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Friday 27 July 2012

Outright Picks London Olympics (July 28-August 5)

I took the last week off from making any picks from the three tennis tournaments going on as I felt there was just not enough motivation for some of the better players with this event beginning on Saturday 28th July.

While it is a smaller event than the Grand Slams, it still needs to be given a lot of respect as it actually has more participants than the Masters events that will be taking place in North America in the first couple of weeks in August.

There are a couple of notable absentees, but the major one is Rafael Nadal and that has skewed the Men's outright winner market with two clear favourites in Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. In the Women's tournament, Serena Williams has continuously seen her coming in as the favourite since winning at Wimbledon at the beginning of the month.


Men's Tournament
First Quarter
For the first time in a long time, Roger Federer will be heading up the draw and he has been given an intriguing First Round match against Alejandro Falla who had match points against Federer back in the First Round at Wimbledon in 2010. On that occasion, Falla actually won the first two sets and that would be enough for him to earn the win this time although I think the Colombian is unlikely to play to the level he did in that match a couple of years ago.

Federer could also potentially meet Julian Benneteau in the Second Round, a player that had a two set lead over the World Number 1 in the Third Round at Wimbledon this year, but it would be a big surprise if the confidence of winning at Wimbledon sees Federer drop to either of these players.

The Quarter as a whole looks there for the taking for Federer and I don't expect him to miss out with the importance he has put on earning a Gold Medal as a singles player for the first time. However, there is a potentially awkward match against John Isner that could be set for the Quarter Final.

Isner won a recent tournament at Newport on the grass, but he has not really fulfilled the promise of a season where he has beaten Federer in a best of five sets match on a clay court in Switzerland. He was beaten in the First Round at Wimbledon, but the best of three sets played at Wimbledon may just suit him a little more, although it would be a big surprise if anyone but Roger Federer is playing in the Semi Final.

Prediction: Got to be Roger Federer after winning Wimbledon and with a kind looking draw

Second Quarter
David Ferrer is the top seed in this section thanks to the absence of Rafael Nadal and it looks like this could be his third successful foray on to the grass courts this season alone. Ferrer won the tournament ahead of Wimbledon in Holland and then reached the Quarter Final at the Grand Slam.

The Spaniard looks like he is going to have a little too much consistency for anyone else in the section and he has a winning record over most of his potential opponents ahead of the Quarter Final here.

Some out there will be intrigued by Juan Martin Del Potro who is a potential opponent at that stage, but I remain convinced that the Argentine is not comfortable on the grass courts despite seemingly having all the tools that should make him a success. However, the lower bouncing balls makes it harder for him to dominate behind his groundstrokes in my opinion and he won just 8 games against Ferrer when they met in the Fourth Round at Wimbledon earlier this month.

He also has a couple of potentially awkward matches against Andreas Seppi, Grigor Dimitrov or Gilles Simon in his mini-section and it wouldn't be a huge surprise if the big man doesn't reach the Quarter Final. Del Potro does have the quality to get to that stage, but all three of those players I mentioned can play very well on the grass courts and could cause a surprise.

Prediction: David Ferrer has the consistency, the quality and the draw to get through to the Semi Final

Third Quarter
After the disappointment of the Wimbledon Final, Andy Murray will get his Olympic Gold Medal search underway but he won't be that happy with the draw. I remember we heard all the same things ahead of Wimbledon this year, but I actually this is a little more awkward than that one mainly because a best of three match can be finished before a player really gets going.

That will be the case for Murray if he doesn't have the right mindset with Stanislas Wawrinka his first opponent on slate, a player that has had a tough season for consistency but one that can perform well on the grass.

Further danger may lie in the Third Round where a rematch of his tough Wimbledon match with Marcos Baghdatis could await or a match with Richard Gasquet. I personally think Baghdatis would be the more dangerous opponent as Gasquet has a mental block it seems in matches he is not expected to win.

Tomas Berdych may provide the biggest danger to Murray as a potential Quarter Final opponent, but the Czech player needs to find form quickly if he is to get through to the Semi Final. He was a disappointing First Round loser at Wimbledon and was also beaten by Tommy Haas in his second match at Halle and has perhaps been under-performing in 2012 despite winning over 70% of his matches.

