College Football National Championship Game Pick (January 11th)

The Bowl Picks worked out pretty well over the last month, but the College Football PlayOffs were another thing altogether.

One Pick I got completely wrong, while I was undone by a backdoor cover in the other. With the National Championship wrapping up the 2020 season, I am hoping for better.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Two blow out wins in the College Football PlayOff Semi Finals have taken the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes into the National Championship Game. Both teams are unbeaten, although the Crimson Tide knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a big favourite a couple of weeks ago.

Things were different for the Buckeyes who were an underdog against the Clemson Tigers, but rammed back taunts of not being considered in the top ten for best teams in the nation when crushing them. The Ohio State Buckeyes never looked like losing, let alone failing to cover, but the layers are not convinced that they will be able to keep up with the Crimson Tide who have looked like one of the stronger editions of what has become a regularly National Championship contender.

There are some factors at play which are hard to really gauge as to how important they could potentially become- the Buckeyes have had a number of Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the 2020 season and are rumoured to be suffering another which had some believing the Championship Game could have to be moved, but they are going to go on Monday as far as it sounds.

Ohio State have shown they can manage those outbreaks and not lose any momentum, but there is also the injury suffered by Quarter Back Justin Fields in the win over Clemson Tigers which may limit him. On the other hand you do have to wonder if the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time with a short season meaning they are heading towards the peak of the performance compared with the Alabama Crimson Tide who have already come through a number of very tough games to remain unbeaten.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 games this season compared with Ohio State's 7 games and so there is more wear and tear on their team, but Nick Saban is not going to be concerning himself about excuses nor giving Ohio State any bulletin board material like Dabo Swinney did before the Clemson Tigers were beaten very easily.

The injury to Justin Fields could be critical because there is a feeling he won't be able to run as much as he might have done if at full health. It did not slow him down against the Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide won't have to make in-game adjustments to Fields as they are likely going to anticipate him being at his best, but also planning for how they will defend against Fields if he is not at 100%.

I still think you have to respect Justin Fields who will be keen to remind people why he was considered one of the top two Quarter Backs coming out into the NFL Draft. Some have suggested he might have slipped behind Zach Wilson in the scouting reports, but Justin Fields can turn all that talk on its head with a strong performance in the National Championship Game even if the Buckeyes were to come up short.

As well as the Crimson Tide have played all season, we have seen the likes of Ole Miss and Florida have success throwing the ball down the field against this Secondary. Justin Fields has the talent around him to have success in this game too and I think there will be chances for the Buckeyes to move the ball, although Alabama will be well Coached and there is no less talent here that can make some big plays for the favourites.

Mobility is going to be the key for Fields as he looks to make sure he can stay away from the much respected Alabama pass rush that should be able to get through this Ohio State Offensive Line. If Justin Fields can at least move better than he looked like he could in the second half against the Clemson Tigers, it will be a big boost for Ohio State who will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage as the did against the Tigers.

After establishing the run in the manner they did against the Tigers, I have to give the Ohio State Offensive Line enough respect to think they could so the same against Alabama and that despite how strong the Crimson Tide Defensive Line has been up front. It could be all important to the outcome on this side of the ball as any one-dimensional Offense is going to have problems against Alabama, but Ohio State should be able to make this a competitive game.

The line of scrimmage is massively important on both sides of the ball, because the Buckeyes are coming in off a game in which they really forced Clemson to lean on Trevor Lawrence. Now Lawrence may be going into the NFL as the next great generational Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes were able to slow down the Tigers without the balance they would usually have relied upon and I think that is going to be very important for them here.

Alabama have quality talent throughout their skill positions and it is difficult to believe the Crimson Tide will see Najee Harris shut down completely, but I do think he will have to work for his yards. The question is whether I believe Ohio State can shut down the run to the extent they did against Clemson? Realistically I do not think that will happen with the talent Alabama have on their Offensive Line, but the fact I have to ask the question means it could see the Crimson Tide needing Mac Jones to loosen the line of scrimmage.

Mac Jones has played so well in 2020 and I do think some fans will have forgotten about Tua Tagovailoa, but no one is going to dispute the amount of talent he has to throw to. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy and the Wide Receiver looks like one that is going to have a huge impact at the next level, while Alabama may also be boosted by the return of Jaylen Waddle who has been listed as Questionable.

The Buckeyes Secondary has given up some big numbers throughout the season, but they have also been able to make big plays to turn momentum when they have needed to. One concern has to be the lack of consistent pass rush pressure and that may give Mac Jones the kind of time that will make Alabama very difficult to stop when you think of the kind of players he will be throwing to in this game.

I think Alabama will win this game, but you can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover.

Having more than a Touchdown of points with a team as good as Ohio State does look appealing and they are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games as the underdog. That includes winning outright against the Tigers in the College Football PlayOffs while Ohio State are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight post-season games.

I was undone by a backdoor cover when the Alabama Crimson Tide crushed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Crimson Tide have not covered in their last four National Championship Games.

However Alabama are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and I do think they are the superior team and won't underestimate Ohio State. I have a feeling that Clemson did that to some extent and motivated the Buckeyes by disrespecting them in the build up to that PlayOff Game, but Nick Saban won't do that and his team look to be stronger than Ohio State.

I expect the Buckeyes issues in the Secondary to be highlighted here and they may not have as much joy across the lines of scrimmage as they did against Clemson. Justin Fields may show why he is considered one of the top players coming out in the next NFL Draft, but Mac Jones has the talent around him to out-perform Fields and lead the Crimson Tide to another National Championship title.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

NFL Super Wild Card Round PlayOff Picks 2021 (January 9-10)

All credit has to be given to the NFL who have not only completed the seventeen weeks of the regular season, but have managed to do that without cancelling a single game.

It wasn't all plain-sailing with some Covid-19 outbreaks meaning the schedule had to be shifted around, while the Denver Broncos had to play one game with a Wide Receiver at Quarter Back after the entire QB unit was either testing positive or being in close contact with someone who had.

While I praise the NFL and the protocols they have placed, I do think this is not the time to allow complacency to set in- the NFL PlayOffs could be compromised if we have another Denver situation, while schedule changes are much more difficult with the post-season played over the next three weeks; ultimately a team will suffer if they are forced to win games midweek and then play another top NFL team days later in the Divisional Round or Championship Game.

That is something that is difficult to factor in, but Aaron Rodgers made the best comment to his Green Bay team-mates leaving for a mini-break and that was simply be responsible, look after yourselves and 'don't get Covid'.

We are now down to the final fourteen teams in the 2020 NFL season and the new PlayOff format means only the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will be enjoying a Bye over Super Wild Card Weekend. I think that is a real edge for those teams as they bid to reach the Super Bowl with home field advantage through the PlayOffs, although an upset is never that far away at this time of the season.

With the odds being released for Wild Card Weekend there will need to be some major upsets to prevent the top teams from making it through to the Divisional Round next weekend. My personal Ranking of the teams left in the PlayOffs has the likes of the Packers, Chiefs, New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills as those most likely to win the Super Bowl, although they are not that much further clear of the likes of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers to believe it will be an easy path for any of the teams looking to play into next month.

It should be a really fun weekend with the extra couple of games expanding the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs and there are some good games coming up. You can read my Picks below from the Saturday and Sunday offerings.

Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills Pick: The NFL PlayOffs are essentially a 'new season' and that is what all fourteen teams playing in the post-season will be feeling as the new Super Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs begin on Saturday. This looks like one of the better games on deck as the Buffalo Bills prepare to host the Indianapolis Colts and snap their long wait for a PlayOff win which stretches back twenty-six years.

