will be missing, but the Clippers can't take anything for granted as they continue to see Paul George struggle with his shot. Kawhi Leonard is still producing big PlayOff performances the year after guiding the Toronto Raptors to a Championship, but he will be the first to admit that a First Round exit in 2020 would be devastating.

There is plenty of Offensive support for Leonard even with George struggling and that has seen the Clippers score at least 114 points in each game in the Series and snap 130 points in back to back games. However, Los Angeles were one of the better Defensive teams in the NBA and have yet to show that intensity in the Series which has allowed the Mavericks to recover from deep holes and find their open shooters in this one.

Having Patrick Beverley sidelined is a blow, but that is not something the Clippers can use as an excuse. Doc Rivers has been very upset with the intensity of the players and has described the Clippers as being 'emotionally weak' having blown big leads by being unable to slow down Dallas when things do go against them.

Those comments should be firing up the players who come into a huge Game 5 knowing the winning team will be on the brink of making the Conference Semi Finals. It has proven very difficult to slow down the Dallas Offense, but you would have to think the Clippers will eventually hit on the right rhythm especially with Doncic hurting and Porzingis likely absent again.

Paul George has long been criticised for his level of performance in the PlayOffs, but he has to be someone who will find his rhythm sooner rather than later. The looks have been very positive and you have to believe he will start hitting those, while Los Angeles bounced back from their Game 2 defeat to beat the Mavericks behind a strong performance in Game 3.

That is what I am expecting of the Clippers who I think will be better in the remainder of the PlayOffs for what they are going through now as long as they find a way to progress. You have to believe things are unlikely to change for Dallas Offensively, but at some point I expect the Los Angeles Clippers to show up Defensively and at least make some key stops late in the game to give their Offense the chance to expose the Mavericks weaknesses.

As well as Dallas are playing, they are 1-5 against the spread in their last six following a win. At the same time, the Clippers are 36-16 against the spread in their last fifty-two following a loss and they have bounced back to go 5-1 against the spread in their last six games when allowing at least 125 points.

Historically those teams who lose as favourites in the First Round of the PlayOff Series have bounced back very well in the next game and we have seen that with the Clippers once already in this Series. I am expecting a big response from the favourites in this one and I think they can get the better of this high-scoring game and move to one game from the Western Conference Semi Finals.


Wednesday 26th August
Orlando Magic @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: Every game in this First Round Series has seen the Milwaukee Bucks set as a double digit favourite and after three wins in a row there is no change from the layers. In fact in Game 5 the Bucks are being asked to cover 14 full points against the Orlando Magic which is always a very big number in the NBA.

The Bucks have covered the mark in the last three games as they have turned the Series around to hold a 3-1 lead. There should be every bit of motivation to get this Series completed knowing the Miami Heat are resting having swept through their own First Round Series and the Bucks would love to get a little bit of rest in the legs before the Conference Semi Finals begin, most likely this weekend if they win this Game 5.

After losing by 12 points in Game 1, the Milwaukee Bucks have responded by winning the next three games by 15, 14 and then 15 points respectively. Milwaukee had big leads in Games 2 and 3 before allowing the Magic to get a little closer, but in Game 4 they needed to dig deep and produce a huge Fourth Quarter to complete the cover.

Ultimately Milwaukee don't care too much about whether they beat these marks or not and that is what makes the number look a big one. However, the Bucks have looked quite clearly the better team capable of putting some strong runs together as they are forcing a short-handed Orlando team to rely on heavy three point shooting to remain competitive.

In the last two games Orlando have managed to hit consistently enough from the three point range to keep chugging along, but this has not been a strong part of their game over the course of the season. It makes it difficult to believe Orlando can keep doing what they have been, while Milwaukee are much more consistent and feel confident with the rhythm they have on the court.

The Bucks have been shooting with at least 47% success from the field in each of their last three wins over Orlando and they will have been particularly pleased to see Khris Middleton return to some form in Game 4. With a deeper bench capable of ticking things along, I do think Milwaukee can keep their strong wins coming in this Game 5 as they look to move through to the Eastern Conference Semi Finals again.

