Boxing Picks 2020- Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman (August 1st)

Who would have thought that the Deontay Wilder vs Tyson Fury Rematch was going to be the last really big Boxing event for months?

That fight might only have occurred five months ago, but with all the goings on in the world it does feel like it has been a lot, lot longer than that.

Things have yet to return to normal, but the UFC have shown you can put on fascinating cards even though those have to be behind closed doors- their business model is a lot different to Boxing which means those big fights are easier to arrange, but Dana White has shown you can put the right protocols in place to have combat sports return even in the current environment.

Eddie Hearn was always going to try and do something a bit special and organising four weeks of Fight Camps in his back garden is definitely a bit different. The first of those four weeks begins on August 1st and, unlike some other promoters, Hearn is making sure they are four good looking cards.

The final one looks the best with the likes of Dillian Whyte, Alexander Povetkin, Katie Taylor and Delfine Persoon all on that one, but the opening weekend is giving the fans some good looking fights albeit at a lower level than those World level fights arriving later in the month.

We also have a couple other cards taking place this week which means the Boxing begins on Friday and goes through to the early hours of Sunday morning in the United Kingdom.

While it is going to take a while for things to get back to the normality of seeing fans in the stands and watching the big names face each other, it is good to have Boxing back and there are plenty of big fights to look forward to.


The early suspension of sporting events came at a time when the 2020 Boxing season has not really gotten underway and so there have been very few picks made so far this year. Things should be different over the next month with the cards that are in place, but the situation could change quickly and all it takes is a couple of failed tests and these cards could all have a different feel.

I hope everyone stays safe and healthy that are involved in all of these events being put together for our entertainment.

Lyndon Arthur vs Dec Spelman

If it wasn't for the Covid crisis that took over the world, Lyndon Arthur would have been set to fight Anthony Yarde as he looks to prove himself the best in Britain at Light Heavyweight level.

Make no mistake, it was a huge step up for Arthur who is unbeaten in sixteen fights but who would then be going in with a former World Title challenger. Anthony Yarde was not far away from Knocking Out Sergey Kovalev, but for now Arthur has to focus on other targets before trying to renew hostilities with the 'Lion in the Camp'.

That fight may be put together before the end of the year and confidence has not been dampened in the meantime. Lyndon Arthur has made it clear that he expects to be considered better than both Yarde and Joshua Buatsi by the end of 2020, two high profile Light Heavyweights that are close to World level already.

It will be sounding like a very hollow statement if Arthur is not able to beat Dec Spelman in this main event fight from the BT Studios in Stratford on Friday evening.

Dec Spelman has a 16-3 record and two of those losses have come against English Light Heavyweight Champion Shakan Pitters. The other defeat came to Scott Westgarth who tragically later passed away and it is that event which inspires Spelman to try and be the very best he can be.

I have no doubt that Spelman will come forward and try and close the gap to the bigger man, but I also have to be wary of the fact that the Boxer has been Knocked Down a couple of times. Now he is facing a pretty big hitter in Lyndon Arthur who has stopped twelve of his sixteen beaten opponents and even managed to put down tough Emmanuel Anim when winning the Commonwealth Light Heavyweight Title.

He won't need to go looking for Spelman in this Title fight and I think that will play into Lyndon Arthur's hands, which look to be heavier than his opponent's. Over Twelve Rounds I would expect Arthur to begin to punish Dec Spelman and it may result in either the referee or the corner looking to pull out their man.

The Mancunian has suggested that he could finish this early, but I do give Dec Spelman's toughness some credit and will just look for Arthur to find a finish at some point over the thirty-six minutes they are in the ring with each other.

Jordan Gill vs Reece Bellotti

Both fighters are under 30 years old, but this is very much a crossroads night for both Jordan Gill and Reece Bellotti who both looked destined for big things before running into upset losses.

Twenty-three straight wins for Jordan Gill had him headlining events, but he was stunned in being stopped by Enrique Tinoco and in the last fifteen months he has had just six more Rounds since then.

Also, Jordan Gill has dealt with some health issues which even put his Boxing career in jeopardy and you do have to put this together and begin to wonder how much he has left to give. There is no doubting the skill levels of Gill and he is the superior Boxer in this fight, but you do have to wonder how much his body can take if Reece Bellotti can fire up some of the big punches he is known for.

A misdiagnosis hindered Jordan Gill's ability to move past his Thyroid Disease, but he has made it clear that he is better now and ready to refocus on his Boxing career which stalled in that loss last year.

Jordan Gill will be looking to contain the press that Reece Bellotti is going to try and put on him and he should be able to get the better of the pure Boxing exchanges. However, Bellotti has been known to work hard and hit harder even though he has been beaten in three of his last five fights.

They have a common opponent in Ryan Doyle who stopped Reece Bellotti in an upset before being stopped by Jordan Gill in his next fight. I don't think that is going to be something that bothers Bellotti who has also suffered a couple of Split Decision defeats since then and the loss to Doyle can be put down to a lack of focus on the part of the Watford man.

Reece Bellotti knows it is looking like a 'win or bust' night for him on Saturday and I think that inspires him to close the gap whenever he can and unload on Jordan Gill. A counter could be his downfall, but Bellotti will want to test out the Gill body and see whether he is capable of standing up to his level of puncher having stopped twelve of the fourteen fighters he has beaten in the pro ranks.

On the cards I think it will be very difficult for Bellotti to win this fight, but I do think he is good enough to force the fight and make Jordan Gill work at a pace he may not like. That pressure and aggression could see Bellotti sneak a couple of early Rounds and I think he will be the fighter who comes on strong the longer this goes on.

It is a Ten Rounder which lessens the enthusiasm to back Reece Bellotti, but I do think this is a closer fight than the oddsmakers do. If Jordan Gill is still having a few health issues and is perhaps a little soft in the body, Reece Bellotti hits hard enough to ask a lot of questions and I think he is worth a small interest to earn the big upset.

The reality is that Jordan Gill prior to the loss to Tinoco would have been a similar price to the one we are seeing for this one in my opinion- only now we know Gill might not be the most confident in being able to absorb punishment in the body and he has largely been inactive over the last fifteen months.

Reece Bellotti has not exactly been fighting every week, but he has had fourteen Rounds in the bank since Jordan Gill's defeat in May 2019 and that is eight more Rounds than his opponent. As long as Reece Bellotti isn't reckless, I think he can make this very competitive and force the pace against a superior Boxer, one that Jordan Gill may not enjoy.

Dalton Smith vs Nathan Bennett

A strong amateur career was not signed off with an appearance at the 2020 Olympics and with the way things have gone in the world it might have been the best decision Dalton Smith has made.

He enters his sixth professional fight this weekend and is a big favourite to see off 9-1 Nathan Bennett, although the latter is speaking confidently about taking an opportunity to change his life.

An upset win for Bennett will do that as he will likely get plenty more work with Eddie Hearn's Matchroom promotion, but this will be the first time the Liverpudlian has taken on an opponent with a winning record. Only two stoppages in nine wins suggests Nathan Bennett doesn't really hit hard enough to earn the respect of Sheffield's most successful amateur Boxer who has stopped his last four opponents since turning professional.

Dalton Smith has revealed he had a lot of hand injuries during his time in the amateurs, but he feels those are now behind him and he has yet to be taken beyond the Fourth Round. This is the next step on his progression as a Boxer as he moves into his first fight scheduled for more than Six Rounds, but I do think Smith can get on top early and have another relatively early night.