There is going to be a pressure on the Bills with that long run without a PlayOff win hanging over their heads, but Josh Allen and the rest of the team have really shown another improvement on their 2019 form. The Quarter Back in particular has impressed, but Allen will know that he is going to be judged on how he plays in the post-season and whether he can show growth from last year when the Bills were beaten by the Houston Texans.

The Bills blew a big lead in that loss to the Texans and they were eventually undone in Overtime, but it was also a game played on the road. Finishing as the Number 2 Seed means the Bills are in control of playing the next two PlayOff Games at home as long as they can win on Wild Card Weekend.

Buffalo have lost their last six PlayOff Games, but the last four have been on the road and this Bills team is giving off a different vibe having won six games in a row going into the PlayOffs. They have shown a huge Offensive output which has helped the Defensive unit close out games, but they won't be taking anything for granted when the Indianapolis Colts come to town having won four of their last five games.

There has to be a 'nothing to lose' attitude from the Colts who needed the Bills beating the Miami Dolphins and then beating the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 17 to enter the PlayOffs. There is experience here through Head Coach Frank Reich and Quarter Back Philip Rivers, but the feeling is that the Colts need a bit of luck to break their way if they are going to work their way through the post-season towards the Super Bowl.

Some suggestions have been made that the Indianapolis Colts will be moving on from Rivers at Quarter Back at the end of this season regardless of how things go in the PlayOffs and some believe they could be in for Carson Wentz of the Philadelphia Eagles. Philip Rivers himself has admitted that he is not sure whether he will play another NFL season after this one comes to an end and the competitor in him will want to go out on a high.

He will be looking to lean on the Indianapolis Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor at Running Back which has been the key for the Colts in getting into the post-season. Taylor had a huge game in Week 17 and the Colts Offensive Line have been able to open up some considerable holes in recent games, while they will be confident in doing that against the Buffalo Defensive Line which has given up almost 5 yards per carry across their last three games.

While the game is close I certainly think the Colts will have success running the ball and that will be key for the underdog who will want to keep the powerful Buffalo Offense on the sidelines for as long as possible in cold conditions. It is very important for Indianapolis to also keep the Offensive unit in front of the chains and thus giving Philip Rivers the best chance to have a big outing at Quarter Back as he looks to help lead the upset.

The Indianapolis Offensive Line has not been as effective in pass protection as they have in run blocking and so again it is important for the Colts to stay with the Bills as long as possible. Philip Rivers will want to avoid having to throw too many times into the Buffalo Secondary, which has improved down the stretch compared with their overall season form.

Throwing the ball could be a potential problem for the Colts, but they will also have serious concerns about defending the pass against Josh Allen. The Buffalo Bills have seen Josh Allen come on leaps and bounds in 2020 despite a mini-slump during the course of the season, and they have also surrounded the Quarter Back with some huge talents that have helped in the development of the young player.

Josh Allen has found a chemistry with Stefon Diggs, but the likes of John Brown, Dawson Knox and Gabriel Davis have all shown they can step up for the Bills in the passing game too. Injuries have slowed the Indianapolis Colts down the stretch and the Secondary have given up over 300 yards per game through the air in their last three games against Jacksonville, Pittsburgh and Houston.

I have no doubt that Josh Allen is able to maintain that kind of number against this Secondary as he has helped the Bills average over 350 yards per game through the air down the stretch. Buffalo have not been afraid to come out and throw the ball all over the field to put the pressure on their opponents and I think it will be difficult for the Colts to slow them down, especially with the Buffalo Offensive Line likely able to give Allen some time.

The Colts have been able to bring the pass rush pressure, but Buffalo will feel their Offensive Line can keep the pocket clean enough. Add in Josh Allen's ability to scramble around and move the ball with his legs and I do think Buffalo will be confident the passing lanes will open up for them on the Offensive side of the ball.

In recent games Buffalo also found a groove when it came to running the ball, but the Colts Defensive Line have been stout up front. The Quarter Back's ability to reach First Down markers with his legs may make it a touch more difficult for Indianapolis on the ground, while any Secondary struggles will also open the running lanes as players are sent into coverage to slow the Bills down through the air.

I've really liked the Indianapolis Colts this season and how they have been built, but I do think there have been some signs that they have been worn down over a long season. Philip Rivers was once a top Quarter Back, but I am not sure he will be able to compete in a shoot out with the younger and fresher Josh Allen who looks to have found a really good rhythm at Quarter Back.

It might be tense at times, which is down to the long absence of winning a PlayOff Game, but I think Buffalo will find the big plays in the passing game which will force Indianapolis to take to the air to keep up. Ultimately I am not sure Rivers can do that at this stage of his career and I like the Buffalo Bills to continue their strong covering ability, the mark of a very good team.

Buffalo are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the home favourite and they have covered the spread in their last eight games down the stretch. I do have to admit I really admire Frank Reich and the Head Coach does have the Colts playing competitively, but they are 1-3-1 against the spread in their last five games as the road underdog.

The Colts are not used to being the underdog and so they may use that as motivation to 'show their critics' but I think there is too much Buffalo Offensive firepower which leads to a win by a Touchdown.

Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: In Week 17 the Los Angeles Rams were able to end the season for one of their NFC West rivals and they will be looking to do the same on Super Wild Card Weekend when travelling to the Seattle Seahawks. These two teams shared out a win apiece in the regular season, but the Seahawks have got home field advantage having ended the year with the Number 3 Seed and with positive injury news meaning they could be going into the post-season at full strength.

There was also better news for the Los Angeles Rams this week as it looks like Jared Goff is on course to return at Quarter Back for the road team. The Rams have reached the Super Bowl with Goff at Quarter Back before and his return means John Wolford will return to a backup role for Los Angeles despite leading the win over the Cardinals in Week 17.

John Wolford was massively helped by the Defensive unit, while Jared Goff will likely need the same level of support as the Rams have struggled Offensively for some weeks. The Quarter Back will be making his return against the Seattle Seahawks who he was facing when he fractured his thumb, but I do think the Los Angeles Rams will be comfortable with their chances in the PlayOffs.

The Rams had lost two in a row before finishing the regular season with a victory over the Arizona Cardinals, but there is a feeling that they can have considerably more Offensive success against this Seattle Defense than they did when they met last month. On that occasion Los Angeles were only able to muster up 9 points, but both teams struggled to move the ball with consistency so there is going to be some pressure on Jared Goff if he does get rewarded with the start.

Most will be interested to see who Sean McVay picks as his starting Quarter Back, but there are a couple of key performers who need to be cleared on this side of the ball. Andrew Whitworth is hoping to be able to play on the Los Angeles Offensive Line and Jamal Adams is adamant he will play for the Seattle Seahawks at Safety and both players are very important for their respective teams.

An improvement in the Seattle Defensive Line's performances against the run have been critical for the Seahawks producing four wins in a row to end the season and clinch the NFC West Division. It has come at an important time as the Seahawks Offense has not really found the groove they had earlier this season and it will be up to Seattle to try and win at the line of scrimmage to take control of this game.

You know Sean McVay will look for ways to get the Rams moving even if the run is stopped and that may be by employing short passes, screens or Wide Receiver screens to try and stay in front of the sticks and give Jared Goff the best chance for success. John Wolford showed off his ability to run the ball last week in the win over the Cardinals and if he starts at Quarter Back it may give the Rams Offense another crease, but I do think Los Angeles will struggle for consistency running the ball as they did when the teams met in this Stadium last month.

The more important question for the Rams has to be whether they can get more from the passing game which was not able to expose the holes that have opened up in the Seattle Secondary all season. There have been some obvious signs of improvement from the Seahawks who tend to be a 'bend, don't break' Defensive unit, but even then you would expect any Quarter Back to have more success than the Rams enjoyed against Seattle in their most recent meeting.

