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Wednesday, 5 June 2013

French Open Day 11 Picks 2013 (June 5th)

Day 10 at the French Open saw the very comfortable exit of Roger Federer and that has to be a real disappointment for fans of the former World Number 1. I think Federer has been considered to be on the slide prematurely in the past and he has responded by winning Grand Slam titles in that time, but this year there does feel like something has changed.

For the first time in 13 years, Federer entered the French Open without a title to his name and I even think some of his defeats this season to the players like Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga has to be a concern as these are players he will potentially bump into at Quarter Final stages of Grand Slam tournaments.

I do think that Federer is better suited to Wimbledon and the US Open when it comes to winning Grand Slam titles going forward, but the draw here at Roland Garros was certainly favouring him reaching the Final and I think that is the most disappointing aspect of him being beaten in the Quarter Final. The highlights showed that Federer was overpowered and making far too many mistakes.

There is also the concern about his serve and whether it has lost the effectiveness that it has had over the years- I know Federer bristled when asked about that a couple of weeks ago by a reporter, but there is no doubt in my mind that his opponents are finding a way to create chances on his serve and it seems to be much more difficult for him to hold serve at the moment.

It would be extremely silly to rule Federer out in the remaining two Grand Slam tournaments to be played this year, but there seems to be more players that are going to fancy their chances of beating him and I think the other three members of the World's top four will pose too many problems going forward.

I do hope I am wrong, but I do believe that this season is going to see the slide of Federer to the point that he is no longer a genuine threat to win the biggest prizes in tennis and I am not sure how long he will continue if he believes that to be the case.

Some will mention Tommy Haas and how much he is achieving at four years older than Federer, but Haas doesn't have the same amount of tennis in his legs as Federer has over the years and the player who has won the most Grand Slam titles in Men's tennis history may not be able to add another to the 17 he has picked up in his career.

Maria Sharapova - 5.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: All the build up to this Quarter Final has focused on the fact that these two players have known each other since they were young girls and that there is a little bit of tension between them.

Maria Sharapova is the defending Champion here at Roland Garros and I think she will be able to find a way to get the better of Jelena Jankovic, despite the clay courts being one of the favourites for the Serbian.

The serve is going to be all important in this match and I do think Maria Sharapova is the more solid when it comes to that shot and that is why I believe she will be able to get away from Jankovic in this one.

Jankovic can certainly defend well enough to force mistakes from Sharapova, but I am not sure she has the consistency and weight of shot to trouble the Russian consistently and I do think Sharapova will come through 64 62.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v Stanislas Wawrinka: Stanislas Wawrinka showed some real guts and determination to beat Richard Gasquet in the Fourth Round, coming back from 2-0 down to do so, but facing Rafael Nadal is a totally different prospect.

While the Spaniard struggled in the first week of the tournament to impose his game fully, the conditions are now much more to his liking as it has certainly heated up in Paris. That will enable Nadal to really get the ball moving in the manner he is capable of and I do think it is a big ask for Wawrinka to knock him off, even if the Swiss Number 2 has been playing at a high level for much of the season.

Mentally it will be tough to overcome the fact that he has lost all 9 matches against Nadal in the past and I do think the 'King of Clay' will be able to come through in straight sets. It won't be a complete blowout I don't think, but Nadal should be able to record a 64 62 64 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Maria Sharapova - 5.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)

French Open Update: 16-12, + 6.38 Units (54 Units Staked, + 11.81% Yield)

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