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Sunday, 9 June 2013

French Open Men's Final 2013- Rafael Nadal v David Ferrer (June 9th)

The Women's Champions was decided yesterday and I still can't quite believe that the score was 'only' 64 64 in favour of Serena Williams- it was by far the most one-sided match I had seen in some time that looked so close on the scoreboard.

To be perfectly honest, Williams did not return serve as effectively as she can and there were far too many unreturned serves, even off the second serve. Her break point conversion rate was poor and if I was watching that match without a scoreboard in front of me, I would have thought Serena had won 62 62.

Now we get to the final day of Roland Garros 2013 and that means it is time for the Men's Final. The weather forecast doesn't look the best and there is every chance that we may have to see the Final conclude on Monday for the second year in succession.

Both Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer have no commitments next week so it won't affect other tournaments if that is the case, but I am sure Ferrer would rather get the match going today when the conditions are set to be cooler than it has been over the last week.

Rafael Nadal - 7.5 games v David Ferrer: The conditions have certainly favoured Rafael Nadal over the last week of the tournament here and even though he is now competing in his eighth Roland Garros Final, I am expecting some nerves on his part. The fact of the matter is that Nadal is playing his first Grand Slam since Wimbledon last June and he is going to be a little nervous being back in this position to win one of the big prizes in the tennis calender.

It will also be interesting to see how much the Semi Final has taken out of Nadal, although his fitness has never been in question in the past. I would look at his response to his five set epic against Fernando Verdasco in the 2009 Australian Open Semi Final when he went on and beat Roger Federer in five sets in the Final.

On the other hand, David Ferrer has made the most serene progress through the draw, yet to drop a set and also spending around six hours less time on court than his compatriot, but the match up against Nadal has not suited him much, especially on the clay courts.

However, in saying that, he has at least made the matches a little more competitive the last two times they have played on the clay courts, with Ferrer picking up a set in both of those matches. The problem for Ferrer is maintaining the level required to hang with Nadal for more than a couple of sets and he also has to remove memories of his crushing defeat here in the Semi Final twelve months ago.

On that occasion, Ferrer won just 5 games as Nadal completely obliterated his game, but I am expecting this one to be a little closer. The conditions should help Ferrer today, but Nadal has looked a man on a mission in the last week.

Nadal had fortune on his side in the final set against Novak Djokovic on Friday and I think he will ride that momentum to a 64, 62, 63 win.

MY PICK: Rafael Nadal - 7.5 Games @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)

French Open Update: 19-15, + 6.68 Units (66 Units Staked, + 10.12% Yield)

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