NBA Finals 2015: Golden State Warriors v Cleveland Cavaliers
The Conference Finals proved to be too straight forward for the organisers of the NBA Finals and the fact that none of those went beyond Game 5 means there has been over a week between the end of those series and the beginning of the NBA Finals. The Association and Vegas have both been in sync this week as they both feel they will lose out if the casual viewers have lost some interest with a large enforced break between the Conference Finals and NBA Finals, but the Golden State Warriors and the Cleveland Cavaliers have enough of a storyline around them to bring back that interest.
Whether it is Steph Curry for the Warriors or LeBron James for the Cavaliers who get the majority of the attention, it will be down to the role players that have helped these teams dominate their opponents in the Play Offs. It will be those role players that may prove vital in the NBA Finals, although both teams have the best Defensive units to try and make the adjustments to slow the other down.
I think this is going to be a better series than I imagined at the start of the Play Offs, but I do think the Golden State Warriors are ready to take the big step in their development and win the NBA Finals for the first time with this crop of players.
The feeling is that it might need to go at least 6 games with James turning in a couple of big performances from Cleveland to prevent them going down earlier than that, but he will ultimately fall to 2-4 in NBA Finals appearances. While that won't change my high opinion of James, it'll be a chance for his haters to really dismiss his achievements with a losing record on the biggest stage.
On the other hand it could be the start of a new dynasty in the Western Conference with the Golden State Warriors young enough to add to the rings they will win, although that Conference remains the most challenging to retain.
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| Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson could be key performers in Game 1 after recovering from injuries Game One
The MVP might be playing for Golden State as Steph Curry has not really allowed his level to drop and escaped a big injury in the series with the Houston Rockets, but the best player of the post-season has been LeBron James for Cleveland as he has led the way for his young team despite being banged up.
James has really done it all for the Cavaliers, even when both Irving and Kevin Love have been missing for Cleveland, and the additional rest will have done him some good. His experience of playing in the last four NBA Finals could be invaluable when the theory goes that a team can't win it all until they have suffered the heartbreak of a Finals defeat or a Conference Finals loss.
The Golden State Warriors have been building a team that would be capable of winning it all, but they haven't really faced that distress yet and the question is asked whether this young, inexperienced team will be able to overcome that. None of the roster have played in the Finals before, although Head Coach Steve Kerr has that experience, and the question is whether the players will be able to get enough from Kerr to know what to expect.
While some will point at Cleveland's starters inexperiences, there is plenty of that in the squad who can pass on fine details to their team-mates. Even ignoring all of James' experiences, the likes of Kendrick Perkins, Mike Miller and Shawn Marion might offer much more behind the scenes than they do on the court, while James Jones has hit big NBA Finals shots.
Tristan Thompson has given Cleveland a real burst on the Offensive boards in replacement of Kevin Love and it will be a challenge for Golden State to keep him off the boards. It will be interesting to see how David Blatt tries to cover Steph Curry who has one of the great shots in the NBA, but there are plenty of other shooters in the Warriors rotation and the Cleveland Defensive performances, which have been stellar in the post-season, will be tested to the full.
Game 1 can be tough to predict in a normal situation, but the long gap between the end of the Conference Finals and the start of the NBA Finals raises more questions. The teams could both have an issue in terms of game rust having set in and so Cleveland might not have a better chance to steal home court from a raucous Oracle Arena.
On the other hand, Golden State have been very strong at home and have the shooters to really expose some of the issues that Cleveland have had prior to the Play Offs. The Cavaliers will need their role players like JR Smith, Matthew Dellevadova and Iman Shumpert to continue their fine shooting which has been prevalent in the Play Offs, but I think it is a big ask for them to beat the Warriors in the opening game.
The Warriors have been the better team coming in off rest periods of three days or more, going 6-2 against the spread in that spot, while home teams have gone 14-3 in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. With the strong support they will get at the Oracle Arena, I like the Warriors in Game 1.
Game Two
That picture above would have made the heart sink for most Cleveland Cavaliers fans, but the news that Kyrie Irving was going to miss the rest of the post-season and the next four months was the biggest of blows. That came off the heels of a disappointing overtime loss in Game One which leaves the Cavaliers fighting back against the Golden State Warriors before they head to Cleveland for two games next week without two of the Big Three they put together in the summer.
