NFL Week 17 Picks 2020 (January 3rd)

All credit has to be given to the NFL for making it through to Week 17 of the regular season with little impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the games being played.

There have been moments, but the fact that no games have been cancelled is a testimony to the protocols put in place, although no one should take it for granted that the PlayOffs will go smoothly just because the last seventeen weeks have largely gone to plan.

Week 17 used to be a pretty boring one in the regular season, but changes to the scheduling has meant more Divisional Games have been placed in this week to make it more appealing. Add in the new NFL PlayOff format and there is plenty to achieve for many teams in Week 17 before we go into the first six game Wild Card Round in NFL history next weekend.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: We have reached that time of the NFL season when you have to consider the motivation of teams and players with the post-season and the end of the season in sight. Much depends on how the season has gone, but this is a game between two NFC South Divisional rivals which will bring its own motivations to the table.

The Atlanta Falcons know their season is coming to an end and the fan base might be hoping the team don't ruin their current Draft position by winning what is effectively a meaningless game. At the moment the 4-11 record will be good enough for a top four Draft position later on in the year and the fans can't even hope to play spoiler for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who have secured their spot in the post-season.

The Buccaneers hold a 10-5 record and will be playing on the road on Wild Card Weekend, but they are currently the Number 5 Seed which means they will face the NFC East Champions who look like being the weakest of the home teams that are due to play next weekend. Securing that spot has to be important for Tampa Bay who will be looking to enter the post-season with some momentum as they look to become the first team in NFL history to play the Super Bowl in their home Stadium.

Bruce Arians does love seeing his teams throw the ball down the field, but we are heading into January and Tampa Bay need to find a way to run the ball better than they have been. Ronald Jones could be back for the Buccaneers, but this may be another tough outing for the Buccaneers Offensive Line which has been much stronger in pass protection than run blocking.

They are not likely to enjoy a lot of success against the Atlanta Defensive Line which has continued to play hard up front, but Tampa Bay will be comfortable with Tom Brady at Quarter Back especially if he is still playing in what is largely going to be a clean pocket. Many know the only way to rattle Brady is by getting him to feel the pass rush pressure, but it is not likely to be the case against the Falcons and I expect his Wide Receivers and Tight Ends to win their one on one battles and exploit the Atlanta Secondary.

Tom Brady and company should have no problem throwing the ball and Mike Evans is likely to have a big game as he will be targeted early and often.

It will mean there is some pressure on the Falcons to try and keep up on the scoreboard and that is a big challenge when there is nothing to really achieve for the players. Changes are likely coming with a new Head Coach expected to be hired and that might have players thinking ahead, while Julio Jones is not going to be risked as he looks for a healthier 2021.

Matt Ryan has to be wondering what the future holds for him at Quarter Back, but he may be asked to have at least one more big game if the Falcons are going to stay competitive. It is unlikely that Ryan will be given a lot of support from the run game which means he is going to have to drop back and take risks throwing into an improving Tampa Bay Secondary.

There are some spaces for him to exploit, I have no doubt about that, but Matty Ice does not have anything near the same protection as Tom Brady is going to enjoy at Quarter Back. The Falcons Offensive Line have not been able to keep Ryan upright and now they will be facing a Tampa Bay pass rush which has plenty of talent getting after the Quarter Back and I do think it will be a major factor in the outcome of this one.

I do have to respect the fact that the Falcons have performed well as the road underdog and they do have a Quarter Back capable of strong drives to keep this one close and perhaps even sneak through the back door. However I think the Week 17 situation may see Tampa Bay have too much as they look to close out the Number 5 Seed in the NFC and I will back them to cover the line as it remains under a key number.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns Pick: This Week 17 game does not mean very much to the Pittsburgh Steelers who have a 12-3 record, but who suffered a three game losing run last month which meant the Number 1 Seed was out of reach. They are confirmed in finishing either with the Number 2 or the Number 3 Seed in the AFC and the change in the PlayOff format means the Steelers will be playing as a host on Wild Card Weekend whether finishing second or third in the standings.

An unexpected cancellation of a game during the regular season meant the Steelers have had to play without a Bye Week in 2020 and so it is perhaps not a surprise that Mike Tomlin has elected to give his starters some rest. It has already been announced that Mason Rudolph will be playing at Quarter Back instead of Ben Roethlisberger and that is going to be a major storyline going into Week 17.

The last time Rudolph started against the Cleveland Browns in this Stadium it ended in a brawl and multiple suspensions in 2019, but both teams are playing things down and that is important for the Browns who need to produce a win.

A surprising loss to the New York Jets on a day when the Receivers were all isolating means Cleveland are still looking to lock up a PlayOff spot despite reaching ten wins already in 2020. The situation is in their own control as a win would be enough, but a defeat would leave the fans scrambling to hear how Indianapolis and the other teams around them are getting on.

Cleveland can't think too far ahead and they are expecting to have those missing Receivers back while also benefiting from the fact that the Steelers are not going to be playing their starters. There is every chance the Browns will be heading to Pittsburgh for the Wild Card Round and so they won't want to give too much away, but the team will also be aware that they can't afford to hold too much back and somehow miss the post-season.

With the expected changes that the Steelers are going to make, Cleveland should be able to have a relatively comfortable day moving the ball. The Pittsburgh schemes will make them solid enough Defensively, but ultimately they will likely be playing second and third string players and that should mean the Browns are able to move the ball and score enough points to win this one.

More importantly I do struggle to see how Pittsburgh will move the ball with any consistency as Mason Rudolph has proven to be little more than a backup. He really struggled to throw the ball against the Browns Secondary in their game last year and I do think Rudolph is going to have problems with the key Pittsburgh Receivers sitting down.

It is a very big spread, but Cleveland beat Pittsburgh by 14 points when facing Mason Rudolph last year. I think the Browns are going to use the motivation of facing a disliked Quarter Back to really rally them for this game as they look to lock down a PlayOff spot.

The Steelers have been a very good road underdog to back against the spread, but I think it will be hard to stay focused with the back ups out there. The Browns may need to stop a couple of late drives to avoid a backdoor cover and are likely to use vanilla Offensive play-calling if they get into a healthy lead which is a concern, but they should be able to win this one fairly comfortably on the day.

Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: At 6-5 the Baltimore Ravens had to be wondering if they were going to reach the PlayOffs, but a run of four straight wins means they have control of their own destiny. Beating the Cincinnati Bengals will be enough to secure the Ravens a spot in the Wild Card Round next weekend, but a defeat means they will be needing to work out the permutations to determine whether Baltimore will be playing more Football this season.

At this stage no one associated with the Ravens are going to be wondering about what happens if they lose- simply put Baltimore will feel they have more than enough to beat a banged up Bengals team despite the fact Cincinnati have won two in a row.

