Euro 2016 Qualifiers Picks 2015 (June 12-14)

The final senior European football of the season takes place this weekend as another round of Euro 2016 Qualifiers takes place and the tournament of next summer will begin to take place. It is still too early for teams to confirm their places at the European Championship in France, but this could be a pivotal round of games for teams as they look to get themselves into a position to confirm their places in France later in the year.

There are some big nations who are desperate to start to close the gap in their Groups, most notably the Netherlands, while the 'Home Nations' like Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland could go a long way to getting themselves in a position to reach a major international tournament if they can win this weekend.

All three have very difficult games, but all have begun well enough to think they can challenge for top two positions in their Group and, at the very worst, at least a Play Off place.

England are less insecure than those three teams I mentioned and the Republic of Ireland, but they have a chance to all but book their tickets to France if they can win in Slovenia this weekend.

After this round of games, the next thing to look forward to from a personal perspective has to be the June 17th release of the Premier League fixtures for next season.


Wales v Belgium Pick: When you are placed in Pot 4 for the European Championship Qualifiers, the expectation that you will actually qualify for the tournament, even an expanded one, is not very high. But that wasn't the case for Wales who were pleased with their Group and they have had a positive first half of the qualifiers to think they can break their long run of failing to attend a major international tournament.

The win in Israel in the last round of qualifiers has given Wales a great chance to qualify for France 2016 automatically, but there is still work to be done and they can't look too far ahead. They play Belgium this weekend and also still have to face Bosnia and Herzegovina away from home, so Wales are far from guaranteed from booking their hotels for next summer.

Belgium are just behind Wales on goal difference in the Group, but there has to be a lot more confidence in their camp as this is arguably the toughest game they have left to play. The quality in the Belgium team was evident in the manner they beat France away from home in a friendly last week and while the FIFA Ranking of Number 2 looks high, Belgium are a definite threat to win the European Championship.

They have won 6 of their last 7 away qualifiers and while Wales have played well, they did lose 3 of their 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers. Marouane Fellaini is missing as is Vincent Kompany, but Belgium are the better team and Eden Hazard certainly finished the season with more confidence than Gareth Bale.

Those two are the difference makers in this match- Bale has picked up his form for Wales compared with performances for Real Madrid, but Belgium seem to have more match winners and can win this game.


Armenia v Portugal Pick: This is far from a straight forward game for Portugal who have been a little vulnerable during recent qualifiers even though they have won 3 straight games in the Group to move to the top of the section. However, they needed a late goal to beat Denmark and needed second half strikes to get past Serbia and Armenia at home in narrow wins.

You also have to respect Armenia for some of their performances in the qualifiers, even if they have not really threatened to actually make a major international tournament. They did lose 4 of 5 at home in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Armenia only lost 1 of 5 in the last Euro Qualifiers and have already held Serbia 1-1 here in this campaign.

Armenia did suffer a thumping home defeat to France in a recent friendly at home though and I do wonder if they have enough in the final third to trouble a Portugal back line that had been playing well before the stunning 0-2 home loss to Cape Verde Islands. Prior to that result, Portugal had conceded only 1 goal in 4 games, including against the likes of Denmark and Argentina, and they are likely to use that as a foundation for success in this latest round of qualifying games.

With Cristiano Ronaldo in the starting line up, Portugal will always expect they will find a way to score a goal or two, but it has been the defensive performances that have sparked their move up the Group standings.

I expect Portugal will have to ride their fortunes at some point in this match, but they should have enough to find a breakthrough and come through with a win thanks to a clean sheet.


Poland v Georgia Pick: After beating Germany 2-0 at home in the early stages of this Qualifying campaign, Poland know that will all be for naught if they don't complete the double over Georgia. They still have tough away games in Germany and Scotland to play and Poland also host the rugged Republic of Ireland team so dropping points against one of the two weakest teams in the section, at home no less, will be a blow to their chances of finishing in the top two positions.

Finishing there means an automatic berth at the next European Championship in France and Poland have already convincingly beaten Georgia away from home in the section as they won 0-4 in Tbilisi in November.