There are levels in Boxing and I expect Smith to clearly show he is levels above Nathan Bennett. I expect the latter to give it a go, but I think he will quickly learn that his opponent has the heavier hands and I do think Dalton Smith gets this over with in the first half of the scheduled Eight Rounds.

Fabio Wardley vs Simon Vallily

With very little experience, Fabio Wardley decided to move into the professional Heavyweight ranks of Boxing and so far it is so good for Dillian Whyte's protege. We are going to learn a lot more about Wardley on Saturday evening as he gets set to take on Simon Vallily who looks to be the toughest opponent of his relatively young career so far.

Size is very much on the side of Fabio Wardley, but he has also displayed plenty of athleticism in his career so far. However, Simon Vallily will be the first to tell you that Wardley has not fought anyone of note yet and he wants to bring the fight to the 25 year old and see exactly what he is made of.

Simon Vallily moved up to Heavyweight having lost the last fight at Cruiserweight to Craig Glover. Since then he has four fights at this weight, won three by stoppage and also beat common opponent with Wardley in Phil Williams. Simon Vallily needed the cards to earn the win over Williams but Fabio Wardley stopped him in Three Rounds, although that rarely means a lot in Boxing.

What it should underline is that Wardley is the bigger puncher in this contest and a lot is going to depend on how much Vallily can take from him. All of the indications from the underdog is that he is looking to test Fabio Wardley and will go looking for him and I am not sure that is the right approach at a weight where Wardley is the more natural.

In his two stoppages at Cruiserweight, Simon Vallily was knocked down early in both although one of those defeats came against the quality of Mairis Breidis. You do have to question how much he can take from someone like Fabio Wardley who clearly does hit very hard and I think this could be a rough, early night for the veteran fighter.

I expect Simon Vallily to show heart and guts, but Wardley will be expected to have too much for him. He sets up his shots well and I think once he has Vallily hurt he will get the job done, although Fabio Wardley still has plenty of learning to do before he is ready to take the next steps in his career.

The anger displayed from Simon Vallily in the last presser may work into Fabio Wardley's hands who may not have to look too far to find his target in this bout.

James Tennyson vs Gavin Gwynne

There are some good looking fights on the opening card that Matchroom have put together in Eddie Hearn's back garden and this looks like being another.

James Tennyson has very little give in him and he takes on a tough Welshman in Gavin Gwynne who has a single loss on his record against Joe Cordina last year.

His Northern Irish opponent has been beaten three times and all by stoppage, but Tennyson has looked stronger at Lightweight and has four wins behind him and all before the scheduled Rounds were completed. Three of the four fighters faced since his loss to Tevin Farmer have had winning records when they have entered the ring and the stoppage of Craig Evans in November 2019 was a very strong win for James Tennyson.

Neither has been in the ring in 2020 which means there are some doubts as to how they are feeling as they deal with ring rustiness, but I can't see anything but a physical, tough fight where the two Boxers will be trading some heavy leather for as long as it lasts.

Gavin Gwynne doesn't have the strongest of resumes, and he came up short when fighting for the British Lightweight Title last year. However there is no doubting that he won't take a backward step in this one and Gwynne may be the naturally bigger man having had some fights at the Light Welterweight Division since turning professional.

The experience edge may be with James Tennyson who has had more fights and fought for a World Title, but being the bigger man has to be a factor for Gavin Gwynne. He may try and outbox Tennyson using his length, but much is going to depend on how he handles the power that the Northern Irishman has clearly brought up to the Lightweight Division.

It really does feel like both men may end up meeting in the middle of the ring and letting their hands go and Gavin Gwynne will be well aware that as hard as James Tennyson hits, he has been stopped in all three of his previous defeats. Those have come at the hands of smaller men than Gwynne, although two stoppages in twelve wins for the underdog is not exactly screaming out 'Knock Out' in this one.

He is a tough fighter though and I think this is going to be a bout in which James Tennyson is going to have to wear down Gavin Gwynne. The latter may try and use his size to keep clear of the heavy artillery that is going to be thrown his way, but I think eventually we will see Tennyson catch up to him and that should lead to a stoppage win for the favourite.

Stopping Gavin Gwynne will really lay down a marker for the future for James Tennyson and I think the fighter from Belfast will eventually be able to do that.

Sam Eggington vs Ted Cheeseman

It doesn't feel that long ago that Ted Cheeseman was headlining events and looking like a Boxer that was going to be pushed along for World honours.

Things have not really gone as expected for Cheeseman since 2019 and he has not won any of his last three fights, losing two and earning a draw in the other. Out of the ring issues have not helped Ted Cheeseman either, but the 24 year old will be frustrated that the last Decision went against him when facing Scott Fitzgerald.

Some will think it is harsh to suggest it is a crossroads fight for both Boxers, but you have to believe that is the case. Ted Cheeseman can't afford to drop another defeat to a British level opponent, while in the other corner Sam Eggington has already been fortunate enough to remain on track for a World Title bid despite having six defeats already.

Every time it has felt like Sam Eggington has hit a wall in his career he has bounced back with some big performances and I do think the fan friendly style is giving him more opportunities than others may have not been afforded.

This should be another one, although you can see a situation where Ted Cheeseman looks to showcase his superior Boxing skills and pick off the rushing Sam Eggington. That was the tactic employed in the close defeat to Scott Fitzgerald, although Cheeseman is looking to impose himself and bully his opponent a little more in this one.

For the early Rounds I do think Cheeseman will look to frustrate Eggington before he begins to break down what have been vulnerable defences showed by the latter. Ted Cheeseman is indicating he is in a much better space mentally now and I do think he will want to avoid another Decision he doesn't agree with having felt he did enough to beat Fitzgerald and Kieron Conway.

I have no doubt that the Sam Eggington tactic will be to get forward and try and land as much as possible to allow his power to make the difference. Ultimately he has been found out when he has stepped up and I do think Ted Cheeseman has better all around skills which will allow him to dictate the direction in which this fight goes.

A points Decision would not surprise me in favour of Ted Cheeseman, but I do think he will push for the stoppage once he gets through the early storm. Sitting down on a few shots against Sam Eggington who likes to defend using his head rather than his hands could prove to be telling by the latter Rounds and I do think Cheeseman will look to settle the fight without the need for the judges.

The last two defeats suffered by Sam Eggington have come in stoppages and I do think Ted Cheeseman might have enough volume to secure another one late on in this bout.

MY PICKS: Lyndon Arthur to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Reece Bellotti @ 4.50 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Dalton Smith to Win Between 1-4 @ 2.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Fabio Wardley to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.66 Sky Bet (2 Units)
James Tennyson to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.37 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ted Cheeseman to Win Between 7-12 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

NBA Picks 2019/20 (July 30-August 14)

There isn't an aspect of our usual lives that has not been affected by the pandemic which has taken hold over the last several months and sports is no different.

Many are beginning to return in a new look and that is the case for the NBA who have decided to send their remaining twenty-two teams to a 'bubble' in Florida where the remaining regular season games and the PlayOffs will all be played.

It isn't going to be the same as previous years even if the format for the post-season is going to be what we have become accustomed to seeing- no home court advantage surely opens the door for a number of teams to perhaps surprise their way into a Championship success.

Going into the resumption of play I would still be very surprised if one of the two Los Angeles teams is not playing in the NBA Finals, but the Eastern Conference looks more difficult to predict. No fans and no home court advantage is going to level up the playing field and I do think the regular season games to be played will be a good indicator of which teams are going to cope with things best.

