Miami Heat v San Antonio Spurs
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 3 Pick: It has been a strange couple of games to open the NBA Finals and both teams will feel they have had a chance to be in a much stronger position as we begin the first of three games to be played in Texas.
I predicted the Heat to win this series in six games and that means they will need to win at two of the three games in San Antonio. The short turnaround between Game 2 and this one will favour Miami and I think the Spurs have to make more adjustments if they are to turn the momentum. If the role players contribute as they did in Game 2, I think the Heat can win this one as the underdog.
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 4 Pick: A torrid second half cost the Miami Heat in Game 3, but this is a position where they have really performed their best in the post-season in the 'Big Three' era. The Heat will be in a desperate state after the way they blew Game 3 and I think this could be the first time in the series that LeBron James plays like, well, LeBron James.
Tony Parker is fit to go for the Spurs, but could be slowed by his hamstring issue with only a day of rest between Game 3 and this one. That may slow down their three point barrage and give the Heat a chance to level this series again. It's been a poor Play Offs for the picks and the Finals have confused me, but I like the Heat to tie this at 2-2.
Miami Heat @ San Antonio Spurs Game 5 Pick: This series has been really tough to get a hold of as the team in the 'desperate' spot has managed to win the game they needed to. However, it will be tough for San Antonio to continue that trend if Tony Parker's hamstring gives him trouble at any point, although it seems clear to me that a Miami Heat win in this one will almost certainly see them winning back to back NBA Championships.
The teams have both gone through periods where they have shot effectively and it is with that in mind that I am going to go for this to be the third game in a row that has surpassed the total.
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: The Miami Heat are in the last chance saloon if they are to keep hold of the NBA title they won a season ago and also to avoid all the criticism that will surely be flung their way if they don't at least extend this to a Game 7.
Both teams have recovered from big losses in the series and I do think the Heat can maintain that trend in this one. The likes of Manu Ginobili, Tim Duncan and Tony Parker could have a tough time maintaining their form from the last game with just one day rest between games, while I expect a much better defensive effort from the Heat in this one.
The desperate team continues to find a way to shift the momentum in their favour and I like the Heat to cover in this Game 6 and force a huge Game 7 on Thursday.
San Antonio Spurs @ Miami Heat Game 7 Pick: This series has been great from a fan point of view, but the games have been really difficult to pick against the spread with a number of strange turns of event throughout.
My biggest problem is trying to figure out if one day of rest is enough for the San Antonio Spurs to get rid of the feeling that they should have the Championship wrapped up already. The way they lost Game 6 has to be heartbreaking and their roster is a little older than Miami's, but previous experience of a Game 7 will help.
However, they are now playing against history as they look to become the first team in 35 years to win a Game 7 on the road in the NBA Finals and I just think Miami can pull away here if they get off to a strong start... Although my confidence levels aren't particularly high on this pick.
11/06 Miami Heat @ 2.17 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
13/06 Miami Heat @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
16/06 San Antonio Spurs-Miami Heat Over 188 Total Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
18/06 Miami Heat - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
20/06 Miami Heat - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
NBA Finals: 3-3, - 0.15 Units
Conference Finals: 4-4, - 0.26 Units
Play Off Semi Finals: 10-11, - 1.49 Units
First Round Play Offs: 21-18, + 2.19 Units
April Final: 6-9, - 3.40 Units
March Final: 20-16-1, + 3.08 Units
February Final: 6-3, + 2.61 Units
January Final: 5-14, - 9.31 Units
Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units
Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units