Tennis Picks July 20th

The biggest news from the tennis world yesterday was the declaration of Rafael Nadal that he will not be taking part in the Olympics in ten days time because he is 'in no condition' to do so.

It does pose a lot of question marks about how much Nadal can achieve during the rest of the season as the last Grand Slam of the year is fast approaching, while the indoor season has never really sat well with the Spaniard.

The real question that needs to be answered at the moment is what exactly is wrong with Nadal? Is the injury as serious as the knee issues that forced him to miss Wimbledon back in 2009 after a surprise early exit to Robin Soderling at the French Open? Or is this just a precautionary move from Nadal in a bid to get himself in top shape going into the US Open.

There isn't a lot of time between the Olympic Games and the Master event in Toronto and Cincinnati with just days between the First Round in Canada and the Gold Medal match in London.

It leads to the issue of the Ranking points that Nadal has over the coming months and whether there is a real possibility that he will fall out of the top three in the Rankings- he doesn't have many points to defend from Canada and Cincinnati, but Andy Murray may have closed the gap before those tournaments with a good performance at the Olympics, while missing the US Open would almost guarantee that Nadal is falling below the British player.

Right now we don't have much information as to why Nadal has pulled out except he is 'in no condition' to be playing- it has come out of left field as he was tweeting pictures of himself preparing for the Games and I wonder if he has had some news or a setback in training with his knees constantly scrutinised.

I have read some articles that have questioned whether Nadal is at a 'crossroads' in his career, but that is an extreme reaction to someone who may just be getting in shape for the rest of the season knowing he already has a Gold Medal safely in his trophy cabinet. It's far too early and there is not enough information to be making grand statements like those writers have been making, but I will be looking on with interest to see if Nadal is ready for the two Masters events that will begin on August 6th.


One player that may benefit the most from the absence of the Spaniard is Roger Federer who has always wanted a Gold Medal from the singles tournaments. He did win one with Stanislas Wawrinka in the doubles four years ago, but Federer will never have had a better chance to win the 'Golden Slam' and leave him just one Davis Cup short of winning everything possible in the game.

I don't think Federer will fear anyone on the grass courts, especially after winning Wimbledon a couple of weeks ago, and I expect him to be in contention of the medals. The absence of Nadal is a boost to his chances, even if he would never admit that in public, and I think he should be the favourite to win the event.

However, there is still the matter of where Andy Murray lands in the draw as the Brit is capable of beating one of the top two seeds, particularly in the best of three format that will be used in this event so there are still some hurdles for Federer to overcome if he is to pick up the top prize.


The picks have had another tough week so far, with some poor picks but also a little bit of bad luck that hasn't fallen for us. Anabel Medina Garrigues failed to serve out a match against Laura Robson and thus missed the cover, while Jeremy Chardy dominated his match with Julian Reister but couldn't cover and earned the push as he had started serving second in the match.

With Kevin Anderson also exiting in Atlanta, that means the only outright pick of the week is already out of the tournament and means this will be the last day I make picks from this weeks tournaments if I don't see a change in fortune.


Nicolas Almagro - 2 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: Both men have made fairly comfortable progress through to this Quarter Final match and it will be a close one as Philipp Kohlschreiber is leading the head to head against Nicolas Almagro 4-3.

However, I do feel the clay courts give Almagro the edge and he will feel he can at least replicate the performance that saw him reach the Final in this event last season. He has won all four sets he has played this week and he will feel he can add to the two titles he has won on the clay courts this season as well as continuing the form that took him to the Final in Bastad last week.

Kohlschreiber is no mug on the surface, but he is only 4-4 outside of a tournament win in Munich earlier this season and he was actually beaten by Almagro in the Third Round here last season.

Both have decent serves and I wouldn't be surprised if one of the sets ends up in a tie-break, but I think Almagro is a little more consistent of the two when it comes to matches on clay and that is why I am backing him to cover the spread here.


Feliciano Lopez + 3 games v Thomaz Bellucci: Two left-handers will play one another in this Quarter Final with a real belief that they can get through and perhaps even go on and win this tournament.

Feliciano Lopez is not the normal Spaniard in that he feels much more comfortable on the faster courts than he does on the clay, but he has finished with a winning record on this surface in each of the last three seasons. He will also have been given a boost with the news that he will be able to represent Spain in the Olympic Games now that Rafael Nadal has had to withdraw from the event.

He will need to perform well if he is to beat Thomaz Bellucci as the Brazilian has won a Challenger and reached the Semi Final of a Main Tour event over the last couple of weeks. That amount of tennis can take its toll eventually and he has also lost his previous two meetings with Lopez.

I think there is every chance that Bellucci wins this match, but I think it will be a close one and Lopez is capable of winning a set which should hopefully ensure that we get a push at the very worst.


Ernests Gulbis v Paul-Henri Mathieu: There isn't a lot I am going to write about this match except I am surprised to see Ernests Gulbis is the underdog against Paul-Henri Mathieu and so has to be worth chancing at the prices on offer.

Mathieu has had a couple of injury hit seasons on the Tour and this is the first time he has been in action since retiring from Wimbledon with an injury to his back. This is the first Quarter Final on the Main Tour that the Frenchman has played this season and I just feel he might be a little over-rated having beaten Stanislas Wawrinka in the last Round.

He plays an enigmatic opponent in Gulbis, one whose performances can be up and down from day to day but who should be confident having recorded a couple of three set wins to reach this Quarter Final. With Gulbis being a total confidence based player, I think he will feel he is good enough in this one to take care of an opponent that hasn't had too many matches this season.

I would take a very small interest in the match as Gulbis is not exactly the most reliable player on the Tour.


Tsvetana Pironkova v Polona Hercog: I don't like backing Tsvetana Pironkova outside of the grass courts as she doesn't really translate that form to the other nine months of the season.

However, she has won a couple of matches here in Bastad and I like her chances of beating Polona Hercog as the underdog in this one.

While I have some reservations about Pironkova, she is actually enjoying a winning season so far, something she has not finished with in the previous four seasons. The Bulgarian has also won her two matches against Hercog and is facing an opponent that had lost seven of her last eight matches before winning a couple of matches here.

Hercog actually won the tournament here last season and was very adept at playing on the clay courts in 2011, but she has struggled to find that consistency so far in 2012 and she has not been winning many matches of late.

The two wins in the earlier Rounds will have given her confidence, but I think Pironkova looks a lively dog and I will have a small interest in her picking up the win.


MY PICKS: Sofia Arvidsson - 3 games @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units) Was picked yesteday but rain delayed the match until today
Nicolas Almagro - 2 games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez + 3 games @ 2.09 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ernests Gulbis @ 2.29 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Tsvetana Pirnokova @ 2.17 Pinnacle (1 Unit)


Weekly Update: 3-6, - 5.93 Units (14 Units Staked)