Eventually I do think the cream will rise to the top as players become used to the surroundings, but it will be interesting to see and I will admit it is very welcoming to have more live sports back in our lives. It sounds a little sad that so many can't cope without it, but sports is the great relief to everyday life and I do think the post-season of both the NBA and NHL will be bringing the drama that only sporting events can.

I will place all of the regular season picks from the next two weeks in this one thread before we get into a potential Play In situation.

Personally I would have loved to have seen the NBA take a risk with the format for these unprecedented times and perhaps set up a World Cup kind of format for the post-season, but ultimately Adam Silver and the players likely preferred the regular PlayOff setting to try and keep things as normal as possible.

It was a chance for the NBA, but the bigger concern is making sure everyone involved remains healthy and the teams can compete without fear during a time when cases in the United States continue to produce eye-watering, sad numbers.

I hope that is the least we see over the coming weeks and nothing like the outbreak already witnessed in the Major League Baseball season. From there we can enjoy the Basketball as the short run towards the PlayOffs begins on Thursday 30th July and then it is onto the fun of the post-season.

Thursday 30th July

Utah Jazz @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick

The decision was made to use a 'bubble' at Disney World in Florida and that means there is going to be a new look to the PlayOffs and the end of the regular season.

While the format remains the same for the post-season, the fact that all games will be played in neutral settings does remove the need for travel and perhaps having to deal with the same issues that have popped up very early on in the Major League Baseball season which recently got underway.

One change in the PlayOff format is the chance for the Number 9 Seed in either Conference to have an opportunity to 'play in' to the post-season with the regular season cut short. It looks unlikely to be used in the Eastern Conference with only the Washington Wizards invited along who are not in the PlayOff spots, but the Western Conference has five teams looking to chase down the Number 8 Seeded Memphis Grizzlies and at least have a shot at beating them out for the final place in the PlayOffs.

There are some decent looking teams looking to do that knowing if they finish the regular season within 4 games of the Number 8 Seed that they will get an opportunity to make the post-season. One of those is the New Orleans Pelicans (28-36) who won two in a row back in March and who will open the NBA regular season bubble on Thursday.

Zion Williamson is the big name with the young Pelicans roster who are looking to make a point having traded away Anthony Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers before the season began. The irony is that the Pelicans would be looking to upset Davis' new team if they can make the PlayOffs and the Pelicans had won eight of their previous thirteen games to earn some positive momentum.

However, it has been made clear that the Pelicans feel the future is more important than the present and that means they are going to be careful with their young players. Instead of taking risks, the Pelicans will make sure the minutes are well spread to build experience which will put the team on a good platform for the years ahead when they will be looking to win a Championship.

There are some doubts about whether Williamson can participate in this opening game having recently returned to the bubble after being given permission to attend a family matter. He is only just out of quarantine and it feels the minutes will be restricted in a best case scenario.

Offensively New Orleans are a strong looking team, but Zion Williamson is already a leader for this young team and it will be a much tougher game for them without him. They did win all of their scrimmages getting ready for the restart, while the Pelicans are capable of plenty of energy around the boards to at least force second chance points, but this is far from an easy opening game.

The Pelicans take on the Utah Jazz (41-23) who have already secured a PlayOff spot, but who will be looking to perhaps improve their current Number 4 Seed in the days ahead. They are only 3 games behind the Los Angeles Clippers as the Number 2 Seed, but it is a tightly congested portion of the standings and a strong end or a poor one could see a vast difference in their final position.

It is also going to be a test of the chemistry of the Jazz who saw a falling out between key players Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell thanks to some of the most ridiculous actions you will have seen from anybody in the public eye. Those actions have to be attributed to Gobert's foolishness having dismissed the virus affecting the world and deciding he would touch all of the reporters and team mates' belongings without a care in the world.

Things changed for Gobert when he tested positive for Covid-19 and the strained relationship between himself and Mitchell came about after it was revealed the latter had also picked up the infection. It was largely blamed on Gobert's disregard for advice given to the public, but both players are entering the bubble trying to focus on their basketball rather than off court issues.

Judging by Rudy Gobert's comments, it feels like the Jazz are largely back on the same page now although they are going to be missing Bojan Bogdanovic for the remainder of the season. The sharpshooter was the second highest scorer on the roster and a serious threat from the three point range, but a wrist injury needed surgery and he will be replaced by Joe Ingles in the starting line up.

There is still confidence that Utah can be a real threat in the post-season having seen Ingles and Mike Conley playing well in scrimmages, but the intensity will be different now. Utah do have a good Defensive unit which always keeps them in games though and if those two players can find their range it should make Gobert and Mitchell big threats for the Jazz from an Offensive point of view.

Utah's big man might have been responsible for the decision to shut down the NBA when it was made, but the Jazz had been surging in a positive direction before that. The Jazz have won five of their last six games and they have already beaten the New Orleans Pelicans twice in three meetings in 2019/20.

All three games were high-scoring affairs, but the rustiness of coming out in the bubble is hard to factor into this game. If there is any, the Utah Jazz are the stronger team Defensively and that could give them the edge in a game in which it feels like they are set as the underdog because it 'means more' to the New Orleans Pelicans.

The early games in the NBA might need some watching too, but the Utah Jazz do hold a 9-4-1 record against the spread in their last fourteen against the New Orleans Pelicans. With Zion Williamson arguably still building up towards his peak levels, I think Utah will find enough scoring from the likes of Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Rudy Gobert and Mike Conley to edge to an upset win.

Utah are 6-0 against the spread in recent games set as the underdog and I think they can keep this one close at the least.

Los Angeles Clippers @ Los Angeles Lakers Pick

Nothing has really changed over the course of the season and the Los Angeles Lakers (49-14) and the Los Angeles Clippers (44-20) are set to open up against one another on the first day of the new look bubble of the NBA. Home court advantage would not have been important when the Lakers and Clippers were likely to meet in the PlayOffs, but the neutral setting of the remainder of the season does take away from the Lakers who are set to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

That makes other Series on the way to the NBA Finals look potentially more dangerous and in the last eight games of the regular season it would need something miraculous to happen if the Lakers were to blow their 5.5 game lead at the top of the Conference.

Things are a touch more murky for the Los Angeles Clippers who will be desperate to finish with either the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed in the Conference. It would guarantee avoiding playing the Lakers until the Western Conference Finals and they are 3 games ahead of the Utah Jazz in the current Number 4 spot, although the First Round Series is going to be a tough one for the Clippers no matter how things end.

Both teams have lost some key players ahead of the resumption of play with Avery Bradley being the most notable for opting out of the season. The Lakers also going to begin without Rajon Rondo, who has an injury, but they have been able to sign the likes of Dion Waiters and JR Smith to make up for the losses and boost the bench.

On the other side the Los Angeles Clippers are likely going to be missing Lou Williams and Montrezl Harrell who both had to leave the bubble. Better news comes from the likely suiting up of Patrick Beverley, Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, while the break will have given the likes of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard a chance to refresh.

That break may also be music to the ears of the Los Angeles Lakers with LeBron James as fresh as he ever would be going into the PlayOffs. His partnership with Anthony Davis has worked as well as the Lakers would have hoped over the last several months and Davis is expected to play despite being poked in the eye in a scrimmage game against the Orlando Magic last weekend.

In a seven game series I do think it is going to be very hard to separate the Lakers and Clippers if both teams are healthy. My edge would be with the Clippers, although in this opening game on the resumption of play you do have to think they are missing key contributors which gives the Lakers a real edge.

Both teams are strong Defensively, but the second unit of the Clippers will have been dented without Lou Williams, while I do think JR Smith and Dion Waiters can give the Number 1 Seed a boost. Neither team will want to show too much of their hand with their Seeding positions largely in control and with seven more regular season games to complete to secure their spots.

