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Saturday 28 July 2012

Tennis Picks July 28th (London Olympics Day 1)

The major talking point from this week on the tennis calender is the London Olympics which will be played at Wimbledon from July 28th-August 5th.

However, there will also be an ATP 500 event in Washington which will begin on Monday and this is all before the two Masters tournaments in Toronto and Cincinnati begin on Monday 6th August.

I have made four outright picks from the Olympic tournament and those can be found here

Below, I have started the picks from the First Round matches that will be played on Saturday:


David Nalbandian v Janko Tipsarevic: This is a rematch from Wimbledon when these two players also met in the First Round and saw Janko Tipsarevic win in straight sets.

However, that match was much closer than it seems on first viewing with David Nalbandian missing a huge number of break point chances in that match which would have seen him split the first two sets and made a real match of it.

Tipsarevic has also been spending a lot of time on the clay courts between Wimbledon and this tournament and so he will also be looking to make a quick adjustment between surfaces while Nalbandian has taken a few weeks off (likely to avoid the press after what happened at Queens as much as getting ready for this tournament).

I just find it strange that the layers have actually made Nalbandian a much bigger price to win this match than when they met at Wimbledon and I actually believe the best of three sets will likely suit him better as he proved when reaching the Final at Queens in the lead up to the third Grand Slam of the year.

With the match at Wimbledon being as close as it was, I think the odds on Nalbandian are a bit of a joke to be honest and I will back him for the minimum stakes to get the better of Tipsarevic this time.


John Isner - 3.5 games v Olivier Rochus: I think John Isner has had a bit of a disappointing season after some impressive Davis Cup performances which has seen him beat the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga and Roger Federer on the clay courts.

He was a First Round loser at Wimbledon, but should have picked up some confidence from winning a grass tournament in Newport and reaching the Semi Finals in Atlanta and I think his serving may cause the diminutive Oliver Rochus some problems and build up the scoreboard pressure that will eventually see the Belgian crack.

Rochus makes up for his lack of size with a big heart, but I find it hard to see him getting too much joy from the Isner service game and that may be the difference between them.

Isner has also beaten Rochus in both previous matches, including on a grass court last season, and would have covered this spread on offer on both occasions.


Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games v Lukasz Kubot: I am a little high on the way Grigor Dimitrov has been going about his business in recent weeks and there are some real signs that he is going to be able to fulfil some of the potential he has.

He reached the Semi Final at Queens earlier this year and was showing something on the grass courts at Wimbledon before he had to pull out with an injury. He has since reached the Semi Final of a clay court event and that includes a ridiculously comfortable win over Lukasz Kubot.

The Polish player is a solid competitor that has had his best time on the Tour over the last couple of seasons and he did reach the Fourth Round at Wimbledon in 2011. However, he has not shown that level of form on the grass courts this season and I think Dimitrov is going to be too strong in all aspects of the game.

The first set could be close and may even need a tie-break, but I expect the Bulgarian to earn two breaks of serve in this match and that could be enough to see him through with a cover of this spread.


Fernando Verdasco v Denis Istomin: This has been set slightly close to a pick 'em contest and I just believe that Fernando Verdasco should be a stronger favourite in my opinion.

Let's not beat around the bush- Verdasco has not had the most consistent of two seasons and he hasn't really shown a lot of positive form since beating Rafael Nadal in Madrid.

However, he does have a 3-0 head to head against Denis Istomin and that kind of positive vibe will not be lost on a player that may have lost some confidence after recent results. Istomin did reach the Quarter Final in Eastbourne and the Fourth Round at Wimbledon so he is clearly comfortable on the grass courts, but he can be a little hit and miss and it is hard to see him so short to beat a player like Verdasco.

It has the makings of a three set match, but it is one that I believe Verdasco can win and move on to the Second Round.


MY PICKS: David Nalbandian @ 2.60 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
John Isner - 3.5 games @ 1.73 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 games @ 2.01 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco @ 1.84 Pinnacle (2 Units)

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