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It was the week that I had been fearing for a while, but in each of the last few weeks I have mentioned that continuing to produce winning e...

Sunday, 23 June 2013

Wimbledon Outright Picks and Preview 2013 (June 24-July 7)

And just like that we have reached the third Grand Slam of the season, a time of the year when the British public actually remember tennis has a 'season' and the hopes of a nation turn to see whether a player can pick up the coveted title here.

After years of watching Tim Henman come agonisingly close to making the Final at Wimbledon, the Brits finally had a male player reach that landmark when Andy Murray got through to the last Sunday in 2012. However, Murray came up a little short against Roger Federer, although he is considered one of the top contenders to go a step further this time around now he has won an Olympic Gold and his first Major at the US Open.

Like all of the Grand Slams, the top four Men's players are the leading contenders and it is very unlikely that anyone out side of the usual contenders will win the title this time around. However, the draw has certainly looked lopsided with Rafael Nadal being the Number 5 seed at the Championships this season and ending up in the same half as Murray and Roger Federer has certainly made it feel that Novak Djokovic has the clearest path through to the Final.


Before the tournament began, the Women's event looked like being as straightforward as the French Open with Serena Williams being the clear favourite and the biggest question being whether Maria Sharapova would be in her half of the draw or share that with Victoria Azarenka.

Now, a war of words seems to have developed between Williams and Sharapova, the two biggest stars on the WTA Tour, and that will have a lot of people hoping that the two meet in the Final in two weeks time. There is clearly a tension between these two players that has existed for some time and the fact that Grigor Dimitrov, the current Sharapova boyfriend, is rumoured to have been dating Serena last summer hasn't gone down well with the American.

Williams and Sharapova might be a little one sided on the court at the moment, but I think the Russian has moved ahead in the war of words, up to the point I am writing this, and it will be interesting how Serena returns serve when she has her moment in front of the press.


Men's Event
First Quarter
The Number 1 seeded Novak Djokovic has been placed at the head of the Men's draw and he immediately would have been very happy to see his main rivals for the Wimbledon title all place in the other half of the draw. While a lot of 'experts' have claimed that gives Djokovic an 'easy' path to the Final, there are a couple of definite banana skin opponents that he will have to get through if he is to make it to his second Wimbledon Final in three years.

The first three Rounds shouldn't pose too many problems, even accounting for Florian Mayer which is a difficult First Round clash, but that is when Novak Djokovic will face his first real challenge in my opinion.

The Serb is likely to meet either Feliciano Lopez, a player that has reached the Quarter Final at Wimbledon before and has the game to suit the grass courts, or Tommy Haas, the player that has been enjoying an Indian summer on the Tour and who is very adept on the grass. Haas also has beaten Djokovic earlier this season and has previous by beating him twice on the grass courts in 2009, including a Quarter Final win over Djokovic at Wimbledon.

A potential Djokovic-Haas match would only be a Fourth Round clash, but I don't think it would be too far fetched to imagine the winner of that one making his way through to the Semi Final. Tomas Berdych and Richard Gasquet are the top seeded players that could stand in the way in the Quarter Final, while Sam Querrey can certainly use the grass to his advantage.

However, there would be question marks about their ability to beat Djokovic, the most likely player they will face at that stage, and the World Number 1 would kick himself if he doesn't make it through to the Semi Final.

Prediction: Novak Djokovic will have to be on his game to knock off Tommy Haas, but I do expect he will make it through this section.


Second Quarter
The problem with Rafael Nadal being the Number 5 seed was simply the fact that there could be one Quarter of the draw that looked a little weaker than the other three. Once the draw was thrown up, it worked out to be the case in the section where David Ferrer will be the highest seed.

Players like Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Philipp Kohlschreiber, Grigor Dimitrov and Juan Martin Del Potro will all feel that they are capable of reaching the Semi Final at the expense of Ferrer, but I think it is the Spaniard who has been given the best draw and has the least concerns surrounding his form.

Unlike those other names I mentioned, David Ferrer should be able to ease his way into the tournament and he showed his ability by reaching the Quarter Final here last season. He has a winning record against the likes of Raonic, who has been in poor form, and Kohlschreiber who are going to provide his toughest test in the Fourth Round.

After that, Ferrer has the chance to pick the bones of whoever comes through the tougher bottom half of this section and I wouldn't be surprised if we see the same thing as twelve months ago and that is the Spaniard knocking off Juan Martin Del Potro on the grass in the Quarter Final to win this section.

