Tennis Picks 2015 (June 25th)

We are now just a couple of days away from the Wimbledon draw and that means the tournaments in Eastbourne and Nottingham have reached the Quarter Final stage. Both have been interesting tournaments, but there have been a bunch of strange results this week as players have perhaps begun to look ahead to performing at the next Grand Slam of the season.

However, the remaining sixteen players left in Eastbourne and Nottingham must now be looking at their chance to win a title so the expectation is that the focus is a lot clearer in the remaining three days to give the winner some momentum to take into Wimbledon.


Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 games v Simone Bolelli: Simone Bolelli had to dig deep to come through his Third Round match against Adrian Mannarino and he has beaten Marcos Baghdatis in their two previous matches. That includes a thumping in the First Round of the Masters in Miami, but I think the grass courts can allow Baghdatis to come through with his first win over the Italian.

It hasn't been a great grass court season for Baghdatis even if the surface should be one the Cypriot favours, but he is playing with more confidence this week. There is no doubting that Baghdatis is a player that has to be feeling good about himself if he is going to put together wins and I think that confidence can help him even if Bolelli won their last match comfortably.

Bolelli did have a very good win over Adrian Mannarino after struggling for a set and a half to get into the match, but he has to be more consistent behind his serve. Hr has played some very solid tennis this week and Bolelli will be a real threat if he can start to read the Baghdatis second serve, a shot he might see far more often than Baghdatis would like.

If Baghdatis is able to look after the serve, I think he has played effectively off the ground to think he can find a way to create break point chances. The first set could be incredibly tight, but I think Baghdatis finds his way to a 76, 64 win.


Gilles Simon - 1.5 games v Sam Querrey: I was interested to see how Gilles Simon would react to the eighth longest three set match in ATP history in his win over Marcel Granollers, but he proved effective with a straight sets win over Joao Sousa.

The Frenchman has admitted that he is very pleased with his form going into Wimbledon, but he won't want it to end here against the dangerous Sam Querrey who is yet to drop a set this week.

The big serve of Querrey is a huge weapon on the grass courts, but Simon has a real ability to get plenty of balls back in play and showed he can frustrate big servers in his win over Milos Raonic at Queens last week. Simon couldn't handle the Kevin Anderson performance, but Querrey isn't playing with the same confidence the South African was and I also think the head to head is important to note.

These players might not have met on grass before, but Simon is 4-0 against Querrey including 3 wins on the hard courts. Pablo Cuevas showed that Querrey can be troubled if the rallies are extended and that is a key for Simon who can replicate that but with more confidence on the grass courts than Cuevas had.

It might need three sets to separate these players, but the Frenchman can continue a strong grass court season by reaching the Semi Final here.


Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 games v Yen-Hsun Lu: Both players had an impressive win on Wednesday in their Third Round matches, but I think it will be Alexandr Dolgopolov who is more likely to move into the Semi Final in this match with Yen-Hsun Lu.

The Dolgopolov win over Dominic Thiem was much more expected than Lu's surprisingly comfortable win over Feliciano Lopez, but both men should come into this match with plenty of confidence.

I don't always know what to expect from Dolgopolov and his inconsistency is a big reason he has not maintained his position inside the top 20 in the World Rankings. While Lu won't really move much from the level he provides on the court, Dolgopolov is just as likely to play like a top player as he is to play like someone who has never picked up a tennis racquet in their life before.

Dolgopolov can be a very awkward customer on the court with his slices and flat shots not a common sight for opponents. Lu has struggled to deal with him in the past and I think the Ukrainian can move into the Semi Final after a three set win.


Tsvetana Pironkova + 3.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: There were signs in Nottingham a couple of weeks ago that Agnieszka Radwanska might be turning around a poor 2015 season by her standards. A disappointing defeat in the Semi Final of that tournament might have dented some confidence, but Radwanska has been in fine form this week in Eastbourne too.

The Pole has won two very good matches this week without really breaking a sweat, but I am expecting Tsvetana Pironkova to test her to the fullest.

Radwanska might be a former Finalist at Wimbledon, but she was a fairly consistent player across the board, while Pironkova really has saved some of her best performances for this surface. Wins over Sam Stosur and Dominika Cibulkova in the last couple of Rounds should show the confidence Pironkova has on the grass courts as she had suffered lots of defeats to those two players before this week.

Her power on the grass comes through with the flat shots off the ground fizzing through the court and Pironkova could have a lot of success attacking the Radwanska serve. The Bulgarian might be 2-10 on the head to head with Radwanska, but one of those wins came on grass and the four previous meetings on this surface has seen Pironkova be very competitive three times.

The slight dip in the confidence levels of Radwanska has to be a worry for her fans and Pironkova is playing well enough to keep this very competitive with three tight sets likely to be required to separate the two players.


Belinda Bencic - 3.5 games v Johanna Konta: You'd probably never guess that I think Johanna Konta should be Ranked much higher than her current 146 World Ranking, especially as I am going to go against the British player for a third time this week.

It hasn't been much fun the first two times as Konta continues defying the Ranking and the talent differential to beat players that will be disappointed with their performances. Garbine Muguruza just made too many mistakes when it came down to it on Wednesday, but she did drag Konta into a deep match and fatigue could play a part in this one.

Of course playing in front of her home crowd should provide Konta with a shot of adrenaline to get into this match against Belinda Bencic, a player she beat here in Eastbourne last year. However, this time Bencic comes into the match in much better form and her performances in this grass court season will have raised her confidence.

Bencic is a player that is set to reach the highest level in the women's game and she has had impressive wins over Madison Keys and Eugenie Bouchard, even if the latter had to retire when down in the second set. Her consistency is still being built up, but that is unsurprising for a player that is 18 years old, but Bencic has been performing very well over the last month having one Final under her belt at Hertogenbosch.

I have a lot of respect for the level of tennis that Konta has produced at times, but it is hard to imagine she can keep it up. Even though she beat Bencic convincingly last year, both players might come in with different levels of fitness this time and I think the young Swiss player finds a way to battle through and cover this number of games.


Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: I was very impressed with some of the tennis that Sloane Stephens produced in a convincing win over Heather Watson on Wednesday and there is no doubt that Stephens is enjoying her best portion of the 2015 season. She will have to be on her game again if she is going to make the Semi Final this week as Stephens takes on Lucky Loser Daria Gavrilova who has taken full advantage of her fortunate path into the main draw.

It hasn't been easy for Gavrilova to take advantage of her luck to get into the main draw as she came from behind to beat Camila Giorgi, the Hertogenbosch Champion, and also needed three sets to see off Sara Errani. Sloane Stephens plays much more like Giorgi and will take note of how close she came to beating Gavrilova, although there is plenty of power off the Gavrilova racquet that will trouble the American.

This has already been a productive week for Gavrilova who had previously been just 3-4 on the grass courts, but she has to contain Stephens who made a fast start in her last two matches to take control. Some of the consistency she showed against Watson was impressive, but Gavrilova is likely to fight fire with fire and this looks a big hitting match.

Stephens just has the look of someone who is rediscovering her game and I think that helps make the difference in a good match as she comes through 75, 64.

MY PICKS: Marcos Baghdatis - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Gilles Simon - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Alexandr Dolgopolov - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Tsvetana Pironkova + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Belinda Bencic - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.46 Units (26 Units Staked, - 13.31% Yield)