Chile have looked the most impressive of the teams making it through to the last eight, but they were also in a Group where their quality could be shown off. I would still be a little concerned with the manner of the goals conceded to Mexico in the 3-3 draw the hosts had against them, although Chile are in the weaker half of the draw and should think they are good enough to at least reach the Final.
Argentina remain the favourites, but narrow wins over Uruguay and Jamaica and a 2-2 draw with Paraguay doesn't exactly inspire confidence. However, Argentina fans will point out the tight wins in the World Cup last summer that took them to the Final, although they potentially have to beat Colombia, Brazil and Chile to win this tournament which is going to be far from easy.
I do have to say it is far from guaranteed that Brazil make the Semi Final as they have to take on a Paraguay team that beat them in the Quarter Final four years ago and who are unbeaten in the Copa America this year despite facing Argentina and Uruguay in the Group.
There won't be too many people rushing to back the likes of Bolivia and Peru to win the tournament, but Paraguay made the Final four years ago and you just never know in the Knock Out Stage of any competition.
Wednesday 24th June: Chile v Uruguay
The hosts have qualified out of Group A in a fashion that the fans would have expected, but the big story remains off the pitch surrounding Arturo Vidal and the drink-driving accident he had last week. However, the Chile national team have made it clear that they are going to stick by Vidal and the whole team responded with a resounding 5-0 win over Bolivia in their final Group game to top Group A.That meant they were going to take on one of the teams that finished in third place in their Group, although I don't think many would have picked Uruguay to be one of those teams. After beating Jamaica 1-0, Uruguay were beaten by Argentina and could not hold on to a lead against Paraguay in a game where they had to settle for a point and finishing behind those two nations.
Knowing they were going to be without the services of Luis Suarez was always going to give Uruguay a problem in this tournament, but it is the changing of the guard in other areas of the squad that hasn't helped them. Uruguay might have won this tournament four years ago but the expectation wasn't there for them to do the same this time around as they rebuild a squad that will be able to make the World Cup in Russia in 2018.
Replacing the Suarez goal output was another difficulty Uruguay had to resolve as he is such an integral part of the set up, while the Barcelona forward is also someone that can create space for others. It is little surprise that Uruguay have only scored twice in the Copa America in their opening three games without him and they have not shown a consistent attacking threat.
You have to feel a consistent attacking threat is the only way Chile are going to be stopped at their own tournament as they look to win the Copa America for the first time. They are in the weaker half of the draw with the likes of Argentina, Colombia and Brazil all in the other half and Chile have scored plenty of goals in the Group Stage to suggest they will make the Final. Chile scored at least twice in each of their games in the Group, although Uruguay is a much tougher defensive unit than they have faced.
Diego Godin will return to the starting eleven to strengthen Uruguay at the back, while Uruguay have not lost to Chile in their last four games at the Copa America. In fact Uruguay have lost just 2 of their last 6 visits to Chile and won a friendly here 1-2 last November so they won't be intimidated by the atmosphere in the Quarter Final.
With the recent success Uruguay have had here, it does make Chile look short in the market to win. All of the pressure is on the hosts to win the tournament and that also makes them a dangerous pick against a team that still has a lot of experience like Uruguay.
While Uruguay haven't set the world alight with their attacking football in the Group, I do think the layers are taking a chance with the odds against quote for at least three goals being shared. That happened in their friendly here last November, while Chile have scored plenty of goals in the Group and not always looked secure at the back despite two clean sheets.
It is a Knock Out tie too so spaces could potentially open up if one team is chasing the game and I think both teams will score in this one, although I just favour the hosts to have the edge.