Georgia simply don't travel that well away from home and that was shown in comfortable losses in Belarus, France and Spain during the last World Cup Qualifiers, while Scotland should have won by far more than a 1-0 scoreline suggested in their game earlier in the Group. They have also been beaten comfortably in the Republic of Ireland in a friendly while narrow losses at Kazakhstan and the UAE doesn't exactly inspire confidence.

The home fans might have to be patient because there is little doubt that Georgia will come here with a defensive mentality and hope to frustrate Poland into making mistakes. After all this is a Poland team that won just 2 of 5 home games in the last World Cup Qualifiers, although both of those came against teams of the Georgia level, especially the win over Moldova.

If they don't lose their composure, Poland should find a way to break down Georgia in this one too and I do think they win this one with something to spare. Goal difference could be important in such a tight Group to decide places so Poland should put in a strong effort to win with that something to spare and I will back them to win by at least two goals.


Denmark v Serbia Pick: It is already looking like a big task for Serbia to turn around their form in their European Championship Qualifying Group and a defeat on Saturday will effectively end their hopes of an automatic place in France. The third spot might not be beyond them at that point, but Serbia will be desperate to reverse their 1-3 home loss to Denmark as they travel to Copenhagen.

On the other hand, Denmark will look at their next three games a real chance to confirm their spot in one of the top two places in the Group which will send them to yet another major international tournament. Of course Denmark's most famous international moment came in the European Championships back in 1992 when they were a late entree before going on to win that tournament.

One disappointment for Denmark has been winning just 2 of their last 7 home qualifiers and they were undone by a late Cristiano Ronaldo goal in a home defeat to Portugal earlier in the Group. That poor home form cost them the chance to earn a place at the World Cup last summer, but Denmark can take confidence from Serbia's struggles away from home where they have won 1 of their last 7 qualifiers and been beaten 4 times.

And while Denmark haven't produced the goods in the qualifiers, they have won 6 of their last 8 home games and their 1-3 win in Serbia earlier in the Group will give them the confidence they can earn another vital three points.

The match will likely be a tight one, but Denmark's additional confidence from recent results at home should help them find a way to a narrow win.


Slovenia v England Pick: For all the talk coming out of the England camp about how effective they have been going forward, it was the poor reaction to the goalless draw in the Republic of Ireland that has some of the players fired up. Joe Hart claimed no one 'would say it to (my) face' which seems an incredible reaction to what was universally accepted as a terrible game of football.

People like Hart do make me laugh though- I'm not sure what kind of reaction he was expecting after fans paid out plenty of hard earned cash for a really poor game of football, but the concentration has to move to the Slovenia game as England look for another three points in the Group.

Aside from the Switzerland game, this is clearly the toughest game that England have to negotiate, but they are already in a strong position in the Group and the pressure is not as high as it might have been. England won't want to give up their position in the Group and lose to a potential rival for one of the top two positions, but they have to play better than they did last week.

Slovenia are no pushovers at home with 5 wins in their last 6 Qualifiers in front of their own fans and they did beat Switzerland here to get into the position they are behind England. They also had the lead at Wembley Stadium earlier in the Qualifiers before succumbing to a 3-1 defeat and England at odds on looks very short.

A draw wouldn't be the worst result for England as it would keep them 6 points clear of Slovenia and it has to be remembered England drew 3 of their 5 away World Cup Qualifiers. The win in Switzerland was a strong result, but this game comes at the end of a long season for England and tiredness might be a factor.

The draw wouldn't be an awful result for Slovenia either knowing Switzerland still have to visit England. The home team have won plenty of qualifiers at home in recent years, but I think the draw is a lively player in this one and worth a small interest.


Belarus v Spain Pick: The disaster of the last World Cup campaign had many thinking Spain were perhaps going to have to take a step back in their ability to win the major tournaments as they transitioned to a new set of players to replace a 'Golden Generation' who won the World Cup in 2010 and two European Championships around that victory.