One of those was an upset of the Pittsburgh Steelers so the Bengals will need to be highly respected by the Ravens, although I do think Baltimore match up better than the Steelers. The main reason for that is while Pittsburgh have struggled to run the ball consistently, Baltimore have three players who have all had at least 600 yards on the ground this season and the Ravens Offensive Line should control this game.

It has been an issue for Cincinnati to stop the run and I don't think they are going to have much joy in this one. Lamar Jackson is capable of doing plenty of damage with his legs, but he has also shown improvements throwing down the field and with Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown I do expect the Quarter Back to have success throughout this game whether running or throwing the ball.

With little pressure being generated by the Browns, Baltimore should have their way Offensively although there are bigger questions to answer on the other side of the ball. Injuries means the Ravens are short of some of their better Defenders and that could give the Bengals a chance to at least cover even if they come up short when it comes to winning the game.

Brandon Allen has played well enough at Quarter Back even it is clear that he is no Joe Burrow, but it will all come down to the back up because Cincinnati are unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball. Being behind the sticks does mean Allen is going to facing up to the Baltimore pass rush which has been able to generate plenty fo pressure, but the Secondary have given up some plays and that is where Brandon Allen can have some success.

An issue for the Quarter Back is that he could be without Tee Higgins in Week 17 after a strong rookie season from the Wide Receiver. That may make things a little more awkward for Cincinnati who have a chance for a backdoor cover, but who are facing a Baltimore team who have blown out those teams they are expected to beat.

The Ravens have covered spreads of 8.5 points and higher in three of their last four wins and they are 4-0 against the spread in their last four as the favourite. They are also 7-1 against the spread in their last eight when facing Divisional rivals and they are 9-3 against the spread in their last twelve on the road.

You have to respect the Bengals in how well they have played when set as the home underdog, but I think Baltimore will prove too much and find the big runs on the ground to pull clear and earn their Wild Card spot.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants Pick: Nothing can be decided about PlayOff spots in this big NFC East Week 17 game, but the losing team will know they are out of contention. Even the winning team will need to wait for Sunday Night Football and hope eliminated Philadelphia can beat the Washington Football Team which would send the winner of this one into the post-season.

The Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants are going into Week 17 in different moods too- the Cowboys have won three in a row when seemingly out of contention, but results have landed their way, while the New York Giants have lost three in a row and that might have been a costly losing run at this stage of the season.

Injuries have not helped either of these teams through 2020 but there are no excuses at this stage of the year and players will be looking to dig deep. Both could be missing some key players on Sunday too which will not help, but I do like the kind of rhythm that has been built up by the Cowboys even if they do end up coming up short when it comes to hosting a PlayOff game next weekend.

Andy Dalton has really offered the team a spark since returning from a concussion and he does look to be on the same page as his Wide Receivers which is going to be a huge part of this game. The Receivers are very, very talented and have been making plays for the Dallas Offensive unit, although they will be challenged by a New York Giants Secondary which is keeping the team in games.

There does look to be an opportunity for Ezekiel Elliot to make up for what has been a sub-par year as he will be given the ball to run against a Giants Defensive Line which has looked a little worn down in recent games. Tony Pollard is another who can come in and have success on the ground as well as a Receiver coming out of the backfield, and I think that will set Dalton up to have a decent game.

No one should doubt the Giants Secondary and their ability, but being in front of the chains gives Andy Dalton all of the Offensive options in the play book and that should mean the Cowboys are able to move the chains.

Injuries on the Defensive side of the ball should mean the New York Giants are feeling good about themselves when it comes to an Offensive bounce back week. Even then you can't ignore the fact that the Giants have not scored more than 13 points in any of their last 3 games as they have hit a losing run and some of that is down to the Quarter Back who has been slowed by issues with his body.

Daniel Jones has shown enough to have people in the organisation believing in him, but when he can't move as he would like it does make it very difficult to use his skills as you would like. The limitations have meant the Offensive Line have struggled to protect Jones and one aspect where the Cowboys have done well enough this season when it comes to the Defense is getting after the Quarter Back.

He won't be helped by the injuries to key Receivers, but Jones is hard to trust with his own issues and I think this is the main reason I believe the Giants will struggle as the home underdog.

We have seen teams run the ball all over Dallas all season and that may be the best bet for the Giants when it comes to the Offensive play-calling, but it would feel different if Saquon Barkley was healthy rather than Wayne Gallman. Even if Daniel Jones was healthier to offer a dual-threat from the Quarter Back position it may have been different, but that is not the case and I do think Dallas will have enough firepower to pull away and win this game.

The Cowboys have had the better of this rivalry of late with seven straight wins against the Giants and that may not be far from the minds of the players.

Dallas have not been a very good favourite or a road team to back, but they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five when facing a team with a losing record.

The Giants are just 3-14 against the spread in their last seventeen as the home underdog and I think they will come up short here.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Things are going to look pretty clear for the Indianapolis Colts by the time they kick off in the late afternoon spot in Week 17 of the NFL season. The 10-5 Colts blew a big lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16 and that means they are no longer in control of their own destiny despite having every chance of finishing the year with eleven wins.

Ultimately they need to win and hope at least one of the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns or Tennessee Titans lose. By the time this game kicks off the first three of those teams would have completed their final regular season games, but the Colts will still look to play hard even if they have all won.

There is no doubt it would be deflating if the Wild Card spots are all locked up and you do have to wonder what the Colts will do if the Tennessee Titans are then up with a big lead at the Houston Texans in a game being played at the same time. Keeping the players focused on themselves will be the challenge for Head Coach Frank Reich and Indianapolis are big favourites to beat the Jacksonville Jaguars who have locked up the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft having won just one game all season.

The sole victory came against the Indianapolis Colts and the Jaguars can afford to play spoiler here which should motivate the players. However, it is hard to know how Jacksonville will flip the switch considering how uncompetitive they have been over their last three defeats and the decision to start Mike Glennon at Quarter Back has not gone down well.

Injuries have racked up on both sides of the ball and the Jaguars are going to be down their top Running Back and Wide Receiver in this game so it is very difficult to imagine Mike Glennon having consistent success. Running the ball against the Indianapolis Defensive Line has been very difficult in recent games and I am not sure the Quarter Back has the talent or the skill players to take advantage of the holes that have opened up in the Colts Secondary.

Mike Glennon could also face some pass rush pressure in this game and I do think the Jaguars will have a difficult time staying with the Indianapolis Colts who had been in good form before blowing their lead against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Colts will also have a motivated Quarter Back taking to the field as Philip Rivers could be playing his last professional game having admitted he will have to have a serious think about retirement in the off-season.