Scrimmage games have shown that both the Lakers and Clippers look to be in good shape and it is a series in which the underdog has had the better of things in 2019/20. All three previous games have been won by the dog, but here I do think the Lakers will be able to square things up for the season having lost the first two games and beaten the Clippers just days before the suspension of play back in March.

My feeling is that the Lakers might be more keen to lay down a marker in this one ahead of a potential Series in the PlayOffs and the key contributors missing for the Clippers will be hard to make up.

However it may be more likely that the two teams are looking to hide some of their cards for a potential PlayOff Series and that may see the two Defenses coming out on top. Games between the Lakers and Clippers have been tough affairs already this season and the potential rustiness of the teams for the intensity of a real NBA game might just slow them down too.

With the Clippers and Lakers both missing some key players, I think the total may be very slightly on the high side here and looking for a fourth 'under' of the season between these two may be the best play.


Friday 31st July
Memphis Grizzlies @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There are some big Seeding games in the NBA on Friday, but the return of Basketball also means you may want to take a watching brief on some of the teams involved. While there are six games scheduled on the day, only one of those is appealing enough from a NBA Pick point of view.

That comes from the second set of games scheduled for the day's play when the Portland Trail Blazers (29-37) take on the Memphis Grizzlies (32-33). If the regular season had been completed as planned it may have been difficult for the Trail Blazers to close the gap to the Number 8 Seeded Grizzlies, but the new look end to the season gives them a chance with a strong finish.

One or two players in the Memphis camp are not happy with the new rules which state that the Number 8 Seed has to finish at least 4 games clear of the Number 9th placed team in either Conference to earn a guaranteed PlayOff spot. That is not likely to be an issue in the Eastern Conference, but the Grizzlies have a host of teams below them that are almost certain to finish within that mark and that will mean a 'Play In' situation.

It would mean the Number 9 Seed needs to beat the Number 8 Seed twice to steal their PlayOff spot, while the Number 8 team would only need to win once, but the Grizzlies do feel it is another obstacle in front of them in what has been a season of overachievement. That overachievement gives them some confidence though and Memphis had won four of their last six games before the sudden postponement of the NBA back in March.

The Grizzlies have the size to challenge the Portland Trail Blazers and during the regular season they have played pretty well at both ends of the court. A young team have certainly played above the levels that most expected of them and Ja Morant has been everything the Grizzlies would have hoped when Drafting him last year.

A few months ago the Grizzlies would have been very confident they could secure a season success over the Trail Blazers who reached the Western Conference Finals last season. There were some suggestions that the big names in the Portland camp would not be involved in the resumption of play, but Damian Lillard's biggest issue is a foot problem he is dealing with although that is not expected to keep him out of this one.

Trevor Ariza is one player that won't be involved, but the four and a half month break between games in the regular season has boosted the depth of the Trail Blazers. Both Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins would have missed the regular season if the season had completed when it should have, but both are ready to go now and that is a big boost for the Trail Blazers.

It should help them, but you can't expect massive things from players who have not played a competitive game for months. However, if both Nurkic and Collins are back up to the levels that we know they can play at, the Portland Trail Blazers may be the most dangerous team in front of the Memphis Grizzlies when it comes to the final spot in the Western Conference PlayOffs.

Those big men can give the Grizzlies a real challenge on the boards and I do think the underachieving Portland team will be a threat in this short run to the post-season. Defensively the Trail Blazers can be vulnerable though and you do have to wonder if their team is ready to go right away having struggled in the scrimmages preparing for the restart.

My feeling is that Portland may be a touch overrated at the beginning of the resumption because we don't really know how their returning players are going to cope. The young Memphis team will feel they have nothing to lose and they are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Portland which includes beating them outright in two of the three earlier meetings.

Add in the fact that the Grizzlies are 10-4 against the spread when given 4 or fewer points as the underdog this season compared with Portland being 7-10 against the spread as the small favourite and I do think backing the underdog may pay off here.

It isn't a huge spread, but Memphis might be able to score enough points to stay with the Trail Blazers and force this game to go down to the wire.


Monday 3rd August
I had a couple of busy days so I was not able to put in the kind of research needed to make any NBA Picks as the regular season continues in the NBA bubble in Orlando.

It has been a weekend with some mixed results as teams try and rediscover the chemistry and consistency they would have had without the long break from playing competitive basketball.

I do think by the time the PlayOffs will come around that the teams will all be in better shape, but for now you have to expect some ups and downs.

Denver Nuggets @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: Home court advantage is not going to exist in the NBA PlayOffs in 2020, but that doesn't mean any team wants to roll into the post-season with no momentum behind them. There is plenty of movement in terms of Seeding in the Western Conference to come in the days before the PlayOffs and only 3.5 games separate the Number 2 Seeded Los Angeles Clippers and the current Number 6 Seeded Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24).

Bridging that may be a step too far for the Thunder, but they can certainly improve their current spot and that will begin if they can beat the Denver Nuggets (43-23) as both teams get set to play a second game in the NBA bubble.

The Thunder crushed the Utah Jazz, but a short-handed Denver team were blown out by the Miami Heat on the same day. It does mean the Thunder have a bit more momentum behind them having picked up from where they left off in March, and they will be looking to win a fifth game in a row and move into a position where they can control the kind of PlayOff path they want to lead.

Expectations have been surpassed by the Thunder throughout the 2019/20 season and the team do feel they have been given a huge boost by a returning Andre Roberson who was one of the elite Defenders in the NBA before suffering a long-term injury. Roberson has looked like an improved player in the NBA bubble, although his minutes will be restricted for now to make sure there isn't a setback.

With Chris Paul leading the team, the Thunder look in confident mood but the same cannot be said for the Denver Nuggets. They gave up 125 points to the Miami Heat on Saturday and Will Barton, Gary Harris and Jamal Murray were all missing.

We don't know if any of those players will be available for the Monday game with the Thunder, but it does mean Denver are going to struggle to contain Oklahoma City. Despite being short-handed, I do think the Nuggets will have expected a much better all around in their loss to the Miami Heat and that should make them more competitive in this one even if those three mentioned are unavailable again.

Denver struggled at both ends of the court in their opening loss in the NBA bubble, but there will be a demand to show more intensity on the Defensive side of the court. That should make them more competitive, but Oklahoma City have a very strong Defensive team from which the foundation for success this season have been built.

The Thunder are 14-4 against the spread when favoured by less than 7.5 points this season and the Nuggets are 5-8-1 against the spread when given up to 7.5 points as the underdog. Oklahoma City have also been strong when playing teams with a winning record and they did beat the Nuggets when these teams last met a few months ago.

Denver do have a very strong recent record against Oklahoma City, but they failed to cover for the first time in ten games against them last time out. The Nuggets are also 0-4 against the spread in their last four games as the underdog and I do think Oklahoma City will just have a little too much on both ends of the court which helps them cover this mark.


Indiana Pacers @ Washington Wizards Pick: Only nine teams were invited to the NBA bubble from the Eastern Conference and most felt it was going to be a big ask for the Washington Wizards (24-42) to even force a 'Play In' situation for themselves. That was mainly down to the fact that some key players were not going to join their team in the short run to the PlayOffs and ultimately the Wizards have looked unlikely to trouble any team in the top eight.

Losing to the lowly Phoenix Suns is one thing, but on Sunday afternoon the Wizards were beaten by the Brooklyn Nets and now trail the current Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference by 7 games. To make matters even tougher on the Wizards, they become the first team that is going to be asked to play on back to back days in the bubble and they are going to be desperate to find a win.

