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Showing posts with label Free National Championship Game Pick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Free National Championship Game Pick. Show all posts

Monday, 19 January 2026

College Football National Championship Pick 2026 (Monday 19th January)

It may not have been the game many would have predicted to round out the College Football season, but both the Miami Hurricanes and Indiana Hoosiers have proven their worth through the post-season.

The Big Ten Champions are the favourites, but the Hurricanes have played really well over the last several weeks and being the 'host' can certainly help.

Just like that, the College Football season is coming to a close on Monday as the National Championship Game determines who takes over from the Ohio State Buckeyes as the best team in College Football.


Indiana Hoosiers vs Miami Hurricanes Pick: This game is being played at the Hard Rock Stadium, which is the Miami Hurricanes (13-2) home, but you do have to feel that there is a significant gap for them to bridge against the Indiana Hoosiers (15-0). Has that fact that this is a 'home game' for the Hurricanes factored into the line set for the game? Possibly, but the Hoosiers have won everywhere this season and they are rightly down as strong favourites to win the National Championship.

There will be a lot of focus on the Miami Defense and whether they can do enough to keep the Hurricanes in this game and that is where a potential blowout will be determined in my opinion.

All eyes will be on the Miami pass rush, which has been critical in helping the team drive through the Playoff and into the National Championship Game- they will know they need to rattle Fernando Mendoza, who is set to be the first overall Pick in the next NFL Draft, and try and stall drives with the pressure that can be generated by a powerful Defensive Line.

It begins at the Line of Scrimmage where the Indiana Hoosiers have been decent at getting a push up front, but not expected to have a huge game running the ball. The Miami Defensive Line have continue to clamp down on the run and so the pressure is going to be on Fernando Mendoza to make plays with his arm.

However, for all of the successes the Hurricanes have had in bringing down the opposition Quarter Back, it shoudl be noted that Indiana have an Offensive Line capable of giving Mendoza the one or two extra seconds he will need to attack this Secondary.

And despite all that pressure generated at the Line of Scrimmage, it should be noted that there are gaps in the Miami Secondary that can be exposed by this efficient Indiana Offense.

All of this means that the Hoosers are going to be expected to get some points on the board and it will be up to Carson Beck and the Miami Offensive unit to try and make enough plays to keep up on the scoreboard.

Much like Indiana, the Miami Offensive Line is not expected to rip open consistent running lanes against a Hoosiers Defensive Line that have been stout up front all season. They will want to make sure they are forcing Carson Beck to beat them with his arm and like Indiana on the other side of the ball, Miami are expected to need to the Quarter Back to have a big game throwing in order to keep the chains moving.

He has shown he can do that, but Carson Beck is not going to have a clean pocket- the Miami pass rush has grabbed the headlines, but these Indiana pass rushers are no slouches and they have made multiple hits on the opposition Quarter Back during the last several games. Adding up is the number of Sacks they have also produced and Miami's Offensive Line may not offer the same sort of time as Indiana potentillay give to Fernando Mendoza.

Carson Beck has also not been nearly as confident as Mendoza, despite his own College experience being substantial, and that is where the spread may end up getting away from the Hurricanes. The Quarter Back has been avoiding critical turnovers, but Beck is likely going to be asked to make plenty of throws under pressure and the Miami passing game has not been as consistent as the one Indiana will be bringing onto the field.

The Hurricanes are plenty talented and so will have some successes, but the consistency could be lacking and even being at home may not be enough against a powerful Indiana team looking to win a first Football National Championship.

Miami have beaten Ohio State during this Playoff run, which has to be respected by the Hoosiers who play in the same Conference as the Buckeyes and know how good they are. On that day it was the Miami Defensive unit that made some big plays, but Head Coach Curt Cignetti should have prepared his Indiana team to avoid his team shooting themselves in the foot as Ohio State did.

Covering will not be easy, but the feeling is that the Indiana Hoosiers will pull into a double digit lead at the top of the Fourth Quarter and then make a couple of big Defensive plays to move into a position to win and cover.

MY PICK: Indiana Hoosiers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Semi Final: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.26 Units (4 Units Staked, - 6.50% Yield)
First Round Playoff: 3-1, + 1.67 Units (4 Units Staked, + 41.75% Yield)
Week 15: 2-2, - 0.29 Units (4 Units Staked, - 7.25% Yield)
Week 14: 5-2-1, + 2.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 30.50% Yield)
Week 13: 3-3, - 0.35 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.83% Yield
Week 12: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.09 Units (6 Units Staked, - 68.17% Yield)
Week 10: 3-3, - 0.33 Units (6 Units Staked, - 5.50% Yield)
Week 9: 3-3, - 0.19 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.17% Yield)
Week 8: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 7: 4-1, + 2.62 Units (5 Units Staked, + 52.40% Yield)
Week 6: 2-4, - 2.22 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37% Yield)
Week 5: 1-5, - 4.20 Units (6 Units Staked, - 70% Yield)
Week 4: 2-4, - 2.14 Units (6 Units Staked, - 35.67% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, - 0.36 (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 1: 1-4, - 3.14 Units (5 Units Staked, - 62.80% Yield)
Week 0: 2-1, + 0.75 Units (3 Units Staked, + 25% Yield)

Monday, 20 January 2025

College Football Pick- National Championship 2025 (Monday 20th January)

The new College Football Playoff has changed the way we lead up into the National Championship Game, but we have got here and it looks like a decent game between two schools that have overcome some adversity during the course of the season.