The first problem was the Golden State Warriors tightened down on the Cleveland Cavaliers in overtime to win that game by 8 points as the Cavaliers struggled to get anything going Offensively. And that was simply down to Kyrie Irving being injured and having to sit out the final three minutes of overtime, an injury that is going to cost him the next four months as it turned out to be a fractured kneecap. It has been the story of Cleveland's season that they would lose another important piece of their Championship winning puzzle and it looks like the City are going to have to wait yet another year before they can claim a Championship winning team. Irving was special in Game 1 and this looked like a real series with him and LeBron James both in form, but his injury to join Kevin Love on the sidelines might be the end for the Cavaliers. Love has been ably replaced by Tristan Thompson whose pounding of the boards at both ends of the court have proved to be vital for Cleveland throughout the Play Offs. But losing Irving means Matthew Dellavedova will have to play extended minutes and he was destroyed by Steph Curry in Game 1 and is unlikely to be able to do enough to stem the tide on the Defensive side of the court. The other issue is that Dellavedova is not consistent enough Offensively and doesn't have the athleticism that 'Uncle Drew' brought to the team and this isn't the Atlanta Hawks in front of Cleveland now. The Golden State Warriors didn't play at their highest level, but performed well Defensively and have a bunch of shot-makers that can quickly erase deficits as they proved in Game 1. The Warriors also did enough to close down the role players who had a big impact in the first half but really struggled for Cleveland in the second. Iman Shumpert and JR Smith struggled with their shot in the second period, while the Defensive assignments kept LeBron James in jump-shot mode which Golden State will live with. Yes James got himself 44 points, a mammoth total in the NBA Finals, but it took him 38 shots to get to that number and the Warriors won't mind him having those numbers if they can close the role players from having an impact. James is also banged up and will be under more pressure to help Cleveland make this a series now that Irving is out too and it is tough to see how the Cavaliers can respond to the devastating news that came out from Irving's MRI. The Cavaliers do have an edge when it comes to the size in the front court, but the Golden State Warriors can shoot lights out from the three point arc and that means Cleveland have to rely on the likes of Smith, Shumpert and Dellavedova have to make their shots if James is being double-teamed to keep the Cavaliers in with a chance. However that is a lot of pressure on these players and Smith and Dellavedova do struggle Defensively which should open things up for the likes of Klay Thompson, Harrison Barnes and Steph Curry for their open looks where they can be so devastating. Vegas said that Kyrie Irving is worth at least two points to the Cavaliers and that has been reflected in this spread. While Game 1 was incredibly close for a long period, I think the Cavaliers may find it tough to raise their game a second time especially with Golden State now better for having that game under their belt after a week long lay-off prior to that. The Cavaliers are a poor 6-11 against the spread as the road underdog, but they may be inspired to rally together in the face of the injury to Irving. However, I always thought the Golden State Warriors are the better team and their team can roll after an impressive overtime to beat the Cavaliers in Game 1 and I like them to cover in Game 2 too. 