That may make Washington a dangerous team, but they are without the likes of John Wall, Davis Bertans and Bradley Beal and most teams would find it difficult to plug those gaps. The team have struggled all season Defensively so when you miss those players who can take the scoring load on their shoulders it does gel together to become a very difficult situation all around.

Scott Brooks is not allowing his team to give up, but the Wizards have a very difficult set of remaining games and another defeat would virtually end their season. By hook or by crook Washington have to win out, but it is going to be a tough game in front of them when they meet the Indiana Pacers (40-26) who look to have recovered some health in the enforced break that was provided by the Coronavirus outbreak.

A win over the Philadelphia 76ers in their first game in the NBA bubble will give the Pacers some real confidence even if they are not considered a threat to the top teams in the Eastern Conference. The Pacers will be looking to use that expectation to motivate them and they are a team that is perhaps better than the sum of their parts.

Indiana do have a team that can exploit the Defensive shortcomings in the Washington squad, while they are very strong on the other side of the court. Rebounding could be a problem for them when they get into the PlayOffs, but this is not a game where that should be an issue for the Pacers and putting that together makes them a strong favourite.

I have to respect the fact that the Wizards have a 7-2 record against the spread when playing the second of a back to back this season. However, those games were played with a deeper looking rotation than the one they are using in the NBA bubble.

The Wizards are 0-5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog including being covered in both in the bubble so far. Indiana are 4-1 against the spread in their last five against the Washington Wizards.

Knowing the PlayOff situation is beginning to slip away from them and having so many big name players missing is going to make it difficult for the Washington Wizards to motivate them in the remaining days in the NBA bubble.

Some of the players may already be thinking about returning to their families and a team like the Indiana Pacers could expose any lack of motivation in the Washington squad.

It is a big mark, but the Pacers can beat out a team on the second half of a back to back and I think they can cover here.


Tuesday 4th August
Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Pick: We are already beginning to see some of the potential PlayOff Series coming together in the NBA bubble and that is especially the case in the Eastern Conference where the top eight teams are almost certainly set.

The Milwaukee Bucks are almost guaranteed to finish with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and the teams below them in the standing are looking to position themselves to make sure they can avoid having to play them before the Eastern Conference Finals. A win on Tuesday would put the Boston Celtics (44-22) in a position to effectively wrap up a top three Seed and that would mean they can build up towards the potential Finals clash with the Bucks as players improve their fitness.

It is the last chance for the Miami Heat (42-25) to close in on the Boston Celtics in the spot above them in the standings, although making up the 2.5 game gap at this stage looks a long shot. The Heat are playing on a back to back having lost a close on to the Toronto Raptors on Monday and some inside the locker room may believe it is better to tank out the remainder of the regular season and fall as low as the Number 6 Seed if possible.

That is an unlikely mindset with a player like Jimmy Butler leading the Heat, but this is a team who have struggled playing the second half of a back to back all season. They invested a lot of effort into the Monday defeat to the Raptors while the Boston Celtics were resting and Miami are just 3-6-2 against the spread in that spot this season.

Miami have also struggled when put in the underdog spot and the Celtics have covered the mark in the last three against them including in both games played this season.

Both teams are 1-1 since joining the NBA bubble, and I do think both are very capable of having a deep PlayOff run. However the additional rest for the Celtics and perhaps the game meaning a little more to them could make the difference.

It does mean they can play the more intensive Defense which is a key to the outcome of the game and Boston should be fully concentrated on this game to make sure they are on the opposite side of the bracket to the Milwaukee Bucks. There isn't a game on deck which should take away the concentration of the Celtics and I think they will have enough to cover here.


Wednesday 5th August
Memphis Grizzlies @ Utah Jazz Pick: There are always going to be conspiracy theories surrounding a new look schedule like the one the NBA had to put together, but the loudest voices insist the Memphis Grizzlies (32-36) are not the kind of team that the League would like to see in the First Round of the PlayOffs.

The Play In tournament was one aspect going against the Grizzlies, while the end of the 'regular season' in the NBA bubble looked a tough one and so far it has gone the way the NBA would like, at least according to those shouting conspiracy.

Memphis have lost all three games played in the bubble and are now only 1.5 games clear of the Portland Trail Blazers and with a host of other teams closing in too. At this point a 'Play In' may be the best bet for the Grizzlies, but securing the Number 8 Seed in the Western Conference would at least mean the Number 9 ranked team would have to beat them twice to steal away their PlayOff spot.

To that end the Grizzlies need to start winning as it looks like both the Trail Blazers and the San Antonio Spurs have some momentum behind them. The upcoming games are anything but easy and the Grizzlies have lost Jaren Jackson Jr for the season, although they may not have a better opponent to face than the Utah Jazz (42-25) who have lost back to back games.

Losing to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers is much different than losing to the Memphis Grizzlies and the Utah Jazz have managed some Fourth Quarter scoring to overcome the New Orleans Pelicans in the bubble. There are some questions about the Jazz on both ends of the court which need to be answered before the PlayOffs begin, and motivation should remain high for a team who are still playing for Seeding in the Western Conference even though home court is no longer an issue.

There was always a concern for the Jazz that they would miss the scoring punch that was given to them by Bojan Bogdanovic who shut things down for the season prior to the resumption of play. It has proven to be the case so far, although Utah are facing one of the weaker teams in the bubble on Wednesday rather than those looking to go deep in the PlayOffs and that proved to be a winning situation last week when edging out the Pelicans.

If the Grizzlies make as slow a start as they have to each game in the bubble then it will be very difficult to peg back a Jazz team that is still strong Defensively. However, performing for the full 48 minutes has been on the mind of the players and with Ja Morant still performing as he has been, the Grizzlies will definitely believe they can make a good fist of things and at least end the losing run.

Utah just may not have enough scoring to really pull clear of this mark if the Grizzlies are making a strong start to this one. They deserve to be favourites because the Jazz have won two of the three meetings between these teams in the 2019/20 season, both straight up and against the spread, but things are very different for both teams in the NBA bubble and Utah have not played to a level which makes you think they can win easily.

The Jazz are just 2-13-2 against the spread in their last seventeen games as the favourite and it can't be ignored that the Memphis Grizzlies have been in competitive losses in the NBA bubble. None of the defeats have come by more than 10 points and the first two losses were by 5 points or fewer.

Add in the Utah sole win that either team has produced came by a couple of points and I do think the underdog is worth backing here.


Toronto Raptors @ Orlando Magic Pick: Both of these teams are very much on course to enter the PlayOffs and depending on the way things go in the next few days there is every chance that this is a preview of one of the First Round Series in the Eastern Conference.

The Toronto Raptors (48-18) are the defending NBA Champions, but not many tipped them up to be capable of repeating having lost a couple of key performers in the off-season. None were more important than Kahwi Leonard, but the Raptors have rallied together and three wins in the NBA bubble over the Utah Jazz, Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat have given people pause for thought.

All of a sudden it is not solely about avoiding the Milwaukee Bucks for as long as possible with the Raptors arguably looking as strong as any going for the NBA Championship. They can effectively wrap up a top two Seed in the Conference with a win on Wednesday and the Raptors will then be able to rest bodies and minds before the PlayOffs begin, although the spot is one that concerns me between big games against the likes of the Lakers and Heat and then having the Boston Celtics on deck.