Thursday 25th June: Bolivia v Peru
There wouldn't be too many hands raised if you asked for a show of hands of people who thought Peru would finish above Colombia in Group C... That number would be reduced significantly if asking for those who also thought Bolivia were going to make it into the Quarter Finals of the Copa America for the first time since reaching the Final in 1997.I mean how could anyone possibly back a Bolivia side that hadn't won a game at this tournament since hosting the event in 1997? However, they broke that sequence with an incredible 3-2 win over Ecuador having gone 3-0 up by half time and essentially hanging on towards the end of the game, but that was the win that put Bolivia into the Quarter Final at the expense of Mexico and Ecuador.
Some may have looked at the 5-0 defeat at the hands of Chile as Bolivia's bubble being burst at the Copa America, but they decided to make changes to their team in that one having already qualified for the Quarter Finals. Now this Bolivia team should have more of a feel of that which earned four points from their first couple of Group games, although the expectation is that their tournament comes to an end here.
Peru have looked much stronger than Bolivia having barely been beaten by Brazil thanks to an injury time goal in their first game at the Copa America. They followed that up by beating Venezuela, the result which ultimately proved decisive for them, before Peru earned a goalless draw with Colombia to finish above the latter in second place in Group C.
They have played well but two goals from their first three games has to be a worry, particularly the lack of composure shown against Venezuela despite having a man advantage for 70 minutes of that game. Peru have also won just 2 of their last 7 games so it does look a very short price having them at odds on to win this game, especially when you add the recent head to head with Bolivia.
Of course Bolivia have only won 2 of their last 19 games heading into this Quarter Final, but they have lost just 2 of their last 6 matches. The games with Peru have been tight in recent years and the last four have all ended in draws including in both World Cup Qualifiers played a couple of years ago.
The last two times they have played at the Copa America have also both ended in draws and Bolivia showed enough in their first two games of this tournament to think this will be far from easy for Peru. One problem for Bolivia would be if they end up chasing this game as I am not sure they have enough to contain Peru if they fall behind and whether they have enough attacking threat to get back into the match.
However, this has the makings of a game that might see both teams having to settle for the penalty shoot out to decide matters. The pressure of expectation on Peru might give them an issue and they don't look like a team that will score a lot of goals, while the recent head to head suggests this will be a much closer contest than the layers believe.
Friday 26th June: Argentina v Colombia
Out of the four Quarter Finals, this looks to be the 'biggest' as two of the top four favourites to win the Copa America meet earlier than expected. Argentina won Group B as expected, but Colombia were surprisingly one of the best third place finishers and that meant they had to be paired with the favourites in this Quarter Final.It hasn't been the free-flowing tournament that Argentina fans might have expected from their side, but they remain on course to win their first major international tournament in over twenty years. After coming so close to winning the World Cup last summer, Argentina came into the Copa America tournament as the big favourites and wins over Uruguay and Jamaica helped them top the Group.
Both of those wins came by the same 1-0 scoreline, but Argentina's most disappointing result was the 2-2 draw with Paraguay as they allowed a 2-0 lead to slip in their opening game.
Lionel Messi has yet to really spark at the tournament, but Sergio Aguero has scored a couple of goals and is expected back in the starting line up having missed the game with Jamaica as a precaution. His replacement Gonzalo Higuain scored the winner in that game, but Argentina have to up their performance against a quality team like Colombia who have perhaps underachieved to this point.
That has shown up in the fact they have beaten Brazil, but Colombia could only manage a goalless draw with Peru which meant they had to finish in third place behind those two nations. Colombia were beaten 0-1 by Venezuela in their first game at the Copa America and they are looking to surpass the Quarter Final at the tournament for the first time since 2004.
Some of the criticism of Colombia has been the lack of goals despite players like Radamel Falcao, James Rodriguez and Jackson Martinez to call upon. One goal in three games is a disappointment, but Colombia may point out that they have only conceded one goal in those games too and will feel they can blunt what looks a very good forward line for Argentina.
It does look like a match that will be closely contested as both teams have looked to make sure they are defensively sound, but have perhaps not been as fluent in the forward areas as they would have liked. Argentina have looked the more threatening on a consistent basis through the tournament, but defensively they have looked more vulnerable too which makes this an intriguing contest.
