That isn't to say that there hasn't been any surprises- Marin Cilic came out of left field to win the title last season, while I don't think too many would have picked Juan Martin Del Potro to win the men's title in 2009 and Sam Stosur taking the title in the women's event in 2011.
However, those have been rare events with Rafael Nadal winning twice and Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray winning one each between the Del Potro and Cilic title wins. Before Del Potro it was Roger Federer's domain as he had won five in a row here in New York and he comes in for the next two weeks as big threat to win Number 18 in terms of career Grand Slams.
Since Stosur won the women's event, Serena Williams has won three in a row in New York as she goes for a fourth in a row and a season sweep of the Grand Slam titles. Before Stosur, six titles were shared by Kim Clijsters, Serena, Maria Sharapova and Justin Henin.
It does look difficult to look beyond the favourites with the way the draws have panned out this week, but this is the time to look through and see what are the best outright picks from the week.
Some will point out Nick Kyrgios and Gilles Simon as one awkward opponent that Murray and Wawrinka will have to play respectively, but Murray has a strong record against the young Australian, and Simon's form this summer hasn't matched what took him to the Wimbledon Quarter Final.
While Andy Murray will likely go into the Quarter Final as the favourite, it has to be noted that Stan Wawrinka has won their last two matches at the US Open in 2010 and 2013 and the latter has arguably improved since then having won his two Grand Slam titles in the last two seasons. Stan Wawrinka can get on a roll once he reaches the latter stages of a Grand Slam, but it also has to be remembered that he has been beaten in the Quarter Final in three of his last five Slams, reaching the Semi Final of one and winning the other since Wimbledon 2014 and it does seem like Wawrinka has found some consistency in the Majors.
It is tough to oppose Andy Murray, but I think Wawrinka has every chance of seeing him off if they meet in the Quarter Final with his record against Murray in Flushing Meadows.
I've already pointed out that I think Novak Djokovic is going to be very happy with the way the draw has panned out for him, but arguably Roger Federer is going to be feeling even better as he looks for his first title in New York since 2008.
Winning in Cincinnati has become the norm for Federer in the build up to the US Open and that also importantly gave him the Number 2 Seed, which has looked even more key when looking at the Quarter that Andy Murray got as the Number 3 Seed.
Roger Federer should be able to ease his way through the draw with the most difficult test not coming until a possible meeting with home hope John Isner in the Fourth Round. However, Isner is someone who could be dragged into long matches earlier in the draw which saps some energy and has also had some leg issues to deal with over the last month. Add in Federer's experience of playing big servers in the past and I think the Number 2 Seed manages to get through to another Quarter Final here, what would be the eleventh in the last twelve years since first winning the title here in 2004.
In fact, Federer has reached the Semi Final or better in nine of the last eleven years, but one exception was a Quarter Final defeat in 2012 when he was beaten by Tomas Berdych, a potential Quarter Final opponent again. You can't be anything but impressed by the consistency that Berdych has shown for much of 2015, but he did look out of sorts in Cincinnati and I do wonder if he is fully healthy as we head into the final Grand Slam of the season.
That might give Richard Gasquet a chance to reach another Quarter Final in a Grand Slam this season to follow his success at Wimbledon, but Roger Federer has to fancy his chances of seeing off either of those opponents.
That to me is a kind draw for Roger Federer and I do wonder if he is going to have too many better opportunities to win another title at the US Open. I have always though the only two events where Federer could add to his 17 Grand Slam titles are Wimbledon and the US Open and he was close in SW19 before running into Novak Djokovic.
The World Number 1 doesn't have a great record in Flushing Meadows, relatively speaking of course, but you also have to be wary of it being six years since Roger Federer reached the Final here.
However, he looks the player most in form and in the best draw out of the top three players that are favourites to win the title including Andy Murray and Djokovic. I think Roger Federer looks a good each-way pick to at least reach the Final and perhaps go on and win his first Grand Slam since Wimbledon 2012.
I have wanted to oppose Djokovic because he has looked like an elbow issue is troubling him more than previously thought and losing to both Murray and Federer in the Masters events could have knocked confidence. However, Djokovic couldn't have hand-picked a draw much better than what he has and it might be an upset that needs to happen to prevent him reaching the Final here.
Over five sets you'd think he is ready by that point to beat Federer, but I still want the latter on my side instead.
Why not Andy Murray? My reason is simply the Third Quarter of the draw looks a toss up between him and Stan Wawrinka and that might be the kind of match that drains the winner and allows Federer to pick them off in the Semi Final.
Instead I think there might be something in having an interest in Stan Wawrinka to win the Third Quarter in what looks like a straight toss up between himself and Andy Murray. With two previous wins over Murray at the US Open, I wouldn't be surprised if Wawrinka muscles his way past him here and a small interest is warranted.
MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Roger Federer @ 5.00 Paddy Power (2 Units E/W)
Stan Wawrinka to Win Third Quarter @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Serena Williams @ 1.91 Bet Victor (6 Units)
Simona Halep @ 13.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit E/W)
Ana Ivanovic to Win Second Quarter @ 6.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Caroline Wozniacki to Win Third Quarter @ 4.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Weekly Final: 8-5, + 4.60 Units (26 Units Staked, + 17.69% Yield)
Season 2015: + 1.93 Units (1378 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)