It could easily lead to a situation where the Orlando Magic (32-36) are overlooked by the Raptors having been beaten three times in the regular season already. The Magic do have a healthy lead over the Washington Wizards in the Number 9 spot in the Eastern Conference which would see them avoid a Play In situation, but Orlando will be looking to bounce back from their blow out loss on Tuesday to the Indiana Pacers.

Before that the Magic had won their first two games in the NBA bubble, but the surprising form shown by the Brooklyn Nets means Orlando have slipped into the Number 8 Seed in the Eastern Conference. They can pick and choose which of the top two teams they would want to face, but teams in their position just simply want to go into the PlayOffs with some momentum behind them.

A part of the reason for the blowout loss may have been the injury suffered by Jonathan Isaac in the previous game. After returning from a long lay off, Isaac looked to be playing really well and is a key Defensive piece for the Magic and the whole team may have started off feeling sorry for themselves in the defeat to the Pacers.

It has been made clear to the entire squad they will need to be a lot better to compete with either Milwaukee or Toronto in a potential First Round Series, but Orlando do produce enough Offensive output to be dangerous to those teams. The Magic will need that side of their game to be operating at close to full tilt if they are going to challenge a Toronto team who thrive on Defensive intensity and it will be a key to the outcome of each game these teams play in the remainder of the season.

You would expect Toronto to have enough Offensively to hurt the Magic considering the levels the latter have produced and now being without Jonathan Isaac, while the Raptors also have the energy around the boards to win the rebounding battle.

The Raptors have covered in the last five games between these teams and Orlando are 3-5-2 against the spread in ten games played in the second half of a back to back. 

Orlando are also 9-18-1 against the spread this season when playing a team with a winning record and I think the Raptors can make it four from four both straight up and against the number in this one.

MY PICKS: 30/07 Utah Jazz + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

30/07 Los Angeles Lakers-Los Angeles Clippers Under 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
31/07 Memphis Grizzlies + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
03/08 Oklahoma City Thunder - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/08 Indiana Pacers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
04/08 Boston Celtics - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
05/08 Memphis Grizzlies + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
05/08 Toronto Raptors - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NBA Update: 3-3, - 0.23 Units

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (July 26th)

The final day of the Premier League season is here... But the decision has already been made that the 2020/21 season will begin on September 12th.

Before that there is the small matter of concluding the Championship Play Offs, the Europa League and Champions League Knock Out ties and the FA Cup Final which will all be played in the next month. It does mean some teams will have a very short amount of time to prepare for the new season and the players will have a limited break before they asked to come back and get ready to go again.

The 2020/21 season looks like it is going to be tightly packed in when you think the Euro 2020 tournament will begin on June 11th and knowing that domestic seasons will have to be wrapped up before then. The FA Cup Final is almost certainly going to be played before the season ends on May 23rd and I think we will soon hear that the Replays have been scrapped and those involved in European competitions will be exempt from taking part in the League Cup for one season.

It has to be done and it is going to be a difficult time for managers especially with the loaded Christmas schedule in England and the likely removal of the Winter Break for a season too. The Champions League and Europa League Group Stage matches are to played on consecutive weeks with the only breaks being for Nations League fixtures and I do wonder if the Euro 2020 tournament will suffer as so many of the top players are effectively going to be played for almost eleven months straight when that event gets going.


Things will shape up interestingly over the coming months, while fans who have Season Tickets for clubs, like myself, are wondering when we will be allowed back in Stadiums. It is almost a certainty that crowds will be limited and phased back, but for a club like Manchester United with over 40,000 Season Ticket Holders it is much more difficult to know how they can appease everybody.

Away fans are almost certainly going to be excluded from Stadiums until the next calendar year and watching on TV is simply not the same experience for many of us.


It is all about safety though and I wouldn't be keen on returning to 70,000 plus spectators packed into Stadiums as soon as October, especially not knowing what a second spike in Coronavirus cases are going to look like before we get a vaccine or at least something that reduces symptoms.

So for now we have to take what we can and simply having sports to enjoy is not something we should be taking for granted after the developments this year.


Onto the final day of the Premier League and the final Fantasy Football GameWeek of the prolonged season- you will see my thoughts about GW38+ below.

Before that you can read how I think the final round of fixtures will progress which is also going to play a huge part on how I use my Free Hit Chip.


Arsenal v Watford Pick: It is a little under three years ago when Troy Deeney questioned the 'cajones' of the Arsenal team that had just blown a lead and lost 2-1 at Vicarage Road. This comment has helped increase the rivalry between the clubs, but Arsenal have responded by beating Watford three times in a row since then and were 0-2 up at Vicarage Road before settling for a 2-2 draw earlier this season.

Some things have changed at the Emirates Stadium, but there are enough players left over from October 2017 who would be looking to show Deeney that Arsenal have got plenty of fight in them.

The bonus is that a home win would likely be good enough to relegate Watford to the Championship and coming off the defeat to Aston Villa it would be ironic for Deeney and his team-mates if Arsenal are the team who effectively sent them down by losing to their relegation rivals and then beating Watford themselves.

There isn't much for Arsenal to play for which is contributing to their price, but Mikel Arteta will be demanding a reaction to the defeat at Villa Park. Poor finishing let them down that day, but Arsenal have been better at the Emirates Stadium where they have won 5 of their last 7 in the Premier League and the players are fighting for FA Cup Final places which should be motivation enough.

Just because Watford 'need' the points more than Arsenal it doesn't mean the motivation is necessarily higher in the away dressing room. The Cup Final is motivation enough for Arsenal and the Watford players have admitted confidence is not in a great place after the 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City and losing manager Nigel Pearson so late in the campaign after he gave them every chance to avoid the drop.

Watford have lost 5 away Premier League games in a row and have only scored a single goal in that run, that being a consolation at West Ham United. They were blown away in the first half that day and Arsenal will be hard to pull back if the home team can take advantage of any slow beginning Watford make in this one.

The Hornets have lost their last 2 visits to the Emirates Stadium and I do think Arsenal will be too good for them on Sunday too. There wasn't a lot of fight in the Watford team in their last couple of Premier League games and I do think Arsenal have been stronger at home under Mikel Arteta and they have the strong attacking players that can take this game away from their visitors.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: A strong season comes to a close for both Burnley and Brighton on Sunday and there really isn't a lot to play for.

Games like this can be surprisingly entertaining as neither team has anything to lose, but I think the motivation in the home dressing room may be a touch higher than in normal circumstances. This season there are rumours that Sean Dyche will be managing his last game for Burnley at Turf Moor and that should have the players looking to end the season on a high and let the directors and board know they want Dyche to be kept around.

Burnley are unbeaten in 6 at Turf Moor, although 4 of those fixtures have ended in draws.

The draw might be a big player for those looking at trends considering Brighton have drawn 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games too and it does make this a difficult fixture to get a good read on.

My edge has to be with Burnley who don't concede a lot of goals but seem to create chances at Turf Moor. However Brighton do play attractive football and they will want to get forward and challenge a Burnley team who have conceded a single goal in 3 of their last 4 home games.

Honestly I can see this fixture going a number of different ways, but the home team players look like good shouts for those who want a cheap defender to throw into their Fantasy teams in GW38+.


Chelsea v Wolves Pick: This is a huge game for both Chelsea and Wolves and the onus is largely on Wolves to get on the front foot and try and win the game.

Both teams are chasing European berths, the former in the Champions League and the latter in the Europa League, but Chelsea can afford a draw to achieve their ambitions. A draw is less rewarding for Wolves who would need Tottenham Hotspur to fail to win at Crystal Palace to earn a Europa League spot.