It will be interesting to see if Whitworth is up to speed on the Offensive Line because he will be facing a Seattle pass rush which has come alive in recent weeks. They will be looking to force Goff or Wolford to throw the ball much more quickly than they would like and it will also aid the Secondary in being able to make a few stops in this one.

Stopping the run will be something the Seahawks will feel they can do, but I really think the Los Angeles Rams Defensive Line is the best of the Lines along the trenches. In recent games Seattle have been able to get Chris Carson, Carlos Hyde going, while Russell Wilson is capable as a runner too, but the Seahawks did not have much success on the ground against the Rams in their last meeting and there is little to suggest they will have a lot more in this one.

However, one positive is that the Seahawks Offensive Line looks like it could be as healthy as it has been in several weeks and that may be good news for Russell Wilson. After opening up with massive MVP credentials, Wilson has come off the boil as his protection has weakened and the game plan has perhaps been adjusted to establish the ground game.

Russell Wilson will need all the protection he can get against this Rams Defensive Line led by Aaron Donald and it is the extended time that may see him find a way to exploit the Rams Secondary. Jalen Ramsey has been playing at an incredibly high level and will feel he can lock down DK Metcalf again barring the Seahawks moving the big Receiver to different spots in the field where Ramsey may not follow, but Tyler Lockett is a big threat for Seattle.

The Quarter Back situation definitely feels like it is giving the Seahawks and edge and you can't discount a team that has won every home PlayOff Game under Pete Carroll. If Jared Goff was at 100% I do think the Rams could cause problems, but Seattle look to be playing with confidence and momentum and that can roll over into this game.

The home team has won the last five games between these Divisional rivals and Seattle won by 11 points when hosting the Rams last month.

Los Angeles are just 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games in Seattle and I do think the Seahawks will be able to get one or two big plays from Russell Wilson which helps them win this game and cover the number.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team Pick: Most fans have been pretty down on the NFC East this season and there were plenty out there making it clear that winning the Number 5 Seed in the NFC was effectively going to mean an easy win on Wild Card Weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers locked that up and they are considered big favourites to beat the Washington Football Team who might have been thankful to Doug Pederson in securing the NFC East Division title in Week 17.

Washington had to win at Philadelphia to win the Division, but the game was very, very competitive going into the Fourth Quarter before Eagles Head Coach Doug Pederson decided he would put in what is effectively a third string Quarter Back. Unsurprisingly things went pear shaped for the Eagles from there and the decision drew the ire of the New York Giants who missed out on a PlayOff spot.

Ron Rivera won't care how his team got into the PlayOffs and the Head Coach has shown he can motivate teams to play above their level in one off games before. His 7 win Carolina Panthers team won the NFC South in the 2014 NFL season and that team were able to upset the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals at home in the Wild Card Round of the PlayOffs.

There are similarities here as his 7 win Washington team face an 11 win Tampa Bay team on Saturday evening, but Ron Rivera will be reminding his players that every team begins at 0-0 in the PlayOffs. A bigger concern for the Head Coach seems to be getting Quarter Back Alex Smith as healthy as possible and Rivera did admit that he would have loved to have been given one of the Sunday slots this Wild Card Weekend to give his veteran player as much time to recover as possible.

Over the course of the season you would think the Quarter Back would be the best chance for Washington to earn the upset, but down the stretch the Buccaneers Defensive Line did begin to struggle when it comes to stopping the run. The overall numbers remained strong, but the Buccaneers have given up 4.4 yards per carry across their last three games and it is only the points being scored by the Tampa Bay Offense which may have forced opponents to have to move away from the run.

The Football Team will be hoping Antonio Gibson is going to be healthier than he looked last week as he remains the premier Running Back on the roster and it will be important for Washington to run the ball. Controlling the clock is important and it may also benefit Alex Smith who should have success throwing against the Tampa Bay Defense.

It is also important to run the ball to help the Washington Offensive Line when it comes to protecting Alex Smith as it could just slow down the Tampa Bay pass rush for long enough to allow him to make some plays. Last week the Eagles were able to get a lot of pressure on Smith throughout the game which has meant the Quarter Back has been nursing some injuries over the week, but the Football Team may feel they can at least have a touch more consistency behind their Offensive unit.

Scoring enough points to be competitive won't be easy for Washington if Tampa Bay continue to play as they have been with Tom Brady leading the way. The suggestion is that Mike Evans will be ready to go having come out of the Week 17 win over the Atlanta Falcons, and that means Brady will have some talented Receivers to make plays for him.

On the face of things you would think the Buccaneers are able to have considerable success throwing the ball, but the Washington pass Defense has been the strength of the team and the reason they have made the PlayOffs. Much of that is down to the front four who have some extremely talented youngsters leading the way and it will be the pressure on Tom Brady which will be key to slowing down the Buccaneers.

In the past we have seen Tom Brady rattled by teams who can get an intense about of pass rush player with limited numbers rushing him and that is something that fits this Washington Defensive Line to a tee. Chase Young is the headline name, but there is talent across the line and I do think they will be able to at least give the Football Team a chance of the upset.

A lot will come down to that battle as any time being given to Brady will result in his classy Receivers finding spaces to exploit. It is also hard to really believe in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette can establish the run to the point where they slow down the Football Team pass rush and I do think this Defensive Line will be able to keep this game close.

While Tampa Bay have been strong against the spread in the last few weeks, Washington have to be respected having gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games as the underdog.

The Buccaneers are the more likely winners as I am not entirely sure that Washington can score enough points to secure the upset, but Tom Brady is 0-4 against the spread in late primetime slots this season. This is the same slot the Buccaneers have on Saturday night and in the past it is those teams with fearsome Defensive Lines that have been able to give Brady some trouble and I will look for Washington to remain within the number set.

I will expect the Football Team to be highly motivated by the oddsmakers line for this game and that disrespect coupled with their Head Coach's experience of overcoming the odds in the Wild Card Round is important here. Ron Rivera's Carolina Panthers actually beat Bruce Arians that season in the Wild Card Round too and I think Rivera may get the better of Arians when it comes to this spread too.

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans Pick: A five game winning run has helped turn the Baltimore Ravens season around after it looked like they may have missed out on a PlayOff spot at 6-5. There is a confidence that this team is peaking at the right time and they have a chance to earn some revenge for the Divisional Round loss to the Tennessee Titans at home last year.

The Titans are back in the post-season, but this time they go in as the AFC South Division Winners and that means they will be hosting at least one PlayOff Game. Last year the Titans managed to reach the AFC Championship Game and led against eventual Super Bowl Champions Kansas City, while road wins at New England and Baltimore will mean this Titans team has plenty of experience to fall back upon.

What they don't have is a very good Defensive unit and I do think that has to be a major concern for Tennessee entering the PlayOffs this season. You can't expect to beat some of the best teams in the NFL with a team who literally can't stop anyone on the other side of the ball, but the Titans have managed to somehow win 11 games including three of their last four to secure the AFC South.

I do think there is a chance for Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens to move the ball with some consistency in this big PlayOff Game and I would be disappointed if the Quarter Back is not able to have a big outing. There is some pressure on Jackson which he will acknowledge himself and that is down to losing both PlayOff Games that he has started for the Baltimore Ravens including the upset defeat to Tennessee as a double digit favourite last season.

However this game looks like a good chance for Jackson to have success both with his legs and with his arm- the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to stop teams running through them throughout the season, while the Secondary has been exposed by injuries and very little pass rush pressure generated up front.

Lamar Jackson is able to run the ball himself, but he will be well supported by JK Dobbins who has taken over as the main Running Back for the Baltimore Ravens. Both should be able to keep the Ravens in front of the chains and earn some big gains on the ground and that should open the door for the Quarter Back to hit his Receivers Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown down the field for some big plays.