There is no doubt that Rivers is not the player he once was, but he has been efficient at Quarter Back and taken advantage of the strengths of the Indianapolis Offensive unit. A strong set of Running Backs have been able to produce some big gains behind this Offensive Line and the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins are also capable as safety blankets for Rivers in the passing game.

With the Jacksonville Defensive unit banged up at all levels, even the shifting Indianapolis Offensive Line should be able to take advantage and help the Colts rip off some big gains. Being in front of the chains should also mean Philip Rivers can look to throw the ball down the field with a limited pressure around him and with his Receivers likely to win their battles against a banged up Secondary.

Indianapolis have had a really poor recent record against Jacksonville which is a concern, but I think it should also keep them focused. The Colts have also bounced back from losses as they have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five games following a defeat, while the Jaguars have been blown out as big underdogs in their last three games.

I do worry about a backdoor cover in this one, but I think the Indianapolis Colts have enough to cover as they look for revenge for an earlier defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: Like their AFC South rivals the Indianapolis Colts, the Tennessee Titans will be hoping at least one of the teams in the current Wild Card spots have lost earlier in the day. Somebody will be paying attention to the Miami Dolphins, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns games that are being played in the early slot, but Mike Vrabel is a Head Coach who will be demanding his players to take their futures into their own hands.

The simple equation for the Tennessee Titans is winning this game and winning the AFC South Division which would mean hosting a PlayOff game next weekend. A defeat will open the door for the Indianapolis Colts and also leave the Titans vulnerable to missing the PlayOffs a season after reaching the AFC Championship Game.

Tennessee are big favourites to win here, but this is one of those games where the 'need' is shaping the spread rather than anything the Titans have done on the field. Last week they were blown out comfortably by the Green Bay Packers and there are some major questions about the Defensive unit that makes it hard to believe in them.

However you do have to wonder what kind of motivation we will see from the Houston Texans who have a 4-11 record, but who won't benefit from having a high Draft Pick as it is being given to the Miami Dolphins. That will at least mean the Texans will be looking to end the season on a high knowing they don't hold their own First Round Pick, but there have been questions as to how long they want to keep their better players on the field.

Deshaun Watson was a little hurt at the end of the Week 16 defeat against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he is insisting he is playing and Interim Head Coach Romeo Crennel has also suggested the Quarter Back will be good to go. It is so important for the Houston Texans to have Watson playing even though he is short of much help, although in this game the team would be facing a horrible Tennessee Defensive unit.

David Johnson could have a huge impact in this game because the Titans Defensive Line have not been able to control the line of scrimmage and running the ball has been something the Texans have been able to do in recent games. Their Quarter Back is able to make plays with his legs too and I do think Deshaun Watson and the Houston Offense will also find considerable success throwing the ball down the field.

You do have to question how the Houston Offensive Line has played when it comes to protecting Watson and that is a key reason most thought the Quarter Back may sit in Week 17. However the Titans have virtually had no pass rush in recent games and so I expect Deshaun Watson to have some time in this one to keep the chains moving.

Moving the ball on the ground won't only be a successful game plan for the Houston Texans and Derrick Henry will be ready to have a big week for the Tennessee Titans. He is a difficult Running Back to stop at the best of times, but players have been trampling all over the Texans Defensive Line and I fully expect Tennessee to be able to move the ball on the ground through Henry and his power.

It will ease the pressure on Ryan Tannehill who has not been playing very well in recent games. However like Deshaun Watson, Ryan Tannehill will have time to throw the ball down the field in this one and the Houston Secondary is completely banged up to suggest the Quarter Back is going to be able to find his big targets in the passing game.

Both teams should feel good about their Offensive schemes in this one and we could see a similar game to the one between the Divisional rivals earlier in the season which was decided in Overtime. It certainly makes the points being given to the Houston Texans look really appealing in this one with every chance of a late score to get within the key number that the point spread is going through.

Neither team has very strong trends to lean on, but Houston do have a 5-1 record against the spread in their last six home games against this Divisional rival. I do like the Texans in this one and I think they can at least make this a competitive game as the Titans feel the pressure of trying to secure their own PlayOff spot.

New Orleans Saints @ Carolina Panthers Pick: There is still a chance for the New Orleans Saints to finish as high as the Number 1 Seed in the NFC and earn the only Bye in the Conference on Wild Card Weekend. However they are going to need some help to do that and there is a feeling in my mind that Sean Payton could rest a number of starters if he hears news of other results which are likely going to mean the Saints are playing next week.

The main player Payton will want to protect has to be Drew Brees as the Quarter Back is still favouring his ribs after the injury he suffered earlier this season. The Saints will know how important Brees is for them if they are going to make the Super Bowl again and so if the Number 1 Seed is beyond them it would be foolish not to give the Quarter Back a bit more rest in preparation for next week.

Regardless of the full intentions of the Head Coach, the New Orleans Saints are going to be without some big Offensive weapons in Week 17. Alvin Kamara may have tied a NFL record last week when scoring six Touchdowns on the ground, but he has tested positive for Covid-19 and will sit out in Week 17, while the rest of the Running Back corps are also going to sit as close contacts of Kamara.

Taysom Hill and Ty Montgomery could have their successes against this Carolina Defensive Line which has worn down over the course of the season, but the absence of a pass catching Back like Kamara is a big blow to the Offensive unit. The Saints may use more Wildcat looks with Hill at Quarter Back if they do wish to give Brees a little more time to rest, while the Quarter Back is also without his top Receiving target Michael Thomas.

It has not effect last week in the win over Minnesota, but I do think the Carolina Panthers will be highly motivated to stop the Saints becoming the first time to sweep the entire Division in a single season in the NFC South. Teddy Bridgewater has spent time with the Saints and he should also want to underline his ability to take Carolina forward as the Panthers continue their rebuild.

For much of the season Carolina have been very competitive, although they are also missing some key players in Week 17 as the season winds down for them. Losing Mike Davis means having to work down the depth chart at Running Back, while Bridgewater will be well aware of the quality of the New Orleans pass rush which could rush his throws.

Even then I do think the Panthers will have some successes and a backdoor cover can't be ruled out if the Saints decide to give their better players rest time as the game develops. Finishing with the Number 2 or Number 3 Seed is not a major difference, and certainly not one that will see Sean Payton pushing to do one or the other, but I would not be surprised if the Saints do just enough to win this without covering.

As I have mentioned, the Panthers have been competitive for large parts of the season and they are 8-1 against the spread in their last nine as the underdog. They are also 5-1 against the spread in the last six games against the New Orleans Saints, while Carolina covered as the underdog when these teams met earlier this season to push the dog to 11-2 against the spread in the last thirteen between these Divisional rivals.

There is plenty to like about the Saints over the next month as the PlayOffs get going, but I think the Panthers can do enough to make use of the points on offer here.