Otherwise a fall into 7th place will mean Wolves will need Chelsea to beat Arsenal in the FA Cup Final or have to win the Europa League next month to return to European Football which is very important to the development of the club.

Wolves won't be intimidated by having to win here and they will be encouraged by some of the recent defensive performances produced by Chelsea. The Blues are susceptible to good set pieces and Wolves are very capable of exposing them there, while Raul Jimenez continues to make use of limited spaces to find the back of the net.

It certainly wouldn't be in Frank Lampard's thinking to play for the draw which would guarantee Chelsea a top half finish. In recent games they might have defended poorly, but they have looked a real menace going forward and I expect Lampard will be looking for his team to take the game to Wolves and secure their place in the premier European competition behind a strong performance.

They created plenty in their 5-3 loss at Liverpool during the week and I do think Chelsea can have some positive moments in this fixture too. The attacking players will feel they can break down what is a stubborn Wolves team and the situation may see both teams having to 'go for broke' at different times during the ninety minutes.

2 of the last 3 games between these clubs have finished with at least three goals shared out and I think that is the direction this fixture will go. Chelsea are plenty short despite the fact they have won 5 in a row at Stamford Bridge, but they do score goals here and Wolves will feel the fact they have scored in 6 of their last 7 away games in all competitions will see them create chances here.

Things may really open up in the second half and I think it will be one of the higher scoring fixtures of the final day.


Crystal Palace v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: There might not be much for Crystal Palace to play for in the final game of the 2019/20 season, but Roy Hodgson will be urging his players to produce one more big effort and snap their 7 game losing run in the Premier League.

It is a big ask of a small squad which has been decimated by injury and suspension and the problems in defence have become too much for Crystal Palace to cover up. They have been conceding goals for fun in the last month and Crystal Palace have lost 3 in a row at Selhurst Park while conceding at least twice to Chelsea and Manchester United.

That is not the kind of form you want to be displaying when coming up against Harry Kane and Tottenham Hotspur who are ending the season surging towards the Europa League. A win on Sunday might be enough for Spurs to be back in European competition in the 2020/21 season and Jose Mourinho has made it clear he wants to be involved as it gives him a chance to make use of his squad and offer another avenue back into the Champions League.

Back to back wins while scoring three times will be a huge confidence boost for Tottenham Hotspur and Harry Kane has scored four times in those wins over Newcastle United and Leicester City. The win at St James' Park ended a poor away run and will have given Tottenham Hotspur plenty of belief they can secure another victory on Sunday.

Playing a team with the issues Crystal Palace have should be perfect for Tottenham Hotspur and Kane being in form should give the visitors a big edge. They have won 4 Premier League games in succession at Selhurst Park and I do think Tottenham Hotspur will have enough attacking outlets to secure a win here while continuing the poor trend of conceding goals that Crystal Palace have had of late.


Everton v Bournemouth Pick: Things have become very clear for Bournemouth after their 0-2 home defeat to Southampton was followed by Aston Villa beating Arsenal at Villa Park.

Now they need both Watford and Aston Villa to lose and at the same time win at Goodison Park- even then it will come down to goal difference.

Ultimately Bournemouth have to get forward and score goals to have any chance of extending their stay in the Premier League and that could leave them very open to an Everton team who have a long unbeaten run at Goodison Park to protect. The home players can't afford to take things easy with Carlo Ancelotti making it clear he is analysing the squad and looking to improve it between seasons.

That should keep Everton interested and they may have spaces to exploit when Bournemouth begin to get desperate and chase the game. I think that will make the difference on the day as Everton use their quality in the final third to just create enough chances against this porous Bournemouth defence to allow them to finish the season with a positive victory behind them.

Everton have not finished the season in the manner the manager would have wanted, but the win at Sheffield United last Monday suggests they have enough motivation to win this one too.


Leicester City v Manchester United Pick: It feels like none of the three teams chasing two Champions League places in the Premier League have really wanted to finish in those places as they keep slipping up when opportunities have been presented to them.

Going into the final day it is Chelsea and Manchester United who control their own destinies, but both clubs are facing difficult fixtures against 'upstarts' who want to get into the European places too.

Manchester United visit the King Power Stadium and I think both Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and Brendan Rodgers would take being in this position going into the final day.

Brendan Rodgers will know his Leicester City should have secured a top four place, but back in August he would have very much signed up for having to win their final home game to earn Champions League Football. The form over the last several months has not been good enough, but Leicester City have won their last 2 games here as they look to bounce back from a very disappointing 3-0 loss in North London at Tottenham Hotspur last weekend.

Beating Crystal Palace and Sheffield United with clean sheets will give Leicester City some belief at home, while this is a team who have created some very good chances in recent games. That is a marked improvement to last month when Leicester City were struggling to create chances, and Rodgers will believe his team can expose what has been a vulnerable Manchester United defence over the last two weeks.

In saying that Manchester United have kept 3 away clean sheets in a row in the Premier League and they have scored at least twice in each of those games to secure wins. Those have come at Brighton, Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and Manchester United have had some fortune in those matches to turn things in their favour.

The 1-1 draw with West Ham United during the week does mean the onus is on Leicester City to get forward and that should be something that Manchester United look to exploit. The front three will have more space than they had against The Hammers and it is all about making good decisions in the final third against a Leicester City team who are missing key personnel in defensive areas.

The first goal could be huge and it will open up the game with the teams chasing results barring news coming through that Wolves are winning by a wide margin at Stamford Bridge. In that case they could both settle for a convenient draw, but I would expect the match to start off fairly open as both Leicester City and Manchester United look for the goals to put them in a strong position regardless of what is going on in West London.

Both teams have been creating chances at home/away respectively and there is some tiredness and fatigue which is perhaps making life more difficult for the defenders to contain their attacking opponents.

I do think both will have chances to score and the 1-1 might be suitable if Wolves are winning well going into the final twenty minutes. I do think that is unlikely to be the case so both managers will be looking to secure their top four berth by finding the result they need and I think goals could be the outcome of this one too.

In the last couple of seasons games between these teams have tended to be relatively competitive and low-scoring, but the situation is clear for both and the need to score goals could open things up. A late goal either way is not out of the question if one has to chase and I think there are enough strong attacking players that can make the difference for their team.


Manchester City v Norwich City Pick: This is one of the Premier League games with nothing riding on it on the final day of the season, but Manchester City should be plenty motivated to keep the momentum going before they face Real Madrid in the Champions League.

The 0-4 win over Watford on Tuesday shows the side are not going to ease into the end of the Premier League campaign, while not many associated with the club will have forgotten losing to Norwich City in September 2019.

It was the best performance of the season from Daniel Farke's side, but as the months have progressed it has become clear that Norwich City are not really cut out for this level. They are going to finish bottom of the pile and Norwich City have lost 9 Premier League games in a row and only managed to score a single goal in that time.

Expecting them to hurt Manchester City is a big ask, and it is going to be a long day trying to contain a team who are looking to move back into the Champions League with some momentum behind them.

The worry for Norwich City has to be how Manchester City have flowed through the gears when they have gotten in front in games since the resumption of play. The likes of Burnley, Liverpool, Newcastle United, Brighton and Watford have all been seen off by four or more goal margins, while Bournemouth were 2-0 down before half time in the last game at the Etihad Stadium.

Granted Bournemouth at least fought back and deserved more than they got, but Norwich City have not shown an ability to do that in recent months. The Canaries have not been blown away too often and only narrowly lost at Stamford Bridge in their last away Premier League game, but Liverpool, Manchester United, Wolves and Arsenal have all beaten Norwich City by three or more goals at home this season.