It might be part of the reason that Spain have struggled to find their consistency since returning from Brazil as they have won 5 and lost 4 of 9 games played and struggled to see off Costa Rica in their final friendly ahead of this game. However, Spain have been very strong on their travels in the qualifiers over the last three campaigns and have won 15 of 16 away qualifiers with the sole exception being that surprise defeat in Slovakia.

And for all the talk of inconsistency, it has to be said that Spain have only lost to the highest of quality outside of the defeat to Slovakia as the other three losses have come to France (away), Germany (home) and the Netherlands (away).

Suffice to say that Belarus are not exactly in that level of competition and they have shown they can't really match up to the best teams with comfortable home losses to Ukraine and Slovakia in the Group already. Both Spain and France scored four goals here in the World Cup Qualifiers and both Ukraine and Slovakia won by a two goal margin.

I can't expect Belarus to roll over as both the Ukraine and Slovakia needed to score twice in the last ten minutes to put a positive slant on their scorelines, but Spain are a better team than both. Sometimes Spain can be guilty of overplaying, but they can't afford to drop silly points and I expect the players can have one more big effort before getting a well deserved summer break.


Lithuania v Switzerland Pick: Do you know one team I can't quite get my head around? Switzerland... This is a team that has become a regular nation at major international tournaments, usually qualifying fairly easily, but every time I watch them play I am underwhelmed and unsure as to how they are so successful.

This time around it has been far from a breeze for the Swiss as they are currently 3rd in the Group thanks to their head to head record with Slovenia and 6 points behind England. With a home game against Slovenia to come, Switzerland will be confident they can outpoint them in the remaining five games and that means they have to visit Lithuania and leave with the three points.

They are now unbeaten in 6 games after back to back losses to England and Slovenia to open the Group and Switzerland have won 4 of those games. Switzerland are comfortable away from home as they have won 5 of their last 7 away qualifiers over the last two campaigns and Lithuania have looked overmatched by the top three teams in the Group.

Wins over Estonia and San Marino gave Lithuania false hope that they could potentially compete for a top three spot in the Group, but they have lost to Slovenia, Switzerland and England since then and failed to score in any of those games. Granted they only lost 2 of 5 home games in the World Cup Qualifiers, but Lithuania have already been dismissed by Slovenia in a 0-2 home defeat and it is hard to see Switzerland not being able to match that score having crushed them 4-0 at home.

It will still be a difficult game for Switzerland if they are not focused, but they know they can start getting back into position to qualify for France 2016 without the Play Offs if they win this game and I expect them to do so by a similar margin to Slovenia.


Slovakia v FYR Macedonia Pick: I am sure that both Spain and Ukraine would have been looking at their defeats to Slovakia and wondering whether the latter could maintain their form and take away one of the top two qualifying spots from this Group. Those wins came in September and have sparked Slovakia to win all 5 games played in the Group and all 8 games played since September.

Slovakia have not allowed the wins over Ukraine and Spain get to their heads and they have shown some real determination to win away games at Belarus and Macedonia which were troublesome on paper. Both came comfortably and Slovakia have been very good at home with 6 straight wins here and it would be a real surprise if they don't win this one too.

This is a team that knows they can get through to France 2016 if they can win their remaining home games and even a defeat in Spain in September won't be a hindrance to them. Slovakia might have to be patient against Macedonia who will come here to make life difficult for them, but the latter have not been a good travelling team in qualifiers and it is hard to make a case for them.

One case might be that Macedonia only lost 1-0 in Ukraine and Belgium were only 1-0 winners against them in the World Cup Qualifiers a couple of years ago. That might see them frustrate Slovakia, but the latter have only failed to score less than 2 goals in 2 of their last 6 home games and I think it might be a big ask for Macedonia to stay within the Asian Handicap.

In amongst those tight losses, Macedonia have conceded five in Spain and Serbia and Slovakia should be able to find a win by a couple of goals in this one.

MY PICKS: Belgium @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Portugal Win to Nil @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)
Poland - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denmark @ 2.25 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Slovenia-England Draw @ 3.60 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Spain - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Slovakia - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)