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Monday, 3 August 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 3rd)

It was a big week for Rafael Nadal who earned a morale boosting title in Hamburg but I still think he is far short of his best and unlikely to make a big impact over the next six weeks which will culminate with the US Open.

The serve continues to look vulnerable and Nadal's movement is still not up to his very best, while the depth on his shots are lacking the consistency that took him to the top of the men's game. Nadal is still far short of what Novak Djokovic has been producing, but it is clear that the Spaniard has some big goals for the rest of the season including reaching the ATP Tour Finals in London.

Nadal has spoken about that all week in Hamburg and the 500 points he earned will be very important for him and I think he is on course to finish in the top eight of the Singles Race despite his World Ranking dropping to Number 10.

He will need to try and take the momentum of the title win this week into the Canadian and Cincinnati Masters which begin next week for two weeks and Nadal can hope for a couple of strong showings to take into the US Open. However, there is still some road to tread before Nadal is able to say he is back to his best and the hard work will continue for him despite the clear emotion he displayed after winning the title in Hamburg.

John Isner won the title in Atlanta for the third time in a row, but the other big news in my opinion was the second title in a row for Dominic Thiem. He was an impressive winner over David Goffin and two titles in back to back weeks has to be applauded.

Thiem has shown he is perhaps ready for another move up the World Rankings and goes for a third consecutive title in Kitzbuhel this week before heading to North America. I am a big fan of Thiem so it is very good to see him beginning to pick up titles and show plenty of consistency and I hope he can build on it heading into the final Grand Slam of the season.

Federico Delbonis - 1.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: Two clay court players who might see this as their last big chance to put up some big Ranking points will meet in the First Round at Kitzbuhel. I would imagine both Federico Delbonis and Pablo Carreno Busta would have been disappointed with their summer clay court showings over the last couple of weeks, but both are also comfortable on the clay and will be expectant for more.

For me the edge goes to Delbonis in this match as he has performed better on the clay courts at the main Tour level as well as on the Challenger circuit than Carreno Busta. I believe his left handed serve can give Carreno Busta something to think about and the Argentinian has won the two previous matches between them.

Some will point out that Carreno Busta has won a title on the Challenger Tour more recently than Delbonis, while his win over Robin Haase last week is a higher profile win that anything his opponent has produced over the last two events. However, Delbonis has had the more difficult draws early in an event so I am not reading too much into that.

It will likely be tight and Carreno Busta is capable of producing a strong set of games as he did in this three set loss to Dominic Thiem last week. But I do think Delbonis can come through in three tight sets and the last seven losses Carreno Busta has suffered on the clay courts in a main Tour event has seen him fail to get within this number.

Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 games v Rogerio Dutra Silva: Any time a player comes through the qualifiers, I have admitted that they can be dangerous with a familiarity with the conditions that perhaps their opponent does not have. That might be the only reason that Rogerio Dutra Silva has the chance for the upset over Santiago Giraldo, but the latter was playing well last week and I do think he will find a way through to the Second Round.

Santiago Giraldo decided to miss his home tournament in Bogota this year in a bid to play three European tournaments on the clay courts. The last two have perhaps not been as effective as he would have liked, but he did reach the Quarter Finals last week and that is some decent form to take into Kitzbuhel.

He will need to be at his best both mentally and physically to see off Rogerio Dutra Silva who has won plenty of matches on the Challenger Tour on this surface. The Brazilian has beaten Benoit Paire on the clay and pushed the likes of Federico Delbonis and Pablo Carreno Busta in matches too, but I think Giraldo has the power to push Dutra Silva onto the back foot.

There are vulnerabilities in the Dutra Silva game and Giraldo did crush him in Houston when they met earlier this season for the loss of four games. Dutra Silva had a couple of tough it out wins in the qualifiers and may be worn down by Giraldo in a 64, 64 win for the Colombian.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis - 1.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)
Santiago Giraldo - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Final14-10, + 4.96 Units (48 Units Staked, + 10.33% Yield)

Season 2015+ 15.77 Units (1226 Units Staked, + 1.27% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

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