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears Pick: These two old rivals have so much to play for in Week 17 of the 2020 season and I do think there is every chance that it goes down to the wire.

The Green Bay Packers have won the NFC North and confirmed they are going to host at least one PlayOff Game, but they have control of the Number 1 Seed in the Conference and this season it feels extra important to earn that spot. For starters they are the sole team to receive a Bye in the NFC and the extra rest as well as home field advantage through the PlayOffs is absolutely massive for a team who will feel they should have won more Super Bowls during the Aaron Rodgers era.

Aaron Rodgers has been playing really well all season and has to be the stand out name when it comes to the award of the regular season MVP. He has gotten back on the same page with the team who seemingly Drafted their future at Quarter Back last year and who did not bring in the kind of talent that would have taken Rodgers even further ahead.

He has made lemonade out of the lemons most felt the Green Bay Packers have given him in 2020 and the Packers are big favourites to win here.

However it has not only been good news for the 12-3 Green Bay Packers as they lost key Offensive Lineman David Bakhtiari for the season and that will put some pressure on Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back. It may also affect the running game which has been important for the Packers all season and we will see how they handle the Chicago Defensive Line which has not played as well as they would have liked up front.

Both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams should be ready to go in this one, but Green Bay have some real depth at Running Back now and they will still believe they can move the ball on the ground despite the issues on the Offensive Line. And any team that has Aaron Rodgers will always believe they can throw the ball with success, although the injury to Bakhtiari may be felt most keenly when it comes to pass protection and especially against this fierce Chicago pass rush.

You still have to feel the Packers will move the ball and score points, but the return of Mitchell Trubisky has galvanised the Offensive unit and the Chicago Bears are now streaking in a positive direction. It is hard to really trust Trubisky on his own, but the key for the Bears may be the performance of the Offensive Line and David Montgomery who has shown why there were so many raving about the Running Back before a tough start to his professional career.

It is so important to be able to run the ball against the Packers Defensive Line if only to make life easier for your own Quarter Back with the strength of the Green Bay Defense being the Secondary. An additional bonus is that running the ball will keep Aaron Rodgers freezing on the sidelines and cool off the Packers Offense and allow the Bears to remain competitive in this game.

There has been enough from the Bears Offensive Line to believe they can run the ball and the mobility of the Quarter Back will really help too. That may just ease up the Green Bay pass rush and it will be up to Mitchell Trubisky to make sure he is accurate when he does look to target some talented Receivers and Tight Ends down the field.

I do like the Bears here as they look to earn the win which will take them into the PlayOffs, but backing them on the spread means we are going through a key number with the home underdog.

Green Bay have won eight of the last nine against Chicago and they blew them out at the end of November which makes it hard to believe in the Bears.

However Chicago are 14-5-1 against the spread in their last twenty games as the home underdog and I think I will be happy enough taking the Bears with the points.

Washington Football Team @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: In a terrible NFC East it says so much about badly Philadelphia have played this season that the Eagles are the sole team out of four that cannot make the PlayOffs in Week 17. They can play spoiler for the Washington Football Team though and a 'no hat rule' is in place inside the Eagles locker room as they refuse to let another Divisional rival celebrate on their own patch.

Things are very simple for the Washington Football Team who will be hosting a PlayOff Game on Wild Card Weekend if they can win in the Sunday Night Football slot this week. That will be a challenge for a team who have been struggling Offensively as they have dropped back to back games, although Alex Smith is back to lead the Football Team on Sunday.

Dwayne Haskins was the starter over the last couple of weeks, but he has long been out of favour with the Washington Coaching staff and no one was that surprised when he was released between Week 16 and Week 17. That means there is a hope that Smith is over his injuries and ready to compete at Quarter Back, and he will be helped by the fact that the Eagles have nothing to play for and are giving banged up veterans the chance to rest.

Ron Rivera will be keeping his fingers crossed that the likes of Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurinare able to suit up on Sunday as the big time Offensive weapons that will propel Washington forward. The Football Team will be looking to move the ball on the ground and at least try and make life easier for Alex Smith, although the Quarter Back has to be very aware of the Eagles banged up Secondary which has allowed big play after big play in recent weeks.

I do think Alex Smith will have successes, but I am not entirely convinced it will be a consistency to the drives through the game.

There should be some pressure on the Quarter Back when he does drop back to throw the ball and Alex Smith has not really felt comfortable throwing the ball down the field. Instead he will be looking to stay in front of the chains and hope the Philadelphia Secondary continues to bust coverages as much as they have been.

The Football Team should be able to have some strong Offensive drives, but the Philadelphia Eagles will believe Jalen Hurts will offer some positive drives of their own. The Quarter Back has given the Eagles a boost since coming in for Carson Wentz, but he has been inaccurate at times and made some poor decisions and that has proven to be costly for the Eagles.

There are some key players missing for the Eagles on this side of the ball which may make them a little inconsistent and I am not convinced they will run the ball as well they have been. Hurts is capable of moving the ball with his legs, but Miles Sanders may miss out which means Boston Scott is taking the bulk of carries again.

Again it is very important to stay in front of the sticks and I do think the Eagles will be capable of doing that, although the Washington Defensive Line remains very strong at breaking through and getting to the Quarter Back. That will likely be evident in this Week 17 game and that pressure up front has made it difficult for teams to throw the ball against the Football Team Secondary.

I do think that will eventually be the key to the outcome of the game and I think the Eagles are too short-handed and banged up to stay with the Football Team.

Washington have a 9-4 record against the spread in their last thirteen games in Philadelphia.

The Eagles do have a good record as a home underdog and Washington are not exactly a great road favourite to back, but I think the situation and the Offensive balance favours the Football Team to earn a big win. The Football Team have also played well enough against Divisional rivals to believe they can win this by around a Touchdown and I will back them to cover in what might be a tight, tense game decided by a huge Defensive stand from Washington in the Fourth Quarter.

MY PICKS: Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Indianapolis Colts - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Houston Texans + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers + 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Chicago Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Washington Football Team - 4.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (January 3rd)

It feels like only yesterday that we were seeing the end of the 2017 Tennis season, but here we go again at the beginning of another long slog for the players around the world.

This has been a busy time with the festive period meaning spending time with family and that has been the main reason I have not got round to researching any picks so far this week in the opening tournaments of the 2018 season.

That does not mean I have not shown any interest in the matches though.

With the Australian Open beginning in less than two weeks time, this is the time to see how players have gotten through their intense work to get ready for the new season. Of course all of the tournaments in the next two weeks are to prepare mentally for the first Grand Slam of the season although it looks like the men's draw is going to be extremely lopsided with a few big names still struggling with injuries.

All eyes will be on the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic and wondering if the two players who went into the 2017 season as the top two on the ATP can return and challenge the old guard of Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal again.