On current form it is very difficult to imagine this not being a one-sided home win and I do think Norwich City could have a very long day in the office if they fall behind early in this one. Manchester City will want to earn a measure of revenge for the away loss at Norwich City and they will want to give David Silva a strong sending off in his last Premier League game for the club.

They should have far too much for their visitors on Sunday and Manchester City likely win by a very comfortable margin.


Newcastle United v Liverpool Pick: If this was part of the fixture list in September or October you would likely lean to a comfortable Liverpool win, but the team have not finished the season with a flourish.

A 5-3 home win over Chelsea shows that Liverpool have far from downed tools, but the team have struggled for consistency away from home. That is going to have to be factored into this one, although the injuries in the Newcastle United squad does make the home team vulnerable too.

Tottenham Hotspur recently won 1-3 here and I do think Liverpool will pick a strong team, although it is hard to really select any of their assets for the Fantasy game. Liverpool have not defended well enough to really want to pick one of those players at a premium price, while the front three have been rotated and none are showing consistent form in the final third.

I still think Liverpool will have too much, but it is a more difficult game to read as players begin to think about their short break before they begin preparing for the 2020/21 season. I expect the away team to win pretty handily on the day, but Newcastle United shouldn't roll over and I expect a challenge from them.

Ultimately I expect an away win on the day and likely one by a comfortable enough margin to clear the handicap.


Southampton v Sheffield United Pick: Two teams who have had very strong seasons meet on the final day and both Southampton and Sheffield United should want to produce some football to celebrate how well the season has gone for them.

Both Ralph Hasenhuttl and Chris Wilder will be looking for one more big effort from the players before a short break and the end of season form has been decent enough from both to expect a good outing.

However, Southampton have been a little more consistent and I would give them the edge over a Sheffield United team who have missed out on European Football over the last few days.

Southampton have not played as well at St Mary's as they have away from home which raises some doubts as to whether they can finish the campaign with another win. They are facing a Sheffield United team who have lost their last two games without scoring a goal and who have looked a little leggy in recent games.

It should be competitive and perhaps even a fun fixture with both teams looking to attack, but my narrow lean is with Southampton and Danny Ings perhaps edging close to picking up the Golden Boot.


West Ham United v Aston Villa Pick: For a number of weeks most would have pointed to this final day fixture as being a pivotal one in terms of the relegation places in the Premier League.

Unsurprisingly it has remained the case for Aston Villa, but West Ham United have secured Premier League Football by picking up 11 points from their last 18 available. They are mathematically secure of top flight football after the 1-1 draw at Manchester United during the week, but West Ham United will be looking for a strong end to the campaign with the momentum needed to have a much brighter beginning to the 2020/21 season coming up.

The side have won 3 of their last 5 at the London Stadium and West Ham United have been creating a lot of chances in those fixtures as they built some confidence.

It is not what Aston Villa would want to hear, but Dean Smith has to be very pleased with his team who have secured 7 points from a possible 9 to move out of the bottom three in the Premier League table. That will have given his players confidence as they hold a narrow edge over Watford and will feel matching whatever result achieved by The Hornets at the Emirates Stadium will be enough to secure survival.

A defeat will leave Aston Villa vulnerable to Bournemouth too, but a draw would likely be a result they will take right now. Only a Watford win at Arsenal would relegate Aston Villa in that situation, but I do think the layers are perhaps overestimating the visitors just because they 'need' the points more than their hosts.

West Ham United are playing well and Aston Villa are a team that can lack goals. If the home team get one you would find it hard to believe they are going to lose this game and I think there may even come a point where Aston Villa would settle for that result, but I do believe the more likely winner is the home team even if the odds don't say the same.

Aston Villa have not won any of their last 11 away games in all competitions and have not beaten West Ham United in East London in their last 4 attempts to do so. Earlier this season it ended in a goalless draw at Villa Park and I do think West Ham United showed enough at Old Trafford to believe they won't be lying down for their visitors on Sunday afternoon.

The home team should be good enough to avoid defeat at the least and that will at least leave the door open for a surprising end to the season in terms of the relegation places.

MY PICKS: Arsenal - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Burnley 0 Asian Handicap
Chelsea-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Everton 0 Asian Handicap
Leicester City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals
Manchester City - 2.75 Asian Handicap
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap
Southampton 0 Asian Handicap
West Ham United + 0.5 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 38+

GameWeek 37+ could not have been much more miserable for the Fantasy team I selected as the prolonged reliance on the Liverpool defence came back to bite me.

Manchester United also were a big letdown and are now involved in a huge game at Leicester City as they bid to return to the Champions League, while the lack of returns from the Manchester City assets despite a 0-4 win at Watford has to sting.

It was frustrating, but I can still win a number of localised Leagues and also want to break back into the top 100K for the season by ending the campaign with the Free Hit Chip being used.

My Free Hit seems to be easy to use- I want to fill up with Manchester City assets playing Norwich City at home and also use the Tottenham Hotspur players at injury hit Crystal Palace in a game they have to win.

Filling in the gaps will determine how much I can invest in other areas, but you can see some of my thinking below in the knowledge that I will be making changes right up until the 3pm deadline on Sunday afternoon.

I did have David Silva in my original thinking, but there is this fear that he could be brought off at 21 minutes with a 'guard of honour' on his final appearance for Manchester City in the Premier League. Otherwise I would expect him to have every chance to take all of the direct free kicks and penalties that may come City's way even though Raheem Sterling is chasing down a milestone in the League.

I think Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne will both play to maintain some rhythm ahead of the big Champions League game against Real Madrid. Riyad Mahrez didn't start on Tuesday and is expected to return, while Gabriel Jesus is another who needs the confidence boost of starting and scoring goals so all four players are in my thinking.

For Tottenham Hotspur the three players I am most considering are Serge Aurier, Lucas Moura and Harry Kane. You have to feel for Aurier who had a personal heartache earlier this month when his brother was killed in France, but he has continued to play and is a potential assist maker, while playing a goal-shy Crystal Palace has to help.

Harry Kane has scored four goals in two League games and will lead the line again, while Lucas Moura could be a cheap option in the midfield against a team who have conceded at least three times in three home games in a row.

Christian Pulisic, Raul Jimenez, Jamie Vardy, Anthony Martial and Mason Greenwood are all options in what I feel will be high-scoring games.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could have more spaces to exploit against a Bournemouth team chasing goals, while Michail Antonio and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang have home games against relegation threatened clubs that may have to take chances at some point too.

My thinking on the final day is to not spend too much on the defensive players on what is usually a high-scoring round. Teams are not concentrating as much as they would be earlier in the season and with the upcoming break for many I do think there will be less desire to keep the ball out of the net for many.

There are some cheap options out there which enables me to pick a very strong front seven that could at least help produce a big week.

I will update this thread around 2pm on Sunday with a few final thoughts about how the squad is shaping up, but it does look a week in which there are a number of players that could provide big points if at their best.


[UPDATE] As we enter the final hour of the final GW of the 2019/20 season this is the time to try and avoid overthinking things.

There are going to be rumours about 'breaking' team news and you also have to accept there will be some strange selections made by the managers who have less to play for. With that in mind I am trying to keep those having something to play for onside and that includes Manchester City preparing for a Champions League tie in less than two weeks time.

My final decision looks to be going 'weak' at the back with cheap options to make up the three and then hit the front seven as hard as possible. I will keep a couple of good subs on the bench in case of changes by managers and hopefully it will be a strong end to the season.