The Ravens should have a very good balance Offensively which makes them very dangerous, but this should be anything but a one-sided game. While Baltimore will expect to dominate behind their Offensive Line, the Titans will also believe they have an Offensive Line which is going to be able to rip open some huge holes for what many may consider to be the best Running Back in the NFL.

Everyone knows that the Titans want to establish Derrick Henry early and often, but that has not made it any easier to stop a Back who has put up over 2000 yards on the ground this season. I do wonder if that will catch up with him as we enter the PlayOffs, but Henry smashed the Houston Texans in Week 17 and looks to be getting stronger as Defensive Lines begin to get banged up down the stretch.

Derrick Henry is the key and he will be keen to get after the Baltimore Defensive Line which has allowed teams to produce 5 yards per carry on average in their last three games. Those have been against weak teams, but the Titans are anything but a weak Offense and I do think Henry will open things up for Ryan Tannehill.

The Quarter Back is capable of making plays with his legs when teams focus in on Derrick Henry, but the big question for Ryan Tannehill is whether he can make enough plays with his arm to keep the Ravens from crowding the line of scrimmage. Ryan Tannehill has really played well for the Titans since taking over as the starting Quarter Back, and I am not going to put a lot of stock into the recent Baltimore performances when it comes to defending the pass.

Baltimore have simply not played very good Offenses as they have put the wins together and I do think the likes of AJ Brown and Corey Davis can win battles on the outside to give Ryan Tannehill options in the passing game. The Ravens may have better balance Offensively, but the Titans are likely going to feel pretty good about the way they can move the ball and they have to be motivating themselves with feelings that people still don't believe in them.

Over the last twelve months they have upset the Ravens twice on the road, yet here the Titans are set as the home underdog and a relatively big one too. The line doesn't make much sense to me if I am being honest, and I was expecting this to perhaps be a pick 'em with the feeling that Baltimore are going to be a team that is publicly backed.

In reality I do think the Titans have matched up well with the Ravens and they can perhaps win this game outright, but I will look to take the points on offer.

You may have to take a shorter price to go through the key number 3, but I think that would be very important with this game likely to end with a Field Goal win either way.

There are some strong trends favouring the Baltimore Ravens, but I do think Mike Vrabel will get the very best out of the Titans with the 'no one believes in us' line likely to have been used over and over this past week. The Titans look to be underrated here and I think they can be backed with the points being given to them.

Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints Pick: Teams that won at least 10 games missed out on the PlayOffs on the AFC side of the bracket, but the 8-8 Chicago Bears are one of two teams without a winning record that are playing on the NFC side. They held their own destiny in their hands in Week 17, but the blow out loss to the Green Bay Packers meant the Bears were thankful to the Los Angeles Rams who beat the Arizona Cardinals.

That might mean the Bears can enter the post-season with a 'nothing to lose' attitude as all teams begin at 0-0, but they are going to need to be a lot better if they are going to progress any further.

And while the majority of players may feel it is a bonus to be playing in the PlayOffs after a poor stretch in the middle of the regular season, the likes of Head Coach Matt Nagy and Quarter Back Mitchell Trubisky have to show they are capable of taking the Bears forward in the months ahead. I do think the PlayOff spot means the Head Coach will remain in charge, but Trubisky's position at Quarter Back remains unsure and an early loss in the PlayOffs coupled with the blow out defeat in Week 17 to the Packers will have many believing the Bears should look for a new signal caller.

This does feel a very difficult match up for Trubisky with the New Orleans Saints Defensive unit continuing to play at a high level and I think it may be one that underlines the belief that the Bears need to look elsewhere when it comes to the Quarter Back position. During a strong end to the season Mitchell Trubisky has been able to lean on the Chicago Offensive Line which has opened up some big holes for David Montgomery, but the Saints Defensive Line have been capable up front and that will mean the pressure is all on Trubisky.

He struggled against the Green Bay Secondary which is a strong one, but Mitchell Trubisky can't hope to have a lot more success against this Saints Secondary which is talented. They will be looking for the pass rush pressure to get around Trubisky and force him into some poor decisions, but Chicago have to hope their Receivers can stand up for their beleaguered Quarter Back and at least give him a chance to make some plays.

While the game is close the Bears will be able to run the ball and try and control the clock, but things change dramatically if New Orleans are able to move a couple of scores ahead. The last couple of weeks has seen Drew Brees improving as he continues his recovery from a rib injury, but he will also be boosted by some key returns this week.

Alvin Kamara has been taken off the Covid-19 list and he should be available with the entire Running Back corps who missed out in Week 17, while the passing game will benefit from the return of Michael Thomas who has had an injury hit season. In Thomas' absence, New Orleans have found a couple of other Receivers to make plays for Drew Brees and I think the addition of their top Wide Receiver will make the Saints very dangerous.

Holes up front on the Chicago Defensive Line have allowed teams to establish the run against them and I do think Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray will be able to have strong performances running the ball. The Saints Offensive Line have been very strong both when it comes to run blocking and pass protection so the feeling is that the Saints will be able to move the ball with a lot more consistency than the Chicago Bears.

As strong as the Chicago Bears Defensive unit has been, there is an opportunity to attack the Secondary and Drew Brees still looks to have enough to be successful in this game.

I do have to be concerned with the way the Saints have seen their recent seasons ended in the PlayOffs with upsets and some miracle plays going against them. That make the number look very big on the spread on Super Wild Card Weekend, but the Saints looks considerably stronger with the likes of Kamara and Thomas back, while the Chicago Bears have been fortunate to reach the PlayOffs.

The Saints are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games as the favourite and double digit favourites in the PlayOffs are 7-1 against the spread going back to 2011.

We have seen the Chicago Bears struggle to be competitive as a big underdog and they are 0-4 against the spread when given 6 or more points over the last two seasons. The Bears are also 6-18 against the spread in their last twenty-four games when coming off a double digit loss at home and I think the Saints will have too much Offensive firepower here as they move into the Divisional Round of the PlayOffs.

Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: A number of starters were rested for the Week 17 game at the Cleveland Browns, but the Pittsburgh Steelers almost came close to the upset which may have knocked the Browns out of the PlayOffs. There was every chance that the Steelers were going to have to host Cleveland again in the Super Wild Card Round so the decision to rest key starters looks like being a good one by Mike Tomlin who knows anything less than a place in the Divisional Round will make this a disappointing season.

The Steelers have lost some momentum with four losses in their last five games, but they did finish with the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and will believe having some of their better players resting last week will really benefit them.

That also means Pittsburgh would have kept some of their Offensive plays under wraps for this Wild Card Game, but the same cannot be said for the Cleveland Browns who had to dig deep to beat the Steelers last week. It has snapped a long wait to return to the PlayOffs for the Browns, but they are considerable underdogs this week.

It has been a difficult week for the Cleveland Browns who will be without their Head Coach and a number of other players through positive Covid-19 tests. Olivier Vernon suffered an injury which means his season is over and the Browns are going to be challenged by this Steelers team who have had a number of their own players return with the additional time to recover.

Joe Haden will be missing in the Secondary, but the Browns will be looking to lean on Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt rather than first time PlayOff Quarter Back Baker Mayfield. Both Chubb and Hunt have played well behind a powerful Cleveland Offensive Line and they should have some success establishing the run against a Pittsburgh Defensive Line which has given up some big plays on the ground throughout the season.

Teams have had to focus on establishing the run to loosen up the Pittsburgh pass Defense, but that has been difficult all season. There is a considerable pass rush the Steelers are able to generate and even the injury to Bud Dupree has not slowed down the pressure up front, and it could be hard for Cleveland to keep Baker Mayfield upright if he needs to move the chains from third and long spots.

As long as the game is close the Browns will feel good about their chances of moving the ball, but they won't be looking for Baker Mayfield to have to put the game on his shoulders. The Quarter Back has been inconsistent behind the Offensive Line and Mayfield has shown some inaccuracy which could be a real problem against this strong Pittsburgh Secondary.