The other big story will be Serena Williams who has been back on a tennis court for the first time since giving birth to her first child. However the American has yet to commit to the first Slam of the new season and that is likely to leave the women's draw as wide open as it has been since Williams has been absent.


Mischa Zverev - 2.5 games v Michael Mmoh: It was during the Australian swing on the Tour that Mischa Zverev found some form although that does mean he has plenty of Ranking points to defend over the next month. He has made a good start with a straight sets win in the First Round here in Brisbane and Zverev continues to be inspired by younger brother Alexander.

Zverev is favoured to beat Michael Mmoh in the Second Round even though the younger player has come through three matches to reach this stage of the tournament.

However Mmoh is facing his toughest challenge so far in the tournament and the American has not really had a lot of success at this level to this point of his young career. His serve is  decent weapon, but I do wonder how Mmoh will cope with Zverev likely looking to get to the net and force his opponent to make a number of passes throughout the day.

A limited return game will need to be improved if Mmoh is to have a real impact at the main Tour level and it is a tough ask in this match. With Zverev hitting his spots and the lefty serve behind him, Mmoh might find it difficult to find the returns against someone who is also going to get up to the net and look to make his volleys.

The first set could be very close, but I do think Zverev is going to wear down Mmoh mentally in this one which will lead to a couple of loose service games. That is where the German can take advantage and help him win this match and cover the number in a 7-6, 6-4 win in the Second Round.

MY PICKS: Mischa Zverev - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (January 1-4)

Happy New Year and I hope this is a prosperous 2018 for everyone.

With Premier League games played on New Year's Day and through the next few days, all the picks will be on this one thread.


Brighton v Bournemouth Pick: The first live Premier League game from the 2018 calendar year comes from the south coast as both Brighton and Bournemouth look to give their chances of extending their stay in the top flight a real boost. Both clubs have had some positive results of late which will give them a real belief in their chances to do that and I do expect a positive intent from both clubs.

Goals can be a problem for the two clubs and the layers are offering a big price for at least three goals to be shared out.

However I think that may be worth taking on with the way both Brighton and Bournemouth have approached recent games. Brighton have created a fair few chances in front of goal and now face a Bournemouth defence that has really made too many mistakes.

On the other hand Bournemouth will know that Brighton can get a little nervy at the back and may feel they can at least expose some of the vulnerabilities that exist. The injuries to Jermain Defoe and Josh King don't help the Bournemouth cause, but The Cherries have scored 5 goals in their last couple of games in the Premier League and they can certainly score here.

The 1-1 draw is perhaps the result I am most concerned about, but I think Brighton and Bournemouth won't settle in this one. Both Chris Hughton and Eddie Howe are likely going to have circled this game to win and the positive attitude may result in at least three goals at what looks a very big price.


Burnley v Liverpool Pick: Goals have been in short supply in the most part when Burnley have played this season, but games against the top six have generally had a different feel. That could be the case again on New Year's Day when Burnley host Liverpool, even if Mo Salah is perhaps missing for the away side.

They might not be the most attacking team in the Premier League, but Burnley have been efficient in front of goal and they will feel they can cause problems for Liverpool from set pieces. The defensive issues for Liverpool won't all be resolved by the signing of Virgil Van Dijk and away from home that remains a real vulnerable spot for Liverpool.

Burnley could have some chances, but the fear for them has to be what Tottenham Hotspur did to them at Turf Moor ten days ago. Granted Burnley have the likes of James Tarkowski back in defence, but Liverpool have scored at least three times in their last 6 away games in all competitions and clearly carry a threat.

Even without Salah you would expect Liverpool will create some chances in this one and they have shown the form to think they can take the opportunities that come their way.

With both teams likely to have some opportunities in front of goal, I do think they can combine for at least three goals shared out. Liverpool themselves have shown they can reach this number on their own in recent weeks, but Burnley could also play a part and I will look for three goals to be produced at Turf Moor on the first day of 2018.


Stoke City v Newcastle United Pick: Two teams who are out of form meet in what could be termed as a 'relegation six pointer' and the three points on offer are huge for both managers. Rafa Benitez may not be under the same pressure as Mark Hughes, but relegation would be a huge blow for both Stoke City and Newcastle United.

Stoke City have kept their faith in Hughes and the team have responded when it seems like the manager is a game away from losing his job. The Welshman has to hope the same happens on New Year's Day after Stoke City were hammered at Stamford Bridge on Saturday, but this is a much more manageable game for them.

They will have to show Newcastle United respect after seeing The Magpies come from a goal behind to beat West Ham United 2-3 in their last away game. However Newcastle United have been struggling massively for the most part and they have a poor recent record at Stoke City.

It is hard to have a really strong belief in either of these teams, but Stoke City have won 2 of their last 3 at the Bet365 Stadium. They are likely to have a few players returning to the starting eleven and I think the team is still behind Mark Hughes and can have a strong response to the loss at Chelsea on Saturday.

Newcastle United can be a little hit and miss at times, but there is something missing at the moment. I think that means a small interest in Stoke City winning this game has to be taken on.


Everton v Manchester United Pick: It has been a difficult festive period for Manchester United as they have dropped six points over the last ten days which has seen them dragged back into a top four battle in the Premier League. Jose Mourinho has not been happy and is asking for more investment in the playing squad, while the players have not looked as confident as earlier in the season.

A bit of bad luck has not helped Manchester United as they should have won at Leicester City recently and some poor lapses from set pieces have cost them sloppy goals in other games.

The game on Saturday against Southampton was one of the poorer performances in recent weeks as Manchester United struggled to create too many clear cut chances. Now they are missing Romelu Lukaku for a few days at least and this is a much tougher test than it was a few weeks ago.

Sam Allardyce has made Everton a lot more solid and they have some decent talent in the final third which can help them cause problems for Manchester United. However I do think Everton will let Manchester United have the ball and allow the away side to dictate play and Allardyce himself is looking for more investment in the playing squad during this January transfer window.

The short turnaround between games makes it tough to read how the two teams will respond, but I think Manchester United have a couple more options with the changes they can make.

Wayne Rooney would love to get one over his former club, but I think Manchester United can bounce back from recent setbacks with a bigger performance on the first day of the new calendar year. Manchester United have played some decent stuff away from home in the last month when they perhaps have more space to operate in and I think they can win here.

Everton won't be a pushover as Chelsea found out a few days ago, but Manchester United can find something a little extra in the final third. Results may not have been the best in recent days, but this is a good chance for Manchester United to bounce back and I will back them to do that.


Southampton v Crystal Palace Pick: Both Crystal Palace and Southampton would have been pleased with goalless draws earned against the two clubs from Manchester on the final weekend of the 2017 calendar year. The points the two teams earned are important in keeping them out of the bottom three, but the significance of this fixture will not have been lost on the two managers.