Number 1 Seeds playing off back to back wins and covers are very strong historically against the Number 8 Seed, while Orlando are also off three straight defeats when teams tend to just lose some of their competitiveness.

So far in the NBA bubble those teams have gone 2-2 against the spread after three losses in a row, but Orlando's best chance here is that the Milwaukee reserves come into the game in the Fourth Quarter and perhaps allow a big lead to slip. That has almost happened in Game 3, but even then the Milwaukee Bucks found the cover and I think they will do the same here.

Four of the last five games between the Magic and Bucks have ended with the latter winning by at least 14 points. This is a big spread and I would have been much happier if the mark remained at the same mark as Game 4, but I still think Milwaukee are motivated to head through to the next Round with another big performance behind them.

Orlando might be competitive as they have been in the entire Series, but the Bucks can cover.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets Game 5 Pick: The Houston Rockets have to be looking around their locker room and wondering how this First Round Series is tied at 2-2 having had multiple chances to win the last two games. They blew out the Oklahoma City Thunder in the first two games of this First Round and looked to be on the way to another win in Game 3, but late mistakes cost them and it was more of the same in Game 4 despite being in a strong position again.

At first it really felt like the Rockets were not going to be missing Russell Westbrook as much as most thought they might, but now fans will be checking the injury reports and wondering if he can make it back in time to face his former team. It is very unlikely Westbrook suits up for Game 5 so it is up to the current roster to rediscover some of the rhythm which has slowly been deteriorating in each game in the Series.

There was a slight improvement in the shooting numbers in Game 4 having seen those numbers slip in each of the first three games. That will encourage the Rockets, but they made some really poor errors down the stretch as it looked like they were going to hang on to a narrow lead and move into a 3-1 lead in the First Round.

Turnovers, poor Defensive adjustments and too many cold stretches from the field allowed the Oklahoma City Thunder to recover and level the Series with Chris Paul particularly vocal about things. Chris Paul has something to prove having been jettisoned to the Thunder in the Westbrook trade last year, but he will be very happy to see the support he is getting from his back court team-mates who teamed together to have another big outing in Game 4.

Throughout this Series the Thunder have been struggling with the three point shot in terms of a percentage made, but they have hit just enough to stay within range of the Rockets. You do still have to feel that much depends on Houston and if they do get hot from the distance then it will be very difficult for Oklahoma City to stay with them, but the Thunder have also found the soft spots in the Defensive unit which has allowed them to find their shooting.

Game 4 was the best shooting display from the Thunder in the First Round Series so far and all the adjustments have to be made by the Houston Rockets. The reality is that Oklahoma City are hanging around long enough to hurt the Thunder late and the Defensive effort on James Harden is slowing down the best player on the court.

Billy Donovan has also been humble enough to accept that the Thunder have had to make changes to deal with a Rockets line up they would not have seen in the regular season. The Rockets are a smaller team now and so Donovan has decided to go with a smaller line up in the clutch which has seen his team find spaces in the Houston Defense and make the big shots to just about get over the line.

Picking a winner in Game 5 is not easy and this is a Series I have not had a very good grip on even if I feel the Houston Rockets have had their chances in the last two games to cover when picking them to do so.

I am not going to try in this one with Oklahoma City having the momentum thanks to their late heroics in the last two games, but my lean is towards another high-scoring game.

Houston are the better team and they will not stop looking for the open three point shooter- if they get hot from the distance it will force the Thunder to get into a shoot-out, but Oklahoma City are also looking to find spacing in the last couple of games which has led to at least 32 three pointers thrown up.

Three of the four games in the Series have landed the Over, although one needed Overtime to hit the mark. Both teams could find an improvement from the three point range and I think that may lead to a high-scoring outing in this one.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 5 Pick: It was Mamba Day in the NBA on Monday and the Los Angeles Lakers came out to remember their former player with a big performance in Game 4 of this First Round Series. They might have finished with a 20 point win, but the Lakers dominated and could have won by double that mark if they had not pulled their starters to make sure they are rested for what is hopefully a long PlayOff season.

