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Wednesday, 26 August 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 26th)

Sam Querrey just couldn't get anything going on the return of serve on Tuesday and that saw him lose his match against Simone Bolelli after three tie-breakers were played and without facing a break point in the match.

To be fair, Bolelli hadn't faced a break point in the first two sets himself, but he had to save two in the final set and that was the key to getting through to the Third Round despite struggling to have an impact on the Querrey serve.

The events in New Haven and Winston Salem will continue on Wednesday as the US Open Qualifying Rounds continue to be played in anticipation of the Grand Slam beginning on Monday. The draw for the US Open will be made at the end of the week and the players are starting to arrive in New York City for that Slam.

Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 games v Olga Savchuk: A solid run in Stanford saw Karolina Pliskova reach the Final there, but she struggled in the two Premier Events in Toronto and Cincinnati. With the US Open fast approaching, Pliskova is looking for a confidence boosting week in New Haven and showed she has the heart for the fight after coming through her First Round match despite dropping the first set.

It should be a good match up for Pliskova to reach the Quarter Final here as Olga Savchuk hasn't played too much hard court tennis on the North American courts this past month. Savchuk can't be underestimated because she has won four Singles matches to reach the Second Round having come through the qualifiers, but the standard of opponent has risen markedly.

For this to be the kind of match up that Pliskova can dominate, she has to get her serve working again as that shot has been letting her down over the last three weeks. When she is serving well, the confidence quickly filters through the rest of the Pliskova game and she should have a chance to have a real effort at breaking the Savchuk serve.

The Pliskova form is a concern, but she played well enough in Stanford to suggest she can turn things around and playing against an opponent that has shown little ambition on the North American hard courts has to be a positive. If Pliskova can serve well, I do think she wins this one 75, 62.

Madison Keys - 2.5 games v Petra Kvitova: This is as much to do with believing Madison Keys is going to be a player that is going to continue rising up the World Rankings as it is about Petra Kvitova struggling with her mono illness which has produced some difficult defeats.

It hasn't been the best time for Keys since Wimbledon as she has struggled to put together a series of wins on the North American hard courts which should favour her game. There have been some inconsistent results for Keys through the season, but she is in line to have her best year in terms of wins on the Tour and this is a great chance for Keys to beat Kvitova for the second time this season.

Kvitova admitted that she has been suffering with mono and she has lost both her matches on the hard courts this summer since that news has come out. The defeat to Victoria Azarenka might be forgivable, but a defeat to Caroline Garcia in three sets was unexpected and struggling with her serve is going to make it very difficult to beat Keys as long as the American is using her own serve to full effect.

It is hard to back Keys as a favourite in a match like this, but the circumstances look right to back her and I think she will cover this number once tiredness and mental fatigue sets in for Kvitova.

Kevin Anderson - 2.5 games v Jerzy Janowicz: Neither one of these players have too much in their game that the other will be unfamiliar with- Kevin Anderson will use the big serve to set up big shots from the baseline, while Jerzy Janowicz has a big serve but also has a tendency to go to the drop shot even if that shot is not exactly the most effective shot to take.

Those drop shots are a reason that he doesn't protect his serve as well as the Pole should considering his height and power he gets out of it. He is also very likely to throw in a number of double faults and giving Anderson a start will only mean this match is likely to go in one direction and that is towards the big South African.

A tie-breaker is not out of the question and their previous two matches have both featured at least one, but Kevin Anderson ran away with the match between these two at the US Open last year. Of course Janowicz might really enjoy the conditions in Winston Salem having reached the Final there last year and a win over Anderson will make him believe he can go one better this time around.

However, I think Anderson is the more solid player of the two and is unlikely to gift a break of serve in the same manner as Janowicz and I think Anderson moves on to the Quarter Final.

Borna Coric - 3.5 games v Diego Schwartzman: There is no surprise that there have been some ups and some downs in Borna Coric's first full year on the Tour, but the 18 year old has shown the talent which has many tipping him to go to the very top of the men's game. The hard courts should give him the edge over Diego Schwartzman in this Third Round match and help Coric reach another main Tour Quarter Final as he continues to improve his World Ranking.

Coric should considerable determination to come from a set down against Santiago Giraldo and beat the Colombian convincingly in the last Round. He also should have beaten Stan Wawrinka in Cincinnati last week and should be too good for Schwartzman who has had to dig deep to beat two clay courters this week.

The Coric forehand can break down at times, but I think his return of serve will keep Schwartzman under pressure and that will eventually wear down the latter both physically and mentally. Schwartzman was broken six times by Pablo Andujar in his last match and he does have to work hard for every service hold he manages, especially on the faster surfaces where players can use their power to hit through the court.

I expect there to be a few breaks of serve in this one too, but Coric to come out on top for the most part of the longer rallies. That should lead to a 63, 64 win for the higher Ranked player and a place in the Quarter Finals.

MY PICKS: Karolina Pliskova - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Madison Keys - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Borna Coric - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.54 Units (4 Units Staked, - 13.5% Yield)

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