Much seems to depend on how competitive the Browns can keep the game, but I do think the rest will help Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Offensive unit to get back on track. Earlier this season we saw the veteran Quarter Back playing at a very good level and I do think he will have benefited from having two weeks between games having not had a Bye Week during the course of the regular season.

There are some talented Receivers that the Steelers can look to and the return of Eric Ebron is another huge boost for the entire Offense. Injuries and positive tests look to have hurt the Cleveland Secondary and I do think Roethlisberger is going to have a strong outing which can help take the game away from the Browns.

Even Mason Rudolph was able to have some success against Cleveland last week and the Pittsburgh Offensive Line looks strong and capable of giving Big Ben as much time as he needs. With the Receivers looking like they have rediscovered a way of holding onto the ball rather than having the drops that were blighting them a few weeks ago, I think the Steelers will be able to move the ball through the air with consistency and strong success.

For much of the season the Steelers have leant on Ben Roethlisberger at Quarter Back and that is because Pittsburgh have not been able to establish the run as they would have liked. The Steelers Offensive Line has struggled to open holes for James Connor or Benny Snell, and I think they are unlikely to get much joy from the Cleveland Defensive Line.

With that in mind I think we will see Pittsburgh looking to throw the ball around and I do think the conditions will allow Roethlisberger to do that.

I like the Steelers to win and cover this final Wild Card Game and that is largely because I feel they are going to have too much Offensive power for the Browns to stay with them. Baker Mayfield is a first time PlayOff Quarter Back and those players have tended to struggle in their debut start in the post-season, while the Browns have a poor 1-4-1 record against the spread in their last six games at Heinz Field.

The Steelers have a 7-2 record against the spread in their last nine at home, while the Browns have an awful record on the road and as an underdog. Cleveland have some important players missing and I think Pittsburgh look healthier at this stage of the season which will give them the edge and the ability to put up enough points to cover the mark.

Cleveland struggled when playing against their AFC North rivals in the regular season and their poor record in Pittsburgh is likely to be extended here.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Seattle Seahawks - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New Orleans Saints - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 6 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2021 (January 6th)

What a difference a year makes.

This time last year it was full steam ahead to the first Grand Slam of the 2020 Tennis season, but that was before the scale of the impending pandemic was really clear to see. Back then many must have felt Covid-19 was going to go the same way as some of the other viruses that have popped over the last twenty years in not being able to spread in the manner it has and Tennis, like many other sports, was severely pushed to the limit.

Unlike some other sports, this really is a global one and the manner of the Tour meant in an inevitable suspension and then a host of tournaments looking to try and fill the gaps that were left on the calendar. Wimbledon was the sole Grand Slam that was not played, but the US Open and French Open being played within a month of one another was strange to see as well as the fact that the latter was played at a time of the year when conditions are vastly different to the usual May/June spot on the calendar.

Everyone's life is still being affected by the pandemic and the Tennis Tour is no different going into 2021 which has seen both the ATP and WTA Tour having to make big changes to the schedule. Usually January is a busy month leading into the Australian Open, but that tournament has been pushed back to early February and quarantine requirements in Australia means the vast majority of events have been cancelled this month.

This week we have a big WTA tournament in Abu Dhabi and the ATP Tour have put a one-off tournament in Antalya and moved Delray Beach forward for players to take part. The big names are largely missing as they prepare to travel to Australia where we are going to get a couple of tournaments in Melbourne and the ATP Cup before the Australian Open is due to begin on February 8th.

Both Tours have set out how they are going to schedule events through to the clay court season in early April, but at this stage there is no guarantee to know how anything will shake up in the weeks and months ahead.

There is a hope the Grand Slams will all be played in their traditional spots outside of the Australian Open, but I think the situation is going to be a fluid one for all the organisers to deal with.

The Tennis Picks were obviously not as common in 2020 as they had been previously and that was largely down to the uncertainty that was created by the Covid-19 outbreak. I actually went to the Dubai Final last year, but I would have been stunned if anyone was to have told me that would be the last Tennis match for months on end.

It was a difficult year for the Tennis Picks having had a number of winning seasons and I do think this will be a relatively slow month for selections despite the strong tournament being run by the WTA in Abu Dhabi. After that we have some time before the first of the Melbourne events take place and then the focus will quickly shift to the Australian Open when I will be expecting to have daily Picks.

While the men's tournaments are still expected to be dominated by the Big Three, the likes of Dominic Thiem and Daniil Medvedev may consider themselves genuine Grand Slam challengers. The Austrian won his first Slam at the US Open and was a Finalist at the Australian Open and I think he can push the likes of Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal, although I expect both of those to be favourites in all of the Grand Slams barring injury.

The WTA Tour has long been very competitive and I am still quite convinced that Serena Williams may have missed her best chance to overtake Margaret Court in number of Singles Slams won- she may still have one more big effort in her, but Williams has lost her aura and there are some very good players on the Tour who can beat her on any given day, but consistency is lacking which means we could get a number of different Slam Champions yet again.

Talented youngsters will be looking to make a mark alongside some veterans who will feel they can add to the Grand Slams won, while Naomi Osaka is a three time Slam Champion that can only keep improving at 23 years old.

I am looking forward to what should be a stronger year back on the Tour for the Tennis players with positive news about a vaccine for Covid-19 that likely will begin to heal the world, albeit slowly.

I do think the next couple of months will be very difficult for the players, but it is something they will have begun to understand and plan for better than they could have done back in March when the Tour was suspended. They will still have to face a difficult two week quarantine when arriving in Australia and I am not sure what the conditions will be for the players when they are leaving Melbourne and heading off to other tournaments which have been scheduled to be played later in February and early March.

These are ever changing factors at the moment and something that will only be revealed closer to the time of those events once we have an idea as to the direction this pandemic is going to be taking around the world.

The First Round matches are beginning in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and my opening two selections of the 2021 season are below.

MY PICKS: Anett Kontaveit - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Laura Siegemund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

NFL Week 17 Picks 2020 (January 3rd)

All credit has to be given to the NFL for making it through to Week 17 of the regular season with little impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the games being played.

There have been moments, but the fact that no games have been cancelled is a testimony to the protocols put in place, although no one should take it for granted that the PlayOffs will go smoothly just because the last seventeen weeks have largely gone to plan.

Week 17 used to be a pretty boring one in the regular season, but changes to the scheduling has meant more Divisional Games have been placed in this week to make it more appealing. Add in the new NFL PlayOff format and there is plenty to achieve for many teams in Week 17 before we go into the first six game Wild Card Round in NFL history next weekend.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: We have reached that time of the NFL season when you have to consider the motivation of teams and players with the post-season and the end of the season in sight. Much depends on how the season has gone, but this is a game between two NFC South Divisional rivals which will bring its own motivations to the table.

The Atlanta Falcons know their season is coming to an end and the fan base might be hoping the team don't ruin their current Draft position by winning what is effectively a meaningless game. At the moment the 4-11 record will be good enough for a top four Draft position later on in the year and the fans can't even hope to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have secured their spot in the post-season.

The Buccaneers hold a 10-5 record and will be playing on the road on Wild Card Weekend, but they are currently the Number 5 Seed which means they will face the NFC East Champions who look like being the weakest of the home teams that are due to play next weekend. Securing that spot has to be important for Tampa Bay who will be looking to enter the post-season with some momentum as they look to become the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl in their home Stadium.

Bruce Arians does love seeing his teams throw the ball down the field, but we are heading into January and Tampa Bay need to find a way to run the ball better than they have been. Ronald Jones could be back for the Buccaneers, but this may be another tough outing for the Buccaneers Offensive Line which has been much stronger in pass protection than run blocking.

