London Olympic Basketball Picks (July 29-August 12)

I am going to be using this one thread to collate the picks I make from the basketball at the Olympics in London.

First things first, I don't watch Women's basketball so I won't be making picks on a sport where I don't know anything about what is going on.

The second thing to point out is I won't try and look 'smart' by picking the United States to win the Gold Medal as even someone who has been living under a rock will be able to pick them as the winners.


July 29th
Brazil v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14596-Brazil-v-Australia.htm)

Great Britain v Russia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14597-Great-Britain-v-Russia.htm)

July 31st
Great Britain v Brazil Pick: I didn't have time for full previews due to work commitments, but I do like Brazil to cover the spread in this game with Great Britain.

Great Britain were fairly comfortably beaten by Russia in their first game and only kept things as close as they did because of very solid production on the offensive boards- I don't think they will be able to have the same dominance in this one due to the Brazilian size and I would be surprised if they have half as many offensive boards as they did in the first game.

The shooting from the field was actually pretty poor and that is not going to see them keep things close against a Brazilian team that has plenty of scoring power and I expect they will win by closer to 20 points in this one.

France v Argentina Pick: Argentina were probably the most impressive winners in the first set of games (outside of the USA who were favoured by 24 points anyway) and I think they are going to be a little too good for a France team that has a few injuries to be concerned with.

With Tony Parker being 34, he can't be expected to log long minutes when games are played every other day and I think the French don't have the same depth as Argentina and that may be the difference in this game.

I think Argentina are probably the third best team in the tournament and I think they will be able to win this game and put themselves in a very strong position to qualify from the group, most likely behind the USA, but that alone should give them a good chance to get into the Medal contention.

August 2nd
France v Lithuania Pick: France surprised many people, including me, with their win over Argentina last time out and that puts them in a very strong position to finish behind the United States in Group A and avoid having to play them again until the Final at the earliest.

That can be almost all but guaranteed if they can win this game as they will have Nigeria and Tunisia left to play, two matches the French will expect to win.

Lithuania are actually ranked at Number 5 in the World Rankings, but they haven't played that well so far and so are considered the dogs in this one. However, I do believe they are a better team than they have shown and I would be surprised if they are blown out as badly as they were in the first game against Argentina.

I expect this to be a close contest, so I will take the points and hope Lithuania show off their real ability in this game.

Argentina v Tunisia Pick: Argentina were the team surprised by France in the last set of games and I think that means they will come out fired up to make a point against Tunisia who look the weakest team in this Group.

The Argentines still have to play the United States, but they will want to build confidence with remaining games against Nigeria and Tunisia also on slate. As one of the Medal favourites at the start of the tournament, anything less than a Bronze will not be acceptable, but that means they need to finish in the top three places and avoid a tough looking match against Spain, the most likely winner of Group B.

Tunisia look a little overmatched when it comes to talent, but I am surprised that they are only given half the points that they were against the United States and they look worth opposing in this one.

Spain v Great Britain: Spain look the best of the teams in Group B and I think the may just take advantage of a Great Britain team that has to be emotionally fragile after coming so close to upsetting Brazil in their last game.

With just a day of rest between games, Great Britain may also be considering reserving some energy for their final two games against Australia and China, especially if they fall into an early hole in this one. To qualify from the Group, I expect Great Britain will need to beat both Australia and China and there is a chance that they are looking ahead to those games with this one coming in a letdown spot.

I am a touch concerned that Spain themselves are potentially looking ahead to their final two games against Russia and Brazil which will decide the winner of the Group and the opportunity to avoid the United States until the Final at the earliest, but they will know they cannot take their eye off the ball here and will look to maintain momentum.

Russia beat Great Britain by 20 points and I think Spain are going to match that so will back them to cover the spread.

August 8th
I was absolutely fuming after missing two of my last three picks by a combined 3 points and couldn't believe the way my luck had landed so held off until the Quarter Finals where the urgency should be greater in a 'play hard or go home' setting.

Russia v Lithuania Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14611-Russia-v-Lithuania.htm)

France v Spain Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14612-France-v-Spain.htm)

United States v Australia Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-14613-United-States-v-Australia.htm)

August 10th
I don't think I have ever been on a run of form where so many of the picks I have made have literally been beaten by so little... In fact, five of the picks that have fallen by the wayside have done by a combined 10 points and that is just bad luck and great work by the layers that have got the lines dead right.

With the way the Olympics have been, the layers have had the advantage in a competition like this, but it's the little things that have cost me- be that missed free throws once the cover looks certain to come in, meaningless buckets late or teams fouling into an against the spread loss, and there isn't a lot you can do about that except hope things fall the right way in the final four games.

Spain v Russia Pick: The first Semi Final has all the makings of a close one and I am a little surprised that Russia are being given as many points as they are... It is almost like the spread has been set as to how the game should go, but with little account of how these teams have played in the tournament so far.

Russia have looked good, while Spain have looked a little lethargic- whether they have just been saving themselves for this stage of the competition is up for debate, but I struggle to see how a team can just turn on the switch and play good basketball after having such a hard time over the last couple of weeks.

The three point shooting will be the key, but Russia have shown they can get that going and they have looked slightly better in defence of the two teams so taking the points looks the only sensible option for me (although they will probably lose by 6 on the nose with the way a lot of my picks have been going).

United States v Argentina Pick: The United States are really going to have to play some sloppy basketball if they are to fail to get the Gold Medal and I think they are going to be totally up for this Semi Final against the Argentinians and thus erase the memories, once and for all, of their Semi Final defeat at the same stage in Athens eight years ago.

The USA beat Argentina fairly comfortably in the Group Stage as they put a defensive clamp on them in the second half of that game before pulling away for the 29 point win. Too many players can get hot for the States that is hard to see how Argentina pull the surprise other than trying to hit a very high percentage of three pointers and then hope for a lot of luck.

The fight between some of the players in an exhibition game before the Olympics should have the United States fully motivated, something they didn't always show in the win over Australia, and that may allow them to replicate the Group game and win by more than 26 points in this one.


MY PICKS: 29/07 Brazil - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
29/07 Russia - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (2 Units)
31/07 Brazil - 11.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)
31/07 Argentina - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Lithuania + 6.5 Points @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
02/08 Argentina - 23.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
02/08 Spain - 17 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Lithuania + 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
08/08 Spain - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
08/08 United States - 33.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
10/08 Russia + 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
10/08 United States - 24.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)

Olympic Update: 2-8, - 12.46 Units