The off-season is going to bring changes in College Football and we might even here about any extension to the Playoff format, while all eyes will be on North Carolina and whether they can retain Bill Belichick as Head Coach.

It has been a fun season for the fans to enjoy, but all comes to a conclusion with a new Champion set to be crowned when the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish face off.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The new College Football Playoff format will be considered a success, although there maybe some tweaks and an expansion over the coming years.

The first twelve team Playoff ends on Monday with the National Championship Game and it looks a good one.

Both the Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) played in the First Round of the post-season and they have each beaten three opponents.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee Volunteers at home before earning revenge over the Oregon Ducks, the Big Ten Champions, in the Quarter Final. They were not as dominant, despite the score, in the win over the Texas Longhorns, but the Ohio State Buckeyes will feel they are pretty well tested ahead of the National Championship as a talented group peak at just the right time.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish have beaten two Big Ten opponents on their way to the National Championship Game and that will give them plenty of confidence that this season can end with a trophy to parade. The blowout of the Indiana Hoosiers was expected, but the tough, battling win over the Penn State Nittany Lions just underlined the belief in this Fighting Irish team.

Beating the SEC Champions Georgia, albeit with a backup Quarter Back, will have deepened that belief and Notre Dame have to be respected for gritting their way through to the National Championship Game. Injuries have piled up, which is something those in the Playoff Committee will have noted, but the Fighting Irish continue to rally together and 'next man up' mentality is helping them.

This is the hardest of tests for Notre Dame with the Buckeyes finally looking like they are playing at the level that most expected from them before a ball had been kicked off, and it may not be the best match up Offensively.

The Fighting Irish want to lean on the Offensive Line, but the Playoff performances have been more challenging for them as they have opened up holes for 4.1 yards per carry. However, Notre Dame are not going to want to move too far away from the plan, and that is a problem when going up against this Ohio State Defensive Line, which has played at a really high level in the post-season.

Riley Leonard would love to throw the ball to open the running lanes, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quarter Back has not really been as consistent with the step up in level of competition. There has been some success throwing the ball against the Buckeyes, but that is because teams have needed to take risks and Leonard and company may get into a vicious cycle if they have to move away from the run.

It would also mean trying to stop the fierce Ohio State pass rush that has penetrated the backfield and Riley Leonard has been put under duress during the Notre Dame run to the National Championship Game. That pressure has led to some turnovers and the Ohio State Buckeyes have to be very confident about what they can do when the Fighting Irish have the ball, especially with further injuries on the Notre Dame Offensive Line.

In saying that, Notre Dame are going to be confident they can make enough plays on the Defensive side of the ball to keep this one competitive and give them a chance of earning the upset.

Extra preparation time should mean the Fighting Irish are ready to challenge this very productive Ohio State Offense, which has found considerable balance.

Moving the ball on the ground against the Fighting Irish Defensive Line with any consistency will not be easy, but this Ohio State team will be confident they can rip open some big plays to keep the team balanced, which is so important in these potentially tight, competitive Defensive battles.

Will Howard is certainly the stronger passer of the two Quarter Backs taking to the field and he has some hugely talented playmakers around him. Assuming the Fighting Irish are going to try and limit the impact of Jeremiah Smith, others have shown they can step up for their Quarter Back and make the plays that keep the chains moving down the field.

There are some big injuries on this side of the ball for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to deal with and even Head Coach Marcus Freeman's strong record when having time to prepare looks like it may not be good enough to keep his team within the spread.

He will make sure Notre Dame remain competitive, but the likelihood is that the Ohio State Buckeyes use their talent to wear down a Notre Dame team missing a lot of important players on both sides of the ball. Head Coach Ryan Day is under some pressure to bring home the National Championship, but his Buckeyes team look to have peaked at the right time and they can cover on their way to a very successful season, a loss to Michigan aside.

MY PICK: Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Playoff Semi Final: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Playoff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)
Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Monday, 10 January 2022

College Football Picks 2022- National Championship Game 2021 (January 10th 2022)

The College Football season comes to a conclusion on Monday with two SEC teams competing for the right to be called National Champions.

Four of the last seven Champions have come out of the SEC and this is going to be the second time two from the same Conference are competing for the National honours (the only other time in the PlayOff era was also competed between the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide).


It has been a relatively successful season for the College Football Picks, although one more win in the National Championship Game would make it a good season. Coming away from a season with a profit can't be ignored, but there is a big difference between a winning and losing end to the 2021 season and that will be determined by the National Championship Game on Monday 10th January.


Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The SEC Championship Game featured the same two teams that dominated the College Football PlayOff games in December and a rematch is set between the Georgia Bulldogs (13-1) and the Alabama Crimson Tide (13-1). Both teams won their Semi Final games without really feeling much pressure thanks to strong Defensive outings, and the familiarity with one another should make this a fascinating rematch.

Since the introduction of the College Football four team PlayOff, this is only the second time two teams from the same Conference will be facing each other for the National Championship title. The last time was in the 2017 season when the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide faced one another too, but on that occasion the teams had not played one another in the SEC Championship Game before meeting in the National Championship Game too.

This time the rematch is taking place less than a month since the teams met in Atlanta in a Championship Game that saw the Alabama Crimson Tide pull away for the upset win. The Bulldogs led early as the relatively big favourite, but the Crimson Tide dominated the middle of the SEC Championship Game, although the layers still have Georgia down as the favourite in this National Championship Game too.