If the big man can find a bit of form, the draw looks like one that will suit him with the biggest problem likely to come from his rival Nicolas Almagro in the Third Round. However, the Spaniard hasn't got the best form on grass courts and Berdych should be too good on this surface.

Prediction: Tomas Berdych has a winning record over Andy Murray and may just be too good in a best of three set potential Quarter Final

Fourth Quarter
The final Quarter of the draw has a number of players that will consider the grass courts as being comfortable to play on- the likes of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Milos Raonic, Feliciano Lopez, Marin Cilic, Andy Roddick and Novak Djokovic all are involved in the section and there are the potential of some really interesting matches.

Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the tournament, but he has a really awkward looking match with Andy Roddick on slate in the Second Round, while a potential Third Round match with Marin Cilic will not be easy after the Croatian won at Queens last month.

Jo-Wilfried Tsonga could be awaiting a chance to gain some revenge over Djokovic after coming so close to beating him at the French Open a couple of months ago, but there is no guarantee the Frenchman can reach that stage as he has a potential match with Milos Raonic in the Second Round and that looks like it could be a long three setter with a couple of tie-breaks thrown in.

Prediction: I'd be a fool to write off Novak Djokovic reaching the Semi Final, but there are so many dangers throughout this section that I can see him going out at some point before the last four... Who takes advantage is anyone's guess?!

Gold Medal Winner
I think Roger Federer has to be very pleased with the draw that he has been given and he is likely to be secretly very happy to note that his nemesis Rafael Nadal will not be at the tournament.

After winning Wimbledon, Federer achieved a couple of his main goals for the 2012 season and that was winning a Grand Slam and reclaiming the World Number 1 spot. That should also give him plenty of confidence that he can win the last remaining piece that is missing on his CV as a singles player and that is the Gold Medal at this tournament.

Winning Wimbledon would also have shown Federer that he can beat anyone on the grass courts and he has the added bonus of not having to meet Andy Murray or Novak Djokovic until the Final when the Gold Medal is decided in a best of five sets match. I believe that will give Federer a little bit of mental comfort that the biggest threats to him winning this tournament would have to beat him over the longer distance rather than the best of three that can quickly get away against the best players (and would have seen him come VERY close to defeat at Wimbledon against Murray if that was decided in a best of three rather than five).

I am not surprised that Federer has joined Djokovic in the outright markets and he will be my main choice from the Men's draw.

The other pick I will make is Tomas Berdych as an each-way pick. I think he is questionable with the way his form has been over the last three months, but the likes of Murray and Djokovic have some really awkward looking matches in front of them and Berdych may just be able to take advantage.

The vast difference in prices makes the Czech player more appealing than those two, while he has seen it and done it before at Wimbledon as a former Finalist a couple of years ago.


Women's Tournament
First Quarter
After her run to the Semi Final at Wimbledon, Victoria Azarenka returned to the World Number 1 position and is thus given the honour of heading up the draw at the Olympics.

The first three Rounds of the draw don't seem to provide too many issues for Azarenka to negotiate, although a potential Third Round clash with Nadia Petrova wouldn't be an easy match. However, Azarenka has won the last two meetings with Petrova, both on a grass court no less, and I would favour her to be too good overall in that match.

It is at the Quarter Final stage that Azarenka is likely to face her biggest obstacle as she could play Angelique Kerber, the other Semi Finalist at Wimbledon that exited at that stage.

Kerber is the most likely opponent despite having Venus Williams in her mini-section of the draw, but I think the German is going to be too strong for the elder Williams sister that has struggled for consistency with the syndrome she is dealing with. As it is one that saps energy, I find it hard to believe Venus can roll back the clock in a tournament where players are likely going to play every day and so I do believe Kerber is the player that will move through to the Quarter Final.

Prediction: Victoria Azarenka looks the class in this section, but Angelique Kerber has shown how dangerous she can be on the grass courts.

Second Quarter
Serena Williams is rightly the favourite for this tournament after winning at Wimbledon and she should be fully motivated as winning the Singles Gold Medal will complete her career and ensure she has won everything possible while also matching older sister Venus who won in Sydney back in 2000.

The draw, on first viewing, looks to have been unkind to the Number 4 Seed, but I think Serena won't be too concerned. A match with Jelena Jankovic would have been a really tough one a couple of years ago, but the Serb is far from her best and she hasn't shown the pedigree needed to beat Serena on a grass court.