Prediction: David Ferrer to reach his fourth consecutive Grand Slam Semi Final


Third Quarter
The third section of the draw is very going to be decided between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal and you can already imagine the tournament organisers salivating at the prospect of these two players meeting once again on the famous green lawns at the All England Club.

Federer and Nadal have shared nine of the last ten Wimbledon titles and on current form I think it would definitely be a match that the Spaniard would be favoured to win.

Neither one of these players will be too troubled by the draw ahead of their blockbuster Quarter Final, although Federer needs to be careful that he isn't blitzed by Lukas Rosol in a potential Third Round clash as Nadal was last season. On the other hand, Nadal will likely have the tougher Fourth Round match against someone like Stanislas WawrinkaLleyton Hewitt or John Isner.

However, it would be a big surprise, similar to when Nadal went out last season, if the the two old rivals are not facing each other a week on Wednesday. Out of the two players, Nadal is considerably stronger form than Federer and has been playing like the best player in the World since returning from his seventh month lay off.

Nadal has also got the better of Federer far more often than not, even if Federer leads the head to head 2-1 on the grass courts. The Spaniard has won 4 of the last 5 matches, including in the Semi Final at the Australian Open in 2012 and the stats make even more disappointing reading when taking away matches played on the indoor hard courts.

Without those, Nadal has won 14 of the last 16 matches between the pair and I would expect him to do the same again this time around.

Prediction: Rafael Nadal has been in very strong form and he is one of the better grass court players in the world and should be able to beat Roger Federer in a potential Quarter Final.


Fourth Quarter
The final quarter of the Men's draw is led by Andy Murray who will been raring to go having missed the French Open and a lot of the British public will be of the belief that he can end the long wait for the home Men's Champion at Wimbledon. He might be in the tougher half of the draw, but Murray can't been too disappointed with the path that has been laid out for him to the Final for the second year in a row.

Murray should be fairly comfortable in getting through to the Quarter Final even with the likes of Nicolas Mahut, Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic in this portion of the draw and I would be a little surprised if he drops more than a set to that point in the tournament.

It is there that things could get significantly tougher as he could face someone like Jo-Wilfried Tsonga or Marin Cilic, two of the more comfortable grass court players on the Tour. However, there is every chance that he could face one of those off the back of a really tough Fourth Round clash against one another, while Murray has had the better of the pair of them more often than not.

The World Number 2 has won 13 matches in a row against both Cilic and Tsonga combined and beat both on his way to the Queens title so anything other than Andy Murray being involved in the Semi Final again would be a surprise.

Prediction: Andy Murray looks the most accomplished player in this Quarter and he should be waiting in the Semi Final


Winner and Picks
Even though the best four players in the Men's game can't all be involved in the Semi Finals, I would be very surprised if one of those players isn't the person lifting the trophy in two weeks time. The 'easiest' path is certainly afforded to the World Number 1 and I think it would be silly to keep Novak Djokovic out of the staking plan.

However, grass is not necessarily Djokovic's most comfortable surface and that does make him a little vulnerable, but he will rarely receive a better draw in a Grand Slam and so I will make his one of my picks here.

I will also add Rafael Nadal to my staking plan considering the form that he has shown since returning from seven months off the Tour and a two-time winner here at Wimbledon shows that he has the temperament to move from the clay to the grass without too much negative impact on his game.

Nadal is the form player and his 13-5 head to head record, including 3-0 at Wimbledon, against Andy Murray is hard to ignore.

The final pick from the Men's draw that I will make is taking David Ferrer to reach his fourth consecutive Grand Slam Semi Final. The Spaniard seems to avoid the real dangers in his quarter of the draw until they have been in testing matches themselves and he has shown his ability on the grass courts over the last twelve months to think he can fight through the draw.


Women's Event
First Quarter
As is rightly the case, Serena Williams will head up the Women's draw at a tournament that her and Venus Williams have dominated over the last thirteen years. Serena won the French Open and is looking to win the fourth Grand Slam from the last five that have been played and it is tough to see how she will be stopped with the form she has shown.

However, the draw hasn't been as kind to the American as it could have been and the problems could begin as early as the Second Round where she could face Jie Zheng, the player that forced Serena into a final set decider here a year ago that was eventually won by the latter 9-7.

Tamira Paszek and Sabine Lisicki are very capable on the grass courts and are potential opponents for Serena in the Third and Fourth Round respectively, but while both have enjoyed success on the grass, I am not convinced they have the mental fortitude to beat Serena at Wimbledon.