They are not likely to enjoy a lot of success against the Atlanta Defensive Line which has continued to play hard up front, but Tampa Bay will be comfortable with Tom Brady at Quarter Back especially if he is still playing in what is largely going to be a clean pocket. Many know the only way to rattle Brady is by getting him to feel the pass rush pressure, but it is not likely to be the case against the Falcons and I expect his Wide Receivers and Tight Ends to win their one on one battles and exploit the Atlanta Secondary.

Tom Brady and company should have no problem throwing the ball and Mike Evans is likely to have a big game as he will be targeted early and often.

It will mean there is some pressure on the Falcons to try and keep up on the scoreboard and that is a big challenge when there is nothing to really achieve for the players. Changes are likely coming with a new Head Coach expected to be hired and that might have players thinking ahead, while Julio Jones is not going to be risked as he looks for a healthier 2021.

Matt Ryan has to be wondering what the future holds for him at Quarter Back, but he may be asked to have at least one more big game if the Falcons are going to stay competitive. It is unlikely that Ryan will be given a lot of support from the run game which means he is going to have to drop back and take risks throwing into an improving Tampa Bay Secondary.

There are some spaces for him to exploit, I have no doubt about that, but Matty Ice does not have anything near the same protection as Tom Brady is going to enjoy at Quarter Back. The Falcons Offensive Line have not been able to keep Ryan upright and now they will be facing a Tampa Bay pass rush which has plenty of talent getting after the Quarter Back and I do think it will be a major factor in the outcome of this one.

I do have to respect the fact that the Falcons have performed well as the road underdog and they do have a Quarter Back capable of strong drives to keep this one close and perhaps even sneak through the back door. However I think the Week 17 situation may see Tampa Bay have too much as they look to close out the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and I will back them to cover the line as it remains under a key number.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This Week 17 game does not mean very much to the Pittsburgh Steelers who have a 12-3 record, but who suffered a three game losing run last month which meant the Number 1 Seed was out of reach. They are confirmed in finishing either with the Number 2 or the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and the change in the PlayOff format means the Steelers will be playing as a host on Wild Card Weekend whether finishing second or third in the standings.

An unexpected cancellation of a game during the regular season meant the Steelers have had to play without a Bye Week in 2020 and so it is perhaps not a surprise that Mike Tomlin has elected to give his starters some rest. It has already been announced that Mason Rudolph will be playing at Quarter Back instead of Ben Roethlisberger and that is going to be a major storyline going into Week 17.

The last time Rudolph started against the Cleveland Browns in this Stadium it ended in a brawl and multiple suspensions in 2019, but both teams are playing things down and that is important for the Browns who need to produce a win.

A surprising loss to the New York Jets on a day when the Receivers were all isolating means Cleveland are still looking to lock up a PlayOff spot despite reaching ten wins already in 2020. The situation is in their own control as a win would be enough, but a defeat would leave the fans scrambling to hear how Indianapolis and the other teams around them are getting on.

Cleveland can't think too far ahead and they are expecting to have those missing Receivers back while also benefiting from the fact that the Steelers are not going to be playing their starters. There is every chance the Browns will be heading to Pittsburgh for the Wild Card Round and so they won't want to give too much away, but the team will also be aware that they can't afford to hold too much back and somehow miss the post-season.

With the expected changes that the Steelers are going to make, Cleveland should be able to have a relatively comfortable day moving the ball. The Pittsburgh schemes will make them solid enough Defensively, but ultimately they will likely be playing second and third string players and that should mean the Browns are able to move the ball and score enough points to win this one.

More importantly I do struggle to see how Pittsburgh will move the ball with any consistency as Mason Rudolph has proven to be little more than a backup. He really struggled to throw the ball against the Browns Secondary in their game last year and I do think Rudolph is going to have problems with the key Pittsburgh Receivers sitting down.

It is a very big spread, but Cleveland beat Pittsburgh by 14 points when facing Mason Rudolph last year. I think the Browns are going to use the motivation of facing a disliked Quarter Back to really rally them for this game as they look to lock down a PlayOff spot.

The Steelers have been a very good road underdog to back against the spread, but I think it will be hard to stay focused with the back ups out there. The Browns may need to stop a couple of late drives to avoid a backdoor cover and are likely to use vanilla Offensive play-calling if they get into a healthy lead which is a concern, but they should be able to win this one fairly comfortably on the day.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: At 6-5 the Baltimore Ravens had to be wondering if they were going to reach the PlayOffs, but a run of four straight wins means they have control of their own destiny. Beating the Cincinnati Bengals will be enough to secure the Ravens a spot in the Wild Card Round next weekend, but a defeat means they will be needing to work out the permutations to determine whether Baltimore will be playing more Football this season.

At this stage no one associated with the Ravens are going to be wondering about what happens if they lose- simply put Baltimore will feel they have more than enough to beat a banged up Bengals team despite the fact Cincinnati have won two in a row.

One of those was an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers so the Bengals will need to be highly respected by the Ravens, although I do think Baltimore match up better than the Steelers. The main reason for that is while Pittsburgh have struggled to run the ball consistently, Baltimore have three players who have all had at least 600 yards on the ground this season and the Ravens Offensive Line should control this game.

It has been an issue for Cincinnati to stop the run and I don't think they are going to have much joy in this one. Lamar Jackson is capable of doing plenty of damage with his legs, but he has also shown improvements throwing down the field and with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown I do expect the Quarter Back to have success throughout this game whether running or throwing the ball.

With little pressure being generated by the Browns, Baltimore should have their way Offensively although there are bigger questions to answer on the other side of the ball. Injuries means the Ravens are short of some of their better Defenders and that could give the Bengals a chance to at least cover even if they come up short when it comes to winning the game.

Brandon Allen has played well enough at Quarter Back even it is clear that he is no Joe Burrow, but it will all come down to the back up because Cincinnati are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball. Being behind the sticks does mean Allen is going to facing up to the Baltimore pass rush which has been able to generate plenty fo pressure, but the Secondary have given up some plays and that is where Brandon Allen can have some success.

An issue for the Quarter Back is that he could be without Tee Higgins in Week 17 after a strong rookie season from the Wide Receiver. That may make things a little more awkward for Cincinnati who have a chance for a backdoor cover, but who are facing a Baltimore team who have blown out those teams they are expected to beat.

The Ravens have covered spreads of 8.5 points and higher in three of their last four wins and they are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the favourite. They are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight when facing Divisional rivals and they are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve on the road.

You have to respect the Bengals in how well they have played when set as the home underdog, but I think Baltimore will prove too much and find the big runs on the ground to pull clear and earn their Wild Card spot.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: Nothing can be decided about PlayOff spots in this big NFC East Week 17 game, but the losing team will know they are out of contention. Even the winning team will need to wait for Sunday Night Football and hope eliminated Philadelphia can beat the Washington Football Team which would send the winner of this one into the post-season.

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are going into Week 17 in different moods too- the Cowboys have won three in a row when seemingly out of contention, but results have landed their way, while the New York Giants have lost three in a row and that might have been a costly losing run at this stage of the season.

Injuries have not helped either of these teams through 2020 but there are no excuses at this stage of the year and players will be looking to dig deep. Both could be missing some key players on Sunday too which will not help, but I do like the kind of rhythm that has been built up by the Cowboys even if they do end up coming up short when it comes to hosting a PlayOff game next weekend.

Andy Dalton has really offered the team a spark since returning from a concussion and he does look to be on the same page as his Wide Receivers which is going to be a huge part of this game. The Receivers are very, very talented and have been making plays for the Dallas Offensive unit, although they will be challenged by a New York Giants Secondary which is keeping the team in games.

