French Open Day 11 Picks 2015 (June 3rd)

If the first Quarter Finals are anything to go by, the French Open last eight in both men's and women's draws could produce some of the best tennis we have seen through the entire 2015 season. The first four Quarter Finals produced three upsets, although one was only a marginal upset, and there was plenty of drama on show during the days play.

Now on Day 11 of the tournament, we have the biggest match of the event that we had all been waiting for as Novak Djokovic takes on Rafael Nadal in the second match on the main court. Most will agree that the winner of that event will be a big favourite to go all the way at the French Open, while the second Quarter Final of the day between Andy Murray and David Ferrer could also be a very intriguing match.

There are also two big favourites in the two women's Quarter Finals which are to be played first on Wednesday.


Serena Williams - 6.5 games v Sara Errani: This has been a disappointing ten days for Serena Williams at the French Open as she has struggled with her fitness and form, but the fact that she is still in the Quarter Final should worry others more than her. Serena Williams has admitted that she doesn't care if she needs to play the full nine sets to win the title, but you have to feel the American needs to begin producing her best tennis to make life that much easier.

The match up with Sara Errani should be right up Williams' street, but the caution comes from a Fed Cup match between these players earlier this season that needed to go the distance. Williams managed to come out on top in that one to make it eight in a row against the Italian, but she was a set down in that match and the second set was only decided on a tie-breaker.

Previously Williams had battered Errani in back to back matches on the clay including losing just one game in the Semi Final at the French Open in 2013. The match up gives Williams every chance to dominate every point with her power and Errani can't even rely on a serve that sits up and is begging opponents to put it away.

The biggest question is whether Serena Williams can turn around her struggles over the last week? I think she should have every chance to do that in this match, but there will be bigger challenges ahead even if she comes through with a dominant 64, 61 win from this one.


Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 games v Alison Van Uytvanck: This has been a really big tournament for Alison Van Uytvanck who has the pressure of trying to fill the boots of players of the level of Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin. Being from Belgium means there is nothing Van Uytvanck can do about the external pressure that will be put on her, although not many would have predicted a run to the Quarter Final.

It has been a surprise to most as Van Uytvanck has rarely reached this level of performance on the main Tour, but her performances have suggested there is more to come from her.

Timea Bacsinszky is another player who might have surprised with her run as it was expected that her better performances would come on the faster surfaces. However, Bacsinszky has shown her capability on the surface with the impressive breakdown of the Petra Kvitova game after losing the first set 62 and it has been a tournament full of impressive performances from her.

This is easily the best performance of both players at Grand Slam level so nerves could play a huge part and who can handle those better. The feeling I have is that Bacsinszy will perhaps deal with that better having come back to the Tour after time away from tennis and that will make her more experienced to deal with the pressure.

Bacsinszky has been playing some really good stuff this week too and I like her to come through with a 64, 62 win.


Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This is the match that everyone would have been looking forward to when the draw was made a little under two weeks ago and it looks like the winner of the French Open will come from the winner of this Quarter Final.

It is Rafael Nadal's 29th birthday as he looks to hold back the Novak Djokovic tide at the French Open for the seventh time overall and the fourth year in a row. This is clearly the earliest that they have met over the last three years and Nadal has found a way to come through despite perhaps going into the French Open with some chinks in the armour.

Those look bigger than ever ahead of this Quarter Final despite the fact that Rafael Nadal has performed well over the first four Rounds of the tournament compared with the form he had coming into the event in Paris. The surprisingly tense Fourth Round win over Jack Sock once Nadal got into a strong position shows that he is still not completely convinced of his form and Novak Djokovic is the man to take advantage.

Djokovic has been calm and controlled through his first four matches and looks like a player who has destiny behind him to fulfil what has been a long dream. He is playing very well and knows exactly what to expect from Nadal although there is pressure on the World Number 1 who has never beaten the Spaniard at this Grand Slam.

I can imagine this Quarter Final will be tense at times, but Djokovic has all the tools needed to become just the second man to beat Nadal at Roland Garros. My heart is hoping for Nadal to win and complete his tenth title at the French Open, but my head says the World Number 1 is now in the perfect spot to come through with a 63, 63, 46, 64 win.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v David Ferrer: Andy Murray might have a 9-6 head to head record against David Ferrer, but he has never beaten the Spaniard on a clay court and tries to reverse a 0-4 record against him on this surface. They meet for the first time at the French Open since 2012 when Ferrer was a four set winner at this stage of the tournament, but I think things will be different this time around.

Anyone who backed the outright picks at the start of the tournament will already be in a strong position backing David Ferrer at a bigger price to win this Quarter than what is offered for him to beat Murray in this Quarter Final. He has played well enough for the most part over the tournament to think he will present Murray a big challenge, but Andy Murray has never been more confident on this surface as he looks to continue his strong winning run.

Ferrer will make Murray work very hard throughout this match, but there have been signs that he is past his best with some disappointing losses over the European clay court season. The defeats to Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, in competitive matches, are nothing to complain about, but Ferrer's comfortable losses to Pablo Andujar and Kei Nishikori are more disappointing.

Andy Murray has played up to that kind of level to work Ferrer around and wear him down over four sets. He has to serve better than he has in the last couple of Rounds to make life easier, but that suggests to me that Ferrer can take a set on current form.

The way Ferrer played against Simone Bolelli in the middle of that Third Round match will be a concern and I think Murray is capable of winning one set by a wide margin. In a four set win, Murray should have enough to cover this spread barring a really poor set, but I think he will be focused to break his duck against David Ferrer on a clay court.

MY PICKS: Serena Williams - 6.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Timea Bacsinszky - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 39-31, + 11.36 Units (137 Units Staked, + 8.29% Yield)