We have crossed one key number since the last game between these two SEC rivals, but the Alabama Crimson Tide are still receiving as much as a Field Goal start and that looks important. They have dominated the Georgia Bulldogs in recent times and Kirby Smart has yet to get the better of Nick Saban in his seven seasons as Head Coach in Athens.

That has to be playing a factor in this National Championship Game considering the experience Nick Saban has in winning these big games, although you do have to imagine that the Bulldogs players have learned plenty when losing the SEC Championship Game. That was a chance for Georgia to not only pick up the Conference Championship, but it might also have been enough to eliminate the Crimson Tide before the PlayOff teams were selected and the Bulldogs may have missed a trick.

Georgia will need to get more out of the Offensive unit if they are going to win this National Championship- they struggled to find consistency running the ball agains the Crimson Tide in the first meeting and I think that is going to be a huge challenge for them considering how well the Alabama Defensive Line have played down the stretch.

It puts a lot of pressure on Stetson Bennett at Quarter Back and his two Interceptions thrown in the SEC Championship Game defeat to the Crimson Tide was a big factor in the loss. The Quarter Back was under pressure from the Alabama pass rush on that day too thanks to the inability to find consistent running lanes and I think Bennett could be facing something similar in this National Championship Game too.

Turnovers are bound to be key in this game and it was a clean game from Bryce Young in the SEC Championship Game that underlined the strong performance from the Quarter Back on the day. Like the Bulldogs, Alabama struggled to find consistency running the ball, but Bryce Young was very good at Quarter Back as he piled up 421 yards with three passing Touchdowns.

I think there is an opportunity for Bryce Young to back up that performance after seeing one or two holes in the Georgia Secondary in their last few games, holes he exposed really well in the SEC Championship Game. Bryce Young is someone who I believe can handle the pressure that comes with facing a pass rush more effectively than Stetson Bennett and I think the Crimson Tide will be highly motivated by being set as the underdog again.

The underdog is now 7-1 against the spread in the last eight games between these teams.

Alabama are also 5-1 against the spread in their last six games as the underdog and I do think the team will look at the odds and wonder why they are not being given more respect having won the SEC Championship Game as handily as they did.

Kirby Smart has a very strong record against the spread when Coaching with revenge as Georgia will have after losing last month to Alabama. They blew out Florida with revenge earlier this season, but the rematch with Alabama last month was also a revenge setting for the Bulldogs and there is the pressure of being a favourite in this one which may just weigh heavy on the Georgia sidelines.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide + 3 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Bowl Games: 13-11, + 1.66 Units (24 Units Staked, + 6.92% Yield)
Week 14: 4-5, - 1.52 Units (9 Units Staked, - 16.89% Yield)
Week 13: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 12: 6-2, + 3.46 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.25% Yield)
Week 11: 5-4, + 0.73 Units (9 Units Staked, + 8.11% Yield)
Week 10: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 9: 5-3, + 1.25 Units (8 Units Staked, + 15.63% Yield)
Week 8: 3-5, - 2.57 Units (8 Units Staked, - 32.13% Yield)
Week 7: 5-4, + 0.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.56% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.27 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 5: 5-6, - 1.41 Units (11 Units Staked, - 12.82% Yield)
Week 4: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.44 Units (8 Units Staked, + 18% Yield)
Week 2: 7-3, + 3.45 Units (10 Units Staked, + 34.50% Yield)
Week 1: 5-6-1, - 1.45 Units (12 Units Staked, - 12.08% Yield)

2021 Season: 78-68-1, + 3.20 Units (147 Units Staked, + 2.18% Yield)

Monday, 11 January 2021

College Football National Championship Game Pick (January 11th)

The Bowl Picks worked out pretty well over the last month, but the College Football PlayOffs were another thing altogether.

One Pick I got completely wrong, while I was undone by a backdoor cover in the other. With the National Championship wrapping up the 2020 season, I am hoping for better.


Alabama Crimson Tide vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Two blow out wins in the College Football PlayOff Semi Finals have taken the Alabama Crimson Tide and Ohio State Buckeyes into the National Championship Game. Both teams are unbeaten, although the Crimson Tide knocked off the Notre Dame Fighting Irish as a big favourite a couple of weeks ago.

Things were different for the Buckeyes who were an underdog against the Clemson Tigers, but rammed back taunts of not being considered in the top ten for best teams in the nation when crushing them. The Ohio State Buckeyes never looked like losing, let alone failing to cover, but the layers are not convinced that they will be able to keep up with the Crimson Tide who have looked like one of the stronger editions of what has become a regularly National Championship contender.

There are some factors at play which are hard to really gauge as to how important they could potentially become- the Buckeyes have had a number of Covid-19 outbreaks throughout the 2020 season and are rumoured to be suffering another which had some believing the Championship Game could have to be moved, but they are going to go on Monday as far as it sounds.

Ohio State have shown they can manage those outbreaks and not lose any momentum, but there is also the injury suffered by Quarter Back Justin Fields in the win over Clemson Tigers which may limit him. On the other hand you do have to wonder if the Buckeyes are peaking at the right time with a short season meaning they are heading towards the peak of the performance compared with the Alabama Crimson Tide who have already come through a number of very tough games to remain unbeaten.