There is a slightly tougher scheduling spot for Crystal Palace who played on Sunday and arguably had to get through a lot more work to earn the result with Manchester City than Southampton had to do at Old Trafford the evening before. However Crystal Palace are playing with plenty of confidence and they will believe recent away performances have improved significantly and to an extent that earning a result here is not out of the realms of possibility.

The layers seem to price Southampton up as a team who win a lot more games than they do and the lack of goals in the squad has to be a big concern for Mauricio Pellegrino. Now they have to face a Crystal Palace team who have looked strong defensively under Hodgson and I think the away team have enough in the locker to at least limit what Southampton can do.

On the other hand Crystal Palace also have some real quality in the final third that can cause problems and a single goal may be enough to earn a result and make it 5 straight unbeaten away from home for Roy Hodgson's men.

Crystal Palace don't have the best recent record here, but I do think they can earn a point and that looks a tempting price. The Saints look short at odds on to win this fixture and I will back The Eagles with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Swansea City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: Ultimately it will be results that matter most to Swansea City, but they can't afford to play as poorly as they did for so much of the game at Watford. Better sides will not sit back and allow them to play their way back into the games to steal three points as Watford did and Swansea City will have to be a lot better when coming up against a hot Tottenham Hotspur.

Mauricio Pochettino's men might not have played this weekend, and that has given them a chance to have a few more days to rest. This week is a tougher one on the squad, but the extra days will also have been very important for Harry Kane to overcome an illness which likely would have kept him out if the game against West Ham United was played this weekend.

Back to back wins by three goal margins over Burnley and Southampton would have given Tottenham Hotspur a real belief that they can earn their place back in the top four. That confidence also should mean they have much of the play at the Liberty Stadium where Swansea City have struggled for consistency.

Even though they have lost 1 of their last 4 League games here, Swansea City are still very much the underdog here and I think Tottenham Hotspur will be too good.

Having a little more rest at this time of the season could be crucial for Spurs and I think they will be able to create enough chances to win this game by a comfortable margin. I am expecting Harry Kane to be ready to come in and play with the extra time to have overcome his illness and I think Tottenham Hotspur continue a strong run of results in this part of Wales.

Manchester United have won here twice and Manchester City have also won on this ground and both teams managed to do that by at least two goal margins. I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to do the same as they continue the fine momentum they are building up.


Manchester City v Watford Pick: It will be interesting to hear the injury news coming out of Manchester City after both Kevin De Bruyne and Gabriel Jesus were forced off on Sunday in the goalless draw at Crystal Palace. With David Silva also potentially missing, Manchester City have lost some key creative pieces of their attack and perhaps this offers a Watford a way into this match.

However the away side are short of confidence in recent weeks with defeats coming thick and fast and Manchester City are still likely to have the majority of the ball.

Watford have just struggled for goals in recent away games too as they have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 on their travels in the Premier League. That is a concern when you think Manchester City are likely to be a little more solid knowing they might not have the options available to create the usual amount of chances they would.

I did consider backing Manchester City to win a game that features less than four goals at a big price, but after a goalless game they might be more desperate to get things right. However the absence of De Bruyne and Silva would be a huge blow for Manchester City who may have to settle for a narrow win and that looks the most likely outcome of the fixture.

It feels like a game where Pep Guardiola will be a little pragmatic and look to secure a win by any means necessary as he prepares his squad for another big month. Without the two key midfield players, Manchester City may just struggle to create the same kind of chances as usual and it is those absences which lead me to back Manchester City to win with a clean sheet..

I am wary Watford could collapse, which could see Manchester City exploit them, but I am expecting a solid performance at the back from the home team. At odds against that is a decent enough price too and I think Manchester City will secure a narrow win here.


West Ham United v West Brom Pick: There has been a complaint made by West Brom that they have to play twice in three days, but those have fallen on deaf ears and Alan Pardew has to find a way to get a performance out of his players.

The request comes in the light of West Ham United having the weekend off, but The Hammers will now be playing twice in the next three days although I am sure David Moyes is much happier with his fixture list. For this game I would expect all the big names to be out there and perhaps more changes made for when West Ham United travel to Wembley to take on Tottenham Hotspur.

Anything else would be a surprise considering two of the bottom three clubs are meeting on Tuesday. It is a much tougher position for Pardew who admits he needs to make changes against one of his former clubs after seeing his team expend a lot of energy in earning a 1-1 result against Arsenal on Sunday.

Pardew has gotten West Brom playing some tough football of late though and that makes them a tough out for West Ham United despite the game being hosted in East London. However I do think the home team can bounce back from a couple of poor results having lost to Newcastle United and conceded late in a 3-3 draw at Bournemouth last week.

In saying that, I don't think there will be a lot between these teams and so keeping the stakes to a minimum would be wise. For all the effort West Ham United have produced, they won't find it easy to break down The Baggies and I am convinced Pardew would be happy to take a point right now.

A small interest in the home team is warranted because of the scheduling spot.


Arsenal v Chelsea Pick: The television cameras are at the Emirates Stadium for this big London derby as both Arsenal and Chelsea chase the points in their top four bids.

It feels like a bigger game for Arsenal whose only two failures to win at home in the Premier League have come against Manchester United and Liverpool, two teams currently inside the top four in the Premier League. Both Manchester United and Liverpool had 0-2 leads at the Emirates Stadium, although Arsenal were able to fight back for a 3-3 draw with The Reds.

Another start like that would be tough to overcome against a Chelsea team who have been in solid recent form. Eden Hazard was given a rest in the comfortable win over Stoke City on Saturday and Chelsea look in better all around shape for this fixture on Wednesday.

While they have a virtually full squad to choose from, Arsenal could be missing three of their regular back five, while Mesut Ozil looks like he is going to be absent for another fixture.

One concern for Chelsea has to be their recent run of results against Arsenal which has seen them win 1 of their last 5 against The Gunners. That includes a 2-1 loss in the FA Cup Final, while the two games between the clubs have both ended in draws in the 2017/18 season and that is a mental block that Chelsea have to overcome.

Chelsea did win at Tottenham Hotspur and earned a draw at Liverpool in the Premier League. They do look like they are in the form to perhaps snap their run against Arsenal and earn a rare recent victory over them although this won't be an easy game at the home of The Gunners.

However the absence of the likes of Laurent Koscielny and Mesut Ozil could swing things towards Chelsea and make it worth backing them on the Asian Handicap which would return the stake in the event of a draw.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: Pep Guardiola has become the latest manager to arrive in England and make some big complaints about the fixture list, but I can't imagine either Tottenham Hotspur or West Ham United are happy about the scheduling of this fixture.