There does look to be an opportunity for Ezekiel Elliot to make up for what has been a sub-par year as he will be given the ball to run against a Giants Defensive Line which has looked a little worn down in recent games. Tony Pollard is another who can come in and have success on the ground as well as a Receiver coming out of the backfield, and I think that will set Dalton up to have a decent game.

No one should doubt the Giants Secondary and their ability, but being in front of the chains gives Andy Dalton all of the Offensive options in the play book and that should mean the Cowboys are able to move the chains.

Injuries on the Defensive side of the ball should mean the New York Giants are feeling good about themselves when it comes to an Offensive bounce back week. Even then you can't ignore the fact that the Giants have not scored more than 13 points in any of their last 3 games as they have hit a losing run and some of that is down to the Quarter Back who has been slowed by issues with his body.

Daniel Jones has shown enough to have people in the organisation believing in him, but when he can't move as he would like it does make it very difficult to use his skills as you would like. The limitations have meant the Offensive Line have struggled to protect Jones and one aspect where the Cowboys have done well enough this season when it comes to the Defense is getting after the Quarter Back.

He won't be helped by the injuries to key Receivers, but Jones is hard to trust with his own issues and I think this is the main reason I believe the Giants will struggle as the home underdog.

We have seen teams run the ball all over Dallas all season and that may be the best bet for the Giants when it comes to the Offensive play-calling, but it would feel different if Saquon Barkley was healthy rather than Wayne Gallman. Even if Daniel Jones was healthier to offer a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position it may have been different, but that is not the case and I do think Dallas will have enough firepower to pull away and win this game.

The Cowboys have had the better of this rivalry of late with seven straight wins against the Giants and that may not be far from the minds of the players.

Dallas have not been a very good favourite or a road team to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when facing a team with a losing record.

The Giants are just 3-14 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog and I think they will come up short here.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Things are going to look pretty clear for the Indianapolis Colts by the time they kick off in the late afternoon spot in Week 17 of the NFL season. The 10-5 Colts blew a big lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 and that means they are no longer in control of their own destiny despite having every chance of finishing the year with eleven wins.

Ultimately they need to win and hope at least one of the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns or Tennessee Titans lose. By the time this game kicks off the first three of those teams would have completed their final regular season games, but the Colts will still look to play hard even if they have all won.

There is no doubt it would be deflating if the Wild Card spots are all locked up and you do have to wonder what the Colts will do if the Tennessee Titans are then up with a big lead at the Houston Texans in a game being played at the same time. Keeping the players focused on themselves will be the challenge for Head Coach Frank Reich and Indianapolis are big favourites to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars who have locked up the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft having won just one game all season.

The sole victory came against the Indianapolis Colts and the Jaguars can afford to play spoiler here which should motivate the players. However, it is hard to know how Jacksonville will flip the switch considering how uncompetitive they have been over their last three defeats and the decision to start Mike Glennon at Quarter Back has not gone down well.

Injuries have racked up on both sides of the ball and the Jaguars are going to be down their top Running Back and Wide Receiver in this game so it is very difficult to imagine Mike Glennon having consistent success. Running the ball against the Indianapolis Defensive Line has been very difficult in recent games and I am not sure the Quarter Back has the talent or the skill players to take advantage of the holes that have opened up in the Colts Secondary.

Mike Glennon could also face some pass rush pressure in this game and I do think the Jaguars will have a difficult time staying with the Indianapolis Colts who had been in good form before blowing their lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts will also have a motivated Quarter Back taking to the field as Philip Rivers could be playing his last professional game having admitted he will have to have a serious think about retirement in the off-season.

There is no doubt that Rivers is not the player he once was, but he has been efficient at Quarter Back and taken advantage of the strengths of the Indianapolis Offensive unit. A strong set of Running Backs have been able to produce some big gains behind this Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are also capable as safety blankets for Rivers in the passing game.

With the Jacksonville Defensive unit banged up at all levels, even the shifting Indianapolis Offensive Line should be able to take advantage and help the Colts rip off some big gains. Being in front of the chains should also mean Philip Rivers can look to throw the ball down the field with a limited pressure around him and with his Receivers likely to win their battles against a banged up Secondary.

Indianapolis have had a really poor recent record against Jacksonville which is a concern, but I think it should also keep them focused. The Colts have also bounced back from losses as they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games following a defeat, while the Jaguars have been blown out as big underdogs in their last three games.

I do worry about a backdoor cover in this one, but I think the Indianapolis Colts have enough to cover as they look for revenge for an earlier defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: Like their AFC South rivals the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans will be hoping at least one of the teams in the current Wild Card spots have lost earlier in the day. Somebody will be paying attention to the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns games that are being played in the early slot, but Mike Vrabel is a Head Coach who will be demanding his players to take their futures into their own hands.

The simple equation for the Tennessee Titans is winning this game and winning the AFC South Division which would mean hosting a PlayOff game next weekend. A defeat will open the door for the Indianapolis Colts and also leave the Titans vulnerable to missing the PlayOffs a season after reaching the AFC Championship Game.

Tennessee are big favourites to win here, but this is one of those games where the 'need' is shaping the spread rather than anything the Titans have done on the field. Last week they were blown out comfortably by the Green Bay Packers and there are some major questions about the Defensive unit that makes it hard to believe in them.

However you do have to wonder what kind of motivation we will see from the Houston Texans who have a 4-11 record, but who won't benefit from having a high Draft Pick as it is being given to the Miami Dolphins. That will at least mean the Texans will be looking to end the season on a high knowing they don't hold their own First Round Pick, but there have been questions as to how long they want to keep their better players on the field.

Deshaun Watson was a little hurt at the end of the Week 16 defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he is insisting he is playing and Interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel has also suggested the Quarter Back will be good to go. It is so important for the Houston Texans to have Watson playing even though he is short of much help, although in this game the team would be facing a horrible Tennessee Defensive unit.

David Johnson could have a huge impact in this game because the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to control the line of scrimmage and running the ball has been something the Texans have been able to do in recent games. Their Quarter Back is able to make plays with his legs too and I do think Deshaun Watson and the Houston Offense will also find considerable success throwing the ball down the field.

You do have to question how the Houston Offensive Line has played when it comes to protecting Watson and that is a key reason most thought the Quarter Back may sit in Week 17. However the Titans have virtually had no pass rush in recent games and so I expect Deshaun Watson to have some time in this one to keep the chains moving.

Moving the ball on the ground won't only be a successful game plan for the Houston Texans and Derrick Henry will be ready to have a big week for the Tennessee Titans. He is a difficult Running Back to stop at the best of times, but players have been trampling all over the Texans Defensive Line and I fully expect Tennessee to be able to move the ball on the ground through Henry and his power.

It will ease the pressure on Ryan Tannehill who has not been playing very well in recent games. However like Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill will have time to throw the ball down the field in this one and the Houston Secondary is completely banged up to suggest the Quarter Back is going to be able to find his big targets in the passing game.

Both teams should feel good about their Offensive schemes in this one and we could see a similar game to the one between the Divisional rivals earlier in the season which was decided in Overtime. It certainly makes the points being given to the Houston Texans look really appealing in this one with every chance of a late score to get within the key number that the point spread is going through.

Neither team has very strong trends to lean on, but Houston do have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six home games against this Divisional rival. I do like the Texans in this one and I think they can at least make this a competitive game as the Titans feel the pressure of trying to secure their own PlayOff spot.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There is still a chance for the New Orleans Saints to finish as high as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and earn the only Bye in the Conference on Wild Card Weekend. However they are going to need some help to do that and there is a feeling in my mind that Sean Payton could rest a number of starters if he hears news of other results which are likely going to mean the Saints are playing next week.

The main player Payton will want to protect has to be Drew Brees as the Quarter Back is still favouring his ribs after the injury he suffered earlier this season. The Saints will know how important Brees is for them if they are going to make the Super Bowl again and so if the Number 1 Seed is beyond them it would be foolish not to give the Quarter Back a bit more rest in preparation for next week.