The Crimson Tide have won 12 games this season compared with Ohio State's 7 games and so there is more wear and tear on their team, but Nick Saban is not going to be concerning himself about excuses nor giving Ohio State any bulletin board material like Dabo Swinney did before the Clemson Tigers were beaten very easily.

The injury to Justin Fields could be critical because there is a feeling he won't be able to run as much as he might have done if at full health. It did not slow him down against the Tigers, but the Alabama Crimson Tide won't have to make in-game adjustments to Fields as they are likely going to anticipate him being at his best, but also planning for how they will defend against Fields if he is not at 100%.

I still think you have to respect Justin Fields who will be keen to remind people why he was considered one of the top two Quarter Backs coming out into the NFL Draft. Some have suggested he might have slipped behind Zach Wilson in the scouting reports, but Justin Fields can turn all that talk on its head with a strong performance in the National Championship Game even if the Buckeyes were to come up short.

As well as the Crimson Tide have played all season, we have seen the likes of Ole Miss and Florida have success throwing the ball down the field against this Secondary. Justin Fields has the talent around him to have success in this game too and I think there will be chances for the Buckeyes to move the ball, although Alabama will be well Coached and there is no less talent here that can make some big plays for the favourites.

Mobility is going to be the key for Fields as he looks to make sure he can stay away from the much respected Alabama pass rush that should be able to get through this Ohio State Offensive Line. If Justin Fields can at least move better than he looked like he could in the second half against the Clemson Tigers, it will be a big boost for Ohio State who will be looking to dominate the line of scrimmage as the did against the Tigers.

After establishing the run in the manner they did against the Tigers, I have to give the Ohio State Offensive Line enough respect to think they could so the same against Alabama and that despite how strong the Crimson Tide Defensive Line has been up front. It could be all important to the outcome on this side of the ball as any one-dimensional Offense is going to have problems against Alabama, but Ohio State should be able to make this a competitive game.

The line of scrimmage is massively important on both sides of the ball, because the Buckeyes are coming in off a game in which they really forced Clemson to lean on Trevor Lawrence. Now Lawrence may be going into the NFL as the next great generational Quarter Back, but the Buckeyes were able to slow down the Tigers without the balance they would usually have relied upon and I think that is going to be very important for them here.

Alabama have quality talent throughout their skill positions and it is difficult to believe the Crimson Tide will see Najee Harris shut down completely, but I do think he will have to work for his yards. The question is whether I believe Ohio State can shut down the run to the extent they did against Clemson? Realistically I do not think that will happen with the talent Alabama have on their Offensive Line, but the fact I have to ask the question means it could see the Crimson Tide needing Mac Jones to loosen the line of scrimmage.

Mac Jones has played so well in 2020 and I do think some fans will have forgotten about Tua Tagovailoa, but no one is going to dispute the amount of talent he has to throw to. DeVonta Smith won the Heisman Trophy and the Wide Receiver looks like one that is going to have a huge impact at the next level, while Alabama may also be boosted by the return of Jaylen Waddle who has been listed as Questionable.

The Buckeyes Secondary has given up some big numbers throughout the season, but they have also been able to make big plays to turn momentum when they have needed to. One concern has to be the lack of consistent pass rush pressure and that may give Mac Jones the kind of time that will make Alabama very difficult to stop when you think of the kind of players he will be throwing to in this game.

I think Alabama will win this game, but you can't ignore the possibility of a backdoor cover.

Having more than a Touchdown of points with a team as good as Ohio State does look appealing and they are 19-7 against the spread in their last twenty-six games as the underdog. That includes winning outright against the Tigers in the College Football PlayOffs while Ohio State are also 6-2 against the spread in their last eight post-season games.

I was undone by a backdoor cover when the Alabama Crimson Tide crushed the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Crimson Tide have not covered in their last four National Championship Games.

However Alabama are 7-2 against the spread in their last nine games as the favourite and I do think they are the superior team and won't underestimate Ohio State. I have a feeling that Clemson did that to some extent and motivated the Buckeyes by disrespecting them in the build up to that PlayOff Game, but Nick Saban won't do that and his team look to be stronger than Ohio State.

I expect the Buckeyes issues in the Secondary to be highlighted here and they may not have as much joy across the lines of scrimmage as they did against Clemson. Justin Fields may show why he is considered one of the top players coming out in the next NFL Draft, but Mac Jones has the talent around him to out-perform Fields and lead the Crimson Tide to another National Championship title.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Sunday, 12 January 2020

College Football National Championship Game 2020- LSU Tigers vs Clemson Tigers (January 13th)


The National Championship Game is ready to go this Monday and I have to say I could not have wished for a better one than this between the two Tigers of LSU and Clemson who have looked the best two teams in the nation. That is no disrespect to the Ohio State Buckeyes and Oklahoma Sooners who were both beaten in the Semi Final Bowl Games, but the defending National Champion against the best the SEC have to offer is the perfect way to the end what has been yet another fabulous season.

Some of the very best names in College Football are involved in this game and do not be surprised if the Quarter Backs playing in this National Championship Game are selected Number 1 Overall in the next two NFL Drafts. Joe Burrow of the LSU Tigers is almost certainly going in that position in a couple of months time, while Trevor Lawrence of the Clemson Tigers will be projected into the Number 1 Overall slot in most Mock Drafts as soon as he declares himself eligible to leave for the professional ranks.