The game will be played less than 48 hours after their last Premier League fixtures were completed and I do think the negative impact may fall on West Ham United's shoulders a little more.

Tottenham Hotspur had a relatively comfortable night at the Liberty Stadium, albeit in some awful conditions, and Harry Kane has a little more time to get ready to start this one. On the other hand West Ham United had to scratch and claw for the whole 90 minutes to come from behind and score a goal deep into injury time to beat West Brom on Tuesday.

The three points earned may make David Moyes believe he is in a better position to make changes for this one and I can see the manager setting up West Ham United to be difficult to beat and hope to take advantage of any frustrations Tottenham Hotspur begin to feel.

That won't be easy with Tottenham Hotspur in some fine form in recent weeks and I think Mauricio Pochettino will keep that going. A win would put Spurs right behind Liverpool in the tough battle for a top four finish and I think Kane is going to be chomping at the bit from the off in this one.

Kane has scored seven goals in his last six appearances against West Ham United and I think he will help Tottenham Hotspur record a win by a couple of goals on the night. I think at some point West Ham United will just tire off from the defending they are likely going to have to do just a couple of days after an emotional win and that will play a part as Spurs record another decent win at Wembley Stadium.

MY PICKS: Brighton-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.62 William Hill (2 Units)
Burnley-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Stoke City @ 2.37 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Manchester United - 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
West Ham United @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chelsea 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.86 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2017 (January 3rd)

The majority of the big names have begun their 2017 Tennis season as we reach the end of the First Round of the various tournaments being played around the world as preparations for the Australian Open continue.

I've never understood the positioning of the opening Grand Slam event of the season which begins in the third week of the new season but it does mean the year begins with a bang. However I would be working on having that event in Australia played in February at the earliest and that at least gives the players a month to build their rhythm and put some matches in the bank before heading to Melbourne Park.


The picks had a good start on the opening day of picks made in the 2017 season with the four players in action returning a 3-1 record. I will have four more picks from the Tuesday offering which can be read below.


Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 games v Julia Goerges: The opening match in the 2017 for Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Julia Goerges could have been easier for both players and this looks like a quality match in Auckland. This does look like a season in which both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will want to show some improvement on the Singles Tour especially the Russian player who had fewer wins in 2016 than she did in 2015.

You have to like what Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges can do on the court when producing their very best tennis, but suffice to say that the consistency is not at the level they would be expecting. The first serve is going to be key for both players as it gives them a chance to set up the points and dictate the rallies with both looking to produce the first big strike to move into control of the rallies.

It also has to be expected that both Pavlyuchenkova and Goerges will look to attack the second serves they see while both are also very comfortable at the net. I do think Goerges has the slightly stronger movement around the court, but Pavlyuchenkova has an edge in the power department.

It is the Russian's strength that I feel will be a difference maker in this First Round match and I think she will have a little more success at the big moments in this one. I do think Goerges can be a dangerous player when she is at her very best, but Pavlyuchenkova has the power to find a way to get the German on the back foot. After a battle through the first set, I will look for Pavlyuchenkova to come through with a 76, 64 win.


Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 games v Gerard Melzer: These two players meet in Doha at opposite ends of their career spectrum with Gerard Melzer doing enough on the Challenger circuit to build Ranking points to open this season on the regular Tour. It looks like Paul-Henri Mathieu is slipping down the World Rankings now he is close to turning 35 years old, but the desire remains for the Frenchman.

It is Melzer who comes into this match higher in the World Rankings than Mathieu, but the Frenchman is rightly favoured when you think of the limited tennis the Austrian plays on the hard courts. He almost exclusively plays on the clay courts and it will be interesting to see how Melzer copes playing at the highest level on a consistent basis for the first time in his career.

The layers have got the right favourite in the match, but Mathieu is not an overwhelming one because of his poor form over the last few months of the 2016 season. He is also a player that struggles with his consistency even more than a few years ago as age is perhaps getting the better of the Frenchman, but I still anticipate he is going to be too good for a player that really might have some tough experiences at this level.

Mathieu has to serve well and keep the foot down if he does get in front and I think he is capable of doing that in this match. It could potentially go the distance with the inconsistent performances Mathieu can produce within the same match, but I think the Frenchman moves through with a narrow cover of this number.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: There have been times I have seen Andrey Kuznetsov and seen the potential for this player to move into the top 20 of the World Rankings, but others when I wonder how he cracked into the top 100. 2017 will be a season in which Kuznetsov looks to produce more consistent results across the board to improve his current World Ranking, but he has a tough opener when facing Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in Doha.

It is also a difficult match for Tsonga who will be looking to try and move back up into the top 10 of the World Rankings this season having finished in the Number 12 spot last season. That was mainly down to injuries affecting his chances and I do think Tsonga is still a dangerous player on the Tour even if the consistency to challenge the very top players is a little erratic.

That was always the case for Tsonga even in his best years, but I do think he is still a steady enough player to maintain his position in the World Rankings through the course of the season. The big serve and forehand combination continues to make Tsonga very dangerous although he will need to be at his best to counter the Kuznetsov serve if he is going to make life a little easier in this one.

Getting a few more serves back in play will give Kuznetsov the chance to beat himself which can be the case with the risk taking Russian. With the power that Tsonga has to counter Kuznetsov, I think the higher Ranked player will end up having a little too much over two sets and come through with a 64, 64 win.


Tomas Berdych - 5.5 games v Alessandro Giannessi: Tomas Berdych had a couple of injury issues which prevented him from making it back to the ATP World Tour Finals in November, but I am not sure he is on a permanent regression down the World Rankings. The tournament in Doha is a chance for Berdych to show that he is still a force with the likes of Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic in the field, and I do think he can get the better of Alessandro Giannessi in this First Round match.

Berdych has to respect the fact that Giannessi has come through a couple of Qualifiers here impressively and the Italian is a left-handed player which does take a few games to get used to. He isn't going to overpower Berdych, but Giannessi has some quality shots in his arsenal and is likely to throw some surprises at his higher Ranked opponent with drop shots used where possible.

There were some struggles for Berdych at the back end of last season having won the title in Shenzhen and then going 2-4 in his final six matches before deciding to end his season. However I think the last few weeks will have given him time to get healthier and I think the power from his side of the court is going to put the pressure on Giannessi.

Some of the serving from Berdych in the second half of the season was not up to the standard you would expect from him and he needs to protect serve better than he did. Giving away any breaks in this one might make it too difficult to cover the number, but I think Berdych will have the majority of break point chances and can wear down Giannessi in a 64, 62 win.

MY PICKS: Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paul-Henri Mathieu - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 3-1, + 3.68 Units (8 Units Staked, + 46% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2017 (January 2-4)

The quick turnaround in the fixtures this week means I will concentrate on the Premier League games to be played and the picks can be found below for the latest round of fixtures to be played.