Game 4 was easily the best one for the Lakers in the Series as they have now fully recovered from dropping the first game to the Portland Trail Blazers and lead 3-1 with three games to go. There is no doubt the Lakers would love to get some rest while the Oklahoma City Thunder and Houston Rockets continue to fight it out for a place in the Western Conference Semi Finals and they can do that by taking Game 5 on Wednesday.

The Lakers were lights out from the three point range on Monday after struggling from that distance through much of the Series. They also got plenty of support around Anthony Davis and LeBron James who only had 48 of the 135 points scored by the Lakers in Game 4 thanks to some big efforts from the role players and the bench.

Frank Vogel will be looking for more of the same as he will be demanding his Lakers team complete the wipe out of the Portland Trail Blazers that have looked more and more tired as this First Round Series has developed.

To make matters worse, Damian Lillard has been ruled out for Game 5 having hurt his knee in Game 4. Damian Lillard is the best player on the court for the Trail Blazers and has the capabilities of getting very hot from the field, but he had already been slowed by a dislocated finger and his absence will be seriously felt if the other players cannot step up and cover the points lost.

Portland had their best shooting numbers of the Series so far in Game 4, but that was also down to the fact that the Lakers were able to give their starters extended rest during a blow out. Throughout the Series the Lakers strong Defensive rotations have made it very difficult for Portland to find any rhythm from the three point arc and that has led to the paint being clogged up too.

With a Defensive unit that have struggled to make stops it has led to the Trail Blazers just not having enough to stay with the Lakers.

This is the biggest number of the Series when it comes to the spread, but that is largely down to Lillard being absent for the underdog. Twice in three wins the Lakers would have covered this mark and I don't think LeBron James is going to allow his team-mates to take their foot off the pedal at this time with the team looking to build momentum to take into the Conference Semi Finals.

Like I have mentioned in the Milwaukee Bucks-Orlando Magic Series, Number 1 Seeds have largely dominated Number 8 Seeds historically in the NBA PlayOffs. Those teams have been particularly strong when they have blown out the Number 8 Seed and covered the previous spread by at least four points like the Lakers did in Game 4.

Three consecutive losses will have dampened some of the Portland enthusiasm as will be the fact they are missing their best player at the same time CJ McCollum is struggling with an injury too.

This is a very big spread, I won't make any mistake with that, but the Lakers might have too much on both sides of the court and can cover here.


Thursday 27th August
Things have to change in the United States following another police shooting of an African-American and the NBA made the the right decision to postpone the PlayOff games which had been scheduled for Wednesday evening.

I think the same will happen on Thursday and I absolutely support the players for using their platform to advocate for social change.

At the end of the day a sacrifice they are making is the only way people will get up and take notice of issues and perhaps offer some change going forward. While I accept that not all police officers will behave maliciously to someone based on the colour of their skin, I do think there are plenty who do act disproportionately.

In this case I really can't accept there was no other solution than shooting an unarmed person in the back seven times.

This is not something that will change overnight, but some reforms have to be made even if I do not agree with 'defunding the police'. Effectively I think they should be held much more accountable than they are now and educating those coming through to take those positions to 'protect and serve' has to be imperative.

There have already been too many occasions of things happening like we saw with Jacob Blake this past week and a better solution to prevent it continuing has to be put together. It will take time for fractures to heal, but they will with better education and accountability where people can't hide behind a badge when murdering others.

Right now all I can say is that I am fully behind the NBA players taking the actions they are to highlight an issue that has been going on for far too long now.


Saturday 29th August
As I wrote above, the NBA athletes have my full respect and support for the actions taken earlier this week which has delayed the NBA PlayOffs a couple of days.

They have a platform and have every right to use it to highlight social injustices that continue to take place across the United States.

While the Wednesday NBA PlayOff Picks were cancelled, those same Picks will be made for Saturday with the reasoning above.


Tuesday 1st September
I've just had a few days out from the NBA PlayOffs Picks, but the First Round has been decent enough with two more games to be played. I am unlikely to have a selection from Game 7 of the Houston Rockets-Oklahoma City Thunder Series because I have literally been on the wrong side throughout.

However the final game between the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets feels like one that will go in a direction we have largely seen throughout this First Round Series.