It is perhaps no surprise that the Clemson Tigers are set as the underdog having had an easier schedule for much of the season. They were also pushed to the limit by the Buckeyes in their Semi Final win compared with the LSU Tigers who blew out the Oklahoma Sooners without being tested. In fact the LSU Tigers have not really been pushed since their impressive road win over the Alabama Crimson Tide and I can imagine there will be plenty of enthusiasm in backing a team like that.

Joe Burrow has been in fantastic form all season and there has to be the encouragement of seeing the Clemson Secondary give up one or two big plays in the win over the Buckeyes. For much of the season that Secondary hasn't been tested like they would have been against Ohio State and this is another step up when facing LSU who are the first Offensive team to have a 5000 yard passer along with TWO 1000 yard Wide Receivers and a Running Back with 1000 yards on the ground.

Stopping LSU looks an almost impossible task, but Clemson will have faith in the Defensive Line to at least reduce the chances of Clyde Edwards-Helaire from taking over on the ground. If they can at least force LSU to have to make plays from third and long from time to time, Clemson do have the pass rush which can at least try and rattle a Quarter Back having the best year of his life by some distance.

With that in mind I do think Joe Burrow will have a strong game and that is going to put some pressure on Clemson's Trevor Lawrence to keep up in what could be something of a shoot out. If the game had taken place a few weeks ago you might have been more confident in Clemson being able to do that, but the LSU Defensive unit finished the season in very strong form to underline that this is a more complete team than some of the PlayOff Committee members originally believed.

Travis Etienne has to establish the run in this one for the Clemson Offensive unit to have the kind of success they will likely need to win a second National Championship in a row. This year the Running Back has been a huge success both punishing the ball on the ground and also as a safety blanket for Lawrence and in screen plays. Those are all areas in which Etienne has to come up big on Monday evening if the Tigers are going to win this game, but they are facing a LSU Defensive Line which has clamped down on teams and held them to 2.9 yards per carry in their last three games which include the SEC Championship Game and College Football Semi Final.

The Clemson Offense might have a bit more success as Trevor Lawrence has to be respected, while he has also shown he can move the chains with his legs from the Quarter Back position. Trevor Lawrence is one of the elite Quarter Backs in College Football, but he will have to be at his very best to hurt this LSU Secondary which has also improved down the stretch.

Like their counterparts, Clemson know they have to find a way to run the ball to just ease the LSU pass rush which will believe they can get on top if they hold Clemson to third and long and obvious passing downs.

No team has won back to back National Championships since the forming of the College Football PlayOffs and that does go against Clemson here. However Clemson have beaten Alabama from the SEC twice in National Championship Games in the new format and the underdog has covered in all five previous National Championship Games played.

Clemson are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten as the underdog and they are 17-4 against the spread in their last twenty-one games played on neutral fields. The LSU Tigers have some strong trends and getting in front of a freight train like this one can be very difficult to do, but I like the experience of this Clemson team and I think they can at least keep this one close.

It should be a very good National Championship Game and more likely to go down the route of three of the previous five runnings which have been decided by 5 points or fewer. Last year Clemson did blow out the Alabama Crimson Tide as an underdog, but I can't see this one going that way and instead will take the points with the defending National Champions.

Joe Burrow versus Trevor Lawrence- I say get the popcorn out and enjoy the big game on Monday night.

MY PICKS: Clemson Tigers + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Monday, 8 January 2018

College Football National Championship Game Pick- Alabama vs Georgia (January 8th)

National Championship Game- Alabama Crimson Tide vs Georgia Bulldogs

The SEC is going to provide yet another National Champion, but it will be interesting to see if the Conference Champion Georgia Bulldogs can knock off an annual National Championship contender in the Alabama Crimson Tide. The Crimson Tide didn't even win their Division this season, but they have been credited for their body of work by being allowed into the College Football Play Off and they are favoured to win the National Championship.

The Crimson Tide dominated the defending National Champions Clemson Tigers in their 'Semi Final', while the Georgia Bulldogs came from a huge deficit to knock off the Oklahoma Sooners. The more convincing performance definitely came from Alabama, but injuries continue to decimate the team and the Georgia Bulldogs are good enough to take advantage.

Much of the game will be decided on the line of scrimmage as the Bulldogs look for their strong Running Back duo to try and get the better of an Alabama Defensive Line which have been stout all season. If the Bulldogs can open some holes, Sonny Michel and Nick Chubb will feel they are able to gain big yards when hitting the second line of Defense as Alabama are down to second and third string Linebackers.

Alabama will try and control things up front and prevent those holes being developed, but I do like Georgia being able to make some big plays. Much could also depend on Jake Fromm at Quarter Back who has to make the Crimson Tide Defensive unit respect his ability to make plays through the air, but I do think the Bulldogs will have success in this one.

The same can be said for Alabama from an Offensive point of view, especially as they should be able to run the ball effectively in this one. The Georgia Defensive Line have had some problems stopping the run in recent games and Jalen Hurts is also a Quarter Back who is able to make plays with his legs which could cause problems for the Bulldogs.

The Georgia Secondary have played well and they do get some pressure up front, but they may not be able to rattle Hurts who is capable of making plays while looking after the ball. Hurts takes criticism but he isn't someone who will lose the game for Alabama and that could be all important in this National Championship Game.

An 'X factor' in this game could be Head Coach Kirby Smart who spent a long time on the staff under Nick Saban including at Alabama prior to becoming the Head Coach for the Georgia Bulldogs. There has to be some familiarity of the systems which can be passed onto his players and Smart should know the best way to slow down the Crimson Tide Offensive unit, although it will be a tough task for Georgia anyway.