There is no surprise that games between Argentina and Colombia have been so close in recent years and 2 of the last 3 have ended in goalless draws. That includes their meeting four years ago at the last Copa America which occurred in the Group Stage and penalties is a distinct possibility in this match.
I don't imagine there will be too many goals in the game as both teams have been more focused defensively and neither Argentina or Colombia will want to risk being exposed at the back against the vaunted attacks in front of them. I do give the edge to Argentina over the ninety minutes, but I think it is incredibly tight and this match might need penalties to decide it.
Argentina were beaten at this stage on penalties four years ago, but they have a strong record generally in penalty shoot-out matches and a small interest on them winning this on in a shoot out looks warranted.
Saturday 27th June: Brazil v Paraguay
The last time Brazil had to make do without Neymar at a major international tournament saw them embarrassed at the hands of Germany and the Netherlands, but they have decided to accept the suspension that was handed out to their captain and talisman. That means Brazil will have to win the Copa America without the services of Neymar as they get set to take on Paraguay in the Quarter Final of this competition for the second consecutive tournament.Four years ago it was Paraguay who managed to come through the Quarter Final on a penalty shoot out after a goalless draw and they will be confident they can beat Brazil for the second tournament in a row. While Paraguay struggled in the World Cup Qualifiers, they have looked a strong team at the Copa America as they came out of a Group containing Argentina, Uruguay and Jamaica unbeaten.
The side found themselves 2-0 down to Argentina in the first game, but showed the heart and character Paraguay have by coming back for the 2-2 draw. The 1-0 win over Jamaica was harder work than they would have perhaps expected, but the 1-1 draw with Uruguay was enough for them to finish above Uruguay in Group B.
After seeing both Peru and Venezuela give Brazil some problems in the 2-1 wins for the latter, Paraguay won't be coming into this match with an inferior complex. Brazil were also beaten 0-1 by Colombia and they don't have the same look of a team that had won 10 friendlies in a row since going out of the World Cup last summer.
Whether that is down to the expectation on their shoulders or whether Brazil are simply still scarred by their last tournament experience is hard to judge, but Dunga is clearly struggling to get the best out of them in Chile. Now they are without Neymar, Brazil simply don't seem to have the same attacking threat and a team like Paraguay have shown they can cope with the best South America has to offer in their Group performances.
Despite the performances, Paraguay haven't done a lot of winning and I think it will be tough for them to win this one in ninety minutes. However, they have proven tough to beat in recent matches and have drawn 4 of their last 6 including those two games with Argentina and Uruguay.
It would be a bit of a surprise if Paraguay don't make sure they are tough to beat in this one too and hope to nick a goal, which they have managed in every game in the Group. However, I think they focus on trying to blunt the Brazilian attack that is missing Neymar and Paraguay won't be concerned about taking their chances on the shoot out after beating Brazil in that manner four years ago.
That was a remarkable shoot out with only 2/7 penalties being converted, but Brazil are unlikely to miss four straight again this time around you would feel. Technically the Brazilian players shouldn't be afraid of a penalty shoot out as they have shown through their history, while the Under 20 team won both penalty shoot outs at the Under 20 World Cup earlier this month.
Pressure does a funny thing though so it won't be guaranteed that Brazil can win what is often described as a 'lottery', but this could easily be the third penalty shoot out of the Quarter Finals.
MY PICKS: 24/06 Chile-Uruguay Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Coral (2 Units)
25/06 Bolivia-Peru Draw @ 3.40 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
26/06 Argentina to Win on Penalties @ 6.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
27/06 Brazil to Win on Penalties @ 6.50 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Quarter Final Update: 1-3, + 1 Units (5 Units Staked, + 20% Yield)
Group Stage Final: 5-12, - 6.20 Units (25 Units Staked, - 24.80% Yield)
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