Utah Jazz @ Denver Nuggets Game 7 Pick: The First Round of the NBA PlayOffs on the Eastern Conference side were pretty boring in all honesty, but that has been far from the case in the Western Conference. The Los Angeles Lakers and Los Angeles Clippers needed five and six games respectively, but the two favourites to perhaps win it all are still waiting for their opponents who are in First Round Series which have gone the distance.

The Clippers will find out who they will be facing in the Western Conference Semi Finals when the Utah Jazz and Denver Nuggets complete what has been a topsy-turvy Series. Utah should have won Game 1 but were beaten in Overtime, and they responded with three straight wins that looked to put the Jazz in a position to conclude this Series last week.

However things have swung again with the Denver Nuggets winning the last two games to level things up and they can be grateful to Jamal Murray who has outplayed Donovan Mitchell in the last two games. Jamal Murray has scored at least 42 points in each of the last two games and both players are putting up historic numbers all over the place.

It is Murray who could create a record for most points scored in a single PlayOff Series if he can score at least 50 more points in Game 7, but ultimately all the Guard is doing is trying to help Denver win a Series from 3-1 down for the first time in franchise history. At the same time Donovan Mitchell is hoping to help Utah avoid blowing a 3-1 lead for the first time and this Game 7 has all the makings of a classic.

Gary Harris is back for the Nuggets, although his minutes will likely remain limited having played 20 minutes in Game 6. Those were important minutes with the Defensive nous of Harris helping the Nuggets who have found some strength on that side of the court.

In the last two games Denver have held Utah to 107 points each time which is remarkable considering they gave up at least 124 points in each of the first four games in the Series. Utah are still making a high percentage of their shots, but they will want to reduce the Turnovers and also hope some of the role players can step up their levels and ease the pressure on Donovan Mitchell who had 44 points in Game 6 which was still not enough for the Jazz to win.

Denver have picked up their own shooting levels with Nikola Jokic really supporting Jamal Murray in the last couple of games.

All in all it makes it hard to see Game 7 going in a different way to so many games in this Series and that is with both teams hitting their shots and looking to wear down the other with their ability from the three point range. Both teams are still performing very well when it comes to their shots from the field and I don't think either takes a backward step in this one either.

The over is now 6-1 in the last seven games between the Nuggets and the Jazz and the majority of those have surpassed the total set easily enough. I don't think either team will suddenly decide they are going to move away from the heavy three point shooting and that should mean a fun exciting end to this First Round Series and then little time to prepare for the Los Angeles Clippers in the Semi Final for the winning team.

MY PICKS: 17/08 Utah Jazz + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
17/08 Brooklyn Nets + 10 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
17/08 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
17/08 Los Angeles Clippers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
18/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
18/08 Miami Heat - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
18/08 Portland Trail Blazers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/08 Toronto Raptors - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
19/08 Denver Nuggets-Utah Jazz Over 218 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
19/08 Philadelphia 76ers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
19/08 Los Angeles Clippers - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/08 Miami Heat - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
20/08 Houston Rockets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 13 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
20/08 Los Angeles Lakers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/08 Toronto Raptors - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
21/08 Utah Jazz-Denver Nuggets Over 218.5 Points @ 1.90 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
21/08 Boston Celtics - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 12.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/08 Indiana Pacers + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
22/08 Houston Rockets - 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
22/08 Los Angeles Lakers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/08 Boston Celtics - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
23/08 Los Angeles Clippers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
23/08 Toronto Raptors - 13 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
23/08 Utah Jazz-Denver Nuggets Over 215 Points @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
24/08 Houston Rockets - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
24/08 Miami Heat - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/08 Los Angeles Lakers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
25/08 Utah Jazz - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
25/08 Los Angeles Clippers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 14 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
26/08 Houston Rockets-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 224 Points @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
26/08 Los Angeles Lakers - 14 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
29/08 Milwaukee Bucks - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
29/08 Houston Rockets-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 227 Points @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
29/08 Los Angeles Lakers - 13.5 Points @ 1.90 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
01/09 Denver Nuggets-Utah Jazz Over 217.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NBA First Round Update: 20-17-3, + 1.26 Units