Tennis Picks 2015 (June 19th)

It was one of those days that I haven't had for a while, but every pick went down the toilet on Thursday, some in more unfortunate ways than others to put it frankly.

There were some bad picks, but bad luck on top of that just ruined what had looked to be a really poor week anyway.


We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the various tournaments being played on grass this week, but I am not sure the organisers of the event in Queens aren't quietly disappointed that their draw has been decimated. Instead of Andy Murray v Grigor Dimitrov and Stan Wawrinka v Rafael Nadal we get to see Murray take on Gilles Muller and Guillermo Garcia-Lopez take on Kevin Anderson.

That is obviously no disrespect to the players taking the places of those Seeded to get to this stage, but when Queens are charging the prices that they are, they have to feel they need to offer the best possible product on the court. I'm not sure the draw this week has provided that for much of the week, but Queens remains a top grass court tournament and I think players will prepare for its new slot in the calendar better next year than they perhaps did this season.


There are still some big names out there with the likes of Murray, Milos Raonic, Roger Federer, Kei Nishikori, Tomas Berdych, Simona Halep, Carla Suarez Navarro and Angelique Kerber all top ten players in the World Rankings who are still in action as the Quarter Finals are all played on Friday.

It looks like the weather won't be a factor on Friday, although London and Birmingham are supposed to be very cloudy compared to the recent days at those events. It is supposed to rain in the afternoon in Halle, but they have a roof at that tournament which means the tennis won't be disrupted and can remain on schedule.


Milos Raonic - 2.5 games v Gilles Simon: I was a little unsure as to how Milos Raonic would react to his lay off from the Tour, but he has looked comfortable for the most part in London this week. The first match against James Ward saw him struggling for a set and a half, but Raonic looked very good against Richard Gasquet who is a very good grass court player.

Now he takes on another Frenchman as Gilles Simon stands in the way of a Semi Final appearance in his second grass court tournament in a row following his Wimbledon exploits last year. As I said earlier in the week, I am not convinced Raonic is that comfortable on grass, but the wins over Ward and Gasquet are strong wins to give him confidence.

With the serve working effectively, Raonic can keep Simon under scoreboard pressure and he will always get some kind of chance to break serve with the way Simon plays. The movement is an issue as Simon looks to get as many balls back in play as possible which can lead to mistakes from Raonic, but the power of the Canadian will pose plenty of problems for Simon if he is being allowed to tee off on his shots.

Thanasi Kokkinakis made a lot of mistakes in his defeat to Simon earlier this week, but Raonic looks more capable of turning those chances into break points and breaking through with a 64, 75 kind of win.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Gilles Muller: It was a surprising win for Gilles Muller over Grigor Dimitrov, one that I wasn't expecting him to produce and I do think it may say more about where Dimitrov is with his game at this moment in time than Muller. Take nothing away from the quality of serving that Muller produced in the win over Dimitrov, but Andy Murray's anticipation on the return is far better than the Bulgarian and I expect the British Number 1 to put more pressure on Muller than Dimitrov did.

Murray will change his position slightly, is happy to bounce on a serve once he gets a read on it and has the fortune of playing a lefty on Thursday which should prepare him for what he will see. Beating Fernando Verdasco might not have the same impact as a few years ago, but Murray had to come through some tough moments which will prepare him effectively for the bigger prizes coming up.

He will have to serve well to stop Muller getting any encouragement to cause another shock, while Murray's second serve looks a shot that Muller will look to aggressively attack. I think Murray will be smart enough to perhaps take something off the first serve and hurt Muller that way rather than allowing him to see too many second serves, but that has been the biggest issue for the Number 1 Seed this week.

Of course Muller could serve exceptionally well and prevent Murray from getting any joy in this match, but I think Murray has the return game to force some chances in this Quarter Final. I think he will be smarter than Dimitrov on the return when it comes to the big points by using his slice and variation to give Muller something else to think about and will break him down at least once in each set. That should be enough for Murray to record yet another 64, 75 win this week.


Tomas Berdych - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: It is something of a surprise that Tomas Berdych still has a losing record against Ivo Karlovic heading into their eighth meeting, but I can imagine the big serve Karlovic possesses ends up frustrating Berdych.

The grass courts should be the kind of surface that Karlovic loves to perform on and he has had a couple of solid wins under his belt this week. If he serves as well as he can, Berdych seems to feel the pressure of trying to stay ahead of Karlovic on the scoreboard which leads to mistakes that he simply should not be making against a limited returner.

It isn't like Karlovic is a huge player off the ground in the extended rallies, but he is capable of slicing the ball very deep into the court and attacking the net. His frame means it is hard to pass Karlovic once he gets up there, but Berdych has also played well this week and looks set to equal up their head to head.

Berdych has to accept that there will be games when he is unable to get into the Karlovic service, but he has shown he has the range to get enough balls back to force rallies which he should mean more often than not. If he can come through what is likely to be a first set tie-breaker, Berdych can win this 76, 64 and move into the Semi Final.


Roger Federer - 4.5 games v Florian Mayer: I am not sure what was wrong with Roger Federer in his Second Round win over Ernests Gulbis, but I have rarely seen him so vocal and frustrated in a match he was comfortably WINNING!

He was making some poor mistakes which Federer will know he needs to clean up if he is going to win the tournament in Halle as well as going deep into the draw at Wimbledon, but it was a fairly strong performance all in all. He will be tested by Florian Mayer in this Quarter Final, although the German has not played a lot of tennis of late and who hasn't been serving as well as he would like heading into a match of this size.

They have played some close matches in the past, the last two in particularly being very competitive including here in Halle in 2012, but Mayer's recent return from injury might play against him.

Mayer does have a lot of variation which makes him a threat on grass, while he is also very comfortable at the net and this could be an old fashioned match as Federer will also like to put things away at the net. I would be concerned with the amount of chances Steve Johnson fashioned on the Mayer serve in the last match if I was in the team of the latter and he was also given a bagel by Jan-Lennard Struff in the First Round.

I have mentioned that Federer has been a little loose on the break point chances that have come his way and he played the big points a little poorly against Gulbis. He'll have to tighten up on that, but Mayer's lack of match fitness might be an issue too far for him against an opponent of this quality and Federer can come through 63, 64.


Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 games v Daniela Hantuchova: Daniela Hantuchova has always been very comfortable on the grass courts and she has produced some of her best performances on this surface in her career. However, it does feel like the career his winding down these days for the Slovakian and she is taking on an opponent in Sabine Lisicki who is very comfortable on the grass too.

The grass just seems to match up very well for what Lisicki tries to do on the court and I am going to back her despite her failure to cover the spread on Thursday. One poor service game and an inability to convert a 0-40 situation on the Magdalena Rybarikova serve in the second set meant Lisicki had to settle for a 76, 64 scoreline, rather than the 64, 63 or 76, 62 score it looked like she should have earned.

It has been a very good week for Hantuchova who had come into the tournament having lost 8/9 matches, but this is clearly the biggest test she would have faced in Birmingham. Her serving was just good enough to beat Michelle Larcher De Brito in the Third Round, but Hantuchova did give her opponent a chance to get into those service games and Lisicki is capable of punishing her.

As long as Lisicki doesn't miss the chances that do come her way as she did in her own Third Round match, I think she wins this 64, 63.

MY PICKS: Milos Raonic - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Sabine Lisicki - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-13, - 10.96 Units (42 Units Staked, - 26.10% Yield)