At the moment all the money is also on the Crimson Tide to win another National Championship under Nick Saban. The public are also behind them, but I think the Georgia Bulldogs can be backed with the start on the handicap here.

I think the Defensive injuries for the Crimson Tide could give Georgia the chance to make some big Offensive plays. The two Running Backs should be able to give the Bulldogs a chance to win what could be a low scoring game as the teams chew up the clock behind their Offensive Lines.


It should be a close game and Georgia may just earn the upset to take home an unexpected title.

MY PICKS: Georgia Bulldogs + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Monday, 9 January 2017

College Football National Championship Game Pick 2017 (January 9th)

For the second time in a row, the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide have worked their way through the regular season and the Play Offs to reach the National Championship Game.

Both teams dominated their Play Off Semi Finals and this is the rematch that has really got the casual fans interested to see whether there has been an improvement in the Tigers team to turn things around from last season when they came up just short.


Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The Las Vegas bookmakers have admitted that most of the money has come down on the side of the Clemson Tigers both on the Money Line and Against the Spread which has surprised them. Usually the Alabama Crimson Tide would be a big favourite for the casual fans looking for a weekend flutter, but the performance of the Tigers last season in the National Championship Game as well as the manner in which they blew out the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Semi Final this season.

In saying that, the Tigers have not faced too many teams of the level of the Alabama Crimson Tide who have won their last twenty-six games in a row. That is an incredibly strong run and even the decision to fire Lane Kiffin and replace him with Steve Sarkisian for the National Championship Game is not likely to see a big drop off from the production.

It is the Alabama Defensive unit who have laid the foundations for their successes in the Nick Saban era and this current crop of players have reached the standards set by their predecessors. It all begins up front where the Crimson Tide have shut down the running options for their opponents consistently over the course of the season which may mean Wayne Gallman is not going to have a big game.

Of course it is possible that Deshaun Watson is able to run the ball like he has from the Quarter Back position, but it looks like a game where he will need to be throwing the ball at his very best. Watson was very, very good in the National Championship Game a year ago and threw for over 400 yards in that narrow loss to the Crimson Tide and may need similar numbers again if he is going to lead the Tigers to an upset.

Watson has the Receivers to make big plays against Alabama and I do think he will have some success, but the Quarter Back has to make sure he avoids the Interceptions which have blighted him through the season. He had two Interceptions against the Ohio State Buckeyes in the Semi Final which has to be a concern, while Watson could find the backfield flooded by the pass rush Alabama have generated in recent games which will only increase the pressure on the Quarter Back.

Running the ball effectively is how the Alabama Crimson Tide like to lay the foundations for their own success and I think they are going to have a little more joy doing that than the Clemson Tigers. The Alabama Offensive Line has been very strong at paving the way for the Running Backs this season and there have been one or two moments when Clemson's Defensive Line have just had problems closing all of the holes up front.

Being able to establish the run is going to be very important for Alabama to keep the pressure off of Jalen Hurts at Quarter Back. The Freshman only had to throw for 57 yards in the win over the Washington Huskies on New Year's Eve and Hurts might have a few chances to make some plays in the passing game if the run is forcing Clemson to bring more men up to the line of scrimmage to stop Alabama.

Both teams will believe they have every chance of winning this National Championship, but I do give the edge to the Alabama Crimson Tide. I don't think they make the same mistakes as the Ohio State Buckeyes did in their loss to Clemson and the Crimson Tide have been a covering machine this season thanks to their impressive Defensive performances.

Last season it took a score with 12 seconds remaining for the Clemson Tigers to force the cover, but I think they will struggle to stay with Alabama this time around. I expect Watson throws a couple of Interceptions which allows the Crimson Tide to wear down the Tigers and win yet another National Championship.

I expect Watson will have his moments too, but the Alabama juggernaut keeps rolling and I will back them to cover in this one behind a grind it out run game.

MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Sunday, 10 January 2016

College Football National Championship Game Pick 2016 (Monday 11th January)

The entire College Football season has come down to the final game of the season as the National Championship is decided between a team that has plenty of experience against one that is surprisingly unbeaten.

I think this is the National Championship we deserve to see before another seven month wait to see it all happen again.

The best of luck to both teams, I hope they can produce a classic.


Alabama Crimson Tide v Clemson Tigers Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide and Clemson Tigers came through their Play Off 'Semi Finals' on New Year's Eve to reach the National Championship Game in Phoenix. Out of the two teams, the Clemson Tigers certainly had the more impressive win as the underdog against the Oklahoma Sooners, but you can't take anything away from the way Alabama dominated the Michigan State Spartans later that same day.

While there will be plenty of Sooners fans who believe their team deserved to be here, I think most neutral fans would be happy with the two teams we have competing this National Championship Game.

The layers have given the edge to Alabama, but I am not sure that Clemson don't feel the happiest when they are set as the underdog. Both teams will be unconcerned with how people view them and Nick Saban and Dabo Swinney will be looking to prepare their teams as best as possible for a huge game for both schools.

You won't be having to look too far to see some of the players that will be making an impact at the NFL level in the years to come and two of the top three Heisman Trophy finishers in action in this one. Which of the teams will be ready to take advantage of their Offensive weapons to win this game and take home the National Championship trophy?