It would be more than a surprise if Serena Williams is not playing in the Quarter Final in a few days time.

Her opponent at that stage is not so obvious to pick as there are players that are very capable on going on a run- Caroline Wozniacki, Daniela Hantuchova, Na Li, Yanina Wickmayer and Tamira Paszek are all in this mini-section of the draw and it is the Austrian that I think may come through after her exploits at Wimbledon last month.

Paszek has shown she is more than capable on the grass courts and has been in the best form of the players I mentioned and I think she may be able to come through as long as she can bring her form from Wimbledon in.

Prediction: Regardless of who she plays in the Quarter Final, it is hard to look beyond Serena Williams here

Third Quarter
This section is all about whether Maria Sharapova can gain a measure of revenge against Sabine Lisicki, the player that beat her at Wimbledon last month. These two players are due to meet in the Third Round in this tournament, and I would expect the winner of that match will be the favourite to get through to the Semi Final.

One potential roadblock in the Quarter Final is Kim Clijsters although she will have to play a little better than she did at Wimbledon when hammered by Angelique Kerber.

However, there are other threats in this mini-section as the likes of Sam Stosur and Ana Ivanovic are likely opponents for Clijsters. However, Stosur has consistently under-performed when playing on the grass courts despite having what looks the right tools to play on the surface and Ana Ivanovic is still very inconsistent and wouldn't beat a fully-fit Clijsters in my opinion.

Prediction: This is a tough section, but I do believe the winner of it will be the winner of the Sabine Lisicki-Maria Sharapova match in the Third Round... That is a really close one to call in my opinion, but I think Sharapova's motivation for revenge may just send the pendulum her way

Fourth Quarter
This section comes down to two players as far as I am concerned and those two are Petra Kvitova and Agnieszka Radwanska.

Both have shown their pedigree on the grass courts and had their Wimbledon runs ended by the same player in Serena Williams. Petra Kvitova was a Quarter Final victim the year after winning at Wimbledon, while Radwanska was the runner-up after showing some real resolve in overcoming an illness.

Of the two players, I think Kvitova has the more negotiable path to the Quarter Final and I fully expect her to make use of her draw and get to that stage.

On the other hand, Radwanska has a tough beginning against Julia Goerges, but it is the potential Third Round match with Maria Kirilenko that could really pose the most problems. Kirilenko pushed Radwanska to three sets in their Quarter Final at Wimbledon last month and that was one that could easily have gone either way.

Prediction: Agnieszka Radwanska has a tough looking draw and I believe Petra Kvitova moves through the draw to the Semi Final

Gold Medal Winner
Much as I said about the Men's event, it is hard to overlook a player that has achieved it all in the game as a Singles player and one who should be fully motivated to pick up the last prize on the list of achievement players set out for at the beginning of their career.

Serena Williams, like Roger Federer, can only strengthen their position at the top of the Women's game and their place in history by winning this Gold Medal and I don't see too many players that are capable of beating her if I am honest, particularly not on the grass courts.

Williams will also be full of confidence having won at Wimbledon earlier this month and she will be my main pick from the Women's draw.

I'll also have an each-way interest on Petra Kvitova in the bottom half of the draw after her achievements at Wimbledon over the last three years- she has won the event, reached a Semi Final and a Quarter Final and has only been beaten by Serena Williams in those events.

In that time, Kvitova has knocked off Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka (twice), Tsvetana Pironkova and Caroline Wozniacki at Wimbledon, while also earning wins over Daniela Hantuchova and Agnieszka Radwanska on the grass courts.

That list of names is not to be ignored and I think the Czech player has been given a draw to work her way into the tournament and could be a real threat this time next week.


MY PICKS: Roger Federer @ 2.75 Paddy Power (4 Units)
Tomas Berdych @ 41.00 Boyle Sports (1 Unit E/W)
Serena Williams @ 2.80 Boyle Sports (4 Units)
Petra Kvitova @ 9.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)




Tennis Profit/Loss Recap

Daily Picks Final: 5-9, - 6.21 Units (22 Units Staked)

Outright Picks: - 2 Units (2 Units Staked)

Week Final: - 8.21 Units (24 Units Staked)

Season 2012: + 59.33 Units (654 Units Staked, 9.07% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

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