Tennis Picks July 17th

At the time of writing, the rain has come down in Atlanta and that has left the second pick I made on Monday in a bit of limbo. I am continuing to have an eye on the Atlanta pictures while I am writing this thread, otherwise I will just update the profit/loss at the bottom of the page tomorrow (now been completed with a win for Gilles Muller).

I will also only be making picks from the three tournaments taking place in Europe at this time and I will come back tomorrow for any picks made from the two tournaments taking place in the United States.

I don't usually like making a lot of picks from any day as regular readers will know, but I have found a few underdogs that look like they may be worth chancing as well as some strong looking favourites.

Without much ado, it is on to the picks:


Pablo Andujar v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: This is a First Round battle between two Spanish players that will be very happy to be playing on the clay courts, but both will also be short of confidence after recent results.

This has been set as a pick 'em contest, but I do like Pablo Andujar's chances of winning his sixth match from seven tries against Albert Ramos-Vinolas.

Both players have been losing a lot of matches in recent weeks with Andujar losing seven of his last eight matches and Ramos losing five of his last six. The grass court season was never really going to sit well with either player, although Ramos can at least point to the fact that he had to play Roger Federer in the First Round at Wimbledon.

Andujar has actually won his last four matches against Ramos, the last three of those coming in straight sets including twice earlier this year on the clay courts. That makes it more surprising that he has been set as the underdog in this one as the form isn't much different between the players and the mental edge belongs to Andujar.


Lukas Rosol v Victor Troicki: Lukas Rosol may have played the best game of his life when he beat Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon a couple of weeks ago, but he has returned to his bread and better on the Tour in a bid to pick up more Ranking points and try and get into the top 100.

He meets Victor Troicki here in Hamburg and I do like Rosol's chances of securing a surprise victory considering how Troicki has played on this surface during this season and with a real chance that the Serb will be more concentrated on playing at the Olympic Games in a couple of weeks time.

It is a surprise to see Troicki out on the circuit this week considering he took an extended break after Wimbledon last season and I am not sure what he hopes to gain from this week. That 'lack of motivation' may give Rosol the edge considering these points are all vital in his bid to move up the Rankings.

These two have played two close matches this season with each picking up a win. Rosol's win came in a dead rubber in the Davis Cup, but that did come on a clay court and he may just pick up a surprise win here.


Dustin Brown v Sergiy Stakhovsky: This is more a pick against Sergiy Stakhovsky rather than backing Dustin Brown, but I do think the German qualifier may just have the edge and can take the win in yet another pick 'em contest.

Stakhovsky suffered an injury in his loss to Tommy Haas at the French Open and that has led to him retiring in two subsequent tournaments before exiting in the First Round last week in Stuttgart.

Brown did well to reach the Quarter Final last week in Stuttgart having won a couple of matches as the underdog before falling to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez and he has already won three matches here to get into the main draw and all that should have him ready for the conditions and able to cause a slight surprise.

Unfortunately the two places with the best prices on Dustin Brown do not pay out in terms of a retirement, but I would be surprised if Stakhovsky does that having fallen in a three set match last week.


Anabel Medina Garrigues - 3.5 games v Laura Robson: There won't be too many regular readers of these picks or the recaps I have at the end of every week that are unaware of how high I am on the talent that Laura Robson possesses. However, I think this is a far tougher match for her than the layers like to think and I believe Anabel Medina Garrigues will be able to win the match fairly comfortably.

The Spanish player lost in the First Round while Robson went all the way to the Semi Final in Palermo last week, but I do think Medina Garrigues is one of the more solid clay courts players in this field in Bastad and may have a little too much know how and experience for the British number 3.

Robson can get hot in matches and that is the only concern I would have for this pick, but Medina Garrigues thrashed her for the loss of just three games at the French Open a couple of months ago and also comfortably saw off the challenge of Robson at the US Open last season.

I expect Medina Garrigues is going to continue to get enough balls back in play and hope that Robson's inconsistencies haunt her and it has been the unforced errors in the Robson game that has cost her the last two matches against this player.


Michael Russell - 3.5 games v Alex Kuznetsov: It isn't easy playing a compatriot at the best of times, but it must be extremely difficult when you have lost all 9 previous matches against an opponent.

That is the task facing Alex Kuznetsov today as he faces the veteran Michael Russell and I have a feeling it will be one loaded with too many mental questions and one he may not be able to pass.

Russell remains a solid 'gatekeeper' when it comes to tennis in the United States, although Kuznetsov will at least have familiarity on his side as he has won three qualifying matches to get to this stage.

The problem isn't just the fact that he has struggled against Russell in the past and failed to win, but the fact that he has lost the last 11 sets they have competed in and has won just ONE set in the nine previous matches.

Russell is obviously on the way down the hill, but I don't think he has fallen to a level where Kuznetsov will beat him and I can see a 6-3, 7-6 win for the veteran.


MY PICKS: Pablo Andujar @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Lukas Rosol @ 2.25 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Dustin Brown @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)
Anabel Medina Garrigues - 3.5 games @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Michael Russell - 3.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Weekly Update: 1-1, + 0.90 Units (3 Units Staked)