Game Three
It might have been a back-breaker for the Cleveland Cavaliers (1-1) if they had lost Game 2 from a position of real strength, especially another overtime loss to the Golden State Warriors (1-1). Game 1 had been very close, but Cleveland blew an 11 point lead at the end of Game 2 which saw another go into overtime although this time they managed to keep themselves together to secure the narrow two point win.Getting a game at the Oracle Arena will give Cleveland plenty of belief as they return home for two games which could be a pivotal for their chances to win the Finals. LeBron James continues to perform at an exceptionally high level as he looks to pull his team to a high enough standard to win games and he has been doing it all from controlling the boards, scoring points and creating openings for his team-mates. Some of the numbers might not be great, for example James is hitting just 40% from the field and he has missed two game-winning shots in regulation in the last couple of games, but the 'King' is averaging 41.5 points, 12 rebounds and 8.5 assists in the first two games of the series. With both Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love out of the Play Offs, James has taken over and admitted he is at the 'pinnacle of (his) game'. The most startling thing is James has been banged up through the post-season, but he has spoken of giving it his all for the five remaining games in the season. James hasn't been resting much either and he is expected to top 40 minutes in regulation time for the remainder of this series and LeBron has also admitted there is 'other motivations' than simply bringing his home their first sports title. Some are suggesting that one of those motivations is outperforming Steph Curry who was the regular season MVP, but who has been struggling in the Finals with his shot. Curry had a really poor Game 2 from a shooting perspective as Matthew Dellavedova hustled him throughout, but I do think the latter's performance has been overstated as Curry is simply 4/21 from three point range over the first couple of games in the Finals. Curry made some big shots late in regulation in Game 2, but overall he needs to up his game and has admitted that himself. Head Coach Steve Kerr is unworried about Curry's slump knowing how quickly he can rediscover his range and Charles Barkley is another who thinks Curry will soon return to the form that helped him win the MVP award in the regular season. He does need some help too as Golden State have struggled from three point range as a team and that is part of their staple of success for the season. Draymond Green has not really produced on the Offensive side of the court and the Warriors will be looking to make the adjustments to get their team back on track from the three point arc. It isn't just the Warriors who will be looking for some help as Cleveland will be hoping JR Smith and Iman Shumpert can get back on track having struggled for a game and a half. However, the Cavaliers have done a very good job of controlling the tempo of the game and preventing the Golden State Warriors from getting their fast transition play from really getting unleashed. Much of that is down to LeBron James and the Offensive rebounding that Cleveland have been dominating and the Cavaliers have to continue controlling things if they are to spring the upset in the NBA Finals. You have to respect how well the Cleveland Cavaliers have done during the first two games of this Finals, but there is a small turnaround from Game 2 to Game 3 and I don't know the Golden State Warriors will keep missing some good looks. While James is playing like the best basketball player in the world, he is playing big minutes and is going through the pain to get onto the court and the one day rest might not be great for him. Golden State have been strong revenging a home loss this season, although not so good when it comes to recovering from a home loss in their next game. However, Cleveland are 0-3 against the spread as the home underdog and the movement in the line suggests the wrong team was initially favoured. I do think the Warriors are the better team and have to try and impose their game on proceedings, but I also don't think Golden State keep missing their shots. LeBron James has willed Cleveland to success, but this is not the time to get off the Warriors bandwagon and I think they bounce back. 
Game Four
This is not the position that anyone expected the NBA Finals to be in when Game 4 tips off as the Cleveland Cavaliers (2-1) continue dictating the tempo and playing some pounding Defense to lead the Golden State Warriors (1-2). Teams leading the NBA Finals 2-1 win an incredible amount of times, but LeBron James will be the first to warn his team-mates that nothing has been achieved just yet having been part of the Miami Heat team that rallied from this deficit to win the NBA Finals in 2013.The unexpected nature of the Finals and the pressure of playing the big games was always the biggest doubt around the Golden State Warriors who simply don't have the experiences at the highest level. The Warriors have struggled to really impose themselves on the series, but will point to a lot of missed uncontested shots that has to be the most troubling part of the Finals. After going 1-0 up and Cleveland losing Kyrie Irving to join Kevin Love in watching the Finals on the sidelines, Golden State were expected to kick on and begin to dominate. No one accounted for LeBron James producing what is being called the best NBA Finals performance by a single player as he continues to do everything for the Cavaliers as he continues to average 41 points, 12 rebounds and 8.3 assists over the first three games. Yes, the shooting percentage from the field can be better, but most have accepted that this Cleveland team shorn of Irving and Love have no business being competitive. Some have even gone as far as to say the Cavaliers would have struggled to reach double digits in terms of wins in the regular season if they had to play with the role players that James has. The King himself hasn't spoken about what he has achieved so far and is downplaying his impact, instead focusing on the team. James won't care for those saying he should be the MVP of the Finals even if the Cavaliers were to LOSE the series because the return to Cleveland was all about bringing a Championship to this sports-obsessed city. Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova are both expected to begin Game 4 despite suffering some burnout at the end of Game 4 and Cleveland will look to continue dominating the boards and playing tough Defense to wear down the Warriors. However, there had to be some concern with the way Golden State whittled down a 20 point deficit in the second half of Game 3, especially as Steph Curry looked to have got out of a rut in the Fourth Quarter. Curry began to his three pointers and looked to have dragged Golden State back into a position to steal home court back from the Cavaliers, but he had three turnovers and one poor foul down the stretch as Cleveland closed it out. Steve Kerr has to at least be happier that Curry rediscovered his stroke from outside the three point arc, while David Lee had a big impact off the bench and could be in line for more minutes. Draymond Green has been banged up for the Warriors and continues to struggle on the Offensive side of the court, but he will be good to go in Game 4. Golden State have also continued to talk up their chances of a recovery by pointing to the Western Conference Semi Finals when they trailed the Memphis Grizzlies 2-1, another team that likes to slow things down, use their size and Defensive capabilities to win games. The Warriors have some similarities to call upon even if the Grizzlies don't have a player to the level of LeBron James- Golden State won Game 1 at home before dropping two in a row and they averaged just 89.5 points per game in those losses to Memphis. They then made the necessary adjustments to average over 102 points per game over the last three, winning all of those, to move through. In this series, the Warriors have averaged just 97 points per game even though two of those have gone to Overtime and Kerr has admitted that the physical teams like Memphis and Cleveland have frustrated his team. However, the Warriors did find something in the Fourth Quarter of Game 3 which they can lean upon for confidence as they look to make the same kind of adjustments that ended up putting the Grizzlies away. It has been a weird series to predict in that the Golden State Warriors have the talent, but LeBron James is playing at an incredibly high level and forcing his team through games. The way the Memphis Western Conference Semi Final series went down does keep me on the side of the Warriors, plus the the way they finally got something going in the Fourth Quarter of Game 3 when they ultimately came up a little short down the stretch. Steph Curry finally got going again and I think the David Lee impact off the bench will encourage Golden State. Cleveland could be feeling disrespected having been set as a home underdog again, but this is almost an identical situation for the Golden State Warriors with that Memphis series and I think they can bounce back. 
Game Five
The Golden State Warriors (2-2) played arguably their best game of the NBA Finals to tie up the series with the Cleveland Cavaliers (2-2) in Game 4 and will now look to really put the pressure on by winning Game 5 at home. The adjustments made by Steve Kerr to his starting line up and minutes rotation for the players made all the difference in Game 4, but the biggest change had to be the performance of Steph Curry.
The MVP of the regular season had been struggling through the first three games, but found something at the end of Game 3 and it was looked as a real turning point for him. That proved to be the case for Curry in Game 4 and he has now scored 39 points in the last five quarters of this series and Cleveland know they have to change their Defensive assignments to slow him down.
Andre Iguodala was the surprise inclusion in the starting line up for Golden State, his first start through the entire season, but he had been the Warriors best player through the series so far. Igoudala brought a lot of energy to the Golden State team in Game 4 including a couple of fast break dunks in the First Quarter, while he continues to make life difficult for LeBron James with his Defensive skills.
It was James' 'worst' game of the series in Game 4 as he was held to 20 points, although 'worst' is all relative to how impressive he had been performing through the first three games. One concern for James has to be his poor shooting percentage from the field which has dropped to under 39%, but he might take advantage of the extra day of rest as he looks to inspire Cleveland to give another big effort.
James needs help- he has been speaking about giving Mike Miller and Shawn Marion more minutes just to help a short rotation get a little more rest in the series. He will also need the likes of Iman Shumpert, JR Smith and Matthew Dellavedova to produce more than they have on a consistent basis if Cleveland are to end a long wait for a Championship team in the city.
David Blatt knows he can't make the starting changes that Steve Kerr has at his disposal, but he is also aware that his team have had chances to win 3 of 4 games in the series. All the talk in Cleveland is getting back to the tempo that saw them grind out two wins and lose another in Overtime, but they have to find a way to win a second game at the Oracle Arena if they are to take the NBA Finals.
This is a big Game 5- the winner of Game 5 in a tied series has won 20/28 previous NBA Finals and so there is a lot of pressure on both teams. However, I do feel the Golden State Warriors have just found something, even if JR Smith has claimed the only difference in Game 4 was their inconsistent shooters got hot, and the Warriors will look to get a groove going.