Regardless of the full intentions of the Head Coach, the New Orleans Saints are going to be without some big Offensive weapons in Week 17. Alvin Kamara may have tied a NFL record last week when scoring six Touchdowns on the ground, but he has tested positive for Covid-19 and will sit out in Week 17, while the rest of the Running Back corps are also going to sit as close contacts of Kamara.

Taysom Hill and Ty Montgomery could have their successes against this Carolina Defensive Line which has worn down over the course of the season, but the absence of a pass catching Back like Kamara is a big blow to the Offensive unit. The Saints may use more Wildcat looks with Hill at Quarter Back if they do wish to give Brees a little more time to rest, while the Quarter Back is also without his top Receiving target Michael Thomas.

It has not effect last week in the win over Minnesota, but I do think the Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated to stop the Saints becoming the first time to sweep the entire Division in a single season in the NFC South. Teddy Bridgewater has spent time with the Saints and he should also want to underline his ability to take Carolina forward as the Panthers continue their rebuild.

For much of the season Carolina have been very competitive, although they are also missing some key players in Week 17 as the season winds down for them. Losing Mike Davis means having to work down the depth chart at Running Back, while Bridgewater will be well aware of the quality of the New Orleans pass rush which could rush his throws.

Even then I do think the Panthers will have some successes and a backdoor cover can't be ruled out if the Saints decide to give their better players rest time as the game develops. Finishing with the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed is not a major difference, and certainly not one that will see Sean Payton pushing to do one or the other, but I would not be surprised if the Saints do just enough to win this without covering.

As I have mentioned, the Panthers have been competitive for large parts of the season and they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the underdog. They are also 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against the New Orleans Saints, while Carolina covered as the underdog when these teams met earlier this season to push the dog to 11-2 against the spread in the last thirteen between these Divisional rivals.

There is plenty to like about the Saints over the next month as the PlayOffs get going, but I think the Panthers can do enough to make use of the points on offer here.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: These two old rivals have so much to play for in Week 17 of the 2020 season and I do think there is every chance that it goes down to the wire.

The Green Bay Packers have won the NFC North and confirmed they are going to host at least one PlayOff Game, but they have control of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and this season it feels extra important to earn that spot. For starters they are the sole team to receive a Bye in the NFC and the extra rest as well as home field advantage through the PlayOffs is absolutely massive for a team who will feel they should have won more Super Bowls during the Aaron Rodgers era.

Aaron Rodgers has been playing really well all season and has to be the stand out name when it comes to the award of the regular season MVP. He has gotten back on the same page with the team who seemingly Drafted their future at Quarter Back last year and who did not bring in the kind of talent that would have taken Rodgers even further ahead.

He has made lemonade out of the lemons most felt the Green Bay Packers have given him in 2020 and the Packers are big favourites to win here.

However it has not only been good news for the 12-3 Green Bay Packers as they lost key Offensive Lineman David Bakhtiari for the season and that will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back. It may also affect the running game which has been important for the Packers all season and we will see how they handle the Chicago Defensive Line which has not played as well as they would have liked up front.

Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be ready to go in this one, but Green Bay have some real depth at Running Back now and they will still believe they can move the ball on the ground despite the issues on the Offensive Line. And any team that has Aaron Rodgers will always believe they can throw the ball with success, although the injury to Bakhtiari may be felt most keenly when it comes to pass protection and especially against this fierce Chicago pass rush.

You still have to feel the Packers will move the ball and score points, but the return of Mitchell Trubisky has galvanised the Offensive unit and the Chicago Bears are now streaking in a positive direction. It is hard to really trust Trubisky on his own, but the key for the Bears may be the performance of the Offensive Line and David Montgomery who has shown why there were so many raving about the Running Back before a tough start to his professional career.

It is so important to be able to run the ball against the Packers Defensive Line if only to make life easier for your own Quarter Back with the strength of the Green Bay Defense being the Secondary. An additional bonus is that running the ball will keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines and cool off the Packers Offense and allow the Bears to remain competitive in this game.

There has been enough from the Bears Offensive Line to believe they can run the ball and the mobility of the Quarter Back will really help too. That may just ease up the Green Bay pass rush and it will be up to Mitchell Trubisky to make sure he is accurate when he does look to target some talented Receivers and Tight Ends down the field.

I do like the Bears here as they look to earn the win which will take them into the PlayOffs, but backing them on the spread means we are going through a key number with the home underdog.

Green Bay have won eight of the last nine against Chicago and they blew them out at the end of November which makes it hard to believe in the Bears.

However Chicago are 14-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty games as the home underdog and I think I will be happy enough taking the Bears with the points.

Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: In a terrible NFC East it says so much about badly Philadelphia have played this season that the Eagles are the sole team out of four that cannot make the PlayOffs in Week 17. They can play spoiler for the Washington Football Team though and a 'no hat rule' is in place inside the Eagles locker room as they refuse to let another Divisional rival celebrate on their own patch.

Things are very simple for the Washington Football Team who will be hosting a PlayOff Game on Wild Card Weekend if they can win in the Sunday Night Football slot this week. That will be a challenge for a team who have been struggling Offensively as they have dropped back to back games, although Alex Smith is back to lead the Football Team on Sunday.

Dwayne Haskins was the starter over the last couple of weeks, but he has long been out of favour with the Washington Coaching staff and no one was that surprised when he was released between Week 16 and Week 17. That means there is a hope that Smith is over his injuries and ready to compete at Quarter Back, and he will be helped by the fact that the Eagles have nothing to play for and are giving banged up veterans the chance to rest.

Ron Rivera will be keeping his fingers crossed that the likes of Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurinare able to suit up on Sunday as the big time Offensive weapons that will propel Washington forward. The Football Team will be looking to move the ball on the ground and at least try and make life easier for Alex Smith, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the Eagles banged up Secondary which has allowed big play after big play in recent weeks.

I do think Alex Smith will have successes, but I am not entirely convinced it will be a consistency to the drives through the game.

There should be some pressure on the Quarter Back when he does drop back to throw the ball and Alex Smith has not really felt comfortable throwing the ball down the field. Instead he will be looking to stay in front of the chains and hope the Philadelphia Secondary continues to bust coverages as much as they have been.

The Football Team should be able to have some strong Offensive drives, but the Philadelphia Eagles will believe Jalen Hurts will offer some positive drives of their own. The Quarter Back has given the Eagles a boost since coming in for Carson Wentz, but he has been inaccurate at times and made some poor decisions and that has proven to be costly for the Eagles.

There are some key players missing for the Eagles on this side of the ball which may make them a little inconsistent and I am not convinced they will run the ball as well they have been. Hurts is capable of moving the ball with his legs, but Miles Sanders may miss out which means Boston Scott is taking the bulk of carries again.

Again it is very important to stay in front of the sticks and I do think the Eagles will be capable of doing that, although the Washington Defensive Line remains very strong at breaking through and getting to the Quarter Back. That will likely be evident in this Week 17 game and that pressure up front has made it difficult for teams to throw the ball against the Football Team Secondary.

I do think that will eventually be the key to the outcome of the game and I think the Eagles are too short-handed and banged up to stay with the Football Team.

Washington have a 9-4 record against the spread in their last thirteen games in Philadelphia.

The Eagles do have a good record as a home underdog and Washington are not exactly a great road favourite to back, but I think the situation and the Offensive balance favours the Football Team to earn a big win. The Football Team have also played well enough against Divisional rivals to believe they can win this by around a Touchdown and I will back them to cover in what might be a tight, tense game decided by a huge Defensive stand from Washington in the Fourth Quarter.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Houston Texans + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Chicago Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)