It won't be a big surprise to Clemson as to what the Crimson Tide are going to want to do on Offense- they will look to establish the run and keep Quarter Back Jake Coker in third and manageable spots where he has thrived. Coker has been more than a game manager in recent games, but the key for Alabama is establishing the run through Derrick Henry and, to a lesser extent, Kenyan Drake.

Henry won the Heisman Trophy after rushing for over 2000 yards on the season and he will be given the rock plenty of times in this one even if it means wearing down the Clemson Defensive Line. The Tigers have been solid against the run, but not impenetrable and I think Henry and Drake will both have their successes to make sure Alabama are kept in manageable down and distance, which is hugely important to Coker.

That will also help negate a powerful Clemson pass rush, although the Tigers potentially will be missing Shaq Lawson on that front too, and allow Coker the time to make his plays. Being left in third and long will be tough for Alabama to convert on a regular basis with the pass rush Clemson have been able to get through the course of the season even if Lawson is out.

A few seasons ago we saw Johnny Manziel rip Alabama with his brand of a read Offense being able to make plays both with his arm and legs, and Deshaun Watson is more than capable of replicating that as the Clemson Quarter Back. Watson has over 3600 passing yards and 1000 rushing yards on the season, but Saban figured out Manziel the second time he played him and should be more prepared to find a way to slow down Watson in this one.

The big question for Clemson is are they going to be able to run the ball against Alabama who have been so strong against the run all season. Wayne Gallman and Watson both had over 1000 rushing yards on the season, but the Crimson Tide have given up just 2.3 yards per carry on the year and it could be the key to the whole game as to which Line wins that battle.

Shutting down the run has allowed Alabama to tee off on the pass rush in recent games, but Watson might be a little more elusive at Quarter Back than anyone they have seen. Watson's ability to move has meant the Offensive Line has looked good in pass protection, but this Crimson Tide Secondary has also played well through the course of the season and particularly over their last three games.

The turnover battle is going to be all important in these really big games and that is an area where I think Alabama also have the edge. Coker has had more success looking after the ball in the passing game, while fumbles have been an issue at times for the Clemson Tigers.

I love what the Tigers have achieved this season, but Alabama look incredibly strong and I think Saban's experience in the big game is another edge for the SEC Champions. I can see them wearing down the Clemson Tigers in the second half and their Defensive unit making a couple of big plays to slow down Deshaun Watson to help Alabama pull clear and take the National Championship trophy home yet again.

While I do think it will be close for a while, I expect Alabama to pull away in the second half and cover the spread.

MY PICK: Alabama Crimson Tide - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Monday, 12 January 2015

College Football National Championship Game 2015 (January 12)

The Semi Final of the inaugural College Football Play Offs were played on New Year's Day and that means the Oregon Ducks and the Ohio State Buckeyes will be heading to Dallas and Jerry's World for the National Championship Game.

I actually think this is going to be a really good game and I think both teams deserve their opportunity to compete for the biggest prize in College Football and a chance to give themselves a place in history.


Oregon Ducks v Ohio State Buckeyes: If the old BCS system was still in place from last season, it is arguable that the two losing teams in the first ever College Football Play Off Semi Finals would have been the ones invited to compete for the National Championship. An unbeaten Florida State Seminoles, who were also defending Champions, and the Alabama Crimson Tide, the overwhelming choice for Number 1 team in the nation, were both beaten in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl Semi Final games although one was far more unexpected than the other.

While the Florida State Seminoles were a big underdog, the Crimson Tide were very much expected to deal with the Ohio State Buckeyes (13-1) who were still playing third string Quarter Back Cardale Jones. However, for the second game in a row, Jones failed to feel the pressure he should do in that position and helped the Buckeyes win two games as an underdog in his first two starts.

It will be another big challenge for Jones and the Buckeyes as they take on the Oregon Ducks (13-1) who crushed Florida State in a quite unbelievable third quarter when everything went wrong for the Seminoles. Marcus Mariota won the duel against Jameis Winston and may already have confirmed his place as the Number 1 Draft pick in the NFL later in the year.

Scoring points hasn't been a problem for the Ducks since their sole defeat to the Arizona Wildcats and they have won 9 straight games since then with at least 42 points per game. Mariota is one of the major weapons for the team, but he will be facing a challenge against this Ohio State Defense, especially after two of his top Receiving weapons were ruled out of the game.

Devon Allen was injured in the Rose Bowl win over Florida State and that means his almost 700 yards and 7 Touchdowns are out of the game. Matters have become a little worse after Darren Corrington was ruled ineligible by Oregon and that rules out his 700 yards and 4 Touchdowns from the game too.

The speed of the Oregon Offense will still create issues for the Buckeyes Defense, but the Secondary has played well this season by holding teams to fewer than 200 passing yards per game. Without Allen and Corrington, Ohio State have to feel better about their chances and the Oregon Offensive Line, which has played better towards the end of the season thanks to improved health on that unit, will be tested by a very strong pass rush led by Joey Bosa and Michael Bennett.

The pressure and penetration that Bosa and Bennett have helped Ohio State create has seen the Secondary also excel at creating turnovers as Vonn Bell has picked up 6 Interceptions from Safety and Doran Grant has 5 Interceptions from Corner Back. The Buckeyes have 32 turnovers this season and 43 Sacks and will try and take Mariota out of his comfort zone has he looks at a different Receiving unit than he has been used to.