I have already mentioned the similarities between this series and the one that Golden State played against the Memphis Grizzlies and that saw the Warriors sweep the last three games comfortably after going 2-1 down in that series. It has always felt the Warriors are the better team and I think a fast start could see them control Game 5 and move to the brink of the NBA Championship.
It is a big number if Cleveland Cavaliers can slow down the tempo, win the battle on the boards and LeBron James can return to the form he showed through the first three games of the series.
However, that is a lot of intangibles to go their way and Golden State Warriors just found something going for them over the last five quarters and I expect they pull away for the cover.
Game Six
Something needs to change and that something needs to change quickly if the Cleveland Cavaliers (2-3) are going to find the right formula to extend the NBA Finals to a Game 7. There wouldn't have been too many who would have predicted this series needing a Game 6 let alone a Game 7 after Cleveland went 1-0 down to the Golden State Warriors (3-2) and losing Kyrie Irving for the rest of the post-season.However, LeBron James picked up the slack and has been producing at an incredible level which has him all but confirmed as the MVP of the series. It is not often a player on the team behind in a series will be honoured like that and it won't matter to James even if he was less humble than usual when proclaiming himself 'the best basketball player in the world' after Game 5. This is simply not something that James does so it was a surprise to many that he felt he needed to reaffirm what most accept as the truth. It might have been through frustration in a series where the Cleveland Cavaliers have gone from 2-1 up and surprising all the naysayers to 3-2 down and looking like they just don't have the answers or the depth to keep up with the best team in basketball. Steve Kerr's decision to play 'small ball' basketball by inserting Andre Iguodala into the starting line up has paid dividends and David Blatt tried to counter that by limiting his own big men in Game 5. However, that seems to work in the Warriors favour with the speed of the game much more in line with what they want to do on the court, although Blatt has refused to be bullied into returning to the Cavaliers bigger line ups that have dominated the glass. It didn't work playing the big men in Game 4 so it shouldn't be that much of a shock that David Blatt is looking to keep up with the way he had the Cavaliers playing in Game 5. At the end of the day, the biggest question mark about Cleveland was simply if they had enough shooting from someone other than LeBron James. While James has the chance to become the first MVP on a losing team in the NBA Finals since Jerry West almost fifty years ago, and only the second ever, the likes of JR Smith, Iman Shumpert and Matthew Dellavedova continue to shoot too inconsistently to help Cleveland have a chance to win the Finals. Smith did start off effectively in Game 5, but didn't score in the final 33 minutes, while both Shumpert and Dellavedova were just 5/18 from the field. This is not going to get it done with Steph Curry rejuvenated after a tough start to the series and he continues to light it up from outside the three point arc while being supported by the likes of Draymond Green, Iguodala and Harrison Barnes. The similarities with the Memphis series continue for the Golden State Warriors too and they won that Western Conference Semi Finals in six games having come from 2-1 behind. They won that last game on the road and this Cleveland crowd were disappointingly quiet in their Game 4 defeat to the Warriors in this Arena. If Golden State can get off to a hot shooting start, as they did in Game 4 and eventually found their groove in Game 5, they can take the crowd out of this. For all of James' special play, he has been restricted to under 40% from the field as the Warriors have contested everything and they will allow the King to have his numbers as long as none of his subjects can join him in having a big game. The Warriors just look like they have found a comfort level in this series and they have begun to impose their tempo on proceedings as well as found their open shots swishing through the net. After sticking with them through this series, I will be looking for one more big game for the Warriors as they make this city wait a little longer for a Champion.
MY PICKS: 04/06 Golden State Warriors - 6 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)
07/06 Golden State Warriors - 8 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit) 09/06 Golden State Warriors - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit) 11/06 Golden State Warriors - 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit) 14/06 Golden State Warriors - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit) 16/06 Golden State Warriors - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit) Finals Update: 4-2, + 1.68 Units
Conference Finals Final: 2-7, - 5.18 Units
Semi Final Final: 11-12, - 1.82 Units First Round Final: 18-14, + 2.73 Units April Final: 12-11-2, + 0.32 Units March Final: 14-15-3, - 2.01 Units February Final: 11-16-1, - 5.70 Units January Final: 18-10, + 6.67 Units December Final: 3-6, - 3.31 Units November Final: 14-11, + 1.70 Units October Final: 2-4, - 2 Units Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units |
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