The likes of Maria Kirilenko and Angelique Kerber are also in this quarter of the draw so there are potential pitfalls for Serena who is still putting in at least one match when she is not near her 'A' game in a Grand Slam and a surprise could be on the cards.

Prediction: Anyone but Serena Williams would be a huge shock, but there are potential dangers for her to consider in this quarter.


Second Quarter
Much like the Men's draw, the second quarter of the Ladies event at Wimbledon looks the one where the top seeded player is in most danger not to make it through to the Semi Final as expected.

Agnieszka Radwanska made it through to the Final last year before falling to Serena Williams, but the Polish player has not been in the best form over the last couple of months, pretty much since she dyed her hair blonde in fact.

That makes her vulnerable in my opinion, although there are not a lot of alternative choices that make more appeal. Na Li is inconsistent, but she has shown form on the grass courts in the past but the draw hasn't been the most kind with the dangerous Simona Halep  a potential Second Round opponent.

Other potential players that could upset the seedings are the likes of Daniela Hantuchova and Tsvetana Pironkova, who won the event in Birmingham and are a former Wimbledon Semi Finalist respectively.

Prediction: Agnieszka Radwanska looks vulnerable, but it is hard to see which player is consistent enough to take the most advantage... Maybe a surprise Semi Finalist like Simona Halep is in the offing.


Third Quarter
The third quarter of the Women's draw is where Maria Sharapova has been placed and she will certainly have a bit of extra motivation to try and break Serena Williams' dominance of the WTA Tour after comments attributed to the American last week.

Sharapova is definitely very happy to be back on the grass where she won her first Grand Slam title, but backing that up has been difficult, although she did reach the Final a couple of years ago before losing to Petra Kvitova.

I don't think it is disrespectful to say that the Women's game doesn't have the same depth as the Men's and I don't see any real problems for Sharapova to reach the Quarter Final with the biggest challenge being Marion Bartoli, a player not really in the form to upset the Russian.

Caroline Wozniacki, Sloane Stephens and Sara Errani are potential Quarter Final opponents, but lack of form, experience and ability on this surface suggests Sharapova should make swift work of most of her opponents ahead of the Semi Final.

Prediction: Maria Sharapova could come through the section without dropping a set


Fourth Quarter
Victoria Azarenka is the Number 2 seed in the draw so has been placed in the final quarter and she looks in a decent position to arrange a potential repeat of her Semi Final against Maria Sharapova that was played in Paris around three weeks ago.

She should be too good for the likes of Jelena Jankovic before we get to the Quarter Final, especially with the latter being a much better player on the clay courts than she has shown consistently on the grass.

At the Quarter Final stage, it could certainly be a more awkward match for Azarenka as she could face opponents of the calibre of Ana Ivanovic, Ekaterina Makarova or Petra Kvitova.

However, there are some serious question marks surrounding each of those players that would make it quite an upset if they are to knock off Azarenka- Ivanovic has struggled against the better players on the Tour, Makarova is very inconsistent, while Kvitova is not playing anything near the form that took her to the Wimbledon crown.

Prediction: Victoria Azarenka should be too good for her rivals in this quarter.


Winner and Picks
Serena Williams is rightly the player to beat in the tournament, but I can't help thinking she is far too short at the prices, especially with some tough looking matches that could cause problems if she is not totally on her game.

Instead, I will back Maria Sharapova to at least be her opponent in the Final by coming through the bottom half of the draw. I would favour Victoria Azarenka against Sharapova on the hard courts and possibly even the clay courts, despite her loss on the surface in Paris, but the grass courts should aid the Russian's game and help her get through.

Backing Sharapova does look a good option in case Serena does fall early and she will be the first pick I make from the Woman's draw.

I will also have a very small interest in Simona Halep to perhaps be one of the surprise Semi Finalists by winning the second quarter of the draw. Halep has been in very good form in recent weeks and comes in off back to back tournament wins, including on the grass in Holland last week.

Her form has been good in a section which does look open for a few players and she has the confidence of beating some of the bigger names in the quarter behind her. Halep is certainly an improving player and I'll have a very small interest in her.


MY OUTRIGHT PICKS: Novak Djokovic @ 2.20 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Rafael Nadal @ 5.50 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
David Ferrer to Win Second Quarter @ 2.50 Stan James (2 Units)
Maria Sharapova @ 7.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit E/W)
Simona Halep to win second quarter @ 11.00 (0.5 Units)

Note: Ladbrokes and Paddy Power will refund outright selections if Andy Murray wins the tournament

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