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Saturday, 29 June 2013

Wimbledon Day 6 Picks 2013 (June 29th)

If you've read this blog for any length of time, you will know that I am a very big fan of the talent that Laura Robson possesses so it was good to see her making it through to the Third Round at Wimbledon after backing up her First Round surprise over Maria Kirilenko.

Robson has so much upside that it really is hard to see her failing to at least make it into the top ten of the Women's game, although there are some big rivals around the same age that are certainly going to make it tough for Robson to win a Slam. I do think Robson has the talent to pick up one of the big prizes, especially if she can find some consistency behind the lefty serve, but she is likely to be rivaled by the likes of Sloane Stephens, Madison Keys and Kristina Mladenovic over the years and all three of those players look like future Grand Slam potential winners too.

Unlike the Men's game, teenagers are making a real impact on the WTA Tour and giving us a glimpse of the future of a sport once Serena Williams decides that other people should be given a chance to win the major prizes.

Roberta Vinci - 2.5 games v Dominika Cibulkova: Over the last couple of years, Roberta Vinci has seriously upped her game on the grass courts and I think she can overcome a tough opponent in Dominika Cibulkova to make it back to the Fourth Round here at Wimbledon.

The Italian has found a way to earn success against Cibulkova, winning their last four matches including a the US Open last year and also on a grass court a couple of years ago. The variation that Vinci uses in her game is clearly an issue for Cibulkova judging by the fact she has lost four in a row and eight of nine sets played between these players and it could be more of the same on Saturday.

Vinci did have to come through a very tough test in the Second Round, but she is a player that regularly juggles singles and doubles within the same Grand Slam so I don't foresee her having too many fitness issues.

Another straight sets win could be on the cards for Vinci and I like the Italian to cover this spread.

Novak Djokovic - 8.5 games v Jeremy Chardy: Jeremy Chardy is an improving player on the Tour and has already reached a career high Ranking ahead of this tournament at Wimbledon, but this does not provide the best match up for him.

Chardy has lost all six previous matches against Novak Djokovic, including a comprehensive loss here at Wimbledon the last time they faced one another back in 2011. On that day, Chardy won just five games as he was blown away, but I do expect him to make more of a match of this one.

However, he is playing a man on a mission at the moment and I think Djokovic will create chances on the Chardy serve and the only reason I have for him not covering is if he is as poor on the break points as he was against Bobby Reynolds. Djokovic admitted as much when he pointed out that was one area he was not happy with and I expect him to be better on Saturday.

The Frenchman can be a little unplayable when full of confidence, but I am expecting Djokovic to make enough returns to keep pressure on Chardy. That should lead to a place in the Fourth Round after a 63, 64, 62 scoreline in favour of the World Number 1.

Tommy Haas - 1.5 sets v Feliciano Lopez: Both of these players have shown tremendous form over the last couple of months even though both are on the wrong side of 30 and two of the older players in the draw. Tommy Haas is 35, but playing almost as good as when he reached Number 2 in the World and looks like he has a big chance of winning a place at the End of Year Championships in London on current form.

Feliciano Lopez is turning 32 in a couple of months, but won the title in Eastbourne in the final warm up event for Wimbledon and has the game that works perfectly on the grass courts.

Both players are actually very comfortable on the grass courts and that makes this a fascinating Third Round match for the right to likely face Novak Djokovic on Monday in the Fourth Round. However, when you break down the games of both men, I think Haas is the more consistent- Lopez is a solid player, but the backhand is the weakest shot in this match and I believe the German will force him to play that shot enough to find success.

They haven't met since 2004 on Tour and I am looking forward to this one... I just feel Haas is going to have the edge and will likely take this in four close sets.

Tomas Berdych win 3-1 in sets v Kevin Anderson: Tomas Berdych has met Kevin Anderson on eight occasions since the beginning of 2012 and he has won all eight matches they have played, while he has also won 11 sets in a row against the big South African.

This is the first time the players will be meeting on the grass and I just think there is a decent chance that we will see tie-breakers and I think Anderson can at least break his run of losing sets to Berdych.

When I have seen these two play one another, Anderson has certainly had his chances to win sets but has just come up a little short. The grass should make his game a little bigger and while Tomas Berdych has quietly put together a couple of wins in straight sets, it might not be as straight-forward this time around.

We saw Ernests Gulbis beat Berdych in three straight tie-breakers last season, but I expect his dominance of Anderson to continue in this match. However, I won't be surprised if Anderson steals a set in a 63 67 76 64 win for the third highest seed left in the Men's draw.

MY PICKS: Roberta Vinci - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 8.5 Games @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tommy Haas - 1.5 Sets @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych win 3-1 @ 3.60 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Benoit Paire - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units) Already Advised

Wimbledon Update: 9-6, + 5.98 Units (30 Units Staked, + 19.93% Yield)

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