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Wednesday, 4 July 2012

Wimbledon Day 9 Picks (July 4th 2012)

Day 9 is Men's Quarter Finals day at Wimbledon, but the weather forecast remains unsettled to say the least.

At the beginning of the week, the tournament was heavily criticised for putting Andy Murray on Court 1 rather than Centre Court despite the poor forecast, but I think we have to take a step up here. At the end of the day, only three matches are scheduled on Centre Court, two of those being Men's matches and I think the second Monday of the tournament is always going to lead to one or two of the really big names in the Men's game to be left off the court.

The bottom line is that Wimbledon can't be seen to favour one player over the six time Wimbledon Champion, Roger Federer, the two time Champion in Rafael Nadal and the defending Champion Novak Djokovic and even Nadal's exit doesn't change that fact.

Picks:

Roger Federer - 7.5 games v Mikhail Youzhny: I am taking a risk and assuming Roger Federer's back injury would have settled down over the last couple of days since suffering a spasm in his win over Xavier Malisse and I think this is a good match up for him to reach the Semi Final.

Mikhail Youzhny is a very solid competitor, but I don't think he has the consistency to keep up with Federer if the latter is on his game and he was beaten comfortably when the two players met at Halle last month on the grass courts.

Federer has won all his meetings against Youzhny and has won his last three against him on grass pretty comfortably and I will look for him to try and make quick work of this one to give himself as much rest as possible before a likely Semi Final against Novak Djokovic on Friday.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Philipp Kohlschreiber was the biggest beneficiary of Rafael Nadal's surprising exit, but he still had to take advantage of that and he has not dropped a set in the last three Rounds following a five set win over Tommy Haas in the First Round. However, this is a really tough match up for him as he faces Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

Tsonga suffered from a few back issues himself yesterday, but he began to feel a lot better as that match with Mardy Fish developed and I think his 5-1 head to head record will give him the added confidence that he can reach the Semi Final here at Wimbledon for the second season in succession.

Tsonga won't have it easy as Kohlschreiber's game translates onto the grass courts very effectively, but the German is likely to be a little nervous having reached this stage in a Grand Slam event for the first time in his career. He also has to reverse recent history where has lost the last 8 sets competed against Tsonga.

The grass is the Frenchman's favourite surface too and I think he will be a little too good for Kohlschreiber in this one.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 7.5 games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games @ 2.14 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Wimbledon Update: 15-15, + 1.70 Units (59 Units Staked)

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