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Wednesday, 12 August 2015

Canadian Masters Tennis Picks 2015 (August 12th)

There is always a lot of incremental weather around North America at this time of the year and it looks like it will be no different in 2015. Both events in Toronto and Montreal have been affected by the rain through the first three days here and the same can be expected through the rest of the week.

Cincinnati and New York will also have the same problems and the roof at Arthur Ashe Stadium can't come quick enough at Flushing Meadows.

Hopefully there won't be too many more delays over the next couple of days as the tournament looks to remain on schedule for the Sunday finish.

Gilles Simon - 4.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: It was an impressive win for Mikhail Youzhny against Victor Troicki in the First Round, but I think that has a lot to do with the latter rather than the veteran Russian. Youzhny might have a strong 7-3 head to head record against Gilles Simon, but it is Simon who has won the last three matches and has covered this number each time.

I have to respect the fact that Youzhny has won three matches in a row as that might have restored some shattered confidence, but he is going to have to roll back the years in this one you would feel. As impressive as his win over Victor Troicki was, Gilles Simon is unlikely to be as generous with the points he gives away and is coming in off an impressive straight sets win over Andreas Seppi himself.

Simon has been producing the far more consistent tennis of the two players through 2015 and I think he can wear down Youzhny in this one. He will have to serve effectively to just make this a more routine win than it might otherwise be, but Youzhny's own serve has looked vulnerable at times and he will be physically tested.

If Simon can get an early breakthrough and show Youzhny he won't be giving up too much that the Russian doesn't work for, I like his chances to win this one 63, 64.

Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Bernard Tomic: Both of these players have had some solid success between Wimbledon and this Masters event in Montreal and so confidence shouldn't be an issue. It is a big six weeks for Marin Cilic who won the US Open last season and could have a significant drop in the World Rankings if he can't build some solid points at his next three tournaments, but he made a good start with a Semi Final berth in Washington last week.

He faces Bernard Tomic who won the title in Bogota, but who suffered a disappointing early exit in Washington last week. However, Tomic has won his first match in Montreal although my concern about the Australian is surrounding some of his off-court issues.

That is taking away some of the focus and he will be put under pressure by Cilic who is getting better and better on court after injury hurt the beginning of the 2015 season. After some disappointing early results, Cilic has reached the Semi Finals in Stuttgart and Washington and the Quarter Final at Wimbledon over the last couple of months.

Improving results and battling through tough moments will all bode well for Cilic going forward, although defending his title at the US Open would be a bigger upset than him winning that Grand Slam in the first place. I think he can be too strong for Tomic as long as he serves well and puts pressure on the Australian to stay with him which may result in a 75, 64 win.

Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: I made a point of mentioning yesterday on Twitter that a more confident and efficient player than Fernando Verdasco would have beaten Nick Kyrgios. Verdasco had all the chances, but couldn't hold onto serve under pressure and allowed the youngster to move through, but I like Stan Wawrinka to get the better of him in this match.

Confidence isn't an issue, but Wawrinka can sometimes be guilty of going for the outrageous rather than the high percentage shot although you have to accept that as being part of his game. It clearly works for Wawrinka as a two time Grand Slam winner and the biggest issue for him might be the fact that he hasn't played a match since Wimbledon.

In that time Kyrgios has played a couple of matches, but Wawrinka has previous after beating the Australian at Queens in his first match after winning the French Open title. He will need to serve well, but I think he will be given opportunities to break serve if Kyrgios is as loose in his play as he was against Verdasco in the First Round.

The biggest question is of course the match rustiness that Wawrinka might feel, but I think the Number 3 Seed here this week comes through 76, 64 after a difficult first set.

Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 games v Heather Watson: Andrea Petkovic hasn't been in the best form and an early loss in Stanford was a real disappointment for her. She has had to battle for her couple of wins over the last couple of weeks and will have to be better if she is going to beat Heather Watson.

However, Watson does look a little over-rated in this match despite winning three matches to get into the Second Round after a couple of qualifier wins.

This match will be a battle as both players are very capable of trying to break down opponents, but I do think Petkovic has a little more about her game. As much as Watson is trying to improve the pop on her own shots, that is a work in progress and I think Petkovic will have the better penetration through the court in this one.

It will likely be a tight, hard fought match that could see both players have their chances to pull clear. However, I think it will eventually see Petkovic prevail 64, 46, 63.

MY PICKS: Gilles Simon - 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Stan Wawrinka - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.72 Units (8 Units Staked, - 9% Yield)

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