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Tuesday, 25 August 2015

Tennis Picks 2015 (August 26th)

We are now just a few days out from the start of the US Open and the final week before a Grand Slam can be a tough proposition when it comes to picks. Motivation from players is simply not as high with the Grand Slam fast approaching, although most of the names out this week in Winston Salem don't really have big expectations to win the tournament at Flushing Meadows.

There are a few more contenders out in New Haven in the WTA event being held there, but picks this week will only be made if I feel they are worth making as the focus has shifted towards the US Open.

Caroline Garcia - 1.5 games v Magdalena Rybarikova: It has already been a strong week for Magdalena Rybarikova who has come through the qualifiers and won a match in the main draw. Four wins in a row will give Rybarikova some real confidence going into this Second Round match with Caroline Garcia, although it has to be said the Frenchwoman has been in better form of the two players.

Garcia has had some impressive wins over the last ten days having beaten Sabine Lisicki and Petra Kvitova in Cincinnati before dismissing Timea Bacsinszky for the loss of just four games in the First Round here. Her serve is a decent weapon on the faster surfaces and Garcia has managed to hold herself together pretty well, one of the main reasons she has failed to really move up the World Rankings as expected.

Mentally Garcia is never far away from throwing in a shocking set of games and that has to be a concern against an opponent like Rybarikova who is capable of putting together strong runs herself.

It won't be a big surprise if this match needs three sets to settle it with both Garcia and Rybarikova capable of strong momentum and poor play within short periods of time. Break points will come for both players and it will come down to which of them is a little more proactive at those opportunities, while I also think Garcia has the slightly more consistent serve to get out of jams. That might make all the difference in a 64, 26, 62 win for the Frenchwoman.

Sam Querrey - 2.5 games v Simone Bolelli: I am not the biggest fan of the Sam Querrey game because I think he struggles to really work out how to put together points once he has got past the 'big serve, big forehand' first couple of shots. I think that is a real reason he has struggled to really make a prolonged impact on the Tour as players have worked out they can out-rally him in the long run and a clay court expert like Simone Bolelli might feel he can expose that.

However, Querrey is playing on a fast surface that should aid his serve and Bolelli hasn't played too many matches on the hard courts this summer at all. That might be a key to his mindset for the upcoming US Open, although Bolelli has a decent pop on his own serve and was a convincing First Round winner over Federico Delbonis.

The problem that Bolelli has on the faster courts is his defence and I think Querrey will get to see enough second serves to put the Italian on the backfoot and put him under some pressure. If Querrey is serving well, Bolelli is going to feel it mentally to keep up with him and that is where he is likely to falter on serve and give the American a chance to take control.

It does feel like a match that is on the racquet of Querrey and how well he is serving. I just think Bolelli is always likely to offer break point chances despite a solid first serve and if Querrey is rolling through service games, it is more likely that Bolelli makes the mistakes under pressure. I can see Querrey finding his way to a 64, 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Caroline Garcia - 1.5 Games @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sam Querrey - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Cincinnati Masters Final8-8, + 0.34 Units (60 Units Staked, + 0.06% Yield)

Season 2015- 2.67 Units (1352 Units Staked, - 0.00% Yield)

Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

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