Mariota can lean on a strong running game to try and make life a little easier as his has a decent set of wheels himself, but can also hand off to Royce Freeman and Thomas Tyner. These three players have all contributed to Oregon averaged 5.5 yards per carry and producing 241 yards per game on the ground, but will be tested by the Ohio State Buckeyes who have only allowed 3.9 yards per carry.

Cardale Jones may have received some rave reviews in the way he has played for Ohio State at Quarter Back in relief of JT Barrett who was relieving the injured Braxton Miller. It is almost certain Miller transfers to another school before next season, but Jones can really press to keep his starting berth ahead of Barrett with another strong performance in this game despite the strong season Barrett had.

Jones, like Mariota, will lean on the Ohio State rushing Offense to make life easier for himself and that means seeing a lot of Ezekiel Elliot as long as this game remains competitive. Elliot had a mammoth 230 rushing yards against Alabama's vaunted run Defense and set a new Sugar Bowl record in that Play Off Semi Final and won't be intimidated by the Oregon Defensive Line which allows 156 yards per game at 4.2 yards per clip.

Elliot has helped Ohio State produce 262 rushing yards per game at 5.8 yards per carry and he will be leaned on to keep the Buckeyes in third and manageable spots in this game. The Running Back will be buoyed by seeing Florida State run successfully against the Ducks Defensive Line, but Elliot also has to be aware of the fumbles they forced from Dalvin Cook in that game.

If the Running Back is moving the ball effectively on the ground, Cardale Jones will get the chance to attack a Secondary that will still be missing Imo Ekpre-Olomu at Corner Back who is considered their best player in that unit. The Ducks have given up 265 passing yards per game through the air, albeit that number is contributed to by the fact they have big leads and teams need to throw against them.

That should be an area that Jones can exploit having thrown for at least 243 yards in both starts this season against Defenses of the capability of Wisconsin and Alabama, while the Quarter Back also has 4 Touchdown passes and 1 Interception in those two wins. Like Mariota and the Oregon Offense, Jones does need to be aware that he is facing a Defense that had forced 30 turnovers this season as well as picking up 36 Sacks.

This is the ninth time the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes will meet on a football field and it is currently 8-0 to the Buckeyes including a 9 point win in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day 2010.


National Championship Pick: The National Championship Game in College Football looks to be a very competitive one and you can make a real case for either team to actually win the game which is why I have to like the amount of points being given to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Cardale Jones has helped the team not miss a beat since JT Barrett went down with his season ending injury and Jones has already upset the odds twice in games against the Wisconsin Badgers and Alabama Crimson Tide.

The Buckeyes were underdogs in both of those games and Urban Meyer is a Head Coach that continues to thrive in that spot as he has led the Buckeyes to a 5-0 record against the spread when given points. Meyer has all the experience of a two time National Championship winning Head Coach and he should have the Buckeyes ready to go in this one.

Of course you have to have a lot of respect for what Marcus Mariota brings to the table as the Heisman Trophy winner and almost certainly the Number 1 Pick in the NFL Draft coming up in April. The fast paced Offense also wears down Defenses who don't have time to catch their breath and it also causes confusion with Defenders trying to make sure they have the right coverage set.

However, Ohio State's Defense has played well all season and the likes of Michael Bennett and Joey Bosa have created penetration into the backfield that can certainly slow down Offenses. With Devon Allen and Darren Carrington both absent at Receiver, Mariota has to make sure the Receivers stepping up are on the same page as him or turnovers can be a factor against this Ohio State Secondary.

That could be a real key in this game- both teams have created turnovers and have gotten plenty of Sacks, but the Ohio State Defense hasn't been as easy to move the ball against as the Oregon Ducks Defense. The Ducks have allowed over 420 yards per game this season in total Offense and Cardale Jones has shown he has the composure to make big plays along with Ezekiel Elliot at Running Back.

Oregon have been a strong favourite all season, going 10-4 against the spread in that spot, but the Buckeyes do thrive as the underdog and have the Coaching edge. There are also a couple of other trends that will be going against Oregon since 1998 when the BCS National Championship Game was created.

The favourite in the National Championship Game is had won and covered in 6 straight seasons before last season and they have won 7 straight games. However the first trend against Oregon is that teams favoured by 6 or more points in this game are only 2-6 against the spread and they are 3-5 straight up.

The second one is that the Heisman Trophy winner is just 3-5 outright and also just 2-6 against the spread in the National Championship Game since 1998.

Add those two strong trends with the fact that Urban Meyer should have the Coaching edge over Mark Helfrich and Ohio State's strong record against the spread as the underdog and I like taking the points in a game the Buckeyes can certainly win outright.

MY PICK: Ohio State Buckeyes + 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)


Bowl Update10-11, - 1.65 Units (21 Units Staked, - 7.86% Yield)

Week 156-2, + 3.69 Units (8 Units Staked, + 46.13% Yield)
Week 148-7, + 0.47 Units (15 Units Staked, + 3.13% Yield)
Week 137-6, + 0.37 Units (13 Units Staked, + 2.85% Yield)
Week 127-5, + 1.40 Units (12 Units Staked, + 11.67% Yield)
Week 119-4, + 4.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 33.38% Yield)
Week 106-7, - 1.51 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.62% Yield)
Week 94-9-1, - 5.31 Units (14 Units Staked, - 37.93% Yield)
Week 85-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)
Week 73-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)
Week 62-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)
Week 54-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)
Week 46-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Week 33-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)
Week 25-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)
Week 16-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)

Season 201475-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 201365-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 201254-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 201163-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)