Manchester City v Burnley Pick: There are plenty of question marks about Pep Guardiola as Manchester City have struggled over the last couple of months for consistent results and performances. I was one who thought he might be surprised by the intensity of the English Premier League compared to where he had managed before, but Guardiola does need at least a couple of seasons to mould the squad from the one that Manuel Pellegrini left behind.

The loss to Liverpool hurt Manchester City and they can't really afford to finish outside of the top four of the Premier League table and miss the chance to play in the Champions League. However this game certainly gives them a really good chance to bounce back even if Burnley have had back to back confidence boosting wins to move into mid-table.

Burnley also surprised Manchester City two seasons ago by coming from 2-0 down to earn a draw at The Etihad Stadium, but this is a team that has struggled for goals away from home. The Manchester City defence is far from watertight, but I would expect them to dominate the ball and limit the opportunities the away side have.

Keeping clean sheets has been a problem for Manchester City that Guardiola needs to resolve, but I would expect the home team to earn one in this game. They did that against Watford in a home win a few weeks ago and Burnley haven't shown the same ability to score goals away from home as they have at Turf Moor.

The price is perhaps a little shorter than I anticipated, but one that can still be backed as I look for Manchester City to win this game with a clean sheet behind them.


Sunderland v Liverpool Pick: David Moyes could not hide his disgust in the way his Sunderland team played in the loss to Burnley on Saturday and this club looks doomed barring a miracle or heavy investment in the January transfer window. They have at least played better at home with 3 wins from their last 4 games at The Stadium of Light, but those have come against teams in the bottom half of the table.

On the other hand Sunderland have lost heavily against Everton and Arsenal here and then were a little unfortunate in the defeat to Chelsea. However injuries are piling up and their only real hope is that Liverpool are perhaps lacking some energy having kicked off in the late Saturday afternoon slot.

That was a concern for Jurgen Klopp when the fixtures for television were selected a few weeks ago, but he has to be feeling better with 4 wins in a row for his club. Liverpool have played well for the most part too and they have an attacking edge that is going to give Sunderland a lot of problems in this one.

Liverpool have won on three previous visits here and I think it would be a big surprise if they don't make it four in a row considering how Sunderland have played over the last week. They have been conceding too many goals and Liverpool have the players in the final third to expose the vulnerabilities.

The last two wins for Liverpool here have ended 0-1 but I think they win by a little wider margin and I will back the away side to cover the Asian Handicap. They won 0-3 at Middlesbrough a couple of weeks ago and I think Liverpool win this game by at least a two goal margin.


West Ham United v Manchester United Pick: All credit has to be given to Jose Mourinho who made the attacking and risky substitutions that neither David Moyes nor Louis Van Gaal would have made as manager of Manchester United if they had been in the dugout at 0-1 against Middlesbrough on Saturday.

It paid off for Mourinho as Manchester United won 2-1 and there is clearly some confidence being developed at Old Trafford with 12 games unbeaten and 6 wins in a row behind them. A Premier League game against Liverpool looms large in two weeks time, but Manchester United have three games prior to that and won't want to drop momentum before heading into that game.

This is a tough test for them against a West Ham United team who have shown improvement in recent games. The Hammers are playing better at The London Stadium and they have won 2 in a row here since being embarrassed by Arsenal.

However the performance against Hull City was far from up to the standard expected and a similar level to that might see Manchester United running rampant here. There are goals in the away side who have scored at least twice in 4 of their last 5 away games but Manchester United are slightly short for me to win this one.

I do think Manchester United will need to score at least twice to beat West Ham United who have scored in their last 7 home games in all competitions. That leads me to backing at least three goals to be scored knowing Manchester United could reach this total themselves if they produce their very best in front of goal and this is a fixture that generally does produce at least three goals.


Bournemouth v Arsenal Pick: This feels like it is a big month for Arsenal if they have genuine belief they can win the Premier League table with the fixtures scheduled ahead. Games at Bournemouth are not easy, but teams who want to be Champions have to win here and I think Arsenal can do that during the week.

The Gunners have a run of 4 winnable fixtures ahead of their League game against Chelsea early next month and will expect they can close the 9 point gap to The Blues who are leading the table. In that same time Chelsea have to play at Tottenham Hotspur and Liverpool so this is a big month ahead for Arsene Wenger who has insisted Arsenal are capable of winning the title again under his watch.

I do have to say that this is the kind of game that would have tripped up Arsenal in the past, but I also believe Bournemouth are the kind of open football team that will struggle against the top clubs. The 4-3 win over Liverpool is an exception to prove the rule because Bournemouth were down and out in that game at 1-3 and Liverpool looking likely to score a fourth.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all beaten Bournemouth this season and Arsenal have the kind of talent that will enjoy the spaces they are likely to be given. Bournemouth are a threat going the other way, but Arsenal are unlikely to blow a third away game in a row where they lead 0-1 and I think they close the show if they get in front.

Taking their chances will be key and not letting Bournemouth hang around as Liverpool ultimately did, but this is a team that were beaten by Sunderland and Southampton in recent games at The Vitality Stadium. I expect Arsenal will have too much on the day and I will back them to win at a decent price.


Tottenham Hotspur v Chelsea Pick: The 'Battle of Stamford Bridge' at the end of the 2015/16 season will be a memorable game for both Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea players and fans and there won't be any love lost even meeting this early in the season. It won't be lost on Tottenham Hotspur how much joy Chelsea had in stopping them win the title and I think this will be a game that many of the players have looked forward to.

The key for Antonio Conte and Mauricio Pochettino is to take some of the emotion out of the game in fear of losing players to sending offs in what is a very important game for both clubs. A win for Tottenham Hotspur will reignite the Premier League title race, but a win for Chelsea might have a number of people giving The Blues the title already.

I am not sure what I think of Chelsea.

I still believe they are a team that is not as strong as the 13 game winning run would suggest as they have rode their luck on a number of occasions in that time. They are now facing an in-form Tottenham Hotspur team who have been very good at White Hart Lane and scoring goals for fun and I do have a gut feeling the home team will pull the victory.

However they won't have it all of their own way as Tottenham Hotspur have not looked as secure defensively and I can see Chelsea posing a few problems of their own. While the teams have solid defensive stats from their home/away games respectively over the course of the season, I think this might be one that features at least three goals with both teams scoring at least once.

The layers are not sure this will be an open game, but I think they can match the three goals they shared out at Stamford Bridge with a gut feeling telling me that Tottenham Hotspur can be on the right side of the split this time.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win to Nil @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Chelsea Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)

December Final: 38-40, - 7.93 Units (153 Units Staked, - 5.18% Yield)

November Final: 40-38-3, + 5.76 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.62% Yield)
October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 180-185-8, + 2.77 Units (708 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)